OTL Election maps resources thread

The Protestant middle class in and around Belfast is basically where all of their support comes from.

So, cosmopolitan post-materialists who can't be arsed about the identity conflict? I wonder if their votes would originally be Anglicans as opposed to Presbiterians. After all, even the divisions within Unionism are religious too.
 
It seems that this is the general rule in Ireland for some reason. If one of your ancestors was Taoiseach, you have to at least be some sort of elected representative. I believe Dev's had three generations of descendants in the Cabinet, or something to that effect.

Sean Haughey is doubly interesting insofar as he started out as a Senator, then became a TD and junior minister, lost his seat in 2011, and then became a local councillor. It's like the stereotypical party hack's career in reverse.
 
As 1916 turned to 1917, the war entered its third year with no end in sight. The frontlines in Flanders, Champagne, Galicia and East Prussia had more or less stayed still for that whole time, and young men blew their lives out in the trenches for the sake of their country's pride at rates almost higher than could be sustained.

Sweden did not take part in the war, but so many other countries did that it was impossible to avoid its repercussions. Foreign trade was cut off, and the country starved. Prime Minister Hammarskjöld, whose "temporary" government ended up staying in office for three years, viewed the defence of the realm as his first priority, and all the nation's resources went to the army first. While the parliamentary Liberals and Social Democrats had bound themselves to the "defence first" policy for the duration of the war, this did not mean they failed to criticise it in the public discourse. The "armed poorhouse" became a common term, and it was felt that Hammarskjöld went too far in his acquiescence to the army leadership. Norway and Denmark were also neutral, after all, and yet they seemed to be doing alright for themselves.

Hammarskjöld stayed intransigent though. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Knut Wallenberg, sent his brother Marcus to London in January to negotiate a trade deal with the British. His results were fruitful, but Hammarskjöld refused to countenance a deal with the British, leading some to accuse him of a pro-German bias. The resulting rift between the Prime Minister and the Foreign Affairs Minister eventually led to Hammarskjöld tending his resignation in late March, and a new government was appointed, led by Conservative grandee, philanthropist, former finance minister and Chancellor of the Universities, Carl Swartz. Swartz was much more personally popular than Hammarskjöld had ever been, and it was hoped that the government would weather the autumn elections and stay in office. But then, events overtook them.

In February of 1917, the Russian monarchy was overthrown. The Provisional Government that replaced it vowed to stay in the war, but the country had been thrown into such chaos that it would very soon be physically unable to, and the broad left increased its agitation throughout the country. In April, a revolutionary theorist and agitator by the name of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin uprooted from his exile in Switzerland, and after being granted passage by the German government, travelled by train to Copenhagen, by ferry to Malmö and then by train across the length of Sweden and into Finland, from where he was able to reach Saint Petersburg. Meanwhile, the mood in Sweden was rising to a fever pitch. Food riots were a common occurrence through the spring, and while Swartz handled the situation well enough to avoid a full-on revolution, his efforts did not manage to stave off discontent, or for that matter to produce any more food.

The Social Democratic Party had held its party congress in February, and it was perhaps the most tumultuous one yet. The party found itself split down the middle, between on one hand the majority opinion who backed Hjalmar Branting and his pact with the other parties, and on the other hand the minority opinion (made up chiefly of the youth league and the northern branches of the party) who wanted to use the chaotic situation to produce a Swedish revolution. The leadership tried to enforce a gag rule against the youth league, which led the latter to secede from the party altogether, and at its own congress in May, the new "Social Democratic Left Party" (Sveriges socialdemokratiska vänsterparti, SSV) was created. This marked the first time that a force had existed to the left of the Social Democrats, and most of the internal left opposition joined it.

