TLIAM: No Substitute For Victory

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    Gorrister

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    "In war there is no substitute for victory"
    - General Douglas Macarthur.    ​

    Chapter One: Gridlock
    "When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on." - Franklin D. Roosevelt​
    --
    ​
    Ronald Reagan was no stranger to electoral politics. By the time Nixon flashed the V sign on the helicopter out of the White House, he had already garnered two successful bids for the California governorship and one ill-fated presidential bid in 1968. When he, 57 at the time, stood, he was seen as a charisma machine, but also a reckless acolyte of the radical Barry Goldwater who led the party to a stunning defeat four years prior. He simply didn't have the support beyond the John Birchites of the party to defeat Dick Nixon, who cruised to the nomination after a brief scare on the first ballot. Four years later, when Nixon secured a landslide re-election, carrying 49 states, over the unwashed radical George McGovern of South Dakota, things looked to be smooth sailing from there on out.

    It was not to be.

    Things unravelled in quick succession. First went Agnew on tax evasion. He wasn't missed. Then rose Gerald Ford, who was at the time content in his role as House Minority Leader. Then went Cox, to be followed by Richardson and Ruckelshaus in the 'Saturday Night Massacre' as Ervin, Church, and the rest grilled the president over his involvement with the activities of Hunt and Liddy with regards to the Watergate Complex.

    Then, on the 9th of August 1974, went the president. Gerald Ford rose to the occasion, becoming the 38th president of the United States, declaring an end to the long national nightmare. But, there were still troubles. Swine Flu, Nixon's pardon, and the general economic malaise in part because of the Nixon shock. The American people grew angrier, more cynical, as highlighted in the hit 1976 Sidney Lumet movie Network, in which deranged news anchor Howard Beale (played by the actor Peter Finch) declared to millions "I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore!"

    Seeking to harness this anger all the way to Pennsylvania Avenue was Ronald Reagan. After eight long, tiring years, it was finally chance to become president at the elderly age of 65. Ford was still reeling from the Democratic landslide in the 1974 midterms, making him a prime target. If he fought the president to a draw and forced another nominee, he would've merely been the first to do so since Eugene McCarthy. If he actually won, he would break a precedent of presidential renomination that stretched all the way back to Chester Arthur. But he was confident that he could pull it off, and that he could be a latter day James G. Blaine.

    Reagan launched his second bid for the white house at the National Press Club in Washington D.C. in November 1975, flanked by his wife Nancy and son Ron. A month before, Ford declined to send federal assistance to the city of New York, which was undergoing a severe economic crunch. The backlash was intense, and was famously encapsulated in the headline 'FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD' by the provocative New York Daily News tabloid. It damaged his credibility.

    The first primary was, as per usual, in the farming state of Iowa, on the 19th of January. The result came as a disappointment to the campaign, who were expecting an invigorating victory rather than a slim win from Ford. Only 14 'caucus-goers' separated the president and his challenger. A loss in New Hampshire and Massachusetts soon followed. Many wondered if the campaign was falling into a downward spiral and if it would soon fall into bankruptcy, as indeed it might. Reagan's fortunes changed for the better when North Carolina Governor James Holshouser switched sides, soon to be followed by the conservative powerbroker Jesse Helms, who failed to be convinced even by Ford's own staff of the president's record.

    Florida became a tight battleground, with Reagen edging out the president by a tiny 8,932 vote margin. This was coupled with a smaller than expected loss in the state of Illinois. Reagan then secured a crushing victory in North Carolina with the help of Helms. It was also during this time that Reagan gave a speech entitled 'To Restore America', in which he blasted the administration's ineffective response to rising unemployment and inflation (one of the final lines memorably said "I would like to be president, because I would like to see this country become once again a country where a little six-year old girl can grow up knowing the same freedom that I knew when I was six years old, growing up in America"). Ford's campaign panicked. A string of victories in May worsened the situation, as only West Virginia, Maryland (home of the independent candidate Charles Mathias, whose third party candidacy may have caused a smaller win for Ford), and the president's home state of Michigan wnet against Reagan. In response to his flagging situation, Ford announced the selection of his running mate for the general. The event took place on the 27th of May 1976 in Wichita, and it was blatantly clear that the choice would not be the incumbent vice president Nelson Rockefeller, who had burned one bridge too many for Reagan's supporters. The mystery candidate eventually turned out to be Senator Bob Dole of Kansas. It didn't work out, and the mass-produced Ford/Dole memorabilia went to waste, left to dust in antique shops in years to come as the losses continued without haste. Reagan, on the eve of the convention in Kansas City, Missouri, announced his own pick.

