Trent Affair explodes

I thought this was posted somewhere but cannot find it on the site.
WI the Trent Affair got America into a war with Britain? Would that be enough to tip the balance and give the CSA its victory? Would Britain even win?

Trent affair

tom said:

I thought this was posted somewhere but cannot find it on the site.
WI the Trent Affair got America into a war with Britain? Would that be enough to tip the balance and give the CSA its victory? Would Britain even win?

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Harry Harrison wrote a trilogy called Stars and Stripes. It's available in SF section of bookstores. Prince Albert dies before he negotiates a settlement and Queen Victoria orders war. The British attack the Confederates which is a VERY big mistake. By Volumn 3 the UK loses the war and Scotland, Ireland,etc. The monarchy is disolved and a new constitution without House of Lords us drafted. OK, where do we go from here?

ED(Mister) said:

Harry Harrison wrote a trilogy called Stars and Stripes. It's available in SF section of bookstores. Prince Albert dies before he negotiates a settlement and Queen Victoria orders war. The British attack the Confederates which is a VERY big mistake. By Volumn 3 the UK loses the war and Scotland, Ireland,etc. The monarchy is disolved and a new constitution without House of Lords us drafted. OK, where do we go from here?

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generally we don't go anywhere as Stars and Stripes is ASB nationalistic wish-fulfillment rather than AH.

Matthew Craw said:

generally we don't go anywhere as Stars and Stripes is ASB nationalistic wish-fulfillment rather than AH.

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Agreed Stars and Stripes isnt amongst the better AH. The writer forgot to mention the pod that made the British retarded.

A serious timeline for this, just off the top of my head

The British declare war on the United States sending its fleet to lift the Union blockade of the Confederacy. The Union is soundly thrashed by the Royal Navy at Hampton Roads and Charleston SC. The British Army is welcomed by the southerners as a welcome ally. Some newspapers in the south print stories of almost feeling sorry for the United States, and blames the suffering sure to come their way on President Lincoln and the Republican Party. Kentucky, a neutral border state, secedes from the Union shortly after the British arrive.

Britain is soon joined by France and Spain, who send their armies to fight the Union in the western theater. London gives Lincoln the ultimatum to negotiate a fair peace or be destroyed. Lincoln is awaiting word from envoys in Russia and Prussia in hopes of forming an alliance of his own to counter the British and French. Lincoln orders his cabinent, Congress, and his family to leave Washington, they set up a temporary capital in Philadelphia. When Lincoln fails to respond to the British by the set deadline, the redcoats attack Washington where they fight a major battle with the Union forces defending the capital. The seige on Washington ends when the Army of Northern Virginia is ordered (against Lee's will) to reinforce the British.

Washington lay in ruins, much to the anger of Lee, who resigns from the Confederate Army days later. Lincoln was killed in the seige, leaving President Hamill to surrendor. The Union manages to stay mostly in tact, the British claim the northern Michigan peninsula and attach it to Canada, adding insult to injury they call it Victoria.

In the aftermath of the war the Republican Party splinters, and never again amounts to anything. The Democrats have a lock on American politics until the 1880s when the small Populist Party gives them a run for their money during the election years. Unfortunatley the Populist Party doesnt amount to much, its not until the first decade of the twentieth Century that the Democrats get real competition when the Progressive wing of the democrats forms an alliance with the Populist Party and forms the Progressive Party.

The US capital is moved permanently to Philadephia.

Chancellor Bismark sees a potential alliance with the United States, and jumps on the opportunity. Prussia still attacks France in 1870. Russia joins the American-German Alliance in 1873. Russia and Germany work together to solve the eastern question.

Russia and the Ottoman Empire go to war in 1878 over the Balkans, with the Tsar saying we wont stop until we take Constantinople. Both the United States and Germans give Russia the nod to take the city, what is the British Reaction?

I don't quite buy a US-German alliance under Bismark, he was solely interested in Europe and allying with the US would alienate britain without gaining him any advantage where it really matters. I'd expect a Russo_US alliance to emerge sometime after the British help to frustrate Russian ambitions in 1878.

