Toyotomi Strikes South
- Thread starter mcdo
- Start date
Aside from that fact I think the Luzonians would be happy under the Japanese after a hundred years of Bruneian and Spanish domination..
They've long assumed that China couldn't/wouldn't spare resources. I'm personally skeptical, China can build a navy large enough to make Japan irrelevant in just years, they've done so on several occasions in history.
The question is would they do it over Taiwan and Luzon, and I think the discussion leans towards no. They might have a point; the Chinese overseas trade was private or done via foreign ships, the state only cared that it wasn't disrupted too badly.
I think that China wouldn't do anything unless Japan directly starts to challenge it. (Which is very likely at some point though IMO.)
I don't think Chinese would.
Why Chinese intervened in Korea is because once you conquer Korea you will have supply-logistic base and manpower on Mainland to launch attack against Chinese heartland. (same as did in OTL during WWII)
Taiwan is ,other hand, isolated Island and can't threaten Chinese Mainland. Also China wasn't maritime power and it was self-closed Empire, means they don't need sea trade. So they don't care if Taiwan was under Japanese and whether they will not trade with Spanish.
So I think, they won't seek adventure on Taiwan.
Faeelin
Banned
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH
This isn't true! China was sucking in tons of silver, which have now been cut off by an expansionist Japanese state!
Japan taking the phippines might cut off the flow of mexican silver. Why would taiwan do that?
Couldn't silver trade from Peru still continue even if Luzon is Japanese?
To judge from a map, Taiwan stands directly in the path of any trade.
I don't think it would be cut off, merely taxed, though the possibility of hostility in China to a rising challenger remains.
Hostility won't change the fact that China, in this period and since the end of Zheng He's voyages, doesn't have anything remotely resembling a navy while the Japanese, assuming they manage to take the Philippines and Taiwan and hold them, will most definitely have a solid navy to maintain their hold on the empire they've established.
No but the circumstances China would have to overcome, especially during the late Ming and early Qing period, are considerable. The Ming had ordered all shipyards and means of building large vessels along the coast destroyed when they scrapped the treasure fleet. As a result the only people in China with the means to build ships were private merchants and pirates.
During the period when Toyotomi is potentially pushing south was also when you had the reign of eunuch palace intrigue during the waning days of the Ming Dynasty. Decisive government action while Toyotomi is invading Taiwan and the Philippines seems very unlikely. Come 1644 or possibly sooner depending on butterflies the Manchu will sweep in and tear down the dying Ming Dynasty. Over the course of the next several decades the new Qing Dynasty was largely focused on consolidating their power over China before turning their attention outward. By the time China is in a position to do anything about Japanese maritime imperialism and colonialism the Japanese will already have a substantial lead in naval development, infrastructure, and technology over China who would be starting quite literally from scratch.
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Staying home and largely ignoring everything outside its borders, as in OTL. Ming China had no interest in Taiwan or the Philippines, much less the broader Pacific.
Of course, there could be knock-ons affecting this. For instance, suppose Japan is a major player in trade between China and the farther world - for instance, furs from Pacific America, which were sold at Canton. Now, OTL, there were Euro and American mariners doing this - Yankees from New England, for instance. But ISTM that they were regarded by the Chinese as, well, alien, and it was a long time before Chinese became seriously interested in where the stuff came from/went to.
Japanese are also alien to China, but not as much so - they have a partially similar script, share some religious ideas (Buddhism) and philosophy (Confucianism). So if there is contact between seafaring Japanese and China, the Chinese may be more likely to pick up on knowledge of the outer world and the potential profits of seafaring - and enter the maritime arena.
Also of course, Toyotomi's non-invasion of Korea will have immediate knock-ons for Chinese political developments and may avert or change the Manchu conquest.
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"Cut off"? What the hell are you talking about?
As I have already explained, the reason that Toyotomi and his advisors talked about taking these areas was so that they could profit from the trade.
They wouldn't cut off the trade at all. They would just profit from the imposts. It would only be in Japan's interest to continue the trade.
The trade will continue, and China has no reason to care. What does it matter to them that far-away trading posts are controlled by the Japanese instead of the Spanish or Dutch? All they care about is that Chinese merchants can make huge fortunes by selling china (the plates, not the nation) for silver. And that will continue.
I honestly don't see why this would engender any hostility in China.
elkarlo
Banned
Indeed. Also Southern Japanese would be mostly ok with moving to Taiwan/Ryukus, as they'd be used to most of the tropical/semi-tropical diseases encountered there.
Japan had the ability to produce ocean-going ships and would probably set up notable trade while colonizing a few choice locations. Taiwan, Sakhalin, the Aleutian islands, and maybe even part of the Kamchatka peninsula. They could also end up exploring down the North American coast with eventual settlement down to San Francisco or even Monterrey. Hawaii is also in the realm of possibility as are parts of Polynesia and eastern OTL Indonesia. New Zealand and Australia are also in the realm of possibility though not immediately. As for conquest, if the Phillippines are taken there would be Spanish traffic for at least a year coming in before anyone would be aware of the takeover. Spain might try to send a fleet for reconquest but her bases are rather distant and there would be significant atrophy (A Second Spanish Armada heading east instead of north could be interesting, as could a Japanese landing in North America as retribution). OTL Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia would be potential areas of conquest/influence as would Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia/Khmer, and maybe even Sri Lanka or Madagascar with time. Korea might still insulate itself but trade might be monopolized by Japan who could become an economic master of Koryeo while China would still loom large, an interesting scenario might be what Japan would do in the face of the fall of the Ming and rise of the Manchu...
Probably not in the immediate, as the only consequences would be "under China's radar," so to speak, but a Japan which creates permanent contact with foreign powers, rather than single Dutch outpost in Yokohama, and which also has the backing of military success is the start towards asserting itself as a great power in East Asia and elsewhere, would probably undergo increased exposure to westernization and modernization, which in the long run would result in Japan increasing in power relative to China, degrading the status of China as hegemon which OTL until the 19th century was the Chinese basis for foreign relations. Traces of this can still be seen today, as China attempts to assert regional hegemony in East Asia, to the distress of everybody else. Once Japan reaches the stage where it can compete equally with China, competition for regional hegemony would probably create conflict, if only due to China's need to assert themselves against a Japan which also desires to become regional hegemon, or even just an equal to China. It, AFAICS, would not be unlike the 19th century for Japan, with a more gradual modernization/westernization as contact with the West increases thanks to sitting athwart trade routes, instead of the breakneck catchup Japan did OTL, followed by the OTL struggles for supremacy in areas such as Korea and the Yellow and East China Seas. I think that if Japan doesn't withdraw into isolationism, and instead follows the West into modernization, this struggle is inevitable, if only because even then, many Japanese had no desire to remain forever in the shade of China. This merely speeds up the process.
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Surely you mean Joseon, as Goryeo had already ceased to exist by 1392. If Japan monopolizes trade within the four main islands, along with the Ryukyus and other islands such as Taiwan, Korea still has trade routes into China, which in turn has ones into Central and Southeast Asia, so the effects would not be particularly significant as a whole.
In addition, the Ming and Joseon would be better prepared to face the Manchu without an analogue of the Imjin War, so the Qing might not be established in this scenario.
Joseon is what I meant, thank you. And I put the "could" in place with the latter because it is a possibility, not a certainty. While Joseon trade can go through China there might still be trouble with the Qing that could prove troublesome regardless that could slow or stop it, making Japan's position in the country disproportionate with time.