What if Japan goes South West in WW2? - Story (Complete)

West Wind Clear


What if Japan goes South West - and tries to do a Britain first strategy?


Introductionary notes

Update - the story is now complete!

The topic of why Japan chose to attack the US as well the Dutch and British in December 1941 comes up from time to time. My goal here is to try to illustrate how Japan could easily have ended up in an equally challenging situation by trying to start with just the British and Dutch colonies. I have stopped the story at a fairly natural point early in the war, I think at point that it feels logical.

Others have written better researched and more detailed stories, which I have enjoyed greatly. I have not try to rival their grasp of detail, and indeed made some sections slightly vague to reflect the fact that I have more confidence in plausible outcomes than exactly how they happened. I will also confess to being something of a landlubber trying to describe a naval and in parts air war.

I have a few historical liberties in making Britain's defence of Malaya slightly more successful, and their preparation a little more significant. From a story of view this should be seen as part of the explanation for Japan trying to take on their enemies one at time.

I welcome feedback, especially if I have been wildly inaccurate, bear in mind I have made modest changes in the starting line up of forces and in the strategy adopted by parties involved.

The most important change is that for a variety of reasons the US is viewed as unlikely to willingly enter the war by the UK, and Japan feels it can keep the US out for a period of 3-4 months (possibly entirely). The latter is very questionable in reality, but it is an integral part of this story.

The story is mostly from the view points of various characters, senior figures are genuine, junior ones generally fictitious.
 
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The Malayan defence strategy

Much of the blame or credit for the British performance in Malaya goes to Churchill. It was his choice to send Force Z with the Prince of Wales, Repulse and Renown, with a view to dispatching carriers once hostilities began. Combined with local naval assets there would be 8 destroyers (4 modern, 4 WW1 vintage), several modern cruisers and several light cruisers. Additional warships were earmarked, but kept at a distance. Six submarines were also deployed to Singapore.

On land the forces were limited, the 18th division was earmarked to be sent to Burma (for training in Jungle conditions), HK was stripped of almost all military assets beyond a lightly armed police detachment. Singapore received the HK garrison troops.

III Corps in Singapore consisted of the 9th and 12 Indian divisions, 2 Australian brigades, and 2 Malaysian brigades. The biggest problem was a lack of combat experience, combined with much of the equipment lacking in modernity. Much equipment dated back to the First World War, and there was a serious lack of tanks, and few armoured cars. The arrival of the HK garrison in early Nov 1941 was a significant help, providing an extra infantry brigade. Plans for a Canadian brigade were set in motion, with a view to it being a mobile reserve for the region. Fighting in North Africa and the need to equip forces in the UK meant that Singapore was deemed a low priority area for armoured formations.

General Percival was given command of Malaya in April 1941 and given wide ranging powers to take all means necessary to prepare the region for conflict. With a particular focus to be given to creating formidable and visible defensive positions to make it clear to Japan that region would be costly to attack. This entailed the creation of new airfields, coastal defences and bunkers at choke points. Furthermore the island of Singapore was to be prepared for a siege. His target for completion was to be Feb 1942. Churchill was apparently the instigator of the decision to create several decoy airfields and the creation of dummy aircraft to make the force seem larger than in reality. Copying plans for the UK, stay behind units were also to be recruited.

At the end of Nov 1941 the RAF had 4 squadrons of 'buffalo' fighters, 3 squadrons of hurricane I fighters, 4 Blenheim squadrons, one Hudson squadron, and 3 squadrons of assorted biplane torpedo bombers. A small number of various reconnaissance planes of varying types were also present.

Interservice rivalry was always a problem, but was partially resolved through a series of joint excercises and a clear plan for the beginning of the campaign at least.

The initial strategy assumed landings in the North and potentially in Southern Thailand. Thus the land plan was to try to contain and destroy the landings, and if that failed to gradually fall back. Government expectations were that Singapore was probably untenable beyond 3-6 months, but that this time would be needed in order to reinforce the Burma and Indian theatre. The fall of French Indochina to Japan, the Thai diplomatic leanings towards Japan and the weakness of the Dutch defences had made Singapore much more vulnerable than had ever been assumed pre-war.
 
