What Really Happened:
First of all, I would like to give credit where credit is due. The idea for this, together with the information stated here comes from Peter Hopkirk's book Like Hidden Fire: The Plot to Bring Down the British Empire, however, Mr. Hopkirk is in now way responsible for the violence done in this scenario. On February 21, 1915 Indian Sikhs and Pakistani Muslims were ready to revolt against the British. All they needed was an arms shipment from Germany. An Italian Customs employee noticed that the artillery disguised as tent poles were really artillery, and he stopped the shipment.
What If:
If the Italian Customs inspector had been not noticed, and the arms had reached India?
February 1915
The German owned ship Bayern, loaded with machine guns, artillery, revolutionary uniforms, pamphlets, and rifles leaves Genoa bound for India. Easing through the Suez Canal under a Swiss flag, it reaches to India on the 15th. Likewise, several passenger ships from the United States west coast and Vancouver loaded with Sikh émigrés return, as well as Subhase Chundra Bose and his student cell from London.
In the following days, the weapons are distributed amongst revolutionary cells throughout India. One man, a former 23rd cavalryman, is a spy for the British. He reports in on the Sikh and Hindu plans to overthrow the government. A Ghandr agent is preaching in Karachi, asking Sikhs and Muslims to join them because the Sikhs will have to cut their hair and the Muslims will eat pig if they continue to serve the British. This begins a peaceful demonstration, but they irritate the British soldiers with chants and catcalls. As a preplanned response, the British fire into the crowd. They kill 25, and wound hundreds. It kills Muslims, Sikhs, and Hindus, the first violence between natives and occupiers in several years.
Realizing the propaganda value of this even, the Ghandr leaders delay so that the news of the Karachi Massacre will spread across India. The Sikh cells move into their places, as do the Bengalis. There are fewer Muslims or Hindus, but more than before the Massacre.
The rebels have a little bit of a witch hunt, and they find the British spy, who turns double agent. He informs them that Britain is aiming for infiltration of Ghandr and to be warry of new recuits. The Ghandr leadership decides to accept some new members after heavy screening, and postpone their rebellion until April.
April 25, 1915
The revolution begins. India explodes into a civil-revolutionary war lead by 48,000 Sikhs whose motto is 'Maro Ferangi Ko' or Kill the English. This war is not just a war of Independence, but it is a war of vengeance and genocide against the British overlords of India. From Dacca to Punjab cities are in flames. It is the Rebellion of 1857 on grand scale, one that could bring down the British Empire. Indian units are killing their white officers and joining the revolution.
If the revolt had occurred in peacetime, the Indian Army would have gotten ample help from throughout the Empire. Now that England is at war however, a skeltonized Indian Army defends India, down from a peacetime strength of a quarter of a million to little more than half that number. That Army is no match for fanatic Indians armed with modern weapons. The furthest fringes of British India and Bengal are in the hands of the revolutionary by mid-spring.
May 1915
Italy looks into Entente offers for it to join in the war against Austria-Germany. Seeing what is going on in India makes them decide to hold their neutrality a bit longer. This really irritates the British, but is great of the Austrians, who really don't need another front.
June-September 1915
The revolutionaries surround Delhi and Calcutta by the summer. This is achieved in two ways. First, many garrisons are led by white officers control large numbers of Indian troops, and in this revolt, the troops rise up, murder their officers, and give munitions and expertise to the revolutionaries. The Royal British Navy ships in India and nearby colonies experience similar Indian mutinies, leading to a fair sized Indian Navy. Secondly, the situation rapidly degrades because the British cannot send troops into the area. The British cannot send in troops because the Indian Navy as well as the shore guns. The number of troops lost in these operations numbers 2,000.
The icing on the cake is the Ceylon campaign. Beyond the losses mentioned above, the British suffer something worse. They were able to get an expeditionary force of 20,000 ANZAC troops, headed for Gallipoli, to Ceylon. The British First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill, hopes to grab Ceylon as springboard with which to retake all of India.
However, Ceylon is not under the control of the mainland. Ceylon had fallen to a separate rebel group led by Singhalese. Singhalese represent a majority of the population of Ceylon. Under the Raj, the Singhalese were ruled by the favored Tamil minority, which was imported and expanded by immigrants from the Indian mainland.
