"Arrows for my tears." Illiad, Book I
"Out of their father's and sweet mother's graves
Grows the vine of rebellion
Whose flower they embrace."
In 1896, the Ethiopians fought and defeated the Italians and the British at Adowa, with an army of 100,000 men armed with the newest French equipment. King Menelik II began a series of reforms and modernization that were bringing the country up to European standards, until he had a series of strokes beginning in 1906, caused by smoking. His reforms were discontinued, and his country fell apart over issues of succession.
What If:
Menelik II, a violent anti-European, survived longer than in OTL, into World War One? The Coptic Church balked at smoking, though Menelik ignored this and smoked like a chimney. That led to his stroke. What if the Church put its foot down, demanding that he stop smoking? That would derail his death.
Initially the ripples of Menelik’s longer life doesn’t change anything-the Balkan Wars and Russo-Japanese war are the same. But in some places things change. Though the Tripartite Convention of 1906 still takes place between England, France, and Italy and still Germany strongly objects to it. The German Legislate in Addis Ababa gives Menelik a copy of the secret treaty in early 1907. Outraged, he cancels his treaty of Friendship and Commerce with France and instead signs one with Germany.
In Ethiopia, industrialization goes farther faster, because Menelik is more able to rally people to his cause with greater health. This makes Ethiopia an admirable country that can rival Turkey, Russia and Italy. With the help of Germany, Menelik intends to create a reformed Ethiopia. Menelik takes a liking to General Schlieffen, and has great respect for the policy of Blood and Iron.
Ethiopia develops nationwide train, telegraph, and telephone service, as well as bridges spanning all major rivers. At the suggestion of his heir, Menelik begins to treat Muslims equal with Coptics, which initially outrages the Coptic nobility, which Menelik placates with cash gifts and developing their various regions. Major industries are developed throughout the country, centering at Addis Ababa. Ethiopia, unlike most countries, is also allowed to import weaponry from Europe and America, which gives it a major advantage.
In British South Africa there is increased unrest from the Boers, with increased dreams of freedom from England envious of the Ethiopians. The colonies adjacent to Ethiopia become increasingly rebellious. In Liberia, a more militaristic Americo-Liberian regime took control of the country, and transformed it to the level of Russia, Turkey, and China while distancing itself from America and growing closer with Germany, which controls a third of the national economy. Liberia then allies itself with Ethiopia, against the repeated encroachments upon their sovereignty by England and France. Their army begins to reform along the lines of the Ethiopian Army.
World War One goes off without a hitch. The assassinations occur on 28 June and the British enter in due course. The Western front stabilizes as trench warfare and the Eastern front is slightly worse for the Germans, the Russian army reaches farther faster in TTL, reaching Torun (South of Gdansk, at 53.041 N, 18.661 E).
Menelik feels that it is a pity both sides can’t loose. Even though he likes the Germans, he would like to throw all white men out of Africa. He dislikes the British and French more because they declared war against Ethiopia with the Italians. Despite both facts Menelik has no problem giving covert help to the Germans against the British and French African Companies and visa versa.
May 1915
The captain of U-234 turns around rather than enters the Sea of Ireland; Lusitania safely docks in Dublin.
The British are furious with the stalemate on the Western Front and commence secret negotiations to bring Italy into the war against the Germans. With a great deal of cajoling and promises of land on the Adriatic and in Ethiopia, Italy enters the war in May 1915. Though Italy is technically both a Great Power and a member of the Central Alliance it declares war against its allies; The war it commences is weak, because Italy is deficient in arms and armies and depends on the Alps for natural defense. However, it draws two Austro-Hungarians divisions south to guard the borders, which will become twelve later.