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Dusk 10th December 1941

General Mutaguchi still seethed inside that he and peers had been overruled on launching a surprise attack. The decision had been made that in order to avoid antagonising the Americans, a respectable pause between the declaration and hostilities had to exist. This was fine in principle, but his division faced a contested landing at Kota Bahru tomorrow, and the defenders would have had 24hrs to be ready.

The amphibious force needed to secure a beachhead, and push inland, his 18th Division would land after the SNLF landing force. This suited him, the Navy had been training and planning this for months, his force had focused on preparing for the move inland. Surprise was sadly not on their side, disguising the movement of so many transport ships and warships was viewed as impossible.

As he looked out from deck of the expedition command ship Katori he felt supremely confident. The fleet was in place to land troops at dawn, and so far the RAF had been kept at bay. It was then that he noticed a pick up in activity amongst the naval crew.

Over the next ten minutes he watched a number of the warships heading south. He assumed the Royal Navy had been sighted. He admired their courage, but could not help but feel it was futile...



Meanwhile...

Two British Task forces were heading north. A small cruiser squadron (Caledon, Emerald and Exeter) and to the east the Prince of Wales and the two battlecruisers. Each group had several destroyers attached, 2 more destroyers had been detached en route to pursue a suspected submarine and keep the exit route safe.

The RAF had managed to keep the air safe with combat patrols overhead, and their Hudson bombers had forced several Japanese submarines to submerge. Japanese aircraft were largely absent as they were still setting up in Thailand and the carriers were moving into position and focused on protecting the invasion fleet.

A combination of decrypted messages and sightings by both a Dutch submarine and aircraft had confirmed the existence of the large invasion task force. On the 6th the Dutch and British submarines had put to see in fear of imminent hostilities. Five British and one Dutch submarine lay in wait to the East of Malaya.
 
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A historical note

The British plan was to try a combined night attack by sea and air in the hope that something would get through. The seaborne portion involved a two pronged assault, with the hope that one would engage the escorts allowing the other to get through to the transports. The air campaign was to use the bombers to drop bombs and flares on the invasion force, and try to sneak in some swordfish/Vildebeest with their torpedoes. Daylight attacks were planned, but expectations were low if enemy carriers were present.

Submarines were to guide the various parties to the target and if the opportunity arose were to make their own attacks.

The Japanese plan had been carefully designed to minimise the likely risks. The invasion task force contained 30 transports escorted by destroyers and cruisers (generally the older ones). Ahead was a force of destroyers and light cruisers screening for submarines, they would also provide support to the landing force the next morning with their guns. Minesweepers accompanied the task force with a view to clearing the landing area. Fifty miles back were several carrier groups. In one three light carriers carried the fighters intended to keep the RAF at bay, whilst in the other four of the fleet carriers provided the air support designed to crush the airfields near the coast and keep the air battle away from the fleet.

To counter Force Z The Japanese had committed six battleships, 2 in close to the invasion force, 1 with the carriers and three Kongo class ships with several heavy cruisers acting as the strike force that would support whoever found Force Z first. The plan was for destroyers and cruisers to start the battle at least 50 miles out, and for the battleships to converge and finish off the capital ships that would be damaged by torpedo attacks.

Night was viewed as the riskiest phase, as coordinating the fleet would be challenging. Daylight however should see both air superiority and the ability to easily bring 5 battleships to bear on the smaller Force Z.

The key priority for Japan was to cover the contested landing in Northern Malaya, and ensure the troop and supply convoys coming into Thailand over the next two days were uninterrupted. If all went well the RAF would be gutted and Force Z destroyed in a decisive battle early in the war.

A key constraint was the need to keep back a significant force in case the US decided to intervene. This necessitated retaining nearly half the carriers, the remaining battleships(Ise and Nagato classes) and an appropriate quantity of cruisers and destroyers. Smaller landings would concurrently start in the Dutch and British colonial possessions that lay short of Malaya, these two required significant amounts of shipping and escorts.
 
Dusk - south of the Main Japanese body off Malaya

The small Japanese floatplane was one of many sent out in a hurried effort to find the British fleet. With two submarines not reporting in and another floatplane missing the pilot was both nervous and excited that he would finally be able to do his job for real.

