Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire

[Pellegrino]

PART FOURTEEN: THE ROAD TO ALAT

PART FOURTEEN: THE ROAD TO ALAT

The Road to Alat: The War in Azerbaijan
Graphic Novel
By Joe Stefano
(2000)
Fantagraphics Books

My name is Vanes Hovhannissyan.
I am Armenian.
My family is from Baku.
We fled during Black January, the previous year.
And now, here I am, back in the city of my birth.
Liberating my country.
Avenging my people.
And I am ashamed.
The Russians are bombing the city.
The Armenians brought over the heavy artillery. We are raining fire down on them.
And nobody can get out.
Unless they pass through us first.
We control the road to Alat, and the Russians are letting us do whatever we want.
I am pulling men out of the line of refugees.
We are shooting them.
I am sure this is what the Turks did to our people over seventy-five years ago.
I am sure that this is what genocide looks like.
And someday when my grandchildren ask me about genocide I will hide from them, and tell them nothing of the Young Turks.
Because I don’t want them to know.
That I am the Young Turks.
That the word genocide was stolen from us.
And our people.
And our history.
Not by a politician in Ankara.
But by me, on that cold night in October.
On the road to Alat.



Report Finds Pilot at Fault in Fatal Crash of Aeroflot 335

Time Magazine

By William Smith Jr.
Published: March 22, 2002


WASHINGTON — Aeroflot flight 335 crashed at sea four years ago because of a ''manipulation of the airplane controls'' by the pilot, the National Transportation Safety Board concluded in a report released today. The finding ruled out mechanical problems, evasive action to avoid another airplane, terrorism or any other cause. The report did not address the question of why the pilot acted as he did, nor did it use the word suicide.


The crash, of an Ilyushin Il-96-300 en route to Moscow from Bogota on Oct. 31, 1997, killed the other 3 cockpit crew members, 6 flight attendants and 101 passengers, along with the pilot, Colonel Yuri Kusenko.


Another Aeroflot pilot told the Federal Bureau of Investigation months after the crash that Colonel Kusenko had been despondent and “appeared to be deeply troubled” in the days leading up to the crash.


“He always would become depressed in the month of October,” the pilot said, “but this month it was particularly upsetting.”


The report, which does not mention the pilot's contention, said ''the reasons for the first officer's actions are unknown.''


The Russian Civil Aviation Authority, in a statement distributed by the public relations agency it hired after the crash, said the American investigators (who had been asked to lead the investigation by the Colombian government) had ''failed to fully investigate a credible body of evidence supporting the theory that the crash was the result of a suicide mission perpetrated by an Islamic terrorist organization based in Pakistan.'' It said further investigation was necessary, and that the UIS government would appeal the decision.


When American investigators began discussing the possibility that suicide was the cause of the crash, UIS objected that there was no evidence that the Colonel was in any way suicidal. Colonel Kusenko, it was noted, was a decorated military pilot who was awarded the country’s first “Medal of Nesterov Award” commemorating his performance in the conflict in the breakaway republic of Azerbaijan in 1991. He also was widely regarded as a national hero, and the allegations of suicide are highly controversial in the UIS.


“Colonel Kusenko was a great patriot who was loved by his wife, his children and his countrymen,” a spokesperson for the UIS said in a press conference this morning, “why would a man who has so much in his life commit such a terrible act. It simply doesn’t make any sense.”


The safety board based its conclusions on the evidence recorded by the flight data recorder, which showed that the autopilot was turned off when the plane went into a wings-level dive. Also, there was evidence in the form of statement made by Kusenko in Ukrainian and recorded by the cockpit voice recorder, which captured the officer repeating the phrase, “I’m sorry.” Moments before impact the cockpit voice recorder captured the Kusenko mumble “Baku.” UIS investigators said that the evidence proves that Kusenko was disabled by passenger Elman Farajov, an ethnic Azerbaijani who the UIS claims then crashed the plane into the Atlantic Ocean as an act of terrorism.


“Why would Colonel Kusenko commit suicide on the anniversary of one of his proudest achievements?” the spokesperson asked, “The capitulation of the Azerbaijani rebel movement was a proud day for all Russians and Ukrainians, and Colonel Kusenko was no exception. But clearly October 31st had a much different meaning to Farajov, a known terrorist sympathizer and Azeri nationalist.”


Critics note that Farajov, although fluent in Russian, was apparently not fluent in Ukrainian. Russian investigators countered that the similarities between the Russian and Ukrainian languages were close enough that a well trained terrorist could “learn a few key phrases in Ukrainian” in just a few days.



Major condemns bombing of Baku, calling it “disproportionate”


The Scotsman
October 29, 1991



The United Kingdom on Thursday criticized the UDR's military operations in Azerbaijan as "deeply troubling” and a “continuation of human rights violations" and urged a political solution to the conflict.

"The latest information on UDR operations in Azerbaijan indicates a continuation of deeply troubling human rights violations and the use of disproportionate force against civilian targets," spokesman Richard Campbell told reporters.

He said the lack of a political solution and the large number of credible reports of massive human rights violations are contributing to an environment that is favorable towards the emergence of terrorism.

The United Kingdom "would continue to urge both sides to seek a political solution to the conflict and urge accountability for human rights violations," he added.

Many Britons are calling on Conservative Prime Minister John Major to condemn the bombings of Baku and to refer to it as “genocide”. Labour Party leader Tony Blair has condemned the refusal of Major to call the bombing campaign genocide and has demanded that the British government sever ties with the new UDR government.

“Although the UDR has promised a commitment to real democratic reform, the unrelenting carpet bombing of the city of Baku, and the tens of thousands of casualties in the last 48-hours, show that this new Soviet Union is really no different than the one that preceded it. We cannot ignore our moral duty to condemn genocide just because those who perpetrate it profess a commitment to democracy.”