Ethiopia and Liberia quite pleased by the declaration of war. This means that they could get into the war, and gain territory at the expense of England, France, or Germany. Then each country looks at declaring for each side would have to offer. For Ethiopia, getting some of its coastline back would be very important, but only France is willing to give them anything, and just the port of Djibouti. Liberia would have much to gain if England gave them Sierra Leone. But, as in Ethiopia’s case, they have a grudge against England and France. Both had repeatedly tried to turn Liberia into their colony. Germany, despite the fact that it has nothing to offer territorially, it built both countries up for war.
Both countries begin quiet negations with their German consuls. Two secret treaties are concluded, one in Monrovia, one in Addis Ababa. The treaty between Germany and Liberia promises rewards of Sierra Leone and French Africa, as well as the right to import arms. Germany also plans various developments in the country after the war. The Treaty of Addis Ababa gives Ethiopia the right to the coast of the entire Horn of Africa, giving Germany exclusive trade rights over those ports. It also allows for the dismemberment of Anglo Egypt-Sudan. Ethiopia and Liberia declare war on Italy on May 15, 1915. In August 1915, the British government declares war on Ethiopia. France is currently on the ropes and makes no moves against Ethiopia.
June 1915
The numerous and mostly modern Ethiopian army, caged for so long, is able to release all of its anti-imperialist aggression. By the end of June the Ethiopians control British Somaliland, and Italian Eritrea. After taking Eritrea, Menelik restores Ras Alula to the throne that was taken away from him eighteen years ago. The two sign a treaty of cooperation and friendship, marrying Menelik's son to Alula's daughter.
Ships belonging to France, England, and Italy stationed in those territories are captured. After training from the crew of Konigsberg, the ships quickly become the Ethiopian Navy, staffed by German officers. That new navy attacks Aden, a key British coaling station on the Arabian side of the Red Sea, and shells it into submission, receiving more ships and the all-important coal. Those gains were fairly easy, as those locales have been drained of troops for the war in Europe. The Ethiopian Navy is lucky, it is small and unlikely to survive long, but for now the RN is very much occupied elsewhere.
The Liberians mount an attack on Sierra Leone, a key British coaling and radio territory. The Liberians are able, with great causalities, to take control of the southernmost quarter of the country. The area that the Liberians grab off is rich in diamonds, titanium ore, bauxite, iron ore, gold, and chromite.
This may not be much, but in the next few years the Ethiopians will be able to threaten the Suez Canal, linchpin of the British Empire and the Liberians will have a powerful hard currency taken from British mines. The lose of these minerals, which make the Liberian currency hard will destabilize the British financial market. That, in turn, will weaken British buying power for weapons and food.
August 1915, Pretoria, British Union of South Africa
Since Ethiopia and Liberia entered the war, Transvaal and the Orange Free State have teetered at the edge of a second rebellion. In February of 1915, General Chirstaan de Wet led a brief and weak revolt of 11,000. As the Central Powers score more points in Africa, Jan Smuts weighs the balance of power. Though England has made him Prime Minister of the Union of South Africa, he would prefer to see a free Boer state, and if openly aligning with Germany gets him that, and there is a good chance of it, he will make the gamble for independence. He calls back a division of soldiers from the Durban Light Infantry and one division of cavalry from the Imperial Light Horse, both members of the Citizen Force, most of whom are Boers. He brings in Generals de Wet and Botha and begins to discuss with them his plan for a revolt. The three Boer leaders agree that they must weight for a decisive German victory--or a decisive British defeat--on the Western Front. That victory is far off--the second battle of Champagne on September 27th, which gives the conspirators time to stock up weapons and other important items--and to call units back from the fight with Lettow-Vorbeck.
That, in turn gives Lettow-Vorbeck a free hand, and with a free hand he can become devastating. Between the reduction of forces and his tactics, occupying Tanzania becomes impossible for the Rhodesians, who manage to hang on to only the southwestern tip of the country. Lettow-Vorbeck leaves his Askaris to continue the fight while he coordinates plans with Menelik and Rus Alula, king of Somaliland, in Mogadiscio. They plan to use Menelik’s new navy will cut Europe off from Asia and Australia while maintaining a strong line on the new Ethiopian borders. Menelik will also begin to ship American weapons and supplies into Tanzania by way of Somaliland.
