Hitler in power earlier?
- Thread starter Chris
- Start date
In some sorts, yes.
Depends on how much earlier.
With the unstable political climate in Germany, the possibility for earlier election and strange results is always there.
With the depression hitting Germany in 1930, a higher turnout is possible.
BUT: But winning an election doesn´t mean governing. Hitler was not really accetable for Reichspräsident Hindenburg and his camarilla, given his background.
I really see more possibilities of Hitler NOT coming to power in the 30s than him coming to power.
Depends on how much earlier.
With the unstable political climate in Germany, the possibility for earlier election and strange results is always there.
With the depression hitting Germany in 1930, a higher turnout is possible.
BUT: But winning an election doesn´t mean governing. Hitler was not really accetable for Reichspräsident Hindenburg and his camarilla, given his background.
I really see more possibilities of Hitler NOT coming to power in the 30s than him coming to power.
Well, he tried a coup in '23. Imagine if that had succeeded and he had spent an additional 10 years preparing for war?
Of course, considering Hitler's personality, it is more likely that he would have started the war a decade earlier instead.
Of course, considering Hitler's personality, it is more likely that he would have started the war a decade earlier instead.
Hansmeister said:
Success in the coup of 1923 is highly unlikely, and even if it had worked,. Hitler would propbably not have been in power anywhere near as absolutely as he was after '33-'35. He had relied in Ludendorff to support him and supply muscle, but the price for that would have been an increased role for traditional conservatives and the Freikorps. In fact, Hitler not having German nationality until the early 30s, he might have had to allow Ludendorff to become President or CHancellor (or both). Popular support would likely have been overwhelmingly behind his more prominent partners rather than the 'Austrian hothead'. That isn't saying things would go better (Ludendorff was pretty nutty in his own right), but I don't think rthere'd ber the same 'Führerstaat' as in OTL.
If the NSDAP managed to grab power without Ludendorff (ie the coup had succeeded even after its prominent backers dropped it like a hot potato), that would make another interesting POD: Hitler in power at the head of a party that is still internally divided, with a strong commitment to the 'Socialism' bit in National Socialism, with credible rivals for public affection and status, and without the support of big business that made him more conciliatory and pro-Capitalist. You could see genuine Socialist reform, expropriation of major industries, and measures to break up trusts and close down the stock market. In addition, you would probably see all kinds of pogrom-style nastiness against Jews, Social Democrats, Communists and such, but also against 'exploiters' and 'war profiteers' (WWI-made fortunes rankled if you had spent four years in the mud of Flanders and had your litle savings wiped out by inflation). I could even see many communists coming over into the SA. Needless to say, the Röhm purge would not be possible. Instead, the SA would play a larger role in internal affairs, perhaps co-opt policing and military function the way the more 'respectable' SS did OTL.
The situation allows him a good deal of leeway. The currency reform and the possibility of economic growth (the only way was up, the question is how fast) could make him look acceptable, especially if he finds some kind of arrangement with the business community like Mussolini did. The Allies might not be happy with him insisting on a reversal of Versailles, but I doubt France or Britain would have gone to war over it. France might just keep the Saar, and both impose sanctions, but in the balance I think Russia was by far the greater worry, and a rival, 'tame' form of Socialism could have looked too good not to foster...
I have no clue how this would go on, but I'd assume war to be inevitable in the medium term. Oddly enough, the closest allies for this regime in the political sense were those it would be likeliest to go into confrontation with: Austria's emerging 'Ständestaat', the military government in Poland, Mussolini's Italy (over Tyrol and a possible Anschluss) and the USSR under Stalin. I think the pendulum could have swung either way. Maybe Germany heads a coalition of East European states into the invasion of Soviet Russia in 1930 (what with economic crisis hitting hard and the need to give the unemployed something to do...)? Or maybe, the confrontation with the western Allies is too fresh in the memory and all German effort is poured into the coming war over the Saar and Alsace-Lorraine? What would Röhm want? How much anti-Slavic sentiment balances how many sympathies for Communism? Early Nazism was very much a movement of the disappointed little guy.
