WI: Germany won the battle of the Bulge

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Gaius Julius Caesar, Oct 10, 2007.

  1. Gaius Julius Caesar Veni, vidi, vici

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    Imagine that the Germans smashed the 101st in Bastogne and that they reached Antwerp and cut the allied forces in two, just like Hitler had wanted. Would it be possible for Germany to win the war? or would the allies smashed them just like it happened in our history? :rolleyes:
     
  2. rudebadger Well-Known Member

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    Without control of the air the Wehrmacht is going to get kicked in the head by the RAF and USAAF.

    Any gains that they've made won't keep for very long. Just because they managed to split the Allied line doesn't mean that they could have held that corridor open from Patton's attacking 3rd Army or resupply under constant Allied air attacks.

    Concerning taking Antwerp, did Hitler have any plans in place to reinforce and resupply if successful?
     
  3. Gaius Julius Caesar Veni, vidi, vici

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    well, I believe that he wanted it because the allies could use it as a supply harbour instead of Le Havre. But I don't know for certain if Walcheren(southern peninsula of Zeeland) was already liberated by that time. it was kept by German forces for a long time...But isn't there a chance that maybe a victory in the battle of the bulge would've given the Germans the extra time to produce there jetfighter and then win the aircontrol back?or was it to late by any means?:confused:
     
  4. Dave Howery laughs at your pain

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    The Germans would have lost more men than they did in OTL.... IIRC, several of the units in the battle were pulled out later and sent east to fight the Russians, who had launched a major offensive... in this POD, those units might not be around anymore, and the Russians would move ahead faster... but so would the Allies in the west...
     
  5. Initiation Well-Known Member

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    I think it would have probably made little difference possibly even making the war shorter. With vast numbers of German troops exposed US and UK forces could easily encircle/cut off the army leaving Western Germany even more exposed to attack. Once the fog clears there is going to be no way for Germany to stop the aeriel bombardment of their positions and supply lines though.

    The only advantage that it may have caused would have been with the port at Antwerp being knocked out for a few more months leaving allied supply lines dangerously overstretched.
     
  6. Simon Darkshade Well-Known Member

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    It would put a large amount of German forces in the West on the wrong side of the Rhine to be either cut off and destroyed on the ground or pounded by the small matter of Allied air power. It was far too late for Germany.
    As others have said, if anything, this has the potential to shorten the war somewhat.

    Even if they make a go of it for longer in the West, there is still the small matter of the Red Army coming from the East.
    Even if they manage to hold it back, a most unlikely task, then we see more of Germany being burnt down and bombed from the air. If they hold out long enough, there may even be the consideration of a bucket of sunshine.
     
  7. Prinz Richard Eugen Second Imperial Reich

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    Germany could have thrown the Western Allies out of France and back into Britian and it wouldn't have given them victory in WWII. The Western Allies would have kept bombing Germany and preventing them from developing sufficent "wonder weapons" to affect the war. By December 1944 the German armaments ouyput was based on using up current supplies. They could assemble tanks and aircraft from existing parts but insufficent raw materials were making it to the factories to continue the neccessary output of armaments. Continued bombing would assure this situation would not 9improve.

    As the Germans pushed the Western Allies further, their troops would run out of supplies (as they did in OTL) and would be moving further from the real problem - the Soviets. Even if the Western Front magically disappeared and the German forces were transfered to the Eastern Front, the Red Army would overwhelm the Germans on their own.
     
  8. Gaius Julius Caesar Veni, vidi, vici

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    okey. say that the germans win it and still loose the war. they hold the allies out of Germany longer because they have to distroy the troops in the corridor to Antwerp first. could it happen that the Americans trow an a-bomb on the Ruhr? remember: if they do, the east of the Netherlands would be taken with it (including Dieren).would they sacrificed somany innocent lives, even if they where Dutch?
     
  9. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator

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    Difference?

    The USSR meets the Western Allies at the Rhine instead of the Elbe. (Not that the offensive ever had a prayer of succeeding.)

    Hitler using all the carefully hoarded Wermacht reserve armor against the Bulge in a hopeless, pointless, offensive should have been the last straw for the German High Command. If there was ever a question on how crazy Hitler had become, the Bulge Offensive answered it.
     
  10. Thande Brexit Out Now, Funk Soul Brother

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    The status quo at the German surrender makes no difference; the Allies and Soviets had already agreed the occupation zones by that point. Remember that there were American troops in what became East Germany and Czechoslovakia at the time of the German surrender, and they just withdrew afterwards.
     
  11. Amerigo Vespucci Not lurking since Dec. 2002

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    I wouldn't be so pessimistic as the Rhine. The Weser, perhaps.
     
  12. Amerigo Vespucci Not lurking since Dec. 2002

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    I wouldn't say that it's entirely irrelevant. Soviet occupation, no matter how brief, allows the Soviet Union to install more "friendly" local government as was done in Berlin before Allied government took over. Even more importantly, it allows the Soviet Union far greater access to German research laboratories and factories. Much more information and industrial machinery can be transshipped east than in OTL. In the medium/long term, that's going to hurt West Germany and help the Soviet Union.
     