August 1915 Berlin
While Lettow-Vorbeck plots in Africa, it has become abundantly clear to the General Staff that Wassmuss, the German spy in Persia, is failing badly. He is immediately recalled to Kabul, thence to Constantinople where he is told that he will be taken to French Algeria to lead the Arabs and Berbers in the Abd-el-Krim-the hundred-year war against France and Spain. Thereafter he is but aboard the Bulgarian ship Karl I and shipped to Oran.
27 September, 1915 Champagne, France
British army defeated by the entrenched Germans, becomes a near massacre of the attacking British army. A small number of the units involved were Boer units. They suffered over 100% casualties. When the news and the coffins reach South Africa near the end of the month, the Boers aren’t too happy. When the British casualties are laid to rest in Ladysmith, the British population sings “Good Save the King” as they begin “Rule Britannia”; the Boer population of Capetown becomes utterly disgusted. General Botha has been out agitating them for a possible rebellion.
As the British mourn their newly dead, the Boers mourn the dead of the Siege of Ladysmith and the concentration camps, where their loved ones were murdered. Separatist feeling boil to the surface as the British continue to celebrate their ‘heroes.’ The Boers begin to sing pro-German songs in response. The British become louder, and so do the Boers, until the Boer crowd surges into the British. Fists fly and it rapidly degrades into mob violence, where many people are killed.
The local regiment of British soldiers comes out to stop the violence, and fire on the Boers. This causes the situation to degenerate further. The Boers feel that their people were targeted by the British soldiers and would like to have them tried in a Boer court. The British refuse, and the soldiers were restoring order and were not committing murder. The dead Boers are charged with treason.
By the 15th of October, the British Union of South Africa is in ashes. The Boer burghers and farmers, who remember the war their fathers fought, and again take up arms against England. This time, however, women join. Remembering how they were put into camps and killed the last time, few men resist this. Though the women do not see any frontline fighting, they are able to serve all sorts of important functions. This is a major step, and many suffragettes worldwide encourage these women to fight on, if not for the Boers, for equality.
Zulus, Bushmen, and Hottentots all resist the British, but only the Boer rebellion is organized. The others are just excuses for looting with some nationalistic feelings, with the exception of the Zulu rebellion. At the end of the Anglo-Zulu War, thirteen Zulu chieftains were installed as replacements for Cetshwayo, who returned in 1883, causing a major civil war. The children or grandchildren of those thirteen now rule Zululand, under the supervision of a British puppet king. Some of them have unrealistically strong nostalgia for freedom, remembering Cetshwayo’s reign as a Golden Age.
When the Boers rebel, five of the thirteen rebel immediately. Two more take a wait and see stance, the remainder maintaining a pro-British stance. The feelings of their respective subjects vary. Though the British have given these kings authority, many see them as puppets of the system, especially those who side with England. Many people from the Pro-British kingdoms defect and join up with other kingdoms, while some nobles plot coups to place their own man on the throne again.
British Occupied German Southwest Africa, 28 October
With their home in turmoil, the KAR is ordered to return to BUSA to ‘restore order’. Most have already left to save their homes and families from being looted. The remaining Boers free what German officers there are in the local gaols and place themselves under their command. There are very few troops in Namibia; most of them are consigned to defense of the German colony against the British or the French.
Algeria, 14 November
With Menelik triumphant and the Boers in rebellion, Wassmuss springs his trap. The Abd-el-Krim becomes a public, violent war. French Gendarmes are attacked and killed. The Swedish Gendarmes go over to Wassmuss and the “Germans”; giving the Moslem tribesmen much needed guns. The French and Spanish farmers are attacked and their property is destroyed. Acts of terrorism in Orhan and Algiers grow and grow. In response, the French colonial government cracks down on the general population. Slowly, sympathy for the fighters of the Abd-el-Krim builds, as the entire population suffers for all being thought of as terrorist rebels. The local population eventually begins to identify with the rebels more than the French and Spanish occupying forces.
