WI: Germany invaded Sweden in 1940

[arneanka74]

What would happen if Sweden were to be invaded by Germany in 1940?

My opinion is that there would rather easy to overrun the Swedish army, but in order to occupy Sweden, vast forces would have to be commited to occupation duties.

After all, we had an army of 400 000 men in 1940 according to:
http://www-solar.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/~aaron/sweeds.html

What do you think? Would it be an easy task to invade the 4th largest country in Europe by then? (Soviet, Germany and Spain being larger)

 

[Grey Wolf]

The combined forces of the Swedish Navy and Airforce would have put up a better display than the Norwegians did, and the Germans would need to either get lucky with their divebombers against the coastal defence ships, hit them with u-boats, or defeat them in a full-pitched naval battle

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[arneanka74]

The combined forces of the Swedish Navy and Airforce would have put up a better display than the Norwegians did, and the Germans would need to either get lucky with their divebombers against the coastal defence ships, hit them with u-boats, or defeat them in a full-pitched naval battle

I do agree with you, however, wasn't the Swedish Army in a rather poor condition by 1940? Almost no tanks and facing an experienced enemy in the form of Wehrmacht, surely the Swedish losses would be devastating?

 

[lonestarr]

I dont see a real problem there. If we managed to crush France single handedly, with arguably the most modern army at that time, i dont see any threat posted by Sweden. Once the big cities of Sweden are occupied, stockholm, göteborg, malmö etc., i dont see how sweden would pose any significant challenge to the wehrmacht.

germany would then just setup a nice fascist nordic puppet if needed, maybe including norway and denmark. maybe something along the lines of a Vichy of the North, or maybe a puppet at the mercy of germany, like the italian social republic.

might even be of substantial help against the soviets.

 

[arneanka74]

I dont see a real problem there. If we managed to crush France single handedly, with arguably the most modern army at that time, i dont see any threat posted by Sweden. Once the big cities of Sweden are occupied, stockholm, göteborg, malmö etc., i dont see how sweden would pose any significant challenge to the wehrmacht.

germany would then just setup a nice fascist nordic puppet if needed, maybe including norway and denmark. maybe something along the lines of a Vichy of the North, or maybe a puppet at the mercy of germany, like the italian social republic.

might even be of substantial help against the soviets.

Surely Sweden would fall to the Wehrmacht, but the forces required to occupy and control Sweden would still be huge. Furthermore, opening a new front to the USSR could become a serious problem since it would not be a new front, Finland attacked the USSR, but only a drainage of men to control a country bigger than Poland.

Take in regard that the Social Democrats of Sweden recieved over 50 % of the votes in the election in 1940, hence submission to the Germans would be almost non-existent. There's a reason that the nazis did not make it to the Swedish Riksdag.

Furthermore, the only land connection to Sweden would come from Norway, which implies that in order to invade Sweden, the Wehrmacht would have to transport enough soldiers to Norway by boat, making them a great target for the Royal Navy.

Didn't Sweden also have some kind of navy capable of at least posing a threat to an amphibious assault on southern Sweden?

 

[joea64]

Back when Command magazine was publishing, it had an alternate-history game (XTR did a lot of those) about "Operation One-Two", the planned invasion of Sweden in 1943. The accompanying article said that it almost did go off, but was called off due to, among other things, the Allied invasion of Italy. I believe the game also had a scenario for an invasion of Sweden during the 1940 campaign, and the article had a lot of data on the Swedish armed forces of the period.

 

[lonestarr]

Surely Sweden would fall to the Wehrmacht, but the forces required to occupy and control Sweden would still be huge. Furthermore, opening a new front to the USSR could become a serious problem since it would not be a new front, Finland attacked the USSR, but only a drainage of men to control a country bigger than Poland.

Take in regard that the Social Democrats of Sweden recieved over 50 % of the votes in the election in 1940, hence submission to the Germans would be almost non-existent. There's a reason that the nazis did not make it to the Swedish Riksdag.

Furthermore, the only land connection to Sweden would come from Norway, which implies that in order to invade Sweden, the Wehrmacht would have to transport enough soldiers to Norway by boat, making them a great target for the Royal Navy.

Didn't Sweden also have some kind of navy capable of at least posing a threat to an amphibious assault on southern Sweden?

Valid points possibly, and i have been arguing from an arm chair general's point of view.

but considering that you can almost see sweden from the german baltic coast, i dont think it'd be much of a problem really, regarding coastal and naval defense. by 1940 the Bismarck and other large warships were completed, and if hitler was seriously thinking about launching seamammal, the command saw at least minimal success chances.

and the swedish navy itself was probably quite old. considering the superiority of german battleships and devastating airpower, i doubt it would pose much a threat all in all.

for a country as large as sweden i would say a puppet government a la vichy would be set up. and there were quite some swedish nazis at the time, i bet you'd find people more than willing to lead a puppet government and keep the population under control. maybe germany would directly occupy the places that held the famous swedish ores, but leave the rest to a swedish puppet. while i think about it, the swedish industry might even contribute quite a deal to the axis war effort.