“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”



(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies)

By John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)



CHAPTER TEN

The declaration of independence from the new President Abulfaz Elchibey reportedly put Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky into an uproar, and by most accounts he overruled the wishes of UDR President Viktor Alksnis and ordered indiscriminate air strikes. With Baku completely encircled, few residents of the city had been able to flee before the bombing began, and those that remained struggled to escape the city over the 93-hour bombing campaign. As soon as bombings began what little resistance that remained in the western portion of the Republic collapsed as Armenian troops crossed the Kura River and soon joined their Russian allies on the outskirts of Baku. Bringing with them heavy artillery from Yerevan the Armenians followed the lead of the Russians and indiscriminately bombarded the city with 152-mm 2A36 Giatsint-B guns.

Initially many residents of Baku tried to flee on the train going north to Sumqayit, which although surrounded by UDR troops remained relatively unmolested. However, federal troops prohibited the train from passing through, leaving the road to Alat in the south as the only escape route. Once again, federal troops initially closed the road under orders of General Gennady Troshev. However, he was overruled by Russian Secretary of State Gennady Burbulis, who threatened to have Troshev arrested for war crimes the next time he set foot in Russia if he didn’t ease the humanitarian crisis that had developed in Baku. Troshev reluctantly relented, but almost immediately after opening the road to Alat, Armenian troops arrived and began a campaign of indiscriminate killing.

“Armenian troops began separating men between the ages of 14 and 60,” one witness recounted, “and then they would shoot them on the side of the road.”

Federal forces refused to intervene, and in the 93-hour campaign it was estimated that over 20,000 men were executed by Armenian troops before the road to Alat was again closed by General Troshev.

Residents in Baku attempt to escape the bombing (AP)

Armenian troops reach the outskirts of Baku (AP)

Armenian troops block the Road to Alat.

“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”


Published by Interbook, © 1998



CHAPTER TWENTY

Zhirinovsky was furious when I told him that I reopened the road to Alat to allow refugees to escape the bombing. He seemed determined to use the entire conflict as a testing ground for future conflicts in Central Asia, and he actually seemed pleased with the destruction he was causing. But it was nothing short of murder. The only defense the Azerbaijanis had to the air strikes were located at the Nasosnaya Air Base, which we controlled. And although control of the Tbilisi Air Defense Army was somewhat contested between the Federal government and the Georgian Republic, the Georgians were not going to come to the aid of Azerbaijan. Not with 20,000 Russian and federal troops fortifying in Sokhumi and Tskhinvali. The Tbilisi Air Defense Army was the air defense system of the Transcaucasus and North Caucasus regions in the Soviet Union, and it initially was major force designed to protect Baku from NATO air strikes. Now it was sitting still in fear as the Tupolevs leveled Baku. Zhirinovsky was especially pleased with the Tu-160’s, which were proving to be a most effective weapon against a powerless and exposed civilian population.

“Soon we will crush the Azerbaijani’s,” Zhirinovsky told us with a chuckle, “and I guarantee once the Uzbeks and Chechens, and Turkmens see what happens to the Azerbaijanis, they will think twice about opposing us.”

I slumped in my chair, not sure what to make of the statement. I feared that the bombing of Baku would have the opposite effect. Already in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, federal troops were coming under attack from local militias, and in the west politicians in the United Kingdom and France were calling for sanctions! Much of Europe was recognizing the independence of the Baltic Republics, and Poland and Hungary were requesting an emergency meeting with German and British politicians to discuss admission into NATO! I felt defeated when I saw Vice President Zavidiya run into the room clearly ecstatic.

“Mr. President,” Zavidiya said, “your Azerbaijani counterpart, president Abulfaz Elchibey is on the phone. He wants to discuss a truce.”

“Hang up,” Zhirinovsky spat out, “the only terms I’m interested in is unconditional surrender, but only after he personally rejects Azerbaijani independence on national television.”

“Mr. President,” Zavidiya said with a smile, “he’s already agreed to both.”

 

[Orville_third]

Given that Bin Laden had made statements before Bush was in office, I don't think Moore would have said that. (Of course, Moore might have said that after Clinton made strikes on Bin Laden too- Moore wasn't a fan of Clinton.)
Have South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared independence from the old USSR or Georgia? (Perhaps, if they like the UDR, they may become members...especially if Georgia gets invaded...)

 

[Kriegdämmerung]

Oh. My. God. You brilliantly evil bastard!

This is a marvelous (and terrifying) twist on the Nagorno-Karabakh War. And I'm sure that Zhirinovsky will deem the Caucasian peoples as "Turks" to be annihilated in short order.

Along those lines, how's Central Asia handling right now? IOTL, we had riots in Osh, the Dushanbe riots against Armenian refugees, and of course some spillover from the Afghan Civil War.

 

[Pellegrino]

Given that Bin Laden had made statements before Bush was in office, I don't think Moore would have said that. (Of course, Moore might have said that after Clinton made strikes on Bin Laden too- Moore wasn't a fan of Clinton.)



Have South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared independence from the old USSR or Georgia? (Perhaps, if they like the UDR, they may become members...especially if Georgia gets invaded...)

It's hard to say, and to be honest I was torn between Moore and Charlie Sheen as to who would have said it, but the thing is Moore did make some rather strong accusations against Bush in his film Fahrenheit 911, so I think it is possible he would also say this.


As for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, they (like much of the former Soviet Union) were watching carefully as to how Russia and the UDR would act in Azerbaijan before they declared independence. What we see now is a situation where countries that agree, like Armenia, to limited quasi-independence are rewarded, whereas those who try and break away totally are punished. The question on Abkhazia and South Ossetia might just come down to 'will Georgia try and break away?' If so, the UDR might 'punish' Georgia by breaking up the country, much like what they are doing in Azerbaijan. Or if Georgia pulls an Armenia and agrees to a partnership with Russia, the UDR might let Georgia have a free hand in the breakaway provinces. Time will tell, but I assure you that Georgia is on Zhirinovsky's mind, and we will be seeing some answers soon.

 

[Pellegrino]

Oh. My. God. You brilliantly evil bastard!

This is a marvelous (and terrifying) twist on the Nagorno-Karabakh War. And I'm sure that Zhirinovsky will deem the Caucasian peoples as "Turks" to be annihilated in short order.

Along those lines, how's Central Asia handling right now? IOTL, we had riots in Osh, the Dushanbe riots against Armenian refugees, and of course some spillover from the Afghan Civil War.