The right was not without fractures of its own - the Farmers' League, which had been founded in 1913 as a pressure group within the Conservative party, decided to stand for election in its own right. They were joined by the National League of Agrarians, a group similar enough in its goals that I can only assume they were divided by personalities rather than ideas (a notion that would be confirmed by the fact that they merged within a decade). In addition to the new parties, the election was marked by the continued growth of the Social Democrats and by a slight resurgence for the Liberals, and the Conservatives found themselves the smallest of the "big three". In spite of this, the King gave his continued support to Prime Minister Swartz and his government, until the latter's son was caught up in a black-marketeering scandal that forced him to resign. In his place, the King grudgingly appointed a left-wing coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats under the Liberal leader, Nils Edén, and with Hjalmar Branting as Minister for Finance. Yes, many things had indeed changed since 1914...

val-1917.png


1911
1914 (March)
1914 (Sep)
 
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As 1916 turned to 1917, the war entered its third year with no end in sight. The frontlines in Flanders, Champagne, Galicia and East Prussia had more or less stayed still for that whole time, and young men blew their lives out in the trenches for the sake of their country's pride at rates almost higher than could be sustained.

Sweden did not take part in the war, but so many other countries did that it was impossible to avoid its repercussions. Foreign trade was cut off, and the country starved. Prime Minister Hammarskjöld, whose "temporary" government ended up staying in office for three years, viewed the defence of the realm as his first priority, and all the nation's resources went to the army first. While the parliamentary Liberals and Social Democrats had bound themselves to the "defence first" policy for the duration of the war, this did not mean they failed to criticise it in the public discourse. The "armed poorhouse" became a common term, and it was felt that Hammarskjöld went too far in his acquiescence to the army leadership. Norway and Denmark were also neutral, after all, and yet they seemed to be doing alright for themselves.

Hammarskjöld stayed intransigent though. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Knut Wallenberg, sent his brother Marcus to London in January to negotiate a trade deal with the British. His results were fruitful, but Hammarskjöld refused to countenance a deal with the British, leading some to accuse him of a pro-German bias. The resulting rift between the Prime Minister and the Foreign Affairs Minister eventually led to Hammarskjöld tending his resignation in late March, and a new government was appointed, led by Conservative grandee, philanthropist, former finance minister and Chancellor of the Universities, Carl Swartz. Swartz was much more personally popular than Hammarskjöld had ever been, and it was hoped that the government would weather the autumn elections and stay in office. But then, events overtook them.

In February of 1917, the Russian monarchy was overthrown. The Provisional Government that replaced it vowed to stay in the war, but the country had been thrown into such chaos that it would very soon be physically unable to, and the broad left increased its agitation throughout the country. In April, a revolutionary theorist and agitator by the name of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin uprooted from his exile in Switzerland, and after being granted passage by the German government, travelled by train to Copenhagen, by ferry to Malmö and then by train across the length of Sweden and into Finland, from where he was able to reach Saint Petersburg. Meanwhile, the mood in Sweden was rising to a fever pitch. Food riots were a common occurrence through the spring, and while Swartz handled the situation well enough to avoid a full-on revolution, his efforts did not manage to stave off discontent, or for that matter to produce any more food.

The Social Democratic Party had held its party congress in February, and it was perhaps the most tumultuous one yet. The party found itself split down the middle, between on one hand the majority opinion who backed Hjalmar Branting and his pact with the other parties, and on the other hand the minority opinion (made up chiefly of the youth league and the northern branches of the party) who wanted to use the chaotic situation to produce a Swedish revolution. The leadership tried to enforce a gag rule against the youth league, which led the latter to secede from the party altogether, and at its own congress in May, the new "Social Democratic Left Party" (Sveriges socialdemokratiska vänsterparti, SSV) was created. This marked the first time that a force had existed to the left of the Social Democrats, and most of the internal left opposition joined it.

The right was not without fractures of its own - the Farmers' League, which had been founded in 1913 as a pressure group within the Conservative party, decided to stand for election in its own right. They were joined by the National League of Agrarians, a group similar enough in its goals that I can only assume they were divided by personalities rather than ideas (a notion that would be confirmed by the fact that they merged within a decade). In addition to the new parties, the election was marked by the continued growth of the Social Democrats and by a slight resurgence for the Liberals, and the Conservatives found themselves the smallest of the "big three". In spite of this, the King gave his continued support to Prime Minister Swartz and his government, until the latter's son was caught up in a black-marketeering scandal that forced him to resign. In his place, the King grudgingly appointed a left-wing coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats under the Liberal leader, Nils Edén, and with Hjalmar Branting as Minister for Finance. Yes, many things had indeed changed since 1914...

