TLIAD: The Limpid Stream

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Oi! Aren't you supposed to be at work?

Yes, but I have just done a cracking speech about why we need to re-invest in the Royal Navy, so I am giving myself a couple of hours off.

So, what is the deal with this one then?

Well, I wanted to show people that I know about something other than British politics, and I have started my Russian lessons again.

So, you wanted to be original then?

Most certainly, I don't think that there are any timelines dealing with a Soviet-free Russia in the 20th Century.

What about that great vignette that EdT did? You know, the one about 'The Rise of the Robots' in "The World of Fight and Be Right?"

...

Well?

Damnation.

Never mind - are you going to get this done in 24-hours?

I shall do my best.

That's a 'no', isn't it?

Yeah, probably. It is a really good, pretentious title though, isn't it?

Yes.

Yes.​
 
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1917-1919: Alexander Kerensky - (Social Revolutionary)
The man who destroyed one Empire, and created another.

What strangled Bolshevism? Certainly, the assassination of Vladimir Lenin at Finland Station on 15th April 1917 did not help the Communist cause. As he mounted the makeshift podium that had been hastily hammered together from the little available lumber left in Petrograd, he could have been forgiven for allowing himself a small smile. Lenin's personal papers, now available to any keen researcher at the University of Zurich, indicate that he had already planned out an uprising against the Provisional Government in Petrograd, which he felt would have been undone as the war against Germany continued.

How effective his plans would have been is a matter of speculation. A matter of seconds after mounting the steps to the ramshackle lectern, a single shot was fired. As the crowd dispersed, screaming, the herald of Russian Marxism lay dying in the watery spring air.

The reaction from the revolutionary intelligentsia was immediate. Some accused the anarchists for the action, others right-wing elements of the Provisional Government. A select few even whispered rumours that the assassination had been masterminded by Nikolai Bukharin, Lenin’s friend and rival, who assumed leadership of the shell-shocked Bolsheviks in the days following the incident. Despite this, the furious reaction of the revolutionary left-wing was a unifying factor for the anti-war movement, with the Petrograd and Moscow Soviets calling for general strikes on 13th April.

By this time, the true benefactor of the assassination had risen to prominence. Alexander Kerensky, the interim Minister of Justice, assumed the mantel of leadership following the sudden resignation of Prince Lvov. Orthodox history has traditionally viewed Kerensky’s actions as motivated by the lack of attention accorded him owing to the strike action, but more revisionists theses have proposed that the Social Revolutionary leader was driven by a desire to end the war with Germany by any means necessary - a decision that he considered to have been one that was best made whilst the left-wing opposition was still in disarray.

The Declaration of Lomonosov on May 1st, International Labour Day, ended Russian involvement in the Great War, nominally at least. Kerensky had already informed both Paris and London that such an announcement was only interim, intended for the country to recuperate and stave off civil war whilst military and economic reforms were completed. Flanked by the new Minister of Defence, Lavr Kornilov, Kerensky also announced that the Russian army would retreat for the duration of the summer. Whilst humiliating on paper, the vast Austro-German force that would be required to police the newly independent nations of eastern Europe would only increase the pressures on the Western Front. For Jozef Pilsudski, the interim-Prime Minister of the newly and nominally independent Kingdom of Poland, the peace was only an “interim one, merely an intake of breath by the Russian bear, steadying to blow down all before him!” Pilsudski’s words, now immortalised in his diary at the Royal Museum in Warsaw, today seem highly prophetic.

Co-currently, Kerensky also called for the formation of a new “Constitutional Assembly”, with elections being held over a ten day period in the summer of 1917. Despite complaints from some quarters about the rapidity of the decision, as well as the general ill-preparedness of the country to actually hold the elections, the polls went ahead as planned, resulting in a landslide victory for the SRs, who held a narrow majority over the Constitutional Democrats, a loose coalition of “Rightists” (monarchists, anti-Semites, Germanophobes or, in many cases, all three) and the rump Mensheviks. Despite demands from some on the right to recall the monarchy, the overwhelming majority of delegates voted in favour of a “Chairman-President”, or figurehead, to become head of state. Kerensky, fearing that he would be appointed to the position in an effort to curtail his power, immediately proposed Prince Lvov for the role. Despite some grumblings about the Premier’s “Dictatorial Leanings”, Lvov was appointed unopposed.

