Ok, I'd like to ask about how people can use the butterfly effect as absolute justification for things like 'This guy was born 2 years after POD - which is some guy falling over - therefore was not born' or 'This guy was born 3 years before POD - therefore never becomes a general'. I mean honestly, doesn't it just destroy AH's by just giving you excuses for greater divergences?
The Butterfly Effect - Overused?
- Thread starter Wolfhound
- Start date
Philip
Donor
It should not be underestimated. It can, however, be overused as a form of handwavium.
Someone born a few years after after the POD will most likely be different, but similar to the OTL person. If the child is raised by the same parents in the same environment, it is not unreasonable to have his life follow a similar path. However, if the (mis)fortunes of his life depend on the POD -- say the political favor of a now dead king -- then his life is likely to diverge from OTL.
Ignoring it can be just as destructive to AH.
Well, IMO a certain degree of common sense needs to be maintained when applying the butterfly effect. The entire world does not instantly change overnight because of butterflies, but at the same time one should try to avoid the Turtledove-esque dismissal of butterflies with historical figures born decades after the PoD into very different circumstances still being exactly the same as OTL.
Think about conception. That's where I see most immediate butterflies coming into play. For instance:
POD: Bob wears a blue rather than red shirt.
At work, Bob's co-workers treat him slightly differently because of this. He goes home in, say, a bad mood as a result, and when he has sex with his wife, a different sperm fertilizes her egg. A different child is born, and tons of other things change.
An incredible number of little things like that happen every day, and they ripple out like a stone in a pond.
POD: Bob wears a blue rather than red shirt.
At work, Bob's co-workers treat him slightly differently because of this. He goes home in, say, a bad mood as a result, and when he has sex with his wife, a different sperm fertilizes her egg. A different child is born, and tons of other things change.
An incredible number of little things like that happen every day, and they ripple out like a stone in a pond.
My personal feeling, from a writing point of view, is that you want to have differences over time, but in the end it is up to the author's choice. While one can argue outcomes either as slim to none or 50/50 occuring after a POD, in the end if it's storytelling, the author should have final say. There is, however, two extemes that should be avoided - go for the middle ground, some change but not too much
If any of that little diddy made sense haha
If any of that little diddy made sense haha
Actually, the butterfly effect is overused as a handwave for minor events to justify secondary divergences in history. It is underused as a whole, because people understandably want to see historical characters appear anyways. AH is more than being historical, often it's also for entertainment and ironic twists.
Anaxagoras
Banned
I think the butterfly effect is, if anything, vastly underestimated by alt-history fans. When you consider the implications of chaos theory, even an act as minor as moving a tiny pebble a millimeter to the left will, over the course of time, result in a completely different historical timeline.
Someone already mentioned conception, which is quite valid. Another thing to think about is the weather. So many seemingly insignificant factors play into the weather, such as windflow and temperature over even very small areas. Change any one of these factors and you eventually change the weather in significant ways. If it rains in any particular area on a day which, IOTL, saw no rain, it changes everything over the long term. The next day might be more or less the same as IOTL, but the minor changes that take place over a longer and longer period of time, like the aforementioned ripples in a lake, eventually result in a completely different history.
Someone already mentioned conception, which is quite valid. Another thing to think about is the weather. So many seemingly insignificant factors play into the weather, such as windflow and temperature over even very small areas. Change any one of these factors and you eventually change the weather in significant ways. If it rains in any particular area on a day which, IOTL, saw no rain, it changes everything over the long term. The next day might be more or less the same as IOTL, but the minor changes that take place over a longer and longer period of time, like the aforementioned ripples in a lake, eventually result in a completely different history.
The point divergence theory
This should explain the butterfly effect. Lets try to explain it mathematically.
