TL-191 FILLING IN THE FUTURE
- Thread starter Tiro
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What does everyone think of a South Africa-like Algeria? I think it might happen in TTL. The French, thrice humiliated by the Germans, might turn to Algeria as a refuge from the boot of Berlin and to make Algeria a new France.
The remaining Royalists and AF types establishing an apartheid government with a French ruling class out of Algiers? I would think that the new government of Metropolitan France would try to dispute that.
They probably would, but the new government in Metropolitan France would be most likely be too focused on repairing the shattered French economy, paying the reparations to Germany, and restructuring the government to put up anything other than words about Algeria. But yeah, the idea was that ex-Action Francaise members, remaining Royalists, French immigrants who harbor a deep hatred for Germany would make up the apartheid government in Algiers.
ZGradt
Banned
Most likely it'll be a nationalist revanchist government claiming its the 'True France,' only for no one barring the odd contrarian country taking it seriously. Plus, the Germans could turn the Pied-Noirs' struggle into a forever war with the local Arabs and Berbers.
I think that this 'France Outremer' version of Algeria has some excellent storytelling potential, so I would vote in favour of it's inclusion in Timeline-191 in any case (although I suspect it would be more Republican than Action-ist, given the utter failure of that pseudo-Bourbon Monarchy).
ZGradt
Banned
Most likely it'll be an authoritarian republic; the Actionists presumably still know how to govern so they'll be co-opted. If they start talking about a French King or emperor again though, they're probably getting a rifle butt to the face.
So, I don't know the exact number of Pied-Noirs that were there in 1945, but OTL population figures estimated a total of 7.8 million. So, there should be at least a million Pied-Noirs living in Algeria TTL. Add the French and Actionists going into exile and that's another 50-100,000 assuming the Germans don't pursue them. I'm also sure that the Pied-Noirs would welcome immigration from Europe, particularly from Spain, the UK, Belgium, and Italy. I'd say by TTL's 1960, the Pied-Noir population would be around 7.5 million Pied-Noirs when taken into account for immigration and births there.
Arabs make up 80% of the non-European population in Algeria, then Berbers at 13%, followed by Turks at 2%, then a lot of other groups too small to account for but when merged make up the remaining 5% of the non-European totals. But I'm guessing the non-European populations went up, too, either by births, immigrants, or refugees due to forced population transfers.
So my guess is that TTL's population in Algeria by 1945 is around 9.3 million, with 1.1 million being of Pied-Noir descent. Which leaves 8.2 million Arabs, Berbers, Turks, and non-Europeans who are most likely of Sunni Muslim faith as opposed to the Pied-Noirs' Catholicism.
Fun times ahoy for Algeria. OTL's Algerian Independence War is going to be a cakewalk compared to TTL's Civil War between the Pied-Noirs and the non-European natives.
Yeah, I completely agree. It'll never be a monarchy, but a very authoritarian republic. The Actionists have a lot of experience in governing, and they'll be definitely co-opted by the Pieds-Noirs already living in Algeria.
Yeah, in OTL from the middle of the 19th century to 1962, the Pieds-Noirs population were usually around 10%. In 1945, they made up almost one million, and OTL 1959 they made up 10.4% (1,025,000). I assumed maybe 100-250,000 French and Actionist refugees fleeing for Algeria, maximum (and it may be ABS) 500,000 French/Actionists heading for Algeria. They'll definitely try and make a "European" Algeria, and keep the immigrants coming.
Immigration after independence is going to predominately come from Spain, Portugal, Italy, and maybe Belgium. Britain may have some immigrants head for Algeria, but I don't see much of that. But the main boost for the Pieds-Noirs population in Algeria is going to be from Tunisia and Morocco. The Pieds-Noirs in Tunisia and Morocco will flee for Algeria, if only because the post-war settlement won't be conducive or them (France is too economically depressed to absorb them, Tunisia ends up in Italy's hands, Morocco is given majority rule, etc). So that's almost one million pieds-noirs immigrants to Algeria (255,000 pieds-noirs in Tunisia in 1956, and a half-million in Morocco).
I also wouldn't be surprised if French colonists in the rest of the French colonial empire, if they're too revanchist and nationalist, end up in Algeria too. So that's a few thousand more.
I'm not sure if the Algiers government would create bantustans. If they do, it would most likely be with the Berbers, Bedouins, and Tuareg.
One thing to keep in mind is that the Indian peace movement had quite a bit of violence swirling around Gandhi.