For the first time in years, Russia had a government that felt minded to focus on domestic matters. Despite the vast swathes of territory under the control of the Central Powers - the majority of industrial capital remained under the control of Petrograd, whilst various nationalist rebel armies harried their new occupiers. Nestor Makhno ravaged the Austro-Hungarians in Ukraine, Ramishvili’s Transcaucasian Army stormed into Anatolia, whilst the army of the Grand Duchy of Livonia remained unwilling to march on Petrograd.

Despite the harsh winter, Kerensky’s ceasefire, coupled with food aid from the United States, kept the cities from starvation, with the Social Revolutionary’s traditional base in the countryside sufficiently placated by the promise of land reform to remain loyal to the capital. On 23rd January, the remaining Bolsheviks in Moscow, led by Dybenko, attempted to take control of the Kremlin, but were unsuccessful. Dybenko’s Cossack background allowed Kerensky to frame the attack as “a vain effort by Ukrainian Nationalist Wreckers”, which only served to increase resentment towards Kiev. As spring approached and the Constitutional Assembly renewed itself in the second Duma, Kerensky made yet another gamble.

The re-entry of Russia into the Great War on 12th May 1918 came as a surprise to many members of the revolutionary clique in Petrograd, most of all Nikolai Bukharin, who suddenly found himself at the head of a large uprising by the members of the United Soviets. This aborted coup d’état by the Bolsheviks failed miserably, not least because of their failure to co-ordinate their actions against the Kerensky government. Holding up in the Peter and Paul fortress, it is not known if the Bolshevik leader was killed by gunfire, one of the many salvos fired from the battleship Potemkin, or from a self-inflicted bullet wound. By nightfall on the 14th, the remaining Bolshevik leadership had either fled the city, been captured or killed. Control of the greatly enfeebled Petrograd Soviet passed to the Mezhraiontsy leader, Leon Trotsky.

For Premier Kerensky, the defeat of the Bolshevik uprising secured his intention to force the war to a fairer settlement after the humiliation of the Declaration of Lomonosov. Under the able leadership of Baron Wrangel, the Republican Army soon shattered the Austro-Hungarian forces propping up the unstable National Republic of Ukraine. In the north, General Brusilov, learning much from his failed offensive of 1916, managed to drive the German troops stationed in the Baltic almost into the sea. These advances on the Eastern front coincided with a fresh Allied assault in the Somme. Despite heavy casualties, especially by the Anglo-Canadian forces, the German line was pushed back substantially for the first time in over three years.

With yet another turnip winter looming for the dispirited citizens of Berlin and with leaders in both Vienna and Constantinople seeing their empires on the verge of total dissolution, Kaiser Wilhelm, displaying a rare act of assertiveness, requested a ceasefire. The failure of the right to seize power forced moderate voices within the Reichstag to reach an armistice agreement. On New Year’s Eve, one was granted, with peace talks opening in Strasbourg in April.

The Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle, signed close to the site of Charlemagne’s Palace, revoked most of the gains made by Germany following the Franco-Prussian War as well the terms of the voided peace with Russia. Polish independence was formally guaranteed, with Zdzislaw Lubomirski installed as King, although real power was placed in the hands of the Prime Minister, Józef Pilsudski. The Ottoman Empire collapsed into civil war soon after, Austria-Hungary only avoiding a similar fate by establishing a tripartite system with the proclamation of the Kingdom of Croatia.

Kerensky watched the victorious “Army of Prussia” return to Petrograd in triumph, taking the salute as they marched down Nevsky Prospekt. The British Ambassador, Sir George Buchanan, reported to his superiors in Whitehall that the momentum was such that Kerensky could have removed Chairman Lvov and merged his position into the Premiership. However, for various reasons, Kerensky chose not to do so. Perhaps, as he admitted years later, he feared that the post-war economic collapse would have made him even more synonymous with the increasingly unpopular government.

