What if UK had kept Hong Kong?

[perfectgeneral]

n recent years, a proposal from the British Archives surfaced in regards to the territoriality of Weihai during the 1800s. The proposals, apparently advanced by Hong Kong governor Sir Frederick Lugard, stipulated that the British would revert Weihai to Chinese rule, and receive perpetual rule of the 1898 leased territories of Hong Kong in return. Some believe that if the proposal had been acted upon, Hong Kong would still remain in British hands, but Whitehall does not seem to have acted on the proposal.

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weihai

Suppose this had been acted on and China had agreed?
Would the revenue from Hong Kong amount to enough to defend it long-term from China? What sort of limit would denial of Hong Kong put on the economic expansion of China in recent years?

Frederick Lugard was Governor of Hong Kong from 1907 - 1912.

 

[Tyr]

If it was officially to be British forever then yes, it could survive. I wouldn't see China invading.
Ideally Britain would want it independant but given that that could prompt the otherwise complacant China into action wouldn't

 

[strangeland]

If the British had purchased the New Territories rather than leased them, then Hong Kong could have remained British in perpetuity. The only concievable effects I could see this having are that 1) Britain would have a naval base on the coast of China and 2) It would be a sore spot for Chinese nationalists. Nothing would probably come of it, but it would enhance the feeling that China had been exploited by Western powers.

 

[Xenos]

Britain could have allowed Hong Kong to have a referendum on its own future and thereby legimatise continued British rule (if they chose to remain part of the UK).

 

[Fletch]

Britain could have allowed Hong Kong to have a referendum on its own future and thereby legimatise continued British rule (if they chose to remain part of the UK).

Dont mean to be pedantic, but they were never part of the UK. They were a colony. I get the point though.

 

[Anaxagoras]

It seems to me that Hong Kong might have become a de facto hostage to the Chinese. As in, "Side with us over [insert issue here] or we will descend on Hong Kong with a dozen armored divisions."

 

[strangeland]

It seems to me that Hong Kong might have become a de facto hostage to the Chinese. As in, "Side with us over [insert issue here] or we will descend on Hong Kong with a dozen armored divisions."

had that become the case, Britain might as well have said, "the hell with it" and let Hong Kong go. However, the Chinese had to know that war with Britain and likely the US by extension, would have disastrous consequences for them. There was actually some noise about retaking Hong Kong during the Cultural Revolution, and even some agitation in Hong Kong itself, but nothing ever came of it, and because much of the population of Hong Kong was made up of refugees who had fled from the communists, there was little sympathy for them.

 

[perfectgeneral]

I'm wondering what the financial impact on the UK, Hong Kong and China would be?

I would expect that the UK might gain a little tax income and Hong Kong might retain a few well heeled citizens., Would the boom in growth that China has experienced in recent years be any different without HK capital and capitalist expertise?