Thande
Donor
Caraibas rescued other people from a burning building, so no wonder it's his ideology that does so well.Now, when is someone going to burn down his house?
Look to the West Volume V: To Dream Again
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
Siamese fighting fish, fascinating creatures. Brave but of the whole stupid. Yes they're stupid. Except for the occasional one such as we have here who lets the other two fight. While he waits. Waits until the survivor is so exhausted that he cannot defend himself, and then like the Societists... he strikes!
I don't know what wavelength it puts me on relative to Thande, but I like Raul Caraibas quite a lot.
in the past, forced as we are to either keep a wise silence or speculate wildly on the true nature of 20th/21st century Societism (and the Diversitarians who oppose them) I've indulged some dark theories about the former--that they may perpetuate slavery, that they are hardcore technocrats who favor an inegalitarian hierarchy--though it has always been clear that at any rate they pay lip service if no more to divorcing that hierarchy from inherited privilege and favoring individual merit--which itself taken radically would suggest divorcing children from their families and raising them all equally in creche-barracks of some kind. There is of course the creepy nomenclature, jargon and number-indexed geography paraded before us to make them look creepy and alien.
But really, what is there to object to in the writings of Sanchez that we've seen? What except perhaps for the radical pacifism that, taken to a logical conclusion by Mo Quendling, put this admirable man de facto on the side of maintaining slavery? But then the Meridian state, without the virtue of maintaining peace, de factor supported the slavers too and I felt rather sick about it--for the UPSA has thus far largely led the pack in this ATL of really decent and admirable societies. Not quite in the lead in my humble opinion; the Adamantine parties, insofar as I understand them, seem to be a bit ahead of the curve and thus my enthusiasm for the new Californian republic is partially explained (I have other reasons to like it besides, to be sure). But on the whole the UPSA seemed to occupy a place in the world that had the best virtues of OTL late 18th/19th century revolutionaries and few of the vices--in particular it seemed a somewhat morally cleaner version of the USA of OTL.
So the notion that this once shining republic should perish was a melancholy one to me, but the manner in which it might go astray might well parallel the dark side of the US role in our own world, and so I've been on the look-out for corporate oligarchy (and other, perhaps cruder forms of plutocracy) as well as foreseeing a kind of national chauvinism based on the notion that the UPSA represents human society, perfected, and that all right-thinking people of the world would naturally flock to it, and therefore all opposition must be attributed to some combination of evil malice or dull obstinate stupidity. And I've been watching for these characteristics to accrue to the self-identity of Sanchezism as proclaimed by his epigone acolytes after he is gone--his Stalins and Lysenkos, if you will.
Well perhaps there is still ample time for all of that and worse to happen. But it would seem at this point, on the cusp of the young Caraibas taking the torch from the dying Sanchez, that what Caraibas personally seems to stand for is dead against what I would foresee as the worst danger of moral rot in the UPSA and the best sort of consciousness to renew its virtues.
Now as someone with a lot of sympathy for the Marxist program of OTL, it is frustrating that the Mentians don't seem to be able to get any traction and haul themselves out of their self-generated sectarian mire. But it was always clear enough nothing like the Marxist-Leninist parties of OTL, nor the Second Internationalist parliamentary working-class parties, would come to anything in this timeline.
As a pragmatic alternative, Caraibas seems to have his head screwed on right, with the right priorities and program. Want to persuade people that you have something on the ball? Scrape together your own resources, gather up the people you've helpfully led before, and demonstrate your ideas are good business! Why does he have followers? Not only does he have "charisma," he's gone far out of his way, at risk of life limb and even conscience, to help out the people he is associated with, particularly those "under" him but also with a humane concern for anyone he is associated with. Not everyone appreciates his efforts on their behalf--but that is a good way for him to distinguish friend from foe, wheat from chaff.
I suppose it can all lead to tears and ruin. But my theory has long been that the Societists are more sinned against than sinning, and so far that guess of mine seems right on track.