Russia was not saved from the post-war economic and social chaos. Although the threat of revolution had rescinded somewhat, the radical left remained a constant threat to Kerensky's government, which soon found itself governing a small and increasingly insignificant coalition of the centre. President Lowden's geo-political horizons, parochial for all that they were Hobbesian, failed to build upon Woodrow Wilson's offer of loans to the shattered Russian economy economy, which Kerensky soon found to be imploding around him. He was swiftly dispatched from power in July, and - following a brief period as Ambassador to Sweden - found himself on the first ship to Harwich with the start of the Autumn Purge of 1923.​
 
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Thande

Donor
Interesting! I always thought a continuing republican Russia (as opposed to a restored Tsarist one) as an alternative to the USSR was an underdone WI.
 
This'll be fun to read, I am interested in what changed with Verseilles, apparently Aix-la-Chapelle ITTL, with Russia demanding its own piece of the pie. The mention of an Autumn Purge suggests that Russia will be coming under a tougher hand than Kerensky and will be less than happy with what he and his successor had been doing up until 1923, a counter-reaction to SR reforms or just a more purge-happy leader?

Can't wait to see more.
 
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I am very much looking forward to this. I have already chuckled myself silly at the thought of Russia 'basically just having a breather' in the middle of WWI. A softer *Versailles looks like the wider world will have a different time of it - I look forward to patented TLIAD-esque '...his conference in China, where everyone had grown wings, was a triumph for Russian diplomacy' asides.

Make sure you get this one done in a day. Wrangel is counting on you.
 
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1919-1946: Pyotr Nikolayevich Wrangel (Independent/National Union)
The military autocrat who industrialised a nation

As Kerensky left the Winter Palace to catcalls and bricks, it appeared that Russia was on the verge of yet another revolution. Trotsky, by now the undisputed leader of the “United Left”, addressed a huge crowd on the steps of the Post Office, whilst Red Guards took up positions at the telegraph office and the railway stations. The British Labour leader, J. R. Clynes, who had been visiting Petrograd on a fact-finding mission, telegrammed Whitehall to warn of the “inevitability of a New Bolshevik take-over.”

However, as a red flag-waving crowd surged towards the Winter Palace - they found their way blocked by a regiment of loyalist Don Cossacks. The tall lambskin hats, topped by a small dome of red leather, immediately indicated the head of the new government.

Despite his Baltic German ancestry, General Pyotr Wrangel never thought of himself as anything other than “an intensely Russian, Russian.” The Irish-born Duke of Wellington would have been proud of such a claim. Wrangel had little time for the “pink, priggish tendencies” that were emerging in Social Democrat controlled Berlin, and once the latest calls for Marxist revolution had come to dominate the capital, the Minister for War had come to the conclusion that only the army could save the embryonic Russian state. At the Cabinet meeting where Kerensky had announced his resignation, none of the other, more likely, candidates had put themselves forward for what many had assumed to be a doomed position. Wrangel’s self-nomination raised only minor disagreements - as he would claim many years later, “power was on the floor, I simply picked it up.” Hours after taking control, Wrangel manouvered his friend and rival, Lavr Kornilov, into the Presidency and declared a state of emergency. Days later, he suspended all meetings of the Duma “until further notice.” As a sop to the Octobrists, he brought Guchkov into the government as Minister for the Treasury - an uneviable position.

As commentators in London and Paris mourned the end of Russia’s brief, unhappy experiment with democracy, Wrangel moved to consolidate his power. His announcement in the newly formed “Spark!” newspaper (the official voice of the Winter Palace) of a commitment to continued land reform, brought an uneasy peace between the right-leaning Social Revolutionaries (or, as they became known during the Wrangel Years, the “Social Renewal Party”), the urban intelligentsia and the urban poor. Despite the innumerable problems he faced, Wrangel managed to tread a fine line during his long, iron-fisted decades in office.

Despite his consolidation of power in White Russia, the new strongman found himself beset by threats, both internal and external.

