The Best Offense is a Good Defense: The Japanese Defense of the Mariana Islands

[AbeLincoln1865]

The Best Offense is a Good Defense

The Japanese Defense of the Mariana Islands

The modern history of the Marianas begins with their involvement in the Spanish-American War. The islands only
played a brief and peripheral role in the conflict but the map of the region was altered forever. The United States
took control of the southernmost island of Guam and the Philippines, while Spain sold the remaining islands to
Germany. Economic development of the northern islands was accelerated by the Germans only to be interrupted
by World War I. Japan took advantage of it’s alliance with Great Britain to seize the Marianas and the German-
leased Chinese port of Tsingtao. The islands remained peaceful after the Japanese invasion except for the
beaching[1] of the German cruiser SMS Cormoran on Guam after the United States entered the war.

August 28 1914, Heligoland Bight, The North Sea, The SMS Mainz
Leutnant zur See Paul Wenneker watched in agitation as more shells hit his boat. It wasn’t his ship of course but
with Captain Pasche dead it might as well have been. It was times like this he wished he was still at his home town
of Kiel, serving in the Baltic. That thought provided him some comfort before a British shell made the point moot.[2]

[1] In reality the ship was blown up, not beached, a minor change which will have interesting repercussions down the line.

[2] This is the same Paul Wenneker who was the German Naval Attaché to Japan during WWII.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

December 5 1940, The German Embassy in Tokyo
German Naval Attaché to Japan, Kapitän zur See Adalbert Zuckschwerdt[1] studied the
documents given to him by Captain Rogge of the Atlantis. Back in November, Rogge's
merchant raider had captured the British cargo liner SS Automedon. On the boat were
documents in a green bag marked "Safe Hand – British Master Only". As Zuckschwerdt
continued to peruse the documents he began preparing a summary for Berlin by telegraph...

The importance of the SS Automedon documents cannot be understated. In addition to providing valuable intelligence for the invasion of Malaya and the
Dutch East Indies, it also raised the profile of Adalbert Zuckschwerdt. This would come in handy for the Japanese during planning for the invasion of Guam...

[1] This is same Adalbert Zuckschwerdt who was the captain of the SMS Cormoran.

 

[Ryuise]

U haz me intrigued. Reading from the sidelines.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

I'm sorry I haven't been posting any updates. The next one is coming soon. In the meantime what do you guys think of the timeline so far?

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

November 11 1941, The Marine Barracks on the Orote Peninsula, Guam
“How’s it feel to be back on Guam, Captain?” asked Governor McMillin. Kapitän Zuckschwerdt
took a moment to respond. His mind was on other things, not the least of which was his mission
here. Three days prior he had been approached by Vice and Rear Admiral Shigeyoshi Inoue and
Aritomo Goto as well as Major General Tomitaro Horii. They had explained that Japan was preparing
for an attack against the United States and Britain. One of the many objectives of the offensive was
the island of Guam. Inoue and Goto had been assigned to escort Horii’s invasion force for the operation.
Because of Zuckschwerdt’s previous history on Guam and his diplomatic status he was the perfect spy
to gather intelligence. The plan was for him to visit on Armistice Day and report back to the Japanese
the state of American preparedness and fortifications. Zuckschwerdt was reluctant to undertake the
assignment but he had rationalized it by telling himself it would help keep casualties low. If it helped
the Japanese kick the British out of the Far East, Germany would only stand to benefit. Who knew,
maybe Japan would repay the favor and hand back the Marianas to Berlin. During his visit, Zuckschwerdt
took note of the absence of preparations by the Americans. This was not for lack of trying, but ironically
out of a Congressional desire at avoiding a confrontation with Japan. Evidently Congress had come
around somewhat, judging by the ongoing construction of an airfield west of the Marine Barracks[1].
Three days later he met with Horii and the Admirals at Iwakuni Naval Air Base. As the four of them
reviewed the invasion plan, Zuckschwerdt recommended a major alteration. In order to maintain the
element of surprise and keep down civilian casualties, he suggested the pre-invasion air raids be
cancelled. Both Horii and the Admirals were reluctant to make the change because of the airfield
on Orote. Zuckschwerdt was able to convince them by noting that construction would not be
completed before December. With everything finalized all that remained was the invasion itself.

[1] Congress did come around historically but airfield construction on Orote did not start until after the Japanese occupation.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Any thoughts?

 

[Zheng He]

Fun so far

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

With the cancellation of the air raids, the aptly named 18th Naval Air Group and it’s 18
planes were reassigned from Saipan to attack Wake Island. The 18th was able to shoot
down 4 of the 12 Marine aircraft stationed on Wake, with the rest destroyed on the ground
by the other bombers. Without air support the Marines stationed on the island were forced
to suffer as the Japanese bombed the island at will. The Japanese invasion on December
11 forced the Americans to surrender, but not before more than half of the 450 man invasion
force were declared casualties. Meanwhile on Guam, Governor McMillin received a war warning
message on December 4. Other than evacuating the two remaining military dependents, he took
no further preparations. As a result, numerous classified documents were captured by the Japanese
instead of being burned which proved useful during the Philippines Campaign and defense of the
Marianas[1]. The actual capture of Guam was fairly uneventful with no casualties on either side.
The effect it had on Kapitän Zuckschwerdt’s prestige was incalculable. A few days before he had
been an obscure Naval Attaché. Now, with Germany in the war he was seen as a symbol of German-
Japanese cooperation. Little did he know he would play one last role in the history of the Marianas…

[1] McMillin did receive a war warning on December 4, but he did not evacuate the two remaining dependents
who were eventually repatriated. In actuality, the classified documents were burned unlike in this timeline.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Hey guys sorry about the lack of updates. Don't worry the next one will come before the heat death of the universe. In the meantime, I was hoping for some more input. I don't mind any criticism as long as it's constructive.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Still no comments?