    The team he assembled included Michael Deaver, John Sears, and Lyn Nofziger. Sears pushed for the moderate pro-labor Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania, who could give Reagen some credibility with blue collar voters. The idea was rejected out of hand after Helms personally intervened to prevent it. Also on the shortlist was Tennessee Senator Howard Baker, who was a supporter of Ford in the primaries and therefore someone who could bridge the gap between the two campaigns. Reagan himself wished to put Baker on the ticket, but the senator declined, wishing to take up a leadership post in the senate. Ray Blanton, a Democrat, was the governor of Tennessee at the time, so Reagan would be in effect ceding Baker's seat. Also detailed on the list were Congressman Donald Rumsfeld, who Helms thought was both too inexperienced and too wonky, Senator Paul Laxalt, who was dismissed by Sears for his radical brand of conservatism, Governor John Connally, whose association with Nixon tainted him, and even the president himself.

    The final choice was agreed upon by all members of the campaign team, and was presented to Ford, who consented to the choice. It was to be official. William D. Ruckelshaus, the thick eyebrowed former EPA director and one of the victims of the Saturday Night Massacre, was to become Reagan's vice president if he should win.

    The Kansas City convention turned out more than well. The president gave a gracious speech, reminiscent of his concession some weeks prior, in which he refused to shy away from his fate. "While I am disappointed to become the first president to be denied his party's nomination since the 1800's, I am proud to present a united party. A party that can and has shown sound results for this nation over the past four years!" he cried. Reagan took the stage to an uproarious five minute standing ovation. He, unsurprisingly, failed to mention the criticisms of the administration that he was making previously. Instead, he pressed forth with a positive vision for the country, in sharp contrast to the image of what he called "Carter's America," a land in which the family was under threat, a land in which many could not pay the taxes to keep the roof above their head. It was a ratings bonanza, far outstripping the 1972 one featuring the then-president Richard Nixon. The polls did not reflect this, still showing a ten point deficit for the California governor (with a small portion for Charles 'Mac' Mathias). He would have a little over two months to repair it, and for the moment, Jimmy Carter was the man with his eye on the ball. However, two months was still a long time in the slow world of politics. A time in which anything could happen...

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    • Catsmate

    Catsmate

    Interesting. But you seem to have omitted a bit:
    "A string of victories in May worsened the situation, as only West Virginia, Maryland (home of the independent candidate Charles Mathias, whose third party candidacy may have caused a smaller win for Ford), and the president's home state of Michigan."
    What did those states do? Voted for Ford I assume.
     
    Gorrister

    Gorrister

    catsmate1 said:
    Interesting. But you seem to have omitted a bit:
    "A string of victories in May worsened the situation, as only West Virginia, Maryland (home of the independent candidate Charles Mathias, whose third party candidacy may have caused a smaller win for Ford), and the president's home state of Michigan."
    What did those states do? Voted for Ford I assume.
    Click to expand...
    Oh, of course! Thanks for telling me!
     
    N
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    • Gorrister

    Gorrister

    Chapter 2: A Time for Choosing
    "We cannot defer this responsibility to posterity. Time will not wait." - Walter Cronkite
    ​
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    ​
    Charles Mathias, the Republican senator from Maryland who was nicknamed 'Mac', was hardly close to the ideology Reagan and even Ford trumpeted. He was a Republican of a more moderate stripe, even a liberal one. He rarely voted with his colleagues, compiling a voting record that outmatched most Democrats. He fought for an American withdrawal from the Vietnam quagmire, D.C. Statehood, the contentious Equal Rights Amendment, and the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights act, which he helped draft. However, he did not consider himself a liberal by any stretch of the imagination, once stating (on a bill to prevent wiretapping) “I suppose they’ll say it’s another liberal effort, but it’s as conservative as you can get. It’s conserving the Constitution.”