Abroad, the collapse of the Social Democratic government in Berlin and the attempted putsch by Ludendorff, who claimed inspiration from Wrangel, did little to endear the General to the west. However, the vast, ungovernable territories of the “Eastern European Customs Union” proved to be a constant drain on the finances of Germany, Austria and Poland, opening up the region to Russian influence. When the overthrow of the Hungarian monarchy in May 1921 again raised the spectre of a Communist state at the heart of Central Europe - Wrangel was the first to recognise the nationalist government that had been declared in Pécs. Although King Ferdinand of Romania refused to even countenance allowing Russian troops to cross Romanian territory to assist the rebel forces, the offer was taken as a sign of Wrangel’s commitment to maintaining the peace in Europe. Several months later, Wrangel further entrenched his position when he sent the (very carefully watched) Black Sea Fleet to blockade the Dardanelles when “The Red Turks” overthrew the provisional government in Constantinople. A rapid bombardment of the city, followed by an even more rapid lynching of the ring-leaders by a terrified citizenry, allowed Wrangel to show himself as a bulwark against the far left. The fleet withdrew soon after, following the signing of a hastily drafted Treaty of Peace and Friendship by Ali Kemal Bey’s new administration which granted preferential use of the straits to Russian shipping, as well as a sphere of influence over the Transcaucasian Federal Republic.

Despite misgivings from many commentators, by the end of the year, Austen Chamberlain in London, Hjalmar Schacht in Berlin and Secretary of State Wood in Washington had all formally accepted Wrangel as the leader of the only legitimate government of Russia.

With international acceptance came breathing room. In contrast with many of his contemporaries within the army, Wrangel was in many respects a radical in his approach to reform. Although early attempts at land reform had stalled in the chaos of revolution, the declaration of a “People’s Republic of the Far East” in the winter of 1925 allowed Wrangel the chance to mobilise against an internal enemy, as well as industrialise the country east of the Urals. The long, bloody, ‘War of the Siberian Secession’ would drag on for two years (although guerrilla attacks in the vast region would persist until the late-1930s.) The recapture of Omsk in May 1927 marked the de facto end of the conflict, with the public execution of Baron Ungern-Sternberg (the ‘Bloody Khan’) following soon after.

Although the Japanese-backed puppet state in the Trans-Amur would never quite return to the Russian fold (although it was granted a degree of autonomy from Tokyo after the end of the Great Pacific War in 1944), the end of the last of the civil wars allowed Wrangel to demonstrate his more radical tendencies. His position - previously just “Chair of the Transitional Authority in the Duma” - was formalised by the 1937 Constitution as “Director of the Russian State,” this, coupled with the amalgamation of the right-wing and agrarian parties into a single “National Union Movement”, as well as a ubiquitous propaganda campaign, guaranteed him near-Dictatorial powers by the time of the Japanese invasion of Mongolia and the subsequent outbreak of the second major conflict of the 20th Century.

“Marshal Wrangel is a man with whom we can do business,” Leslie Hore-Belisha said on the 15th June 1941 as he walked into Downing Street as Prime Minister. With the sundering of the Franco-Italian Alliance on the continent, British forces were soon supporting the South China Front as Russian forces began their slow advance in Manchuria. With the capture of Seoul in late-1943, the last of Tokyo’s presence on the Asian mainland was shot.

By 1944, Wrangel was the undisputed master of Eurasia, although his ailing health and death two years later meant that he had little time to enjoy the spoils of conquest. As he watched the triumph from the Kremlin on 15th May (the transfer of the capital from Petrograd to Moscow being the most obvious legacy of the New Russification Movement of the mid-1930s), more than a few of the assembled dignitaries noticed the wan skin and skeletal features of the man who had dominated the European and Asian Theatres for the best part of three decades. “It is an absurdity” noted Vice President Bricker, “that the largest nation on earth is under the leadership of a man who increasingly resembles the thousands that he killed.” Indeed, the rapid industrialisation and population transfers of ‘undesirables’ had come at a tremendous cost to his personal legacy, especially as his successor moved into the Winter Palace and was keen to shore up his own legacy.
 
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Very interesting, most of the Franco-Prussian war gains gone. As that really was Elsaß-Lothringen, most of the other provisions of the treaty of Frankfurt having long gone, one wonders what was left.

Similarly, we have a Poland, I think Germany would have to have a far more grievous defeat to give up the Corridor, but have there been demands on Posen or Ostoberschlesien. Similarly has Austria given up parts of Galicia? I'm not sure that forming a Kingdom of Croatia really sorts out A-H's problems, it wouldn't be welcome in Hungary and that's where the power to cause havoc lies. Similarly, the Czechs and the Slovaks must be getting restless.

So Trotsky has survived but enfeebled and there has been a purge. A Rightist purge I suspect.

Subscribed.
 
And Ninja'ed.

