After A Failed Sealion

I was wondering how the course of the war would have gone after a failed sealion. I have read a recent book called operation sealion (funnily enougth), which has the british throwing back the invasion after 1 week, The Royal Navy does not intervene with heavy units but raids the supply lines nightly, this together with logistical bad planning causes the panzers to run out of fuel. The germany army on british soil is then forced to surrender. There losses in this scenario are 4 Panzer divisions, 2 motorised divisons, 2 mountain divisons, 7 infantry divisons and 1 Parachute divisons as well as the brandenburg commandos, importantly in my view 12-15 u boats are lost as well.
How would losses on this scale affect the war? (1) what happens to Op Barbarossa? (2) Does the attack on greece and yugoslavia go ahead (3) what happens with the battle of the atlantic? (4) what happens in north africa (5) how does this affect american public opinion? (6) what happens to the german war economy I think north africa gets heavily re enforced by the brits and the italians get beaten even worse than in our OTL, and the german economy gets disrupted apart from that not sure

How do the Germans get 4 panzer divisions across on river barges?

First of all, Churchill was prepared to use Chemical weapons on the landing zones. This would mean that the ban on Chemical weapons would get broken on both sides. In the long haul, this will play to the UK's advantage, which will probably unleash its anthrax against German nerve agents.

Second, the German plan was to use a bunch of River Barges for the attack. Those barges aren't spare ships--they are used to move important resources, like coal, internally. Germany probably loses nine out of ten of these ships, and the tenth one is probably damaged. Count on Germany facing logistical stresses as a result.

Third, the UK, facing an invasion, might get FDR to outright DoW Germany on the spot. Charles Lindbergh had famously argued that "We have nothing to fear from a German Conquest of England" and was torn to shreds. Pushed to act, FDR might well hammer through Congress a DoW because the loss of the UK would critically imperil the United State's security situation--that the invasion would fail could not be known at the time. US War Entry can not be ruled out as a result.

Fourth, once German Shipping is devastated, the UK can deploy forces abroad in larger numbers. The threat of invasion simply isn't there.

Lastly, the German Luftwaffe will get hammered over this attack. It can be rebuilt--but probably not by June 1941. Germany will have to reconsider Barbarossa--and if they don't (and they probably still attack anyhow), they do so on worse logistics, less air support, and--Probably--both sides respond with chemical weapons. The Soviets are probably in worse shape in this regard than the Wehrmacht, but I'd count on the Red Army to have a strong advantage over OTL--with the German attack at the speed of an infantry pace, the Soviets are never seriously threatened in this war.

bernard patton said:

How do the Germans get 4 panzer divisions across on river barges?

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They were planning to use steamers they had about 170 assignrd to the invasion fleet, the panzers were to come across in the second wave, the book was based on their plans so i assume its reliable, one of the points that was brought across is that though the germans had enough shipping for troops and equipment (just) they forgot two important things fuel and ammo oooops, they were counting on capturing british stocks and filling up from petrol stations.

Also though I dont doubt that chemical weapons would have been used if the situation got critical, in this scenario the british sort let the germans put more troops ashore so more could be destroyed got to admit dont know if that sounds realistic.

I hat last year posted a scenario on Failed Sealion
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=97916


Hiter had gone Mad on the bad news

He had furious screaming thet order
Großadmiral Erich Raeder, Reichsmarschall Göring are to be executed
i think Göring and Raeder scream some thing like that
"WIR HABEN ES NICHT GEWUSST" (WE HAVE NOT KNOW IT) follow by sound of guns

how Hilter can get Berserk show the Movie "Der Untergang" (the Downfall)
here "best of" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkUzfAfwP1A

rip89 said:

I was wondering how the course of the war would have gone after a failed sealion. I have read a recent book called operation sealion (funnily enougth), which has the british throwing back the invasion after 1 week, The Royal Navy does not intervene with heavy units but raids the supply lines nightly, this together with logistical bad planning causes the panzers to run out of fuel. The germany army on british soil is then forced to surrender. There losses in this scenario are 4 Panzer divisions, 2 motorised divisons, 2 mountain divisons, 7 infantry divisons and 1 Parachute divisons as well as the brandenburg commandos, importantly in my view 12-15 u boats are lost as well.

