The possibility did occur to me, but as pointed out, caution is more appropriate given the events unfolding.
Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL
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The possibility did occur to me, but as pointed out, caution is more appropriate given the events unfolding.
Well, in this timeline that might be a bit different. Now he is firmly entrenched in Persia and the British Empire is rapidly disintegrating. He never was the kind of guy who did not seize the oppportunity when it presented itself.
After all, Communism or no, the Russians still remember the Great Game and now they have a chance to finally win it.
Understandable, but does Stalin really know it's coming? To the point where he cuts down on the support for communists abroad?
The time between the Peace of Tehran and Barbarossa is rather short. And troubles in India started months before the invasion at most.
The changed situation means that I could see him making either decision, with much depending on the extent to which he sees war with the ETL looming. Personally, I think him not being caught by surprise is an interesting scenario, and one which could (which is not to say certainly) result from there being no Anglo-German war.
When the World Held its Breath
With British non-belligerence relatively secure, any remaining uncertainty as to the reality of Operation Hermann’s implementation vanished. There was a near-unanimous consensus among the German high command that victory over an isolated USSR was certain given the overwhelming war-waging capacity at the disposal of the European Treaty League and the way the capacity of the Volkswehr for maneuver contrasted with the Red Army’s recent floundering on the fronts in Scandinavia and Iran. Nevertheless, there was no avoiding the sheer size of the Soviet Union, which posed challenges unlike any which had been encountered in the west. “The vast expanses of Russia were mind-numbing,” recalled a Luftwaffe reconnaissance pilot. “There were continuous stretches of farmland stretching to the horizon, shining in the sun, which gave one the feeling more of flying over some strange ocean than over solid earth.” Nor could the fragility exhibited by Czarist Russia during the Great War be taken as necessarily representative of the challenge which now faced the Third Reich, for the Soviet rulers had created vast production complexes for armaments in the depths of European Russia, a process which as related in Part II attracted grudging admiration as well as worry amongst the German military leadership.
A German reconnaissance aircraft near the Black Sea.
Therefore, in planning the invasion, great attention was payed to identifying which areas of the USSR were essential to the continued functioning of the Soviet war effort, and of those, which were most readily within reach. Of the latter, there were at the outset three, Leningrad in the north, the capital Moscow, and Ukraine. The first two were the second-largest and largest cities in the Soviet Union respectively, both major economic centers, with the latter especially being an important center of transportation and communication, as well as the symbolic center of the country, “what Paris is to France,” remarked Franz Halder, whose army group was tasked with the capture of Moscow. Ukraine, one of the prime goals during the last war, was also an irreplaceable source of minerals, ore, and coal, as well as grain grown from the famous “black earth.” The first draft plans therefore envisioned three army groups, Left, Center, and Right, for each of the three objectives. Army groups Center and Right were each to have two panzer groups, while Army Group Left, squeezed between its larger neighbor to the south and the Baltic Sea, was given just one. As a general rule, the drive on Leningrad was considered to be of lesser importance than the other two, especially after negotiations to persuade Sweden to enter the war at the outset by invading Soviet-occupied Finland failed.
Oil wells in the Caucasus.
There was another region, relatively limited in geographic terms, which was of critical importance to the USSR’s ability to continue fighting, the Caucasus mountains and the oilfields located there, which provided four-fifths of the Soviet oil supply. But they were far out of reach, located thousands of miles from the nearest assembly areas of Army Group Right. Therefore, Wagner and Neurath opened talks with Ankara in the spring to bring about Turkish participation in the war at the outset and the swift capture of the oilfields. The negotiations culminated in several personal conferences between Wagner and President Inonu in Berlin in mid-to-late April. At first, Wagner’s attempts to persuade the Turkish leader of the wisdom of early entry by emphasizing historical Russian-Turkish enmity and the prospect of reversing the gains Stalin had recently made at Turkey’s expense met with complete failure, as both sides were well aware that such gains would not have occurred had it not been for Wagner’s acquiescence to Stalin’s terms the previous year. Inonu stated bluntly that he saw no reason “why Turkey should not remain on the sidelines until after Russia’s defeat became imminent.”