Twenty years of Ungern-Sternberg on the loose in Siberia/Central Asia. Ye Gods, imagine the carnage.

I presume Trotsky was sent to count trees somewhere.

And Leslie Hore-Belisha as PM, perhaps as a Liberal PM?
 

Bolt451

Gone Fishin'
I am very much looking forward to this. I have already chuckled myself silly at the thought of Russia 'basically just having a breather' in the middle of WWI. A softer *Versailles looks like the wider world will have a different time of it - I look forward to patented TLIAD-esque '...his conference in China, where everyone had grown wings, was a triumph for Russian diplomacy' asides.

Make sure you get this one done in a day. Wrangel is counting on you.

I read this on my lunchbreak and that image made my giggle so hard I got a few stares from co workers.

Also, yes :) great stuff so far Roem.
 
Unsurprising that Russian democracy dies, since it was far more fragile than the Weimar one. I hope democracy does return, eventually. And no more strongmen.
 
Lovely stuff. I do enjoy the term 'Director' when it crops up in *fascist regimes. It's perfect for a corporatist world, which is what Uncle Peter is implied to have created.

A short European war against France and Italy? This seems to be what the Yanks, Germans and Brits got themselves into in the 1940s - followed, of course, by the Great Pacific War. It makes sense that the Japanese were done by 1944, though. With no big European distraction, the full might of Russia, China, the UK and America all pouring onto them from Day 1 will have spelled a quick end.

'The Red Turks' is my new favourite combination of words.

Was the Hore-Belisha government a beacon for western liberalism?
 
Interesting indeed- how did Russia not re-annex Vladivostok after what sounds like a substantial Japanese defeat?
 
Unsurprising that Russian democracy dies, since it was far more fragile than the Weimar one. I hope democracy does return, eventually. And no more strongmen.

I saw the Russian Republic under Wrangel as being a rubberstamp democracy, possibly with some genuine local government. I have always found Wrangel to be a fascinating individual (he was by far the most radical of the leading Whites) and he was probably the closest one could get to a reformist autocrat, rather than just a "Alexander II was too liberally-minded" hack.

I read this on my lunchbreak and that image made my giggle so hard I got a few stares from co workers.

Also, yes :) great stuff so far Roem.

A pleasure, as ever!

And Ninja'ed.

Twenty years of Ungern-Sternberg on the loose in Siberia/Central Asia. Ye Gods, imagine the carnage.

I presume Trotsky was sent to count trees somewhere.

And Leslie Hore-Belisha as PM, perhaps as a Liberal PM?

I think that the historians of this period would see it rather analogous to how we consider the Chinese Warlord Era in OTL - very much a hodge-podge of vested interests, micro-states and foreign-backed regimes. At the start, the Whites probably control the lion's share of European Russia, minus Finland, Western Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States (the United Baltic Duchy/Livonia probably survives given the relative lack of OTLs back-and-forth front.) Central Siberia really is not a happy place to be during the twenties.

Trotsky, bless him, flees to Mexico early on.

Hore-Belisha is a National Liberal by this point, leading a Conservative-led coalition government because reasons.

Very interesting, most of the Franco-Prussian war gains gone. As that really was Elsaß-Lothringen, most of the other provisions of the treaty of Frankfurt having long gone, one wonders what was left.

Similarly, we have a Poland, I think Germany would have to have a far more grievous defeat to give up the Corridor, but have there been demands on Posen or Ostoberschlesien. Similarly has Austria given up parts of Galicia? I'm not sure that forming a Kingdom of Croatia really sorts out A-H's problems, it wouldn't be welcome in Hungary and that's where the power to cause havoc lies. Similarly, the Czechs and the Slovaks must be getting restless.

So Trotsky has survived but enfeebled and there has been a purge. A Rightist purge I suspect.

Subscribed.

I may do a map at the very end of this to explain the territorial changes.

I am very much looking forward to this. I have already chuckled myself silly at the thought of Russia 'basically just having a breather' in the middle of WWI. A softer *Versailles looks like the wider world will have a different time of it - I look forward to patented TLIAD-esque '...his conference in China, where everyone had grown wings, was a triumph for Russian diplomacy' asides.

Make sure you get this one done in a day. Wrangel is counting on you.

