New Sealion: Japanese invasion Down Under?

If the Nips couldn't be stopped in Papua New Guinea (and assuming that the USA remains isolationist) do you think that they would continue moving south, and if so, how far do you think that they could go? Cape York? Darwin? Sydney? Christchurch? :eek:
 
I'd say a Japanese invasion of Australia is quite possible, since even with the US in the war there was a lot of worry in 1942 and Japan's attempt to gain control of New Guinea was certainly considered the preliminary to an invasion of the Australian mainland. If not for the Allied victories at Coral Sea and Port Moresby, both of which were very close battles, an invasion was a very real possibility. And that is with the US in the war.

If Japan stays out of it, Australia is almost certainly going to be invaded and occupied. From what I recall most of the Australian Army was lost when Japan took Singapore, and Churchill would not have been able and willing to devote the neccesary resources from the rest of the Empire to protect Australia with Nazi Germany running through Europe and the Mediterranean. With Japan having control of the air and sea around Australia, and the veteran Japanese Army facing off against a force of poorly equipped Australian conscripts, the outcome is fairly obvious.
 
There's a few problems with the Japan invades Australia scenario. The most important of these is the Japanese Army's hopeless supply situation. Their army, especially in Malaysia, Indonesia, & PNG, relied upon speed & a quick resolution to a battle. However, if they got into a long drawn out affair, like in the Battle of Kokoda, the Japanese lack of a decent supply line catches up with them & they are defeated. So, in order to take PNG, where the Japanese can thus invade Australia, they have to drastically improve their supply situation.

Yet even if the Japanese do completely reform their thinking & actions in regards to supply lines, they still have to find the supplies for an invasion of Australia. I don't know why people think that such an action will be easy considing Australia is the size of Europe. Even Nazi Germany, at its height, couldn't manage to control all of Europe, yet people think that Japan can conquer all of Australia will little effort. Not only are the distances invovled great, but the northern half of the country requires great effort to traverse. Any invader has to deal with everything, from thick jungle (equal to anything in PNG) to deserts stretching for thousands of kilometres.

Then there's this business over Australia losing its army in Singapore. That's completely wrong. In WWII Australia had two different armies. There was the volunteer force known as the AIF & then there was the conscript force known as the CMF. At Singapore, only two briagdes plus divisional troops of the 8th Division (AIF) were lost to the Japanese. The third brigade of the 8th Division was in Darwin & survived intacted. The veteran 6th, 7th, & 9th Divisions were in North Africa successfully fighting Rommel. Back in Australia, meanwhile, there were five divisions of the CMF along with various other support units. Just as importantly, after the fall of Singapore, the Australian Curtin goverment ordered home the three veteran Australian division from North Africa to engage the Japanese. This they did so successfully in PNG & ensured Australia was never to be invaded.

Now certainly the Battle of the Coral Sea helped tremendously in defeating the Japanese plans for PNG & any possible invasion of Australia. But then again the Japanese Navy often had their act together unlike the army. But just as Germany's situation with Sealion, even if the Japanese did take PNG, invading Australia is another thing altogether. Not only would the entire Australian army of 9 or so divisions be up against them, in other words the Japanese would be greatly outnumbered by this stage of the game, but the Japanese just wouldn't have the supplies to carry out a successful invasion of a country the size of Europe.

Furthermore, by mid 1942, the RAAF is getting substantial increases in very good equipment in the form of Spitfires, Beauforts & above all Beaufighters. As the Beaufighters clearly demonstrated in the Battle of the Bismarck Sea, any Japanese invasion fleet caught at sea would be decimated long before it hit the beaches. And the Japanese had nothing which could stop the Beaufighter whilst Australia had plenty of them to throw at the Japanese.

Of course, if the Japanese were determined to take a large chunck of Australia (say most of Queensland which would be equal to the combined land mass of France & Germany), they could provided they employed the resources. This would mean, however, an army in the vicinity of 250 000 troops, with much armour, several squadrons of Zeros, various bombers & the like, not to mention three or for aircraft carriers along with their supports & escorts. Importantly for the Allies, however, there wouldn't be much left elsewhere to defend the Pacific against the Americans counterattacking. As such, I'd expect the Americans to go on the offensive & do much damage to the Japanese throughout the Pacific. Similarly, the Japanese advances in Burma may fail, leaving the British & Indians in much better shape to defeat the Japanese in that part of the world.

