WI:Henry VIII Dies Jousting In 1510

Stateless

To everyone saying this would mean earlier Stuarts on the throne, no, it would mean earlier Stewarts on the throne. I realise the distinction may seem pedantic, but James VI/I was the first direct descendant of Margaret Tudor to use the French spelling, as he was of his father's house, the spelling having been changed by Matthew Stewart during a period in France.

EDIT: I will concede that Mary, Queen of Scots, probably had her name spelled interchangeably, but she was, at least, born a Stewart, which won't even happen ITTL.
 

Elfwine

Velasco said:
James II married Mary of Guelders, daughter of Duke Arnold and Catherine of Cleves (great-aunt of Anne of Cleves). Her father and brother fought over the Duchy, her father eventually sold it to Burgundy. Her nephew Charles was the last duke: a prisoner for some years, he escaped and took Guelders back. When he died without issue, he was suceeded by his cousin Duke William of Cleves (Queen Anne's brother) but the Habsburgs disputed and eventually took it back.

Here James IV might make a more sensible heir than William.
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None of that is Lancasterian, though. Might have been unclear in asking, but that was the issue.
 

Dr. Waterhouse

Mary in 1510 is 13. Marriages and betrothals before 15 are voidable by either spouse once they reach that age. At one point in the interminable marriage negotiations between Ferdinand and Henry VII over Katherine of Aragon and Prince Henry, The Prince basically says he was forced into the situation and disavows it. Point being, abducting and wedding Mary in a hurry before the progress from Edinburgh arrives would produce in itself a legally questionable marriage. Add to that the still further tenuous situation in supporting the claim of a younger sister against an elder.

Also, Buckingham at least is happily married in 1510.

And also by this point Mary is promised to the future Charles V. He may not have much to say in terms of domestic politics, but it would matter to Mary. She might not be terribly enthusiastic about trading a prestigious international match for a jumped-up lesser noble so that her claim to the throne could be used to prosecute a war against her sister's. So one of these lesser families that would thus use Mary would on top of everything else likely have to force her participation or keep her hidden. Not a recipe for practical success.


Welshroyalhistory said:
Its pretty inconceivable to think that there wouldn't be at least one noble in the whole of England who wouldn't marry Princess Mary, Henry's younger sister and claim the English throne as an alternative to England being swallowed by Scotland.

The logical option would be Henry Courtenay, Mary and Henry's 1st cousin and the son of their mother Elizabeth of York's younger sister Catherine.
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Velasco

Elfwine said:
None of that is Lancasterian, though. Might have been unclear in asking, but that was the issue.
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James I married Joan Beaufort, niece of Henry IV and great-aunt of Henry VII. A superior claim to that of Buckingham, which was taken seriously enough (thanks to his extensive lands and fortune) for him to be executed by Henry VIII on trumped up charges.

IIRC Henry was forced, by his father, to secretly disavow his betrothal to Katherine, but at the same time consummation of a betrothal could suffice to make it a proper marriage...I wouldn't be surprised if Charles V, with his own Lancastrian heritage, claimed the throne as his own and by right of his "wife".
 

Elfwine

What Henry VIII took as serious enough to justify execution - given the Countess of Salisbury in 1541 - hardly seems a fair measure, though.

Honestly, I think the main issue James faces is the issue of being a foreigner - I think the issue of whether or not one could inherit was something people felt ambiguous.

Sure, he could press it, but once it gets to that, it gets to who has supporters.
 

mcdnab

Actually there is evidence that Buckingham was guilty of the offences which he was charged with.
As to Margaret Pole - Henry treated her with exceptional favour - granted a pension on his accession, restored to the Earldom of Salisbury and lands in 1513, appointed governess to the Princess Mary etc.

