Vapor Trails - An alternate timeline

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A couple of notes on the premise of this timeline.

First be wary of popular rocket history there are a lot of myths floating around that are not true. Particularly on the American side.

For example you will need to account for the actions of Robert Truax and Charlie Bossert.

I recommend getting Countdown, A History of Space Flight by Heppenheimer. It traces clearly the different treads of development that lead to the situation with rocketry in our timeline. From it you should get plenty of possibilities for a timeline that removed Von Braun and Korolev.

http://www.amazon.com/Countdown-A-H...&keywords=countdown+a+history+of+space+flight

Some things to look up

WAC Corporal
Viking Rocket
Navaho
MX-774
NII-88
Glushko
Chelomei

Nutshell summary
Basically the primary driver of rockets was to loft Nuclear Bombs. The Russian had a strong group of native rocket scientists however were are on the margins for much of the 30s and the war. After the war Stalin insitituted a crash effort on everything that could carry a nuclear bomb including rockets. As part of this was reconstituting the production of V-2s which in OTL was spearheaded by Gottrup.

But thanks to Glushko, Korolev, and Chelomei the russians had a top notch group capable of producing original design. The German got the V-2 back into production but other design quickly came on-line. Korolev won most the personal battles and got to build the R-7 which launched Sputnik.

The Soviet Bombs were heavy so the rockets were designed with a high payload capability. Which proved fortuitous in the early space race.

The American got their ICBM projects started in the early 1950s and concurrently a reduced weight Bomb design was developed which meant that the resulting rockets had no where near the lifting power of the Soviet rockets. Atlas was the first ICBM project with the Titan 1 being developed concurrently as a backup by different companies.

I don't see the Americian Rocket effort of the late 40s and late 50s altering much because of Von Braun's death. His Redstone Arensal was an ARMY installation and out of the main path of ICBM development. There would be probably be a post-war slowdown as the V-2 was useful as a sounding rocket and kept the rocket community occupied until the next round of designs were built. Without it they would still be working but on different projects probably more types of missiles.

The biggest butterflies by far would be in the Soviet program. Korolev was a genius bar none. I feel that Korolev dramatic jump from the R-3 to the R-7 would have not taken place and a much more gradual ramp up would have taken place with the first ICBM launched in the early 60s.

If you want serious butterflies you need to reach back into the 30s and start offing some folks like Goddard, Oberth, and others.
 
Thank you, I was honestly not really aware of a lot of the things you posted. Specifically people such as Truax and Bossert.

My belief is that without the American government seeing the results that the Germans had with their programs such as the V-2, there wouldn't have been anywhere near as much of an effort to develop rocketry as their was in OTL. People like Goddard and those you mentioned had a lot of excellent ideas, but without official support they aren't getting anywhere. Also, keep in mind that I don't plan on eliminating advancements in rocketry entirely. That would be impossible without doing something like completely destroying society and industry in a WW3 type scenario. Rather I plan on setting back the development of ICBMs and such by about 15-20 years or so. I could foresee a situation where in 1970 of this timeline, somebody presents a proposal for something like Redstone, but it doesn't get accepted because the Air Force already has bombers that go Mach 3.5 at 90,000 feet, and they don't really see a need for a relatively short-ranged, expensive system.

Regarding Glushko, Chelomei, and others on the Soviet side, I have some tentative plans worked out for them. Possibly involving some third country other than the USA and USSR.

Navaho is going to feature at some point, and I mentioned an MX-774 analog, except to do with cruise missiles instead of ICBMs.
 
Thank you, I was honestly not really aware of a lot of the things you posted. Specifically people such as Truax and Bossert.

My belief is that without the American government seeing the results that the Germans had with their programs such as the V-2, there wouldn't have been anywhere near as much of an effort to develop rocketry as their was in OTL.