Meanwhile, even with such an impressive invasion army on the move in Australia, the Japanese will eventually find themselves stuck north of Brisbane. Although it was unofficial, the obvious Australian plan in dealing with a successful Japanese invasion in northern Queensland (where the expected invasion was to come), was to withraw to the "Brisbane Line". This would force the Japanese to move over 1 000km to where the Australian army (of close to 500 000 troops) was waiting for them. So the Japanese would still be outnumbered & facing a defence line akin to the trenches of the Western Front in WWI.

Significantly, for the Japanese, their tactic of outflanking a defensive position through the jungle could no longer be utilised. Instead they'd have to attack prepared defences. As a result, the Japnese will be slaughtered. And their invasion of Australia stops around about there. Then, it just a matter of time, before the Australian forces slowly counterattack, & eventually destroy the Japanese army in Queensland, which will probably take about one year. So by 1944, Australia is free of all Japanese forces & Australian, in turn, would invade PNG driving the Japanese before them. Needless to say, however, with the Japanese wasting many resources in a futile invasion of Australia, the war in the Pacific Theatre could be well & truely over by the end of 1944.
 
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I would reguard a full scale invasion (i.e. with the intention of occupying the major cities etcetra) as extreamly unlikely. Quite simply the Japs don't have the forces to both hold back the Yanks in the pacific and continue to pressure the british in western Burma and eastern India while launching this opperation (never mind the thousands of Australians willing to fight to the death).
What I actually think is likely is the Japanese occupation of a number of offshore Islands and possibly the establishment of a few coastal bases.

If Japan stays out of it, Australia is almost certainly going to be invaded and occupied. From what I recall most of the Australian Army was lost when Japan took Singapore
No, we lost a division in Malaya but Australia had another 3 active divisions in the middle east plus quite a large militia at home.
the veteran Japanese Army facing off against a force of poorly equipped Australian conscripts, the outcome is fairly obvious.
Three veteran divsions from the middle east? hardly poorly equiped conscripts.
As for the Australian Militia, ok not with much experiance or that well equiped but unless Japan is willing to withdraw a large number of troops from China, Malaya, Burma or the Pacific the Japanese army will be outnumbered.

Edit to add:
and assuming that the USA remains isolationist
No way this can happen:
1. The USA cannot remain isolationist after being attacked.
2. If the USA is not attacked I would expect the Japs to just occupy the Dutch East Indies rather than go on a rampage across the Pacific.
 
Cockroach said:
No, we lost a division in Malaya but Australia had another 3 active divisions in the middle east plus quite a large militia at home.


In truth it wasn't even the full division at Singapore. 23rd Brigade was still in Darwin when Singapore fell.
 
Sorry for going slightly off-topic, but it seemed to me that once the Japanese secured the Solomons and Port Moresby they would've have struck in the direction of New Caledonia and Fiji rather than at Australia itself. That would have cut Australia off from any assistance from the US and brought the rest of the South Pacific and even New Zealand under Japanese threat.

There's a thought: how would New Zealand have stood up to Japanese invasion from Japanese-held New Caledonia and Fiji?
 
I don't know why people think that such an action will be easy considing Australia is the size of Europe.

While this is surely true, the actualy area that Japan will have to take to effectively "occupy" is significantly lower. I agree that Japan doesn't have the numbers either in troops, logistics or ships to realistically contemplate an invasion of Australia in any case, but they would only need to go at the Cities located primarilly on the coast. Japan sending forces into the interior would be.. largely pointless on any level.
 
GBW said:
Sorry for going slightly off-topic, but it seemed to me that once the Japanese secured the Solomons and Port Moresby they would've have struck in the direction of New Caledonia and Fiji rather than at Australia itself. That would have cut Australia off from any assistance from the US and brought the rest of the South Pacific and even New Zealand under Japanese threat.


Well those plans were stopped at Guadalcanal. By that stage the Japanese are just too stretched to go any further.



GBW said:
There's a thought: how would New Zealand have stood up to Japanese invasion from Japanese-held New Caledonia and Fiji?


NZ is too far for the Japanese to launch an invasion. It'd be easier to invade Australia by this stage of the game (even if doing so is also stretching the Japanese too far).
 
