Consequences of the success of one of two Ottoman sieges of Vienna

Ridwan Asher · Jun 13, 2009

During the first siege of Vienna in 1529, the conditions, IIRC was like this :
- It was during the time the Ottomans occasionally timed their attacks on the Habsburg in order to lessen the pressure on the Protestants
- More importantly, it was during the first years of Protestanism's very lively emergence in northern europe, as we already know it. Protestanism was kinda pushing southward during these times.

That's all I know...

During the second one in 1683, I'm not very knowledgeable either. But the Polish participation in the defense of Vienna was an important factor during the second siege event. My question is simple, with the conditions possessed by the respective events of siege of Vienna, what will be the consequences of either 1st or 2nd siege succeed ? Austria will surely going to be bled dry. Will we see Habsburgs losing their eastern empire in Austria ? What will be the fate of Bohemia ? How either the successful 1st or 2nd siege of Vienna effect the future policies of the surrounding power in particular, in European powers in general ?

Ridwan Asher · Jun 13, 2009

Okay I was in a hurry back then, that's why the OP may sound quite unclear. I'm basically asking what will be the effects of either successful 1st Ottoman siege of Vienna or the 2nd one.

Valdemar II · Jun 13, 2009

The only one with a chance of succes would be 1529, the one in 1683 was a almost sure disaster.

But 1529 can succed. I can see four scenarios

1: Austria, Styria, Carinthia, Carniola and Croatia is annexed, very unlikely

2: The Habsburg keep Austria, Styria, Carinthia and Carniola, but surrender Hungary to the Ottomans, quite likely

3: The Habsburg rent some mercenaries and raise a pan-German army to throw the Ottomans out and succed, most likely.

4: The Ottomans annex Croatia. Austria, Styria, Carinthia and Carniola is made into a Lutheran vassal of Ottomans either as a (Noble) Republic or Monarchy
The Habsurg keep Northen Hungary (Slovakia). Quite likely if scenario 3 fails.

I find 3 and 4 the most interesting, what compromise do the Emperor have to make to get the German Prince behind him, what will happen to a Lutheran Austria and how will it affect Bohemia which was very Protestant. What compromise do Ferdinand have to make to stay King of Bohemia.

Ridwan Asher · Jun 13, 2009

Valdemar II said:
3: The Habsburg rent some mercenaries and raise a pan-German army to throw the Ottomans out and succed, most likely.

4: The Ottomans annex Croatia. Austria, Styria, Carinthia and Carniola is made into a Lutheran vassal of Ottomans either as a (Noble) Republic or Monarchy
The Habsurg keep Northen Hungary (Slovakia). Quite likely if scenario 3 fails.

I find 3 and 4 the most interesting, what compromise do the Emperor have to make to get the German Prince behind him, what will happen to a Lutheran Austria and how will it affect Bohemia which was very Protestant. What compromise do Ferdinand have to make to stay King of Bohemia.

I think I find the #3 scenario as not so conceivable. While certainly the Ottomans won't be able to hold Vienna for long, wouldn't it be a painful hook on Catholic power in southeastern Germania ? I believe in Pasha's point that this is certainly going to be huge boost for Protestanism, and if maybe in a century or two an anti-Ottoman Pan-German coalition will be formed, it'll be by Lutherans instead. Or should I say anti-Hungary ? Because the way I see it, without the presence of serious threatening power in the country that is dangerously positioned for their interest in Hungary, I see it that the Ottomans will immediately lease their directly-controled portion of Hungary to the Hungarians. After this happens, Hungary will be anything but a de facto Ottoman province, but I doubt they will see the Balkans as the most suitable room for their possible future expansion....

Btw, how was Prussia's position during this time ? Will they gain anything from this ?

Grand Prince Paul II. · Jun 13, 2009

Ridwan Asher said:
Btw, how was Prussia's position during this time ? Will they gain anything from this ?

At this time Prussia was a newly formed duchy and unimportant outside the Baltic Sea-area (well, except for the Teutonic order).

Ridwan Asher · Jun 13, 2009

Grand Prince Paul II. said:
At this time Prussia was a newly formed duchy and unimportant outside the Baltic Sea-area (well, except for the Teutonic order).

Okay then. Who was currently in charge in Brandenburg during this time ?

Susano · Jun 13, 2009

Ridwan Asher said:
Okay then. Who was currently in charge in Brandenburg during this time ?

The Hohenzollern. But the "sand box of the Empire" is a VERY unimportant state at that time. Important imperial states at that time would be the Saxonies, Bavaria and the Clevean Territories...

Grand Prince Paul II. · Jun 13, 2009

Susano said:
The Hohenzollern. But the "sand box of the Empire" is a VERY unimportant state at that time. Important imperial states at that time would be the Saxonies, Bavaria and the Clevean Territories...

Not quite. At this time the Electors of Brandenburg and Mainz were brothers and allies.