I suspect that the war wouldn't go quite so easily as you suggest either, there's a lot of Anglophobic sentiment that can be mobilised in TTL and it's be months before teh British would be in a position to independantly engage the main union forces. You're no doubt right about the basic outcome though.

The Russo-American alliance could happen right after the war about 1967/68, Russia was wanting to form an alliance during the war but Lincoln refused, he didnt want to provoke the British. During the war in this TL I dont assume the Russians would want to be at war with the British again, so would wait until after the war to form the alliance

What happens? WWI was a close thing for most of the war. Now it ends in certain victory for Germany and it's ally, the USA. No aid or support from the US whatsoever. All of Canada's and CSA's efforts vs the USA, and probably much British effort as well. What historians in France and England will say about the quick intervention that came back to haunt is not attractive to imagine.

WWI started in 1914, let's not get ahead of ourselves. If anything I'd exepect a Russo-French American alliance to emerge, no reason whatsoever for teh Germans to join an anti British combination this early.

Xen said:

The Russo-American alliance could happen right after the war about 1967/68, Russia was wanting to form an alliance during the war but Lincoln refused, he didnt want to provoke the British. During the war in this TL I dont assume the Russians would want to be at war with the British again, so would wait until after the war to form the alliance

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sounds reasnoble.

A Little Rain

Not to Rain on this Parade- But I'm not so sure of a CS-GB win as all that. [And as a officer in the CS Navy, I'm almost obligated to be pro-Dixie]

The US has the nearer forces, plus with a war against GB, all the Irish who were against helping the blacks compete with free Labor would be glad to fight GB instead.

The US had built Coastal Defenses following the Invadsions of 1812~14. It may not be all that easy for England to invade the US East Coast, and the West Coast can be retaken later if Needed.

around the Great Lakes the US had a vastly greater Ship Building Capacity, allowing the US to attack Torento and Monteral, from the North thru Lake Huron, as well as from the South or East.

The US is already in War Production Mode while Britain has to raise, Train and Equip a Army before it can send it to the Americas, as most of It's exsiting Forces are commited elsewhere.

So if the US Pulls back from the attack on the CS and uses it's rail system to attack Canada before GB can reinforce. The US knocks Canada out of the picture for GB. and them turns around, sending the whole thing back against the South. Only this time allowing {War is Hell, Burn them out} Sherman, & {get a Bigger Hammer} Grant, Full Rein with all the Supplies and men they need.

I'd agree with DuQuense that a Confederate-British victory in the event of war over the TRENT incident, won't be as clearcut as portrayed in this POD, given US wartime production and determination to keep fighting at this early stage of the war (late 1861). Also, perhaps pro-war sentiment and recruitment in the North would be greater if there's actual news of a foreign invader planning to bring the war to their homes and hearths ?

I would predict CSA independence after Lincoln loses the 1864 election, with the Democratic Party going into decline, probably dying out when the Populist Party emerges in the 1890s. The US slowly recovers, and then builds up its strength, with a standing army of 200,000 and a rapidly expanding fleet, mostly monitor types unable to travel far but enjoying superior armor and firepower.

Great Britain has historically had a great reluctance to field a massive army in time of peace, having only six divisions available in early 1913, only doubling this then in time for WWI.

Given some other tension, perhaps over CSA plans in Mexico(and does this clash with or aid France), another war erupts about the 1890s. The US army smashes all into Western Canada and Southwest Mexico/CSA, while the fight at sea proves alarmingly even. Given other situations(South Africa, China, etc), the lack of allies and the growing realization of just how few nations really like London, Great Britain accepts a disadvantageous peace, hoping to appease the US this way. All of Canada west of Ontario goes to the US, along with Baja California(rendering any CSA Pacific ports useless) and probably parts of the CSA. If Kentucky was lost in 1864, no doubt London has many words about territorial concessions under duress coming back to haunt. Otherwise Oklahoma and Arkansas.

By this time US naval buildup has probably frightened London because they can't compete successfully against the US AND Germany.

And if the US never got Hawaii and such, Japan has no real interests in the US and vice versa.

Of course, if the 1895 War lasts a little while, to the crisis in China and the Boer War, then the US might actually be able to score a clear victory!