Perhaps the transformation of UPSA to Combine is not at all the disaster it has been made to appear.
-------
I invite everyone to reflect as well on the framing snippet from Batten-Hale, in the context of the subject of Caraibas and the beginnings of Societism as an active political movement. Perhaps I misread, but our Diversitarian paragon seems rather Scrooge-like and cheap. Shouldn't good activists be worth a nice tandoori meal?
I speak as a former political volunteer quite disappointed that my fellow activists did not seem to have a nice eating place where we could all kick back and gossip together while enjoying a meal. I was quite prepared to buy the food myself of course--but apparently the notion we'd have a nice club staked out for ourselves was a romantic fantasy of the bygone day of the Machines... So yeah, on the handful of times I got some nice food out of the deal, I certainly felt entitled to it! "Do not bind the mouths of the kine who tread the grain," Bes Doradist Batten-Hale! You owe your own perks to them after all.
Caraibas would understand my contempt I think.
in the past, forced as we are to either keep a wise silence or speculate wildly on the true nature of 20th/21st century Societism (and the Diversitarians who oppose them) I've indulged some dark theories about the former--that they may perpetuate slavery, that they are hardcore technocrats who favor an inegalitarian hierarchy--though it has always been clear that at any rate they pay lip service if no more to divorcing that hierarchy from inherited privilege and favoring individual merit--which itself taken radically would suggest divorcing children from their families and raising them all equally in creche-barracks of some kind. There is of course the creepy nomenclature, jargon and number-indexed geography paraded before us to make them look creepy and alien.
But really, what is there to object to in the writings of Sanchez that we've seen? What except perhaps for the radical pacifism that, taken to a logical conclusion by Mo Quendling, put this admirable man de facto on the side of maintaining slavery? But then the Meridian state, without the virtue of maintaining peace, de factor supported the slavers too and I felt rather sick about it--for the UPSA has thus far largely led the pack in this ATL of really decent and admirable societies. Not quite in the lead in my humble opinion; the Adamantine parties, insofar as I understand them, seem to be a bit ahead of the curve and thus my enthusiasm for the new Californian republic is partially explained (I have other reasons to like it besides, to be sure). But on the whole the UPSA seemed to occupy a place in the world that had the best virtues of OTL late 18th/19th century revolutionaries and few of the vices--in particular it seemed a somewhat morally cleaner version of the USA of OTL.
So the notion that this once shining republic should perish was a melancholy one to me, but the manner in which it might go astray might well parallel the dark side of the US role in our own world, and so I've been on the look-out for corporate oligarchy (and other, perhaps cruder forms of plutocracy) as well as foreseeing a kind of national chauvinism based on the notion that the UPSA represents human society, perfected, and that all right-thinking people of the world would naturally flock to it, and therefore all opposition must be attributed to some combination of evil malice or dull obstinate stupidity. And I've been watching for these characteristics to accrue to the self-identity of Sanchezism as proclaimed by his epigone acolytes after he is gone--his Stalins and Lysenkos, if you will.
Well perhaps there is still ample time for all of that and worse to happen. But it would seem at this point, on the cusp of the young Caraibas taking the torch from the dying Sanchez, that what Caraibas personally seems to stand for is dead against what I would foresee as the worst danger of moral rot in the UPSA and the best sort of consciousness to renew its virtues.
Now as someone with a lot of sympathy for the Marxist program of OTL, it is frustrating that the Mentians don't seem to be able to get any traction and haul themselves out of their self-generated sectarian mire. But it was always clear enough nothing like the Marxist-Leninist parties of OTL, nor the Second Internationalist parliamentary working-class parties, would come to anything in this timeline.
