Penny Flick

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
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What I would like to do with a 19th century timeline is to avoid convergence. There are two tracks here
1- a small change will bring greater changes in its track
2- a lot of events are seemingly unexpected or even random so have them going the other way for no other reason than 'simply because' seems fair enough to me

One caveat would be that historical figures ARE allowed, despite how unlikely it may seem after a century. Here I use Rick Robinson's idea that whereas we may not get the people we had in OTL in a FULLY REALISTIC timeline, we would get SOMEONE, so in order to better engage the reader there is no real harm in using OTL historical figures.

Of course, the caveat to the caveat is that this rule won't apply to royalty in many cases, and to those whose origins are the result of circumstances that in the big picture are unlikely to occur - e.g. if Britain is fighting the USA for much of the century then the likelihood of Churchill's father marrying an American is much reduced.

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Grey Wolf

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I would like to mix all of the following into a timeline...in no particular order :-

The overthrow and murder of the last of the Osmanli and the assumption of the Ottoman throne by a Giray

The survival of Ferdinand, son of Louis Philippe of France and the nipping in the bud of the 1848 revolutions

A child for Friedrich Wilhelm IV - he is rumoured to have had a couple of bastards, his wife's twin sister had several children, theirs was a marriage of love so the lack of children in OTL was unexpected. Change something biological and minor and give him heirs

Franz Josef's father, Franz Karl, not passing over his own succession rights

The survival of Charlotte, daughter of George IV and her son (royalty.nu lists it as a son). This would mean that on George IV's death, Charlotte becomes queen and William, Duke of Clarence becomes King of Hannover. Its worth noting that Charlotte's death was one element in George's decline and her survival may well prolong his life by a few years. Ironically, this may cut William out of the Hannoverian throne, but either way Ernest Augustus looks likely to end up there eventually.

A continued male line for the Netherlands - OTL this hardly seemed unlikely as Willem III had three sons, but they all predeceased him without heirs. Give him a surviving son and then see what happens with regard to Luxembourg. Willem III dies in 1890 and his likeliest son is Willem IV who lived until the age of 39, dying in 1879 (the next likeliest is Alexander who lived until the age of 33 and died in 1884).

Grey Wolf
 
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Grey Wolf

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Whilst these look to be 'merely' dynastic changes they would have a lot of repurcussions. Queen Charlotte and her son (I wonder what name she had in mind ? George ?) would make for a very different Britain from that of William IV, and Victoria.

The end of the Osmanli and the assumption of power by the Giray would lead to troubles across the empire, probable emergence of an independent Janina and effects down the line such as greater power for Mehmed Ali and his Egypt

Ferdinand's survival would mean that 1848 is a purely French thing, with Louis Philippe abdicating and Ferdinand becoming king.

In Austria, Ferdinand will continue until he either dies or is 'abdicated' due to mental instability. This potentially has Ferdinand on the throne until 1875, though considering he would be both mentally deficient and rather ancient by then (born 1793) its likely he would be abdicated earlier, and Franz Karl assume the throne, ruling up to his death (1872 in OTL) whereafter Franz Josef would become emperor...Born 1830 I don't think the butterflies would have got to Franz Josef yet...

Friedrich Wilhelm IV having an heir, or probably more than one heir, means that Prussia is going to go down a different path from the 1850s. Heirs tend to gather around them a court of sorts, so this putative Freidrich Wilhelm V would have an influence even before he came to the throne. No 1848 would also mean a different focus on F-W IV's later reign.

Grey Wolf
 
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Grey Wolf

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An Ottoman Empire severely affected by the end of the Osmanli's in the 1820s would have major repurcussions for Russia. One may in fact see a greater and earlier Russian focus on the Principalities and the Southern Caucasus, and the keeping open of the Straits leading to Russian naval dominance of the Eastern Mediterranean, and the acquisition of bases, or at least basing rights there. A Russian-Egyptian alliance would be intriguing, with Britain and Austria attempting to keep the Ottoman core state intact and away from Russian hands perhaps leading to an 1830s war against Russia. Ottoman weakness may also result in the secession of Mesopotamia which has been under Mameluke rule since the eighteenth (?) century and was only reconquered fully OTL in the 1830s. With Egypt likely to have dominance over Syria and Hejaz, the Ottoman polity would be reduced to Anatolia and Bulgaria-Thrace-Macedonia. What this does for Bosnia is uncertain, but just as in Janina there were independent-minded pashas in Bosnia and one could conceive of a de facto independent Muslim Bosnia emerging from the chaos. If you then throw in a war in the 1830s between Britain and Austria on the one hand and Russia on the other, you may see Russian-backed Montenegrins in Dubrovnik, Bosnia and Janina being courted as allies, and France playing the game any way she can looking for the main chance.