Inonu signing the ETL protocol.
In response, the Germans stated that should Inonu agree to enter the war at the beginning, once victory had been won, control over the Maikop and Grozny fields, which produced a combined total of 51 million barrels annually, would be transferred to Turkey. On the other hand, should entry be significantly delayed, no such transfer would be forthcoming and the opportunity would not come again. The prospect of exclusive access to such a large supply of energy tipped the balance and Inonu accepted the conditions. The OKV provided assurances that the war would from the beginning be an offensive one fought on Soviet soil and that the Luftwaffe would ensure that the Red Air Force would be prevented from significant bombing. In early May, the joining of the ETL by Poland, the Czech and Slovak republics, Hungary, Romania, and Turkey was made official, the last significant act in international diplomacy which took place before the beginning of the eastern war.
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And Norway, Denmark, Spain and Italy ? I suppose yes.
Also, what about Japan ? As I said earlier, they don't even have to directly attack. Just by massing as much troops as possible near the border, and sitting there, they harm Soviet war effort. And they can enter the war later, when USSR have to pull out most of its Far East troops.
Same for China, which can sit behind the border and attack later. And even if Red Army > IJA > Chinese army, China has the numbers and the logistical advantage.
China can get Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tuva back, avenge past humiliations by Russia, soothe its wounded pride, and get Siberian territory (resources + buffer).
Even if China and Japan downright hate and fear each other, I can see both participating.
They both need Siberian riches and buffer against Russia. They both hate and fear Russia.
Wagner would be able to cultivate his friendship with both nations. Especially as, middle-to-long-term, either Japan or China may gravitate to Anglosphere. China simply to counter Japan. And Japan to have good relations with its neighbors and for trade. So having a foot in both is good policy.
Can Mussolini and Wagner get an anti-Soviet proclamation from the Vatican, condemning communist atrocities, persecutions of christians... ? And use Turkey to agitate Soviet Muslims ?
The Vatican could help to make Operation Hermann more popular / less unpopular in the USA.
Even better : a joint proclamation from the Vatican, the Protestant churches (in Germany), the Danish and Bulgarian national churches.
It will be hard to criticize an intervention to "protect religious liberty and protect oppressed christians" as imperialism if churches support it.
What happened to Palestine, its Zionists and Arabs ?
Also, what about Japan ? As I said earlier, they don't even have to directly attack. Just by massing as much troops as possible near the border, and sitting there, they harm Soviet war effort. And they can enter the war later, when USSR have to pull out most of its Far East troops.
Same for China, which can sit behind the border and attack later. And even if Red Army > IJA > Chinese army, China has the numbers and the logistical advantage.
China can get Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tuva back, avenge past humiliations by Russia, soothe its wounded pride, and get Siberian territory (resources + buffer).
Even if China and Japan downright hate and fear each other, I can see both participating.
They both need Siberian riches and buffer against Russia. They both hate and fear Russia.
Wagner would be able to cultivate his friendship with both nations. Especially as, middle-to-long-term, either Japan or China may gravitate to Anglosphere. China simply to counter Japan. And Japan to have good relations with its neighbors and for trade. So having a foot in both is good policy.
Can Mussolini and Wagner get an anti-Soviet proclamation from the Vatican, condemning communist atrocities, persecutions of christians... ? And use Turkey to agitate Soviet Muslims ?
The Vatican could help to make Operation Hermann more popular / less unpopular in the USA.
Even better : a joint proclamation from the Vatican, the Protestant churches (in Germany), the Danish and Bulgarian national churches.
It will be hard to criticize an intervention to "protect religious liberty and protect oppressed christians" as imperialism if churches support it.
What happened to Palestine, its Zionists and Arabs ?
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The entirety of the ETL is participating, to varying degrees, as will Japan. China I'm not sure yet.
The Axis propaganda apparatus will be looking to find all the support it can from religious organizations, which will be covered subsequently.
Communal violence in Palestine is somewhat higher compared to OTL due to the weaker British position, but is otherwise similar.