There wasn't much interest in OTL even with the V-2. There will be butterflies but with Truax and Bossart American development will continue much like it did in OTL until the 1950s. Basically small time projects involving sounding rockets that are a sideshow compared the work on cruise missiles and bombers. The big butterfly would be von Braun and the Army Ballistic Missile program. However the Private, Corporal, WAC-Corporal, and Sergeant were all programs predating the end of the war. With the V-2 there is never a Bumper program that combined the WAC-Corporal and the V-2.

There would be an impact on the Naval Research Laboratory Viking program. Viking didn't depend on the existence of V-2 but the V-2 showed the NRL what improvements to focus on.
 
I'm wondering if maybe you could have an earlier POD in which the A1 is jointly developed by both the Germans and the Soviets. This way, when the launch kills Werner von Braun, Stalin has Sergei Korolev and the rest of the Soviet rocket/missile program liquidated for being a waste of time and resources. Goddard on the other hand, I don't have a clue. :eek:

Have Goddard get an earlier more aggressive throat cancer say in 1933 that kills him before he can get funding for the next stage of his research. would set back rocket development.

After all he died in 1945 so an earlier cancer is possible.
 
LC why did the war have to go the same way.

We could have had the Amerika Bomber!!!:mad::mad::mad:

I just finished the rest of this TL and it is possible that we could end up with viable space plane and sub orbital bombers.

Whoe needs a nuke when a hunk of iron dropped from the upper atmosphere can have a similar effect.

Ps I'm still made about no Amerika bomber.
 
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I just finished the rest of this TL and it is possible that we could end up with viable space plane and sub orbital bombers.

Have you been reading my notes?:p




While I do see the appeal of the Amerika Bomber, I don't think Germany, even without spending resources on the V-2, would have been able to get a viable program going. Even if they had, it would have been in such small numbers that it would have had virtually no effect.
 
17 February 1951: UN Forces launch a counterattack against PLA and KPA forces. By this point, they have been forced south to near the 3th parallel.

February 1951: B-47 begins entering USAF service. It represents a significant performance improvement over the B-29.

26 March 1951: UN forces (again) recapture Seoul.

9 April 1951: Truman fires MacArthur.

19 April 1951: The US Navy issues a requirement for a seaplane capable of carrying an atomic bomb over a range of 2500 km, while operating at Mach .9 at low altitude. Following the cancellation of the USS United States in favor of the Air Force B-36, the Navy is desperate for a strategic weapons platform.

July 1951: Ceasefire negotiations begin. They will continue intermittently until the end of the war. By now, front lines have stabilized near the prewar borders, with fierce fighting continuing between UN and Communist forces.

February 1952: MiG-17 begins entering Soviet squadron service. Despite North Korean requests, the Soviet Union refuses to deploy the aircraft to Korea.

21 February 1952: First flight of the Soviet Tu-16 (previously designated Tu-88) bomber. The aircraft is the first jet-powered strategic bomber in Soviet service. It is capable of carrying a freefall nuclear bomb, or one Kh-5 air-launched cruise missile. The Kh-5 is a refinement of the earlier Kh-3, and has a range of 180 km with a 1000 kg warhead.

13 March 1952: First flight of the B-52 bomber. The aircraft, which was initially designed as a straight-winged turboprop powered bomber, has evolved into a jet-powered, swept wing design.

May 5 1952: Recognizing that the CF-100 will be less useful against future Soviet bombers, the RCAF submits the Final Report of the All-Weather Interceptor Requirements Team to Avro Canada.

May 7 1952: Bombing raids begin against North Korea’s hydroelectric infrastructure. Most of the raids are conducted at night, due to the B-29’s vulnerability to North Korean MiGs.

28 July 1952: First flight of aircraft VX770, the first prototype of the Avro 698 bomber aircraft. The massive, delta-winged aircraft is completely unlike any other aircraft yet seen. Most notable is its wing planform, as well as the lack of a single vertical tail. Instead, there are only two small rudders at the outboard section of the wings, with the end result that the design closely resembles a flying wing. The VX770 displays surprising maneuverability for its size, and handles excellently. The aircraft will ultimately be accepted into RAF service as the Vulcan.

