WI the US won the Second Mexican War?

[bguy]

Unless a fleet is stationed in Alaska there is nothing to stop the Japanese doing the same again albeit with some warning.

Some warning is still pretty valuable though. The distance from Alaska to Seattle is comparable to the distance from San Diego to Seattle. Some warning is the difference between a unified US Pacific Fleet waiting for the Japanese off the coast of Washington, and the Japanese getting there first and thus keeping the US Pacific Fleet divided.

Also, the Pacific is a big ocean. If the USA stakes out Alaskan waters the IJN can refuel at sea so it can swing far south and approach say California from that direction.

The southern route is much, much longer. (And requires slipping past a massive US fleet base in Hawaii.)

As for the Russians, they have enough trouble with the Germans in their west and the Japanese in their east. They are not going to add to their enemies

Diplomatic arrangements can be reshuffled very quickly in a multi-polar world though. What happens if Germany and Russia end up aligning? And indeed it wouldn't even need an alliance between them to make Russia a potential future threat. IOTL Kaiser Wilhelm tried early in his reign to get the Russians to focus more on the east. A Russia that's just got its teeth kicked in by Germany and the Austro-Hungarians might be much more susceptible to that kind of German "encouragement" since expansion in the east will certainly seem to offer better prospects for Russia than trying to go for Round 2 against the now even stronger Germans.

 

[Michael B]

Diplomatic arrangements can be reshuffled very quickly in a multi-polar world though. What happens if Germany and Russia end up aligning? And indeed it wouldn't even need an alliance between them to make Russia a potential future threat. IOTL Kaiser Wilhelm tried early in his reign to get the Russians to focus more on the east. A Russia that's just got its teeth kicked in by Germany and the Austro-Hungarians might be much more susceptible to that kind of German "encouragement" since expansion in the east will certainly seem to offer better prospects for Russia than trying to go for Round 2 against the now even stronger Germans.

This is not an argument for a naval base in Alaska. Whilst the Russians did expand from Siberia to Alaska and down the Pacific coast they were easily pushed out from Britain.
Besides. if they are pushing eastwards, that is a threat to Japan so any Russian Pacific Fleet is going to have to stay close at home to guard against them

Then there is the little matter of China whom they carved a slice of territory from in the 19th Century and who might want it back.

With two near threats in the Far East it is highly unlikely that the Russians will want to add a third,

 

[bguy]

With two near threats in the Far East it is highly unlikely that the Russians will want to add a third,

Can you really not conceive of any way the US and Russia could end up at war?

What if Russia and Japan come to an accord to divide up China between them and the US objects?

Or what if Russia and Germany form an alliance and Germany gets into a conflict with the US and calls on Russia for help?

Or what if Russia and France continue their existing alliance and France gets into a conflict with the US and calls on Russia for help?

Or what if Germany gets into a conflict with Russia (or the Soviet Union if the communists come to power) and calls on the US for help?

None of those scenarios are unthinkable and every one of them could lead to the US and Russia in a shooting war in the Pacific, and remember there doesn't seem to have been a Russo-Japanese War in TL-191, so the Russians are a lot stronger in the Pacific than they were IOTL. (They presumably still have Port Arthur and haven't lost their Pacific Fleet.)

But even if the Oracle of Delphi showed up and personally gave the US president a 100% prophecy guarantee straight from Apollo himself that the US will never be in a real shooting war with Russia from that moment to the end of time, having Alaska would still be of use to the US for keeping out the British and Japanese. And those nations using Alaskan waters to get to the US is not just a theoretical danger. It straight up happened in the First Great War. Here's the relevant quote from the novels.

"He picked up snatches of their conversation-place names mostly. 'Kodiak... Prince Rupert... Victoria... Seatle.'

'Since he'd just been thinking wistfully of a cooler clime, he called after them: 'What about Seattle?'

The two men stopped. 'Nothing good," one of them answered. "The goddamn J*** have reinforced the limey flett off British Columbia.'

'You're right-that isn't good,' Sam agreed. The places they'd mentioned made sense to him now. 'They sailed up by way of Russian Alaska and then down along the west coast of Canada, did they?'

'That's what they did, all right, the bastards', the other sailor agreed unhappily. 'On account of it, the North Pacific Squadron can't hardly stick its nose out of Puget Sound.'"

-Great War: American Front, Chapter XIX

And it's not like it would take an enormous garrison to take and hold Alaska. Alaska was barely populated in the early 20th century and there's no reason to think that is any different in TL-191, so it's not going to be seething with rebellion. (IOTL in 1897 the US Army garrison in Alaska consisted of a grand total of 30 men.)

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TL-191 US will presumably want a slightly bigger garrison than 30 men, but a single regiment would be more than sufficient force to hold the territory.

So what exactly is the strategic logic in failing to take a territory which would help you plug a gap in your nation's defenses that the enemy exploited in the last war, and which would not require substantial resources on your part to take and hold?

 

[Michael B]

What if Russia and Japan come to an accord to divide up China between them and the US objects?

Or what if Russia and Germany form an alliance and Germany gets into a conflict with the US and calls on Russia for help?

Or what if Russia and France continue their existing alliance and France gets into a conflict with the US and calls on Russia for help?

Or what if Germany gets into a conflict with Russia (or the Soviet Union if the communists come to power) and calls on the US for help?

None of those scenarios are unthinkable and every one of them could lead to the US and Russia in a shooting war in the Pacific, and remember there doesn't seem to have been a Russo-Japanese War in TL-191, so the Russians are a lot stronger in the Pacific than they were IOTL. (They presumably still have Port Arthur and haven't lost their Pacific Fleet.)

If Russia and Japan come to an accord on China then the USA and Germany will act on their alliance and stop them.

If France gets in a conflict with the USA Washington can call on its German allies for help.

If Germany get in another war with Russia Berlin can call on its American allies for help.

Whilst Russia is stronger in TL-191 than on OTl it is still a industrial basket case amd has the same social issues. Also, there is the US-German alliance. That means that American money and resources are not available to non-Central Power European powers. Yes,the finance is smaller than on OTL but Cannuck minerals and agricultural products are controlled by Washington.

As for the Pacific Fleet it is going to be smaller than OTL because one of the battleships was built in the USA and that is going to be a non-starter. Also, post Great War all the USA needs is one aircraft carrier and they can do a Battle Taranto on it if they leave port.