His spotter gave a cry as he saw ships below heading north. The pilot radioed in the report:

"Three large warships sighted with two escorts, one warship larger than the other two."



The speed of the reaction to this news served to demonstrate their high level of training and preparedness. Four destroyers and three cruisers from the covering force were dispatched with instructions to make a torpedo attack on what thought to be the battleship and battlecruisers. They were to be followed by two battleships coming in from their north, who would join once the targets were identified and ideally damaged. Meanwhile three Kongo class ships were to come in from the East acting as a hammer to the anvil.


11pm

The radar operator on HMS Exeter was the first to spot the Japanese Cruiser force, allowing the ship to start the action at 10,000 yards with a salvo that straddled the Mogami and illuminated her with a star shell. HMS Caledon and Emerald followed up and landed several hits. Their escorting destroyers prepared to launch their torpedoes.

The Japanese response was one of surprise, but also relief, their greatest fear was that the Royal Navy would slip into the midst of the transports. The battleships were notified and the task force commenced its plans for a torpedo attack whilst they awaited the arrival of the battleships.



11:15pm - Aboard the covering force flagship

Admiral Kondo initiated the convergence on the sighted enemy task. However he was very nervous that he might face a cruiser or destroyer using the darkness to sneak past his formation. He therefore felt obliged to leave several ships behind as a reserve whilst he headed towards the engagement.

He was on the bridge of the Haruna, supervising the preparations for the coming engagement, the ship trailed the Kongo, Hiei and Tone who had formed a line facing the line they were headed towards.

They could see the distant flashes of naval guns, and eagerly awaited the chance to prove their superiority over the overrated Royal Navy. The admiral was confident that both numbers and fancy new torpedoes should give them the edge.

It therefore came as something of a surprise when 4000 yards to their port the night lit up as the Prince of Wales fired its broadside. Fortunately for those on the bridge the shots were aimed at the Kongo which was close to 500 yards ahead of them.

The Kongo did not take well to the close range hits. Four 14 inch shells went into its hull, one destroyed a turret and another exploded amongst its secondary batteries. Admiral Kondo watched in shock as further flashes from the night indicated the presence of one of the British battlecruisers.

He was shaken out of his brief shock by an almighty blast as one of the magazines in the Kongo took a direct hit. For a few moments everything went quiet as both sides took stock of the sudden event. The blast and fire revealed the worrying sight of two British destroyers making a torpedo run, the captains of the three remaining Japanese ships reacted quickly by increasing speed and turning to minimise the danger. To their left the remains of the once mighty Kongo sank beneath the waves amidst the burning debris.

It took several minutes to get the Japanese big guns into action, by this stage Kongo was in many pieces, Hiei was under fire from both the Repulse and Renown whilst the Prince of Wales had opened up on the Haruna.

The first hits to the Haruna came from the secondary guns quickly followed by the main guns, the crew on the bridge were forced to duck as shrapnel became a threat. The front turret (A) took a direct hit, and one more went into the hull near the bow. The B turret was able to reply, and a hit was observed on the British battleship. The rear turrets were still turning and awaiting the ship to turn sufficiently to open fire.

Life took a turn for the worse for the unlucky Admiral Kondo as a shell struck the bridge, his last memory before he passed out was of smoke and big hole in the wall through which he could see the enemy warship.


When he awoke he could see a concerned pair of sailors holding a torch, his arm was at a funny angle and everything hurt. He couldn't hear any gunfire only the sound of emergency repair work. The ship seemed to be going rather slowly and he could smell burnt meat.

The captain was in worse shape than him, but still alive. The same could not be said for the rest of those who had been nearby, limbs and debris were all around.

As he slowly came to his senses with help of some single malt whisky, he was told the sorry tale leading to the present condition of his fleet. The Haruna was in manageable shape, but had lost much of its power and several turrets, she wasn't going anywhere fast, but nor was she in danger of sinking. At this news he cheered up, and then grimaced as he heard the rest. The situation on the Hiei was not so good, the crew were hoping to save her, the ship was low in the water, had plenty of big holes in it and its systems were out of action. Destroyers were alongside taking off the wounded and doing what they could to put out the fires.

The Tone was largely unscathed, multiple near misses had forced it to turn back when it attempted to shadow the British ships as they withdrew south following their broadsides.