That kind of government makes Ceylon similar to Ireland. The Tamils are concentrated in the north, the Singhalese to the south, both hate the other. The Singhalese want a real easy excuse to crack some Tamil heads open, and they use the Ghandr revolution as an excuse to kill some Tamils, and in the process, eject their British backers by giving Ghandr a bit of lip service.
To that end, the Singhalese seize some of the armories intact, and have made good use of antiquated Nordenfelts. The ANZAC troops that come ashore are without any form of artillery or heavy guns. They come right into the sites of the Singhalese Nordenfelts, which chew some of the divisions to pieces, while others land on the north of the island, into the welcoming arms of the Tamils. The island soon becomes split between a British occupied north to a nominally free Ghandr south. The Asquith government makes plans to use more troops in Ceylon to open it as a base to retake India. They need to free up some troops to do so, so that one of their other plans must cease. The British downsize some of the offensives planned by Sir John French, Commander-in-Chief of the BEF in France and Belgium. To that end, 100,000 troops are withdrawn from France and brought out at Bordeaux. They are taken back to England to be retrained and reequipped for jungle fighting.
The Tories, with Churchill’s instigation, give a non-confidence vote to Asquith’s government saying “withdrawing troops from the Continent at this point could weaken the morale of our French allies to the point that their lines may collapse and the German’s would gain dominance on the Continent.” The Asquith government falls a year and a half earlier than it did in OTL, Churchill gets some political cover from Ceylon and giving the Tories the Asquith government. The plan to use 100,000 troops to invade India is scaled down to 50,000
The new government is headed by Lord Balfour with David Lloyd George as Minister of Munitions. Lord Balfour is a Tory progressive who likes new technologies and is willing to escalate the war to any extent on all fronts. Without those troops, some of the French lines develop gaping holes, leading to the conscription of a higher and higher amount of the French population, leaving farms empty, with a large part of the harvest rotting in the fields.
September-October 1915
The great cities of the British Raj are now merely garrisoned islands in a sea of Pan-Indian nationalism. Sikhs, Hindus, Muslims, and Buddhists all have united against the British as a result of the Karachi Massacre and Ghandr instigation. There are several major redoubts of pro-British groups. In southern India, across from Ceylon, Tamils support their close relatives across in Ceylon by agitating Indian plans to launch an attack across from their ports. Some parts of the revolution have gone from rebellion to cheat reasons to rape and loot. To remedy this, a Revolutionary Council is formed. It has three executive members. Subhase Chundra Bose from Bengal, Vinayak Savarkar from north India, and Har Dayal from the Deccan. The Muslims feel a bit left out, but since their majority is in furthest away from the seat of government, and they are already nominally independent from the British, so need to take less of a part in the revolution. In Union of South Africa, a young Mahatma Ghandi takes interest in the goings on in India. He attempts to book himself on any ship heading for India. None are leaving from South Africa, so Ghandi heads for Persia, which is the only nearby power that could help send him home to India. He will arrive in Persia on the 13th of October and proceed from there to Baluchistan, and then into the heart of India.
At the end of the summer the rebellion spreads into British-Russo Persia and Afghanistan by way of several German agents. Those German agents, Wassmuss, Von Hentig, and Niedermayer bearing guns, gold, chocolates for the beys and emirs. The wild steppe nomads of Persia and Afghanistan spill over into the Russian Caucus and Russian Central Asia rising local Turcoman and Muslims against their masters.
The worst nightmare of the British and Russians begins a Muslim Holy War against both in their old Great Game territory. The British and Russian governments are desperate, because both need to keep attacking or defending against the Germans in Europe and have little to spare, the British after Ceylon and the Russians after Tannenburg. The Russians however, are able to repress their Muslim subjects in Turkestan with an extra division of Cossacks. The Russians are doing this because the Turkestan area is like a giant cotton farm, and cotton is key to making dynamite, uniforms, and dozens of other military items. Turkestan, however harshly repressed is on the verge of a rebellion, the men are forced to harvest cotton, which remains at a fixed government low while food prices skyrocket. When the Russians face greater difficulty at the front, the enlist Turkestanis to build earthworks and various other defensive activities. The Turkestanis, however, believe that their sons are being shipped off to die, against the word of the Tzar, who promised not to get any of them into the war. Despite the reprisals of the Cossacks, Russian Central Asia is going to come to a roiling boil of conflagration and civil war with the right spark.
