raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
What if the US intervened to rescue the French in Indochina during the Dien Bien Phu battle or right after it.? The reasons could be to literally win that battle, or because we just can abide allowing the Viet Minh to set up a state, or the comunists refuse to accept just half a loaf so we have to back up our intervention threats that shaped the deliberations at Geneva.
How will the Vietnam War in the 1950s be different from one in the 1960s?
Here's a list of advantages and disadvantages from a US perspective-
Advantages-
1. US will have significant French and French Union support.
2. Viet Minh cannot fully exploit North Vietnamese population, because Hanoi and Haiphong are still not in their grasp.
3. The Allies can operate over the entire territory of Indochina without restriction
4. The Viet Minh are exhausted from 9 years of continuous warfare. This is especially so if the US manages to kill alot of Viet Minh from the air to relive Dien Bien Phu
5. China is also exhausted from WWII, its own Civil War, and the Korean War. It may not intervene with its own forces.
6. Because the Viet Minh are a rebellion and not an established state, the USSR and PRC can cut their losses more easily in 1954 than they could have in OTL after the Geneva Accords. They can also cut their losses, with less loss of prestige than would have been the case if they had ditched North Korea.
7. If the Chinese actually do intervene, popular support for the Viet Minh may actually decrease, more Vietnamese may collaborate with the Allies.
8. South Vietnamese stuboorness and incompetence, while existing at the local level, will not be as important at higher levels because they don't have an independent government.
9. We won't have to do an urban bombing campaign against a sovereign nation within site of urban hotels where foreign sympathizers can stay.
10. The draft age generation of the mid-50s grew up in the Depressiona and WWII and won't be as bratty as the 1960s generation.
11. Russian strategic power will be less than in the 1960s, and they won't have as much ability to start trouble in other parts of the 3rd world. At this time, immediately post-Stalin, the Soviets were also very cautious in foreign policy.
12. US forces probably would enter the theater in force and escalate rapidly rather than gradually.
Disadvantages-
1. War will be obviously tainted with colonialism and the maintenance of the French Empire.
2. The nation will be weary from the Korean war, and the French are already somewhat tired. They may get significantly distracted by Algeria.
3. OTL's Vietnam war was very unpopular in the third world. If it's possible this joint war with France will be even more unpopular.
War critics will come in three delicious flavors:
A. Hawks who favor nuking China and helping Chiang Kai-shek inherit the ashes as an alternative to ground warfare in Vietnam. Taftite Republicans will have this perspective.
B. Hawks who are anticolonial. These would be people who see the answer to wartime difficulties in granting Vietnam "independence" and who want to completely break it away from the French Union. Cold War liberals like Senator Jack Kennedy might have this perspective.
C. Dove who want to pull-out or negotiate a settlement permitting Viet Minh participation in politics. These will include liberals who want to do stuff about civil rights and other domestic issues. Hubert Humphrey might end up in this camp. Certainly Claude Pepper, Ralph Yarborough, Eugene McCarthy would be in this camp. Some of the neoisolationist Republicans will be with them.
4. China may intervene in force and increase Allied military difficulties- Matt Ridgeway was very concerned about this.
5. European and Japanese public opinion would be anti-war and anti-Americanism and demonstrations could increase there.
6. Some of the equipment for advanced air cavalry operations might not be available. PGMs used in the late Vietnam War would not be available.
7. If Guatemala or Cuba actually do align with communists they have more potential to cause trouble before the US can react. The emergence of insurgencies in the Caribbean basin may end up being a catalyst forcing a US retreat from Indochina.
Demographics of a 1950s Indochina War-
The war would not be fought by baby-boomers. In 1954, the cohort of 18-26 year olds born between 1928 and 1936 would be be relatively small because of depression-era demographics. Baby-boomers from 1945 and after will not become draft eligible until 1963. People older than 26 will have families and have served in Korea or WWII. Between the Korean and Indochinese War, most people in this agre group will know more than one person who was killed in either.
The black community which will supply a big share of draftees may feel sick of proving their loyalty as they did in the world wars and be really ticked off.
The emerging civil rights movement may be linked with protests against unfair draft practices. Dr. King and Malcolm X may have a bigger connection with anti-war activism [Malcolm was killed near the beginning of the Vietnam war in OTL 1965].
Other generational issues- While not politically rebellious, 50s youth, the "Silent Generation" were culturally rebellious. In the event of a controversial war, one could blend into the other. Most of the ingredients that later went into the 60s would already be there*, even if in lesser quantities. Drug use expanded with the beatniks and rock n' roll culture. Dien Bien Phu was right around a poppy-growing area, and troop morale had been notoriously crappy in Korea and would be likely to be so in Indochina. All of this can add up to a major substance abuse problem in the forces.