As a pragmatic alternative, Caraibas seems to have his head screwed on right, with the right priorities and program. Want to persuade people that you have something on the ball? Scrape together your own resources, gather up the people you've helpfully led before, and demonstrate your ideas are good business! Why does he have followers? Not only does he have "charisma," he's gone far out of his way, at risk of life limb and even conscience, to help out the people he is associated with, particularly those "under" him but also with a humane concern for anyone he is associated with. Not everyone appreciates his efforts on their behalf--but that is a good way for him to distinguish friend from foe, wheat from chaff.
I suppose it can all lead to tears and ruin. But my theory has long been that the Societists are more sinned against than sinning, and so far that guess of mine seems right on track.
Perhaps the transformation of UPSA to Combine is not at all the disaster it has been made to appear.
-------
I invite everyone to reflect as well on the framing snippet from Batten-Hale, in the context of the subject of Caraibas and the beginnings of Societism as an active political movement. Perhaps I misread, but our Diversitarian paragon seems rather Scrooge-like and cheap. Shouldn't good activists be worth a nice tandoori meal?
I speak as a former political volunteer quite disappointed that my fellow activists did not seem to have a nice eating place where we could all kick back and gossip together while enjoying a meal. I was quite prepared to buy the food myself of course--but apparently the notion we'd have a nice club staked out for ourselves was a romantic fantasy of the bygone day of the Machines...
So yeah, on the handful of times I got some nice food out of the deal, I certainly felt entitled to it! "Do not bind the mouths of the kine who tread the grain," Bes Doradist Batten-Hale! You owe your own perks to them after all.Caraibas would understand my contempt I think.
You know, it only just occurred to me ... as many have pointed out, the UPSA certainly has parallels with the real USA, but in many ways I think it bears even more resemblance to the alt-USA from Decades of Darkness.
I agree that Caraibas, for now, seems like a very principled and morally upright leader... but he already has some pretty unappealing traits as well, most notably his tendency to claim that "Sanchez believed this first", presumably when someone raises an objection to his theories. There is already clearly a personality cult developing, which doesn't bode well.
Furthermore, what strikes me about the fall of the UPSA so far is how it is paralleling the course of the Roman Empire as much as the United States. After a large scale and costly but victorious war, both republics are starting to stagnate as wealth disparities increase among the population, bad treatment of the poor and minorities, and the fruits of empire are proving to be corrupting for the ruling class. Enter stage right a group of figures that didn't really feature in the fall of the Russian Empire or the Republic of China - populist figures who are promising to upend the status quo and give the "people" the world. In the long run, these groups are arguably extremely corrosive to a democratic society but that isn't going to be obvious or perhaps even considered important by the people who are supporting these organizations.
While we don't know enough about the period between the early 1870s and the fall of the UPSA, I predict that we will see at least one reformist president elected who tries to cut the populists off but is assassinated/deposed and is replaced by a figurehead who basically is a stooge of the establishment. It will be that event which sends the UPSA on its downward spiral towards totalitarianism as the moderate parties whither into baseless political machines and the streets degenerate into war zones. Its not particularly difficult to see in that scenario how Societism rapidly turns into something very ugly.
teg
In terms of a Roman analogy, Caraibas looks to me like a plebeian Gracchus, or a free (and moderate) Spartacus perhaps.
Did you not mean to type "did" there? How would "upend the status quo and give the 'people' {with or without scare quotes} the world" not be a true description of the proclaimed intent and program of the Russian Social Democrats from which the Bolsheviks branched, or the Chinese Communist Party of Mao? The scare quotes suggest bad faith, incompetence, or historical tragedy, but what else would you say was the agenda of the Leninist parties, if not that?
Technically they come from stage left of course. ITTL there is no "left-right" polarization. I would say Cariabas is clearly "cobrist" in the TL's metallic spectrum. Wouldn't you?