 

[Monty Burns]

for a country as large as sweden i would say a puppet government a la vichy would be set up. and there were quite some swedish nazis at the time, i bet you'd find people more than willing to lead a puppet government and keep the population under control.

True, they'd find a puppet regime. However, it would be as stable as the Nazi puppets in all the other occupied lands.

While i think about it, the swedish industry might even contribute quite a deal to the axis war effort.

Well, don't overestimate Swedish industrial power. Furthermore, the industrial contribution might be offset due to sabotage and soldiers required for occupation duties. On the other side, neutral Sweden - as neutral Switzerland - can produce without supression or occupation forces and will have no aerial attacks by the western Allies. I'd say neutral Sweden would be better considering industry.

 

[chris N]

To begin with the invasion of Sweden by Germany would create all sorts of problems for the Germans. To begin with the Swedish military establishment was a lot larger than the Norwegian one. Sweden did have tanks. They had purchased Czech designs and had already begun production of them. Remember a lot of German weapons were first produced in Sweden.

To have any reasonable chance of success the Germans would have had to have taken a lot less naval loses during the campaign in Norway and would have to take a risk that the Swedish government would not destroy or heavily damage the iron ore mines. It would be a big risk and one that would require a diverison of resources from any campaign against the West.

 

[vitemajoren]

The mines would have been destroyed, there were
complete plans and explosives to do that and Hitler
knew it.

 

[von Adler]

It really depends on how and when the Germans do it.

If they do it at the same time as Norway and Denmark, they will have a lot of problems. Their navy is not big enough to take out Sweden as well as Nroway in one big strike - Norway was extremely lucky, Sweden has far more population, mobilisation centras and industry inland, and most ports are protected by archipelagos that requires manouvering in narrow channels - which takes time.

If they do it at the same time as Norway and Denmark, both Norway and Denmark have the ability to fight longer and harder. Some Danes actually retreated to Sweden in April 1940, convinced Sweden was under attack and they could help even if Denmark fell. The Norwegian 1. Division retreated into Sweden in April and was interned. If Sweden is at war, it will be re-supplied and ready for action soon again, which means the Germans cannot advance up the Lillehammer valley to relieve the troops at Trondheim.

The Swedish army was not a superb force in 1940, but it was way, way, way better than the Norwegian army, and the Germans had serious problems with the Norwegians at Narvik.

A regular Swedish soldier had at least 240 days training 1940 (the Norwegians had 85), more if he was an NCO or an officer (Norway, 85 days here too). Most had done at least 100 extra days by then. Sweden had hand grenades, mines, AT mines, AT guns, AT rifles, and a handful of SMGs in each regiment. Norway had none of these.

Sweden had roughly 400 000 men in the army, plus another 100 000 in the Home Guard. The army had plenty of LMGs, decent amounts of MGs, plenty of medium (81mm) mortars, decent AT capacity rather good amount of AA (lacking in heavy and light, but good amounts of 40mm bofors). The army had learned as much as it could from the Winter War and the volunteers there and had been training hard since November 1939.

Hard data, armour:
48 Strv m/37 2xMG armed tanks.
9 Strv m/21 and Strv m/21-29 MG armed tanks in depots.
2 Carden-Lloyd MG carriers in depots.
1 Renault NC-27 MG armed in depots.
16 Strv m/38 37mm gun armed tanks with 20 more (Strv m/39) being delivered.
3 Strv m/31 37mm gun armed tanks in depots.
1 Strv fm/31 37mm gun armed wheel/track tank in depot.
21 Pbil m/31 2xMG armed armoured cars.
10 Pbil m/31 37mm gun armed armoured cars.
2 Pbil fm/25 MG armed armoured cars in depot.
1 Pbil fm/25 37mm gun armed (SA18 from the NC-27) armoured car in depot.
15 Pbil m/39 20mm gun armed armoured cars with 30 more (Pbil m/40) being delivered.
5 Pbil m/41 20mm gun armed armoured cars.

In field units:
48 MG armed tanks.
16 gun armed tanks.
21 MG armed armoured cars.
30 gun armed armoured cars.