Great update. Would love to see some detail on the non-German forces participating.
Awesome update as always. So on the one hand we have Stalin and the Red Army not being caught by surprise as in OTL. But on the other we have the USSR being under attack from 3 directions by coordinated and most importantly well supplied troops. Very much looking forward to seeing how this plays out.
Has Wagner mapped out the gains that each of the Eastern(including Japan in the far East) ETL members will be getting once the SU is defeated? I'm sure each of these members is eagerly anticipating their new territorial gains after the SU is defeated. Can you give us a little taste of what the new borders would be like? (I'm sure Turkey wasn't the only one to inquire "what's in it for us?")
Also is Portugal part of the ETL? I can't remember. If so, what ties are happening between Portugal and Brazil? This would be the most likely place where German influence would start, provided they have a "foot in the door".
Also is Portugal part of the ETL? I can't remember. If so, what ties are happening between Portugal and Brazil? This would be the most likely place where German influence would start, provided they have a "foot in the door".
Well, Germany trying to have influence in Brazil (or anywhere in America) is NOT a good idea. If you're Germany at that time, you don't want to do ANYTHING that MIGHT make the USA unhappy with you (if you can avoid it). Touching to American continent (which was seen by the USA as their big sphere of influence) is a no-no.
Also, having Portugal as a neutral can be useful. If there is ever important tension between ETL and Anglo-Americans, Portugal can help to mend fences, having some ties with Spain, Italy and Germany (Salazar supported Franco along with Mussolini and Wagner), while having an old alliance and ties with Britain.
If there are important tensions with Anglo-Americans, and an embargo for example, Portugal can also be used as a middleman to trade anywhere.
Also, if the Soviet Union is beaten, I expect Turkey to take influence over Azerbaijan, which will allow the Turks to reach control the Chechens, Ingushs and Daghestanis. Basically, Turkey would "protect" Caspian Sea Muslim peoples.
I expect Germany to "protect" Armenia and Georgia. Not least, because the Armenians might fight like mad for Stalin if they fear the Turks taking them over. Also, WWI plans included Georgia in German zone. Which makes sense, because Armenia and Georgia are on Black Sea, behind Ukraine and Circassia.
Even the Turks themselves might not want to "protect" Armenia and Georgia, christian countries, that will be more trouble to them than they're worth.
If Soviets fall, Persia will get back its independence and become a member of the Axis. Iraq (already member of the Axis) might use the occasion to take the Chott-el-Arab.
Central Asia might become a loose protectorate / vassal-ally to the Germans, allowing them to have Luftwaffe and Wehrmacht bases there, and threaten Russia at any moment, and to exploit the local resources (for a reasonable price). The Germans will never be able to directly and heavily control Central Asia like they can do in Ukraine or Caucasus, because there is the Urals and distance in between.
And of course, Japan will want to make Mongolia a protectorate (with Greater Mongolia), but with lighter control than in Manchuria (because logistics, again). Japan will also want to take over Vladivostok, and any resource-rich area in Eastern Siberia (either under direct control, or "Mongolian" control).
This Japan seem more reasonable than OTL. So, they may not try to have Kamtchatka, because if would make the US nervous and be unnecessary expense.
Germany herself, of course, will want influence over the Baltic countries, Byelorussia, Ukraine, Crimea, and likely Finland (including Eastern Karelia), Circassia, Armenia, Georgia, Central Asia and Persia as well. With heavy influence for Byelorussia, Ukraine and Baltics, and light for all other countries.
If vanquished Russia is allowed to have any military at all, there surely will be huge demilitarized zones in Russian territory, at all borders (including with Japanese Empire, Turkey and Central Asia).
Finally, I know that the Soviets have many disadvantages there compared to OTL. But they also have some advantages. Finland is invaded, which protects Leningrad, and Sweden won't join (at first at least). Soviet Union will likely not be surprised, but expecting an attack. Soviets will be more prepared, with fighting Finland longer (long enough to conquer it), and fighting Britain, Persia and Afghanistan. And the Soviets still have a huge industry, lots and lots of resources and manpower, and can retreat behind the Ural.