    This puts into context his presidential run in 1976. He never stood a chance in the post-Goldwater, post-Buckley Republican primaries, where he would assuredly be swamped from the right. It would simply serve no point. So instead, he thought about going a step further, and mounting an independent run for the white house. It would've been unprecedented (at least for the GOP, which hadn't seen a prominent split since 1912), yes, but Mathias wanted to do something to send the Republican party a message that a drift to the right would benefit no one. He privately acknowledged that it was Reagan's own bid that encouraged this. In fact, it was Reagan's important victory in the Florida primary that proved to be the catalyst for Mathias' decision to run 'third-party'. A bid such as this was not without its hurdles, first and foremost ballot access laws, followed by financial backing. Burning bridges with the Republican party in this manner would've also made finding a running mate difficult. But Mathias, after consulting with his team (who were largely holdovers from his senate campaigns), settled on two names. One was the former Attorney General Ramsay Clark of New York. Clark, who had prosecuted draft dodgers during the 60's before taking strident opposition to the war, was considered 'damaged goods' by Mathias, who wanted to run with someone without a tainted record. So he turned to Congressman John Anderson of Illinois. Anderson had his own skeletons, specifically the right-leaning views he held when he was first elected to congress in 1961 (which included a bill to "recognize the law and authority of Jesus Christ" over the United States). But the congressman had repudiated these views heartily and openly advocated policies that, like Mathias, went against the post-Buckley grain of the establishment. Mathias personally met with Anderson to discuss the possibility, and Anderson, recognizing that his position in the party would be diminished either way, consented.

    A glitzy event was thrown on the 2nd of April, 1976. Anderson and Mathias stood side by side, hand in hand. Unfortunately for the two, the media was still covering Reagan, and the announcement only landed on the second page of the New York Times. Still, they would have months upon months to bring people into their fold, months to build themselves up. And there would still be good news, ad the first poll following the announcement pegged them at 8%, only 5% behind what George Wallace had garnered in his stand in 1968.

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    ​

    Meanwhile, in the land of the politically relevant, the Democrats had a smoother nomination period than their right wing counterparts. Unknown Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter came from behind to secure a strong second in Iowa and an even stronger victory in the state of New Hampshire, outpacing better known contenders such as Congressman Mo Udall (whose own sense of humour led him to be later referred to as 'to funny to be president') of Arizona and Senator Henry Jackson of Washington (or Boeing, as his detractors liked to point out). His path to the nomination became easier and easier, even as California Governor Jerry Brown threw his hat into the ring. To keep those who voted for Udall happy, he slotted Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale (after considering John Glenn), a man with a very liberal voting record in the senate, to be his vice presidential nominee. The two were made official at the Democratic convention in Madison Square Garden. It was a successful convention, and resulted in a healthy boost in the polls. A heavy trust in the polls would also prove to be Carter's undoing, as it, along with the conventional wisdom that a Goldwater acolyte like Reagan was unelectable and that Mathias would sap votes away, caused the campaign to slack with regards to GOTV operations and the like.

    The media, too, engaged in this, at least in part. Despite conservative author Richard Whalen's insistence that “[he] was unsullied by Watergate, untainted by Vietnam, and uncorrupted by a Washington system that isn’t working," papers like the Washington Post and the New York Times reported the campaign in a slightly less than serious manner. Reagan's own supporters were committed, yes, but the prevailing attitude was that the 'precious middle' would never come out to vote for someone of his ideological stripe. This was true at first, at least according to polls commissioned by John Sears. The results were conclusive. Many so-called 'swing voters' genuinely considered Reagan too extreme, regardless of his charisma. And so, the month following the convention was dedicated to shifting the tone of the campaign to be more about fixing the wide-ranging problems many middle class Americans found themselves stuck with over the past few years (when it was clear that negative attacks on Carter weren't working out). Sears also sent 'feelers' to states like Wisconsin, where 'white ethnics' were a vital voting bloc and helped George Wallace in his 1972 run. It proved to be successful, and state polling narrowed. Carter's own team tried to do the same, but they weren't listened to.

    The general election campaign was intense. Reagan's own olive branch to the GOP in the form of Ruckelshaus paid off, and they weren't abandoning ship like some predicted. However, he still faced scrutiny from all sides. He had his chance to reverse weeks of negative media coverage with a presidential debate on the 23rd of September. It would be the first debate since 1960's battle between Nixon and Kennedy, and would be accompanied by a VP debate two weeks later, which Ruckelshaus would win. Mathias was denied entry, angering him and his supporters, and in some part Carter, who wished for Reagan and the Maryland senator to quarrel on stage. The debate itself was moderated by Edwin Newman of NBC, and was sponsored by the League of Women Voters.