Earling said:
While this is surely true, the actualy area that Japan will have to take to effectively "occupy" is significantly lower. I agree that Japan doesn't have the numbers either in troops, logistics or ships to realistically contemplate an invasion of Australia in any case, but they would only need to go at the Cities located primarilly on the coast. Japan sending forces into the interior would be.. largely pointless on any level.


Well to move from Port Morseby to Townsville, as that'd have to be attacked first as it's a major military base, is well over 1 000km. That's a tough ask in anyone's language. Similarly from Port Morseby to Brisbane, it's over 2 000km. Furthermore, you'll have the RAN, RAAF, & the USAAF (they had B-17s based in Australia along with other aircraft such as Kittyhawks & Lightnings) operating out along the coastline, meaning the Japanese will be under constant attack (especially if they by-pass Townsville & head straight for Brisbane).

So in order to ensure that their sea lines are safe, the Japanese will have to land at Townsville then move south via land routes (& the roads weren't very good - dirt tracks for the most part over hundreds of kms). Now they can eventually achieve this, but they still arrive at the Brisbane Line which will be heavily defended by a well armed Australian army of about 500 000 troops.

Furthermore, if the Japanese decide at having a go at somewhere like Sydney, & thus bypassing the Brisbane Line, well it means travelling something like 3 000kms distance from Port Moresby. And again, all along the coastline, from Townsville southwards, the RAN, RAAF, & USAAF will be constantly attacking the Japanese Fleet. Importantly, by the time the Japanese invasion Fleet reaches Sydney Harbour, there won't be much left of it.

And that's if the Japanese Fleet even makes it that far south without having to fight off the USN. The USN is bound to have a go at the Japanese Fleet, especially if the USN loses at Coral Sea, whilst the Japanese are busy dealing with the constant attacks from the Australian mainland.

Fundamentally, whatever strategy the Japanese use to invade Australia, whether it be securing a north Queensland beachead or the city hoping method, the Japanese will be heavily defeated either on land &/or at sea.
 

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chrispi said:
If the Nips couldn't be stopped in Papua New Guinea (and assuming that the USA remains isolationist) do you think that they would continue moving south, and if so, how far do you think that they could go? Cape York? Darwin? Sydney? Christchurch? :eek:

How could the US remain isolationist. An invasion in OTL wouldn't have happened until August or later in OTL. This is after the draw at Coral Sea and US victory at Midway. There would also be two US National Guard infantry divisions under MacArthur stationed in Australia by now. The only way that the US could be isolationist would be if the US didn't attack Pearl Harbor and the Philippines.
 
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Well, I stand corrected about Australian losses at Singapore, I was going off of a few vaguely remembered things I'd read a while back, and of course that's not the most reliable of sources.

So, if Australia does in fact have a decent army they are in a much better situation certainly, but it seems to me that some of you are not considering the value of Japanese naval superiority. I would imagine Japan would use it's navy to help it bypass the much of Australia's difficult terrain and any defensive lines, and also from what I recall most of Australia's population is on the coast, with the interior being sparsely inhabited. Japan does not need to conquer the empty deserts, just the cities, as Earling pointed out.

Of course, with the US in the war it's just another move that's going to make Japan even more vulnerable and stretch their resources and manpower even thinner. There's really just no way I can see for Japan to win a war against the US, the manpower and industrial production of the US is much too large. A Japanese invasion of Australia is possible, but I doubt Japan could devote the needed resources to occupy all of Australia before the losses on other fronts due to lack of resources become intolerable and the invasion force is called back.

As the thread author specified a case in which the US remains out of the war however, I'm going to try and work on that assumption. I'd imagine the US could have stayed out of the war if it had gone for a policy of true neutrality instead of it's actual policy of neutral but increasingly hostile to the Axis and sending a lot of aid to the Allies. From what I recall the US oil embargo on Japan was what made the Japanese feel that war was inevitable, remove that and perhaps the remains just an observer in the war. Without outside support it I don't think Australia can hold out against Japan indefinately, and from what I recall Churchill felt that it was better to let Japan land in the East than to risk losing the war in Europe.