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That book is rubbish!

There is no way the Germans can get 15(!) divisions across the Channel!!

And if they manage to do it anyway, it means they have air and naval superiority and in this case the UK will loose.
Given the fact that the RAF can withdraw to bases out of range of German fighters, German can not achieve air superiority. And this means there is a 99% probability the whole operation will not be launched and if it´s launched losses will be limited to one or two Airborne divisions and maybe one Infantry division.
Militarily the only change will occur in Greece as Germany lacks he troops to invade Crete.

Markus said:

That book is rubbish!

There is no way the Germans can get 15(!) divisions across the Channel!!

And if they manage to do it anyway, it means they have air and naval superiority and in this case the UK will loose.
Given the fact that the RAF can withdraw to bases out of range of German fighters, German can not achieve air superiority. And this means there is a 99% probability the whole operation will not be launched and if it´s launched losses will be limited to one or two Airborne divisions and maybe one Infantry division.
Militarily the only change will occur in Greece as Germany lacks he troops to invade Crete.

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Ok the book had the premise that, the navy did not fully commit itself straight away (1) so it could clear mine fields, (2) to allow the u boat threat to be cleared, only then would the navy be commited and then at night to minimise the threat from air attack, this seems reasonable why lose large numbers of ships straight away, when with a bit of preparation ie in a week you can do the the same job with less losses? and yes the RAF did withdraw north, the germans took the slower reaction time to raids (and it would have been slower), as a sign they had won air dominance. This led them to launch the invasion. The germans did have the capacity to carry that number of divisons across this took a week (not 1 day), and please remeber im not arguing that a sucessful sealion was feasible, the logistics of it alone were ridiculous. (the book is written by john-matrix-evans dont know if anyone elese has read it)

Divisions aside... and if they actually could and would do it...

1) Assuming the loss rates were very bad, maybe no more parachute drops (as per after Crete) after the attempt. Would some subsequently noteworthy COs be lost?

2) The KM would be weakened, but U-boats could be easily replaced (although not their experienced crews).

3) I wonder how the Nazis would try to paper over the disaster? Very difficult to hide the fact that their troops were stuck/beaten on the other side of the Channel.

4) Would the British feel secure in sending more troops overseas earlier, now the invasion attempt had been made? Possibly, because OTL loads of UK and Canadian troops remained in the UK until D-Day to guard against invasion.

5) Would this prove a positive or negative experience if the UK/Commonwealth and (likely at some point) US invaded Italy and France as per OTL?

6) I'd imagine RAF bomber production would be ramped up to get back at the Germans for the damage/casualties caused. Would this see even more resources diverted to Bomber Command, whose overall impact is moot?

7) Would the Soviets have as much to fear in the months following the debacle? Might this defeat actually lead them to prepare more fully for conflict with Hitler?

8) Similarly, would it deter the Japanese from launching such attacks in SEAsia?

To be fair, we don't know what the PoD for this attack would be: some kind of added investment in German Naval Transports, combined with the surrender of the BEF in France--the UK might be in real trouble militarily.

There are several problems with Sealion. The first is that the invasion force has a very narrow window to act. The Royal Navy can not get bombed away from the invasion beaches, and the best German plan--to mine the channel to hell and create an invasion corridor--will not really save the invasion force from getting cut off--perhaps at heavy price to the RN, but its a price that would be paid.

Great Britian had several interior lines of defense, it had a citizen force (the Home Guard) that would get mobilized to hold the lines, the RAF, even if beaten off through air superiority, would throw its last resources into the fighting; Chemical weapons get deployed against German Beachheads.