"Corrosive" in reactionary polemics, certainly, if you mean to say any such group in any context would be inherently bad. It's an argument, but a conservative one at best. In a healthy, functioning democracy, it is hard to see how one could sweepingly say any such movement must be bad on the face of it; it could be vitally needed reform. The Gracchi certainly thought so; Spartacus didn't care to preserve the Roman system but what he sought to replace it with seems inherently better to me (if utterly Utopian and unrealizable at the time). The Leninists and Maoists had no intention to compromise and that's arguably bad--depending on whether Romanov Russia or Nationalist/Japanese occupied China had any potentials for peaceful reform for mutual benefit of all classes, which I leave as an exercise for other threads. I'd suggest Euro-Communists and other extreme leftist radicals in functional democratic societies hve posed a bracing, astringent ideological challenge that probably helps to hold corruption at bay, and out of far left, revolutionary movements figures have emerged willing and able to help develop workable and good compromises. (Whether they are thus traitors to a more sweeping and more beneficial reform is another deep polemical question).
So no, I don't see Cariabas as inherently "corrosive" to the UPSA. Exactly as it stands and is headed now he's a stern opponent--of change in a bad direction. At this point though he's a perfectly fine advocate of the republic's best founding principles, and reform along the lines he is pushing for would clearly be a good thing for most everyone. After all, when working for his greedy bosses he delivered productivity with safety--the only problem from their point of view was that they were counting on a high death rate to take them off the hook of the terms they'd offered their workers when hiring them. So he "cheated" them out of a category of profit they shouldn't have been entitled to, and compensated with legitimate profit that benefited everyone. Just not quite at the double-helping rate his bosses wanted, just for them, at the cost of lives.
Is that corrosion? It looks more like correction to me. I suppose it depends on one's point of view.
Why would a reformist necessarily be opposed to Cariabas and his movement? It is probable of course that elites will seek to preserve their position and extend it. Co-option rather than opposition seems the bigger danger to real reform, but if the grassroots reformists are active and conscious enough, it can cut both ways.
Whether Societism does in fact turn into something very ugly, or even ugly at all, is the question. Coming out of roots like this, the notion that it is headed for something terrible seems more and more dubious to me. If that is where it goes, the wrong turning has not been reached yet anyway.
Caraibas' mentor Captain Pineda...
Went on in later life to develop that world famous (sometimes not so) soft drink Pineda Cola.
Went on in later life to develop that world famous (sometimes not so) soft drink Pineda Cola.
Well, Sanchez is definitely the Marx, but Carabias doesn't have a precise parallel. He's the man inserting detail into the ideas of the founder and suggesting how they'll connect to the real world. That places him more as an Engels. But then he is getting into the gritty practicality and assuming power. So maybe for accuracy we could say he's some sort of Engels/Lenin cross.
Wow. Really? I can't help but disagree.
Quite. It's large, and going through quick, unplanned growth with unfortunate historical consequences, okay.
Otherwise, though, they seem remarkably different. Except narratively, I suppose, as "bad guys who will win".
Well, just like the DoD USA, the UPSA controls Chile, Bolivia, Southeastern Brazil, Tierra del Fuego, the Falklands, Peru, southeastern US and some parts of the Carribean (some of these territories directly, some indirectly). But I don't think that's what CaptainCrowbar meant.
Ah! Finally, it's starting! Societism is rising at last! (After eight years of this timeline having been in existence!)
I like the reference to St. Paul. I was a bit miffed when I first read the Bible and concluded that most of the doctrines and theology that defines Christianity are not recorded in the Bible as being Jesus' words in the Gospels as much as they are recorded as Paul's writings in the Epistles.
Also, I think you guys are making a mistake when you try to model Sanchez too closely on Marx. Thande is not that big on analogies, instead preferring to create new lines of story rather than tit-for-tat parallelisms.
I like the reference to St. Paul. I was a bit miffed when I first read the Bible and concluded that most of the doctrines and theology that defines Christianity are not recorded in the Bible as being Jesus' words in the Gospels as much as they are recorded as Paul's writings in the Epistles.
Also, I think you guys are making a mistake when you try to model Sanchez too closely on Marx. Thande is not that big on analogies, instead preferring to create new lines of story rather than tit-for-tat parallelisms.