Then of course across the Atlantic you have the United States of America which is being affected by these events in ways both obvious and subtle. For example after 1848 a lot of German refugees settled in Texas (I think that was the date...maybe earlier). Hungarians too after the failure of Kossuth's 1848 revolution. Immigration patterns like these would be different or deleted from history entirely, whilst other tensions may well lead to replacement of these communities with different immigrant ones.

Anglo-American tensions several times came close to war, eg Aristook and Oregon at either end of the 1840s. If the result of the war with Russia in the 1830s is inconclusive, which a lot of wars are when it comes down to it, then politics and foreign affairs within Britain are going to have a different tone. This in turn could impact in Persia, in Central Asia and in China. But it could also mean a greater intransigence over Oregon

Of course, European events may also affect the likelihood of the US-Mexican war in the mid 1840s. If a different president other than Polk is elected, or if a European nation gets involved, or if Mexico has previously been affected by butterflies...

This latter is not completely unlikely.

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Grey Wolf

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It seems unlikely that we can butterfly out the Monroe Doctrine - Charlotte's survival from 1817 would not have had a major effect on British politics by 1823 and Canning would still likely conclude the agreement with the USA.

One could however butterfly IN the establishment of a stable Iturbide empire in Mexico - at one time the imperial forces had defeated the rebels and were in spitting distance of grabing both Santa Anna and Guadeloupe Hidalgo. If the imperial forces had exploited that victory, then without its two most energetic leaders, the republican faction would probably have come to an agreement with Iturbide.

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Grey Wolf

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The Mexican Empire is going to be in an odd position. Despite the Monroe Doctrine, Spain DID in OTL make several sorties against Mexico. In addition, the part of the Monroe Doctrine that states that the system of government in the Americas is different from that in Europe is clearly not the case with a Mexican Empire, nor for that matter with Brazil. Iturbide is therefore going to be looking to the so-called 'naval powers' of Britain and France to help him out against twin foes. As luck would have it, they probably want to - S American trade was very important for Britain, her own Caribbean colonies were important also, and financial investment in a new nation always brings the promise of future reward.

In addition, there is no effective US-Mexican border yet. Sure, there IS one but it consists of the scarcely-populated New Mexico territories and Tejas which is becoming something of a buffer zone.

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Grey Wolf

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Butterflies have a tendency to kick in - if Britain, and probably France, are involved in an all-out Eastern Mediterranean war in the 1830s then the Carlists probably win the First Carlist War in Spain. Only foreign intervention shored up the government forces so Don Carlos would emerge as King Charles V of Spain. This in turn will have major repurcussions of its own down the line. What happens to Isabella ? Unmarried, and young, she may well be sent to a convent to get her out of the way. The way is then open for Charles V, with an heir already in place with his son Charles, to dominate Spain's destiny from a more conservative viewpoint.

Interestingly, OTL the affair of Isabella's marriage in the 1840s actually led to the alienation of Louis Philippe of France who was driven closer to Conservative factions and thus laid part of the foundations for 1848 anyway. SO by having different butterflies, we may be looking at removing another cause of 1848 and simply having the environmental-financial ones lead to L-P's abdication and Ferdinand's accession to the throne

Its a funny thing about timelines though, they tend to get bogged down a lot earlier than one had assumed they would. I am thus currently sitting in the 1840s wondering what happens now !

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Grey Wolf

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I suppose one must study the results of a long but inconclusive war in the Eastern Mediterranean in the 1830s before deciding where things go from here

Let us say that at the end of the war the sides were ranged thus :-

Russia (inc Principalities)
Egypt
Montenegro
Serbia

v

Ottoman Empire rump
Britain
Austria

With France having remaind neutral, and the new state of Greece having being taken under joint British-French-Austrian protection and thus technically neutral

And with Bosnia and Janina tending to play the two sides off against each other


At the peace :-

Montenegro retains Dubrovnik
Serbia occupies the entire Sanjak of Novi Pazar as well as Nish
Janina retains Kosovo, E Macedonia and Epirus
Greece gains Thessaly
Bosnia is recognised as independent but under Austrian protection
Serbia is recognised as independent but under Russian protection
The Principalities are absorbed into Russia as protectorates
The majority of Macedonia, Thrace and Bulgaria remain Ottoman as does Anatolia and Mosul
Mesopotamia/Baghdad is effectively independent
Egypt, although driven from Greece and having lost a lot of its fleet, retains control in Syria, the Hejaz, Yemen and Sudan
Libya and Tunis remain as vassals of the Ottoman Empire, as do Crete and Cyprus