Plus, hat kind of state would he have been able to build with the traditional elites still fairly hostile to him? I would expect an earlier Nazi Germany to be a good deal less organised and orderly onm the surface (never mind underneath - other people couldn't create that much chaos in government if they tried to). There would probably be more earnest and farther-reaching attempts at realising the odder ideas of the right fringe (racially-based multiple marriages, neo-Germanic cultic practises, dissolution of the churches, de-urbanisation etc.). A whiff of Stalinism, if you will. After all, this Hitler did not win on a platform of stability and continuity but on one of national revolution, and he is much less beholden to corporate sponsors and power elites. Scary... but in the final analysis also very likely easier to overthrow.
Chris said:I'd be very interested in a timeline for my site if you could write one, hint hint.
Chris
I don't do timelines very well, but I'll try - no promises, though...
Chris said:I'd be very interested in a timeline for my site if you could write one, hint hint.
Chris
Here goes. And now I need to get to bed...
Comments, anyone?
Beer Hall Putsch Timeline
1921
- Congress passes the 'Support of Communism Act', forbidding US loans and investment to states that do not combat Communism. As a reaction, many nations undertake steps to meet US requirements. Germany's government depends on the toleration by the KPD and USPD and can not follow suit. US credit for Germany drops to a trickle.
- moderate-conservative Fehrenbach government falls overeconomic decline. SPD forms new government
1922
- Allies vigorously enforce collection of reparations due. France threatens invasion.
- Fighting between German right-wing paramilitaries and Polish police and troops in newly Polish territories. Forced 'polonisation' ensues, refugees cross into Germany in their thousands.
- SPD government falls, succeeded by a right-wing government of National Democratic Party, German Democratic Party and Catholic 'Center' Party.
1923
- Hyperinflation in Germany reaches its peak
- Right-wing government falls. Elections show consierable gains for USPD and KPD, commensurate losses for SPD, GDP and Center. Right-wing parties hold. MInority government formed by SPD, GDP and Center
- Hitler and Ludendorff agree on a contingency plan to take power after the model of Mussolini in the event of a Communist takeover being attempted.
- French invade the Ruhr to enforce reparations. German government can not agree on a coherent reaction.
- SPD-KPD coalition regional governments in Saxony and Thuringia declare 'The proletariat will no longer bear the legacy cost of the criminal war of the bourgeoisie'. Reichstag SPD-caucus split.
- State of emergency declared
- Reichswehr moves into Saxony. Mutinies in two regiments ensue as NCOs call on the troops "Workers, do not fire on fellow workers!"
- Hitler's men march on the Feldherrenhalle in Munich. Soldiers and Freikorps join them after Ludendorff calls on 'all loyal Germans' to support the 'movement of national liberation'. Munich becomes the first 'nationally liberated' city and a focus for Freikorps collecting in expectation of a civil war.
- Communist uprisings in Hamburg, Halle, Leuna, Leipzig and Dresden.
- Governing coalition split. National Democratic party and National Socialists move to expel and outlaw Communist party. Motion is carried. Social Democrats leave parliament in protest.
- Bavaria and Wurttemberg declare for Ludendorff. Local Reichswehr units join with Freikorps to suppress Communists.
- Spartakist risings in Saxony and Thuringia spread. Communist workers in Bremen, Dortmund, Frankfurt and Berlin declare general strike.
- French troops seal off the Ruhr, brutally break up strikes in support of Communist risings in Germany
- November 14th: remaining parties in Reichstag declare President deposed and call on Ludendorff to aid in suppressing Communist insurgents. Ludendorff made 'President for the duration of the crisis'
- loyal Reichswehr, police and Freikorps integrated into the SA command structure enter Communist areas. Dresden, Halle and Leuna see savage street fighting and mass executions. By December, the only remaining Communist pocket is the Soviet Republic of Hamburg and Altona.
