Subject: 
            Economic growth in South Vietnam: 1975-2000
       Date: 
            9 Jun 2001 08:29:16 -0700
       From: 
            jonyurchak@hotmail.com (Blue Team)
Organization: 
            http://groups.google.com/
 Newsgroups: 
            soc.history.what-if


POD: 1972. No Watergate, Nixon serves until 1976, South Vietnam repels
northern invasion of mid-1970s with greater US aid and (if necessary)
air and naval intervention.

By 2000, assuming the South remains independent, how does the South
Vietnamese economy compare to the North Vietnamese economy, or to
"tiger" economies like South Korea?  Could South Vietnam achieve a per
capita GDP equal to say, Thailand's?

Does anyone have stats on the relative GDP of South Vietnam and North
Vietnam in 1975?

Here are some stats on the realtive GDP and per capita GDP of unified
Vietnam vs. Thailand and South Korea in OTL.

PER CAPITA GDP

1975                       1998  
Vietnam $85                Vietnam $336
Thailand $362              Thailand $1,890
S. Korea $599              S. Korea $6,956

GDP

1975                       1998
Vietnam $4,071 mil         Vietnam $26,050 mil
Thailand $14,974 mil       Thailand $113,990 mil
S. Korea $21,132           S. Korea $320,748

In OTL, from 1975-1986 unified Vietnam's GDP grew at a 3.8% annual
rate.

From 1987-1998, after introduction of economic reforms, it grew at a
6.9% annual rate.

http://esa.un.org/unsd/mbsdemo/mbssearch.asp


Assuming that in this ATL North Vietnam also does not reform its
Marxist economy until the mid-1980's, it seems likely that at least
from 1975-1985 South Vietnam's economy would be growing significantly
faster than the North's.

Subject: 
            Re: Economic growth in South Vietnam: 1975-2000
       Date: 
            Sat, 16 Jun 2001 23:14:56 -0300
       From: 
            Randy McDonald <mcdonald@isn.net>
Organization: 
            Posted via Supernews, http://www.supernews.com
 Newsgroups: 
            soc.history.what-if
 References: 
            1


Blue Team wrote:
> 
> POD: 1972. No Watergate, Nixon serves until 1976, South Vietnam repels
> northern invasion of mid-1970s with greater US aid and (if necessary)
> air and naval intervention.
> 
> By 2000, assuming the South remains independent, how does the South
> Vietnamese economy compare to the North Vietnamese economy, or to
> "tiger" economies like South Korea?  Could South Vietnam achieve a per
> capita GDP equal to say, Thailand's?

Thailand? Out of the question. Thailand had not been in a state of war
for the past two decades, and its military/political oligarchy wasn't as
spectacularly corrupt as South Vietnam's. The Philippines will be more
like it. South Vietnam will probably be one of those countries that had
great potential but never lived up to its promise.

There's also the questions of South Vietnamese emigration, and its
integration into the wider Southeast Asian community. Without the boat
people episode, I'd say that the sustained openness of South Vietnam and
its status as an American client state will allow for a steady flow of
emigration. As for membership in ASEAN, it depends on whether or not
South Vietnam establishes itself as an accepted and supported polity by
the majority of the South Vietnamese population.

What would be the side-effects in Cambodia and Laos?

> [deletia]

-- 
Randy McDonald

Charlottetown PEI
Canada

<mcdonald (at) isn.net>
<rmcdonald (at) upei.ca>