Watching the current Algerian crisis are Moroccans who have a similar distaste. They weigh the balance of power in Algeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa. Without a clear-cut victory for either side, they wait, sitting on their hands, not rebelling nor staying loyal, as they could be invaded from Gibraltar.
25 November, London
The Entente begins to weigh the balance of power. They need to finish up the Western Front so that they can put down the rebellions in their colonies. Until then, they can do little but send their navies out to shell cities, but cannot make major inroads.
With mounting demands for troops in the colonies to put down rebellion, the British name Haig Commander-in-Chief of the BEF, because of his plan to defeat the Germans. Haig’s plan is to build up troops and make a unified attack on German lines from the French fort at Verdun, with a simultaneous amphibious attack launched by the Royal Marines on Zeebrugge, a Belgian coastal city held by the Germans. Haig's plan to used massed troops is pushed forward to the earliest possible date, 20 December.
In the colonies, the native colonial troops and various gendarmes aren’t very able to maintain even the current leaves of order, as they are made up of various neutral nations, who have their own interests in changing the outcome.
Swedish and Bulgarian gendarmes are generally pro-Central Alliance while Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, and Romanian are pro-Entente. They are able to fight it out with each other, but see no change in supplies or forces, so that small tit for tat battles continue in all the colonies, neither side able to gain the upper hand. In some case, Gendarme supplies make their way to rebel forces, which tilts the balance in some battles, but not enough for a decisive victory.
Countries who were edging toward the Entente slowly edge away. Portugal, who had plans to enter the war for the Entente decides not to risk its African holdings if it declares war on the Central powers. In Greece, the King decides to dump his pro-Entente PM for a more neutral cabinet and plans to oust the Anglo-French troops at Salonika and Lemnos.
Neutral nations who were Pro-Central Powers begin to edge closer again. Sweden’s Gendarmes public actions and demands from Russia that Sweden give control of its Persian Gendarmes to Russia. The Russians want to use the Gendarmes for the Persian Cordon, which keeps Germans out of Central Asia.
The Swedes are none too happy about the Russian demands. Over the last several years, they have had a series of spy scandals involving Russia, and more demands may just push them into the arms of Germany. Instead of staying neutral or declaring war, Sweden takes a pro-German stance, shipping key iron ore and food into Germany, avoiding the British blockade. The Germans use the ore to make more artillery, more munitions, and more ships.
3-5 December, Greece
Exactly two months after landing in Salonika and Lemnos, French and British troops withdraw, after much diplomatic wrangling, over the protests of Surrail and Milne, who wish to maintain pressure on the Ottoman Empire. To that end, the foreign office plans a series of amphibious assaults on Cyprus and Nicosia using Kitchner armies. This plan is delayed until the success of Haig's attack on German lines on the Western front.
20 December, Verdun, 1915
BEF troops massed in and around the trenches at Verdun for the past four weeks finally assault the German lines. After a brief aerial bombardment meant to cut German wire, the troops execute Haig's plan is followed to the letter, which is much to their disadvantage. They march in formation across no man's land and into the sites of the German guns.
In their densely packed formations, the British offer the Germans a flawless target. Machine-gunners, artillerymen, and soldiers alike are able to fire with impunity and hit British troops. The bombardment meant to cut German wire has failed, leaving the Germans safe, secure and entrenched. At the end of the day, 70,000 British troops died trying to cross into the German lines.
The next five days see British attack being beaten back in the face of German guns. The dead, 140,000, will fill more space than the ground that was captured. The British and ANZAC troops in the area are decimated by the lose of so many troops. The French army will have to hold the lines in the face of any German attack. This slaughter is the beginning of the ten month Battle for Verdun.
