Simplifying the what if: What happens to the German states in the post-Napoleonic world if Napoleon ends Prussia's role as a Power and this is confirmed in the postwar peace? In real history Austria had hegemony but was being challenged by Prussia which had begun to expand by means of a _Zollverein_ (cutoms union) in 1819. The smaller states feared Prussia for its power and hated its reactionary nature. The smaller states attempted to set up rival customs unions. In an AH where Napoleon marginalized Prussia, and the post Napoleonic settlement did not restore the Kingdom of Prussia as a Power, attempts by the states to form customs unions might succeed in creating a Germany not dominated by Austria. Presumably the struggle between the members of the customs union and Austria would have to be settled by war, as was the struggle between Prussia and Austria. Doug Hoff has posted one such scenario, in which the unification is led by Bavaria. I'll comment on Doug's AH in a separate post. The other possibility is that the movement for German cultural identity and nationalism inspired by French success in casting off the yoke of the old régime, might be more successful than in real history, where it was crushed by Austria and Prussia in 1830 and 1848. Let's explore the possibility of a successful revolution during the period 10 to 20 years after Napoleon is defeated. In real history 1830 was a year of agitation. Just a few months previously, the Greeks had won the war of Independence from Turkey that they had been fighting since 1821. They would become a _de jure_ independent kingdom, recognized by the the London Convention, in 1832 under Otto of Bavaria. The year 1830 started well for France, as it mounted an expedition to Africa and seized Algiers in July. Algeria, would become the first of many colonies in the French overseas empire. But this was not sufficient to satisfy the frustrations of the French people produced by the peace imposed after Napoleon's defeat, and the Restoration of the Bourbon monarchy. After three days of rioting and barricades Charles X abdicated and the Chamber of Deputies called on Louis-Philippe to reign as a constitutional monarch. Revolutionary fever spread across Europe. Belgium revolted from the Kingdom of the Netherlands in August, and established a provisional government in October. In December, the London Conference recognized Belgium's independence. Poland revolted against Russia late in the year. But by September 1831 Russia crushed the revolution. In Germany, Austria had hegemony but was being challenged by Prussia which had begun to expand by means of a _Zollverein_ (customs union ) in 1819. The smaller states feared Prussia for its power. The French July Revolution of 1830 inspired the German revolutionary movement to challenge the old system. This movement had originated in the universities as the _Burschenschaften_ in 1817. It was suppressed in 1819 by the Austrian domiated Diet (parliament) of the Germanic Confederation, which bound sovereigns to control universities through commissioners, and strict censorship of publications, and established an inquistion into secret societies. In 1827 the university movement revived secret clubs, and took the French July Revolution of 1830 as a signal to try again. In September 1830, they were able to force the rulers to abdicate in Brunswick, Saxony, and Hesse-Cassel, and the sovereigns of Hanover, Saxony, and Hesse-Cassel agreed to promulgate constitutions. These states were in northern Germany, sandwiched between Prussian territory in the east (Brandenberg, Silesia, Prussia proper), and in the west (the Rhineland, which was given to Prussia in 1815 by the reactionary victors the Napoleonic wars). Prussia escaped revolution, due to the authority of the king and army, and administrative reforms that increased govermental efficiency. There were some stirrings of revolt in the south German states but few results. The largest south German state continued its southern sloth. Ludwig II, the "mad king" noted for fabulous expenditures, would not begin his rule until later in the century. Austria's Metternich, the mastermind of the post-Napoleonic state system, reacted strongly to the German agitation. The Austrian domiated Diet of the Germanic Confederation limited the power of the new Constitutional Assemblies and renewed restrictions on universities. There was some sympathy in France for the liberal revolts in Germany and Poland in 1830 and in Italy in 1831, but France did not intervene and the liberal movements were snuffed out. The French July revolution of 1830 thus did not fulfil the hopes it had aroused, and the