*the pill would be the most significant exception
How will the Vietnam War in the 1950s be different from one in the 1960s?
Here's a list of advantages and disadvantages from a US perspective-
Advantages-
1. US will have significant French and French Union support.
2. Viet Minh cannot fully exploit North Vietnamese population, because Hanoi and Haiphong are still not in their grasp.
3. The Allies can operate over the entire territory of Indochina without restriction
4. The Viet Minh are exhausted from 9 years of continuous warfare. This is especially so if the US manages to kill alot of Viet Minh from the air to relive Dien Bien Phu
5. China is also exhausted from WWII, its own Civil War, and the Korean War. It may not intervene with its own forces.
6. Because the Viet Minh are a rebellion and not an established state, the USSR and PRC can cut their losses more easily in 1954 than they could have in OTL after the Geneva Accords. They can also cut their losses, with less loss of prestige than would have been the case if they had ditched North Korea.
7. If the Chinese actually do intervene, popular support for the Viet Minh may actually decrease, more Vietnamese may collaborate with the Allies.
8. South Vietnamese stuboorness and incompetence, while existing at the local level, will not be as important at higher levels because they don't have an independent government.
9. We won't have to do an urban bombing campaign against a sovereign nation within site of urban hotels where foreign sympathizers can stay.
10. The draft age generation of the mid-50s grew up in the Depressiona and WWII and won't be as bratty as the 1960s generation.
11. Russian strategic power will be less than in the 1960s, and they won't have as much ability to start trouble in other parts of the 3rd world. At this time, immediately post-Stalin, the Soviets were also very cautious in foreign policy.
12. US forces probably would enter the theater in force and escalate rapidly rather than gradually.
Disadvantages-
1. War will be obviously tainted with colonialism and the maintenance of the French Empire.
2. The nation will be weary from the Korean war, and the French are already somewhat tired. They may get significantly distracted by Algeria.
3. OTL's Vietnam war was very unpopular in the third world. If it's possible this joint war with France will be even more unpopular.
War critics will come in three delicious flavors:
A. Hawks who favor nuking China and helping Chiang Kai-shek inherit the ashes as an alternative to ground warfare in Vietnam. Taftite Republicans will have this perspective.
B. Hawks who are anticolonial. These would be people who see the answer to wartime difficulties in granting Vietnam "independence" and who want to completely break it away from the French Union. Cold War liberals like Senator Jack Kennedy might have this perspective.
C. Dove who want to pull-out or negotiate a settlement permitting Viet Minh participation in politics. These will include liberals who want to do stuff about civil rights and other domestic issues. Hubert Humphrey might end up in this camp. Certainly Claude Pepper, Ralph Yarborough, Eugene McCarthy would be in this camp. Some of the neoisolationist Republicans will be with them.
4. China may intervene in force and increase Allied military difficulties- Matt Ridgeway was very concerned about this.
5. European and Japanese public opinion would be anti-war and anti-Americanism and demonstrations could increase there.
6. Some of the equipment for advanced air cavalry operations might not be available. PGMs used in the late Vietnam War would not be available.
7. If Guatemala or Cuba actually do align with communists they have more potential to cause trouble before the US can react. The emergence of insurgencies in the Caribbean basin may end up being a catalyst forcing a US retreat from Indochina.
Demographics of a 1950s Indochina War-
The war would not be fought by baby-boomers. In 1954, the cohort of 18-26 year olds born between 1928 and 1936 would be be relatively small because of depression-era demographics. Baby-boomers from 1945 and after will not become draft eligible until 1963. People older than 26 will have families and have served in Korea or WWII. Between the Korean and Indochinese War, most people in this agre group will know more than one person who was killed in either.
The black community which will supply a big share of draftees may feel sick of proving their loyalty as they did in the world wars and be really ticked off.
The emerging civil rights movement may be linked with protests against unfair draft practices. Dr. King and Malcolm X may have a bigger connection with anti-war activism [Malcolm was killed near the beginning of the Vietnam war in OTL 1965].
Other generational issues- While not politically rebellious, 50s youth, the "Silent Generation" were culturally rebellious. In the event of a controversial war, one could blend into the other. Most of the ingredients that later went into the 60s would already be there*, even if in lesser quantities. Drug use expanded with the beatniks and rock n' roll culture. Dien Bien Phu was right around a poppy-growing area, and troop morale had been notoriously crappy in Korea and would be likely to be so in Indochina. All of this can add up to a major substance abuse problem in the forces.
*the pill would be the most significant exception