Fortunately, the British discontinue attacks on Christmas Day, and a few local truces break out, allowing troops to trade tobacco, food, and almost anything they want with the opposing troops. Two veterans of the Verdun campaign, a Frenchmen named de Gaulle and a German named Hitler, complained that the truces were cowardly in their war memoirs. In general, however, that feeling is rare among enlisted men.
25-31 December, London
Because of the slaughter at Verdun and the destabilization of Africa, the Asquith government is now in serious danger. Asquith himself is in shambles, after his young son dies leading an assault on German lines. Asquith is furious at Haig, and he wants to fire him for the failure of his tactics.
Haig defends the defeat by saying that various tactics need to be altered to make considerations for the weather and for German dastardliness. Tactics are adjusted accordingly, and British mass assaults continue.
Kitchner's skills as Secretary of State of War are brought into question. Though he has been able to raise great armies, he had failed with the Boers. The peace agreement that he gave them caused the current rebellion, or at least that is what the Telegram is saying. Further, his great armies, based in ANZAC troops, cannot make it to England while the Ethiopian Navy controls the Horn of Africa. So his promised armies are unable to fill the ranks of the dead caused by Haig's attack from Verdun. New classes of conscription come into effect in Canada and England to fill the empty ranks while ANZAC troops are shipped around the Cape of Good Hope, which takes a month, crucial time in a war such as this.
So major parts of the British government are questioned and destabilized. Churchill, still out in the cold after the Dardanelles fiasco, makes contact with the Tories to see if they will form a coalition government in the event that Asquith's government should fall.
Asquith hears of these goings on and presents Churchill with a fiat acompli. He calls a general election. Churchill continues to maneuver behind the scenes, but now has six weeks before the government can change. Kitchner, Asquith, and Grey will look to be totally discarded. The Conservatives are poised to gain a majority in Parliament and thus the Prime Ministership.
Fortunately, this upheaval does not spread to the Army or, where Haig is seen to keep his post after the election, though he has earned the unfortunate moniker "Butcher of Verdun." Fischer, however, is in somewhat more doubt, as the Conservatives may reward Churchill with the Admiralty, again.
January, Ethiopia, Algeria, and South Africa
Since late November, all has been relatively calm. Menelik is fortifying his gains on the Horn, while bringing pressure to bear on French Djibouti, which is slowly starving to death, from the Ethiopian blockade. To make up for the lack of European weapons, Menelik sells coffee to America in exchange for weapons, boats, and training, which pour in slowly through the Mediterranean or from the Cape of Good Hope.
In Liberia and Sierra Leone, little gains have been made, and it has degenerated to positional warfare between the British Frontier Force and the Liberian Frontier Force. The former is stronger in equipment and training, but weaker in support and numbers. The Liberian government broadcasts messages to the black populace of Sierra Leone that it should "take up arms with your brethren and truly free yourselves from slavery." In the occupied south, this works well, and many educated conscripts join up with the Liberian Army, giving clout to the message of freedom. British and French forces in Ghana and Cote d'Ivore hold back, as they have their hands full with the Germans in Gibbon and the rebellion in Algeria.
In Algeria, the revolution has defeated French governmental forces, gaining control of the countryside while losing control of the cities. Though they do not control the cities, they have the sympathy of the city dwellers against the French, who have cracked down so universally that they have alienated the entire population of Algeria. The only chance the French would have to regain control would be to send in troops. But, the French are so tied up reinforcing the English line in Verdun and holding their own in Champagne that no additional troops will be seen in the area for some time, but for whatever the French Foreign Legion has scraped up, which isn't adequate. Morocco and Tunisia, watching from the sidelines, join in the revolt, leaving the French strapped. The French and Italian navies shell every coastal city into rubble, turning the loyalists into rebels out of anger. Because the French cannot send their own troops, they ask the Italians to send some to Libya to put down the rebellion in Tunisia. In exchange for this, the Italians ask for a French guarantee on Italian control of Yugoslavia, Namibia, and Gibbon as well as whatever gains they make in territory adjacent to Libya.