Baku, Russian Caucus 31 October
The Russian Caucus is key to the war. It supplies oil to Russian and her allies, and it allows a quick route into the Ottoman Empire. At this moment, the Russian Army is moving toward Ezerum, a Turkish stronghold, hoping to gain the first real Entente victory of the war and the first nail in the coffin of the Ottoman Empire. But the Caucus is not stable; Muslim Azerbaijanis, Christian Georgians and Armenians, all carry bloodfeuds against the other, and the Tsarist government frequently uses this distrust to gain greater control of the region. This time, the Tsarists need better control to secure good supply lines into the Ottoman Empire. Therefore, when Stepan Shumain, a Georgian/Armenian socialist later nicknamed "the Caucasian Lenin" holds an anti-war/anti-Tsarist rally in the center of the town, the Tsarists think they have struck gold. The Tsarists turn around and tell an Azjeris unit to break up the rally. When the Azjeri unit reaches the square and requests that the rally break up, someone throws a bottle. The Azerbaijanis respond by opening fire on the rally. Though the Georgians and Armenians do carry some firearms, they are no match for the Azerbaijanis, and are butchered.
The response from the Armenian community is swift and deadly. An Armenian crewed ship in the harbor, the Kruger bombards the Muslim quarter of Baku. The Muslims, in response, open up their armory. Over the years of racial and ethnic conflict, the Muslims have stored up plenty of weapons, including one Maxim gun. They arm themselves with thousands of small arms and rifles, and attack the Armenian and Georgian quarters, killing civilians. The headquarters for the Muslims insurgents is the Hotel d'Europe, built when Baku was a booming oil town. The Georgians and Armenians are able to counter attack with a force of 8,000 mercenaries, mostly farmers with shotguns and citimen with pistols. All the while, the Tsarists alternate between aiding one side and the other, or trying to put the lid back on the whole bloodbath.
After five days of bloody killings and reprisals 12,000 people are dead, 7,500 Muslims and 4,500 Orthodox Christians as well as all 2,000 Tsarist troops that garrisoned the city. The civil disorder and ethnic violence spreads throughout the Caucus region, west to Batum and as far north as Vladikavkaz. That violence, in turn, spreads into Russian Central Asia where Muslim gentlemen farmers rise up and kill the Cossacks garrisons in Tashkent and Akmola. They take weaponry, cut rail lines, and declare the Central Asian Emirate, which controls modern-day Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan, a large part of Russian food and trade good production--grain, cotton, and potatoes second only to the black earth region of the Ukraine.
In the Caucus, Tsarist garrisons have been annihilated, with the exception of the garrison of Astrabakan. The Russian Caucus has fallen into chaos. That means that the Russian army headed for Ezerum is without a supply-line.
The British Raj November 1915
The remaining British forces in India, holding Delhi, Calcutta, Bushire, and Hyderabad finally collapse under relentless assault from Sikhs and Hindus. Lord and Lady Haridge, the Viceroy and his wife, are captured by the Hindus and kept as bargaining chips. But the Indians still have a long way to go, as England can continue to launch attacks from the Kuwait into Persia then India, and India is weak along the border of Indochina where France can attack it. A few British troops and civilians manage to make it to Portuguese Goa, where they are interned. Others head for Mysore and Madras, where the Tamils and French control the area.
Eastern Turkey/Kurdistan November 1915
Meanwhile, the Russian Caucasian Army is defeated and captured by Enver Pasha's 'Army of Islam" at Sarikamish. This victory is absolutely critical to the Ottoman Empire for two reasons.
First, the Arabs in the south were on the verge of rebellion, as they did in OTL, but become more and more timid as the Germans and their ally, the Ottoman Empire, continue to win prestige and power in the Middle East.
Second, the Russian Caucasian Army eventually attacked and captured Ezerum, which was an absolutely critical shot in the arm to Allied moral, as Gallipoli and the Western front had been big disasters in BTL. Without that victory, British and French troops might not be able to execute any sort of credible defense at the Battle of Verdun.