Still, might be interesting to speculate on how things go on the Pacific Front without the US. Assuming Britain manages to close out the war in Europe.(and that the Soviets and Britain can win the war without US assistance) I'd imagine the full might of the British Empire could win the war against Japan, but I'd imagine a Britain already weary from a long and painful European war wouldn't be too eager to fight a long and painful war in the Pacific and Asia right afterwords. Perhaps the Soviets end up taking a much larger role, and gain most of Japan's territory, with the British just managing to reclaim their losses? Or do the war weary European states just try to negotiate a peace.
 
Actually I've read a plan by the Japanese High Command this is their belief of how things would unfold:

1. Japanese troops land at Darwin under darkness while a smaller diversion force lands in Queensland, making a lot of noise.
2. The American and Australian army moves east into Queensland.
3. A Japanese force takes Perth (?!)
4. The Australian force is trapped on the Gulf of Carpentaria and is destroyed.
5. the Japs move towards Brisbane.
6. the Japs in Perth move east too Adelaide.

This is their plans! May I point out the major flaws:
-the Japs had no idea what they were up against.
-they were stretched to the limit and wanted to attack on 3 fronts (pure insanity...)
- Any attack across the barren wasteland of the Nullabor Plain to get to Adelaide is doomed to death like Napoleon's invasion of Russia.
 
Any particular reason why we throw the racial term "Japs" around on this board so easily? At any rate a Japanese invasion of Australia would quickly turn into a Japanese Dunkirk (with an even more unlikely escape).
 
Chengar Qordath said:
So, if Australia does in fact have a decent army they are in a much better situation certainly, but it seems to me that some of you are not considering the value of Japanese naval superiority. I would imagine Japan would use it's navy to help it bypass the much of Australia's difficult terrain and any defensive lines, and also from what I recall most of Australia's population is on the coast, with the interior being sparsely inhabited. Japan does not need to conquer the empty deserts, just the cities, as Earling pointed out.


A couple of points - the Battle of the Coral Sea & Midway more or less disprove the so-called value of Japanese naval superiority. Yes their navy could deal with the RAN, but then there's the RAAF. It's based on an unsinkable air craft carrier & very capable. It can certainly deal with the Japanese by mid 1942 should they approach the Australian coastline.

Then there's the problems involved with by-passing Australian locations. As i said, Townsville is a major military base. If it is ignored, the RAAF's Beauforts, Beaufighters, Hudsons, along with the USAAF's B-17s etc, all with fighter escorts, will sink whatever Japanese fleet is sailing along the Australian coastline.


Chengar Qordath said:
Of course, with the US in the war it's just another move that's going to make Japan even more vulnerable and stretch their resources and manpower even thinner. There's really just no way I can see for Japan to win a war against the US, the manpower and industrial production of the US is much too large. A Japanese invasion of Australia is possible, but I doubt Japan could devote the needed resources to occupy all of Australia before the losses on other fronts due to lack of resources become intolerable and the invasion force is called back.


Well suggesting that the USA isn't involved is a huge hole in this TL. Of course the USA will be involved as the Philippines would have been hit long before Australia is threatened. And you've & I have pointed out, the Japanese may be able to secure a beachead, but any successful invasion is defeated due to lack of Japanese resources as much as anything else.


Chengar Qordath said:
As the thread author specified a case in which the US remains out of the war however, I'm going to try and work on that assumption. I'd imagine the US could have stayed out of the war if it had gone for a policy of true neutrality instead of it's actual policy of neutral but increasingly hostile to the Axis and sending a lot of aid to the Allies. From what I recall the US oil embargo on Japan was what made the Japanese feel that war was inevitable, remove that and perhaps the remains just an observer in the war. Without outside support it I don't think Australia can hold out against Japan indefinately, and from what I recall Churchill felt that it was better to let Japan land in the East than to risk losing the war in Europe.


Well like others & myself have pointed out, the USA keeping out of such a major Pacific War is ASB territory. There would be far too much going on for them to stay out of it. Now if the Japanese were using their brains, in any major expansion of territory in the Asia-Pacific region, they would go no further than claiming territories belonging to the European countries that had been defeated by Germany. In other words French Indo-China & the Dutch East Indies. Both British & American territory would be left alone. Furthermore, Australia wouldn't be threatened. It makes it hard, therefore, for the British & Americans to voluntarily commit to a major Pacific War whilst Europe is engaged in war. Of course it's a completely different matter when they're attacked as per OTL.