The French readily give this, and the Italians ship troops off to Libya to attack into Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. Among the troops sent are young socialist Benito Mussolini and Count Ciano. From the British comes the donation of DH Lawrence from Cairo GHQ, who will try to counter Wassmuss and befriend the Berber tribesmen.
South Africa, January
Here, also, there has been stabilization and no expansion. The Boers have been able to resurrect their autonomous republics, the Zulus their one kingdom with a descendent of Cetshwayo. The coastal cities of East London and Durban are the redoubts of British power in South Africa, much as they were before the Boer War. Some hope for greater unity between the rebel groups, the Zulu and the Hottentots most notably. The Boers refuse to have anything to do with the 'apes.'
British soldiers have been able to regain some control of the areas where the Bushmen and Hottentots were in rebellion. The control is illusory.
Without troops to reinforce them, and with the situation in the rest of the world, the British, French, Portuguese, German, and Italian imperiums face growing nationalism across the board. It varies colony to colony, on a basis of the quality of local government. Nationalism is weakest in Namibia, Rhodesia, Tanzania, and Egypt. Each of these areas loyalty stems from something different. In Namibia and Tanzania, fair government has managed to negate most of the grievances. Rhodesia and Egypt are different cases. Rhodesia has been repopulated by whites, and does not want to leave the fold of the British Empire. Egypt's decrepit monarchy and imperuim into Sudan are basically British, so when British support ends, so does the Egyptian Empire.
Hotbeds of nationalism exist in British South Africa, French North Africa, and the Congo. Two of those localities are already in rebellion against England or France, due to the inconsiderate actions of the leaders of those nations. The Congo has been kept quiet only by virtue of it's white population; they are keeping the blacks quiet at gunpoint, though rebellion will eventually seep through into this system, as it has suffered the worst of all nations, at the hands of Leopold and his ilk. Most other nations are neutral in their nationalist feelings, though this stance cannot last for long.
January 1916
The New Year has started out poorly for the Entente, and it looks as if it will continue that way. The British failure at Verdun makes the Entente feel weak, helpless. There are no victories on the eastern or western fronts. Italy, engaged almost a year ago, has made no additions to the war; their African Expedition is meeting as much success as previous one of 1896. They grind and grind against Berbers and Wassmuss, but to no avail. Desert warfare is harder on the Italian troops than the fights on the Izono have been. The lines move little or not at all in most of Tunisia.
On the Western Front, Joffre and Haig fight and argue over strategy. Joffre refuses to co-ordinate with Haig, and Haig demands control of the French soldiers. This leads to a drift within the alliance. France and Italy both begin to feel as if England is dragging its feet on its part in the war, and respond accordingly.
A secret Treaty of Rapollo is concluded. The French agree to give Italy Corsica, and the entire Adriatic coastline down to Greece in exchange for control over the Sudan and the Lower Nile area. The Italians and the French also split the area given to Britain by the Tripartite Agreement of 1907.
While France and Italy plot in one corner, England plots in another. With Russia, England agrees to carve up German China like a Christmas goose. The Russians have their sites on Manchuria and Tsingtsao while the British want Ningpo from Italy. Both agree to back the others' claim in the future. Though some British are reluctant to give Russia a warm-water port for the future, it seems a good idea at the height of some economic troubles in Russia, which is the first Entente system to show severe signs of strain.
Meanwhile, Germany has gone looking for more allies. In the months while the Entente saw the start of a drift, the Germans courted minor powers to join the fight in her favor. Though she has tried many countries, some as far away as Mexico, only one has responded positively. Bulgaria, long a victim of the Balkan Wars, takes up arms against Russia, Greece, and France to try and grab some land.