reactionary victors of the post-Napoleonic peace were able to continue to impose the old order. But consider an AH in which Austria dominated the Germanic confederation, as in real history, but Prussia was not a factor. France would not have a July revolution in 1830, but it is probable that after Napoleon's defeat, perhaps delayed by several years because the Kingdom of Prussia had been emasculated during Napoleon's hegemony over Europe, the victorious reactionary powers of Russia and Britain would impose a similar frustrating peace on the French, including Restoration of the Bourbon monarchy. By about 1835 the frustrations of the French would produce a liberal reform similar to real history's July 1830 Revolution. But instead of replacing the restored Bourbons with a Louis Philippe type monarch, the additional five years and admiration for the success of the Jackson presidency in the US (1829-1837 in real history, and the same in this AH) as an attack on privilege, persuades the French during the crisis of 1835 to opt for a US style presidential system. The success of French liberals in 1835 inspires liberal revolutionary attempts accross Europe, just as the French July Revolution of 1830 did in real history. In Germany, the absence of the large Prussian Kingdom would allow the agitation to spread. It's plausible to speculate that Metternich's attempts at repression are met with more effective resistance in northern Germany, and this leads to a series of independence wars on the Belgian and Greek models of real history. After several years some of the revolutionaries have effective control in the Hanover to Saxony zone and they form a common army to fight the Austrians. They expel the Austrians from northern Germany by the 1840's and expand local customs unions. By 1845 they form a Federalrepublik from Brandenberg to the Rhine, modelled on the French Republic. The capital is at Hamburg, the German equivalent of London, a large trading city on a major river. Meanwhile, the region is rapidly industrializing, and the north Germans embark on extensive railroad building, just as did did in real history. The Austrians continue their reactionary hegemony over southern Germany, similar to what they did in real history. By 1855 the interests of the Federalrepublik and Austria are in sharp conflict. The rump state of the Kingdom of Prussia, reduced by Napoleon to East and West Prussia, Pomerania as far west as the Oder River, and the Posen district of Poland, and confirmed in these borders in the post-Napoleonic peace settlemtn, is subsidized by the Federalrepublik to remain neutral in the dispute. Note that the remaining parts of the pre-Napoleonic Kingdom of Prussia, mainly Brandenberg and Silesia, became independent states within the Germanic confederation formed under Austrian domination. The Federalrepublik of 1845 included Brandenberg, but not Silesia. In preparation for war with Austria, the Federalrepublik enters into a secret treaty with the French, who rather than embarking on the Second Empire under Napoleon II (as in real history from 1852 to 1870) are succeeding with the compromise of consitutional presidency established in the crisis of 1835. The French Republic provides a secret subsidy of 250 million Fedmarks to the Federalrepublik to prepare for war against the detested reactionary Austrians. In 1855, the Federalrepublik and Austria engage in a general war, the _Bierhallekreig_, which originated in a property dispute in Munich over acquistion by Federalrepublik business interests of a large group of beer halls and the non-payment of taxes to the King of Bavaria. Most of the fighting is in northern Bavaria and Silesia. The mountainous frontier between Bohemia (modern Czech Republic) and Saxony restricts military movements in this region. Neither has a decisive military advantage, but the Federalrepublik has a greater ability to produce munitions and a more modern supply system. The Federalrepublik gains control of the Rhine basin where its logistics are superior. But in relatively undeveloped Silesia the Federalrepublik is at a disadvantage. Contrast this with real history, where the Kingdom of Prussia defeated Austria in the Seven-Weeks' War in 1866, climaxing at the Battle of Sadowa, in Bohemia near the border with Silesia. The peace settlement in the Treaty of Ulm, 1858, incorporates Baden, Württemberg and the part of Bavaria northwest of the Nüremberg district into the Federalrepublik. The larger part of Bavaria, i.e. the Danube basin downstream from Ulm, is formally incorporated into the Austrian Empire. Silesia is also incorporated into the Austrian Empire. The Federalrepublik