We will be seeing Central Asia become the next hotspot in the coming posts, but I must admit, it is tough to juggle the multiple angles emerging. In October of 1991 in OTL Croatia is independent and Bosnia is about five months from civil war. I am trying to work in the Yugoslavian angle here in the next few post as well, without become too conveluted. Plus I need to adress Zhirinovsky's plans for the Baltic Republics. But I can assure you, something big is about to go down in Central Asia...

 

[Pellegrino]

PART FIFTEEN: AN INTERNAL MATTER

One name we will be hearing more from in the coming post is that of General Troshev...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gennady_Troshev

Suicide bombing kills five near security checkpoint in Astara

By Mary Josipovic
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, May 13, 2003; 2:28 PM



ASTARA, UIS -- A suicide bombing on Tuesday killed five people near a security checkpoint in this volatile city that has borne the brunt of Azerbaijan’s rising Islamist insurgency, police and government officials said.


It was the latest in a deadly string of attacks in Astara, a small city in the UIS Republic of Azerbaijan bordering Iran. Since the fall of UIS President Vladimir Zhirinovsky last year, violence across the Azerbaijani republic has increased, with insurgency groups demanding the removal of all federal troops and a restoration of pre-1991 borders. Authorities said they were not sure of the target of Thursday's blast, which killed four police officers of the National Anti Terrorism Unit of the UIS Federal Police Force (ATU-FPF) as well as a civilian. However, most recent attacks have targeted security forces in apparent retaliation for the military operations conducted by the federal government since 1991.


Security has increased at the border crossing with Iran, but extremists have responded by switching tactics, said Pasha Gadjiyev, a police official. Instead of using car bombs as had been common since 1991, insurgents are now deploying lone suicide bombers on foot. Gadjiyev has said that the move has reduced casualties, but not the fear that has gripped many residents of the city.


The bomber detonated his explosives in a busy area near a military checkpoint in front of the office of the ATU-FPF, authorities said. The attack, which came two days after a blast killed thirteen off duty ATU-FPF police officers at a restaurant, injured 25 and prompted panicked residents to close shops and remain indoors.


"The bomb blasts are aimed at frightening the average soldier and also the local policeman who is seen as a traitor," said a local who works near the bomb site. "And it is working. The police are afraid to come out on the streets and the Russians are frustrated that they are still in the country and abandoning their posts in record numbers.”


The lack of police presence has resulted in a spike in violence, and Astara has surpassed Baku as the most dangerous city in the former Soviet Union. The porous nature of the border just south of the city has also prompted President Lebed to criticize Iran, a country that has maintained relatively good relations with the UIS. UIS President Alexander Lebed has indicated a desire to see the Republic of Azerbaijan severed from the Union, a proposition that has electrified the more conservative elements of the Liberal Democratic Party.

UIS prepares to kick Azerbaijan out of Union, President Bush expresses concern over potential “terrorist haven”

Much of Baku remains damaged since 1991 (WP)

By Mary Josipovic
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 31, 2004; 5:28 PM

MOSCOW, UIS -- Thirteen years after the capitulation of the short lived independent Republic of Azerbaijan, UIS President Alexander Lebed has announced plans to have the Azerbaijani Republic forcibly expelled from the UIS, citing the economic burden associated with what many Azerbaijanis refer to as “the occupation.”


“We are wasting time and resources trying to reintegrate Azerbaijan into the UIS,” Lebed told Russian television last month, “how much money and how many troops do we need to send into the Somalia of the Caucasus before we accept the fact that this Republic has no interest in trying to find workable solutions?”


However, the move has electrified hard-liners in the Liberal Democratic Party, as well as liberals, who call the move a “kick in the face” to democracy in the Republic.


“We have already given up Tajikistan,” commented Eduard Limonov, a controversial UIS parliamentary representative from the Kazak Republic, “what of the blood our Russian brothers shed to keep our country together in 1991? Are we to surrender pieces of our country because they happen to be overrun with rats? No! We exterminate the rats!”


However, many liberals in the UIS question the offer and note the opposition inside of Azerbaijan to the terms. Most Azerbaijanis reject the olive branch offered by Lebed, claiming that it is an attempt to disenfranchise the Azerbaijani people and dispose of the growing refugee problem in the UIS. Lebed has proposed that all oil revenues from an independent Azerbaijan for the next 100 years be turned over to the UIS to cover the cost of “liberating” the country from terrorists. The move is widely reviled on the streets of Azerbaijan, but thus far Azerbaijani President Suleyman Akbarov has indicated he would accept the “general terms of the agreement” although he expressed concern over the 100 year time frame. Critics have accused Akbarov of profiting off the agreement, citing an unsubstantiated rumor that the UIS has agreed to pay Akbarov over one hundred million USD for his signature on the “Liberation Clause.”


Critics have also expressed concern over the status of the refugees currently living in Azerbaijan. Over 100,000 refuges from the former Chechen republic are currently living in refugee camps across Azerbaijan, and many feel that a unilateral declaration of independence from the UIS would give Lebed the opportunity to claim that those refugees are no longer citizens of Russia and are no longer eligible to return home.


Azerbaijanis also expressed outrage at President Lebed’s comment that there would be no territorial changes if Azerbaijan was expelled from the Union. To the west, the Union of Armenia Y Artsakh entails nearly 40% of what used to be the Azerbaijani SSR before 1991. Over one million Azerbaijanis were driven from their homes in the western provinces of the republic in October of 1991 when Russian and Armenian forces conducted what was then referred to as a “police action” in a move to restore order.

Bush criticized over statement


President Bush was criticized today over his comments that an “independent Azerbaijan could become a safe haven of terrorist” and that the international community should withhold recognition of independence if they are in fact expelled from the UIS.


“We have to worry that this place, which already is a safe haven for groups like Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, could become ever more dangerous without the presence of Russian troops,” Bush said in a press conference. “I think the UN needs to hold Russia’s feet to the fire and make them fix this problem before they dump it on the international community.”


