What if Franco had lost the Spanish Civil War (1936 - 1939)?

[Pacifist Egalitarian]

Would his defeat have delayed the start of WW 2 or even help contain fascism? What impact might it have had on the western capitalist nations? And what overall effect would it have had on the Spanish Revolution that occurred within the context of the Spanish Civil War?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Revolution

Would the Spanish Republic and their Bolshevik "allies" have continued with their attempt to destroy the anarcho-syndicalist CNT-FAI and their socialist allies the UGT, in what George Orwell dubbed a "civil war within the civil war"? And if so what would've been the result? Would the Spanish anarchists have faced inevitable defeat from their former "allies", or pull an upset and turn the tables? What do you think?

I'm of the opinion that both Republican Spain and their Bolshevik accomplices would've rolled back most of the areas under the CNT-FAI's control. But that the anarcho-syndicalist, along with the more pure anarchists and grass roots socialists, would've held out in a few isolated districts in their main strongholds in Catalonia and Aragon. As well as maintain control in some districts in Barcelona and other cities. There would probably have remained a few industries under syndicalist control, too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUig0lFHDDw

"During the first two months of the war it was the Anarchists more than anyone else who had saved the situation, and much later than this the Anarchist militia, in spite of their indiscipline, were notoriously the best fighters among the purely Spanish forces." George Orwell - Homage to Catalonia page 55

 

[kurtstallings]

A brief aside

I look forward to seeing what the responses are as a longtime reader into 1930s fascist / national socialist movements (loathing them) in Europe likewise fascinated by Soviet politics (loathing Bolshevism as well).

Preliminarily, though, I can't help but note for those of a certain age like myself, Franco vanishing quickly from history in the 30s would have eliminated one of the most quickly recalled comedy memes of the SNL-dominated 70s.

So one possible result would be an earlier eclipse of Chevy Chase's career, and the bizarre off camera hate-chemistry he had with Bill Murray means *Caddyshack* would have lost its edge, if it happened at all. (Who would had taken Chase's role if it did? Hmmmm.) Either way, Francisco Franco was ... still dead.

I realize this may not be quite the sort of consequences you had in mind but ... damn it I love *Caddyshack*.

 

[eliphas8]

This depends greatly on when the war against Franco is won.

 

[Niko Malaka]

This depends greatly on when the war against Franco is won.

This is an important point to take into consideration. Also, a different development of the war could have an effect on the way it ends and in the attitude of the main powers. If the Republic is winning in 1938, the great powers could press for a negotiated peqce trough the League of Nations, for example. Also, take in consideration that even in OTL in the latest molents of the war (and darker for the republic) most political fornations and unions had realized the nocive effects of the soviet influence, thus you had all of them (excepting obviously the PCE and the PSUC) joining together to oust Negrín's government, including the CNT. So, the May events against the CNT and the POUM are not the end of all the political game. A different circumatance, but during the exile the Communists were also marginated from the republican institution in the exile, having a "government" with everybody else in Mexico and the Communists opperating from France.

 

[TxCoatl1970]

I love the idea of anarchists and Socialists and democrats pulling off a win in the SCW, however unlikely after 1937.

Let's say the Spanish Nationalist cause becomes fizzled pustch #1674- Franco never joins or the Guardia Civil wrap up the plotters (Sanjurjo, Mola and Franco) very quickly in 1936,
the Moorish legion never makes it past the Pillars of Hercules,
the Carlists, Falange, etc spend more time sniping at each other than revolting against the Republic... pick from the pack.

For the Republic to avoid pissing off the center and Catholics especially, the anti-clerical campaigns have to be a dead letter, full stop to keep CEDA on-side.

It sounds counter-intuitive for the Republic to be reform-minded because the Republic was very much a revolutionary development after Primo de Rivera's fall. Trouble was, as much as everyone felt things needed to change in Spain, exactly how, how fast, and how violently was where nobody agreed and nobody wanted compromise.

As a bourgeois American who's played wayyyy too many RTS games building badass ant farm factions- you gotta build industry, commerce, and technology to be competitive so you have the muscle, the money, and boffins developing the spiffy gear to kick ass.

All the things Americans take for granted (technically, politically, socially, economically) from the Enlightenment through the Industrial Revolution, and formation of a competent unitary state had largely bypassed Spain during the 1800's. Spain had some of the modern tools but still mired in 1700 on how to run the country. Folks knew it and wanted to be real Europeans enjoying the fruits of the 20th century ASAP.