Caucus, 21 November
Micheal Romanov, leader of the Azerji Savage division, enters the Caucus to restore order with his troops. All parties in the Caucus see this action as suspect. The Georgians and Armenians think that the Tsarists have sold them down the river. The Azerjis are glad to have their sons back, but wonder whether they will join the rebellion or crush it.
New York, December, 1915
Henry Ford's peace ship, Oskar II, begins voyage to Europe carrying humanitarian aid to England and France. However, America's feelings toward the war in Europe are still hesitant and disinterested though Americans many immigrant communities wish to enter on different sides of the war. The West coast begins to have extremely pro-Entente views, and uses this as an excuse to beat Sikh, Hindu, and Muslim emigrants.
London
Haig becomes Commander-in-Chief of British Expeditionary Force, replacing Sir John French. Lord Balfour begins to integrate tanks into the BEF. Indian Office mandarins demand an offensive from offensive from Kuwait to Baghdad and then into Persia. Petrograd
Bread riots begin; workers protest the price of food and its scarcity. Textile workers protest lack of pay and lack of work. The revolt in Turkestan means that they have no cotton to work, and thus no income. Several workers groups begin to form unions led by soviets.
Rasputin tells the Tzarina to ignore the rebellion, which she does. The riots intensify when news of the capture and defeat of the Russian Caucasian Army reaches Moscow and Petrograd. Rasputin continues to maintain control over policy-making in the capitol as the Tsarvich becomes weaker and the royal family falls under his spell.
Tsar Nicholas attempts to uses the Army to force the Germans out of the Ukraine where they gained a major foothold after the Gorlice offensive, but fails badly, costing himself one million men. Seeing his inability to lead, he give the reigns of power to Evert and Brusilov, and returns to Petrograd to help restore order.
New York City, January 1916
Wilson launches nationwide whistle-stop campaign to generate support for Preparedness and the Continental Army with three speeches in New York. War College Division warns its civilian employees "to engage in no discussion whatever concerning the progress of the European War"
19 January, Vladikavkaz
Michael has been able to restore order in the north, in the area around Vladikavkaz, but only by shooting everyone, which makes everyone mutually pissed off at the Tsarists. Some of his troops have defected after they were forced to fire on Azjeris. They have made their way south into Baku, where they offer their services as “advisors” to the local Azjeris.
Kut, Ottoman Empire/Iraq
The British garrison and a small expeditionary force numbering in total 9,000, intended to go up the Tigris River and capture Baghdad led by General Charles Townshed, are besieged inside the city by Ottoman troops. Verdun, Western Front
British troops, led by Douglas Haig, and French troops, led by Nivelle, launch an offensive from Verdun fortress into German lines, beginning a ten-month battle. For the first time tanks are integrated and used in the war by the BEF as well as wireless radio communications, which substantially help Allied coordination. Baku, Russian Caucus
Oil refineries are lit afire by Muslim insurgents in a battle to take Baku from the Armenians, worsening the demand for oil by the Russian Army on the Eastern front. The city itself has turned into rubble after months of fighting. Azjeris and Georgians shoot at each other around the ruins of dachas.
Radom-Lublin, Grand Duchy of Poland
Austro-German troops smash through the defenses around two major Polish cities, inflicting 300,000 Russian casualties. This victory does what Ezerum did for the Allies in OTL. It is a giant shot in the arm to the morale of the Central alliance and keeps Portugal from joining the Allies. It also brings Rumania and Bulgaria into the war with the Central powers, giving them the famous Polesti oilfields. As Russia weakens, German-Bulgarian troops press southwest into Macedonia and rout the Anglo-French force there, which is led by General Maurice Sarrail and General George Milne, whom are captured as additional bargaining chips. The Germans promptly restore the government of King Constantine, rather than the puppet government set up by the French. Venzilos is deposed and replaced with a pro-neutral Prime Minister. Petrograd-Moscow
Protesting increases, including railroad engineers and conductors, severely limiting the mobility of the Russian army, as well as starving it. The situation around the nation is increasingly tense, as the protests gain strength and not enough concession are made. Tehran, Persia
Free Persia is declared. The British-led South Persian rifles are attacked and defeated by the pro-German Swedish Gendarme troops at Kabul. To the North, the Russians have evacuated, making the new Persia safe and relatively independent for the time being. St. Louis, February, 1916
Wilson delivers final speech of Preparedness campaign in Saint Louis and is shouted down by Austro-German immigrants. Acting Secretary of War Hugh L. Scott asks United States War College Division if any plans exist in the event "of a complete rupture" with Germany Petrograd.