The statement was widely ridiculed in Washington, with Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry calling the statement “more proof of the absolute cluelessness of the current administration.” Democratic congresswoman Nancy Pelosi openly ridiculed the statement on the house floor, saying that the time to hold “Russia’s feet to the fire was in Crawford, Texas,” a reference to the Crawford Accord President Bush signed with then UIS President Vladimir Zhirinovsky in October of 2001.


Republican Presidential candidate John Engler, who defeated Bush in the Republican Party primary earlier this year, took time from campaigning in Florida and expressed “deep concern over the president’s statements” and asked the President to “stop giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt.”


President Bush’s approval ratings hit an all time low of 18% last week. However, Engler has successfully distanced himself from the current president and still maintains a slight lead over Kerry in the most recent Gallup poll.

UDR “peacekeepers” enter Baku as Azerbaijan formally abandons independence
The Scotsman
November 1, 1991

UDR Troops enter the nearly destroyed city of Baku

(MOSCOW) Federal troops of the former Soviet Union entered the capital city of the breakaway republic of Azerbaijan today as Azerbaijani President Abulfaz Elchibey signed an unconditional surrender to “spare my country from further suffering.”

Across the Russian Republic supporters of President Vladimir Zhirinovsky took to the streets in celebration, while the Russian Parliament declared October 31 a national holiday.

“This is a tremendous victory for Russian democracy,” commented one lawmaker, “and we will always remember the sacrifice of our patriotic soldiers on this day, on Democracy Day.”

Russian General Gennady Troshev was named acting head of the Republic of Azerbaijan, although President Elchibey has not formally been removed from office at this time. However, many Azerbaijanis feel betrayed by President Elchibey, who took power just four days ago in a coup. His declaration of independence led to massive bombings from the UDR military, something that angered many Azerbaijanis.

“He knew we had no weapons, no guns,” commented a refugee who fled Baku, “and he knew Zhirinovsky was a madman. Why would he have provoked that madman when the Russian military had us surrounded?”

However, many Azerbaijanis feel that the Elchibey was abandoned by the West, and hold more animosity towards NATO and the European Community.

“When he took power, he assumed that the Americans would not treat us any differently than the Lithuanians,” another refugee said in Alat. “But he forgot one thing: we are Muslims.”

President Bush came under heavy criticism for calling the conflict “an internal matter” despite numerous reports of massive human rights violations. Opposition leaders in the United Kingdom and France have openly called the actions of the Armenian militias in western Azerbaijan “ethnic cleansing” and their actions on the only road leading out of Baku to the southern city of Alat “genocide.” However, President Bush was reluctant to embrace either conclusion, although he did call on his UDR counterpart to ensure “that the federal government uses appropriate restraint in the future.”


CNN interview with James Baker, former Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush

July 13, 1997


CNN: In your opinion, what was the biggest mistake of the Bush Presidency?

Baker: I don’t like to put it in terms of mistakes, we were faced with many tough choices, sometimes we chose the lesser of two evils, and sometimes we just flat out chose wrong.

CNN: What decision do you personally regret?

Baker: One stands out: letting President Bush call the bombing of Baku “an internal matter”. We were absolutely appalled at what was happening in Azerbaijan, but it was all so confusing in those early days. We had breakaway republics all over the former Soviet Union, and it was hard to know who was in control of what. I guess we gave President Alksnis and President Zhirinovsky too much credit, we assumed they lost control of the Armenians and that General Troshev was acting independent of Moscow. We made a mistake and the Azerbaijanis paid a dear price for that mistake.

CNN: Do you think that mistake cost President Bush the election?

Baker (long pause): It’s hard to say. It certainly didn’t help. Governor Kerrey was able to capitalize on our early mistakes in dealing with the UDR during the election, to make us look soft on what by mid-1992 we could all see was a serious threat to stability. But people tended to forget that he was on board with rapprochement with the UDR early on as well. All Americans were. We wanted to see democracy take hold in the former Soviet Union.


Armenians ordered to withdraw from Baku

Toronto Globe and Mail
Published: November 08, 1991

Armenian troops withdraw from Azerbaijan

(YEREVAN, ARMENIA) – Armenian troops outside of Baku were given 24-hours to pull out of the Republic of Azerbaijan and return to their own respective Republic by UDR President Viktor Alksnis today. The move was aimed at curbing the growing ethnic tensions in the southern UDR republic, however, many Azerbaijanis expressed shock over the UDR’s declaration that the former oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh would be allowed to leave Azerbaijan and to form a union with the Armenian Republic.

“Many of the borders in the region do not truly represent the wishes of the people who live there,” President Alksnis said in a statement on Russian TV, “we have Stalin to thank for that.”

Lawmakers in the United States expressed deep reservations about the move, with Arizona Senator John McCain calling it “a dangerous precedent” in the U.S. Senate yesterday.

“We are already seeing massive human rights violations being committed in those regions which are now being given to Armenia,” McCain said, “and who’s to say that this formula won’t be used in Yugoslavia or Czechoslovakia with similar disastrous results.”

The statement was dismissed by Russian Vice President Andrei Zavidiya, who compared it to the numerous instances of gerrymandering currently going on in the United States after the most recent census last year.

“Right now, in your country, you are redrawing borders on ethnic lines,” Zavidiya told a reporter from Time Magazine, “this is no different.”

International human rights groups have reported that the Armenians have expanded beyond the borders of the Oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh and are ethnically cleansing almost all of the territory west of the Kura River.

Azerbaijani refugees flee their homes in Western Azerbaijan. Most refugees describe acts of "violence" and "ethnic cleansing" committed by Armenian troops. (AP)




“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”



(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies)

By John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)


CHAPTER NINE

Once President Alksnis announced the new borders of the Republic of Artsakh, the shock from politicians all over the UDR was instantaneous. Many politicians outside of Russia were worried that Alksnis would embrace what was called “The Ter-Petrosyan Proposal,” which Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan proffered to the Kremlin. The Ter-Petrosyan proposal which would have given the new Republic of Artsakh the breakaway Oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as some Azerbaijani territory bordering the Armenian Republic to allow it to share a common border with Armenia, easing its integration into Armenia. Azerbaijani representatives balked at the proposal. Most supported the “Mutallibov Proposal”, named after the former Azerbaijani president who was trying to reestablish himself as a force in the country. His plan, which would have given Nagorno-Karabakh almost total autonomy while not going so far as to recognize formal separation, was widely seen as unlikely to appease either the Armenians or the anti-Azerbaijani forces of the UDR. However, many assumed that a compromise between the two was in the works. UDR Prime Minister Yuri Luzhkov proposed a third alternative, the “Luzhkov compromise” which would have given Armenia Nagorno-Karabakh and a small corridor connecting the Oblast with Armenia proper while giving Azerbaijan a small corridor through the Syunik province of Armenia allowing Azerbaijan to connect with Nakhchivan.

