WI: Ireland intervenes in The Troubles?

[theirishdreamer]

Hmmm

The main problem with this scenario is your very likely going to see a general uprising of nationalists in Northern Ireland, Newry and Derry it will look like a liberation initially and then the ethnic cleasing of the North begins.
Query: Is that political viable for a British government?

Realistically as i understand it the idea was to take corridors to Newry and Derry and allow Catholics to flee south rather than actually implementing and "invasion".

 

[euromellows]

I'm guessing that if a Taoiseach ordered something like this the order would very quickly end up in the national news while the defence forces declared that of course they were going to comply. Just as soon as they got their WW2 surplus (or earlier) equipment operational. Which would take a while.

Lol. Nice image.

 

[sparky42]

Lol. Nice image.

It's a nice but sadly true image, the end of the 60's caught the Defence Forces at their worst nearly in terms of equipment. There would have been no way for them to actually carry out this Operation, which is why I'm sure they'd have stalled while waiting for the Daíl to revoke it.

 

[yulzari]

Rumour has it that the UK used to raise the question of how the Republic would deal with the Loyalists if they were given NI as the Loyalists were probably better armed and more numerous than the Irish Army/police and certainly better organised as a para military force than PIRA who were organised(ish) as a terrorist set of cells much of whose membership was well known to the authorities.

The Irish army was quite right that they would be unable to take much of NI, never mind hold it, even if the British army had left. They were also well aware that the British army was there to protect both sides. My brother was in the British army at the start of the troubles and was first fired on by the Loyalists.

Given the history of the Republic, I presume that the role and purpose of the Irish army is to support the government in the event of civil war and it was civil war that they feared most given that many more Irish died in the civil war than in the ill chosen armed struggle for independence.

This is no insult to the ability of the Irish army's troops. I had an ex member in my British army unit in the time of the troubles.

There is also the question of the consequences of such an invasion upon the millions of Irish in Great Britain who were all but unaffected by any public animosity despite shoot and bomb to kill policies against troops and civilians by PIRA. I would that some of the USA population could act the same way in respect of their Muslim (and weirdly Hindu and Sikh) neighbours.

As an addenda; I think that I am right that an invasion of NI by the forces of the Republic would trigger the requirement of the NATO Treaty to support it's invaded member (not that they would need to).

 

[sparky42]

Rumour has it that the UK used to raise the question of how the Republic would deal with the Loyalists if they were given NI as the Loyalists were probably better armed and more numerous than the Irish Army/police and certainly better organised as a para military force than PIRA who were organised(ish) as a terrorist set of cells much of whose membership was well known to the authorities.

The Irish army was quite right that they would be unable to take much of NI, never mind hold it, even if the British army had left. They were also well aware that the British army was there to protect both sides. My brother was in the British army at the start of the troubles and was first fired on by the Loyalists.

Given the history of the Republic, I presume that the role and purpose of the Irish army is to support the government in the event of civil war and it was civil war that they feared most given that many more Irish died in the civil war than in the ill chosen armed struggle for independence.

This is no insult to the ability of the Irish army's troops. I had an ex member in my British army unit in the time of the troubles.

There is also the question of the consequences of such an invasion upon the millions of Irish in Great Britain who were all but unaffected by any public animosity despite shoot and bomb to kill policies against troops and civilians by PIRA. I would that some of the USA population could act the same way in respect of their Muslim (and weirdly Hindu and Sikh) neighbours.

As an addenda; I think that I am right that an invasion of NI by the forces of the Republic would trigger the requirement of the NATO Treaty to support it's invaded member (not that they would need to).

Aide to Civilian Powers is just one of their duties, the obvious examples of such being Border Patrols, Cash in Transit, supporting Gardaí but they are tasked with other duties as well, for example throughout the Troubles Ireland was also maintaining a Battalion level deployment on UN duties at all times. Which given about 10-15K of troops was a fair burden.

I really doubt the UK Government ever really floated the idea of handing over NI to the Republic, the political cost would be huge, and knowing the muppets in the Daíl they would have jumped at it no matter the risks. Hell some of the TD's might actually have funded the Defence Forces to the needed level for this if they had a chance.

As to the need for NATO it would never have come to that, at the end of the day the UK knew exactly what the capabilities of the Defence Forces were.