As for Australia holding out alone - you forget the fact that Australia has, not only a sizeable army of 500 000 equiped troops, but its own industry capable of building warships, tanks, guns & artillery. But far more importantly, it can build aircraft by the hundreds which are capable of sinking every Japanese ship that comes within range. And this is despite the fact that the rest of the British Empire will also now be involved in the war with Japan. Meanwhile, japan is at the end of its supply lines & these are extremely vulnerable & not very good in the first place.


Chengar Qordath said:
Still, might be interesting to speculate on how things go on the Pacific Front without the US. Assuming Britain manages to close out the war in Europe.(and that the Soviets and Britain can win the war without US assistance) I'd imagine the full might of the British Empire could win the war against Japan, but I'd imagine a Britain already weary from a long and painful European war wouldn't be too eager to fight a long and painful war in the Pacific and Asia right afterwords. Perhaps the Soviets end up taking a much larger role, and gain most of Japan's territory, with the British just managing to reclaim their losses? Or do the war weary European states just try to negotiate a peace.


Without the USA, the Japanese are slowly defeated as they eventually run out of supplies. They've still got a large war with China, that's draining a lot of their war effort, plus they're stretched all the way to Australia & I'd say Burma & India. The Japanese will probably last much longer, say even to 1950, but it'll end up as a war of attrition & that's one they can't win.

But inevitably the USA will enter at some date. To be honest, I can't see the the USA waiting all that long. FDR know full well that a strong Japan in the Pacific means trouble for American security. It'd be a safe bet, if Australia is threatened with invasion, that such an act will be the last straw for FDR. Ironically, US could pull a Pearl Harbor on the Japnese & ensure a severe blow to the Japanese war effort long before late 1942.
 
PJ Norris said:
Actually I've read a plan by the Japanese High Command this is their belief of how things would unfold:

1. Japanese troops land at Darwin under darkness while a smaller diversion force lands in Queensland, making a lot of noise.
2. The American and Australian army moves east into Queensland.
3. A Japanese force takes Perth (?!)
4. The Australian force is trapped on the Gulf of Carpentaria and is destroyed.
5. the Japs move towards Brisbane.
6. the Japs in Perth move east too Adelaide.

This is their plans! May I point out the major flaws:
-the Japs had no idea what they were up against.
-they were stretched to the limit and wanted to attack on 3 fronts (pure insanity...)
- Any attack across the barren wasteland of the Nullabor Plain to get to Adelaide is doomed to death like Napoleon's invasion of Russia.


Well if this is their plans they must have had the same idiotic German personnel who worked on Sealion as it's doomed to failure.

I concur with the faults you've raised & I'll add a couple:

Darwin was defended by a full division. It was the surviving elements of the 8th Division reinforced with CMF replacements. They'd just love to have a go at the Japanese in revenge for Singapore.

The Japanese landing in northern Queensland will have to fight their way through the aircraft based at Townsville. If it is a small force, then the RAAF & USAAF will obviously see this from the air & attack with much success. The result will resemble that of the Bismarck Sea - total destruction of the enemy long before it lands.

How on Earth do the Japanese make a landing at Perth considering we're talking a distance of well over 3 000km from Timor? Any such force would be spotted by either Sutherland &/or Catalina Fly Boats & be intercepted by sea. The RAAF & USAAF also had bombers & fighters stationed in Western Australia which would thus attack the Japanese force in the Indian Ocean.
 
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PJ Norris said:
Actually I've read a plan by the Japanese High Command this is their belief of how things would unfold:

1. Japanese troops land at Darwin under darkness while a smaller diversion force lands in Queensland, making a lot of noise.
2. The American and Australian army moves east into Queensland.
3. A Japanese force takes Perth (?!)
4. The Australian force is trapped on the Gulf of Carpentaria and is destroyed.
5. the Japs move towards Brisbane.
6. the Japs in Perth move east too Adelaide.

well my great-grandad served on Rottnest island, which is just out to sea from Perth. i fell of a bike there and broke my arm, but thats a different story. he manned artilery 'just in case' of a Japanese attack.

the Japs did do some landings in Northern Australia, plus the japanese mini-subs in Sydney.
we dont know that much about what landings the japs did, simply because the Aus Gov didnt want to start a panic. they kinda came and whent as tey pleased in the North, but there was no way they could pull of an invasion durring WW2.

so the question arises, when could the Japanese invade Australia in an Axis victorious tl? 45, 46, ????
 