21 September 1952: First flight of the Douglas X-3 experimental aircraft. The aircraft, designed to reach speeds of up to Mach 3, is severely underpowered, and a failure in its intended role.

7 November 1952: First flight of the Soviet Tu-95, the loudest aircraft in existence. The first flight of the prototype coincides with the 35th anniversary of the beginning of the October Revolution.

5 December 1952: First flight of the Handley Page HP.80 bomber aircraft. The aircraft, later renamed the Victor, will end up forming a significant portion of the British strategic deterrent, along with the Vulcan.

6 April 1953: First flight of the North American F-100, a significantly improved version of the F-86. The F-100 is capable of reaching supersonic speeds in level flight, unlike its predecessor.

6 June 1953: The Saab 210, an experimental aircraft designed to test the double-delta wing planform, makes an appearance at Stockholm’s 700th anniversary celebrations.

10 June 1953: Soviet engineer Valentin Glushko and his colleagues at RNII successfully test the R-1, a liquid-fueled rocket with a range of 40km. The Soviet military establishment remains uninterested, and sees the rockets as useless compared to existing strategic bombers. Shortly after the test, Glushko meets with the PLAAF observer contingent, who appear interested in his work.

9 August 1953: Final ceasefire signed, ended armed portion of Korean conflict. UN military forces (including ROK) suffer nearly 300,000 dead. The North Korean and Chinese death toll is almost six times as much.

September 1953: Development begins on the Lockheed CL-282, a high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft intended for overflights of the Soviet Union.

14 September 1953: First flight of the MiG-19, a supersonic follow-on to the MiG-17. The aircraft is heavily armed, with 3 30mm cannons.

16 September 1953: First flight of the F-102 interceptor. The aircraft’s performance is highly disappointing, with the aircraft limited to subsonic speeds.

October 1953: Eugen Sanger publishes a paper describing the thermodynamic loads associated with atmospheric reentry and flight at high-altitudes and Mach numbers. The paper also describes possible methods of reducing heat flux, such as regenerative cooling of the airframe and engines.
 
TTL Vulcan
Avvulcan_1_2.png
 

Sior

Banned
I'm wondering if maybe you could have an earlier POD in which the A1 is jointly developed by both the Germans and the Soviets. This way, when the launch kills Werner von Braun, Stalin has Sergei Korolev and the rest of the Soviet rocket/missile program liquidated for being a waste of time and resources. Goddard on the other hand, I don't have a clue. :eek:

You do know that Britain had rocket research as well?
Look into Z batteries or air launched rockets, mattress, land mattress etc.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/46553920/British-Rockets-and-Fuzes
 
How is the status of jet propulsion for commercial airplanes in this timeline? The de Havilland Comet and its accidents happen as OTL?
 
Commercial aviation is proceeding roughly as OTL, I don't think the butterfiles would really have affected it yet. The Comet accidents will probably still happen in some form, although possibly not in the exact same circumstances. That specific design flaw is going to bite them eventually though.

Probably going to have an update later tonight or tomorrow.
 
3 March 1954: The Lavochkin Design Bureau begins development of an intercontinental cruise missile, codenamed Burya. The vehicle will be boosted to speed by a group of eight solid rocket boosters, then ignite its ramjets to deliver a nuclear payload over intercontinental range.

8 March 1954: First test of the prototype Lockheed F-104 Starfighter. The prototype is underpowered, as the planned J-79 engine is not yet available.

April 1954: Development of Samolet 105, a supersonic successor to the Tu-16, begins at the Tupolev design bureau.

May 1954: The Myaisishchev M-4 makes its first appearance. Considered by NATO to be equivalent to the B-52, its operation radius is actually much smaller. Very few aircraft are produced, as the Tu-95 is considered to be superior in most respects.