 

[Thoresby]

What would happen if some time in the 60's the Irish elected Taoiseach Crazy McLooney who recognising that Ireland would get squashed flatter than a pancake in a military confrontation over Ulster decides the solution is to build up the Irish Defence Force until it can capture the North and implement a full North Korea style program of militarisation; i.e. 20% of the population in arms, 50% of the economy devoted to military needs etc. Bob the Alien Space Bat decides this is hilarious and works his magic and the Irish people go along with this and the rest of the world, including Britain neither notices or reacts. In addition the Irish economy stays at the OTL level despite a drastic drop in living standards due to the military build up diverting resources.
Under those circumstances could Ireland build a military force capable of taking and holding Ulster against Britain, NATO cannot intervene and nuclear weapons are banned.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

On the NATO point, it's quite true that legally an intervention would be grounds to invoke mutual defence, but that's really not the question. The question is whether the UK WOULD invoke it, or even seriously consider it, and I really don't see any reason they would. Mutual defence is not, strictly speaking, automatic; it does need to be invoked by the party under attack, and approved by NATO (though NATO has no right to refuse), if a member wants to handle something on it's own they are entirely within their rights to leave NATO out of the situation entirely..

 

[sparky42]

What would happen if some time in the 60's the Irish elected Taoiseach Crazy McLooney who recognising that Ireland would get squashed flatter than a pancake in a military confrontation over Ulster decides the solution is to build up the Irish Defence Force until it can capture the North and implement a full North Korea style program of militarisation; i.e. 20% of the population in arms, 50% of the economy devoted to military needs etc. Bob the Alien Space Bat decides this is hilarious and works his magic and the Irish people go along with this and the rest of the world, including Britain neither notices or reacts. In addition the Irish economy stays at the OTL level despite a drastic drop in living standards due to the military build up diverting resources.
Under those circumstances could Ireland build a military force capable of taking and holding Ulster against Britain, NATO cannot intervene and nuclear weapons are banned.

It's still a huge ask given the situation that OTL Ireland was at by 1960's

OK, 1961 the Irish population was 2.82 million (the lowest since the famine) reaching 2.9 million in 1970 (which means at a rough guess the NI population alone is near half the ROI population), so that's a maximum of 540K based on your 20% population in 1960, reaching 580K in 1970

Looking at some GDP figures I've found Irelands GDP was 1.6 Billion Dollars in 1960 reaching 3.4 Billion Dollars in 1968, that doesn't leave you with much room to play with even with 50% devoted to military purchases.

Given that Ireland would need to field at least some form of Navy and Airforce as a combat force, and starting with nothing it would be a huge capital expense. The Navy "could" be built in Cork but would have to be foreign import designs, electronics, weapons etc. The Air Crops would all be foreign as well so that's a huge drain on foreign reserves.

The Army's maximum training exercise was 2 divisions during WW2 so the gaps of training such a force would also be huge. Like I said no modern Armour, Artillery, Anti-Tank systems, barely switched over to NATO standard for PDF, still .303 for Reserves. No large scale training for integrated operations.

Hell you are talking about the largest Government building plan just to house these new forces, with new Barracks, Naval Bases, Airbases. All built to "modern" designs, (again something that really hasn't happened ever, with only the legacy bases being modified for uses)

It's too big an ask and given the naturally larger strength of the UK and Institutional Experience of the British Forces I don't see it turning out well. And even if the UK doesn't notice and even if operations go well, at this time the Punt is tied to the Pound (and exports are still predominately to the UK preEEC) so Day 1 the Irish economy free falls in every way imaginable.

 

[sparky42]

On the NATO point, it's quite true that legally an intervention would be grounds to invoke mutual defence, but that's really not the question. The question is whether the UK WOULD invoke it, or even seriously consider it, and I really don't see any reason they would. Mutual defence is not, strictly speaking, automatic; it does need to be invoked by the party under attack, and approved by NATO (though NATO has no right to refuse), if a member wants to handle something on it's own they are entirely within their rights to leave NATO out of the situation entirely..

which is what the UK would do, didn't Maggie react poorly to the suggestion of foreign involvement in NI during her time in office? And that was just for "peace keeping type".

 

[Yuhi33]

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned the possibility of using nonconventional means of support. If I remember correctly, Exercise Armageddon also suggested using Irish commandos to conduct covert guerrilla operations against the Unionist government in Northern Ireland without a formal declaration of war. This was supposed to draw the RUC and possibly the British Army away from the Catholic communities in the northwest and destabilize the Unionists. I'm sure of course the British would've caught on and that would seriously threaten peace on the entire island.

