Lockheed collapsed in 1971?

Lockheed was on the verge of collapsing in 1971, and only survived thanks to the Emergency Loan Guarantee Act of 1971 (which passed the Senate thanks only to Spiro Agnew's tie-breaking vote). Could this act have failed to pass? What would've happened next - bankruptcy, an executive order by Nixon, a buyout by someone, or what?

Further, could the Lockheed bribery scandals have leaked earlier? They could've plausibly torpedoed the ELGA, and might have led to Skunk Works resigning en masse - as it was, Kelly Johnson nearly quit over the scandals when they came out in 1975, even though Lockheed's top brass had resigned over the issue. Where would they go?

This also has knock-on effects elsewhere - the British engine company Rolls-Royce went into receivership on February 4, 1971 and was nationalized by PM Edward Heath; it was dependent on ELGA's guarantee of funds for Lockheed to bring the L-1011 project to completion. If Lockheed folds, and the L-1011 isn't picked up by another manufacturer, what happens to Rolls-Royce, and to Heath?
 
Wow, this sounds like a fascinating POD. I had no idea Lockheed almost died in the 70s.

Unfortunately I don't know anything about the layout of the defense industry at the time, so this is a stab in the dark.

Lockheed is bough out by one of its better off competitors. Part of this involves assuming their debt. Unfortunately, the company, say McDonald Douglas, doesn't have the ability to deal with all the debts, and merges with another company that can. Maybe Boeing, although that seems a stretch.

Yeah I basically ripped off the death TRW.
 
More details
Also, check out the pdf available at this link, a study from 1977.

The ELGA was introduced May 13, 1971, and passed the House of Representatives by just 3 votes (192-189) on July 30, 1971; it was passed, 49-48 (with Agnew breaking the tie) on August 2. Several Democratic presidential hopefuls in the Senate voted against the bill, as did the Senators representing Missouri (headquarters of McDonnell Douglas), Massachusetts (home of GE's aircraft engine group, which provided the engines for the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 (which the L-1011 would compete against)) and Connecticut (home of Pratt & Whitney).
 
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For clarity on the Rolls-Royce nationalization - Heath made it dependent on the US government guaranteeing the survival of Lockheed.
 
Wow, this sounds like a fascinating POD. I had no idea Lockheed almost died in the 70s.

Unfortunately I don't know anything about the layout of the defense industry at the time, so this is a stab in the dark.

Lockheed is bough out by one of its better off competitors. Part of this involves assuming their debt. Unfortunately, the company, say McDonald Douglas, doesn't have the ability to deal with all the debts, and merges with another company that can. Maybe Boeing, although that seems a stretch.

Yeah I basically ripped off the death TRW.

Boeing was in pretty bad shape around this time too- Congress cancelling the SST project really screwed the company over, as it had a lot invested in the project, and as a result lost a ton of money, was laying off thousands of workers, and sparked a pretty nasty downturn in the Puget Sound area on top of the early 1970s national recession- this is right about when some wag put up a billboard on I-5 in Seattle saying "Will the last person to leave Seattle please turn out the lights?"

Not sure if anyone in the aerospace industry would be industry would be in a position to do more than buy up some assets/divisions in a liquidation of Lockheed in the early 70s.
 
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See, that's the sort of details I'm looking for - who does the picking-off, and of what? McDonnell Douglas, sure. Ling-Temco-Vought? Martin Marietta? Maybe Northrop? Probably not GD - Lightweight Fighter hasn't happened yet, so it's still desperate for a contract after the F-111 finished up its run.

Divisions up for grabs
 
At the DoD they got heart attacks if Lockheed collapsed
why ?
Lockheed build allot stuff for Pentagon
next to Skunk Works, they build Us Spysats, UGM-27 Polaris Missile and electronic subsystems
means Lockheed play important role in US defence
IMHO the government had to nationalize Lockheed to save it, much to Soviet gleefulness
 
Or just split it up among its competitors. Skunk Works, like the other branches of Lockheed, easily could've moved over to some other company... one that hopefully wouldn't have quite so many delays and overruns as Lockheed was having.

The Soviets will certainly be gleeful, either way. Given that this is a period of detente, might the Soviets try to develop a competitor to the DC-10 to fill the gap the L-1011 would've filled? It would definitely be a good move for them, especially when the DC-10 starts running into safety problems later in the decade. Weird, probably ASB idea: could Ilyushin offer to save Rolls-Royce by incorporating the RB.211 into a DC-10 competitor? Historically, the Soviets wanted to copy the RB.211 along the lines of the Nene; license-producing it could theoretically work.
 
Or just split it up among its competitors. Skunk Works, like the other branches of Lockheed, easily could've moved over to some other company... one that hopefully wouldn't have quite so many delays and overruns as Lockheed was having.