There was a brief fall from favour when Buckingham fell due to the marriage of his son to her daughter. She resented the Boleyn marriage and was fiercely protective of the Princess Mary.
Her son's exile, possible involvement with the Pilgrimage of Grace and his harsh criticism of Henry and his divorce was really the prompt for her death (whether she was guilty of anything other than remaining a devout Roman Catholic is debateable).
Back to Henry's death in 1510 - then Margaret is undoutably going to be considered the rightful heir - there may be some support for an alternative male heir but they are few and far between - see below.
Chief Yorkist heir after the Tudor dynasty would be Anne Lady Howard (who was childless) and then her sister Catherine of York and her son Henry Courtney.
There are no really strong Lancastrian claimants at all
Buckingham's claim was via his grandmother Margaret Beaufort in the Lancastrian line and his descent from Edward III's youngest son in a female line - he might regard himself as having a chance but he is not in a particularly strong position to a) take the throne b) the senior Lancastrian heir and more importantly c) hold it for any length of time.

Personally I suspect Margaret wins and Parliament (rather like at the time of Mary's marriage to Philip of Spain) ensures James IV can not interfer too much and does not receive the Crown Matrimonial.
The effect of Margaret's accession on their relatively successful marriage might be interesting though.
Mary Tudor becomes even more marriageable given Margaret's early failures at producing a living heir especially after the death of Prince Arthur later in 1510 assuming it still happens

Tudor succession 1510
1)Margaret Tudor
2) Arthur Stewart Duke of Rothesay (b1509)
3) Mary Tudor
Descendants of Edward IV:
1) Anne of York, Lady Howard (d1511) No surviving issue
2) Catherine of York, Countess of Devon
3) Henry Courtenay
4) Margaret Courtenay
5) Bridget of York
Descendants of Richard Duke of York
1) Margaret Plantagenet Lady Pole
2) Henry Pole
3) Reginald Pole
4) Geoffrey Pole
5) Arthur Pole
6) Ursula Pole
7) Anne St Leger, Lady Ros (Daughter of Anne of York)
(her children numbered around 11)
18) Edmund de la Pole (son of Elizabeth of York)
19) Humphrey de la Pole
20) William de la Pole
21) Richard de la Pole
22) Catherine de la Pole
After that you would have the descendants of Isabel sister of Richard Duke of York
Henry Bourchier 2nd Earl of Essex
and his nephew
Walter Devereux, 9th Baron Ferrers of Chartley
The Lancastrian descent
Senior heir general of John of Gaunt (discounting the Beaufort's)
Manuel of Portugal
Senior heir general of John of Gaunt if you count the Beauforts as legitimate
Margaret Spencer Lady Carey
 

Pericles

I have 3 scenarios:
A)Margaret ascends to the throne with James IV as her husband and supported by France.
B) The Duke of Buckingham usurps the throne and marries Princess Mary(not OTL Bloody Mary)
C)With the support of Catherine of Aragon, Mary ascends to the throne and marries Charles V.
Which is the most plausible?
 

mcdnab

Ineritance by a woman was considered the largest possible disaster - a woman's realm was considered like her property a dower that would pass to her husband's control on her marriage - the death of Henry is going to unsettle the usual order of things and will cause significant disruption.
Power will fall to influential members of the late King's council and ranking church figures and much will depend on who they decide to back.
Margaret is the obvious option - she is an adult, married to a reigning sovereign and legally the heir - forward thinkers will like her late father believe England will be the supreme power in any relationship between the two realms.
So here's my take on your three scenarios
a) is the most likely - Margaret was intelligent and effective (far more so than she is often given credit for largely due to her gender and her rather complicated marital exploits after James' death) - the council will probably push for significant limitations on James' ability to influence English affairs - whether they will be succesful is debateable.
Two issues the new Queen will inherit the throne after only a few years in Scotland - she is still regarded as English (in her later life Henry distrusted her largely as their relationship was poor but he considered her to have gone native and too Scots for his tastes forgetting her English Tudor loyalties) that is a big advantage, she has proved herself fertile but only has one living child at this point but at least it is a boy.
Problems - James IV will be deeply distrusted by the English, the English Court will fear his dominance of his wife and fear he will appoint scotsmen to posts about the new court.
Their position may weaken if Prince Arthur of Scots dies as in OTL.

