TheLoneAmigo
Donor
What if Hitler, ignoring all caution, had ordered Germany to attempt Sealion, but the British had been able to prevent it from succeeding?
WI: Sealion Attempted and Failed
- Thread starter TheLoneAmigo
- Start date
TheLoneAmigo said:
There would be a lot of Dead Germans .
There is an old game out in the Europa games called Sealion the germans 90% of the time lose to the British because of the Royal Navy .
To do an land on a enemy controled Beach you must have suppremsy of the seas , The Germans never could ove done it with there Navy of 1940 .
P.S. Most last words are crys for there mothers .
Flocculencio
Donor
I'm no WW2 buff but from what I know the general consensus on the forum seems to be that SEALION had little or no chance of succeeding.
TheLoneAmigo
Donor
I know that most likely, Sealion would have failed. That's what this post is about. What if Sealion had been attempted, but failed? Lots of dead Germans equals what? Probably not going to attack Russia (assuming Sealion in 1940), but if Hitler is crazy enough...
Proctol
Banned
The Germans came close to winning the Battle of Britain.
WI in September 1940 there had been no Blitz on the British cities, and the bombing of the aerodromes & radar stations had continued and they had all been destroyed?
With the surviving RAF fighters being hemmed in the north-west, the RN hemmed in at Scapa Flow, & the Luftwaffe able to roam unchallenged over most of England, what would have been the results, short & long-term? A British surrender, or the whole country being gradually pulverised? Without their few power stations, & at the time single Rolls Royce engine and Enfield Bren Gun factory, the British cannot wage war for long.
Without the RN & RAF, would some form of Sealion have been feasible and when? If the RN & RAF attacked, they would have a chance of destroying the German invaders, but would it have been a one-way Valhalla ride?
Could two Fallschirmjaeger divisions dropping on Parliament under full Luftwaffe cover have ended the war? Heil Reichsprotektor England Mosley?! Can airpower alone actually win a war?
WI in September 1940 there had been no Blitz on the British cities, and the bombing of the aerodromes & radar stations had continued and they had all been destroyed?
With the surviving RAF fighters being hemmed in the north-west, the RN hemmed in at Scapa Flow, & the Luftwaffe able to roam unchallenged over most of England, what would have been the results, short & long-term? A British surrender, or the whole country being gradually pulverised? Without their few power stations, & at the time single Rolls Royce engine and Enfield Bren Gun factory, the British cannot wage war for long.
Without the RN & RAF, would some form of Sealion have been feasible and when? If the RN & RAF attacked, they would have a chance of destroying the German invaders, but would it have been a one-way Valhalla ride?
Could two Fallschirmjaeger divisions dropping on Parliament under full Luftwaffe cover have ended the war? Heil Reichsprotektor England Mosley?! Can airpower alone actually win a war?
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Oh no! Not Sealion again!
Alrighty then. If the Germans went with the OTL plans for Sealion, then they are defeated. No doubt about it. So somewhere between 6-8 Divisions, including the two airborne ones, are destroyed within 24 hours.
Now it's not necessarily the loss of these divisions, which will hit hard, but it's the assets which the Germans lose which will be felt. First off, there's the Rhine barges. These are essential to the German economy, especially the war economy. So throughtout the rest of 1940-41, the German ability to wage war is severly reduced.
The next is the loss of the Kriegsmarine. Most of it's surface vessels are sunk. Not great initially for Germany in one respect, but it may push on the need for more U-Boats a year earlier than OTL. This could have a detrimental impact of the war upon the UK.
Essentially, though, Germany won't be in a position to take on the USSR in 1941. Invasion plans will drastically fall behind the minimal requirements for any attack. Furthermore, Hitler may consider, after the failure of Sealion, to take out Britain first, considering he has just suffered an embarrising defeat. Coupled with this, Churchill is bound to rub it in which will only make Hitler's temper worse & thus centre his attention on defeating Britain.
So, in the end, it'll depend whether or not, in 1942, Hitler decides to defeat Britain only, or repeat his idiotic decision to invade Russia whilst the UK is still in the war. Add in Japanese moves in the Pacific & the USA may also be involved by this time in a similar manner to OTL. If the USA comes into the war, the UK is saved & Germany is eventually defeated. Otherwise, the UK could be in deep trouble. Yet Hitler may let the UK off. So if Hitler invades Russia a year later than OTL, in other words in 1942, the war as a whole somewhat repeats itself, albeit everything happens a year later.