  13. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator

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    I didn't mean that the Soviets would control the whole of Germany post war, just that all that would change, even if the Offensive worked beyond even Hitler's vision, is where the Allies met, not the outcome of the war.
     
  14. Gaius Julius Caesar Veni, vidi, vici

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    so all of you say that a German victory in the Ardennes won't affect the war at all? no problems with the forces in Flandern and Holland surrounded and the loss of a strategically important city like Antwerp? I think that a victory of the Germans would've greatly influence the allies. Panic could break because of a second defeat in less than a half year. and even worse; there could be even greater tensions between the Americans and the Brits. even in real life Ike, Patton and Monty where arguing amongst each other. and if this would've happened the soviets capture the whole of Germany and the north of the Netherland, perhaps even the southern Netherlands and Belgium; which results in a Communist Northern Europe. Maybe farfetched but still...
     
  15. Markus Banned

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    Unless there is an ASB-intervention Germany can NOT win the Battle. The German units were almost all under strength, the quality of the infantry totally sucked, air power was non existent and only a handful of divisions were motorized.

    Compare that to the Allied side:
    The Allies had many more divisions, almost all of them were full strength, all were motorized, the average soldier was way better trained than his german counterpart and plenty of airpower is available to them.

    If the Germans continue to advance, the allied air forces will smash their LOCs, the mobile allied units will counterattack and cut the Germans off. Game over!

    Bastonge is particularly meaningless. It was simply bypassed and did not delay the German advance at all. By the way, the units advancing near Bastonge were going the wrong way anyway. The SS-units further north were supposed to lead, but they stalled quickly.
     
  16. Dave Howery laughs at your pain

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    we haven't been saying that... we've been saying that the Germans would be cut off and run out of fuel/ammo, be hammered by the allied air forces, and be killed/captured in much greater numbers than in OTL, thus shortening the war....
     
  17. Gaius Julius Caesar Veni, vidi, vici

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    Thats not completely true. In Bastogne all the roads that run trough the Ardennes came together. so it was important as a crossroad. And had Bastogne been captured the German troops that besieged it could've been transmitted to another zone. and if the Germans used a Blitzskrieg technique, ofcourse changed for a war without much of an airforce. they could use the element of surprise they had to run over the enemy and create panic.
     
  18. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator

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    Not at all. If the Germans managed to win at the Bulge,there would have been one of two results.

    1. The Red Army gains more ground in Germany, perhaps ensuring that political leaders less embracing of the West are the ones left in charge when the occupation begins. This might alter the course of post-war Germany with minor spin off effects on NATO (this is very unlikely, but possible). Overall, no big deal. The agreement on the post-war occupation zones was already in place, and Stalin had a surprisingly good record on honoring the broad strokes of such agreements.

    2. The German Army, exposed on ground it had already demonstrated it couldn't hold against the Allies when it had three YEARS to prepare, is torn to shreds by Jagerbombers and the overwhelming combat power that the Allies can bring to bear, leaving fewer men to hold the Rhine barrier. As a result the Allies cross into Germany using the southern route (that was abandonned IOTL because of the successes up North) as well as the Northern one. The Allies stop roughly 30 miles from Berlin (likely resulting in Patton being relieved for gross insubordination) and allow the Red Army the glory (and 100,000 casualties) from taking Berlin. Allied forces manage to scoop up a few more trinkets (V-2's, Me-262's, etc.) since they have taken a bt more ground. Overall the Soviets are delayed a few months in developing the MiG-15 and their early rocket program. No big deal.

    Overall the Bulge Offensive was asinine. Even a maximum victory meant nothing in the long run. There was no chance of a serious rift between the U.S. & the UK, whatever Hitler (and the History Channel) imagined. Mongomery might have pushed his luck & demanded he be given overall Allied command (which had less than zero chance of happening) and wind up getting replaced by Wavell or Brooke, although Monty was almost certainly far too politically astute to push that particular issue.

    The units that the Wermacht & Waffen SS lost in the Ardennes could have delayed the Red Army for a few weeks, perhaps even a month, & allowed tens of thousands more German civilians to escape the tender mercies of the NKVD and certain elements of the Red Army by crossing into the Western Occupation Zones. That would have been a far better use for the troops that were thrown away in Operation Wacht am Rhein.
     
  19. Markus Banned

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    So it would be an important crossraod not located in the important sector.

    That would be one second or third rate infantry division.

    Mobile warfare is not possible if the opponent has air superiority and the Allies had air supremacy.
     
  20. Gaius Julius Caesar Veni, vidi, vici

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    Well. Maybe you guys are all right and the Battle of the Bulge was just a last hope of a crazed dictator. But I still tend to think the effect of a new German victory would've changed the war. Perhaps because I live in Holland and we are still slightly afraid of what might've happened if the Nazi's won the war and this would still be Nazi-territory:eek:. Thanks for the replies, by the way