b) Buckingham may believe himself to have a claim and may attempt something - but 1) he is already married with several children and has been for over a decade and a divorce would be long and complicated 2) getting out of his marriage would probably alienate relations he would need on side to claim the throne and 3) his fall out with Henry VIII post dates 1510 and the delay in Henry producing an heir may have fuelled his ambition which won't happen in this tl.
c) Catherine of Aragon's influence as a childless Queen dowager is going to be minimal. The people who will decide will be the late King's council they may be tempted to proclaim Mary as Queen Regnant - given her age their influence will be more influential - but deciding her marriage will be a complex issue and they may want to avoid a foreign match and the threat of foreign domination - choosing her will almost certainly mean war with Scotland.
 

Pericles

mcdnab said:
Ineritance by a woman was considered the largest possible disaster - a woman's realm was considered like her property a dower that would pass to her husband's control on her marriage - the death of Henry is going to unsettle the usual order of things and will cause significant disruption.
Power will fall to influential members of the late King's council and ranking church figures and much will depend on who they decide to back.
Margaret is the obvious option - she is an adult, married to a reigning sovereign and legally the heir - forward thinkers will like her late father believe England will be the supreme power in any relationship between the two realms.
So here's my take on your three scenarios
a) is the most likely - Margaret was intelligent and effective (far more so than she is often given credit for largely due to her gender and her rather complicated marital exploits after James' death) - the council will probably push for significant limitations on James' ability to influence English affairs - whether they will be succesful is debateable.
Two issues the new Queen will inherit the throne after only a few years in Scotland - she is still regarded as English (in her later life Henry distrusted her largely as their relationship was poor but he considered her to have gone native and too Scots for his tastes forgetting her English Tudor loyalties) that is a big advantage, she has proved herself fertile but only has one living child at this point but at least it is a boy.
Problems - James IV will be deeply distrusted by the English, the English Court will fear his dominance of his wife and fear he will appoint scotsmen to posts about the new court.
Their position may weaken if Prince Arthur of Scots dies as in OTL.

b) Buckingham may believe himself to have a claim and may attempt something - but 1) he is already married with several children and has been for over a decade and a divorce would be long and complicated 2) getting out of his marriage would probably alienate relations he would need on side to claim the throne and 3) his fall out with Henry VIII post dates 1510 and the delay in Henry producing an heir may have fuelled his ambition which won't happen in this tl.
c) Catherine of Aragon's influence as a childless Queen Dowager is going to be minimal. The people who will decide will be the late King's council they may be tempted to proclaim Mary as Queen Regnant - given her age their influence will be more influential - but deciding her marriage will be a complex issue and they may want to avoid a foreign match and the threat of foreign domination - choosing her will almost certainly mean war with Scotland.
Click to expand...

I think Catherine may be pregnant with Henry, Duke of Cornwall, at this time. It would only become obvious later. However, the baby Prince could survive due to butterflies in this TL. Let's at least acknowledge the possibility.
 

mcdnab

If the joust in question is the one in early January (when the king wasn't injured) then Catherine was indeed pregnant (she miscarried later in the month) Henry Duke of Cornwall was born in 1511.

In this scenario you would probably have a period of a week or so between the King's death and the birth of a dead child.
 

Pericles

mcdnab said:
If the joust in question is the one in early January (when the king wasn't injured) then Catherine was indeed pregnant (she miscarried later in the month) Henry Duke of Cornwall was born in 1511.

In this scenario you would probably have a period of a week or so between the King's death and the birth of a dead child.
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CCornwall was alive at birth but died 12 days later.
 

mcdnab

Sorry wasn't clear in 1510 Catherine misccarried a girl at the end of January.
Henry Duke of Cornwall was born in 1511 dying as you said a few days later.
 
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