Seeking to remedy the situation, the Czar issues a series of reforms to help the workers and relax the situation during the first two weeks. These reforms disrupt the systems and lead to the disapproval of several conservative generals. This also irritates the nobility to no end. They are really angry at the Czar, because this sees a significant reduction of their power, and they ain't gonna have that. So, there are rather quiet movements in court while the peasantry enjoys its newfound freedom. Nobles close to the Tzar and in favor of reform are maneuvered out of power. They are replaced by nobles who favor the Czarina, and thus, Rasputin.
This new group quickly chips away at the reforms after the Czar returns to the front. By the end of February, the reforms are wiped out. With the defeat of the reforms that had helped them, hungry, poor peasants and workers begin a revolution in earnest. They besiege the Winter Palace after killing Palace Guard. The remainder of European Russia begins to rebel against the Tsarist government, attacking garrisons and government draft officials. The Tsar withdraws some armies from the front to come and put down the rebellion, instead they join up with the revolutionaries. The Eastern Front will collapse within a month.
Serbia
The country is overrun by German-Bulgarian troops. Belgrade is sacked and members of the Black Hand and Young Serbia are hunted in the streets. This ties down three divisons from Vosoges. London.
Disturbed by the Russian collapse, Sir Douglas Haig presses the Balfour government for more and more men. He gets what he wants, something on the order of 200,000 ANZAC troops--basically cannon fodder. At the end of ten months, the Battle of Verdun is worse than the Somme in OTL, at its peak chewing up 80,000 Entente troops in one day in August. The Germans continue to push hard and break through the forts and take Verdun on the first of March.
10 March 1916, Petrograd
Cumulation of the 'February revolution' Tsar Nicholas II abdicates. Chaos ensues throughout Russia. White Russians form up to fight various nationalist groups that have sprung up. A few Royalists back the current Tzar and Tzarina, while most of the nobility wants them replaced by Prince Yussapov.
Territories under German occupation find that their nationalist aspirations are supported by Berlin, Vienna, and Constantinople
Berlin
Elated at the collapse of Russian troops in revolution Germany wishes to create greater chaos, but does not send Lenin to Finland Station as the situation on the Eastern and Western Fronts is less desperate. Therefore, the press further into Russia than they did in OTL, getting as far as Estonia and begin secret negations in Tallinn with the provisional Russian Government, currently led by Kerensky.
This offensive gives the drained Austrian army a much-needed breather in the East against the Russians, allowing them to rotate out various troops for further training. They also use the time to get the Russian rails that they control back into working order by using Russian rolling stock. The Germans do likewise in their sectors and begin to armor trains in Warsaw.
Using some of their U-boats, Germany begins clandestine operations aiding Irish Catholics against English occupation by giving them guns, grenades, and some military advisors that will lead to 'the Lent rebellion' on the 28th. On the 28th an effective Irish Catholic government gains control of Dublin and some surrounding territories until Easter Monday, when they are routed and killed by British troops. A French passenger ship, Sussex, torpedoed off of Bordeaux, and an American passenger ship, the Baltic, is torpedoed off Dublin harbor.
Mexico-US border, Arizona-New Mexico
Pancho Villa's raid on Columbus, New Mexico on the first of the month causes 'Black Jack' Pershing starts pursuit of Villa into Mexico leading to a disgrace of the US Army at the Battle of El Paso del Sur. In response, the Army begins to beef up.
April 1916
Kut, Ottoman Empire
The British garrison at surrenders to the Ottoman troops surrounding the city on the 29th. 9,000 British troops captured, some of the Indians suspected in being in league with the Ottomans.