There are no major changes in the Austro-Russian border
The Straits remain open to all warships, but Russia's fleet has suffered greatly


Whilst this has happened, the Mexican Empire has put down a revolt of settlers in Tejas and Carlos V has won the civil war in Spain

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Grey Wolf

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If the result of an inconclusive war one place is to refocus attention elsewhere then one may see a hot war between Britain and the USA over Aroostook, and also an equivalent to OTL's intervention in China in the Opium Wars

If we postulate heightened US-British tensions over for example British involvement in the Mexican Empire, and maybe even the support of Britain during the crushing of the settler rebellion in Tejas, then it could be Van Buren who makes the Aroostook war go from cold to hot, rather than British action in itself. If we then see a real war between Britain and the USA over the border between Maine and New Brunswick...?

The Royal Navy is going to be on a high at the end of the 1830s, it has just fought and won a major war at sea in the Mediterranean (the land aspect made the overall result inconclusive) and with the Egyptian and Russian fleets no longer a potent threat for the moment, Britain can certainly acquire dominance of the seas on the Eastern seaboard. One suspects that Van Buren is taken by surprise, not having expected Britain to have the political will to actually fight a major war, and is caught on the back foot somewhat like Argentina in 1982

One may see initial American advances on land, but British interdiction of trade, assults on major US ports and maybe a repeat of 1812 in the forcing of the Potomac and the burning of Washington. If Van Buren is forced to make a humiliating peace, and the New Brunswick border is based further South than OTL, this will lay the seeds of future conflicts

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Grey Wolf

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It seems quite possible that in this scenario Henry Clay gets the Whig nomination in 1840 and defeats whoever the Democrats put up instead of Van Buren.

Quite what kind of president Clay makes in this situation is difficult to know as much of his OTL vision and policy was led by OTL concerns that are certainly beginning to veer off course in this ATL, not least in the manner of his election. OTL he was best-placed in 1840 to gain the nomination but a cabal of enemies gave it to Harrison. Even then Harrison died and Tyler ended up as president with a personal view of politics in direct opposition to the majority of the Whigs, led in Congress by Clay. If Clay's nomination is not manipulated out in 1840, and in the aftermath of a war it seems unlikely that the cabal could act so successfully, then he is a president with a Whig Congress and a Whig programme but at the same time facing the aftermath of defeat by Britain, and the question of Mexico in the South

One could imagine a programme of domestic reform and military build-up. Although remembered as a great Congressional leader, as president Clay would likely have been as dictatorial as Jackson, his great rival, and with a Whig Congress would probably have got all his major policies through.

With the Tejas rebellion crushed in 1835, the main foreign policy problems for Clay will be California, if he wins a second term, and Oregon, especially if a Britain victorious in the Aroostook War is determined not to compromise. The USA MUST have an Eastern seaboard, Clay was a believer in Manifest Destiny in his way and had had associations as far back as Aaron Burr. His foreign policy would probably come to view California and Oregon as part of the same problem.

Thus whilst there is a superficial resemblance to OTL, the main driving foirce would not be Texas or the purchase of New Mexico, but ignoring them as principle aims and looking to California and Oregon as most important

Grey Wolf
 
"The USA MUST have an Eastern seaboard, Clay was a believer in Manifest Destiny in his way and had had associations as far back as Aaron Burr."

Well, I would certainly hope that the US has an Eastern seaboard also.

Actually, I think you have a fairly well developed ATL outline that just needs to be flushed out. I would start with dynastical and presidential tables so that I get that out of the way first.
 

Grey Wolf

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David S Poepoe said:
"The USA MUST have an Eastern seaboard, Clay was a believer in Manifest Destiny in his way and had had associations as far back as Aaron Burr."

Well, I would certainly hope that the US has an Eastern seaboard also.

Actually, I think you have a fairly well developed ATL outline that just needs to be flushed out. I would start with dynastical and presidential tables so that I get that out of the way first.

Oh yeah, I meant Western . . . oops !

I've the next installment to come, then will address your question if I can about dynastic etc tables

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

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Mid 1840s the pressure of American settlers in California leads to secession from Mexico and a unilateral declaration of independence for the Bear Flag Republic. The Mexican Empire mobilises its army to reconquer the territory, and President Clay moves to protect the newly-independent California. The outbreak of the US-Mexican War heightens tensions with Britain, Mexico's ally and tensions over Oregon. US units' incursions into the disputed territory brings Britain overtly into the war. However, neither Queen Charlotte's government nor Clay want an all-out Anglo-American war across the entire North American continent, and action is largely confined to border areas except in the West where the main offensive focus is. With the fall of San Diego and the realisation in Mexico City that Britain is more committed to Oregon than to Mexico, the Iturbide regime agrees to make peace on the terms of the cession of Upper California plus San Diego, and a defined border for New Mexico which brings several US gains in its wake. The Anglo-American war drags on some months longer, but growing public agitation back in Britain brings about a desire to negotiate and an agreement is drawn up which splits the territory equally - better than OTL for Britain, but in the circumstances seen as a victory for Clay who now has a defined and internationally recognised Western seaboard.