As best the surviving officers could tell the handful of shots his ships had managed to get off had inflicted some damage, but nothing that slowed the enemy. Their long lance torpedoes had not been able to land any blows, and a destroyer had been lost when its torpedoes were ignited by an enemy shell. This left only three destroyers and cruiser protecting the damaged capital ships.


Half an hour later he received better news. The cruiser engagement to their west had seen at least one enemy cruiser sunk by torpedo attack (HMS Caledon) and the remaining large British ships definitely damaged by gunfire. One British destroyer was also sunk, HMS Electra, badly damaged by gunfire, it was finished off by a long lance torpedo. The cruiser Mogami was in turn damaged, but in no danger of sinking.

Another couple of hours brought the arrival of the emperor's portrait from the Hiei, it was felt the Hiei had too high a risk of sinking. At dawn the Hiei capsized and sunk, the damage inflicted upon it was too much.
 
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2am - The transport fleet

The RAF threw everything it had into a night attack. Knowing they were likely to lose air superiority, they opted to use their collection of flying antiques in a night attack that might at least achieve some success.

The Hudson bombers were guided onto the the transport fleet by a directions from a submarine, they proceeded to drop flares and illuminate the targets. Below them the Japanese fleet was busy loading up the landing boats. The extra light was help to the troops, but something of a concern for the ship crews.

Twenty Blenheim bombers then attempted to hit the slow moving targets below. The RAF demonstrated its accuracy at night with a modest number of near misses, several of which were close enough to damage a couple of landing craft beyond repair. The Blenheims in turn came under AA fire, and one was brought down.

The Blenheims had not come alone, twenty minutes later the Hudson bombers returned dropping further flares. Most of the Japanese AA gunners looked to skies ready for more bombers. This time the danger came from half a dozen Vildebeest torpedo bombers, there had been more but engine problems and navigation errors reduced the group significantly. Their targets were mostly stationary and busy unloading troops into boats. It was therefore no surprise that several were able make successful runs, landing crippling blows on two transport ships. The AA teams reacted quickly, and managed to bring two of the slow moving bombers, and cause the others to miss.

The two converted merchant ships slowly sank, the men aboard were mostly rescued, but the remaining cargo of assorted vehicles, ammunition, and artillery pieces were lost.

More destruction was still to come. The night action to the south had reduced the number of escorts, what had been a tight screen of destroyers now had gaps. The air attacks, and flares reduced the night vision of the ship crews, leaving them vulnerable. The submarine HMS Trusty had been lurking nearby since dusk, after reporting the precise location of the fleet to aircraft, she had waited for her chance to strike. The submarine was able launch its full spread of torpedoes. She scored three hits, one was 'harmless' hitting a landing boat, two were fatal hits on transports. Whilst most of the men on board were saved the cargo were lost. A little over 10% of the ammunition and vehicles for the landing force had now been lost. The force was fortunate that the cargo had been fairly evenly divided.

Four British submarines were in the area. HMS Trusty had been able to the transport fleet early on. HMS Truant and the others had been significantly further out to sea, and upon receiving the location broadcast by Trusty, had headed towards the target. The captain of Truant took a route through where he thought the supporting carriers might lie. It was shortly before dawn when he found his prey...
 
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Dawn - aboard HMS Truant

The captain could not take the sole credit for finding the carriers, the radar on board the nocturnal search aircraft had narrowed his target area considerably. Through his periscope he was now able to make out the silhouette of a carrier and destroyer 800 yards to his front. The carrier was slowly turning into the wind, and the destroyer was lurking slightly ahead and to its left. Other Japanese warships were nearby, With a clear target he ordered 4 torpedoes to be aimed at the carrier and two at the destroyer. The slow speed of the Japanese ships helped, the destroyer was hit by one and the carrier received three. The carrier slowly listed to its starboard, and four Zeros on the deck slowly slide off the edge. The destroyer was also in bad way and had stopped dead in the water.

The captain could not stay any longer, three destroyers were headed towards his location to investigate. It took four hours to escape, leaving the fate of his targets unconfirmed and unreported till later in the day.
 
11:30am East of Mersing

Force Z headed south towards Singapore as quickly as it could manage. The RAF were maintaining a steady patrol above, and were using aircraft to keep the Japanese submarines submerged and ideally unable to attack.