However, a forth movement emerged in the form of Russian President Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who still held firm to his “Greater Turkistan” theory. Demanding to put as much space between Turkey and Azerbaijan, Zhirinovsky proposed a border that exceeded even the wildest demands of the “Greater Armenia” movement. Few expected the proposal to be adopted, but to the shock of even Armenian President Ter-Petrosyan, Alksnis adopted the Zhirinovsky plan, which nearly doubled the size of his country.

The Ter-Petrossian Proposal, with the Republic of Artsakh in brown

The Mutallibov Proposal

The Luzhkov compromise

The Zhirinovsky Plan: Which also gave Armenia three rayons inside of Nakhchivan and created a seperate Republic out of Nakhivan (in Red).

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Is the Caucasus going to have its own version of Republika Srpska, or does that already happen with an Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan?

 

[Tongera]

Is the Caucasus going to have its own version of Republika Srpska, or does that already happen with an Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan?

I doubt it, seriously.

I love this Greater Armenia ideal. I want to see a Greater Serbia as well. Also, what would be the foreign policy towards Turkey?

 

[Pellegrino]

Is the Caucasus going to have its own version of Republika Srpska, or does that already happen with an Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan?

No, more like Kosovo or Israel. Independent (or in this case, part of a Union with Armenia) that some of the world recognizes, but other countries do not. The UDR already declares that the borders will be changed. Some countries shrug and call it "an internal matter" but we will see how the middle east and Islamic world takes the border changes in the coming posts.

 

[Pellegrino]

Just curious, how will this affect the U.S. presidential elections in 1992?

Man, Zhirinovsky is not going to have a good reputation.

(Although he isn't the worst leader of the Soviet Union or Russia in a TL. That dubious honor would go to either Ogarkov in the Protest and Survive universe (if you've read those timelines set in that universe, you know why) or Andrei Chikatilo in For All Time (1).)

(1) I'm not making that up, Pellegrino Shots.

We are starting to see ramifications now. We see that Bush 1 does still lose the 1992 election, but that Bill Clinton is not the Democratic nominee...

 

[Plumber]

We are starting to see ramifications now. We see that Bush 1 does still lose the 1992 election, but that Bill Clinton is not the Democratic nominee...

You just want it to be Bush-Kerrey-Bush-Kerry don't you?

 

[Pellegrino]

You just want it to be Bush-Kerrey-Bush-Kerry don't you?

LOL, well we almost had Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.

But keep in mind, John Engler is still leading the polls over John Kerry in TTL, we don't know yet if he pulls it off...

 

[Strategos' Risk]

A sitting war president getting successfully primaried out of the running seems really crazy, but honestly it's no less crazy than the rest of this scenario, and in my opinion fits in quite well in terms of being a unique and unconsidered idea. That said, I'm curious as to what Bush messed up besides dealing with the devil.

 

[Garbageman]

Well, I was going to vote for Ayn Rand in Katanga for this year's Turtledoves, but you're making me think twice...

 

[Pellegrino]

A sitting war president getting successfully primaried out of the running seems really crazy, but honestly it's no less crazy than the rest of this scenario, and in my opinion fits in quite well in terms of being a unique and unconsidered idea. That said, I'm curious as to what Bush messed up besides dealing with the devil.

True, but keep in mind that in OTL Bush took an 80% approval rating into a 51% victory because, in part, he expanded the War on Terror into Iraq. Still, most felt that he was stronger on national security and he was doing well in Afhanistan. By 2008 his popularity was around 22% and much of that was over his handling of Iraq and Afghanistan and the economy. In TTL a partnership with Russia alienates the Republican base more than just about anything, and clearly in 2004 it doesn't look at all like Afghanistan is going well. We are seeing that, although there is a lot of hope right now, it is clear that it won't take long for the cold war to start right back up. We will see a world where the cold war never really ends, and so Russia will always be a major topic in any election, just like it was from 1948-1988 in OTL. Also, as we see from the Bob Kerrey presidency, the Democrats start to flank the Republicans on national security, creating a bit of a twist in national perception. Bush 1 is seen to have blown it with zhirinovsky, but he s forgiven to a certain extent because zhirinovsky was an unknown quantity. Bush 2's partnership would be seen as inexcusable if anything would go wrong considering zhirinovsky's track record by 2001. And we know that things go very, very wrong in Afghanistan. I think that this creates a new Reagan Revolution, basically the republicans decide to dump Bush before they have a repeat of 1992 where a Bush lost to a war veteran named Kerrey. Pat Buchanan will never get off the ground because his pro Russian positions, so Bush gets an unexpected opponent in John Engler, who in OTL was very ticked that he was passed over for the VP slot in 2000.

Basically, if it happened to LBJ, it could happen to Bush. Sure LBJ dropped out, but what's to say Bush doesn't bow out after a disastrous performance in Iowa or New Hampshire?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

That is a deliciously twisted alternate American political scene, and very fascinating. Great analysis and extrapolation one every level.

 

[Cylon_Number_14]

The variety in your writing styles continues to make this TL one of the best written on the boards.

As to the story, the situation of Armenia being coerced to annex more territory than they want is a fascinating quirk in the story.

Also, I like the sideshow you have on how the butterfly effect hits the US, but even as a fan of American TLs, that part is definitely just a sideshow compared to the fascinating and frightening developments in the UDR.

 

[Pellegrino]

Well, I was going to vote for Ayn Rand in Katanga for this year's Turtledoves, but you're making me think twice...

LOL, I've been following that time line as well, And I can see that is quite a compliment. Thank you...