On the back of this, Clay runs for a third term in 1848 and wins. In retrospect this would be seen as not a good move

In Britain, public disorder is built upon a period of economic recession. Chartist riots, marches and demonstrations sweep the country, and in 1848 an anarchist assassinates Queen Charlotte. Coming to the throne in such circumstances, King George V oversees a period of conservative clamp down. Whilst this stabilises things in the short term, it also weakens Britain's ability to act as a great power

Within the USA, Clay's third term is dogged by the question of free versus slave states. With waning energy and drifting focus, Clay find this taking up an inordinate amount of time. His administration drifts and the issue begins to form a life of its own

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Grey Wolf

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The mid 1850s see a Polish uprising. Austro-Russian tensions have been high and rising for a while, mainly based on their Balkan clients and protectorates. Austria comes out in favour of the Poles, and Maximilian, second son of the heir to the throne is put forward as a possible king for the Poles. The Russo-Austrian War drags in the Balkans, but results in few border adjustments. Janina decisively defeats a Greek attempt to invade Epirus, leading to the overthrow of the Greek Wittelsbach king. With British forces passing through the Bosphorus to threaten Russian flanks, and with Sweden and Prussia making ominous moves, Russia agrees to the independence of Sweden with France negotiating the compromise. Maximilian becomes king of Poland.

However, an unforeseen result is that the spirit of nationalism spreads to Hungary. Victorious Austria sees a Hungarian revolution, with Russia coming over to the Hungarian side and Poland aiding the Habsburgs, but with France pledging to protect Polish independence. Ferdinand is 'abdicated' out of the way and Franz Karl becomes Emperor of Austria

But Austria's position is not an easy one, with its allies collapsing into problems of their own. The commitment of British forces to the Black Sea during the Polish Crisis has created a backlash amongst labour who see foreign adventures as an attempt by an unpopular and corrupt government to distract attention from problems at home. Irish nationalism has burst into open revolt, with no little help from the USA, and Britain finds itself completely unable to intervene in the East as it is consumed with problems at home.

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Grey Wolf

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Dynasties (1) - Great Britain & Hannover

BRITAIN and HANNOVER

George III
1760-1820

Regency (future George IV)
1810-1820

George IV
1820-1832

SPLIT

HANNOVER
William I
1832-1837

Ernest Augustus
1837-1851

George V of Hannover
1851-1878

BRITAIN
Charlotte
1832-1848

George V of Britain
1848 +


Note that of course, the two George V's are not the same person
George V of Hannover is the son of Ernest Augustus, and thus grandson of George III
George V of Britain is the son of Queen Charlotte, the grandson of George IV and thus the great-grandson of George III

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Grey Wolf

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FRANCE

Louis XVIII
1814-1824

Charles X
1824-1830

Louis Philippe I
1830-1848
abdicated 1848

Ferdinand I
1848 +

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Grey Wolf

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AUSTRIA

Franz
1804-1835

Ferdinand
1835-1856 (abdicated)

Franz Karl
1856-1872

Franz Josef
1872 +


Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

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The success of a Hungarian revolution in the late 1850s would severely weaken the Habsburg monarchy. I am assuming that Transylvania would go with Hungary - e.g. in OTL 1848 the Hungarians were the dominant political faction in Transylvania and voted to unite with Hungary, the other national factions being too weak to prevent it. But Croatia would remain with Vienna, as would Dalmatia and Slavonia, though Bosnia is likely to make trouble as central control falls away in these border areas. The Italian peninsular will be explosive too...

Thus the 1860s will open with some events similar to OTL but again from a very different point of origin.

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
One runs of course into the dangers of convergence which so dispirit me, but of course the tensions and underlying pressures are often the same as in OTL so they can squeeze out and into the foreground despite whatever radical changes are happening all around them

Regarding the Habsburgs one may actually expect that Austria defeats the rather make-shift forces ranged against her. Despite the loss of Hungary and Transylvania and problems in the Military Frontier, the main armies available, especially considering a friendly Poland, would be more than a match for the likely Italian opposition, unless there is French intervention

However, Orleanist France is unlikely to intervene as easily as Napoleon III did in OTL.

Grey Wolf
 
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