    It was a quiet affair, which worked to both men's advantage. Reagan was able to utilize the format to speak directly to the American people via the camera, stating "while we have not reached our full potential over the last two to four years, I have the fullest confidence in our nation, but we need to take a positive approach. A Reagan administration would not simply cast an eye towards the state of the economy and throw our hands up in despair, as Governor Carter might. We would see what the necessary course of action would be, and then act upon that. No matter the challenge, whether it be inflation, unemployment, or gas prices, we can overcome." It was a winner, showcasing a positive message in contrast to Carter's slightly gloomier line. Another answer, in response to a question on whether or not the decision to pardon the disgraced Richard Nixon was the right move, went as follows:

    "Look, Ed, I want to be straight with you. All those millions of people across the country, they aren't doing well. They are in poverty, they are in dire straits. They aren't looking for a noble witch hunt to lock up a former president. It's just not necessary. Richard Nixon is a good man, but he made mistakes, as many do. And it was the right course of action for him to hand over power to Gerald Ford. It was. And frankly, I don't believe that in the middle of a crisis, what the country needs is an eternity long trail of our former commander in chief. That is not something we need to go through. Let Richard Nixon apologize, he's not on the ballot this year and he won't be on the ballot in the next year. The debacle is over, the debate must move on."

    Carter's operatives tried to pounce on the 'Nixon is a good man' line, but it wasn't to much effect. Of course, debates don't move votes, but they do effect the media cycle and this one was no different. Now, Reagan was getting ever more positive coverage as Carter's backseat campaigning came under fire. Resources in the south, partly funded by Jesse Helms, were paying off too. The situation was shifting significantly.

    The polling still showed a slim Carter lead, until the 'November surprise' of the governor's interview with Playboy magazine. In it, Carter, who was originally praised for his pious attitude, made this controversial remark: "I’ve looked on a lot of women with lust. I’ve committed adultery in my heart many times. This is something that God recognizes I will do–and I have done it–and God forgives me for it. But that doesn’t mean that I condemn someone who not only looks on a woman with lust but who leaves his wife and shacks up with somebody out of wedlock." This, combined with an interview with Norman Mailer of the NYT in which he said that he was fine with profanity in his company, caused his numbers to dip. The Reagan team used the interviews to great effect in last-day campaigning, getting through to evangelicals who would otherwise have casted their votes for Carter.

    Election night was a close and contentious affair. Reagan's victory in Virginia, followed by another in Texas, was cause for concern in the Carter camp, though the Democratic nominee's wins in South Dakota, Minnesota, Florida, and New Mexico softened the blow a little. Reagan carried Wisconsin and Ohio by close but clear margins, and in the end, the state of Texas and its 26 electoral votes proved to be the one that decided the whole election. A recount, conducted two weeks following the election, had Reagan in the lead by 11,000 votes. And as the former governor took to the stage to announce his victory, it became clear to the news networks that in fact, Carter had pulled ahead in the popular vote, albeit barely (0.2%).

    In post-election analysis, it turned out that it was Mathias who likely cost Carter a victory. The predicted Republican switchover never occurred, with most Republicans voting for Reagan, and a few remnants of McGovern's 'new left' supporting Mathias in opposition to the moderate Carter. This was shown by Mathias' high vote share in states like Massachusetts and New York. McGovern himself was rumoured to have voted for Mathias, a rumour he admitted years later to be true, as he considered him to be far more honorable than either of the main two candidates.

    It was still the dawn of a new day in America. One could even call it 'morning'.
     
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    • kodak

    kodak

    spookyscaryskeletons said:
    In post-election analysis, it turned out that it was Mathias who likely cost Carter a victory. The predicted Republican switchover never occurred, with most Republicans voting for Reagan, and a few remnants of McGovern's 'new left' supporting Mathias in opposition to the moderate Carter. This was shown by Mathias' high vote share in states like Vermont and New York. McGovern himself was rumoured to have voted for Mathias, a rumour he admitted years later to be true, as he considered him to be far more honorable than either of the main two candidates.
    Click to expand...
    I get the Anderson parallels, but Vermont was still a red state in '76, so I don't see how Mathias doing well there would prove Democrats were voting for him.

    Otherwise, I'm looking forward to the next 4 years.
     
    Gorrister

    Gorrister

    kodak said:
    I get the Anderson parallels, but Vermont was still a red state in '76, so I don't see how Mathias doing well there would prove Democrats were voting for him.

    Otherwise, I'm looking forward to the next 4 years.
    Click to expand...
    >x< I'm aware of Vermont's prior Republican dominance, but I suppose I'm used to it being a Democratic state.