The Soviets will certainly be gleeful, either way. Given that this is a period of detente, might the Soviets try to develop a competitor to the DC-10 to fill the gap the L-1011 would've filled? It would definitely be a good move for them, especially when the DC-10 starts running into safety problems later in the decade. Weird, probably ASB idea: could Ilyushin offer to save Rolls-Royce by incorporating the RB.211 into a DC-10 competitor? Historically, the Soviets wanted to copy the RB.211 along the lines of the Nene; license-producing it could theoretically work.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-86

The DC-10 rival. They had huge problems getting it to work, with the first flight in 76 it still wasn't in time for the 80 olympics. So in order for the DC-10 rival idea to really work you'd need the reds to do something to keep their economy from stagnating like it did. That or they go for the RR engines, although I find it hard to believe that that would ever happen. Although I believe Aeroflot wanted to buy some L-1011s in OTL but was torpedoed but Congress, so maybe if Parliament is friendlier then Congress.


Boeing was in pretty bad shape around this time too- Congress cancelling the SST project really screwed the company over, as it had a lot invested in the project, and as a result lost a ton of money, was laying off thousands of workers, and sparked a pretty nasty downturn in the Puget Sound area on top of the early 1970s national recession- this is right about when some wag put up a billboard on I-5 in Seattle saying "Will the last person to leave Seattle please turn out the lights?"

Not sure if anyone in the aerospace industry would be industry would be in a position to do more than buy up some assets/divisions in a liquidation of Lockheed in the early 70s.

Yeah boeing was just a shot in the dark. But yeah I don't know who could be large enough to take all of lockheed, since the industry wasn't as consolidated then as now.
 
Oh the 1970s, the year of Disco, Bell Bottoms and the near collapse of the entire American aerospace industry. If you look at a timeline of events, this was the decade that a number of companies ceased to exist. But if you're imagining an Aerospace version of the Hindenberg, sadly you'll be disappointed. Most likely what would have happened is that Lockheed would have been bought out by another company. For example, when Grumman started to slip, they were bought by Northrop. Martin Marietta was bought by Lockheed. When Rockwell International started to see the end, they were split up, its entire aerospace division divied up with Boeing and Pratt and Whitney.

If I had to guess who would have bought them, it would have been Boeing, if anything; they were substantial enough with the increase of 747s and other airliners being produced. You would have ended up with "B&L Inc." Long term effects would be noticable compared to our timeline in relation to aerospace technology but not catastrophic. Lockheed has built the F-22, F-35, C-130 and Tridant Missile plus more. I am not saying they wouldn't exist, but they would look very different and be called something different. I would say the most extreme situation in a techological aspect is that we would be 3-5 years behind OTL.
 
Except Boeing, as has been pointed out, was hurting tremendously due to the SST cancellation. Why not a split-up of Lockheed on the lines of Rockwell? Let McDonnell Douglas, LTV, and maybe Martin Marietta pick it apart. Lockheed's certainly not going to disappear, just get absorbed into one or more other companies.

Random sidenote - the 747 was too big an airliner, as would become glaringly obvious in three years, when the oil embargo hit. A 747 that was 70% full still had 95% of the fuel needs of a fully-loaded 747, which made it very cost-ineffective. The DC-10 was much better positioned in size. I wonder if Boeing would've reconsidered its shortened trijet 747 proposal as a better DC-10 competitor?

If anything, the more interesting side of things in the aerospace world is the potential loss of Rolls-Royce!
 
Except Boeing, as has been pointed out, was hurting tremendously due to the SST cancellation. Why not a split-up of Lockheed on the lines of Rockwell? Let McDonnell Douglas, LTV, and maybe Martin Marietta pick it apart.

The 747 was too big an airliner, really - as would become glaringly obvious in three years, when the oil embargo hit. The DC-10 was much better positioned.

If anything, the more interesting side of things in the aerospace world is the potential loss of Rolls-Royce!

A Lockheed breakup in the 1970s would be no different than any other. Its sections would be sold off without batting an eye. Rolls-Royce, however; is another story. It is quite possible that Rolls-Royce would have gone under completely because of their committment to the RB211 engine, taking their automotive department with them (they weren't seperated until 1973).
 

MacCaulay

Banned
See, that's the sort of details I'm looking for - who does the picking-off, and of what? McDonnell Douglas, sure. Ling-Temco-Vought? Martin Marietta? Maybe Northrop? Probably not GD - Lightweight Fighter hasn't happened yet, so it's still desperate for a contract after the F-111 finished up its run.

Divisions up for grabs

Vought would be very interesting. They're not a huge company, but if they could even end up being able to keep fielding mid-priced aircraft like they were with the Crusader and Corsair II, they'd be doing good. And with the added space and resources it'd be neat to see a Vought surviving to the present day.
 
The main reason I picked LTV is that it was a conglomerate, not just an aerospace company - it had other assets to keep itself profitable.

Incidentally, Lockheed was in the shipbuilding business in this period.
 
Could we See Fairchild Republic as a major aerospace company ATL? What wiht the A-10 i can clearly see them as the new owner of the Skunk works.

Or maybe McDonnel Douglas becomes more prominent ATL. They were supplying the F-4 to the USAF USN and USMC. As well as that they were working on the F-15.
 