I also don't think liberalisation of relations is something the extremist Canadians would want, 'no surrender' would be their watchword (if phrases can be watch words) and so, much like that Mormon that was never found in the 30s, if reconciliation goes to far, expect the die hards to force America's hand and spark a massacre in order to keep the flames lit.
ZGradt
Banned
This. Off-topic, but also of note in regards to Gandhi was that he wasn't 100% opposed to armed resistance. And this being TL-191, nonviolent resistance may only go so far before one of the nonviolent movements gets disgruntled and begins using armed violence. Once that happens, the US will deem the nonviolent resistance as no better as the armed ones and attempt to break them with mass arrests and massacres.
A good-sized box that showcases tales told by actors transmuted into light as their performances are recorded, then broadcast by a signal sent out across the aether by the Magic of Technology.
In all honesty I suspect that Television would deal with much the same sort of Stories so popular in the course of Our Timeline, albeit with a very different History shaping some of the storylines in those Period Dramas people love so much (smart money says that Georgian, rather than Victorian or Edwardian would be the preferred Period).
On a distantly-related note, for some reason I have always assumed that the local version of GONE WITH THE WIND known to Timeline-191 would have been set during the War of 1812 and featured The Burning of Washington as a major set-piece.
In all honesty I suspect that Television would deal with much the same sort of Stories so popular in the course of Our Timeline, albeit with a very different History shaping some of the storylines in those Period Dramas people love so much (smart money says that Georgian, rather than Victorian or Edwardian would be the preferred Period).
On a distantly-related note, for some reason I have always assumed that the local version of GONE WITH THE WIND known to Timeline-191 would have been set during the War of 1812 and featured The Burning of Washington as a major set-piece.
I had the CIA arising the same time as Pearson was doing his non-violent resistance. Basically, saying that non-violence only goes so far for Canadian independence, and that force might be something that the American understands.
Actually, does international law exist in TL-191? Like the Hague Conventions or Geneva Conventions?
A good-sized box that showcases tales told by actors transmuted into light as their performances are recorded, then broadcast by a signal sent out across the aether by the Magic of Technology.
In all honesty I suspect that Television would deal with much the same sort of Stories so popular in the course of Our Timeline, albeit with a very different History shaping some of the storylines in those Period Dramas people love so much (smart money says that Georgian, rather than Victorian or Edwardian would be the preferred Period).
On a distantly-related note, for some reason I have always assumed that the local version of GONE WITH THE WIND known to Timeline-191 would have been set during the War of 1812 and featured The Burning of Washington as a major set-piece.
I could actually see Gone with the Wind set in the War of 1812. It might be a while before it was made (70s-80s at the earliest). But yeah, I think that TV would be the same kind of things (I'd love to see what How the States Got Their Shapes developed in TL-191)
I don't see any reason why those conventions wouldn't exist. The European context is the same. I definitively seem to recall references to them in the books - the First World War was basically the same as OTL except that there was no neutral great power to discourage unrestricted submarine warfare.
It is post-war that things would be different, but I would think the USA would have been interested in such things at least. Did Sinclair OTL publish his views on the topic?
Hmm. I might be able to use that in my Canadian resistance posts (which I hope to have up in the thread in the next few weeks. Just been going through a rough patch recently). I'm more looking at the Hague Convention first, if only because it's the senior of international law.
Hague and First-Second Geneva may exist perfectly as not major butterflies that front but a lot of laws were violated, as gas is perfectly legal weapon both sides both great wars and people use and abused military aviation. But the rest, about dealing PoW and proper conduct will exist, except when SGW send all that to be suspened and heavily penalty in the losers.
Where do you get the impression that gas was perfectly legal? It seems to have the same status in WWI that it had in OTL. Though it was used in WWII that didn't mean it was not violating conventions and treaties - any more than in the previous war - but there were tactical gains to be made after all.
I am curious about the use of gas upon civilians however, was it ever used in strategic bombing (in North America - I am quite certain that Harris would have used it on Germany).
That strikes me as a problem too - I suppose you could say always hand wave a Supreme Court ruling - but I just don't know if that could happen so early on. I think it would be better to have the separatists work through the Republicans as the Party of Lincoln tries a Northern and Southern Strategy - selling its soul to win power.
Aye they had a problem with the Freedom Party but continued allowing them to exist right up to 1940 even when their States were under martial law and open revolt. My thought on a CNP would be similar how the Bloc or SNP work today; after seeing what happened with thr Freedom Party they will create a legitimate political platform and simply be advocates for the Canadians States similar to how the Bloc works, while CNP State Parties and their Governors work to make the Canadians as independent as they can without actually breaking any laws, like the Governor in Utah before the Second Mormon Rebellion