agrees to pay 100 million Fedmarks to Austria as compensation for the guilt at causing the war. During the war the Federalrepublik became aware of its inability to hold Silesia against Austria, and to discourage Prussia from allying with Austria, entered into a secret agreement with Prussia to give Prussia a payment of 100 million Fedmarks, and a free hand to attack Austria after the war to reoccupy Silesia, which Prussia had once before acquired by defeating the Austrians, in 1742. The Prussians allowed three months to elapse before provoking an incidient on the border between Posnan and Silesia. The Austrian army had been substantially demobilized by then. Prussian army easily rolled up the remaining Austrian units in Silesia, and invoking the memory of Frederick II, and the injustice of the post-Napoleonic peace settlement, reincorporated Silesia in the Kingdom of Prussia. The war weary Austrians sued for peace and accepted the loss in the second treaty of Breslau, 1859. The Federalrepublik continued to industrialize after 1858, but had to keep a wary eye on its militaristic neighbor to the east, Prussia. The Federalrepublik does not have a common frontier with Russia, and has secret treaties with Russia against both Prussia and Austria. The alliance with France is strong based on common preference for democracy over autocracy, and both support the Italian national movement's efforts to expell Austrian influence from Italy. But there are concerns about the implications of German ethnic nationalism for the Germans in Alsace Lorriane. The Austrian empire, with a greater German proportion of population than in real history, is more assertive about carving up the Ottoman Empire. As in real history it comes into conflict with Russia which is also expanding into the Balkans. Similar themes as real history different details. There is no Anglo-French Crimean War against Russia on behalf of Turkey. This occured in real history in 1853-1854 partly as a result of Napoleon II's military adventurism. Rather the Austrians and the Russians fight the First Balkan War in 1865, which results in Austrian occupation of Croatia and northern Serbia, and Russian occupation of Moldavia and Wallachia. The French Republique and the Federalrepublik have no way of responding effectively to the war and are limited by the reakpolitik, as in real history, that the British were able to put the Ottoman Empire into the British sphere of influence after the Napleonic wars. But by 1875 (similar to real history) there are uprisings against the Ottomans from Bulgaria to Bosnia. Fearful that the Austrians and Russians would take this as a pretext to occupy the rest of the Balkans, the French Republique and the Federalrepublik agree that if they can get the new liberal goverment in Britain, headed by the Scot, Ian Gordon, to provide naval support, they would mount an expedition to secure Greek control of the Dardanelles and independence for the Bulgarians and southern Serbs. They manage to put the package together and in the Second Balkan War the European territory of the Ottoman empire is dismembered. The Russians and Austrians also fight against the Ottomans, and between themselves. They meet with initial success but after two years of nationalist fighting are expelled from Romania and Serbia respectivly. With extensive military and economic support from the French, Germans and British the Greeks are able to occupy Macedonia, the Dardanelles and the Ionian coast. The Ottoman Turks retain Constantinople and its European suburbs, as well as their empire in Asia. This is confirmed by the _Treaty of Paris_ in 1888. There will be further Balkan wars, but as both Austria and Russia were badly burned by the Second Balkan War of 1875 to 1888, they do not attempt to acquire further Balkan territory. Although Russia remains frustrated in its long term objective of securing access to the Mediterranean via the Dardanelles circumstances do not give it a reasonable opportunity to attempt the one-two conquest of Turkish Constantinople and Western-supported Greece. In this AH the Balkans do not provide the ingredients to become the flash-point for a World War. The European scramble for colonies occurs as in the real history of the 19th century, but the details are different. As in real history the game begins with the French conquest of Algiers some time in the 1830's, and ends with the partition of Africa. The British and French still acquire the bulk of the colonies but the Federalrepublik, because it was formed earlier than the Reich of real history, picks up a few more than the Reich. No major difference on the effects on world history.