1924
- January 10th: Reichswehr and SA mass outside of Hamburg. Hitler hold his famous 'Tag der Abrechnung' ('Day of Reckoning') speech on January 12th. The twin cities are taken in a six-day battle. An undisclosed number of executions follow. Exile Communist organisations claim 20,000 shot or drowned ("Blutbad von Hamburg").
- First anti-Jewish pogroms take place nationwide
- January 24th: Reichstag passes motion of thanks to Ludendorff and charges him with restoring the state to order. New interim government formed on January 28th:
President Ludendorff
Chancellor Hitler
Minister of the Army Lettow-Vorbeck
Minister of the Interior Hermann Goering
Minister of the Economy Hjalmar Schacht
Röhm is appointed 'Reichsführer SA', not officially a government position
- Soviet Union declares "eternal enmity for the butchers of the working classes", aiding to the credibility of Ludendorff's government with the Western powers
- February 18th: Currency reform announced. As of March 1st, the Deutsche Reichsmark (DRM) replaces the hopelessly devalued Reichsmark (M)
- February 23rd: Calvin Coolidge lifts sanctions on Germany, now firmly in the Anticommunist camp
- Elections slated for October.
- Ludendorff government begins negotiations on the question of reparations. France insists on full repayment, but is pressured by Britain and US to accept debt rescheduling. Massive US loans to re-establish German gold standard and aid in repayment.
- Poincaré loses elections. French troops leave Ruhr.
- Labor unions and workers' clubs are forcibly integrated into the 'National Socialist Movement'
- Economic situation in Germany begins to improve in time for the election.
- October election: Communists and USPD are barred, many SPD politicians arrested. GDP and Center Party lose heavily, SPD is almost completely wiped out. Governing parties NDP, Ludendorff's newly formed National Liberation Party and Hitler's NSDAP win majority. Interim Government stays in power.
- 'Germanenjugend' instituted. State-sponsored NSDAP organisation offers young boys and girls of 'Aryan' descent sports, crafts, travel and a feeling of importance. The group is strongly geared towards national indoctrination. The international boy scouts association refuses recognition.
- Negotiations with Italy begin on a treaty of mutual assistance and economic cooperation
1925
- Treaty with Italy signed: German troops train with Italian army, German military R&D is transferred to Italian companies.
- SA institutionalises 'Betriebsschutzgruppen': former Reichswehr and Freikorps are given preferential employment and extra pay in return for membership in paramilitary organisations inside large companies whose ostensible purpose is to 'provide security and protect the company from Communist moles'. All members get two afternoons a week off for training and keep guns at home. The 'Betriebsschutzgruppen' serve as the nucleus of a future German army, paid for through contributions of the industry. Röhm heartily approves of this 'fat-cat tax'. Much of the revolutionary fervor of the SA is dampened by safe, well-paid jobs.
- New national flag passed: black cross on white with a swastika in the center, the top left corner black, white and red.
- France under Herriot begins rapprochement with Soviet Union, Britain signals disapproval
- First crisis inside the Ludendorff government: anti-Jewish laws become subject of heated debate. Eventually, Hitler gets his way and Jews are legally barred from
- public office, military service or state employment
- owning businesses that employ non-Jews
- marrying non-Jews
- practising law, medicine, or any other academic profession
Ludendorff shows first signs of detachment and retreat into a figurehead function.
- General strike in Britain. Organisers found to have Soviet contacts. British govt. ratchets up anticommunist policies.
- Attempted coup by Soviet sympathisers in Mexico foiled with US aid.
1926
- Pilsudski-coup in Poland
- first steps against 'Ultramontanism' taken by German govt. Catholic church subject to state supervision of seminaries and schools, taxation of church property made a policy issue
- Concordate with the German Lutheran church. The Synod undertakes to teach 'a national Christianity'. Ludendorff disapproves, but attends the ceremony.
