Well, the good news is the Yellow Banner will be beaten at some point (What I hope for). And I don't see the PRC surviving at all when the USSR goes into the grave.
Twilight of the Red Tsar
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Well, the good news is the Yellow Banner will be beaten at some point (What I hope for). And I don't see the PRC surviving at all when the USSR goes into the grave.
Think people are being a bit overoptimistic on the state of China. The WMD's will not only have killed a lot of people but those left will tend to be less educated ( most university's will have been destroyed, social cohesion lost etc ) , more rural and important areas abandoned due to contamination. China is probably back to its 1900 levels due to dislocation of the economy with a sense of hopeless that causes birthrates to plummet ( see OTL eastern europe post WW2 vs the west ).
Even with aid ( and if the US is also buttressing Europe it will be limited, not even the US has infinite resources and china is less important than Europe to the US at this time ) it will take a long time for china to sort itself out. There is a good chance that it will stay divided just due to exhaustion on all sides.
Even with aid ( and if the US is also buttressing Europe it will be limited, not even the US has infinite resources and china is less important than Europe to the US at this time ) it will take a long time for china to sort itself out. There is a good chance that it will stay divided just due to exhaustion on all sides.
China is too broken at this point to be better off than OTL. For starters, it isn't even over yet. The PRC still has to fall, which will take another few million with it; even more if the USSR tries to play some games. Then you have the Taoist maniacs tearing the country to pieces, who will have to be dealt with soon (and I imagine Chiang will focus on the PRC first due to his regret about not finishing them off before the Japanese invaded). Taking down the YB will take a lot of work; I can easily imagine a Jonestown stretching across cities when their Empire begins to crumble, and they cannot imagine a world where the 'demons' have won. So just to begin, millions more people are dead, not to mention the millions of refugees who won't return to China for various reasons (the resulting social fallout will lead to the surrounding regions hating the Chinese more). Finally, the breakaway territories are not exactly going to be easily integrated into China, if ever. I don't think the US will go to war to force Tibet to be re-annexed to China. So China is much smaller to begin with.
With most major cities either devastated conventionally (which is bad enough) or Nuclear (and I doubt Stalin's nukes were particularly kind with respect to radiation) the infrastructure to rebuild the country simply doesn't exist. This isn't to mention that the education system has been obliterated, and the people who were most likely to escape death were poor farmers far out in the country, who won't exactly be the best educated people to rebuild the nation. Add endless diseases and plagues roving the country, there's not really a great base to rebuild.
And lastly, who on Earth is China ever going to trust again? The Europeans screwed them in the Colonial era, the Japanese fucked them in the War, the Americans brought nukes to them, and the Russians nearly obliterated them as a people. China at the end of this will be virulently xenophobic, blaming the whole world for their ills. Considering how xenophobic the Chinese can be in OTL, the average Chinese person will not exactly be welcoming to foreigner investors (probably even returning refugees). This means less market-friendly policies so the big economic boom probably won't happen. The Chinese national character is simply not in the state to open itself to the world.
With most major cities either devastated conventionally (which is bad enough) or Nuclear (and I doubt Stalin's nukes were particularly kind with respect to radiation) the infrastructure to rebuild the country simply doesn't exist. This isn't to mention that the education system has been obliterated, and the people who were most likely to escape death were poor farmers far out in the country, who won't exactly be the best educated people to rebuild the nation. Add endless diseases and plagues roving the country, there's not really a great base to rebuild.
And lastly, who on Earth is China ever going to trust again? The Europeans screwed them in the Colonial era, the Japanese fucked them in the War, the Americans brought nukes to them, and the Russians nearly obliterated them as a people. China at the end of this will be virulently xenophobic, blaming the whole world for their ills. Considering how xenophobic the Chinese can be in OTL, the average Chinese person will not exactly be welcoming to foreigner investors (probably even returning refugees). This means less market-friendly policies so the big economic boom probably won't happen. The Chinese national character is simply not in the state to open itself to the world.
Oh India and China have their own grudges. And IF India becomes TTL's China-level great power, expect China to be extremely jealous.
True, but a good number of them iOTL are post-POD. I don't know the exact borders of Tibet iTTL, but I'm not even sure if China without Tibet borders India, and if it does, it is certainly in Yellow Banners controlled China (given the Yellow Banners attack into Burma). If India supports the ROC's efforts to crush the Yellow Banners, I'm betting a good number of the issues will be forgotten.
Also, how far south did the US drop nukes?
Lost Freeway
Banned
Are you fucking joking? People are not gonna forget the Nazis just because of what Stalin did.
I suspect that people will just automatically connect Dictatorships or extremists with genocide in their minds
The Holocaust will be even more prominent than IOTL (if that's possible). There's a strong element of shame involved, with most of the world feeling bad that they let something so horrible happen twice. The historiography of the Holocaust is also going to be different. People ITTL will see the two Holocausts as the culmination of anti-Semitic campaigns going back to Biblical times.
Bookmark1995
Banned
As horrible as the second Holocaust is, I wouldn't call it the culmination of anything.
Remember, on Israel's doorstep is an Islamic Republic run by a bunch of Jew-hating mad men. Unless those fundamentalists are sane enough comprehend the cost, and the international fallout, of an attack on Israel, you'll see an ITTL Six-Day War, one which can easily be compared to the story of Exodus. (The Jewish State vs. the Land of the Pharaohs)
Secondly, ITTL, you wrote that a Klansman was so antisemitic, he deliberately challenged a Holocaust denial law all the way to the Supreme Court. Sure, the Supreme Court upheld the law, but there are still going to be white power loons who try to connect Judaism with Communism.
So yeah, I don't believe the troubles facing the Jewish people ITTL are in anyway over.
