Hi,
I'm new. This timeline here (I've read a few others before) was such a great reading that I decided to register and post a comment on it.
It's really immersive and also educating. I learned so much about US domestic affairs and culture in the 50es and 60es when I looked up all the background characters that were unknown or obscure to me. The research on all these little details must have been tremendous work! As a foreigner who has to backcheck every detail to understand the unfortunate implications of every new step towards despair (Who was this Hoffa fellow again? Why was this Rand woman so famous?) I was positively surprised on the details that statichaos used to tell that story. I ended up reading this TL (simultanously with three languages of Wikipedia always at my fingertips) for a week and squealed in horror/delight at some of the turning points of the story.
As the previous poster, Shevek, mentioned, there would be massive effects outside of the US, and it would have been fun to read about those. Of course, I saw statichaos mentioning that he hadn't enough insight into every situation (like European or African politics) to make a persuading story. That's great, this way, there was no possibility to make an error, and as an abroad reader, I simply had to make sense of the few subtle hints - and they all made sense (like for example, society slowly accepting the US-expats in Europe after 6 years).
So far we have seen: The cultural movers of US have emigrated to Europe, establishing a rock+beat scene in Berlin, London, Paris. Berlin was a melting pot (on low heat
) in OTL, too, with the rest of Germany (including the capital Bonn) staying very conservative and more focused on forwording economic and industrial rebirth.
Nowhere in the Disney presidency I could find a note of a massive outcry in Western Europe - simply because there wouldn't be one (yet).
Since I'm from Germany, I think that this development is plausible: OTL German government of the old man Adenauer (1949-1961) was strictly conservative, and even more strictly anti-communist. The Kommunist Party was forbidden and their supporters "hunted" in a McCarthy style throughout the 1950es, which even included observing and outcasting their families, wifes and children. However, the Adenauer government was more lenient towards the cultural imports from the States. While the establishment would outright despise the "Quarrymen", Elvis, and the "horrible music", there would be no political activities against them. The society would not accept the expat artists and their art until way past the equivalent of '68, but a young, hip, underground scene would flourish. In OTL, the "American Cultural Imports" were condemned by the elder generations... e.g.: My parents, born shortly after the war ending, weren't allowed to wear jeans or drink a coke until they were grown up. Not even mentioning listening to subversive music. ITTL the american way would still sweep over Europe, but with the filmmakers and music scene living here, I expect them to influence us more. This influence would start a OTL-1968-like revolution in a more subtle way: earlier, softer, slower and more unnoticeable. At least, in Europe - the clash would be much more intense and even violent once the movement comes back to the USA, I imagine.
With all that, I don't see Disney affecting the German politics different than Eisenhower did: Adenauer gets reelected with secure majorities for two times, remilitarizes Germany in 1955, seeks strong bonds to the US and Western Europe, enters NATO, signs the European Community treaties, focuses on restarting the economy+industry, despises the social democratic party which he sees as potential traitors. He would be concerned about the US troubles... but still, that's internal affairs of a buddy-country, who would dare to critisize the saviour, the winner, the only one who could defend us against the red hordes? Also, the Berlin Wall would still be built in 1961: with West Berlin so attractive to the East German, they will flock across the border until they are forcibly stopped. I'm sure this will drive out many of the expats towards London and Paris, maybe other capitals.
There is a twist, though: Early in the 1950es, Adenauer started his good and deep relationship with the Israeli government of Ben Gurion - and this policy of historical debt towards Israel remained a top-priority state goal in OTL, up to the present. There are two possibilities IMO:
EITHER Adenauer might continue to maintain relations to the pro-communist Israel, out of Germanys historical debts. After Israel is more secure in the Soviet Camp, their Europe relationships will be strained, but Israel might succeed to benefit from BOTH Western Europes advances as well as from the Soviet Union support, strengthening their position against the US-fed arab countries, leading to their military success in the palestine wars (much like OTL).
OR Adenauer (and all NATO/Western Europe countries) break with Israel when they turn pro-USSR - this will even strengthen the USSR position within Israel, turning them to an anti-capitalist position. Totally depending on how much support they gain from the USSR, Israel might either lose the later wars with the Arabs, or hold their ground as in OTL, or even conquer their own oil sources in Syria/Iraq, which would benefit the USSR strategy and be a severe setback for the USA.
However, Konrad Adenauer leads the German administration until 1961, and his successor would still be Ludwig Erhard who was his secretary of economics before, and who would focus less on foreign affairs, more struggle with domestic reforms. The Stennis government could do what they want, Germany would just tag along. However, after Erhards first term in 1965, I expect him not to be reelected, and a left wing social democrat government takes the place. Here it will become interesting: Stennis would earn (hushed!) disapproval from a social-liberal German government of chancellor Brandt - yes, the same Brandt who started the first dialog with Eastern Germany - just five years later, and observed by a very sceptical Nixon.