- Treaty of Genoa, negotiated through Italian intermediaries, leads to French retreat from the demilitarised Rhineland.
- Britain forwards concessions on German re-armament in the interest of creating 'a strong bulwark between the nations of the West and the Soviet menace'. France balks.
- uniformed 'Reichsarbeitsdienst' (labor service) made mandatory for all men between 18 and 20. Public works projects and public services are undertaken by the members who receive both vocational and paramilitary training.
- State police, intelligence services and internal security placed under the command of the Reichsführer SA. Goering threatens to resign, but is appeased by Hitler.
- For the first time Ludendorff does not hold a speech to open the Reichstag. The task is delegated to Hitler.
- Hitler forms the 'Ministry of Propaganda' and appoints Julius Streicher to head it
1927
- British-negotiated Treaty of Hague: Germany is permitted a civil aircraft industry, an air force of 500 aircraft, heavy artillery, and airships. The Reichswehr is extended to 250,000 men. In return, Germany signs nonaggression treaties with France, Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Poland and formally renounces all territorial claims.
- Showdown in government: the traditionalist Reichswehr command is becomning too powerful. On June 15th, SA Betriebsschutzgruppen and police arrest 47 members of the OHL. A tense standoff develops in Hammelburg, where the commander of the infantry school is defended by his troops. After two hours of sporadic fighting, he surrenders himself to the state police. All accused are paraded in show trials and hanged as 'Soviet Spies'. The new high command is staffed with loyal Nazis.
- German treaty with Lithuania immediately after nationalist coup
- Lettow-Vorbeck, former Army minister, is given the nimonal post of colonial minister.
1928
- The 'new' Reichswehr parades through Berlin. Italian-built and German-made aircraft fly over a stream of new artillery pieces. All are self-propelled 'Sturmgeschütze'. France claims this is a violation of Versailles' prohibition of a tank force. The diplomatic showdown fizzles as large segments of the French population protest the prospect of another war.
- The French right-wing government topples over this loss of face. Elections bring about a left-wing cabinet that approaches Moscow about a treaty of mutual support against possible German aggression.
- US stop French credit
- German 'elections' return absolute majority for governing coalition. NSDAP strongest party, NDP loses heavily.
- German govt. starts a campaign for Jewish emigration. Few nations are prepared to accept the emigrants (who are obliged to leave their entire wealth behind), but the Soviet Union, for propaganda purposes, declares a 'Jewish homeland' open to all comers. The British parliament begins an acrimonious debate on whether to allow immigrants into Palestine or to revive the Uganda settlement scheme once mooted.
1929
- worldwide economic crisis begins with US stockmarket crash
- Germany unilaterally declares the military restrictions if the Versailles treaty void in the face of 'the renewed Bolshevik threat' and its 'obligations to stand by the nations of Europe struggling to remain free'
- Japanese invasion of Manchuria. League of Nations condemns this act of aggression. Germany supports Japan's 'right to assuring its national survival' and leaves the League together with Japan.
- Ludendorff returned unanimously for second five-year term as President. He is, by now, almost completely subservient to Hitler and his health is fading fast.
- Official recognition of 'Asenglaube' (Aesir faith) as a religion in Germany. Ludendorff inducted as first High Priest of the Aesir. Almost 100,000 people attend the first official Summer Solstice ceremony around a 900-ton railway sleeper bonfire in the newly built Nuremberg Arena
1930
- French government collapses over rising unemployment.
- Germany declares its first Four-Year Plan. The NSDAP's adherents of a 'managed economy' win out over the NDP's and NLP's laissez-faire conservatives. Schacht replaced as minister for the economy. Von Schirach and Speer take over aa ministry divided in two: Ministry of Employment (Schirach) and Ministry of Production (Speer). Intake of the Reichswehr is tripled, the Reichsarbeitsdienst offers re-enlistment in senior positions (with a view to future military service in NCO grades or even reserve officer training). Unemployment is kept artificially low.
