Timeline-191: The New Order

[Inferno Agent]

Okay, so if I'm doing this wrong, please, please correct me, haha.

But yeah, last night I realised I was coming up with too many post-SGW 191 ideas to relegate to just Pop Culture or Photos posts, plus it had been a dream of mine to create my own postwar timeline for the Southern Victory series. One that would be inspired partly by, though different from the well-known, well-regarded one from our own David bar Elias. Of course, I'm not as awesome as him lol, and this is very much a work in progress; my initial post here is just a dump of random ideas I jotted down in OneNote earlier today, haha. That said, I'm super open to suggestions, criticisms, questions to stimulate my imagination, etc...here's the initial dump, and I'm hoping with you guys' help it can develop into a proper timeline.

Disclaimer: I'm focusing mainly on what's fun and/or interesting with this proto-timeline, as opposed to full-on plausibility. I'm not and probably can't be a hard scifi writer, I'm too big of a Star Wars fan lmao. But yeah, I very much kinda ran with the parallelism seen in the TL-191 series and aimed for a similar tone, with other ideas mainly coming about as a result of "Wouldn't it be cool, if...?".

And no, these initial musings are not in any real order, I just wrote them down as I came up with them.

---

• US and Germany grow closer in a "special relationship" inspired by US and UK in OTL
• Austria-Hungary begins a controlled dissolution after SGW, with Austria allowing itself to be absorbed by Germany while Hungary and the other territories become separate countries, still allied with the Central Powers.
• Central Powers deploy overseas to aid the US in occupying the South and pacification of the former CSA.
• Churchill-Mosley govt collapses in UK following superbombings, new Parliament is staunchly anti-war and renounces its own nuclear arsenal. UK's cultural evolution postwar is inspired by Japan in OTL, creating monster movies that rail against the horrors of the superbomb while developing elaborate 2D animation that parallels anime. Families of OTL Beatles move to Germany to escape UK economic depression, band is formed later on as Die Kaefer and heralds a "German invasion" of popular culture and music in the US.
• A rift gradually forms between the Ottoman Empire and the rest of the Central Powers; they refuse to institute democratic reforms like those of Germany and Austria-Hungary, and they chafe under intense diplomatic pressure in peacetime to acknowledge and apologise for the Armenian Genocide, as well as to cease mistreatment of their Christian and Jewish populations. They formally withdraw from the Central Powers in the late 50s, joining a "New Entente" helmed by the ascendant Imperial Japan and a weakened, kowtowed Russia.
• In the 1960s, a series of popular uprisings across Japan's imperial territories begins, from Manchuria to the Philippines, Joseon, Formosa, and beyond. These resistance movements are militarily supported by the Central Powers, and Japan enters a sustained military quagmire trying to quell the uprisings. Russia and the Ottomans in turn aid Japan, but it's not enough and eventually Manchukuo falls. Besieged on all sides by more uprisings and a growing reformist movement in Japan itself, the Emperor orders a superbombing of Beijing, intending to send a message to the other revolting territories. The Central Powers, in turn, formally enter the conflict on the side of the revolution and retaliate with their own sunbombs (the American "Big Boy" and German "Der Bestrafer") dropped on Tokyo and Kyoto respectively. What would later be known as the "Three-Day War" abruptly ends as Japan's imperial leadership collapses and the uprisings across the other territories experience victory on the battlefield. Japan surrenders, falling into chaos and infighting between the democratic Reformist movement, the Japanese Red Army, and other warring factions. Russia and the Ottoman Empire agreed to stand down in exchange for a status quo ante bellum arrangement. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea, and many other nations are born after the collapse of Japanese rule.
• The Ottoman Empire maintains its new ties to the Russian Empire, even as both begin to sag under similar uprisings to Japan's. The "New Entente" is effectively dead in the water.
• Christian and Jewish insurgent movements within the weakened Ottoman Empire receive tacit military support from the US and Germany.
• The US and Germany are founders of both the League of Nations (which does not rebrand as the UN as in OTL and survives into the modern era) and NATO.
• The former CSA is fully absorbed into the USA, which now rules most of the continent from Canada down to Sonora/Chihuahua, but remains under military occupation for years, with the Republic of Texas acting as an intermediary between the US regime and the assorted conquered Southerners.
• The New Entente attempts to aid Canadian and Mormon rebels in North America but are forced to withdraw in order to tamp down rebellions in their own territory.
• France is allowed to reform as a new Republic under close German supervision, though with Alsace-Lorraine now under permanent German control. Its capital is established in Vichy (due to the destruction of Paris in the war), and its role in international politics is minimal as the new France functions mainly as a German satellite.
• By 1989, the unified German Empire becomes a constitutional monarchy. Its chief European allies are the independent Kingdom of Hungary, its loyal client state of France, Ireland, and Italy, while chilly yet positive relations are maintained with the now-neutral UK.