 

[Pellegrino]

PART SIXTEEN: THE CASASTROPHE OF DUSHANBE

Well, we knew that sooner or later Zhirinovsky would overplay his hand and the Russian nation would suffer as a result. In OTL the civil war in Tajikistan really didn't involve the Russian population, which made up nearly 13% of the pre-war population. But it was so violent that the natural effect was to cause Russians to flee the country en masse. But in TTL, Zhirinovsky can't seem to see the obvious problems with a military intervention in Tajikistan, and creates a fiasco that nearly ends his presidency after his victory in Azerbaijan.

Also, we see a new twist on Zhirinovsky's plan, where the UDR and Alksnis refuse to destabilize the country by creating or supporting militias, we see Zhirinovsky starting to imitate the Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia by creating militias.

And a few new topics introduced in this TL:

Estonian Lennart Meri (who in OTL becomes president of Estonia)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lennart_Georg_Meri

City of Narva, Estonia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narva

Rahmon Nabiyez, first president of Tajikistan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahmon_Nabiyev

The Soviet 201st Motor Rifle Division
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/201st_Motor_Rifle_Division


CNN interview with Jack Matlock, former ambassador to the USSR

August 18, 2000


CNN: Was there any serious threat to Zhirinovsky in the early months of his reign?

Jack Matlock: Yes, I think so. None of the members of the unity government cared for him at all, most just tolerated him and were waiting for him to mess things up enough to justify ousting him. Immediately after the successful war in Azerbaijan, and the new Union treaty that he signed with the Ukraine and Belarus, he really created a situation in which he was, for a very short period of time, seemingly untouchable.

CNN: How did the new union treaty go over with his UDR counterpart, Viktor Alksnis?

Jack Matlock: It didn’t go over well at all. To Alksnis, it was very similar to the new Union treaty that Gorbachev was going to sign on the morning of the coup. In hindsight, it was considerably more intrusive, but few saw it that way in December of 1991. And it further marginalized Alksnis. But after the War in Azerbaijan, finding anyone who was willing to stand up to Zhirinovsky was difficult. It was similar to Germany in 1940 after the fall of Poland and France. Nobody wanted to speak out against him at that point, he was too popular and whatever he was doing seemed to work. For the military, he gave them a much needed victory. For the Russian citizens, he seemed like the only man willing to fight to keep the country together. That made him very popular, despite his obvious flaws. For a short period of time, he could do no wrong. At least that was the case for about four weeks. Until December of 1991.

CNN: What happened in December of ‘91?

Matlock: The catastrophe of Dushanbe.


Alksnis warns Zhirinovsky to ease pressure on republics for new union treaty

December 18, 1991|By Scott Sutcliffe | Dallas Morning News



MOSCOW – UDR leader Viktor Alksnis express outrage against his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, on Russian TV last night. Alksnis, who up until last week’s growing crisis in Central Asia, was seen as a staunch ally of the Russian President, pulled no punches in condemning what he described as “intense pressure from the Russian government directed towards the other republics.” Alksnis condemned what he described as a blatant attempt by Zhirinovsky to usurp the federal authority of the UDR government by forming an independent Union treaty. Thus far Armenia and Ukraine have already signed on with the new union treaty with Russia, with Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan in negotiations. The new treaty, grants nominal independence to each of the republics as part of a moderately loose federation. Although all Republics would retain control over internal matters, they would share a common currency and no republic would be permitted to establish diplomatic ties with other countries or be permitted to have a free standing army, with the central government handling all matters of defense and foreign relations. Alksnis said that a new union treaty would backfire and could cause the dissolution of the UDR.


Mr. Alksnis stressed that the UDR intended eventually to sign a new union treaty, a position overwhelmingly endorsed last week in a vote of the Federal Congress of People's Deputies. But he added that rushing to force a treaty upon unwilling republics would only embolden those republics who are seeking to leave the Union. The statement was widely seen as a not so veiled implication that Zhirinovsky had overplayed his hand in the Republic of Tajikistan, where the federal government has encountered a surprisingly fierce uprising that the international media and the Red Cross is now calling a “revolution.”

Without mentioning Mr. Zhirinovsky by name, Mr. Alksnis denounced the "tone of discussions between Russia and the other republics" and ridiculed the demands by Zhirinovsky that all 15 republics sign the treaty.


“We need to work with the other Republics,” Alksnis said to the People’s Deputies, “to listen to them and to ask them what each republic needs to make the UDR work, not to force our terms upon them and demand they accept them.”


However, the speech by Alksnis was widely ridiculed in the Russian Congress, where Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party is strongest.


"The Latvian is showing his true colors,” Vice President Andrei Zavidiya said in an interview with the LDP controlled Pravda Newspaper yesterday, “this is a very fair union treaty that gives the republics more autonomy than ever before. So why is he steadfast in his opposition to it? Because it takes power from him and gives it to the people.”


Many Russians are torn in their loyalties over what is becoming a dangerous game of brinkmanship between Zhirinovsky and Alksnis. On one hand, Zhirinovsky is seen as the “hero of Baku,” and is credited with conducting a military operation in the breakaway Republic of Azerbaijan that prevented the immediate dissolution of the Union. However, many are questioning the terms of the new union treaty and the disastrous military operation in Tajikistan, where the federal military has been almost completely neutralized by pro-independence insurgents. Zhirinovsky supporters have blamed the problems in Tajikistan on the leadership of President Alksnis.


“If we could get this union treaty signed we could actually send our military through Kazakhstan, and into Dushanbe,” one lawmaker said, “obviously time is of the utmost importance to President Zhirinovsky. I only wish President Alksnis shared our leaders’ vision and appreciation for the seriousness of the situation.”


Scare Tactics


The Federal president's tactic seems to be to try to scare the rebellious republics into signing the union treaty voluntarily rather than risk the greater evil of an invasion at the hands of a Zhirinovsky-led army.