Now, I'd like to speculate about Africa and France. France in the OTL-1950es had a very weak, unstable government until Charles de Gaulle entered the stage in 1958, forging a decolonialized, stable France.
Now, what I could imagine for statichaos' TL: The Soviet Union instigates the rebels in Algeria, but the Algerian Crisis and FNL movement never takes off: Not only can the French colonialists paint the Nationalist movement as "Islamist terror groups" (which would lead to increased interest in the CIA, who also fights against "negro-islamistic terrorism"). On top of that, the friendly policy towards the nationalist arab dictators in Egypt and other latent muslim countries leads to a US-friendly northern africa and middle east. Maybe, Islamism remains a "Negro Phenomenon", and islamisitic movements like in Iran never take off, leading to a more capitalist-oriented, nationalist and atheist middle east.
With the Algerian Independence Movement failing and no integrationist tendencies swapping over from the USA (as statichaos mentioned in his threads), the colonial empires in Africa are mostly not dissolved in 1960. The colonial countries in Europe (France, UK, fascist Portugal+Spain) hold their firm grip. Maybe Belgium can no longer hold back the liberty movement and grants political independence to Congo somewhen in the early 1960ies. As in OTL, this results in bloody wars and a Soviet meddling along the way - and either France or Britain crack down on Congo, arguing that the Negros aren't fit to govern themselves. This leads to a continued African colonization! I could also very well imagine an influx of Afro-Americans into the colonies, which leads to a) better education b) slow democratic progress c) ultimately the release of the colonies, but a looong way down road, maybe as late as 1989/90. In this timeline, Africa remains a dark place (pun not intended), but not because of civil wars and corrupt governments. Instead, "negro communist rebels" are fighting against the colonialist oppressors.
What does this mean for France? The left-wing, continental France (think: Paris) frowns at the fascist US. The right-wing oriented Algerian France however thinks more positively about the US, and the French colonies in Africa (as well as the British) mostly imitate the US system of segregation and crack-downs where necessary. Since Algeria isn't so much of a problem, the governments in France are (a bit) more stable, and the Fifth Republic is never founded. Charles de Gaulle remains in Algeria - which changes the timeline completely for France! The Fourth Republic endures into the 1960es or even longer, without gaining political stability, they remain part of NATO, they don't shake off the much-critized "american influence" on their culture, and they might take a more critical stance towards the european unification.
I don't expect much change towards OTL in Great Britain however: The conservative governments there tolerate the american immigrants/dissidents and are mildly displeased about the US segregation (while concerned to manage their colonies without too much bloodshed). Maybe they take a more open stance towards the european unification - they always do the opposite of France
Spain and Portugal and Greece: Fascist until the late 1970s. Salador and Franco won't do any different than in OTL, if no-one disturbs there.
Italy is a tough call: I expect a rapid, colorful succession of hardliner-conservatives (pro-US), reformers (pro-EC) and a few sprinkles of socialist movements in between (pro Socialism light, like in Hungary/Yugoslawia)
The rest of free Europe might feel inclined to join the European process earlier because they feel disgusted by the US.
Meanwhile in Soviet Russia... I imagine the system is still oppressing, like the Disney/Stennis-US and like in OTL. Some butterfly effects are definitly working there, too, but if they are to a positive of negative end - who knows?
I don't expect statichaos to include any of these thoughts into his official timeline, but I'm interested it there is either a nod or a disagreement on a point somewhere.
Shevek23 said:
But if the USSR is doing better, there's more resources available. If they are attracting Western European trust, credits, perhaps investment, then perhaps inviting in the West Germans, the French, perhaps even the British to get involved in the Soviet space effort might be in the cards?
Nope. No chance for that before the 1970es start - too much anticommunism around. As detailed above, I expect only minor changes of the political role of Europe in the 1950s and 1960s. But I imagine a slightly more solid unification process, since there is less agreement with the political scene in Washington. Anti-Communism: Yes. Conservative Values: Yes. Anti-Liberalism: No. This last NO might become more and more evident during the Stennis administration, and Europe could start to reorganize itself without always contacting Washington first.
If I were asked to extrapolate a long-term trend from the few years that the TL has changed: If the USA don't recover from Disneys presidency before the several economical+political crises of the 1970es hit, these will force Europe to become more independent, better organized and on the long term even to grow a serious military spine again, both to threaten off the USSR and to shake off the US bases on the territories. If something goes really well in the colonies (and there were a few indications previously in statichaos timeline regarding Africa), a culturally liberal but politically and economically nationalist (maybe even segregated?) confederation of European and African countries could be an end result in the TL's present day (US-controlled middle east excluded). But that seems more like a History Wank.
If the USA regains racial stability before its NATO partners slip away, Europe will happily return to be a more or less subordinate partner. And this is more likely, really! There MUST be a backlash, and even a weak backlash in time suffices to bind Europe to America again.
But first, I'm perversely interested in the horrible fate of America _before_ the eventual backlash happens.