Scarecrow said:
well my great-grandad served on Rottnest island, which is just out to sea from Perth. i fell of a bike there and broke my arm, but thats a different story. he manned artilery 'just in case' of a Japanese attack.


I've been to Rottnest Island. The Quokkas are real cute & cheeky! More importantly, I saw the old defensive works. I never broke anything though, my arm included ;)


Scarecrow said:
the Japs did do some landings in Northern Australia, plus the japanese mini-subs in Sydney. we dont know that much about what landings the japs did, simply because the Aus Gov didnt want to start a panic. they kinda came and whent as tey pleased in the North, but there was no way they could pull of an invasion durring WW2.


Remember - the Japanese attack on Sydney Harbour didn't go too well for the Japanese. And their so-called landings were nothing more than that. More than likely the Japanese were lost & had no idea where they were.


Scarecrow said:
so the question arises, when could the Japanese invade Australia in an Axis victorious tl? 45, 46, ????


Which century is this? :D
 
DMA, PJ, Scarecrow and all you other fellas, I fully agree with you on how a Japanese invasion of Australia was doomed to failure given all the reasons you've pointed out. Even though in the immediate aftermath of Darwin being bombed in Feb 1942, there was mass panic among civilians and servicemen over fear of Japanese invasion. Another WI then- WI a Japanese land invasion force was also available with Adm Nagumo's carrier taskforce to launch an amphibious landing in the Top End immediately after Darwin was hit ? What would be the likelihood of Japanese success and overall effects on Australia's strategic position ?

However, DMA, just a few little details re Australia's military available to defend the far north- drawn from the 23rd Bde in Darwin, there were also AIF bns stationed on Ambon, Timor and Rabaul from the 8th Div, such as the 2/21st, 2/22nd (both from Victoria) and 2/40th (Tasmania) who, as GULL, LARK and SPARROW Forces, were overrun by overwhelmingly superior Japanese forces in early 1942, and the survivors subjected to brutal mistreatment in POW camps for the rest of the war.

http://www.brainyencyclopedia.com/encyclopedia/a/au/australian_8th_division.html#Timor

There were in addition of course the 2/2 and 2/4 Independent Commando Coys on Timor which conducted a highly successful guerilla war against much larger enemy formations.

And don't forget, Broome was also a major US submarine base, so any Jap fleet attempting to invade WA will be sent straight to the bottom.
 
Melvin Loh said:
Even though in the immediate aftermath of Darwin being bombed in Feb 1942, there was mass panic among civilians and servicemen over fear of Japanese invasion.


Yes, but that was Feb 1942. Realistically the earlist possible date of a Japanese invasion is July 1942. So there would be 6 months for to train them up.

Furthermore, in Darwin, it was the new green Army units which panicked. BTW the RAN & RAAF personnel didn't panic.


Melvin Loh said:
Another WI then- WI a Japanese land invasion force was also available with Adm Nagumo's carrier taskforce to launch an amphibious landing in the Top End immediately after Darwin was hit ? What would be the likelihood of Japanese success and overall effects on Australia's strategic position ?


That would be dangerous from a Japanese postion. Afterall there's still plenty of Allied postions further to the north in Indonesia & PNG.


Melvin Loh said:
However, DMA, just a few little details re Australia's military available to defend the far north- drawn from the 23rd Bde in Darwin, there were also AIF bns stationed on Ambon, Timor and Rabaul from the 8th Div, such as the 2/21st, 2/22nd (both from Victoria) and 2/40th (Tasmania) who, as GULL, LARK and SPARROW Forces, were overrun by overwhelmingly superior Japanese forces in early 1942, and the survivors subjected to brutal mistreatment in POW camps for the rest of the war.


Yes I was aware of the eventual fate of 23rd Brigade. But the statement was made in reference to the fate of 8th Division in relation to Singapore. As you'd know 23rd Bridage was reformed (as was the rest of 8th Div) with CMF troops. It made for an interesting situation, actually, where technically 8th Div was AIF, but was manned by CMF personnel.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong (There are several Australians on this board) but isn't the Great Barrier Reef only pierced by a few gaps big enough for seagoing vessals? Can't they easily be mined or patrolled by air?
 
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