Tallin, Russia
Feeling that the Russian negotiators are stalling, Germany threatens to release Pravus and Lenin into Russia. The Russian negotiator laughs this off, say that "they are in Switzerland, beyond your jurisdiction.'' In response, the German autocrat states that the German and Ottoman armies will continue to advance until the Russian government can commit itself to the negotiations. The Russians know that the Germans and Ottomans need those troops elsewhere, and therefore they do not believe the Germans. The Russians also know that they are walking a dangerous line between war and peace, and they are tremendously careful, but are wasting time so that they can regroup and gain concession from the Germans. Russia is currently having several major issues. Rasputin has been poisoned by Prince Yussipov and his faction. The Czar and the Czarina have been rather politely replaced by Yussipov, crowned Alexis II amid the flames of Petrograd. He is not really reform minded, but to placate the masses he has moved toward a constitutional monarchy, giving more power to the Duma. As the people search for leaders, some other factions begin to rear their ugly heads including Bolsheviks, Mensheviks, and Radical Socialists, all promoting the end of the monarchy.
At the end of April, after the Russians continued resistance, the Germany armies come sweeping forward once again, smashing everything in their way. However, it is the middle of winter, and advancing more than a few miles a day is very hard. The German army is happy and determined, but the Russian army has shrinking morale and starvation. This makes advancing somewhat easier, but it is still a Russian winter. The Germans use armored trains, and move up to thirty miles a day. The Russians have really no way to stop this but to destroy their tracks, which they do with gusto. Once the Germans penetrate to Minsk, they have no more tracks. They detrain and begin to march deeper into Russia. When they reach the eastern edge of Byelorussia, the Russians decide to start negotiating again. This time they just give up to the Germans. In the Treaty of Helsinki, the Germans nominally gain control of nothing. In the treaty, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Byelorussia, the Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are granted independence from Russia.
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Byelorussia, and the Ukraine fall under German control. They all promise to export various amounts of foodstuffs to Germany in exchange for 'protection'.
With Russia defeated, the Trans-Siberian Railway broken by the Emirate of Turkestan, the Japanese see this as a good time to add to their 21 demands. They now want control of all of Manchuria as well as the port Vladivostock. The Russians really can't do anything about this, and Japan proceeds to chew off a big chunk of territory.
20 April, Rome
The German and Austrian ambassadors ask the Italians to join the Central powers. The Central Powers offer southern Albania, the area around Corfu, and loads of Greek island, including the Dodecanese and Pelopanese, a “sorting out” of the issue of Trieste, and several major French African colonies. The Italians jump at this, and declare war on France and England. They are specifically interesting in retrieving Savoy-Piedmont and maybe even Marseilles. They will take a month to fully mobilize for the war.
The Entente now must tread carefully. They have greater supplies and reserves than Germany alone, and hope to defeat her in “sideshows” but the cannot continue are now going to be hard pressed. The withdrawal of Russia from the war at the same time that Italy enters for the Central Powers terrifies the Entente. Their hopes of control of the Balkans and saving Serbia have floundered. The Germans will be able to bring in thirty divisions wherever they please, likely into the Western Front. Twenty divisions are left in German puppet states to maintain order, secure oil from the Caucus, and wheat from the Ukraine.
The Germans, however, are torn as to a course of action. The attacks by the French and the British are destroying the lines around Verdun, but at high cost to the English and French. Luddendorff would like nothing more than to pour all of his troops around Verdun; Hindenburg disagrees. Instead, he opts for an offensive through Normandy and down into Paris, similtanious with the Italian attack on Toloun. After much fighting, the Luddendorff aquesses to Hindenburg. Plans are arranged for Operation Theodoric. German artillery, calvary, and infantry massed behind the lines, preparing to thrust boldy into Paris. Meanwhile, some divisions are split off and are used to shore up Verdun, as are new poison gas artillery shells. The Italian forces, lead by General Cordoza prepare for Operation Julius Caeser. All offensives are planned to be launched on the fifteenth of May, the anniversery of Napoleon's death.
May, London
The Balfour government offers the Jewish community the Zionist Delcaration, offering control of Palestine and most of the Levant to the Jews if they so wish to fight for it. Voleenter corps spring up across England and France, and are to be shipped off to Egypt after a month's training.