Valdemar II · Jun 13, 2009

Ridwan Asher said:
I think I find the #3 scenario as not so conceivable. While certainly the Ottomans won't be able to hold Vienna for long, wouldn't it be a painful hook on Catholic power in southeastern Germania ? I believe in Pasha's point that this is certainly going to be huge boost for Protestanism, and if maybe in a century or two an anti-Ottoman Pan-German coalition will be formed, it'll be by Lutherans instead. Or should I say anti-Hungary ? Because the way I see it, without the presence of serious threatening power in the country that is dangerously positioned for their interest in Hungary, I see it that the Ottomans will immediately lease their directly-controled portion of Hungary to the Hungarians. After this happens, Hungary will be anything but a de facto Ottoman province, but I doubt they will see the Balkans as the most suitable room for their possible future expansion....

The Habsburgs is rich like hell, and almost willing to make any compromise to get Vienna back. So I see them promiss to leave the Lutherans in peace and giove more power to the Princes (a compromise they did make 20 years later in OTL).

Btw, how was Prussia's position during this time ? Will they gain anything from this ?

Brandenburg was a medium German power somewhat badly positioned between the stronger Denmark and Saxony.

Grand Prince Paul II. said:
Not quite. At this time the Electors of Brandenburg and Mainz were brothers and allies.

And the Prince-Elector was violent anti-Luteran and the Archbiscop was mildly anti-Lutheran (could quite likely have ended up in the Lutheran camp).

Ridwan Asher · Jun 13, 2009

Valdemar II said:
The Habsburgs is rich like hell, and almost willing to make any compromise to get Vienna back. So I see them promiss to leave the Lutherans in peace and giove more power to the Princes (a compromise they did make 20 years later in OTL).

That seems to me like assuming that something bad for the Habsburg will happen in Bohemia after Ottomans captured Vienna, which is maybe a likely possibility. But regardless I can still see why will the Habsburg want Vienna back. But will the Ottomans actually be maintaining their hold of the city after they captured it ? Seems like they'll be just sacking, messing around a bit and leave with that whole process virtually uninterupted, leaving Vienna and surroundings dried. Such cost for the Habsburg to pay for fixing that. Conquest of Vienna should be going to have some interesting effects on the Habsburg realm at large.

Also, judging from the your argument there, it seems to me that you think post-Vienna conquest Hungary will be not strong enough to hold Habsburg incursion in the future. Why is that ?

Abdul Hadi Pasha · Jun 14, 2009

Valdemar II said:
The only one with a chance of succes would be 1529, the one in 1683 was a almost sure disaster.

But 1529 can succed. I can see four scenarios

1: Austria, Styria, Carinthia, Carniola and Croatia is annexed, very unlikely

2: The Habsburg keep Austria, Styria, Carinthia and Carniola, but surrender Hungary to the Ottomans, quite likely

3: The Habsburg rent some mercenaries and raise a pan-German army to throw the Ottomans out and succed, most likely.

4: The Ottomans annex Croatia. Austria, Styria, Carinthia and Carniola is made into a Lutheran vassal of Ottomans either as a (Noble) Republic or Monarchy
The Habsurg keep Northen Hungary (Slovakia). Quite likely if scenario 3 fails.

I find 3 and 4 the most interesting, what compromise do the Emperor have to make to get the German Prince behind him, what will happen to a Lutheran Austria and how will it affect Bohemia which was very Protestant. What compromise do Ferdinand have to make to stay King of Bohemia.

I don't find any of these scenarios likely. Here's mine:

The Ottomans sack Vienna, launch some large scale raids an pillage the surrounding lands, then withdraw. The Hapsburgs reoccupy the area, but probably move their center of power to a more secure location, possibly Linz. The upshot would have been a more secure Ottoman hold over Hungary. I don't see any possibility of long-term territorial gain around Vienna, which is just too far away.

The 2nd siege could have been successful, but I think less would have been gained by it, and by this point, the main Ottoman army was defeatable, which it really wasn't in Suleyman's time - which is why the Hapsburgs never even considered facing it.

Abdul Hadi Pasha · Jun 14, 2009

I'm not sure why Vienna is that important. This is the early 16th c, before they had built up a large central bureaucracy, etc. The very fact that the Ottomans took it would likely result in their moving their capital elsewhere. They don't have to exert much effort to get it back, they just have to wait until the Ottomans go home for the winter.

Valdemar II said:
The Habsburgs is rich like hell, and almost willing to make any compromise to get Vienna back. So I see them promiss to leave the Lutherans in peace and giove more power to the Princes (a compromise they did make 20 years later in OTL).

Brandenburg was a medium German power somewhat badly positioned between the stronger Denmark and Saxony.

And the Prince-Elector was violent anti-Luteran and the Archbiscop was mildly anti-Lutheran (could quite likely have ended up in the Lutheran camp).

Valdemar II · Jun 14, 2009

Abdul and Ridwan I want you to look at the map below, it tell why Vienna was a important city, as you can see it give a access to Hungarian Plains which isn't through mountains, while Linz could work somewhat likle that, it position for power projection into Hungary is a lot worse, beside that with Vienna in Ottoman hands, they can will have effective access to southen Moravia (which if I remember correctly was home to some important silver mines), and there's no way the Habsburgs will keep the area they had in westen Hungary without Vienna, even southen Slovakia will end up Ottoman.

