WI Dunkirk evacuation a complete failure for the Allies?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Saladan, Jun 25, 2009.

  1. Saladan Member

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    What if during the Dunkirk evacuation the Germans are able to successfully prevent the British and other Allied troops from returning to England and effectively cut them off? What kind of effects would this have on the war?
     
  2. Aleks Aleks

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    PM Halifax?

    Churchill resigns and Halifax becomes PM and negotiates a peace with Germany, one possibility. See "What If 2" for an essay on just this topic.
     
  3. Markus Banned

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    The Operation-that-shall-not-be-mentioned is still not possible, but get´s a much, much better bluff. And one can asssume that the loss of 200,000 trained and experienced soldiers will hurt the UK war effort in the years to come, provided what Aleks says does not happen.

    They need to rely much more and much sooner on colonial and commenwealth manpower and be more careful about where the send their men; Greece for example.
     
  4. ddtim Well-Known Member

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    the PM at that point was chamberlain, and he resigned over the fiasco in france and norway, because so many people saw it as a failiure. somehow i don't think that either halifax or churchill gain the position. people will want a leader that has had a military victory or two. any retired army people in the upper echelons of the conservative party.
     
  5. Astrodragon Coffee-seeking Dragon

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    No, Churchill was pm at the time of Dunkirk.
     
  6. ddtim Well-Known Member

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    really? hmm. well, i'll believe you.
    have checked. your right.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2009
  7. Germaniac Live from a Library Cubicle

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    The Sea Mammal operation is still not going to happen, however many people might be calling for Peace, I mean not a single bright spot in the war so far, Norway catastrophe, Poland a complete loss, and now the totol victory of germany over France! Those 200,000 Brits are more than the entire Africa campaign. Egypt will be much more vunerable and look to the Axis winning in the NOrth Africa Campaign, followed by a middle eastern Campaign

    No Free French forces of any real significance as 140,000 are now prisoners.
     
  8. lothaw Texan Nationalist

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    Yeah, I think Britain would almost have to fold their hand at this point. I don't see how Churchill could survive as Prime Minister after such a fiasco. Keep in mind he was more of a compromise leader than a popular leader and had yet to see Britain through the Battle of Britain.

    Halifax.. not sure if he'd be named, but even if Britain does fight on, even Italy suddenly looks to have an advantage in North Africa, you could see German and Italian paratroopers in Malta, and these would be yet more blows for the Empire to negotiate a peace.

    No, Sea Lion doesn't happen. Short of Germany spending the next five years building up their navy non-stop, there's just no way the Kreigsmarine could pull it off. Certainly siezing every civillian boat in sight suddenly doesn't look like a good idea in light of the revised Dunkirk.

    So peace probably would include the loss of Singapore, Burma, Egypt, Sudan and their middle east territories. The Empire would still be in tact as a great power and Germany is suddenly freed up to take on the Soviet Union by itself.

    Wonder how FDR would take this.
     
  9. jacobus Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the UK would have had to have made peace, no disrespect against its people intended, in fact if I was a Briton following the loss of the entire BEF in France I would be one of the people demanding that we end the war, only because the situation would be so bleak that only peace could save the country. It would buy time for Britain to bring troops from the Commonwealth and the US, to help repel Seelowe when it comes, which I assume it will anyway. By this time, you would almost have to be some kind of an idiot to believe Hitler would ever be satisfied with a Finlandized Britain. He wanted it all: the UK occupied, plundered,and its people disarmed and rounded up, his to punish, at his pleasure.
     
  10. wiking Member

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    Well, the Brits considered saving only 50,000 British soldiers as a success. So the Germans would somehow have to stop the entire force from fleeing, which means that there are going to be fewer troops to invade France and the pause will be much longer. However, by this point France is morally beaten, so Fall Rot was just the icing on the cake. It puts Britain in a much, much tougher position, and if they decide to fight on, then they are going to have far fewer men for the coming battles. The Italians would do better in North Africa, the Germans would have it easier in Greece, and the Japanese might be bolder in going after the British. All in all a massive loss to the Allies in every way.
     
  11. lothaw Texan Nationalist

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    Wonder how Mosley's group would be faring during this?
     
  12. Kome One Knight Stand

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    Seeing the paratroopers is one thing, the axis would lose the battle of malta if they tried this, invading crete gave heavy casualties, the malta operation is 5 times as large. The only chance of this working is if the Royal navy was sunk and malta starved tell the garrison was gone.

    Germany does not have a navy big enough for all of that.
     
  13. lothaw Texan Nationalist

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    They have the air power and the Regia Marina wasn't that outdated. As I said, Paratroopers a la IRL Crete. If the initial assault does fail, there's a good chance the Italians and Germans will sieze the Suez and you'd likely have Spain join the Axis for Gilbraltar. This would seal off the Mediterranian effectively.

    As for Burma and Singapore, you honestly don't think Japan's going to jump in when Britain's down on it's knees?
     
  14. bobbis14 Liberal backslider

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    How do you butterfly Hitler being a militarily incomputent idiot and not intervene in the war effort?
     
  15. lothaw Texan Nationalist

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    He really hadn't screwed anything up by this point.
     
  16. bobbis14 Liberal backslider

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    What about the whole "Holding back the panzas" thing?
     
  17. jacobus Well-Known Member

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    Maybe gathered together somewhere on a country estate belonging to a Mosleyite ariscocrat, and planning a Quisling shadow government, ready to assume power when Seelowe went forward. General J.F.C. Fuller might have worn two hats, as both their shadow Minister of Defence and shadow Minister for Magic. Hopefully he won't turn out to be a Voldemort puppet. Mosley would've made himself Fuehrer, of course, though Lady Mosley (Mitford) would have been a prettier face to show to the rest of the world. Lady Diana Mosley, Fuehrerette.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2009
  18. Typo Banned

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    He can't magically make it logistically possible for them to go forward
     
  19. bobbis14 Liberal backslider

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    He held back the order to attack
     
  20. FlyingDutchman Well-Known Member

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    The Italians/Germans taking North-Africa up to Suez is logistically close to impossible.
    IIRC they can at most supply 5 divisions from the ports in N-Africa untill they controll Alexandria.
    If you consider the Axis will also have to defend all those little ports on the coast, like Tobruk and everything valuable like Tripoli, they are not going to have much left to go onto any offense.
    To make matters worse their supplylines will be extremely long by the time they come anywhere near Alexandria. Much of their supplies will have travelled 1000+ km since arriving in N-Africa by the time it reaches their troops.

    Because of Dunkirk there's also the possibility there'll be no Allied intervention in Greece as another poster mentioned. If the British decide to play it safe and keep their forces in N-Africa, one of the consequences of a failed Dunkirk could be the complete destruction of all Italian forces in Libya by feb '41 or so, which would be too soon for any German intervention in N-Africa to have any lasting effect.

    Having Spain in the Axis is also not going to happen if only the BEF is lost. Hitler wanted to keep Vichy France a friend and one of the conditions of Spain joining the Axis were large parts of the (then) Vichy French colonies, apart from such large amounts of food and arms Germany wouldn't be able to supply them.
    IRL several tens of thousands of Spanish died during WWII of starvation IIRC. That was while having enormous imports from especially the US. How many Spanish are going to die without these?
    So essentially there's no chance of Spain joining the Allies.

    Besides, Spain was completely ruined thanks to the Civil War. No leader, short of an insane one and Franco is definitely not insane, is going to jump into a world war.