The Nazi Doolittle Raid

In the 40s the Nazis had a plan to bomb New York using conventional bombers, then have the crewmen bail out and be recovered by U-boat. It was dismissed as costing too much in planes and manpower for too little damage. But, what if-

In the late 30s the Japanese give the Germans some of the bioweapons that they were working on and the Germans have perfected them by 1940. The main Japanese objectives in OTL were to weaponise anthrax and bubonic plague. I'm guessing the latter would probably be more effective, so I'm going to use that.

The Germans do not use the weapon on the British or Soviets for the same reasons as they did not use gas in OTL (fear of retribution). However, plague is experimented with as a Final Solution tool, but dismissed as too slow and inefficient.

The Japanese bomb Pearl Harbour on schedule, but give the Germans more of a warning and the Germans set up their raid on New York using plague bombs. The raid is fairly successful as NY has little air defence and it is a surprise attack, though the USN manages to sink two of the U-boats recovering crewmen. Panic sweeps through the city and the Nazis hint that the NY immigrant 'untermenschen' will infect the rest of the US. Most Americans treat this as the rubbish it is, but a few begin to ostracise all foreign immigrants out of fear. Now the US is as dumbstruck as it was after Pearl Harbour in OTL, but ten times over. As the Germans bombed the mainland USA rather than just Hawaii, they will probably be seen as the greater threat and FDR will be pressured to send US bombers to Britain in order to wreak revenge attacks on Germany. Expect Germany to lose somewhat faster (D-day will be feasible earlier in this ATL) and Japan to have more of a reprieve. Probably the Soviets get somewhat less of Eastern Europe and less of a share in the German occupation, but may declare war against Japan earlier and grab all of Manchuria, Sakhalin and Hokkaido.

Comments?

I said, comments?

Thande said:

I said, comments?

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Don't know why the Germans would do this as they might as well bomb their own armies and cities and save everyone the trouble. Expect bubonic plauge to spread across Europe as the US retaliates in Germany. The Pacific front is almost ignored as the Germans are suddenly eveyones #1 enemy instead of Japan. Spreading the plague in the US just made the Allied war propeganda MUCH easier. Virtually the entire US military is thrown against Europe as the Nazi attrocity is much,much worse then Pearl Harbor. If the Japanese are smart they dig into what they have taken and call off any offenses. Do everything to make sure that the US is focused almost exclusively on Germany. The invasion of France is pushed up at least a year and Germany would really be in for it post-war.

Thande said:

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I agree with Brilliantlight, tho the German use of bioweapons now greenlights the Allied use of them on German cities. The British Government would probably be the first to retaliate with biochemical bombs once the US declares war. The war becomes very ugly very fast. The Japanese on the other hand will face the worst of it once the US gets around hitting them after perfecting bioweapon bombing in Europe.

David S Poepoe said:

I agree with Brilliantlight, tho the German use of bioweapons now greenlights the Allied use of them on German cities. The British Government would probably be the first to retaliate with biochemical bombs once the US declares war. The war becomes very ugly very fast. The Japanese on the other hand will face the worst of it once the US gets around hitting them after perfecting bioweapon bombing in Europe.

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Since the German government knows this it begs the question WHY they would do this. It is one thing to slaughter helpless Jews and another to do so against the #1 economic power on the planet. In the first case they can do nothing to retaliate and in the second you it is inevitible that you will be hit worse then you can hit them.

Brilliantlight said:

Since the German government knows this it begs the question WHY they would do this. It is one thing to slaughter helpless Jews and another to do so against the #1 economic power on the planet. In the first case they can do nothing to retaliate and in the second you it is inevitible that you will be hit worse then you can hit them.

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Germany was stupid enough the declare war on the U.S. in OTL, along with a bunch of other moves. Maybe a better PoD would be that Germany doesn't declare war on the U.S. in 1941, and Germany is able to conquer Russia or defeat it into submission. Hitler goes into a loony stage and orderes a biological attack on major American cities. As soon as the final bombs fall, FDR will declare war and biobombs will start hiting German cities.