In depots and training units:
12 MG armed tanks
4 gun armed tanks
2 MG armed armoured cars
1 gun armed armoured car

Hard data, planes:
~50 Gloster Gladiator Mk II, armed with Swedish 4 8x63mm MGs and having radios and reflector sights.
12 CR.42 armed with 2 12,7x81mm automatic cannons.
20 Seversky EP-35, armed with 2 13,2x99mm automatic cannons and 2 8x63mm MGs, equipped with armour, reflector sights and radio. 40 more were on ships from USA heading for Sweden.
~50 Junkers Ju 86.
~45 Fokker C.V used for recon.
~35 Hawker Harts used for dive bombing.
1 Northrop A-17 with 39 on the production line.
12 Heinkel He 115A-2.
~45 Heinkel He 5.
6 Hawker Osprey.
8 Fi 156 Storch.

Plus a smattering of ambulance, liason, transport, school and other aircraft.

Hard data, artillery:
~100 ww1 vintage 75mm field cannons - 7,5cm Kan m/02.
190 modernised 75mm field cannons (10km+ range) - 7,5cm Kan m/02-10 and m/02-33.
44 modern 75mm field cannons (10km+ range) - 7,5cm Kan m/40.
150 old fixed recoil 84mm cannons (6km range) - 8,4cm Kan m/81.
156 ww1 vintage 105mm field howitzers (6km range) - 10,5cm Haub m/10.
24 ww1 vintage 105mm cannons (11km+ range) - 10,5cm Kan m/17 and M/19.
64 modern 105mm field howitzers (10km+ range) - 10,5cm Haub m/39 (this is the German 10,5 leFH18) and Haub m/49.
56 modern 105mm field cannons (16km+ range) - 10,5cm Kan m27-34 and m/34
~50 old fixed recoil 120mm field cannons (8km+ range) - 12cm Kan m/85
68 ww1 vintage 150mm field howitzers (7km range) - 15cm Poshaub m/06 and Haub m/19
16 modern 150mm field howitzers (11km range) - 15cm Haub m/38
12 ww1 vintage 210mm howitzers (10km range) - 21cm Haub m/17

There's also a lot of weapons that have been lent, given or sold to Finland during the winter war. The Finns started passing arms to Sweden in March 1940 when the peace came and gave almost everything back in April. If Sweden is attacked, I am sure some Finns will volunteer, and a lot of arms will be going the other way.

One of the main problems for the Germans in any invasion are the distances and the terrain.

There is a single air field in Skåne at this time. Even if the Germans capture it, the Bf 109E have a combat radius of about 300km at the time - it will not even cover all of Scania. The Germans cannot escort bombers to Stockholm from Scania, anywhere in Norway or Denmark!

Almost all roads are single-file gravel roads, with heavy forest on eash side. The border towards Norway is the most sparsely populated, heavily wooded and/or mountainous, with very little infastructure. The ports are protected by extensive archipelagos which are almost all mined and protected by coastal artillery - it takes time to navigate through the archipelagos - Weserübing surprises are almost impossible.

 

[von Adler]

Valid points possibly, and i have been arguing from an arm chair general's point of view.

but considering that you can almost see sweden from the german baltic coast, i dont think it'd be much of a problem really, regarding coastal and naval defense. by 1940 the Bismarck and other large warships were completed, and if hitler was seriously thinking about launching seamammal, the command saw at least minimal success chances.

and the swedish navy itself was probably quite old. considering the superiority of german battleships and devastating airpower, i doubt it would pose much a threat all in all.

for a country as large as sweden i would say a puppet government a la vichy would be set up. and there were quite some swedish nazis at the time, i bet you'd find people more than willing to lead a puppet government and keep the population under control. maybe germany would directly occupy the places that held the famous swedish ores, but leave the rest to a swedish puppet. while i think about it, the swedish industry might even contribute quite a deal to the axis war effort.

Eh, the absolutely shortest distance between Germany and Sweden - between Rügen and Lund, is about 100km.

The Swedish navy had some old ships, but also a lot of modern destroyers, submarines and MTBs. Above all they were masters of torpedo and mine warfare. The armour of Bismarck will not mean much when she runs into a minefield or even runs aground in the Swedish archipelagos. German fighters can't even reach Stockholm due to their short range and that is not even 2/3 of the country's length!

Sweden does have at least a decent-sized air force of its own - see my post earlier with hard data.

Yes, Germany can take Sweden. But before the invasion of France, it will take more resources than the Germans can afford to dedicate, unless they want to postpone the invasion of France. After May 1940, with Germany firmly in Norway and no enemy on land to fight, it is another issue.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

von Adler's point is the key. If Germany's invasion is separate from and after the invasions of Denmark and Norway then Sweden is doomed. Once there are a few German divisions and a panzer brigade or two already on the border Sweden doesn't have a chance.


Of course, there is always the possibility that this might convince Finland, on top of Ribbentrop-Molotov, to conclude that there really isn't anything to be gained by allying with Germany, despite the grievance against the USSR...

