Could Operation Sealion have worked?

Many of the people on this site have commented on how unlikely it is that Operation Sealion might ever have worked - I don't know about that, in fact, I can envision a TL in which Sealion might have been brought:

- First of all, the Wehrmacht sends the panzers in at Dunkirk, and destroys/captures the BEF.
- Secondly, rather than cut back on the production of combat aircraft after the fall of Paris, Hitler instead expands their production, especially in the area of heavy long range bombers.
- Lastly, Hitler doesn't shift the focus of the Battle of Britain from the RAF to the industrial centers and cities.

With all three of those changes, Hitler might have been able to pull of Sealion - take out the RAF to gain air supperiority, then attack the Royal Navy from the air, while conducting advanced invasions with glider-borne elite light infantry and fallschrimjaeger... without the BEF, they would have been opposed largely by raw conscripts or the Home Guard, and could have wrought quite a bit of havoc... while the main landing force was moved across the channel under the cover of the Luftwaffe.
Well? What do you think about the likelyhood of Operation Sealion succeding under these circumstances?

(Please note that we're also assuming that Hitler waits to attack Russia...)
 
The problem is that the RN is still going to cut off any troops you manage to land in 1940. If you wait until 1941-1942 and build up your naval attack capability, the RAF and army are going to be able to defend Great Britain, and if you wait too long, Japan's going to bring the United States into the war, and even in the most optimistic scenarios, the Kriegsmarine isn't going to beat both the RN and the USN.

So really, unless you want to throw out a series of low-order probability events, Sealion isn't going to work. But it is possible... you just have to have Hitler be something he isn't or have a POD prior to 1939.
 
But...

But with German air supperiority, I would argue that Allied naval supperiority wouldn't matter that much - if any Royal Navy ship that tried to attack the German troop convoys got hit by torpedo planes, then maybe that would be enough to make the English unable to halt the German landing attempts - D-Day in reverse, anyone?
 

Susano

Banned
What "S word"? Sealion - I don't see how a reference to Operation Sealion could be so terrible... I mean, it isn't something ASB, is it?

Yeah, you cant see it. Its a community thing, you see. Sealion is, mockingly, treated as something totally implausible and ASB here ;)
Which of course doenst prevent serious debatte about it. But you have to count with such comments as mine. They arent really serious :p
 
But with German air supperiority, I would argue that Allied naval supperiority wouldn't matter that much - if any Royal Navy ship that tried to attack the German troop convoys got hit by torpedo planes, then maybe that would be enough to make the English unable to halt the German landing attempts - D-Day in reverse, anyone?

I don't think the German's had any torpedo bombers. I don't know of one. So, in order to use them, they would have to develop them first, which would give the UK more time to build defenses. You do realise that the Germans were going to make the crossing in converted Rhine barges. These barges can handle the placid Rhine, but probably not the English Channel. Not very likely to almost impossible to happen.

Torqumada
 
The Germans did have a small number of torpedo planes. Certain variants of the He111 were torpedo capable and one KG actually trained a little. I think they also also had a test gruppe with that weird biplane being considered for carrier ops.

The problem with the airpower dominates seapower mentaility goes something like this. Imagine a force of 20 RN destoyers with a CL flag is descending upon the invasion fleet. Low and behold 60 Stukas appear. Only half of them have ever attacked ships. They suffer a few losses to AA but the really impotant thing it is not easy for even a divebomber to hit a rapidly moving destroyer. They score 2 hits on the CL and 4 hits on the DD. But the Stuka's have now expended their bombs and can do nothing further. The attacking warships have their formation disrupted. They continue on to the tugs and barges which they annihilate and now worry about the next airstrike.
 
But with German air supperiority, I would argue that Allied naval supperiority wouldn't matter that much - if any Royal Navy ship that tried to attack the German troop convoys got hit by torpedo planes, then maybe that would be enough to make the English unable to halt the German landing attempts - D-Day in reverse, anyone?

How good was German anti-ship air-power? If their torpedo bombers aren't that good, the RN will gut the invasion force.

Heck, even if their torpedo bombers ARE good, the RN could still gut the invasion force--part of Sea Lion involved using flimsy Rhine barges to transport troops.
 