From Georgia yesterday came the latest evidence of the volatility of the current status quo. After the republic's nationalist parliament voted last year to dissolve the 68-year-old autonomous status of the territory of South Ossetia, a territory occupied by the Ossetian ethnic minority, the presence of Russian and federal troops in October has enflamed the nationalist sentiments of the South Ossetian region. The Russian government voted in November to create an “autonomous united Ossetian Oblast” made up of both the Russian Ossetian province and the Georgian South Ossetian territory. The move was seen as one aimed at punishing the Georgian Republic for its opposition to the war in Azerbaijan. Former Georgian president Zviad Gamsakhurdia had initially condemned the move, and ominously said that the presence of the UDR military was “likely to provoke a violent response and push the area toward civil war.” However, his ouster by former Soviet foreign affairs minister Eduard Shevardnadze last week appears to have eased tensions between the federal government and the Georgian Republic, with Shevardnadze calling for “a partnership based on peace and mutual respect” between Georgia and the UDR.


“Azerbaijan and Chechnya- “Profiles on the Russian "War on Terror”



(Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies)

By John Miller
Routledge Press, (2007)


CHAPTER THIRTEEN

The victory in Azerbaijan came at a steep price for the federal government. Although the military victory was quick and decisive, it created a renewed sense of isolation with the international community as well increased fears from not only the UDR republics, but also former allies in Eastern Europe. The initial impact inside the UDR was one of either total capitulation or total rebellion, with little middle ground. In Belarus and Ukraine, the local governments quickly accepted the terms of the new union treaty proffered by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, in part due to the example of how Armenia was rewarded for cooperation whereas Azerbaijan was punished for its planned declaration of independence. Whereas the republics of Georgia and Kazakhstan appeared to initially be opposed to the military action in Azerbaijan and the actions of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, both appeared to have been successfully cowed by the display of federal military might in Azerbaijan to oppose secession outright. However, in the Baltic Republics and the Republics of Moldova, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, the effect was the exact opposite. While Moldova elected to turn to their Romanian neighbors for assistance, the Baltic Republics turned to the international community. However, in Tajikistan, there emerged a feeling of isolation from not only the new, Russo-centric federal government, but also towards the international community. Recognizing the lack of support given to Azerbaijan in October of 1991, the Tajiks elected to take a self-reliant, and shockingly violent, path to independence. Perhaps no republic acted with more anti-government forcefulness than Tajikistan, and the federal government’s inability to quell the rebellion quickly nearly led to the end of the Zhirinovsky reign.

Riding high on hubris, Zhirinovsky grossly underestimated the anti-Russian sentiments in Tajikistan until it was too late. The Tajik Republic was, in 1991, a poor and ethnically diverse republic that appeared ill-suited to independence and, like Azerbaijan, maintained strong ties to the former Soviet central government. Its first democratic election was held on December 2nd, 1991 where a former Communist Party attaché named Rahmon Nabiyev won a disputed and controversial election. Facing fierce opposition from opposing parties and numerous ethnic groups inside his country, Nabiyev recognized that he was faced with an unenviable position of maintaining unity while keeping the UDR at bay. Nabiyev also recognized that his ties to Moscow in the past were no longer an asset but a liability in the new UDR. Nabiyev was determined not to make the same mistake as his Azerbaijani counterpart, and so he elected to take steps to not only appease his political opponents, but to bring them closer into a unity government.

“Nabiyev saw that Azerbaijan hoped until the bitter end that Zhirinovsky would change his tune,” commented an opposition politician from the Gharm province of Tajikistan, “So when he won the presidency he immediately took steps to nationalize the 201st Motor Rifle Division, one of the most feared units in the former Soviet Union.”

The 201st Motor Rifle Division was one of the UDR’s most battle hardened units, with extensive experience in Afghanistan. It, like the Soviet 4th Army stationed in Azerbaijan, was made up almost entirely of local troops under the command of mostly Slavic officers. Recognizing how that was exploited by federal troops in Azerbaijan, President Nabiyev immediately nationalized the army and detained its foreign officer class, replacing them with Tajik soldiers from all ethnic groups across the country, a clear olive branch to those groups that were close to civil war.

“It immediately calmed the situation down,” commented one officer who received his promotion at the time, “prior to that we were suffering from defections and in-fighting. But Nabiyev exploited the clear threat that was coming from up north. We all were willing to put aside any differences and fight the foreign invaders that we saw were occupying the country.”

Although Nabiyev’s initial intention was to only round up a small number of Russian officers, the anti-Russian sentiment soon spiraled out of control, in part due to the failed attempt to destroy the 201st Motor Rifle Division from the “Russian People’s Unity Front,” a poorly trained and poorly assembled militia that began to emerge as soon as Zhirinovsky took power. The militia began seizing weapons all over the country and, on December 19th, tried to launch an attack on the new Tajik national army near the border with Afghanistan. The attack, which was reportedly given the green light by President Zhirinovsky, turned into a disaster for pro-Russian forces as the better equipped, and better trained, Tajik army easily crushed the rag-tag militia. The attack, however, led to a violent pogrom against Russian nationals living in Tajikistan. Thousands were rounded up and hundreds of thousands were driven from their homes. It was at this time that the federal government’s inability to respond to the growing rebellion in Tajikistan created one of the greatest threats to the presidency of Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

“General Lebed saw the victory in Azerbaijan for what it was,” commented one soldier stationed in Dushanbe at the time of the rebellion, “A victory over a virtually unarmed Republic that shared a common border with Russia to the north and had a hostile military bordering it to the west.”

General Lebed also saw Azerbaijan as a republic that had weak leadership and horrible geography that favored the invaders, and with the advantage of surprise he saw that the UDR was able to secure a quick victory. But he also saw that the UDR military was badly broken and it needed time to be repaired. Most of the troops mobilized either deserted or just flat out refused to serve in Azerbaijan. And reaching Azerbaijan was surprisingly difficult for the UDR troops. He knew that a military action in Central Asia would be impossible unless Kazakhstan was on board, and there was little to indicate they were eager to have a federal army “pass through” their country only to stay as had been the case in Georgia. General Lebed was vocal to those in the federal government that a war in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, or Kyrgyzstan would be disastrous and needed to be avoided at all cost. General Lebed countered that the focus needed to remain on those smaller republics that shared a border with Russia or the Ukraine, such as Georgia and Moldova. Although President Alksnis clearly favored the Lebed approach, Russian president Vladimir Zhirinovsky was unwilling to surrender central Asia, and proceeded to encourage Russia militias to act with increasing impunity across the former Soviet Union.