    And actually, Mathias is probably even worse for the Democrats than Anderson, who occasionally had some libertarian tendencies.
     
    A
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    • Gorrister

    Gorrister

    Chapter 3: Team of Rivals
    "If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers" - Thomas Pynchon
    ​
    As the Democrats held their heads in embarrassment, having lost the most winnable race in decades to the man who starred in Bedtime for Bonzo, the president-elect set about appointing his cabinet. Heading the transition team was John Sears, with contributions from Nozfinger and newcomer Edwin Meese, who had advised Reagan during his time as Governor of California. The first announcement came after Reagan had met with the outgoing president Ford, and it was for the Department of Health, Education and Welfare, which would be filled by Robert Finch, a former occupant of the position. Finch, fresh off an unsuccessful senate bid, was a close friend of Nixon and despite his liberal tendencies, found himself more than willing to work with the new president, and the Democratic senate was prepared to confirm him. Next came the position of Secretary of State. Reagan and Kissinger weren't personal enemies, but there was a severe conflict of policy ideas that was too great for the german-born Nixon confidant to stay on. Alexander Haig, then the Allied Commander in Europe, was mooted for the role, but Sears dissuaded the president from picking the bombastic general due to his connections to Nixon. Upon the suggestion of Texas Senator John Tower, Reagan decided to ask CIA Director George H.W. Bush about whether he would accept the position. Bush, desperate to move out of the hole that Donald Rumsfeld had put him in by making him CIA Director, accepted the offer. Bush and Reagan had differing views on foreign policy, with Bush's more closely aligning with the Nixon/Kissinger model, but regardless, they had a decent working relationship. The UN Ambassador role would go to former HEW Secretary Caspar Weinberger.

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    The position of Attorney General was hardly a coveted one, and the last one to really wield serious power in the position was Bobby Kennedy. Two options were considered, former Missouri Attorney General John Danforth (who had recently gone down in defeat in a senate contest, losing to Jerry Litton), and former Acting Attorney General Robert Bork, the far more conservative of the two. Sears was hoping to avoid any confirmation fights that could ruin the president's honeymoon, instead giving Bork a metaphorical pat on the head and telling him that he may end up on the supreme court sometime in the future. Danforth was an acceptable compromise, and he would go on to be confirmed near-unanimously. Reagan realized that in the post-Watergate and post-Earl Butz world, he would have to be more careful about who he (or rather Sears) picked for his cabinet, which meant that businessman David Koch was ruled out of becoming Treasury Secretary. The Treasury Department would end up being controlled by former astronaut and businessman Frank Borman.

    Reagan also took the unprecedented step of appointing the 49 year old John Warner, whose only experience was as Navy Secretary, Secretary of Defense. Warner was to replace the outgoing Donald Rumsfeld, who would go off to the private sector, where very few missed him. One of Reagan's more controversial appointments would be that of Businessman Charles Keating to Secretary of Commerce. Keating's shady dealings were notorious, but enough Democrats, including John Glenn, voted him in. The current Commerce Secretary, Elliot Richardson, would be moved to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    Cabinet-level positions were no-brainers on all sides. Sears, who had been dubbed the 'shadow president-elect' by TIME magazine, would become Chief of Staff. Meese would serve in the president's counsel, while Nozfinger advised the vice-president. Angela Buchanan, the sister of former Nixon official Patrick J. Buchanan, would become Press Secretary amid accusations of nepotism. Rounding out cabinet appointments would be that of CIA Director Walter J. Stoessel, who would withdraw his nomination in favour of William J. Casey.

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    The inauguration of Ronald Wilson Reagan took place on the 20th of January 1977. It was a mild morning, and the inauguration ceremony went without trouble. There were no dashes of rain, but there were a few scattered protests near the perimeter. Reagan was administered the oath of office by Chief Justice Warren Burger, while Tip O'Neill would do the same for Vice-President Ruckelshaus. Ford and Rockefeller were in attendance. Reagan's inauguration speech declared that "even when we do not stand at the peak of our power, we still stand tall as the greatest country in the world." It was a highly praised speech, but Democrats remained unconvinced as to Reagan's intentions. "A speech is one thing, let's see what he does" is what O'Neill is alleged to have said in private company following the inauguration, which featured music from rock-and-roll superstar Elvis Presley (who, shortly following the inauguration, would suffer a heart attack and stay in hospital for the forseeable future) and the young Hank Williams Jr., son of another legendary star.
     
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