Order of things as of 1960
• Central Powers/NATO: USA, Greater Germany (includes Austria), Quebec, Ireland, Hungary, Italy, Brazil, France (German satellite), former CSA (as part of USA), Canada (as part of USA), Cuba
• New Entente: Japan, Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, Mexican Empire
• Neutral: UK, Australia, India, New Zealand, Texas Republic
• Unrecognised: Indochina, Joseon, Formosa, Philippine Socialist Republic, Republic of China, State of Israel, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, CSA holdouts, Nation of Deseret, Canadian Liberation Front

[edits are forthcoming]

 

[DUKAKIS/GLENN 88]

Very interesting, seems like a fun TL.

 

[Inferno Agent]

Thanks! I want nothing more than to share the fun I've had making this with you guys, haha.

More random tidbits:

• Belgium remains under German occupation till the 50s, after which-- as part of a greater series of reforms-- it's allowed to become an "independent" republic that rapidly settles into the role of a German satellite state much like France.
• Many advanced German aircraft designs that never left the drawing board in OTL are actually built by Imperial Germany and the US (thanks, luft46.com!)
• Israel's formation is entirely different than in OTL; it's just one of several unrecognised breakaway states from the Ottoman Empire, formed mainly by the Jewish population of the Empire in approximately the same geographic spot as in our world. Others include but are not limited to: Armenia, Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran, and Iraq.
• Black culture is able to flourish in the postwar US, achieving a level of mainstreamness that it never could have under the Confederate yoke.
• The Second Amendment is never repealed or anything, but it's held in less high of a regard than in OTL, mainly because the idea of "being armed in case of government tyranny" is seen as more of a "Confederate" idea, as well as the US's gradual absorption of European-style cultural and political beliefs.
• The British Empire basically stops existing after the SGW; much like how Germany was forced to surrender its colonial holdings after our WWI, the Central Powers mandate that the UK give up India, Australia, New Zealand, and others, who all become independent republics and largely decide to stay the hell away from their former host and its many wars. This contributes heavily to the UK's overall cultural "humbling" post-war.
• At some point, the Scottish begin to seek their own independence from the UK-- still working out how that's gonna go down.

 

[Lalli]

Looks very intresting. Some comments on yours ideas:

• US and Germany grow closer in a "special relationship" inspired by US and UK in OTL

This is indeed pretty likely. Altough without OTL Cold War they would are intrested to do their own things and not such deeply allied.

• Austria-Hungary begins a controlled dissolution after SGW, with Austria allowing itself to be absorbed by Germany while Hungary and the other territories become separate countries, still allied with the Central Powers.

Not actually really sure about dissolution of A-H. It has survived through two Great Wars so I would imaginate that surviving and actually reforming more proper federation between ethnic groups. But if you want cause some mess to A-H perhaps Bosnia becomes OTL Northern Ireland but just with Serb and Croat terrorists and the federal army trying to keep situation under control. And finally in 1990's there is some deal similar with OTL Good Friday Agreement.

• Central Powers deploy overseas to aid the US in occupying the South and pacification of the former CSA.

I think that USA might be about only occupier since Germany would has too much doing with its new colonial empire. CSA anyway would remain really long time very restless region since it has been independent over 80 years and Confederates just not accept being re-absorbed to USA. CSA actually might even re-gain its independence in 1970's or 1980's when USA would notice that it can't hold the place but of course much smaller andnot that independent. But it is yours decision.