1911
1914 (March)
1914 (Sep)

Which is the district with a NLA plurality? BTW, u gr8.
 
None in 1917, I just added their colour because... well, for some reason.

Duly noted. An interesting "side effect" of these map series is that we so clearly see Stockholm's annexation policies going on, of course culminating in that awkward situation with Järva.
 
I thought I'd have a go at a quick visual representation of the rapid decline of Fianna Fail in Ireland. Originally, I flirted with majority-shading, but as it's STV, I decided to be lazy and just show winners.

So here's the Irish general election of 2007. Fianna Fail had always (well, since the 1930s) been the natural party of government, with Inter-Party Governments cropping up from time to time when voter fatigue lost Fianna Fail their majority. Since the 1980s, these anti-FF coalitions have become more popular, but going in to the 2007 election, Fianna Fail had been in power for ten years on the trot (albeit in coalition with some small parties).

It's worth marvelling here at what separates the two main parties in Ireland. You see, at the end of the Irish War of Independence in 1921, some of the pro-Independence party Sinn Fein were opposed to signing a peace treaty with the British and some weren't. Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein walked out and set up their own party under Eamonn De Valera, which gradually turned into Fianna Fail. Later on, it signed a peace treaty with the British and some really anti-Treaty members walked out and called themselves Sinn Fein. This has happened at least four dozen times in Irish political history, but we won't deal with that here. Anyway, the Pro-Treaty faction mutated into Fine Gael, the main opposition party. There is virtually nothing in terms of policy to divide FF and FG, except FG might be slightly more socially conservative if you squint. FF has a reputation for mild corruption, which is par for the course if you have to actively struggle not to get re-elected. Usually (read 'always') Fine Gael-led coalitions involve a deal with the Labour Party , which, unlike their British counterpart, is almost vestigial, and really only exists because the system of STV has kept it in the Dail for so long. It was led at this time by a an with the most Irish name in history: Pat Rabbitte. He was a former member of Democratic Left, a democratic socialist party which split off from, and then folded into, Labour. Despite this, Rabbitte had organised a transfer pact with Fine Gael, which explains why so many constituencies with FG Teachtai Dala also elected Labourites and only three constituencies without Fine Gael members. Also lining up against the Fianna Fail-led Government were the Greens (purple on the map because here are so many parties using green) who heavily hinted that it was time for a change at the top. Filling in the rest of the Dail were Sinn Fein, the leftist descendants of the anti-anti-treaty faction; and the Progressive Democrats, a classically liberal party that was in semi-permanent coalition with Fianna Fail, and, not entirely coincidentally, also on it's deathbed. Among the minor parties were the Socialist Party, which lost its only TD, and the Fathers' Rights Party, which was depressingly ahead of its time.

Shortly after the election, the Credit Crunch started to chase down the Celtic Tiger.

Ireland 2007.png

Ireland 2007.png
 
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Thande

Donor
Nice work - my only criticism would be that you've got a bit of antialiasing on the zoomed-in Dublin inset. I tried doing a RoI map with majority shading once before and it ended up more pastel than Star Trek: The Motion Picture so I gave up.

In UNRELATED MUSINGS, this whole multi-member constituency drawing lark is harder than it looks...
 
Nice work - my only criticism would be that you've got a bit of antialiasing on the zoomed-in Dublin inset. I tried doing a RoI map with majority shading once before and it ended up more pastel than Star Trek: The Motion Picture so I gave up.

In UNRELATED MUSINGS, this whole multi-member constituency drawing lark is harder than it looks...

Oh, this sounds interesting.

And nice work UM, Ireland's one of those cases which kind of proves wrong the whole 'PR supports multi-party democracy' argument.
 
Oh, this sounds interesting.

