I can see the USA occupying the CSA, but I don’t think they would try reunification. The CS population would be bitterly opposed to it the USA would face generation after generation of uprisings (Just like the Mormons but on a far larger scale) plus their troops would be too thin on the ground to control every hotspot.
The US won’t need to occupy the CSA anyway the threat of nuclear weapons should be enough to stop any future aggression by the CSA.
In my opinion the most likely scenarios are:
1) The USA sets-up a puppet CSA government (or at least a more rational and sane one) that would be more palatable to the CS citizens and would avoid the problems trying re-unifaction would bring., The CSA would also be banned from reasrching nuclear weapons.
2) Britain loses Malaya but hangs on to India. Japan conquers the rest of China and takes aussieland. Creating an almost-perfect pacific empire
3) The US and Japan ‘call it a draw’ in the pacific…for a few years at least.
4)The blacks get full CS citizenship or are allowed to freely re-locate to the US, The freedom party is outlawed and useing their slogans or salutes in public or for political purposes is harshly punished
5) The war in Europe not sure, it seems to sway back and forth, but Germany is outnumbered and even though they have Einstein etc I’m pretty sure Germany isn’t a big producer of uranium. So no nukes for them.
As a side note I wonder were Hitler is in all this, I suppuse since the Germans won WW1 he wont accuse the Jews of stabbing the German army in the back.
I've got doubts that the Japanese would be able to conquer all of China even in this TL. China's got something like five times the people than Japan does, so I would think they would settle for Manchokuo-like puppet states centered around Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou, leaving a rump Chinese state.
I also think you're right in saying that the war of numbers is eventually going to bite Germany. I can predict that Russia will make some type of comeback like OT WWII, except that after the war the borders will remain basically the same as they were prior to GWII. France is also still in the picture, as well as the British, so that also adds to Germany's woes.
I'm also not sure how long Austria-Hungary can last in terms of maintaining internal stability, considering the ungodly amount of ethnic strife that takes place. I'm picturing something like a Soviet Union-type collapse. Same goes for the Ottoman Empire.
As for the Confederacy. Well, they're basically f--ed, unless Fitzbellmont can somehow pull a nuke out of his ass, which likely isn't going to happen. Even without the bombs, uber-General Morrell will be on the attack, cut the CSA in half and end up a war hero. Later, he'll be this timelines Eisenhower and not only that they'll name the next generation of barrells after him. M1A1 Morrell Barrell's? You betcha.
Other predictions I'm going to make, include:
Daniel MacArthur will also finally do something right too, (throughout the Grapple the Virginia front went basically nowhere), and push down into Richmond, where Jake Featherston will take control of an artillery piece and fire at US troops until he dies in a blaze of glory.
General 'Fat Man' Abner Dowling will continue his push into Texas. I wouldn't be surprised that somepoint during 'In at the Death', Dowling will get a heatstroke or die from a heart attack, after all he isn't exactly fit and obese men generally don't live to grow old.
Michael Pound will continue to pwn the Confederacy, while receiving more unwanted promotions. He'll probably end up a major or lieutenant colonel before the war is done. He'll be in the military up until the day he dies.
Chester Martin ends up baby-sitting all of Flora Blackford's relatives while on the front. In Great War it was David Hamburger, and this time around he hooks up with Yossel Reisen Jr. and Joshua Blackford, along with Armstrong Grimes. I'm also betting that Grimes ends up hitting on Morrell's daughter after the war.
As for Flora Blackford herself, she'll continue her Congressional Carreer, and possibly make it into the Supreme court.
Sam Carsen and George Enos Jr. will do their thing. I predict Carsen will get promoted again because of a oppotune death of a high ranking officer, and hopefully end the war commanding a battleship, if not an Aircraft carrier. I mean, he should after years of faithful service with the navy.
Clearance Potter and Nathan Bedford III try to pull an assasination on Featherston, only to fail and be sent to have their population reduced.
Jeff Pinkard undergoes a Nuremburg-style execution, or if he escapes, decides to hightail it to Argentina or South Africa. Ferd Koenig will take a suicide pill, and Saul Goldman will administer poison to his wife and all six of his children just like Goebbels did. As for the hapless CSA vice-president (I forgot his name, showing just how unimportant he is), well, he'll probably be executed too, poor chap.
Jorge Rodriguez will either get killed, or return to Sonora after the war finding out that it belongs to Mexico, where afterwards he'll illegally cross the border into California. Jerry Dover, not sure how he's gonna end up, except that he'll do his duty until the end, and then be left to rebuild whatever is left of the rump-Confederate state.
Also, Cassius, Scipio's son, ends up the chiarman of one of the new Black Socialist Republics in Mississippi and Alabama. Jonathan Moss will go back to being a lawyer again, or he'll probably take part as one of the judges of the Nuremburg-type trial. As for Cincinnatus, don't really know what's going to happen to him, besides that he'll return to his job and afterwards live out a cozy retirement.
Spartacus and his gang will also be high-ranking members of the black Socialist republic.
So, here are some of my predictions, tell me what you think?