26 July 1954: First flight of the English Electric P1A transonic research aircraft.

5 October 1954: First flight of the British Fairey Delta 2 high speed test aircraft.

17 November 1954: First flight of the revised F-102A. The aircraft has been redesigned with an “area ruled” fuselage, as well as a more powerful version of the J-57 engine. It is now capable of reaching supersonic speeds in level flight, and has a service ceiling of 55000 feet (16700 meters).

February 1955: MiG-19 begins entering squadron service.

8 April 1955: First test launch of the SM-64 Navaho ramjet powered intercontinental cruise missile. The missile explodes 7 seconds after liftoff due to failure of one of the booster rockets.

9 May 1955: West Germany is formally incorporated into NATO. The Soviet Union, following this, and the rebuff of their own attempt to join NATO, moves to protect itself against what it sees as a growing threat in Western Europe.

14 May 1955: The Warsaw Pact, an alliance of Communist states led by the Soviet Union, is formed in response to the integration of West Germany into NATO.

7 June 1955: In a joint CIA-RAF mission, a heavily modified Canberra bomber is sent on photoreconnaissance mission to the Soviet missile testing facility at Kapustin Yar. Despite flying at an altitude of over 55000 feet, the aircraft is hit multiple times by ground fire, and crashes inside Soviet territory, with the loss of the entire crew. The shootdown, which is later referred to as the “Astrakhan Incident”, results in a major diplomatic crisis, and severe deterioration in relations between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. It also illustrates the vulnerability of existing aircraft to Soviet defense systems. Also, many believe that the planning for the mission had been compromised by Soviet agents.

3 July 1955: First flight of the Martin P6M. This massive seaplane, capable of speeds of Mach .9 at low altitude, is seen by many in the Navy as its best option for strategic relevance in the nuclear age.

9 June 1955: In an internal memo, Lockheed Skunk Works chief engineer Kelly Johnson orders that the CL-282 be redesign to operate at altitudes in excess of 75000 feet (22800 meters).

12 June 1955: The first Burya test vehicle is launched from Kapustin Yar. The vehicle breaks apart 85 seconds into the flight.

19 June 1955: A second launch of the SM-64 is attempted. The test article breaks up 3 minutes into the test, while traveling at nearly Mach 3. A third launch 5 days later ends in a similar failure.

1 July 1955: The Fairey Delta 2 reaches a speed of 1186 miles per hour (1909 kph), utterly demolishing the old airspeed record. The RAF makes inquiries into developing an improved version of the Delta 2 as a high speed interceptor.

September 1955: Avro Canada purchases ten J67 engines, for use in its interceptor project. The J67 is an American derivative of the British Olympus engine which powers the Vulcan. The engines are delivered over the course of the next two months. The J67 is also being considered for an improved derivative of the American F-102.

8 October 1955: The second Burya test is mostly successful, with the only fault being minor guidance issues. The cruise missile is assigned a preliminary designation of “R-6”.

19 October 1955: First flight of the Swedish J-35 interceptor aircraft. The first prototype is not equipped with an afterburner and is therefore limited to subsonic speeds.

Late 1955: Deployment of the S-25 surface to air missile begins around Moscow. Due to the systems size and lack of mobility, it will only be used in the Moscow area. Development continues on the S-75, a more mobile system, which is expected to become operational in 1956-1957.

Late 1955: The CIM-10 Bomarc surface to air missile enters USAF service. The missile is powered by 2 ramjet engines and has a range of over 200 miles (320 km).

11 January 1956: The first production-standard Avro Vulcan is completed.

3 February 1956: First successful test of the SM-64. The missile is launched, accelerates to Mach 3 at 80,000 feet, and splashes down in the Pacific after travelling over its full 5,000 mile range. Tests continue, and the USAF plans to have the missile operational by 1957.
 
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Might the nuclear ramjet powered Supersonic Low Altitude Missile (SLAM) find an operational use in this timeline?
 
PLUTO is a no go. It might have been strategically viable in this situation, if not for the whole shitting radiation everywhere issue.

Navaho picture should be fixed.
 