The Germans are not doing this so that they may ad insult to injury to the Allies, the Germans need more troops. It is the only member of the Central Powers that is carrying its weight on the Continent. Germany plans and acts out defensives and offensives on all fronts. They are used as a stiffener in an increasingly dysfunctional Austrian Army. The Germans are not only the anchor of the Central Alliance; they are its only functioning member on the European continent. Despite the success of their allies in Africa, the Central Powers are likewise suffering war fatigue. The Austrian member seems to be the weakest link. The ailing Franz Josef seems unable to keep the dual monarchy from pulling itself apart, as various nationalities begin to vie for more power and more refuse to fight. The Hungarian half seems to have second thoughts and decides to send out some low-key peace feelers. This really irks Franz Jozef, and stresses him out as he tries to calm various Germans down about the rumors from their spies that Austria-Hungary wants out of the war.
Unfortunately, they do not believe him. Reports of Hungary’s wishes to leave the war reach the Kaiser. Wilhelm II is really angry about this, and makes a personal, unannounced, visit to Vienna in February. Once there, the Kaiser spends his time chewing out Franz Jozef. This added to the stress of the past month breaks Franz Jozef. Shortly after the Kaiser leaves on the 12th, Franz Jozef takes to his bed. His grief, his stress, and his age do him in. Shortly after the English Parliamentary elections on the 20th, Franz Jozef dies.
He is replaced by his nephew, Charles, who is created Emperor-King Karl I on the twenty-fifth. He is even more worried about peace than his father, and wants a general peace. He needs it so Austria-Hungary will survive. To that end, he begins sending agents to Geneva to meet with the British to try and work out a "just, honorable, and lasting peace between all nations.” The Austro-Hungarian representative of this mission is Albert von Mensdorff-Pouilly, a major Austrian land magnate. His counterpart is the Belgian Count Sixte of Bourbon-Parma, a major in the Belgian army. They meet for two weeks without success, because only Mensdorff has the official capacity to offer specific agreements on peace.
The conference reconvenes to Berne, where Enver Djemal and the Bulgarian Crown Prince join talks. The French chose Georges Clemenceau and King Albert of Belgium nominally endows Count Sixte with the ability to legally negotiate for them. The Russians and the British are more suspect of the situation. The new British government under Balfour use General Allenby as their representative. After his defeat at Canal du Nord, he has been relegated to lower and lower rank, though not out-and-out fired. The Russians use their Consul, and demand that the Swiss to imprison Vladimir Illyich Lenin for his part in the 1887 Bomb Plot to kill the Tsar.
Georges Clemenceau is a fiery French nationalist, but he is also a realist. He knows that France cannot continue the war without control of its African colonies. He knows that the various North African nationals holding the line on the Western Front will rebel soon. Britain likewise wants to give up the fight, so that they will retain the South African diamond mines. In this case, all of the nationalist cases championed in France and England fall by the wayside. Arabs, Zionists, Czecho-Slovaks, Ruethenes, Yugoslavs, and Poles all find their causes without support. Some send representatives anyway, but they are ignored. Thus, those groups conclude a “Congress of Oppressed Peoples” in Amsterdam, a meeting predominated by Europeans. Prince Feisal, a Howaitat prince, leads a conference of Arabs in Damascus.
The remaining representatives draw up guidelines for peace; France, England, and Belgium will cease hostilities with Austria-Hungary if Austria-Hungary will become neutral and disallow any German transport through their territory. The Austrians can keep all the gains that they have made against Russia, but their navy must be reduced to one half its present size, and they must agree to maintain the integrity of a free Serbia and all other Slavic nations. The new Serbia is much reduced from the previous one, including everything south of the Danube and north of Nis. It will be an Austro-Hungarian protectorate, with Austria-Hungary in charge of everything but domestic affairs. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Albania, and Montenegro are absorbed into Austria-Hungary.
For the Ottomans, Britain and France agree to withdraw from Salonika, Palestine, and Arabia. Nominal Ottoman control will be restored to Arabia and Palestine, but real power lies with Britain, as it does in Egypt. Armenia must be given over to Russia, and all Armenians within the Ottoman Empire will have one month to remove themselves from their residences and move into Russian Armenia. King Constantine is returned to the throne of Greece, after the French forcibly deposed him in the winter of 1916.