 

[fastmongrel]

Alien space bats transport the British out and the Irish in and what happens the Protestant majority sits there and does nothing. How about the Troubles times ten and it turns into the Irish Armies Invasion of Russia. The UK government wouldnt need to bitchslap the Irish it would just need to wait a few weeks and go back in and scrape the Irish Army off the walls.

 

[sparky42]

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned the possibility of using nonconventional means of support. If I remember correctly, Exercise Armageddon also suggested using Irish commandos to conduct covert guerrilla operations against the Unionist government in Northern Ireland without a formal declaration of war. This was supposed to draw the RUC and possibly the British Army away from the Catholic communities in the northwest and destabilize the Unionists. I'm sure of course the British would've caught on and that would seriously threaten peace on the entire island.

The Irish Rangers were only started up in the Late 60's/early 70's as in part a reaction to the Troubles. They were trained in the US Rangers, so how would that play out in terms on timing. Even with that the Rangers are only about 100 at the time.

Before the Rangers I think you'd only have conventionally trained troops, so how effective they would be for this type of engagement I don't know.

 

[theirishdreamer]

Hmmm

A British withdrawal from NI was discussed by the UK Government (Labour anyway) and Irish government were very very worried they just might walk away rather than pay the cost of holding it.
Result. Bloodbath.
Both sides discussed alo of crazy stuff during that period. Sometimes i wonder what they were smoking. Mainly because ROI doesnt want the North back for several reasons mainly to do with internal politics and economics.

 

[yulzari]

English Independence nationalists have suggested NI be given over to Scotland as the issues are between the Irish and Scots. The emigrant english population of the Republic having had no more problem coming to terms with the independent Republic than the irish emigrant population in England have with England.

Now re-run the suggestion where the Irish army squares up to the Scottish army.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

I am with Death on this one.

An honest-to-God war with Britain isn't some attempt a playing big to win big, it is a suicide attempt, there is no guarantee the military would even attempt such a mad thing, even if they had to disobey Dublin to do so.

 

[deathscompanion1]

English Independence nationalists have suggested NI be given over to Scotland as the issues are between the Irish and Scots. The emigrant english population of the Republic having had no more problem coming to terms with the independent Republic than the irish emigrant population in England have with England.

Now re-run the suggestion where the Irish army squares up to the Scottish army.

Why would the Scots want NI?

They will have a large minority which feels completely abandoned and screwed over and may want to join the Republic because they no longer get the benefits of the union.

They will have to pay the costs of security.

They will have to deal with the shit that comes weekly whenever someone decided to do something stupid and everyone else decided it's their patriotic duty to be even stupider.

Oh and they cant go on with their revival of Scottish culture apart from on the regional level which is what they already do.

 

[sparky42]

I am with Death on this one.

An honest-to-God war with Britain isn't some attempt a playing big to win big, it is a suicide attempt, there is no guarantee the military would even attempt such a mad thing, even if they had to disobey Dublin to do so.

They wouldn't/couldn't, like I said I think it would be another Irish solution of stall like crazy throwing up all the papered over flaws as excuses for not being able to deploy while the Daíl/National Media ripped the Taoiseach to pieces over any attempt to send troops into NI.

 

[sparky42]

English Independence nationalists have suggested NI be given over to Scotland as the issues are between the Irish and Scots. The emigrant english population of the Republic having had no more problem coming to terms with the independent Republic than the irish emigrant population in England have with England.

Now re-run the suggestion where the Irish army squares up to the Scottish army.

The ROI isn't going to force any solution to NI. That's the bottom line, SF and the more radical elements might float ideas and members of the Daíl may stand up and say things like "In the fullness of time a United Ireland will be achieved" or some such. But out side of SF/Dissidents no Irish politician means it. None of them would ever contemplating sending forces for a potential clash over the North.

It doesn't matter whether its the UK in total or Scotland that's involved (though as Death commented why would Scotland want to touch NI?) until the overwhelming majority (ie GFA+ levels) in NI support a movement towards the Republic, the Republic is going to stay out of it.

 

[Bee]

Elephant in the room

Assuming Britain defeats the Garda, what next?

Policing Northern Ireland alone had already proved to be a miserable task; occupying the South would be the same experience raised to another order of magnitude.

Any alternatives?

 

[deathscompanion1]

Assuming Britain defeats the Garda, what next?

Policing Northern Ireland alone had already proved to be a miserable task; occupying the South would be the same experience raised to another order of magnitude.

Any alternatives?

Plenty but academic as this whole scenario was never seriously considered by the army and most sensible politicians.

Even if it did probably reparations and other things the South would be impossible to occupy.