It's certainly the obvious comparison to make. If not now, then eventually - once he's in power.
It'll be interesting to see if he will be part of the Pandoran War, or just laying the groundwork for it. If there isn't a military conflict in the Meridian heartland, he'll have a dramatically different situation to work with than Lenin did.
Indeed.
Pandoric war is late 90s, when Carabais would be in his 60s - a bit old to lead a revolution, at least as it is just starting. It might be younger (and more radical) men who are actually running the show - he might be reduced to the role of Old Guard or at best Guru of the Revolution. Possibly he dies before he sees the Promised Land (thereby avoiding being a challenge to the New Order).
Does Thande say specifically when the Meridian Revolution will happen? I believe all we got was "late nineteenth century" from Thande.
My impression was that it was triggered by the Pandoric war ("shouldn't have opened that box!"), but I may be way off.
First and foremost, huzzah all around for my favourite timeline's return, and for the most excellent news that the boys at SeaLion will be putting out an official compiled version at long last. Having jury rigged my own from compiling each volume into seperate docs with whatever images remained canon through the threads, this is a terrific development. Reading this monster of a TL 4 times in the last 4 years (studies be damned), a final version to refer to is a blessing.
That said, have a series of questions/half baseless speculations to post, and please do forgive the lack of direct quotes from other posts, forced browsing of AH.com on a phone leaves stylistic niceties somewhat lacking.
The countdown to the Pandoric war seems to be ticking away with Raúl Caraíbas entering the scene. Though with his almost reasonable sounding beliefs (perhaps it's the methods of application that will condemn Societism), it seems credible to think that the Societists might actually be voted into power at the end of the Pandoric war (if the other two parties are sufficiently discredited). Though perhaps a Bolshevik style coup in parliament if the other party's at some point storm out before ending a session might ensue instead.
On the coming Pandoric war, the references to a ticking time bomb in the Americas likely mean New Spain is going to be dismembered. The question is how badly, and by whom. The ENA and UPSA seem like the most likely candidates, but considering that Californa is an added wild card, it's up in the air. Perhaps it will even survive in part, as Mexico in particular has to be benefitting from competent governance compared to OTL (though it may be reduced to the size of present day Mexico between the ENA and California). The New Orleans free state might even cut off a slice (speaking of which, was it ever settled whether New Orleans is just a city state, or the capital of the surrounding Louisiana free state)?
On more general questions and comments for Thande, they are as follows. Firstly, love the Bad Dudes reference in part 213, and there appears to be a typo in the footnotes of part 212, you have a footnote 3 numbered twice as opposed to a footnote 2 then 3. Is the naming controversy over the proper name for TTL Mt.St Helen's just another example of Diversitarian politicking, or is it a reference to the renaming controversy of Mt. McKinley/Denali this past year?
The reference made in part 214 to Old world Societists being in part more influenced by an anarchist understanding then the New World Orthodox ones, is that a Spanish Civil War/Republican Spain reference in the offing? With the UPSA playing the role of Stalinist Societ Russia, either discouraging or actively purging such understandings and their adherents as circumstances dictate? And while we're on the topic of Societists, could you shed any light on their numbering scheme or is it still too early? Considering that we have Zone14 for Chile, Zone13 for Peru, and Zone7 for Indonesia, but Societism first rose in South America, why the counterintuitive numbering? Wouldn't the core provinces of the UPSA get the lowest numbers first, then have them rise as Societism spread across the Hermanidad?
Two final queries. Firstly, is Malta part of the Tyrennian League in the present day of TTL, or doing its own thing? I recall that the Update featuring the Ottoman navy and the Euxine war mentioned someone coming along and reforming the old Knights of St.John as well. Considering that passing reference has been made to someone setting up an extensive hospital system in Bavaria, are the last surviving order of crusaders due to return to continental Europe from their island fortress in a near future update?