So for Germany to defeat the UK, the OTL plans for Sealion have to be thrown out the window & someone like Manstein plans it instead. As a result, expect a completely different Sealion wherein Germany has a good chance to succeed. But, as was discussed in another thread on this topic, it then depends upon how patient the RN can be. If they attack immediately, the RN hasn't got the numbers & the Germans will still succeed. But if the RN can wait, build up its numbers & then attack, the sea lanes across the Channel are closed & the German Invasion Army is cut off from Europe & will be defeated.
Alrighty then. If the Germans went with the OTL plans for Sealion, then they are defeated. No doubt about it. So somewhere between 6-8 Divisions, including the two airborne ones, are destroyed within 24 hours.
Now it's not necessarily the loss of these divisions, which will hit hard, but it's the assets which the Germans lose which will be felt. First off, there's the Rhine barges. These are essential to the German economy, especially the war economy. So throughtout the rest of 1940-41, the German ability to wage war is severly reduced.
The next is the loss of the Kriegsmarine. Most of it's surface vessels are sunk. Not great initially for Germany in one respect, but it may push on the need for more U-Boats a year earlier than OTL. This could have a detrimental impact of the war upon the UK.
Essentially, though, Germany won't be in a position to take on the USSR in 1941. Invasion plans will drastically fall behind the minimal requirements for any attack. Furthermore, Hitler may consider, after the failure of Sealion, to take out Britain first, considering he has just suffered an embarrising defeat. Coupled with this, Churchill is bound to rub it in which will only make Hitler's temper worse & thus centre his attention on defeating Britain.
So, in the end, it'll depend whether or not, in 1942, Hitler decides to defeat Britain only, or repeat his idiotic decision to invade Russia whilst the UK is still in the war. Add in Japanese moves in the Pacific & the USA may also be involved by this time in a similar manner to OTL. If the USA comes into the war, the UK is saved & Germany is eventually defeated. Otherwise, the UK could be in deep trouble. Yet Hitler may let the UK off. So if Hitler invades Russia a year later than OTL, in other words in 1942, the war as a whole somewhat repeats itself, albeit everything happens a year later.
So for Germany to defeat the UK, the OTL plans for Sealion have to be thrown out the window & someone like Manstein plans it instead. As a result, expect a completely different Sealion wherein Germany has a good chance to succeed. But, as was discussed in another thread on this topic, it then depends upon how patient the RN can be. If they attack immediately, the RN hasn't got the numbers & the Germans will still succeed. But if the RN can wait, build up its numbers & then attack, the sea lanes across the Channel are closed & the German Invasion Army is cut off from Europe & will be defeated.
Proctol said:
Whoa there horsey! Let’s try and stick to the POD, which is that Sealion FAILS
Hitler’s invincible aura is broken, and the loss of troops, equipment and most importantly the Rhine barges is going to have a serious effect on the Nazi war machine. Barbarossa will be changed by this, at the very least delayed, if not cut back in scale.
On th flip side, Churchill doesn’t have the ability to send the core of the Army units in the UK to whip the Italians in North Africa- he could do this in OTL since he felt confident the Germans couldn’t invade. Countering this is the huge propaganda boost that the Commonwealth gets. Expect more Eagle squadrons of US volunteers to be formed as more and more people flock to the UK to fight against Hitler, now they know its not a lost cause.
Where does Hitler go from here? Can he really just ignore a victorious Commonwealth and go for Russia as he wanted, or does the Mediterranean strategy of attacking the vital areas of the Empire come into force? Is there a chance that a city Blitz occurs? Is Hitler even still in charge after this dramatic failure?
What about Churchill? After defeating the Nazi Armada (I’m sure he would come up with a better title than that), what next? This all depends on how battered the country is after the final German surrenders. If someone can come up with some stats on how badly chewed up the UK’s armed forces would be, then I’ll try and post a timeline.
More fun than revising Law for my finals!
Dammit, thought I'd reply before DMA got a chance to, guess it always helps to hit the 'Submit Reply' button…
We discussed this topic some time ago on a thread called "Sealion's Sunk." If we do a TL, that's what the title should be. It sounds rather witty...