 

[mailinutile2]

I am afraid I do not agree that the Blitzkrieg principle could be adopted in Sweden, since the main targets (cities) would be too near to the places where the army is deployed.
Once turned into urban-clearing fighting, blitzkrieg looses its momentum.
however, I do not want to press the point very much.

My main objection is a political and diplomatic one.

In order to start an invasion of sweden in '40, from the political point of view, some sort of agreement with CCCP MUST be arranged.
In the event of a Molotov-VonRibbentrop-II pact, in order to get Sweden in the Geman area of influence, Finland should be given to the soviets.

the result would be finland annexion to CCCP (Karelo-Finnish SSR ?) or at least soviet troops pouring in Helsinki "to aid our fellow comrades under the capitalist heel".
Probably, no annexion on Bessarabia

 

[Markus]

The Swedes would have one very big problem: Their fighter a/c are few and obsolete, thus Me110 would be ok for long range escort missions. Without fighter cover daylight movement of ground and naval forces becomes difficult and dangerous, too difficult and dangerous as the Allies found out in Norway.

 

[von Adler]

The Swedes would have one very big problem: Their fighter a/c are few and obsolete, thus Me110 would be ok for long range escort missions. Without fighter cover daylight movement of ground and naval forces becomes difficult and dangerous, too difficult and dangerous as the Allies found out in Norway.

Sweden is a much bigger country than Norway. Even with Bf 110s, the Germans will have severe problems being everywhere, considering their lack of radars in 1940 and the few airfields in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

 

[The Vulture]

I think the war might have been a few months shorter, due to the Germans being that much more overextended.

 

[mattep74]

The swedish officercorps was riddled with progermans from the rank of colonels and up.

We sent 1/3 or our airforce to aid Finland in 39

We could defend ourselves against an attack in 1940, but not until we had fully equiped the army in 44.

Our antitankweapons were not existant and our tanks papers compaired to the germans

 

[superkuf]

The problem for Germany wouldn't be the Swedish military, but the Swedish geography. The cost to invade Sweden is high.

Just look at a map of Sweden. It is as big as Germany, but with far worse roads. Germany could fairly easy conquer the southern part of Sweden (Skane), which is close to Germany and flat farming country. But north of this starts forest country with few and small roads. Not good tank country. The potential for creating roadblocks is enormous.

German landings outside Skane would mean fighting through archipelagos and a navy that has prepared for archipelago warfare in decades. Bismark would be more than useless in this fight. Germany would not have any possibility to base troop-carrying ships in Swedish harbours like they did in Norway.

Even an invasion after 1940 would have problems. The border Sweden-Norway had few roads, which meant slow advance and difficult supply. Already by May 1940 Sweden had new costal fortresses in Skane ready to fire at Copenhagen harbour (the most probable starting point for the invasion). The planned attack in 1943 would have been an epic fail unless far more troops were diverted to Norway.

And let's assume that Germany wins. It means huge areas to occupy. Sweden was far from urbanised, so a lot of German troops would have to occupy "strategic" targets like Värnamo, Falun and Karlstad apart from the capital and the iron mines. If Germany kept 300-400 000 soldiers in Norway they would have to have at least the same amount in Sweden. That is a lot of soldiers that can't be used on the East front or in Africa.

During WW2 over 8000 Swedes fought on the Allied side (mainly as sailors, but one Swede ended up as a British Brigade General) and 200 on the German side. Sweden would be far from Yoguslavia, but it wouldn't be an obedient part of the Reich either. In short it is no wonder why Germany never attacked.

 

[von Adler]

While much of the old army leadership, the industrial elite, some of the academic elite and a few of the royal house were pro-German, I do not think it would mean that they would not fight if the Germans came. General Thörnell, the commander-in-chief was very pro-German, but he was also very patriotic and very loyal and carried out anti-German orders to their fullest extent.

Sweden sent 1/3 of the active fighter force, not 1/3 of the air force. 16 planes of ~150.

If the Germans have no other plans, as they did not between October 1941 and April 1941, they could easily take Sweden. Otherwise, it will cost them time, troops and resources.

Sweden had anti-tank mines, lots of 37mm bofors AT guns, molotov coctails, some AT rifles and AT ammunition for field guns and AA guns. Sweden is hardly tank terrain anyway. Sweden was much better equipped against armour than the Finns were, and they managed the Soviet armour just fine.

As for the tanks, Strv m/37 is comparable to Pz IB, Strv m/38 and m/39 to Pz IIIE and Pz 38(t). It is not until Pz IIIF and Pz IVD starts being a majority in the Pz Divs that the German armour is clearly superior tank for tank.