Lastly, and do forgive the question, but with the Super Bowl approaching I have to wonder what if anything is that state of American style football in LTTW? Has it simply never split off from Rugby due to the popularity of other sports, or is it still gestating at the college level? Hell, considering the fact that the confederation of Cygnia exists, will it eventually emerge over there as an analogue to OTL's Australian rules football?
As always though, capital work, I eagerly await the next post.
That said, have a series of questions/half baseless speculations to post, and please do forgive the lack of direct quotes from other posts, forced browsing of AH.com on a phone leaves stylistic niceties somewhat lacking.
The countdown to the Pandoric war seems to be ticking away with Raúl Caraíbas entering the scene. Though with his almost reasonable sounding beliefs (perhaps it's the methods of application that will condemn Societism), it seems credible to think that the Societists might actually be voted into power at the end of the Pandoric war (if the other two parties are sufficiently discredited). Though perhaps a Bolshevik style coup in parliament if the other party's at some point storm out before ending a session might ensue instead.
On the coming Pandoric war, the references to a ticking time bomb in the Americas likely mean New Spain is going to be dismembered. The question is how badly, and by whom. The ENA and UPSA seem like the most likely candidates, but considering that Californa is an added wild card, it's up in the air. Perhaps it will even survive in part, as Mexico in particular has to be benefitting from competent governance compared to OTL (though it may be reduced to the size of present day Mexico between the ENA and California). The New Orleans free state might even cut off a slice (speaking of which, was it ever settled whether New Orleans is just a city state, or the capital of the surrounding Louisiana free state)?
On more general questions and comments for Thande, they are as follows. Firstly, love the Bad Dudes reference in part 213, and there appears to be a typo in the footnotes of part 212, you have a footnote 3 numbered twice as opposed to a footnote 2 then 3. Is the naming controversy over the proper name for TTL Mt.St Helen's just another example of Diversitarian politicking, or is it a reference to the renaming controversy of Mt. McKinley/Denali this past year?
The reference made in part 214 to Old world Societists being in part more influenced by an anarchist understanding then the New World Orthodox ones, is that a Spanish Civil War/Republican Spain reference in the offing? With the UPSA playing the role of Stalinist Societ Russia, either discouraging or actively purging such understandings and their adherents as circumstances dictate? And while we're on the topic of Societists, could you shed any light on their numbering scheme or is it still too early? Considering that we have Zone14 for Chile, Zone13 for Peru, and Zone7 for Indonesia, but Societism first rose in South America, why the counterintuitive numbering? Wouldn't the core provinces of the UPSA get the lowest numbers first, then have them rise as Societism spread across the Hermanidad?
Two final queries. Firstly, is Malta part of the Tyrennian League in the present day of TTL, or doing its own thing? I recall that the Update featuring the Ottoman navy and the Euxine war mentioned someone coming along and reforming the old Knights of St.John as well. Considering that passing reference has been made to someone setting up an extensive hospital system in Bavaria, are the last surviving order of crusaders due to return to continental Europe from their island fortress in a near future update?
Lastly, and do forgive the question, but with the Super Bowl approaching I have to wonder what if anything is that state of American style football in LTTW? Has it simply never split off from Rugby due to the popularity of other sports, or is it still gestating at the college level? Hell, considering the fact that the confederation of Cygnia exists, will it eventually emerge over there as an analogue to OTL's Australian rules football?
As always though, capital work, I eagerly await the next post.
Not if the Zones system is first tested and introduced in the periphery of the UPSA world power.
You forgot the Teutonic Knights.
Out of curiousity, do we even know if it's going to be a "revolution"? After all, there is a Societist Party now in the UPSA, I'd see it being entirely possible (and perhaps going against the trope of the "evil ideology" coming to power after a revolution) for the Societists to get elected into power, and then proceed to do exactly what Caraibas has been saying they'll do. Like annexing the states of the Hermandad (which I'm still curious about said alliance and how entities like the Nusantaran sultanates, Portuguese East Africa, etc are associated, if at all), renaming, etc.