You are very good at alternate history. I this that this will be see as the "Breather War" by some wags at the time, although I have always felt that Russia's contribution to the war effort is very misunderstood by historians. Most people, if at all, just seem to think "They all die in 1914, they find some more troops down the back of a sofa somewhere, everyone chases everyone else around Eastern Europe for the next few years like a 1910's version of the Benny Hill Show, Revolution" - it is a bit of a shame really.

I am giving myself until noon tomorrow to get this done. There's, ahem, rather a lot left to go...

Interesting! I always thought a continuing republican Russia (as opposed to a restored Tsarist one) as an alternative to the USSR was an underdone WI.

Yeah - and I really don't know why! I think that it is a little like Nazi Germany (I know that we have a few (very good) 'Weimar Survives" timelines) in that the Soviet Union is such a radical, abrupt and total change in world politics and international ideology that it is basically impossible to look at 20th History without it. I suppose that the fact that the Cold War still exists in the popular consciousness doesn't help matters. Hell's teeth, it is hard enough for me to think of how a world without the USSR would look like, and I was about six months old when Yeltsin took power.
 

Thande

Donor
Nice stuff. (EDIT: Ninja'd by Roem's response above if any of the questions are redundant)

The fleet withdrew soon after, following the signing of a hastily drafted Treaty of Peace and Friendship by Ali Kemal Bey’s new administration granted preferential use of the straits to Russian shipping, as well as a sphere of influence over the Transcaucasian Federal Republic.

I'm sure Mr Kemal will be remembered in official Turkish histories as A Classic Legend.

(BTW, was there supposed to be a land war in Europe in the 1930s-40s or not, it was a bit vague with the mention of the Franco-Italian Alliance).

Lovely stuff. I do enjoy the term 'Director' when it crops up in *fascist regimes. It's perfect for a corporatist world, which is what Uncle Peter is implied to have created.
Unfortunately, this provokes an image of the Charlie Chuck character from The Smell of Reeves and Mortimer. "WoofBARK! DON-key!" More evokes the crazier variety of dictator...

Was the Hore-Belisha government a beacon for western liberalism?
Very good. I knew someone would beat me to the joke.
 
Lovely stuff. I do enjoy the term 'Director' when it crops up in *fascist regimes. It's perfect for a corporatist world, which is what Uncle Peter is implied to have created.

A short European war against France and Italy? This seems to be what the Yanks, Germans and Brits got themselves into in the 1940s - followed, of course, by the Great Pacific War. It makes sense that the Japanese were done by 1944, though. With no big European distraction, the full might of Russia, China, the UK and America all pouring onto them from Day 1 will have spelled a quick end.

'The Red Turks' is my new favourite combination of words.

Was the Hore-Belisha government a beacon for western liberalism?

Director really is a lovely term - so banal when it concerns anything other than a country, really menacing when it does!

Typically, I can see yet another revanchist movement that comes to power in France following yet another inconclusive war (I mean, after the meatgrinder of Verdun, you would want something more than Alsace-Lorraine to show for it) which, when coupled with a less Anglo-friendly Italy, could have serious implications for the future of the Med - any Battle of Malta would be really, really nasty here.

The Great Pacific War happens co-currently with the War of the Iron Pact, but they are disconnected, rather like OTL's Sino-Japanese War was until the late-thirties.

I should point out that, by 2008, Ali Kemal Bey's great-grandson is the popular Mayor of Istanbul. (EDIT: Ninja'd by Thande.)

Interesting indeed- how did Russia not re-annex Vladivostok after what sounds like a substantial Japanese defeat?

Japan was very much defeated at Sea and in Southern China (more of that later) - but the war in the north was much more bitter and rather messy. By the end of it, I can see the Republic of Korea, Manchuria and the Trans-Amur Republic coming into existence as buffer states, although I do have plans for Vladivostok further down the line.
 
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Thande

Donor
I should point out that, by 2008, Ali Kemal Bey's great-grandson is the popular Mayor of Istanbul.

Well, obviously.

I assume he has a plan to build an artificial island in the Sea of Marmara to build two duplicates of the Hagia Sofia on so both the Christians and Muslims can have one each.
 

Faeelin

Banned
Fascinating, but I am a bit unsure about *White Russia losing the Far East. Why do the Japanese hold onto it when they let go of it OTL?
 
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