The force had lost a destroyer and light cruiser in the night's engagement, damage to the remaining ships was varied. The larger ships had all taken some hits, luckily none that significantly impacted speed, but they were in poor condition for a surface engagement.

Admiral Phillips was well aware that the Japanese would be keen to avenge their losses, and suspected that air attack was the most likely option. He was mindful of the fate of the Bismarck, and had arranged to have air cover. Submarines were also a threat, and he hoped the combination of patrols by sea and air would reduce the danger.

The air attacks started with a group of 15 'Nell' bombers, they were immediately attacked by the six buffalo fighters on patrol above them. The raid had been picked up on radar, and further fighters were scrambled. The first raid saw seven bombers shot down by the fighters, and several more damaged as they made a bombing run. Soon after a Japanese fighter sweep came in, the humble Buffalo proved a poor match for the Zero, four were quickly downed and the other two survived only by flying low amongst the ships. Happily for Force Z the zeros were clearly operating near their fuel limits and quickly left.

The next wave of bombers came in soon after the RAF had managed to replenish the air cover with a mix of 12 hurricanes and Buffaloes. Once more air cover proved crucial. Half the bombers were shot down on the way in, several broke off the attack and one was hit by flak. Two were able to make a torpedo run, which was evaded by the Repulse. Three more carried bombs and were able to make several deck hits on the Prince of Wales. The armour prevent serious damage, but there were crew losses and the floatplane was destroyed.
The third wave arrived at 1pm, this consisted of a mix of bettys and nells, carrying a mixture of bombs and torpedoes. As with the previous waves the fighters were able to take their toll, out of forty hostile bombers eighteen were shot down. Of the remainder twelve carried bombs, and they carried out a rushed attack, inflicting light damage to the Repulse from several near misses and a hit to the rear turret that was unable to penetrate the armour.

The torpedo bombers concentrated on the Prince of Wales, the first four were dodged through evasive manouvers, but this opened the ship up to another attack by the remainder. Despite the heavy anti aircraft fire one of the bombers was able to make his attack count. The Prince of Wales took a hit to the starboard side and started taking on water. In return the anti aircraft batteries had brought down two of the attackers and damaged three more.

The ship speed had slow to 21 knots, but the group was now increasingly out of the range of the Japanese aircraft. One japanese submarine was sighted by air and the group was able to find a path around them. Unbeknownst to the Admiral the Japanese carriers were fully occupied, a substantial portion of the fighters were providing close air protection to their own fleet, the remainder were busy knocking out the RAF airfields in Northern Malaya and trying to elimate as much of the RAF in the air as they could. With the unexpectedly heavy losses suffered by the bombers earlier in the day the Japanese had decided to focus on softer targets.
 
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Actually the US public is quite isolationist, if Hawaii and Philippines was attacked then all bets are off. So I think the US would stay out for far more longer.
Really love the night attack, was a bit surprise they did not press it a little further with how much damage they unleashed.
 
The Malayan defence strategy

Much of the blame or credit for the British performance in Malaya goes to Churchill.
That's a little rich. The time Japan invaded Malaya Churchill had only been PM for about 82 weeks, or 16 months. If you want to blame anyone, it's the interwar politicos, bureaucrats, foreign office boffins and chiefs of staff that let the British military deteriorate to the point that Churchill couldn't send much more than token forces. Even at the height of Britain's involvement in the Pacific War in 1944, the RN force was at best four or five carriers and a brace of battleships (all of which were ordered before Churchill's time), a tiny force compared to the USN and even IJN at the time. Churchill made a lot of mistakes, but not having sufficient forces available is not his.
 
Very interesting Antiochus V...
But I have a few questions:
1. What is the status of carrier HMS Hermes?
2. Why didn't you included HMS Glasgow or HMS Mauritius to give more support?
3. Why not send more ships like all of Force H to Singapore, since HMS Renown is at Singapore and maybe get another light cruiser HMS Hermione and 6 modern destroyers and 6 old destroyers and MAYBE just maybe Carrier HMS Ark Royal if it is not sunk? (The reason for Force H is because she was part of it.)
4. If Force H would have been sent why not send Admiral James Somerville to take command of Force Z?
And finally...
5. Whats the status of the Asiatic Fleet, Australian/New Zealand fleet, and Dutch fleet?
 