Ridwan Asher · Jun 14, 2009

Valdemar II said:
Abdul and Ridwan I want you to look at the map below, it tell why Vienna was a important city, as you can see it give a access to Hungarian Plains which isn't through mountains, while Linz could work somewhat likle that, it position for power projection into Hungary is a lot worse, beside that with Vienna in Ottoman hands, they can will have effective access to southen Moravia (which if I remember correctly was home to some important silver mines), and there's no way the Habsburgs will keep the area they had in westen Hungary without Vienna, even southen Slovakia will end up Ottoman.

I KNOW why Habsburg will want Vienna back ! However as Pasha said I think they will have just to wait the Ottomans to leave to get the already dried up city back. My main point back then is, I was curious wether you were saying that the Habsburg will be able to drive out Ottomans out of Hungary after all this. If yes, why is that ?

Abdul Hadi Pasha · Jun 15, 2009

Valdemar II said:
Abdul and Ridwan I want you to look at the map below, it tell why Vienna was a important city, as you can see it give a access to Hungarian Plains which isn't through mountains, while Linz could work somewhat likle that, it position for power projection into Hungary is a lot worse, beside that with Vienna in Ottoman hands, they can will have effective access to southen Moravia (which if I remember correctly was home to some important silver mines), and there's no way the Habsburgs will keep the area they had in westen Hungary without Vienna, even southen Slovakia will end up Ottoman.

I understand that, but as I said they don't need to sacrifice their position in Germany to get it back when they can just wait for the Ottomans to leave, and there is no particular reason why it needs to be the capital for it to fulfill it's strategic function.

Vienna is on the extreme edge of Ottoman logistical capability, so I think Bohemia is largely protected by distance and Brunn (Brno), and Linz pretty much protects the rest.

Valdemar II · Jun 15, 2009

Ridwan Asher said:
I KNOW why Habsburg will want Vienna back ! However as Pasha said I think they will have just to wait the Ottomans to leave to get the already dried up city back. My main point back then is, I was curious wether you were saying that the Habsburg will be able to drive out Ottomans out of Hungary after all this. If yes, why is that ?

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
I understand that, but as I said they don't need to sacrifice their position in Germany to get it back when they can just wait for the Ottomans to leave, and there is no particular reason why it needs to be the capital for it to fulfill it's strategic function.

Vienna is on the extreme edge of Ottoman logistical capability, so I think Bohemia is largely protected by distance and Brunn (Brno), and Linz pretty much protects the rest.

Moravia not Bohemia.

The problem is that it goes both ways, the Ottoman has sacrifies not insignificant resource to conquer the town, they may just leave again, but the truth is that the Habsburg will just rebuild it, it was not like Vienna was anything special for the time, and the Ottomans will have gotten nothing out of the sack, I doubt the pillaging is worth anything close to what they wasted. So a attempt to keep Vienna is given anything else will be at best be a empty victory or at worst a humiliation. While if they succed in keeping it the Habsburgs has little access to Hungary, and has to protect Linz and Moravia from the Turks. Of course in the end that may be even bigger waste of resources, but to give up after Viennas fall is just stupid, because it would make the entire campaign meaningless.

Abdul Hadi Pasha · Jun 15, 2009

Valdemar II said:
Moravia not Bohemia.

The problem is that it goes both ways, the Ottoman has sacrifies not insignificant resource to conquer the town, they may just leave again, but the truth is that the Habsburg will just rebuild it, it was not like Vienna was anything special for the time, and the Ottomans will have gotten nothing out of the sack, I doubt the pillaging is worth anything close to what they wasted. So a attempt to keep Vienna is given anything else will be at best be a empty victory or at worst a humiliation. While if they succed in keeping it the Habsburgs has little access to Hungary, and has to protect Linz and Moravia from the Turks. Of course in the end that may be even bigger waste of resources, but to give up after Viennas fall is just stupid, because it would make the entire campaign meaningless.

There are benefits in the case of the first siege.

- The Hapsburgs will be disorganized by the loss of Vienna and their prestige harmed, which will directly benefit Protestant forces.

- There is actually plenty of booty in the area, although that is of course a transient advantage

- The Hapsburgs made saving Christendom from the Terrible Turk their raison d'etre, hard to maintain when they can't even hold onto their own capital.

- Having to move the capital away from the border makes Hungary safer for the Ottomans and allows the consolidation of the whole kingdom under the Zapolyas. That's a big benefit for the Ottomans.

The second siege was pointless and ill-advised, to say the least. The only advantage would have been to throw the Haspburg government into total disarray, which would have had a limited short-term benefit.

Ridwan Asher · Jun 16, 2009

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
The second siege was pointless and ill-advised, to say the least. The only advantage would have been to throw the Haspburg government into total disarray, which would have had a limited short-term benefit.

I see.

That being stated, I'm still curious to find out the immediate and long term consequences resulted from the success of the 2nd siege. Throwing the Habsburg away when they are just about to become the most important power in Central Europe than ever should have some interesting effects and should make the face of Central Europe from this point beyond to be quite different from OTL. I'm also interested at how this will effect HRE in general, and also Poland.