Bulgaria is able to make peace with Britain, France, and Russia without giving up anything, it even gains Macedonia from Greece. However, it cannot make peace with Greece. Both want Thrace, and only one of them will get it. These two will continue a struggle in a new Balkan War. As a final part of the agreement, both nations must either agree to war guilt, or show that they are moving towards constitutional monarchies. Emperor-King Karl accepts this, as he was planning for it anyway. The Ottomans show more reservation, but agree, though they will take slower steps to modernizing their government. The Sultan-Caliph dismisses Enver Pasha, and Enver Kemal is decorated for his defense of the Dardanelles and the Sea of Marmara. The Bulgarians readily agree, because they just want out of the war.
France and Russia are angry because the secret Treaty of London was not honored by England, though it managed to get Palestine and Arabia for itself. Clemenceau concedes this point, because he knows that he cannot ask for more from the British, because he must put down the revolt in Africa as soon as possible, not acquire more territory, which would require troops to administer it. The Clemenceau passes a copy of the Sykes-Picot Agreement to the American Press, and the Russian diplomat follow suit, giving a copy of the Treaty of London. The Berne Treaty is signed on January 31, 1916.
Though the Austrians cannot continue the fight, they give weapons and "volunteers" to the Bulgarians, while the French quietly let Frechet d'Espery and some of Le Armee de Orient stay behind to help the Greeks. Though these troops would be appreciated in France, the French want to come out of the war with Greece as their own economic satrapy, no matter how Britain wants it.
Germany fights on, alone in Europe, proud, and unbowed. England and France are desperately looking for a way out, so that they may turn on Africa, with France becoming more desperate by the hour, because they cannot accept peace without Alsace-Lorraine. The French but not be able to demand it in their current condition, nor will they be able to continue the fight against Germany alone, so when England goes to the peace table, so must France. The French and British decide to launch one last offensive, hoping to gain the most land possible. They begin a build up of troops behind the lines at Vosges, hoping to catch the Germans by surprise. The Germans are able to notice this build up, and reinforce their troops there with troops freshly returned from Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. The preparations for the joint offensive make slow going because Sir John French is not able to cooperate will with Joffre. The most optimistic Entente planners see that an offensive will not be likely until the 20th.
Meanwhile, they are massing their reserves behind the Somme, and will be ready to launch an offensive by the eleventh. It is Falkhayn’s master plan, hopefully forcing the French and British to use all of their reserves at Verdun, thus bleeding the French and British armies of their manpower.
The Germans, the French, and the British are now heading for a major confrontation in this war, one that could end it. French and British African colonies are engulfed in the flames of a revolution while Menelik’s Ethiopia stands against the Entente alone. No European in Africa is entirely safe. The future is very much in doubt, as the European armies prepare to meet on the field of battle one more time.
February, 1916
As the European powers draw up more and more troops, Menelik decides to strike first. The port of Djibouti is a thorn in his side and a black mark on his honor. The French have left little to guard it, for the moment. Germany is at war with France, and with a little nudging convinces Menelik that it is part of his Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation to attack the French. Before Menelik serves the French a declaration of war, he attacks into Djibouti, with his captured ships shelling the main port, and Krupp railguns moving in. Within three days of the attack, the French are ejected from the Horn of Africa. All French citizens and any natives shown to have aided the French Foreign Legion are put to death.
Ethiopia's Navy guards its shores, and its armies sit on the borders waiting for the coming attack. The Liberians also take advantage of the growing European weakness by attacking Freetown, the capitol of Sierra Leone. The African population offers support to the Liberians, who they see as "liberating brothers", while the white population makes itself scarce. The Liberian troops even raise a few volunteer legions, for the final attack against British forces, to take place at the end of the month. In Europe, the confrontation moves ever closer.