I would say that if Hitler was willing to sacrifice the surface fleet in a holding action and managed to co-ordinate land-based air with the navy, then with a lot of luck it just might be possible to land some forces in Britain. It would be wise to just make that be a raid though, as Germany would not be able to hold the RN off for more than a few hours at best.

For a realistic invasion of Britain in 1940 we need a POD several years back, and then one faces the problem that resources Germany would invest into building up the fleet and anti-shipping air power would presumably be taken away from the army, which might hamper Germany's ability to take France.

I would say the best chance of a successful Nazi invasion of Britain would be after the Soviet Union has been knocked out, as only then can Germany focus almost all of its resources on preparing to attack Britain, as with the Soviets beaten they can afford to let the army shrink to a degree. With all the resources of Europe at their command Germany can probably outbuild the British and grind them down through attrition.
 
Maybe if...

Okay, but let's say that when they're expanding post-taking of Paris construction of combat aircraft, they also expand construction of torpedo bombers.
Then, they take out the RAF (demoralized after the loss of the BEF) with their greater numbers, and their decision to continue to concentrate on the RAF...
As for the Royal Navy, perhaps they could have assigned some of the newly built aircraft (which wouldn't be there OTL) to assault them before the begining of the actual landings? Even if they aren't so succesful against the Royal Navy in any given raid, even if they lose nine or ten planes for each ship they kill, they still come out ahead - as Tom_B commented, let's say 60 Stuka's (or torpedo bombers) attack a Royal Navy task force - they lose, shall we say, 5 planes to AA fire, and knock out one ship - which wouldn't prevent the remainder from attacking whatever these air craft were escorting, but let's say they weren't escorting - rather, they were out hunting that Royal Navy task force - which has now come out behind in that trade, since even a destroyer likely costs more than five planes.
For an idea of what I'm talking about, consider the Brit raid on the Italian mediteranian fleet - they caught them in the harbor with torpedo planes, then sunk them. That's how I'd keep the Royal Navy away if I was planning Sealion - sink their ships as part of a buildup to the invasion. (And the Luftwaffe units attacking the RAF could still be reinforced... after all, OTL, Hitler ordered the production of combat planes decreased after the capture of Paris.)
So, maybe with that?
 

Chris

Banned
I worked out a Sealion timeline for 'The Counterfactual War'. See the CTT site for the orginal. The problem was that by 1939 - IT WAS ALREADY TOO LATE for Hitler et al to make either the production or political changes that would be required to give Sealion a fair chance of sucess. At best, I give the post-1939 plans a 30% chance of sucess.

Germany simply lacked a valid antiship capability. The RN knew this; Norway had not been an impressive demonstration of the german antiship skills. Smashing the forces at Dunkirk might well have crippled Britain, which would probabuly have allowed the italians to win in Egypt, but it would not have fixed the real problems with the german force. True; the UK Army would be very weak. True; the germans could have probabuly have landed a small force. False; the Germans could have held out long enough to make the british either sue for peace or their victory certain.

In TCW, the Germans have a valid airborne capability and more transports. They also manage to sink a battleship, al la the Prince of Wales, in Norway. That addition makes it much more likerly that the germans can land a force, but the RN would be more reluctant to risk battle...as the navy is one of Britain's barganing chips. If the Japanese stab the british in the back - something they planned for OTL Sealion, which of course was never launched - the British position starts to crumble.

If the Germans did manage to establish a breachhead (possible) and resupply (less possible), they have a good chance of winning. The British army was very weak at the time; the home guard, in the words of the song, might as well have stayed home. The British army could not have stood up to the Germans.

<shrug>

Chris
 
Sealion was wargamed at Sandhurst in 1973 - the "commanders" had all been junior officers in1940 The umpires were slightly more senior - Adolf Galland for example. The result - an overwhelming german defeat. The main problen was that the RN was so superior - in fact the naval command in the wargame soon realised that only light cruisers, destroyers and fast attack craft were necessary. It is noteworthy that the result was agreed by all the commanders and umpires.
 

MrP

Banned
Okay, but let's say that when they're expanding post-taking of Paris construction of combat aircraft, they also expand construction of torpedo bombers.