3 March 1956: First official flight of the redesigned CL-282 design, which has been redesignated the U-2. The actual first flight of the aircraft occurred three weeks earlier, during a taxi test at a speed of 65 knots. (1)



April 1956: The AIM-9B Sidewinder, one of the first IR-guided air to air missiles, enters US Navy service.


17 May 1956: The U-2 reaches an altitude of 81000 feet (24700 meters). This would be a record for the aircraft’s FAI weight class, if the design were not completely classified.


18 June 1956: A pair of Soviet Tu-16s violates Japanese airspace, overflying the city of Abashiri in Hokkaido. The aircraft manage to escape to Soviet airspace before American fighters are able to intercept them. Japan files a diplomatic protest, to no avail. In the wake of the incident, Japan begins to pursue a domestic air defence capability.


17 October 1956: First flight of the B-58 strategic bomber. The B-58 is notable both for its ability to fly at over Mach 2, and its delta wing.


24 October 1956: First test of the F-106, an improved version of the F-102 design. The USAF is planning on ordering up to 1,000 of these new interceptors. The Air Force attempts to sell the F-106 to Canada, but is rebuffed.



November 1956: Suez Crisis: In response to Egyptian nationalization of the Suez Canal, French, British, and Israeli forces launch an invasion of Egypt. However, Soviet and American diplomatic pressure quickly forces them to back down.



December 1956: The RAF chooses the Fairey Delta III, a development of the Delta II research aircraft, as the winner of its F155 requirement. The aircraft is expected to enter service in 1961, replacing the subsonic Javelin. The CF-105 had also been considered, but was rejected due to not being a British aircraft.


5 February 1957: The CF-105 Arrow is publicly displayed for the first time. Over 15,000 Canadians attend the event. The RCAF officially orders 200 aircraft, to begin entering service in 1960 once the Orenda Iroquois engine is fully developed.



March 1957: In live fire testing, the USAF IR guided AIM-4 Falcon missile performs poorly, recording a hit rate of only 27%. As a result, the USAF begins adoption of the AIM-9, which has proven to be more reliable.


7 July 1957: An F-106 prototype reaches a maximum speed of Mach 2.39 at an altitude of 45000 feet (13700 meters).



16 September 1957: The Arrow Mk I makes its first flight. This version is powered by the J75, which is being used until the Iroquois engine finishes development.


4 October 1957: Nothing of great significance occurs.


Late 1957 / Early 1958: Work begins on a successor to the U-2, under the codename “Archangel”.


Early 1958: JASDF officers meet with Avro Canada, expressing interest in purchasing the CF-105.



16 July 1958: The P.1B becomes the first British aircraft to exceed Mach 2. The interceptor version, known as the Lightning, is expected to enter service within a year.


July 1958: The PLAAF begins development of the DF-1, a ballistic missile with a range of 180 miles (300 km).



Late 1958: The USAF and North American Aviation begin preliminary studies into a research aircraft designed to operate at hypersonic speeds (Mach 5+).


22 October 1958: Arrow Mk II RL-209 reaches a speed of Mach 2.36 at an altitude of 61000 feet (18600 meters).



December 1958: The Martin P6M2 nuclear strike aircraft begins production. The US Navy initially orders 36 aircraft, with a possibility of acquiring more in the future.


17 December 1958: The first production standard Arrow Mk II is completed. DeHavilland Canada purchases a license to manufacture the AIM-9, to be used on the Arrow, to complement the radar-guided Falcon missiles that will be the interceptor’s main armament.



January 1959: The JASDF orders 42 Arrow Mk IIs.


7 January 1959: First flight of the Soviet Tu-22 bomber. The aircraft offers a large increase in performance over the Tu-16, and is capable of supersonic speeds. It is also capable of carrying the Kh-17 missile, which is equipped with a nuclear warhead of up to 1 MT yield. (2)


9 February 1959: The Fairey Delta F.1 interceptor makes its first flight.


(1) This actually happened, the first flight of the U-2 did occur during a high speed taxi test.
(2) OTL Kh-22 / AS-4
 
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