And nice work UM, Ireland's one of those cases which kind of proves wrong the whole 'PR supports multi-party democracy' argument.
Eh, it's generally been more multi-party than the UK or Canada (and definitely America). Malta or Greece would be better examples.
 

Wait: the Social Democrats got a plurality of seats in northern City of Stockholm seat while losing in voteshare to the Right? WTH?
 
Wait: the Social Democrats got a plurality of seats in northern City of Stockholm seat while losing in voteshare to the Right? WTH?

I don't know how it works, but that happened a number of times under this system. I can tell you it's not an error on my part - I did double-check.
 
I don't know how it works, but that happened a number of times under this system. I can tell you it's not an error on my part - I did double-check.

I believe you. That district electing any Social Democrats at all is funny in itself and this doesn't help.
 
Oh, this sounds interesting.

And nice work UM, Ireland's one of those cases which kind of proves wrong the whole 'PR supports multi-party democracy' argument.

See below.

After the 2007 election, Fianna Fail formed a coalition with the Greens (who had previously taken an anti-FF stance), a group of independents and the rump of the Progressive Democrats, who were in the process of winding up even before the election, with both of their TDs continuing as independents, and one of them continuing as Minister of Health. In 2008, Bertie Ahern resigned as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) after a year of storminess as he was shown to have accepted untoward payments and lied to the Mahon Tribunal. He was followed by his Finance Minister, Brian Cowen, who is known as "the worst Taoiseach in the history of the state".

The Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was seen as an indictment of Cowen's Government, which had been pushing it through, despite the fact that Cowen himself admitted to not having read it. A desperate second referendum was held in 2009 because the electorate had given the wrong answer to the question of sovereignty. But by that time, the disastrous 2009 Budget had caused its share of embarassment in reaction to the global financial crisis, as it included a vast mass of unpopular measures, such as ending the cervical cancer vaccination programme and withdrawing medical cards. Budget after Budget was pushed though the Dail over the next few years, each one more austere than the last, as it became apparent that loans were going bad and Ireland was pretty much insolvent. In 2010, Fianna Fail cut the social welfare budget for the first time since 1924.

To cut a long story short, Cowen narrowly survived two no-confidence motions and a fair few cabinet resignations before resigning as Taoiseach and calling an election when his approval ratings hit 8%.

Fianna Fail, the face of corruption and economic mismanagement, were over, beaten down to third, despite leader Michael Martin's relative freshness and introduction of TV debates. Fine Gael were the big winners, gaining 25 seats simply by dint of not being Fianna Fail. But in 2011, the old two-party duopoly was blown open, as Labour overtook Fianna Fail as well, in the best result ever in their history. It doesn't look as if they will maintain many seats in the next elections, but it was fun while it lasted. Sinn Fein gained 10 seats, putting them only 6 behind their old friends Fianna Fail in the start of a very good patch for them (they have topped some of the polls some of the time). And finally, the United Left Alliance (formed of the Socialist Party, the People Before Profit Alliance, and the Workers and Unemployed Action Group, the first two of which also stand in NI) which stopped being Allied almost immediately after the election.

Finally, the Green Party, formerly doing quite well for itself, lost out big time due to the effects of being in coalition with the least popular leader Ireland has ever had (maybe apart from King Billy). An anti-coalition splinter off of the Greens, called Fis Nua (New Vision) stood six candidates, all unsuccessful. Funny story: an unrelated group of independents coincidentally called themselves 'New Vision'! Yeah, bit of a funny story.

Here's the map, with minimal antialiasing. Notice that while Fianna Fail had a TD in every constituency in 2007 and won most of them on voteshare, they didn't win a single constituency in 2011.

Ireland 2011.png

Ireland 2011.png
 
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Thande

Donor
Good work U's M.

The next Irish election is going to be interesting - though given my point about how a lot of their trends seem to be following ours, presumably Fine Gael will unexpectedly win a majority on their own...
 
Good work U's M.

The next Irish election is going to be interesting - though given my point about how a lot of their trends seem to be following ours, presumably Fine Gael will unexpectedly win a majority on their own...
And inevitably coalition with Labour yet again because they both know no other way. :p
 
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