Fighters from the Russian People’s Unity Front attack troops from the Tajik 201st Motor Rifle Division Division during the failed assault on Dushanbe in December, 1991 (AP)



Russian Militias forming inside Estonia
December 01, 1991
AP

A Russian man armed with an AK-47 crosses the border into the Estonian city of Varna

NARVA, Estonia-- Hundreds of ex-Soviet soldiers and ethnic Russian citizens of this city resting on the Estonian-Russian border, have reportedly taken up arms and have rejected the authority of the Estonian government in Tallinn.

“We are Russians, and we support the Russian nation,” commented Yuri Agagulyan, a veteran of the Afghan war, “and if Estonia thinks they can ignore us then they are sorely mistaken!”

The city has emerged as a flashpoint between the breakaway republic and its Russian neighbor, with thousands of Russians flooding into the city, often armed with AK-47 rifles. The population of the city has ballooned to over 100,000 people, almost all Russian, making it the third largest city in Estonia. However, many international observers have openly criticized both President Alksnis and his Russian counterpart, President Zhirinovsky for what British Prime Minister John Major called “a series of reckless provocations.”

Most Russians who are flooding across the border are claiming Estonian birth, although the documents they provided to international observers appeared to be forged. In one instance, over one hundred men provided documents that indicated a birthplace of a hospital in Narva that had been closed in the 1940s, years before their alleged births.

“Clearly this is a concerted effort from the Russian government to justify what we all can see is an invasion,” Estonian minister of foreign affairs Lennart Meri told the BBC yesterday, “I call upon the international community to condemn the actions of the Russian government.”

Refugees among the fighters

However, the situation is further complicated by the growing number of refugees who are fleeing the increasingly repressive government in the former Soviet Union. Suggestions by the Estonian government indicating a desire to close all border crossings with Russia have earned condemnation from human rights groups. Numerous ethnic minorities in St. Petersburg have fled the city to either Finland or to Estonia, citing increased discrimination from the government. Also, economic refugees are among those fleeing to Varna, citing the European Community’s recognition of Estonian independence.

“I’ve waited 40 years to flee this country,” commented one Russian refugee, “I want to go to New York and live in freedom.”

Another disturbing trend has emerged as well, with hundreds of political asylum seekers fleeing to the city as well.

“My family was targeted because we are Azerbaijani,” one woman said as tears filled her eyes, “it is not safe for us in Russia anymore. It is not safe for anyone.”


“My Russia- An Autobiography by former Russian Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis”


Published by Interbook, © 1998


CHAPTER TWENTY-ONE

The Presidency of Vladimir Zhirinovsky clearly reached a low point when he began arming Russian civilians across the UDR with the intention of creating militias to oppose the local government. When Russian militias invaded Latvia and Lithuania the immediate fear was severe international sanctions or even war! Even Vice President Zavidiya, Zhirinovsky’s only real ally in the cabinet, was growing increasingly critical and disillusioned with his president. It was amazing that just a few weeks after the capitulation of Azerbaijan; Zhirinovsky was already losing all of his political capital. But when those same Russian militias were routed in Dushanbe, everything changed. Now we were ready to finally get rid of this madman. Recognizing that his grip on power was rapidly fading, Zhirinovsky began to push harder for a new union treaty that would weaken President Alksnis, the very thing he was criticizing his opponents about just a few months ago! Now he wanted a weaker federal government, not a strong one, because now his power was threatened.

I remember seeing that General Lebed was furious over the formation of the militias. He knew that they would be no match, at least in Tajikistan, where they would be isolated and resented by the local population. And to order an assault on the 201st Motor Rifle Division using nothing but 1000 drunk, untrained men with Kalashnikovs! What sort of idiocy was this man possessed with! It was at this time I contacted Russian Prime Minister Ivan Silayev and told him that we needed to act now. I asked him to meet me at a restaurant near the Kremlin to discuss our options. We needed to remove Zhirinovsky before he started World War III!

“I think you are right,” Silayev said over coffee, “but we can’t do it alone. He is still too popular, and a constitutional coup will only embolden his supporters.”

“Then what do we do?” I countered, “Let him lead us down the road to hell?”

“We need more support,” Silayev countered. “If you can get the LDP to reject Zhirinovsky then we can decapitate him politically, and if I can get the military to support our action then we can kill any chance he has of countering us.”

“We will need Lebed and General Troshev,” I added, “they are very popular right now. We need someone the people can rally around.”

Silayev looked worried at the statement; he rubbed his forehead and responded in a near whisper.


“I don’t trust them,” he said, “especially Lebed. He is manipulating everyone. If we are not careful with him it will come back to haunt us. And Troshev is a war criminal. We can’t let a madman like that too close.”

I sunk in my chair. Deep down, I agreed with him. I didn’t trust either of those two, but we needed them. I wanted to say he was right, but what option did we have? Our waiter came and took our plates. He recognized us and smiled as he thanked us for our service to our country. I could tell the young man wanted to talk, but I just didn’t feel like discussing politics with him. I smiled and shook his hand without saying anything.

“It is amazing how the country is really coming together now,” he said as he shook my hand, “and I bet you are particularly excited about Prime Minister Luzhkov’s announcement.”

My head shot up. What did UDR Prime Minister Yuri Luzhkov do? I was told nothing!

“What do you mean?” I asked incredulously.

“On the radio,” the waiter replied with a smile, “he announced an agreement with President Zhirinovsky. They are introducing private property to the UDR. Large portions of government held property will be privatized.”

I looked at Silayev in shock, and I could tell the announcement was an even bigger surprise to him. He recognized that Zhirinovsky was now trying to flank the liberals as he was seeing his support with hardliners crumble over his fiasco in Dushanbe. But sadly I saw something else in his eyes at that moment. In that moment I had lost his support.

He would not back President Alksnis when the alternative was true reform. Vladimir Zhirinovsky had won one more battle. He won Silayev.

 

[Tongera]

Zhirinovsky making economic reform? Oh shit!!!