They also need a viable doctrine and training system. It isn't enough merely to have the planes - they have to be properly trained to attack ships. Take a look at the inconsequential losses suffered to the Luftwaffe at Dunkirk, for example. Those ships were near stationary - though I grant it was bombs, not torps.

Then, they take out the RAF (demoralized after the loss of the BEF) with their greater numbers, and their decision to continue to concentrate on the RAF...

Dunno, one of the Luftwaffe's real problems was that they had to fly for several hours before they got to dogfight for a bit with the enemy. Then they couldn't spend too long their or they'd not get back to their bases.

As for the Royal Navy, perhaps they could have assigned some of the newly built aircraft (which wouldn't be there OTL) to assault them before the begining of the actual landings? Even if they aren't so succesful against the Royal Navy in any given raid, even if they lose nine or ten planes for each ship they kill, they still come out ahead - as Tom_B commented, let's say 60 Stuka's (or torpedo bombers) attack a Royal Navy task force - they lose, shall we say, 5 planes to AA fire, and knock out one ship - which wouldn't prevent the remainder from attacking whatever these air craft were escorting, but let's say they weren't escorting - rather, they were out hunting that Royal Navy task force - which has now come out behind in that trade, since even a destroyer likely costs more than five planes.
The point is not that the RN can't be destroyed, but that the RN can't be stopped from accomplishing its mission - interdiction of supplies to the beach-heads. This is a far less serious matter in your ATL because the BEF isn't there any more, but it's still pretty significant. The Germans can't keep landing reinforcements if the barges are all destroyed. As others have said, these barges won't even stand up to mild Channel conditions.

For an idea of what I'm talking about, consider the Brit raid on the Italian mediteranian fleet - they caught them in the harbor with torpedo planes, then sunk them. That's how I'd keep the Royal Navy away if I was planning Sealion - sink their ships as part of a buildup to the invasion. (And the Luftwaffe units attacking the RAF could still be reinforced... after all, OTL, Hitler ordered the production of combat planes decreased after the capture of Paris.)
So, maybe with that?

I did once have a link to the wargame results from when the Brit and German Staffs 'gamed this in the '70s. Sadly, that site's shut down since.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I did once have a link to the wargame results from when the Brit and German Staffs 'gamed this in the '70s. Sadly, that site's shut down since.

I just checked 'Invasion!' by Kenneth Macksey (where the Nazis win, actually). The wargame was fought in '74 with the West Germans playing the Wehrmact/Luftwaffe/Kriegsmarine. They managed to land troops but were killed or surrendered by D-Day+3.

A bunch of friends and I wargamed it out using PanzerBlitz rules and I managed to stay alive for 5 days. I considered it lucky.

Supposing Hitler sent the panzers forward and destroyed the Expeditionary force, I've found that he didn't have the boats to do it. And by the time he did have the logistical capabilities to do it, the British had already repelled the Luftwaffe.
Even supposing that the Germans didn't declare war on America in 1941 and they don't come in, it seems to me that once the RAF had taken back the skies, there wasn't any chance. And even if the Germans did get air superiority over the landing beaches, they'd have to take airfields in the first day. This would be very difficult on the second or third day, when the fallshirmjager units are waiting for reenforcments that never got up the cliffs at Dover.

But everyone seems to think of this as D-Day in reverse. Could the Germans have pulled off a Dieppe in reverse? Possibly land fallshirmjager units or small units of Wehrmacht in raids along the coast? More like the battleship raids they did against England in World War I?
It would scare the bejeesus out of the English population if there were stories of the Germans setting fire to towns and disappearing. It might throw the wartime economy of the English out of whack.
Just a thought, though.
 

backstab

Banned
But everyone seems to think of this as D-Day in reverse. Could the Germans have pulled off a Dieppe in reverse? Possibly land fallshirmjager units or small units of Wehrmacht in raids along the coast? More like the battleship raids they did against England in World War I?
It would scare the bejeesus out of the English population if there were stories of the Germans setting fire to towns and disappearing. It might throw the wartime economy of the English out of whack.
Just a thought, though.

That would be their best course of Action. A full scale invasion would be a failure but raids like you mentioned would be more up the Germans ally, using Brandenburger commanoes. But this would only have a minor effect on the war if any .
 
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