A = event
B = resulting event
C = resulting event of the resulting event
X = POD
A + B + C = OTL
A + B(X) = ATL
As the above posters have stated. Say you go back in time to kill Hitler because everyone hates him. You go back in time to 1927 and stab him in the throat. Yay, you killed him. Now because of his absence, the Nazi party does not rise, Germany stays a weak republic while Russia gains power. WW2 does not happen in the European theater with the Germans who were fascinated by technology. Because of that, the ME-262 is never invented. The Americans and Russians do not get a hold of jet power. The Americans do not begin to learn the basics for jet propulsion, the space race does not exist. (Please forgive me, it is a cut and dry almost ASB butterfly effect theory.) Here is a picture!
This should explain the butterfly effect. Lets try to explain it mathematically.
A = event
B = resulting event
C = resulting event of the resulting event
X = POD
A + B + C = OTL
A + B(X) = ATL
As the above posters have stated. Say you go back in time to kill Hitler because everyone hates him. You go back in time to 1927 and stab him in the throat. Yay, you killed him. Now because of his absence, the Nazi party does not rise, Germany stays a weak republic while Russia gains power. WW2 does not happen in the European theater with the Germans who were fascinated by technology. Because of that, the ME-262 is never invented. The Americans and Russians do not get a hold of jet power. The Americans do not begin to learn the basics for jet propulsion, the space race does not exist. (Please forgive me, it is a cut and dry almost ASB butterfly effect theory.) Here is a picture!
Very good point. However, as was stated before, similar parents, similar environment, the child may be much the same based on its raising and might have the exact same name they'd be given in OTL.
Parents aren't going to know their historically-changing child will have a name deemed "cliche" by Alt History fans/writers. (Ex. Adolf Hitler, Jim Jones, Abraham Lincoln)
One thing I noticed from staring a few pond after a pebble is thrown in: eventually, the pond is still again and you can't detect that ripple was ever there
Something to think about.Philip
Donor
One thing I noticed from staring a few pond after a pebble is thrown in: eventually, the pond is still again and you can't detect that ripple was ever there
A similar thought applies to truly chaotic systems. The local situation can be altered greatly while the global situation is unchanged. Does it rain here today or tomorrow? Does the hurricane make landfall in Florida or the Carolinas? Chaos theory certainly comes into play here with large local effects. However, the climate is relatively stable.
Likewise, the mechanics of the Solar System are chaotic, but no one expects Jupiter to suddenly fly of into interstellar space. There is a global stability. Of course the local situation is still unstable. A small collision in the Kuiper Belt could result in mass extinctions on Earth.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
But astronomy and meteorology are governed by laws. Can you say the same thing about history? And how much is local and global WRT history? What does local even mean?
Try butterflying away Alexander the Great, Jesus, Muhammad, Napoleon, or Hitler and see how local the effects are then.
I think the fact that you can create a humanly understandable cause-and-effect chain for its divergence from OTL disqualifies this for the butterfly effect.
Here's mine.
You go back in time and stab Hitler in 1927. Because of this, traffic is lighter a few minutes later (Hitler's car isn't in it), so Fritz makes it home earlier. His wife Ada is just about to finish a book; this interruption by the arrival of her husband makes her feel the ending is trite, rather than simply blasé. Over dinner, she thus goes into a longer discussion of the ending; Fritz drops his fork due to chaotic effects from his early return. This causes Ada to remember that some distant acquaintances of theirs are hosting a party in a week; however, they decline the invitation, in slightly different words to what they would say had Ada remembered ten minutes later, as IOTL. The acquaintances thus, in describing the declining, use slightly different words, and so a discussion with their next-door neighbors goes on longer. This has more chaotic effects on the neighbors, meaning that, instead of getting to work safely, the husband has an auto accident.
Meanwhile, in America, Joe, who reads the Munich paper, notes the report of a dead guy in an alleyway, and, instead of tossing the paper into the fireplace before sitting down, tosses it in after sitting down, and misses. He gets up and retrieves it, tossing it into the fireplace more accurately, and, grumpily, turns on the radio. It takes him a little longer to tune it than IOTL, so he misses the beginning of the broadcast he wanted. This makes him even grumpier, so he has a bad dream that night.