Trouble was, even in 1931, Spain was still mired in feudalism, with latifundia tying up the land, people, and capital in inefficient estates. Commerce was still mercantilist as if Bourbon France were still European hegemon.
Spanish universities were of decent quality but starved of capital and funds and only for the well-heeled, not to mention still having to bow to Catholic and political orthodoxy therefore, no true intellectual freedom or or tradition of debate new ideas rocking the status quo.

However, education in primary and secondary grades for men outside the cities was abysmal for men and women were even worse off.
Trade schools and technical institutes educating folks with practical skills and empowering them to prosper and innovate that made the UK, Germany, and the USA into industrial, technical, and commercial powerhouses were practically non-existent.
LSS, poor Spaniards had a damned difficult time bettering themselves, so political radicalism was one of many ways that frustration manifested itself.

If agriculture's messed up, how in blazes are you getting enough people in the cities so industry can get going if everyone's threshing wheat and stomping grapes? Industrialization had come to Spain, but slowly, hesitantly, starved of capital and talent.

Building a bourgeois liberal democracy takes decades of patient upgrading of physical and intellectual infrastructure educating and gainfully employing the populace. That's what Spain needed.

So coming roughly around 1935, you'd see public-private partnerships where public agencies put out the best info on crop cultivation, soil conservation, and try to help productively channel the rivers.

Various volunteer groups whether Socialist, Quaker, Catholic or vanilla secular groups educate kids (and adults!) encouraging literacy , numeracy, and personal development.

Entrepeneurship gets some positive press and becomes less taboo.

 

[NKVD]

The French government was sympathetic to the Republicans and didn't want to be surrounded on three sides by fascist states, but they were also concerned about alienating Britain (which was quietly helping the Nationalists) and stirring up political opposition at home. However, after either the Anschluss or the Munich crisis, the French government was scared into lifting non-intervention, but by then it was too late for the Republic.

Have something happen in 1936 or 1937 that scares France into lifting non-intervention, maybe.

Stalin had similar concerns about alienating Britain. Maybe if France bucks the farce of non-intervention, the Soviet Union will follow. I don't know.

Also, there's evidence that FDR was planning to pull a Reagan and help the Republicans in spite of Congress. But that plan was aborted or something.

 

[TxCoatl1970]

I'm with you re: the French telling the Non-Interventionists (UK, US et al.) to stuff it. France coming onside in 1937 just arming the Republican army and sending a few AdA squadrons would've made it a much more even contest and MIGHT have crushed the Nationalists outright.

Seconding de Gaulle and a few other young French guns to prove themselves against the Boche would've been very beneficial to clearing some of the WWI-sclerosis from the General Staff, IF they paid any attention to the lessons learned.

You still had piss-poor generalship on the Spanish Republican side, though.

ALSO, even the most militant Spanish Anarchist might feel a little unnerved by the French coming south again to enforce secularism, progress, etc at bayonet point.

Leon Blum was terrified of the SCW becoming a French civil war.
Estimates of the Croix de Feu and other far-right groups numbers, support, and elan were vastly exaggerated by the Deuxieme for their own reasons.

Plus, my fellow Americans love to talk tough in 2014 about they'd have tanned Hitler's hide in 1936 if they were in Paris.

Fine. France lost 20% of their military-age men in WWI. 1.358M dead, 4.266M wounded. Their population was 39M so that had a helluva effect on the future French population (and economic) growth in the 1920's and 1930's regardless of the economic crash of 1929.

The only time the US came to close to losing that proportion of young men was the Civil War where the South lost 260K out of 1.082 M men that served.
1/4 marching off to war died. Roughly that many were maimed physically by the war to where they couldn't work. 520K men dead or invalid out of 4.5M men.
It took the South 100 years to recover demographically and economically from that catastrophe.

The trauma of WWI and the economic meltdown from the German occupation of Northern France haunted them for a generation.

So to an extent, I can see why the French government wasn't too keen on leaping again into another meat-grinder in 1936.

 

[Pacifist Egalitarian]

This depends greatly on when the war against Franco is won.

An early defeat of Franco would've helped the workers' movement (i.e. the CNT, UGT, FAI, POUM) the most as they led the initial charge against the insurrection. Otherwise they would've inevitably faced the Republic and the Reds who would probably have received tacit support from the West.

"The collective modernized industry, increased production, turned out better products, and improved public services." The Anarchist Collectives: Workers' Self-Management in the Spanish Revolution: 1936-1939 by Sam Dolgoff

 

[PhoenicianLegacy]

Probably would've paved way for a Communist Spain and Hitler would felt the need to hold back temporarily and delay WWII.