I heard that the Rhine barges carried a lot of Germany's food...if the barges are used in the invasion and are destroyed (sailing a big ship by them would swamp them, plus the Nazis planned on disembarking their tanks by blowing the doors off with cannon), might there be food shortages in Germany?
I heard that the Rhine barges carried a lot of Germany's food...if the barges are used in the invasion and are destroyed (sailing a big ship by them would swamp them, plus the Nazis planned on disembarking their tanks by blowing the doors off with cannon), might there be food shortages in Germany?
Matt Quinn said:
It's not too much going to be a food problem as a coal shortage. Scott Palter, over at CTT, knows more about this aspect than me, but the barges were mostly used to move coal around so that German industry could produce its stuff. Take away this important aspect of any industrial economy, that is the coal that fires the power stations, the factories, the smelters, the foundaries, etc, & you can't produce anything, especially weapons of every description.
Paulo the Limey said:Dammit, thought I'd reply before DMA got a chance to, guess it always helps to hit the 'Submit Reply' button…
LOL - Unfortunately I bet ya to it Paulo!
Nonetheless I pretty much agree with what you say if Sealion fails.
Maybe Churchill would call the Kriegsmarine "those Hun Pirates"
Proctol
Banned
Just a few minutes rolling around in the flat-bottomed LCTs reduced the Anglo-American troops on D Day to seasick balls of vomit. Many hours crossing the Channel & North Sea in the even more flat-bottomed Rhine barges (assuming they don't break in two), & even hardened SS will be in such a state of shock & nausea, that they won't even be able to stagger ashore, & even the British Home Guard & Dad's Army'll be able to mop them up!
http://www.spotlightgermany.com/gallery/rhein_barge.htm
http://www.spotlightgermany.com/gallery/rhein_barge.htm
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Flocculencio
Donor
Proctol said:
That's a Rhine Barge?
How in the name of Fenrir the Frost Wolf did the Germans even think of attempting a crossing of the North Sea in those?
Yep, that's a barge.
What the Germans thought of crossing the Channel in such cargo haulers?
Well, it was just the lack of having enough ships, so they would've taken about anything that floats on water, stack their troops in it and off they go...
Other consequences apart from crippling the infrastuctures of Nazi Germany? Well, thinking of Operation Barbarossa, being delayed or not, the early successes and advances still might happen (maybe Stalin could be even more surprised if Germany attemts to wage war on the Soviet Union even though they suffered heavy casualties from Operation Sealion).
And, with Hitler experienceing a defeat before Barbarossa, he might have agreed on one of Stalins offers to cease fire, which, in the long run, would have lengthened the war (in the End Germany would most likely still lose)
So, these were some of my thoughts. Hope my grammar wasn't too wrong (I'm not native English speaking and this is my first discussion forum where I actually participate)
What the Germans thought of crossing the Channel in such cargo haulers?
Well, it was just the lack of having enough ships, so they would've taken about anything that floats on water, stack their troops in it and off they go...
Other consequences apart from crippling the infrastuctures of Nazi Germany? Well, thinking of Operation Barbarossa, being delayed or not, the early successes and advances still might happen (maybe Stalin could be even more surprised if Germany attemts to wage war on the Soviet Union even though they suffered heavy casualties from Operation Sealion).
And, with Hitler experienceing a defeat before Barbarossa, he might have agreed on one of Stalins offers to cease fire, which, in the long run, would have lengthened the war (in the End Germany would most likely still lose)
So, these were some of my thoughts. Hope my grammar wasn't too wrong (I'm not native English speaking and this is my first discussion forum where I actually participate)
For an interesting speculation on this matter, check out "Sealion Fails". It's a bit long, but excellent reading:
http://www.geocities.com/drammos/sealion1.html
One of the most interesting ideas that scenario puts forward is that the resources diverted to Sealion require the forces invading France to slow down a bit, allowing to French to catch their breath and evacuate their government, treasury, and some of their land forces and industrial capacity, allowing them to continue the fight from Corsica and Algeria.
Oh yes, and Barbarossa happens, but on a smaller scale, and at the cost of U-Boat production.
http://www.geocities.com/drammos/sealion1.html
One of the most interesting ideas that scenario puts forward is that the resources diverted to Sealion require the forces invading France to slow down a bit, allowing to French to catch their breath and evacuate their government, treasury, and some of their land forces and industrial capacity, allowing them to continue the fight from Corsica and Algeria.