That's a little rich. The time Japan invaded Malaya Churchill had only been PM for about 82 weeks, or 16 months. If you want to blame anyone, it's the interwar politicos, bureaucrats, foreign office boffins and chiefs of staff that let the British military deteriorate to the point that Churchill couldn't send much more than token forces. Even at the height of Britain's involvement in the Pacific War in 1944, the RN force was at best four or five carriers and a brace of battleships (all of which were ordered before Churchill's time), a tiny force compared to the USN and even IJN at the time. Churchill made a lot of mistakes, but not having sufficient forces available is not his.

So far Churchill is doing better than in OTL. His clearer instructions to Percival, a larger RAF commitment and his Force Z composition have already had an impact.
 
Very interesting Antiochus V...
But I have a few questions:
1. What is the status of carrier HMS Hermes?
2. Why didn't you included HMS Glasgow or HMS Mauritius to give more support?
3. Why not send more ships like all of Force H to Singapore, since HMS Renown is at Singapore and maybe get another light cruiser HMS Hermione and 6 modern destroyers and 6 old destroyers and MAYBE just maybe Carrier HMS Ark Royal if it is not sunk? (The reason for Force H is because she was part of it.)
4. If Force H would have been sent why not send Admiral James Somerville to take command of Force Z?
And finally...
5. Whats the status of the Asiatic Fleet, Australian/New Zealand fleet, and Dutch fleet?

If memory serves in OTL some of the cruisers in the area are currently escorting convoys. So will likely be available here in due course.

Somerville may yet appear. I felt Phillips deserved a chance at success of a sort.

Hermes may yet appear, if nothing else it was an aircraft ferry. Plans for other carriers are as yet undecided...

Dutch are defending themselves, the others commonwealth warships are still there, but lack destroyer escorts for now.
 
Actually the US public is quite isolationist, if Hawaii and Philippines was attacked then all bets are off. So I think the US would stay out for far more longer.
Really love the night attack, was a bit surprise they did not press it a little further with how much damage they unleashed.

I did ponder having the Royal Navy press on, but figured their losses would be heavy. It also suited my story better for the Japanese transport fleet to survive.

The US involvement will hopefully be interesting, I think I have some new angles to play with. Hopefully it will not seem too contentious.
 
If memory serves in OTL some of the cruisers in the area are currently escorting convoys. So will likely be available here in due course.

Somerville may yet appear. I felt Phillips deserved a chance at success of a sort.

Hermes may yet appear, if nothing else it was an aircraft ferry. Plans for other carriers are as yet undecided...

Dutch are defending themselves, the others commonwealth warships are still there, but lack destroyer escorts for now.

Okay thanx for responding some question but what about the Asiatic Fleet? I think that Admiral Thomas Hart seeing what is happening in the south china sea would ask for reinforcements for the Asiatic Fleet like 2 carriers with its cover support, at least a battleship division, a cruiser division, and modern destroyers. As well as naval aircraft to do reconn or torpedo bomber planes.
 

nbcman

Donor
Okay thanx for responding some question but what about the Asiatic Fleet? I think that Admiral Thomas Hart seeing what is happening in the south china sea would ask for reinforcements for the Asiatic Fleet like 2 carriers with its cover support, at least a battleship division, a cruiser division, and modern destroyers. As well as naval aircraft to do reconn or torpedo bomber planes.

Before asking for all of those reinforcements, where would they be based at? The facilities in the Philippines couldn't handle it and the neutral US forces can't be based in British or Dutch bases.

Also it would take many days for any US naval reinforcements to arrive as it is over 8500 kms between Manila (US Asiatic Fleet base) and Honolulu (US Pacific Fleet base), assuming the fleet elements are already there. Assuming they left immediately and sailed directly there at a speed of about 18 kts (which would be an impressive long distance run for the old US BBs), that is about 11 days of sailing with no refueling stops. More likely it would take triple that time or more to take into consideration sailing at a slower pace with a more southerly route closer to Australia as opposed to directly sailing through the Japanese controlled islands in the Central Pacific.
 
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