Bookmark1995
Banned
Well, the Mainland Chinese aren't calling the shots, but the people who found refuge on the island of Taiwan, who have quite a love affair with the US. I agree with you that xenophobia is going to be off the charts, but it is not going to be the official policy of the ROC types who will run it. Not only that, but a lot of investment is going to come from the Hong Kong business community, which will love the capitalist environment Chiang will create.
Japan was nuked by the US, but with enough foreign aid, they were swayed to the side of the West. I'm sure American aid to China could sort out some anger. At the very least, the Chinese despise the Russians and Mao more than they do America.
With China being Syria on Steroids at best, it isn't really conducive to foreign investment, not for a century.
India, OTOH...
India's problem is that it still faces the issues (such as the License Raj and a semi-planned economy) that inhibited its growth IOTL. Actually this TL is somewhat of an Americawank, although it's mainly due to factors outside of America's control. China and India aren't going to be competitive for a long time, and the Soviet Union is rapidly slipping out of superpower status. That means that America is going to have a much longer period as the sole superpower.
Right. The events ITTL haven't massively effected India's economic or social structures, which are the main causes of India's growth problems.
Lost Freeway
Banned
IIRC, America still views anything to the left of themselves as communist. That may stand in the way of any Indo-American rapprochement.
Well there is always Europe, ITTL between the syndacalist being a strong political force and the various nation keeping more piece of their various empire and mantaining a more active military and political presence around the world...can make people in washington a little uneasy, expecially when it become clear that economically Western Europe it's quickly become a serious competitor (expecially if the integration process it's a little quicker than OTL as the approval of the EDC demonstrated).
After binge reading for a few days I got to say that this is a really great timeline Napoleon IV, one of the best on the site. I love how Stalin simply surviving has fucked up the whole world and that the Soviet Union is finally revealed as the true monsters that they were. The Sino-Soviet War is my favorite part of the timeline and I love seeing the KMT go on a successful crusade for the liberation of China. It's also amazing to see the effects that Stalin had on his lackeys that even in a coma they feared he could take their heads at any time. In hindsight when Stalin was in his last months the Soviet Inner Circle could've easily moved in and taken him out, but Stalin has striked too much fear into their hearts and they can't do any unified action without him alive. I do wonder though if today there would be debates in Ukraine ITTL on who was worse and which situation would've been better, Stalin or Hitler. Because now in terms of deaths, Stalin can definitely be seen as worse than Hitler, especially with the nuking of China.
The one major part of the thread that I find totally unrealistic is the fact that the U.S just agreed to the continued existence of North Korea. They lost thousands of men when China entered the campaign as they were so close to unification, a unified Korea would be a huge asset to the U.S as they gain more resources and prove that rollback is a success, and not gaining it would've possibly lead to Stevenson becoming President on backlash. The U.S could've easily pushed for this goal as they had Manchuria in nuclear ruin, and if the USSR would not interfere in the bombing of China, they wouldn't declare WWIII just because Korea is entirely under U.S influence. I don't even see how Eisenhower would've wanted this as it would've given him a total victory millitary, and make his popularity in the U.S soar for reelectoin before he dropped out due to health concerns, a U.S victory would've also lead to more allies joining them and increased revolutions in the Warsaw Pact. Why didn't South Korea invade the North during the Sino-Soviet War anyways? It would've been the perfect opportunity as the USSR was entirely focused on China and could not have been ready for war with the U.S. While the timeline is great, the whole handling of Korea after the war with the exception of the Kim dynasty fleeing, is entirely illogical.
Constructive Criticism aside, I'm really looking forward to the end of the Warsaw Pact, possible Chinese Unification, and Knowland's reelectoin. If the Democrats do elect a President in the future by the way, I think it would be Scoop Jackson. Jackson was a New Deal Democrat who could fill the role of Johnson domestically, he was pro-civil rights which would give them the black vote that the Republican Party has a monopoly on now, and he was the most hawkish Democrat against the USSR, something that would make him very popular against pacifists like McGoven since the Soviet Union is now seen as worse than Nazi Germany.
The one major part of the thread that I find totally unrealistic is the fact that the U.S just agreed to the continued existence of North Korea. They lost thousands of men when China entered the campaign as they were so close to unification, a unified Korea would be a huge asset to the U.S as they gain more resources and prove that rollback is a success, and not gaining it would've possibly lead to Stevenson becoming President on backlash. The U.S could've easily pushed for this goal as they had Manchuria in nuclear ruin, and if the USSR would not interfere in the bombing of China, they wouldn't declare WWIII just because Korea is entirely under U.S influence. I don't even see how Eisenhower would've wanted this as it would've given him a total victory millitary, and make his popularity in the U.S soar for reelectoin before he dropped out due to health concerns, a U.S victory would've also lead to more allies joining them and increased revolutions in the Warsaw Pact. Why didn't South Korea invade the North during the Sino-Soviet War anyways? It would've been the perfect opportunity as the USSR was entirely focused on China and could not have been ready for war with the U.S. While the timeline is great, the whole handling of Korea after the war with the exception of the Kim dynasty fleeing, is entirely illogical.
Constructive Criticism aside, I'm really looking forward to the end of the Warsaw Pact, possible Chinese Unification, and Knowland's reelectoin. If the Democrats do elect a President in the future by the way, I think it would be Scoop Jackson. Jackson was a New Deal Democrat who could fill the role of Johnson domestically, he was pro-civil rights which would give them the black vote that the Republican Party has a monopoly on now, and he was the most hawkish Democrat against the USSR, something that would make him very popular against pacifists like McGoven since the Soviet Union is now seen as worse than Nazi Germany.
Which will probably led to events in the middle east having a possibility to escalate further without the fear of the USSR supporting the other side (TTL's Egypt pulling its embargo.)
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