 

[Raunchel]

This isn't a subject that I know a lot about, but it does seem to be working up to a real struggle for the islands, and I will certainly follow this.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Interesting!

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

April 12 1942, The German Embassy in Tokyo

“Congratulations, Admiral!” Adalbert Zuckschwerdt smiled as he shook the
hand of Foreign Minister Shigenori Togo. After months of negotiation Japan
had agreed to hand over the Mariana island of Rota to Germany. The transfer
came with guarantees of Japanese property rights as well as freedom of travel
to the other islands and vice versa. Actual implementation would be limited until
the end of the war. Zuckschwerdt had been hoping to acquire at least one more of
the other islands, but Saipan and Tinian were too interconnected and Guam was too
valuable. Besides, it had never been German anyway unlike the rest of the Marianas.
Still, as the driving force behind the agreement this was a personal triumph. Being made
a member of the Order of the Rising Sun, 1st Class, was just the icing on the cake. Coming
off his promotion to Konteradmiral after the Guam operation, this was a time to celebrate
to say the least. Six days later, American bombers would permanently darken his mood.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Sorry it took me forever to come back to this guys. I was hoping to ask for some help with the next chapter. Do any of you guys know of some easy POD's that would allow the Japanese to win the Battle of the Admin Box?

 

[TFSmith121]

Two things:

1) Guam was an insular possesion of the US, governed (as you note) by the USN, which means the Navy controls all entrance and departure from the island, which means at a time when the US is in what amounts to an undeclared war with Germany in the Atlantic (where the USN is in the forefront) there's very little liklihood a German national and former naval officer (diplomat or no, much less one credentialled in Tokyo) is going to be allowed to visit the territory.

2) If Captain McMillin and his staff were, in fact, bright enough to destroy their classified material in historical 1941, why are they suddenly not able to do so in your version?

3) Given the correlation of forces in India-Burma by 1944, as witness the historical outcomes of Imphal-Kohima etc, hard to see the Japanese managing a victory on the offensive, even earlier in the year. Absolute air supremacy (and armor, and artillery, for that matter) on the part of the Allies tended to overcome any edge the IJA infantry had, if they even did by 1944...

Best,

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

1) Guam was an insular possesion of the US, governed (as you note) by the USN, which means the Navy controls all entrance and departure from the island, which means at a time when the US is in what amounts to an undeclared war with Germany in the Atlantic (where the USN is in the forefront) there's very little liklihood a German national and former naval officer (diplomat or no, much less one credentialled in Tokyo) is going to be allowed to visit the territory.

2) If Captain McMillin and his staff were, in fact, bright enough to destroy their classified material in historical 1941, why are they suddenly not able to do so in your version?

3) Given the correlation of forces in India-Burma by 1944, as witness the historical outcomes of Imphal-Kohima etc, hard to see the Japanese managing a victory on the offensive, even earlier in the year. Absolute air supremacy (and armor, and artillery, for that matter) on the part of the Allies tended to overcome any edge the IJA infantry had, if they even did by 1944...

Best,

1) Well, Zuckschwerdt had already been to Guam back in 1917 as mentioned earlier in the timeline. In addition, it was Armistice Day.

2) The lack of air raids and butterflies.

3) I personally disagree. After all they were able to surround the 7th Indian Division and almost killed their commander Frank Messervy.

 

[TFSmith121]

1917 and 1941 were two different times, however;

1) Well, Zuckschwerdt had already been to Guam back in 1917 as mentioned earlier in the timeline. In addition, it was Armistice Day.

2) The lack of air raids and butterflies.

3) I personally disagree. After all they were able to surround the 7th Indian Division and almost killed their commander Frank Messervy.

1) 1917 and 1941 were two different times, however; and Cormoran II had arrived in Guam in 1914 and been interned there until the US entry into the war in 1917, at which point she was scuttled and the Germans treated as POWs. Doesn't seem like much of a parallel.

2) Okay, so they ignore the basic requirement of an exposed post, don't give anything away even if you have to surrender because of the imbalance of forces. McMillin was a professional, a USNA and War College graduate, veteran of multiple conflicts, and had served as executive officer of a capital ship and on the CNO's staff ... but he forgets to have secret documents burned. Got it.

3) And yet despite the "close call" of Messervy et al, the 7th Division still held the IJA off ... again, because the Allies controlled the air and could fly in supplies.

Good luck.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

3) And yet despite the "close call" of Messervy et al, the 7th Division still held the IJA off ... again, because the Allies controlled the air and could fly in supplies.

Good luck.

Also IIRC the Indian troops never got the best of anything and even then after the initial Japanese push from that offensive the allies quickly recovered the lost land and dealt a devastating blow to the Japanese. Japan winning any naval offensive in 44 is ASB assuming all the commanders of OTL are running the show.

 

[Deadtroopers]

TFSmith121 is agin' it. Methinks there must be something to it.
Joking aside, let's see where Abe wants to go with this before deciding it is a stretch. Lots of guys above the Guam commander's pay grade dropped the ball Dec7/8 OTL. How many pages would you run to of all the things that happened in WWII that would make Turtledove credible if they were fictional events?

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Okay, so they ignore the basic requirement of an exposed post, don't give anything away even if you have to surrender because of the imbalance of forces. McMillin was a professional, a USNA and War College graduate, veteran of multiple conflicts, and had served as executive officer of a capital ship and on the CNO's staff ... but he forgets to have secret documents burned. Got it.

Like Deadtroopers said, dumber decisions were made in 1941. But I was wondering if you might have a more plausible POD for McMillin failing to burn the documents?