Oh yes, and Barbarossa happens, but on a smaller scale, and at the cost of U-Boat production.
Redbeard
Banned
In any scenario resembling OTL Sealion would surely fail, but the problem wasn't getting the troops or supplies transported across the Channel, people do that everyday, but seacontrol, or lack of it, was THE problem.
Kriegsmarine simply is too weak to be able to secure the crossing and landing zones, and even though Luftwaffe must be supposed to have air superiority (if not supremacy) before Sealion starts, the 1940 Luftwaffe wasn't very efficient against massive sea targets. Levelbombers showed to be almost worthless against moving seatargets and less that 300 StuKa's were available before BoB (and will be in harddemand for army support). Next the 1940 StuKa carried a max 500 kg bomb, and even if armour piercing (I'm not sure if AP bombs were avialable to Luftwaffe in 1940) would not penetrate the deck armour of the newest or modernised battleships from altitudes were a hit is probable.
But I could imagine that Göring after a victory in BoB (which is an absolute precondition to Sealion being initiated) is unstoppable, and readily promises to stop the RN before it reaches the landing zones. If the other prominent Germans buy it I guess the Germans will be able to get across most of the initial attack force, which the British really have nothing with which to stop, apart from the Germans running out of fuel and ammo.
But the the RN will come sweeping down in massive numbers. Göring will unleash hundreds of level bombers - with disappointing results. But mines and torpedoes from U-boats and light surface vessels will take their toll, as well as the StuKas among destroyers and cruisers. Not that the Germans can keep control, the Kriegsmarine will cease to exist as a surface force, but if the RN has to sacrifice a major part of it's force in order to defeat Sealion, the Germans might have made a good bargain. Paying a handful of Divsions (out of appr. 200) and some resource draining warships is not much for breaking the back of the RN. I'm not sure Hitler is in serious danger over this, he wasted hundreds of Divisions later as well as a major part of the German homes without seriously loosing the grip on power.
The British will surely ring the bells over their victory but if the back of the RN is broken it indeed is a Phyrric victory, and I guess they ASAP will find an opportunity to make a honourable peace. Wehrmacht will be as ready as ever for Barbarossa.
But if the RN actually suceeds in doing this without "backbreaking" losses, the Germans have serious trouble.
Nobody can predict what will happen, that's perhaps why the Germans wisely chose to cancel Sealion - and because Kriegsmarine actively worked for having Sealion look impossible - they had no intention to loose all thier shiny ships and be blamed afterwards for a failed Sealion.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Kriegsmarine simply is too weak to be able to secure the crossing and landing zones, and even though Luftwaffe must be supposed to have air superiority (if not supremacy) before Sealion starts, the 1940 Luftwaffe wasn't very efficient against massive sea targets. Levelbombers showed to be almost worthless against moving seatargets and less that 300 StuKa's were available before BoB (and will be in harddemand for army support). Next the 1940 StuKa carried a max 500 kg bomb, and even if armour piercing (I'm not sure if AP bombs were avialable to Luftwaffe in 1940) would not penetrate the deck armour of the newest or modernised battleships from altitudes were a hit is probable.
But I could imagine that Göring after a victory in BoB (which is an absolute precondition to Sealion being initiated) is unstoppable, and readily promises to stop the RN before it reaches the landing zones. If the other prominent Germans buy it I guess the Germans will be able to get across most of the initial attack force, which the British really have nothing with which to stop, apart from the Germans running out of fuel and ammo.
But the the RN will come sweeping down in massive numbers. Göring will unleash hundreds of level bombers - with disappointing results. But mines and torpedoes from U-boats and light surface vessels will take their toll, as well as the StuKas among destroyers and cruisers. Not that the Germans can keep control, the Kriegsmarine will cease to exist as a surface force, but if the RN has to sacrifice a major part of it's force in order to defeat Sealion, the Germans might have made a good bargain. Paying a handful of Divsions (out of appr. 200) and some resource draining warships is not much for breaking the back of the RN. I'm not sure Hitler is in serious danger over this, he wasted hundreds of Divisions later as well as a major part of the German homes without seriously loosing the grip on power.
The British will surely ring the bells over their victory but if the back of the RN is broken it indeed is a Phyrric victory, and I guess they ASAP will find an opportunity to make a honourable peace. Wehrmacht will be as ready as ever for Barbarossa.