Germany is unlikely to have any good answers to these methods. Throw in that Britian has major Urban areas, the United States might very discard all neutrality if the UK is seriously threatened, and there will be no potential for a quick advance with all of the interior fortress lines (and almost no oil, either from resupply or from domestic sources for aforementioned panzer divisions) and you see how this is going to go down.

Perhaps the German Wehrmacht can make the same claims to London as they did OTL to Moscow--that they got close, that they could call their offensive a "Siege" of London, and that their efforts might hold some mystique in the eyes of historians and wargamers who debate what an attack on the British Capitol would have looked like. But no more--and once the German shipping is all but severed, once the RAF pwns all attempts at resupply and eats paradrops alive after the first initial wave, this will turn into a mass surrender of German Forces.

Without reinforcement, resupply or even a line of retreat, Germany loses just about everything they commit to this attack. Michele had a good TL on this topic, let me dig up his work:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=103866&highlight=show+1940

Now Michele assumes nothing changes on the French Battlefield, the United States doesn't jump into the war over the prospect of losing the UK, and the UK doesn't respond to this attack by gassing the Wehrmacht on the beaches--and this screws them, as they have no NBC gear.

I agree totaly that sealion wont work, for all the reasons that everybody has said ever over the years of existence of this website, i was just wondering what the consequenses of a failed sealion would be and what would happen over the next couple of years.

The POD was simple, instead of bombing london in retaliation for the british raids on berlin, airfield attacks continue after 6th sept, and fighter command moves north. Everything else is per OTL same dunkirk etc.

Has anbody done a timeline on this?

rip89 said:

Ok the book had the premise that, the navy did not fully commit itself straight away (1)
and yes the RAF did withdraw north, the germans took the slower reaction time to raids (and it would have been slower), as a sign they had won air dominance.
The germans did have the capacity to carry that number of divisons across this took a week (not 1 day)

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Nevertheless a poor scenario.

From Hastings to Bedford, Cambridge or Milton Keynes its 100 miles or 30 minutes at 200mph.
Second IIRC the RN´s plan was to attack right away, even if that costs a few DD and CL.
Third, 15 divisions in one week? Logistically impossible and if made possible by ABS intervention the Brits are screwed anyway.

Like I said, this is a poor POD the author has choosen and his research is even worse.

http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1242

The aquatic mammal got this thread locked

http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1056

PMN1 said:

http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1242

The aquatic mammal got this thread locked

http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1056

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Hi PNM1,

I remember a website with info of a post-war SL wargame held in Sandhurst and attended by some ex LW and KM leaders. IIRC their estimate was one AB, one airmobile and elements of several infantry divisions would be lost. Unfortunately the website is defunct. You don´t thappen to have the info?

One thing I've never seen with a failed Sealion is: what if all the troops who land in Britain immediately surrender to become an anti-Nazi army much the same way as some Russian soldiers did in the early days on the Eastern Front.

Markus said:

Hi PNM1,

I remember a website with info of a post-war SL wargame held in Sandhurst and attended by some ex LW and KM leaders. IIRC their estimate was one AB, one airmobile and elements of several infantry divisions would be lost. Unfortunately the website is defunct. You don´t thappen to have the info?

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Afraid not, though it may have been lurking at this site

http://historypoliticsandcurrentaffairs68862.yuku.com/

which migrated to here

http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/

when everyone got thoroughly pisse dof with Yuku.

If it is there, it will be in the Essays section

rip89 said:

I was wondering how the course of the war would have gone after a failed sealion.

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There are two good timelines on SHWI on this. They are:

Sealion Fails by Steve Rogers (can be found at: http://www.geocities.com/drammos/sealion1.html)
This is quite long, and doesn't technically follow a failed Sealion as you hope for (Germany goes for Sealion whilst having NEARLY defeated France - France therefore survives so no Vichy). Covers the whole war and some post war thoughts too.

Also
A better show in 1940 by Michele (who posts here I think). You'll need to Google it up on SHWI, lasts about 22 parts but only goes as far as March 1941 (detail is spent on 1940).