Two days later, it's raining when it didn't IOTL (due to a later influx of hot air from Joe's chimney), so Joe, walking to the grocery store, is slowerand encounters his friend Bob. He mentions, in passing, the bad dream. This lodges in Bob's consciousness, so, when Bob has to write a psychology paper a week later, he mentions it (due to other butterflies, into which I will not go, it is different in many other aspects). Due to the aforementioned changes, he gets an 80% instead of a 79%...
At a funeral in Munich, two young cousins get into a game of make-believe. Due to this (partially; their personal lives are going completely off OTL now), one of them gets into a fight in kindergarten a few days later. The other becomes a delinquent a decade later, and the changes escalate, and escalate, and escalate...
Suppose I had not typed the American parts of that above narrative. I would have finished sooner, and thus go look at the rest of the forum at a different time, with different thoughts in my head. I would go to bed in a different emotional state, and so would the dozens of other people seeing my contributions. They will breathe differently, changing the air currents in their rooms, and messing up the weather within a few weeks at most. Different conceptions will occur, and different accidents will occur, sending the world off track very quickly.
It's said that you can reach just about anybody in the world through a chain of about 6 mutual acquaintances. If I'm happier, that will impact the people I know, and they will affect theirs, and eventually a presidential candidate will make a gaffe that could cost him the election.
Philip
Donor
I think philosophers still debate that. Either way it is irrelevant. The use of the term Butterfly Effect and Chaos Theory to history is allegorical.
The border is fuzzy even under strict mathematical laws.
And we fall into a debate on the Great Man Theory.
My apologies for the long-windedness of the following post in advance.. I had to try to put all of my thoughts down so I could understand how I'm using the butterfly effect in my own TL designs.
Why do we always argue from the extremes? The Story Tellers are right...the Butterfly Effect is allegorical. The Mathematical Purists are right...over time everything will be affected by chaos theory and the Butterfly Effect but that's the key...over time. How "long" does it really take for one wing flap to make perceptable changes in a timeliine's weather? Days, months years, decades?
Similarly, in terms of human interaction, we accept that there are trends and large scale events that affect the world we live in. These aren't determinstic but they do have "weight" or momentum and they don't change direction on a dime. This is clear everytime one of us hops up onto our soapbox and shouts ASB...Japan can't make planning decisions on November 30, 1941 that will allow a successful nvasion of Pearl harbour.
What I've always wondered about is why the random effects always seem to increase divergence. I suppose it's because we as story-tellers want to show how clever and knowledgeable we are by creating the most divergent ATL we can. Shouldn't a significant number of the random variations push the "path" of the ATL back towards the OTL?
Level of perception is key here. With god-like perception we can see the cause-effect chains at every level but without that level of perception, we see two events and shout "Butterfly Effect" because we don't know how the two things are related. Both example of Adolf Hitler dying showed this, to me anyway. They both are effectively single cause-effect chains
Where I think the butterfly effect really comes into play is at the intersections of two different cause-effect chains, because then you really can't tell how the cause and effect are related without clear perception of both chains, and then it multiplies from there to the point where everything is mutable and Jupiter can move off its orbit.
After that long-winded theory session, I think the Butterfly Effect in our story-telling needs to follow from a few important logical principles. From these, my perception of the effect is that the overall random effects and interactions of multiple cause-effect chains do merge into a perceptable ripple effect spreading "outwards" from the initial divergence. The speed of the ripple is largely determined by factors like:
David
Why do we always argue from the extremes? The Story Tellers are right...the Butterfly Effect is allegorical. The Mathematical Purists are right...over time everything will be affected by chaos theory and the Butterfly Effect but that's the key...over time. How "long" does it really take for one wing flap to make perceptable changes in a timeliine's weather? Days, months years, decades?