So, personnally, I don't presume that the Axis will simply win. There is a good chance of that, but no certainty.
Also, having Portugal as a neutral can be useful. If there is ever important tension between ETL and Anglo-Americans, Portugal can help to mend fences, having some ties with Spain, Italy and Germany (Salazar supported Franco along with Mussolini and Wagner), while having an old alliance and ties with Britain.
If there are important tensions with Anglo-Americans, and an embargo for example, Portugal can also be used as a middleman to trade anywhere.
Also, if the Soviet Union is beaten, I expect Turkey to take influence over Azerbaijan, which will allow the Turks to reach control the Chechens, Ingushs and Daghestanis. Basically, Turkey would "protect" Caspian Sea Muslim peoples.
I expect Germany to "protect" Armenia and Georgia. Not least, because the Armenians might fight like mad for Stalin if they fear the Turks taking them over. Also, WWI plans included Georgia in German zone. Which makes sense, because Armenia and Georgia are on Black Sea, behind Ukraine and Circassia.
Even the Turks themselves might not want to "protect" Armenia and Georgia, christian countries, that will be more trouble to them than they're worth.
If Soviets fall, Persia will get back its independence and become a member of the Axis. Iraq (already member of the Axis) might use the occasion to take the Chott-el-Arab.
Central Asia might become a loose protectorate / vassal-ally to the Germans, allowing them to have Luftwaffe and Wehrmacht bases there, and threaten Russia at any moment, and to exploit the local resources (for a reasonable price). The Germans will never be able to directly and heavily control Central Asia like they can do in Ukraine or Caucasus, because there is the Urals and distance in between.
And of course, Japan will want to make Mongolia a protectorate (with Greater Mongolia), but with lighter control than in Manchuria (because logistics, again). Japan will also want to take over Vladivostok, and any resource-rich area in Eastern Siberia (either under direct control, or "Mongolian" control).
This Japan seem more reasonable than OTL. So, they may not try to have Kamtchatka, because if would make the US nervous and be unnecessary expense.
Germany herself, of course, will want influence over the Baltic countries, Byelorussia, Ukraine, Crimea, and likely Finland (including Eastern Karelia), Circassia, Armenia, Georgia, Central Asia and Persia as well. With heavy influence for Byelorussia, Ukraine and Baltics, and light for all other countries.
If vanquished Russia is allowed to have any military at all, there surely will be huge demilitarized zones in Russian territory, at all borders (including with Japanese Empire, Turkey and Central Asia).
Finally, I know that the Soviets have many disadvantages there compared to OTL. But they also have some advantages. Finland is invaded, which protects Leningrad, and Sweden won't join (at first at least). Soviet Union will likely not be surprised, but expecting an attack. Soviets will be more prepared, with fighting Finland longer (long enough to conquer it), and fighting Britain, Persia and Afghanistan. And the Soviets still have a huge industry, lots and lots of resources and manpower, and can retreat behind the Ural.
So, personnally, I don't presume that the Axis will simply win. There is a good chance of that, but no certainty.
There's a good chance that Stalin knowing the Germans are going to attack will work against him, he might deploy more troops to the borders where they most likely suffer the full wrath of the opening blitzkrieg and end up being killed in battle or taken prisoners.
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Agreed and I brought this point up in a past post about the US and how touchy they will be about the American hemisphere. However trying to get business contacts and trade established from the ETL and Brazil was more of my thought process.
I also think you're spot on with Portugal being a "neutral" is more valuable in this type of diplomacy then if they were part of the ETL.
Well, in OTL there was a brazilian section of the nazi party with more than two thousand members and some nazi propaganda among the german population.
Sure but if the Germans aren't actually sponsoring or manipulating local nazi parties, the US will be fine with it.
But it wasn't a local party, it was a section of the german party completely under the control of the leadership of the NSDAP through the Auslands-Organisation, so much that only germans born in Germany could be fully registered members. I think that it was tolerated because of the good relations that Brazil had with Germany at the time and it was too small to bother the US. Maybe the american grip over South America wasn't so tight at the time.