- Wage and price controls in Germany tightened
- Streicher fired as Minister of Propaganda. Replaced with V. Harlan.
- Oath of loyalty required of all priests in Germany. Thousands of catholic priests refuse and are evicted from their parishes. Many are imprisoned, some die in prison camps.
- Rioting and strikes in Britain and France
- Germany begins deporting Jews to the Soviet Union because "Stalin said he wanted them". They are received at the border, debriefed, and send off to the Jewish homeland in the Far East
1931
- unilateral US debt moratorium
- Germany repudiates all limits to its military power and remilitarises the Rhineland. Territorial claims against Czechoslovakia, France, and Poland are outlined. The main function at this point is drawing attention away from the economic malaise
- France closes the border against Germany and freezes German assets. Neither nation is actually in a position to make war
- Britain condemns the German claims, but offers to act as a go-between if Germany is willing to submit to negotiated settlements
- Purge in the SA, believed to be in reaction to a more pro-Soviet, Communist current spreading among unemployed members disillusioned with the 'New Germany'
- Jewish settlement in Palestine allowed again, but only within strict quotas. The British government does not wish to hand the USSR a propaganda victory. Uganda is suggested as a second option. About 4,000 Jews, mostly from Germany, move there.
1932
- Economic recovery begins in Germany, and is widely trumpeted
- Ludendorff assassinated. Hitler blames Soviet agents. After lying in state for ten days, the body is cremated on a 1,500-ton wooden pyre.
- Hitler becomes 'Führer and Chancellor'. No new President is elected.
- Hungarian right-wing radical government under Gömbös seeks alliance with Germany and Italy
1933
- Roosevelt elected President. New Deal begins
- Germany celebrates the tenth anniversary of its National Revolution and invites the world to an industrial exhibition in Berlin. Impressed by the relative wealth, comfort, and relaxed atmosphere, the world breathes a sigh of relief. Hitler does not seem to want war after all.
- Negotiations with Czechoslovakia begin under British tutelage. Eventually, the Czechoslovakian state cedes the Sudetetenland to Germany in return for guarantees of nonaggression.
1934
- Coup in Latvia. Nationalist dictatorship allies with Germany in fear of the USSR
- Roosevelt issues a stern warning to Japan in view of its aggressive policy in China
- Clashes between Russian and Japanese troops on the Mongolian border.
- Fascist coup in Austria. Austria joins Germany, Tyrol is ceded to Italy.
- Ethnic cleansing and partisan sniping between hungary and Romania. Stalin publicly voices support for Romania
1935
- Armed with Russian materiel and hoping for French support, the Romanian army drives Hungarian-backed insurgents across the border. The Hungarian army meets the invaders in battle, but is mauled severely. In the following negotiations, Czechoslovakia makes claims against Hungary which Germany uses as a pretext to invoke an alliance. German troops invade Czechoslovakia, which in turn invokes its alliance with Yugoslavia and Romania. Yugoslavia declares war on Germany. Italy declares war on Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and Romania.
- Italian troops cross the border near Trieste and invade Yugoslavia.
- German troops advance on Prague, Czechoslovakia surrenders
- France declares war on Germany, prepares for invasion of the Rhineland
- Stalin warns 'the international Fascist gang' from encroaching on 'Romania and other independent states'
- French troops (organised along Russian lines into large tank formations) advance into Germany, but bog down quickly. German strategic bombers range into France. By December, the front is pushed back into Alsace-Lorraine
- Britain declares its strict neutrality and again offers to negotiate, but begins a crash rearmament program
- The US freeze all credit to belligerent nations
1936
- Soviet troops cross into the Baltic states and Poland in an attempt to 'safeguard these peoples against being dragged into the Imperialist war by their criminal government'. The attack into Poland grinds to a halt in the face of fierce resistance. Nonetheless, Pilsudski realises that he can not resist the Russian steamroller for long and asks for German help, promising to cede West Prussia and Posen. Hitler agrees and begins shipping war material and 'advisers' to Poland.