 

[Pacifist Egalitarian]

Do you mean "Communist" or Bolshevik?

Do you mean Communist or Bolshevik? Some might say that there is an organizational difference between the two in the real world.

"The war was essentially a triangular struggle. The fight against Franco had to continue, but the simultaneous aim of the Government was to recover such power as remained in the hands of the trade unions." George Orwell - Homage to Catalonia .54

 

[eliphas8]

Probably would've paved way for a Communist Spain and Hitler would felt the need to hold back temporarily and delay WWII.

Again, depends vastly on when the war is won. In my opinion an early victory is by far the best choice for both Spain and the most likely to work out. The key point here being to formally embrace the more radical base that lead the initial oppositon to the military uprising, declare the Rif and Sahara immediately independent to rob the nationalists of the loyalty of muslim regulars, openly hail massive democratic land collectivization to break the will of the conscripts to fight against a government working in their interests, and really push that this is a revolution just as much as a war against fascism.

The big thing here is that the Spanish people had grown apathetic to the Republican government, while the Popular Front government won the election the people of Spain generally felt blase about another elected corrupt government. Revolutionary change though tended to get them inflamed in support of the republic.

An early victory is also important because it would be before the support from Germany and Italy could really arrive in droves, since that was a hugely important thing to the Nationalist victory.

 

[Comisario]

I believe my timeline can answer this and provide a suitable POD.

 

[dduff442]

After the battle of France, Germany probably invades Spain and then grinds through the forts at Gibraltar. With this seized, the idea of building up Libya (i.e. expanding ports & transportation infrastructure) for a push on the Suez Canal becomes much more attractive. Also, Germany gets all Portugal's output of tungsten and without paying inflated prices (driven OTL by Britain writing a blank cheque).

The USSR would be much better prepared for war when it came but a landing in NW Europe by the western Allies would be much more difficult.

 

[Driftless]

A different POD?

Perhaps this question should have it's own thread?

I do not know Spanish history well, but what was the Spanish political, economic, & social environment like following the Treaty of Paris in 1898?(yes, I know that is pre-1900's - but any developmental change would have been 20th century). Was there any possibility of greater change to Spanish society at the dawn of the 20th Century?

 

[Comisario]

Perhaps this question should have it's own thread?

I do not know Spanish history well, but what was the Spanish political, economic, & social environment like following the Treaty of Paris in 1898?(yes, I know that is pre-1900's - but any developmental change would have been 20th century). Was there any possibility of greater change to Spanish society at the dawn of the 20th Century?

José Canalejas, Prime Minister of Spain from 1910-1912, must not be assassinated. He was one of the few statesmen in Spain who could have steered the country towards democracy. Keeping him alive throughout the years of the war and maybe after would surely change the desperate political and economic situations of the 1930s.

 

[Opunium]

After the battle of France, Germany probably invades Spain and then grinds through the forts at Gibraltar. With this seized, the idea of building up Libya (i.e. expanding ports & transportation infrastructure) for a push on the Suez Canal becomes much more attractive. Also, Germany gets all Portugal's output of tungsten and without paying inflated prices (driven OTL by Britain writing a blank cheque).

The USSR would be much better prepared for war when it came but a landing in NW Europe by the western Allies would be much more difficult.

Could the USSR declare war on Germany after they move into Spain? Wouldnt Spain be 'socialist' and thus giving the Soviets a casus belli?

 

[eliphas8]

Could the USSR declare war on Germany after they move into Spain? Wouldnt Spain be 'socialist' and thus giving the Soviets a casus belli?

That depends a lot on who won the fight inside the government. Early victory would probably actually be a state the soviets don't want anything to do with because it will be dominated by Trotskyists and Anarchists.

 

[sloreck]

If the victory is early, the USSR is really not too involved and will have limited influence. Later on the USSR is really calling the shots in most ways, and also once they move the Spanish gold reserves to Moscow...

Spain in 1939 is in no shape to join France/UK against Germany, even if they have an inclination in that direction. If Germany goes over the Pyrenees after France surrenders it will be a total disaster. Even with Franco assisting them, infrastructure (even if not as badly chewed up as OTL) is crap. With the Spanish govt fighting the Germans, irregulars, and trashing roads/bridges/RRs getting to Gibraltar at all, let alone with a force large enough and adequately sustained to take it will not happen in any sort of hurry.

Of course, this will mean Barbarossa isn't happening.