But if the RN actually suceeds in doing this without "backbreaking" losses, the Germans have serious trouble.
Nobody can predict what will happen, that's perhaps why the Germans wisely chose to cancel Sealion - and because Kriegsmarine actively worked for having Sealion look impossible - they had no intention to loose all thier shiny ships and be blamed afterwards for a failed Sealion.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
RN losses
The RN plan was to use mostly destroyers with a few light cruisers and some MTB's as the primary instrument to deny the Germans use of the Straits in the event of Sea Lion. Home Fleet would be brought home cautiously to engage the heavy units of the Kriegsmarine. So far as battleships I can see the RN defeating Sea Lion without any being seriously damaged. But the losses to destroyer flotillas from mines are air attack could be serious--15 to 20 sunk and another 20-30 damaged.
This would not force the British to sue for peace but the loss of so many destroyers will make the U-Boat skippers happy-provided they have not been badly depleted by shalllow water operations during Sea Lion.
If a late (Sept) Sea Lion fails, the heavy losses to the Heer ruin any chance of Barbarossa. An early (July a la Macksey but minus his miracles of handwaving) failed Sea Lion with its smaller ORBAT leaves the Barbarossa door at least partially open.
The RN plan was to use mostly destroyers with a few light cruisers and some MTB's as the primary instrument to deny the Germans use of the Straits in the event of Sea Lion. Home Fleet would be brought home cautiously to engage the heavy units of the Kriegsmarine. So far as battleships I can see the RN defeating Sea Lion without any being seriously damaged. But the losses to destroyer flotillas from mines are air attack could be serious--15 to 20 sunk and another 20-30 damaged.
This would not force the British to sue for peace but the loss of so many destroyers will make the U-Boat skippers happy-provided they have not been badly depleted by shalllow water operations during Sea Lion.
If a late (Sept) Sea Lion fails, the heavy losses to the Heer ruin any chance of Barbarossa. An early (July a la Macksey but minus his miracles of handwaving) failed Sea Lion with its smaller ORBAT leaves the Barbarossa door at least partially open.
Redbeard
Banned
Losses among destroyers would be far more serious than any other category. I doubt the Channel Force alone (30-40DD + a handful of cruisers) is enough to stop SeaLion. Old slow BB's are best deployed as "attack absorbers" - i.e. any attack performed on an old slow BB will not be performed on something more valuable. Homefleet will have to engage, and I even wonder if the Mediterranean Fleet will be withdrawn if BoB is lost. But then you of course risk the Italian Fleet following them up north.
If the Germans get across their entire attack force (15 DIV?) I fear they will have decided the war on land before the RN can make an impression at sea, and if a more limited force, say 5 Divisions, is landed, the British will still be in trouble, hardly capable of operating a Division size force, but loosing 5 Divisions is not likely to stop Barbarossa, but loosing 40 more destroyers in 1940 will be close to breaking the back of RN. In that context peace with UK is not unlikely - and for that 5 Divisions (perhaps even 15) is a good bargain for Germany.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
If the Germans get across their entire attack force (15 DIV?) I fear they will have decided the war on land before the RN can make an impression at sea, and if a more limited force, say 5 Divisions, is landed, the British will still be in trouble, hardly capable of operating a Division size force, but loosing 5 Divisions is not likely to stop Barbarossa, but loosing 40 more destroyers in 1940 will be close to breaking the back of RN. In that context peace with UK is not unlikely - and for that 5 Divisions (perhaps even 15) is a good bargain for Germany.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Paulo the Limey said:
You know better than that. Can't have any discussion about Sealion here without everybody talking about details like how the pigeons' migrating season will affect the top speed of the Bf109 in 12 page essays.
How dare you, Lone Amigo! How dare you bring up Sealion! It's like the ultimate taboo here.
The forgotten Sealion thread
Here's a link to a previous discussion thread on Sealion "ATL - Successful OP Sealion campaign" https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=2272&highlight=Sealion
Note all the arguements over the failure/success of Sealion...
Oh man my head hurts
Here's a link to a previous discussion thread on Sealion "ATL - Successful OP Sealion campaign" https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=2272&highlight=Sealion
Note all the arguements over the failure/success of Sealion...
Oh man my head hurts