- The German spring offensive pushes the French army back to the Marne and almost to Paris. In the absence of another 'miracle', the government abandons the capital and retreats south. German troops enter the city on May 12th. The French surrender on the 19th. Huge amounts of German war material is shipped East immediately.
- Learning from the experience of the campaigns against Czechoslovakia and France, the Germans begin production of heavy tanks to act as spearheads for their infantry-heavy, Italian-style divisions. French models are confiscated as part of the peace settlement and sent to the beleaguered Poles.
- France must sign a peace ceding Alsace-Lorraine and the Franche Comté, turning over its heavy armaments to the Germans, and pay heavy indemnities. Until the reparations are paid in full, German troops remain in northern France.
- On July 7th, the German army breaks through the Russian front in a massive offensive supported by the entire Luftwaffe. Losses on both sides are staggering, but the Red Army reels back in shock. By the end of the year, German troops have advanced deep into Russia.
- Italian advance into Yugoslavia bogs down. German troops sent to support their ally. Soviet 'volunteer' troops enter Romania to stiffen resistance against the expected invasion.
- Roosevelt loses an election fought on a 'resist totalitarian aggression' platform. America begins a policy of 'cash and carry' delivery to 'all belligerents'. Britain, Germany and Italy go on a shopping spree.
1937
- German offensive continues, but the army suffers severe losses in winter. Stalin withdraws crack divisions from the Far East.
- Unlike in the west and Czechoslovakia, the German troops in Russia set up a reign of terror. Hitler plans to reduce Poland to the status of a helot state, but exterminate huge numbers of Russians and settle the land with Germans and Balts.
- Japan declares war on the Soviet Union. A guarantee of nonaggression is issued to the United States.
- Communist revolution in truncated France. Guerilla warfare against Germany begins, drawing forces away from the eastern front. The military forces of the 'French People's Republic' are quickly crushed, but controlling the country proves a continual drain on resources.
- The British public is appalled by reports about savage cruelty in occupied France.
- Italian troops advance into Algeria, ceded to them in the peace settlement. The local population, promised independence by the French People's Republic, rises in revolt while the French colonial authorities cooperate.
What happens next is your business. Do Britain and the US support Germany and Japan as their 'Anticommunist bulwarks'? Does Stalin win and pushg the boundaries of Communism to the Rhine? Will the US join the war on any side? Will Britain end her shameful neutrality? Will we seea US/GB-German cold war? There is time enough for the war to end before anyone builds a nuke.
Wow! What a detailed timeline! Compliments to the creator!
But wouldn't the French in 1923 be much more willing to kick the Germans in the ass than they were historically in 1936? In 1923, the memory of the war was still there, as well as a professional army that had won WW1. They didn't hesitate to occupy the Rhineland in 1921 over a shallow pretext (a delay in the reparation shipment of telegraph poles) and shoot a whole bunch of people who gave the occupation authorities crap.
But wouldn't the French in 1923 be much more willing to kick the Germans in the ass than they were historically in 1936? In 1923, the memory of the war was still there, as well as a professional army that had won WW1. They didn't hesitate to occupy the Rhineland in 1921 over a shallow pretext (a delay in the reparation shipment of telegraph poles) and shoot a whole bunch of people who gave the occupation authorities crap.
Karl Martell said:Wow! What a detailed timeline! Compliments to the creator!
But wouldn't the French in 1923 be much more willing to kick the Germans in the ass than they were historically in 1936? In 1923, the memory of the war was still there, as well as a professional army that had won WW1. They didn't hesitate to occupy the Rhineland in 1921 over a shallow pretext (a delay in the reparation shipment of telegraph poles) and shoot a whole bunch of people who gave the occupation authorities crap.
I trioed to go around this by positing France is suffering more from internal dissension and has stronger Communist sympathies (having a right-wing government collapse ignominiously over the Rhineland occupation), but basically this is what I kept thinking: How come the French are just watching this?