Mikey said:

Germany was stupid enough the declare war on the U.S. in OTL, along with a bunch of other moves. Maybe a better PoD would be that Germany doesn't declare war on the U.S. in 1941, and Germany is able to conquer Russia or defeat it into submission. Hitler goes into a loony stage and orderes a biological attack on major American cities. As soon as the final bombs fall, FDR will declare war and biobombs will start hiting German cities.

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True, but that would be an act of lunacy even for Hitler. However the man was crazy enough he could do anything. However would his order be obeyed? The German military would have been aware of the consequences.

The USA didn't have any bioweapons in 1941. That's why I made a POD early enough for the Japanese to give their research to the Germans and gave them a few years to develop it. FDR might try to retaliate with something similar, like gas, but he simply wouldn't have the option to use bioweapons. As it is, the raid would be a very bad idea for Germany in the long run, but that didn't stop them declaring war on the USA in OTL, did it? And Hitler really hated New York (I think it was all the Slavic and Jewish immigrants) and made it Priority One target if the Germans had managed to build their A-bomb before the collapse in 1945.

Form of the counterattack

The US would be well aware of the possibility of a bio-weapon getting out of control--it is by definition out of control as soon as it's successful. Would they perhaps use gas instead of bioweapons? It seems a less insane course of action, IMHO.

Given a Weaponized Mubonic Agent in the early 1940's , and advanced knowledge of Pearl, you would send in several dozen small Bombs in the Diplomatic pouch, and spread them out over the country. You would not send easily identified Bombers so that everyone knew who done it.

This may slow down the American response by 12-18 months, but it would end up the same.

What I see is Germany sending a small number of Bombers on one way trips as far as they could go, into the Russian back lines, As a First strike on the opening day of Barbarossa. Hitler would see this a a Way to depopulate the Coming new German Lands, as well as a Battle tactic.

Good points, but I'm not speculating: in OTL the Nazis DID have plans to bomb New York (and specifically New York) in the way I've outlined, though not with bioweapons (which is the POD: it gives them a good enough degree of damage to accept the cost in irreplaceable planes).

NHBL said:

The US would be well aware of the possibility of a bio-weapon getting out of control--it is by definition out of control as soon as it's successful. Would they perhaps use gas instead of bioweapons? It seems a less insane course of action, IMHO.

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That is certainly possible and could be used to kill tons of Germans as well. No matter what Germany is REALLY in for it!

Assuming the Manhattan project still goes on as planned, there will be much less hesitation in building more bombs, and turning Germany and Japan into nuclear wasteland. If Germany does manage to use biological agents on the Eastern Front, the Soviets are likely to retaliate with everything they've got, which at this point, I presume, is chemical weapons only. The bloodbath in Europe is much worse, and by the end of war both the Allies and the Soviets will have "out-for-blood" attitude, where the simple partition of Germany will not suffice. The arms race post-war is more intense, as the USSR perceives its vulnerability to nuclear assault (and the US' lack of hesitation in using nukes).

Providing the USSR leadership stays fairly similar to OTL, with more intense arms race it means earlier collapse, as USSR economy is geared for war, and sooner or later it would fail - presuming US leadership stays the same as well, and the buildup of forces could be sustained in the eyes of the public opinion. If not, the US could be destroyed politically, just as USSR could be economically.

The things would really start getting interesting if we presume that biological agents kill the people that in OTL rose to leadership positions and defined both US and USSR policies in the years to come. If, say, Stalin dies in 1941 or 1942, would USSR still be committed to arms race, especially if a moderate (Zhukov?) replaces him? If Roosevelt dies in 1941 or 1942, would the US leadership still commit to the same course? If the nuclear bomb is used on Germany in, say, 1944, and it happens to kill or incapacitate Hitler, would Germany seek quick exit out of war, aligning itself with the Western allies in order to stave off the Soviets? The possibilities here are endless.