Similarly, in terms of human interaction, we accept that there are trends and large scale events that affect the world we live in. These aren't determinstic but they do have "weight" or momentum and they don't change direction on a dime. This is clear everytime one of us hops up onto our soapbox and shouts ASB...Japan can't make planning decisions on November 30, 1941 that will allow a successful nvasion of Pearl harbour.
What I've always wondered about is why the random effects always seem to increase divergence. I suppose it's because we as story-tellers want to show how clever and knowledgeable we are by creating the most divergent ATL we can. Shouldn't a significant number of the random variations push the "path" of the ATL back towards the OTL?
Level of perception is key here. With god-like perception we can see the cause-effect chains at every level but without that level of perception, we see two events and shout "Butterfly Effect" because we don't know how the two things are related. Both example of Adolf Hitler dying showed this, to me anyway. They both are effectively single cause-effect chains
Where I think the butterfly effect really comes into play is at the intersections of two different cause-effect chains, because then you really can't tell how the cause and effect are related without clear perception of both chains, and then it multiplies from there to the point where everything is mutable and Jupiter can move off its orbit.
After that long-winded theory session, I think the Butterfly Effect in our story-telling needs to follow from a few important logical principles. From these, my perception of the effect is that the overall random effects and interactions of multiple cause-effect chains do merge into a perceptable ripple effect spreading "outwards" from the initial divergence. The speed of the ripple is largely determined by factors like:
- concentration of political power (so it's easier in some ways to get large scale changes in a medieval setting than in a modern setting, Henry VIII dropping dead of a heart attack will have effects soomer than Joe Bloggs dying in the trenches at the Somme, just because of who Henry VIII was),
- geography (yes, over time everything will be affected but I can't believe that Henry VIII dropping dead of a heart-attack will have perceptable differences in China for years) and
- speed of communication (again if Henry VIII dies at the battle of the spurs on August 16, it can't have perceptable effects in England until the news of his death actually reaches England and even then it will affect different parts of England at diferent times as the news reaches them)
- probability/weight of previous decisions (what really are the chances of something happening. Henry dies of a heart attack and the earl of Surrey decides to join a monastery as a result...possible but likely??)
- Finally, and most imprtantly, the amount of narrativium present in the ATL, to use Terry Pratchett's fabulous element. Another poster noted that we usually use the Effect to slide in a second POD to help with the story. Personally, I try to set up a random element in my TLs to simulate the Butterfly Effect and to keep everything from becoing too scripted. I'll usually fix one thing to hang the story on but...
David
Here is a conflicting thought as well. If the writer believes in fate, that everything happens for a reason. For example, you might be able to wound Hitler, but not kill him.
The biggest direct impact, I'd say, is on weather and that then affects conception, with every child born after the PoD having only a 50% chance of even being the same gender. As the effects of a change would probably propagate through the atmosphere at approximately the speed of sound (assuming we ignore the effects of radioactive particles in the atmosphere decaying occuring at slightly different location), then that gives us a good idea of when things would start changing.
Hendryk
Banned
I personally tend to err on the side of restraint when it comes to butterflies, and consider that people's lives only begin to diverge from OTL in a significant way only once a noticeable side-effect of the POD has reached them one way or the other.
To take an example, in my TL the POD is that the provisional president of the Republic of China has an earlier kidney failure, and dies in 1912 rather than 1916. There is a specific individual, who in OTL was born in New York in 1916 of Armenian parents, whose birth I intend to butterfly away. In order to do that, though, I first have to figure out in what ways the different development in domestic Chinese politics could already have been felt in places like Armenia and NYC three to four years later.
Agreed - the whole point of the butterfly effect is that small changes CAN have big repercussions, not that they always do.
Max Sinister
Banned
While kids raised in the same environment will share a lot of traits with their OTL equivalents, the different sperm will make a lot of differences. Just to mention the most obvious: Half of the people born after the Butterfly Effect hits them will be born with the other sex. (Jared used this in DoD: Queen Victoria became Edward VII instead, Harriet Beecher-Stowe became a Harold...)