Lockheed was a predominently successful company except for the Starfighter scandal and the L-1011. To presume that less successful companies could buy it, just before they went out of business, doesn't seem plausible. As of now, do you remember Republic? Their L-1011 was the T-46. Closed the doors. Fairchild went off to different things. Remember LTV and the Super Crusader? Douglas and the DC-10? The McDonnell name is gone, General Dynamics is gone. What's the next aircraft from North American Rockwell? Some corporate failures make the failure of Avro Canada look like a failed candy store.

On a positive note, how about the Honeywell Corporation?
 
From the 1977 thesis (the study linked to in my second post on this thread), looking back on how Congress perceived some of the risks and outcomes of a bankruptcy
"Major confusion developed throughout the hearings [on ELGA] as to what would happen to government contracts should Lockheed go bankrupt. Secretary Packard felt sure that all government contracts would be completed, despite bankruptcy, although delays and cost increases would probably result. But what about major subcontractors of the L-1011 who are also defense subcontractors? Many claimed that every defense contract that Lockheed had with others would have to be renegotiated.

Others argued that bankruptcy would actually improve performance in government contracts. With Lockheed the government was subsidizing an inefficient and wasteful producer. Transferring these contracts to others would result in new ideas, new management techniques and better cost control. Major competitors to Lockheed felt sure they cold take over the defense portions of Lockheed's contracts and would do so with delight. Most of these projects were making a profit for Lockheed during this time frame."

The following was put up by Lockheed as collateral for loans issued by the Emergency Loan Guarantee Board (and thus suggests assets that would be sold in bankruptcy):
1) The entire capital stock of the following subsidiaries -
*Lockheed Air Terminal, Inc.
*Lockheed Electronics Company, Inc.
*Lockheed Properties, Inc.
*Lockheed Shipbuilding and Construction Company
*Lockheed Missiles and Space Corporation
with a total book value of $253 million ($100 million for Lockheed Missiles & Space, $153 million for the rest)
2) Most remaining unpledged improved real estate owned by Lockheed (with the exception being the plant in Marietta, Georgia, which the US government already had a lien on)
3) A security interest in production and other equipment owned by Lockheed and located in LA County.

Incidentally, from February 1972 to December 1973, Lockheed actively sought to merge with General Dynamics. The merger wouldn't have happened - GD wasn't in great shape, and wouldn't be willing to take on long-term debts of up to $700 million (in 1972 dollars). There was also a recapitalization plan with Textron, but that fell through.

Additionally, Lockheed was suffering from other problems in this period - the C-5A program was undergoing delays and cost overruns (which Lockheed had to absorb), the AH-56 was cancelled, and Lockheed Shipbuilding lost some valuable Navy contracts. It was also taking losses on supplying engines for the SRAM. But ultimately, L-1011 is what brought Lockheed to near-ruin.
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Lockheed had substantial debts - there's no way anyone would buy them out before a bankruptcy. It's what would happen after that that's interesting. Among other things, where do the Skunk Works people go? Who picks up the remaining assets of Lockheed when it goes bankrupt, and what happen to them? What happens to the S-3 program - does Ling-Temco-Vought fully take it over? What happens to the widebody market without the L-1011 - is it still big enough for two (DC-10 and 747)?

The implications of ELGA not being passed are also interesting, given the precedent it sets for New York City in '75, and for any future bailouts.

An alternate WI would be to look at what would've happened if Lockheed either lost the C-5 contract to Boeing (which inspired the L-1011 program) or simply rejected the idea of making a commercial airliner before all that much had been sunk into it. L-1011 cost Lockheed tremendously, largely because it had completely overestimated the market for widebodies in the 1970s (in part due to unexpected events (i.e., the oil shock), but also due to an enormously optimistic view of the market by all involved). Lockheed expected, in 1968, to sell 1400 L-1011s, 700 by 1975!
 
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Excerpts from the pages of Flight International...

"Mr Haughton [CEO of Lockheed] has said that he has never seriously considered filing bankruptcy proceedings and has expressed confidence that Lockheed can remain relatively stable financially, assuming that plans to re-structure its borrowing arrangements with commercial institutions were successful."
Flight International, February 11, 1971

"Effects of bankruptcy
Insufficient financing for the TriStar would force cancellation of the transport programme, and Lockheed would be forced into bankruptcy through its inability to meet the huge obligations it already has incurred on the programme. Effects of bankruptcy, beyond the effects of cancellation, are uncertain, as legal authorities indicate the one certainty in bankruptcy
is uncertainty. In the event of bankruptcy it is possible but by no means certain that at least Lockheed's more important military programmes would be continued and with employees on these projects continued in their jobs. But with the wide powers granted trustees, bankruptcy could cause great confusion, abrogation or alteration of agreements, greatly increased costs on Government programmes, and displacements and future hazards for Lockheed employees and more than 60,000 shareholders and bondholders."
Flight International, May 27, 1971 (from a statement issued by Lockheed about hearings on the proposed ELGA)
 
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