• Churchill-Mosley govt collapses in UK following superbombings, new Parliament is staunchly anti-war and renounces its own nuclear arsenal. UK's cultural evolution postwar is inspired by Japan in OTL, creating monster movies that rail against the horrors of the superbomb while developing elaborate 2D animation that parallels anime. Families of OTL Beatles move to Germany to escape UK economic depression, band is formed later on as Die Kaefer and heralds a "German invasion" of popular culture and music in the US.

Sounds intresting idea. Do you think that from Britain could come some video game giants like OTL Nintendo and Sony?

• A rift gradually forms between the Ottoman Empire and the rest of the Central Powers; they refuse to institute democratic reforms like those of Germany and Austria-Hungary, and they chafe under intense diplomatic pressure in peacetime to acknowledge and apologise for the Armenian Genocide, as well as to cease mistreatment of their Christian and Jewish populations. They formally withdraw from the Central Powers in the late 50s, joining a "New Entente" helmed by the ascendant Imperial Japan and a weakened, kowtowed Russia.

Ottomans have something what CPs want, oil. So they probably would have ready to ignore human rights problems like in OTL pretty much everyone are ignoring human rights conditions of Saudi Arabia and Gulf Emirates. And I think that you should include Arabs and Kurds too.

• In the 1960s, a series of popular uprisings across Japan's imperial territories begins, from Manchuria to the Philippines, Joseon, Formosa, and beyond. These resistance movements are militarily supported by the Central Powers, and Japan enters a sustained military quagmire trying to quell the uprisings. Russia and the Ottomans in turn aid Japan, but it's not enough and eventually Manchukuo falls. Besieged on all sides by more uprisings and a growing reformist movement in Japan itself, the Emperor orders a superbombing of Beijing, intending to send a message to the other revolting territories. The Central Powers, in turn, formally enter the conflict on the side of the revolution and retaliate with their own sunbombs (the American "Big Boy" and German "Der Bestrafer") dropped on Tokyo and Kyoto respectively. What would later be known as the "Three-Day War" abruptly ends as Japan's imperial leadership collapses and the uprisings across the other territories experience victory on the battlefield. Japan surrenders, falling into chaos and infighting between the democratic Reformist movement, the Japanese Red Army, and other warring factions. Russia and the Ottoman Empire agreed to stand down in exchange for a status quo ante bellum arrangement. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea, and many other nations are born after the collapse of Japanese rule.

Sounds intresting.

• The US and Germany are founders of both the League of Nations (which does not rebrand as the UN as in OTL and survives into the modern era) and NATO.

Very plausible.

• The New Entente attempts to aid Canadian and Mormon rebels in North America but are forced to withdraw in order to tamp down rebellions in their own territory.

Possible. Altough Canadians revolting probably would be stopped pretty soon. And I would imaginate Mormons eventually moderating and perhaps even being rehabilitated altough now living in Sandwich Islands. Anyway, will USA take Alaska in yours scenario?

• France is allowed to reform as a new Republic under close German supervision, though with Alsace-Lorraine now under permanent German control. Its capital is established in Vichy (due to the destruction of Paris in the war), and its role in international
politics is minimal as the new France functions mainly as a German satellite.

About similar I would imaginate France. Altough eventually capital probably would be returned to Paris or some another important French city.

• By 1989, the unified German Empire becomes a constitutional monarchy. Its chief European allies are the independent Kingdom of Hungary, its loyal client state of France, Ireland, and Italy, while chilly yet positive relations are maintained with the now-neutral UK.

Germany was already constitutional monarchy since its foundation of 1871 unless you mean kaiser becoming politically completely powerless.

Order of things as of 1960
• Central Powers/NATO: USA, Greater Germany (includes Austria), Quebec, Ireland, Hungary, Italy, Brazil, France (German satellite), former CSA (as part of USA), Canada (as part of USA), Cuba

Yes. And include too several Eastern European nations.

• New Entente: Japan, Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, Mexican Empire

I would imaginate Mexico being under US influence. And there might be good to be some other nations to get some balance with this alternate "Cold War". Now CPs are pretty much overpowerful.

• Neutral: UK, Australia, India, New Zealand, Texas Republic

Possible altough I would imaginate Texas being ally puppet of USA.

• Unrecognised: Indochina, Joseon, Formosa, Philippine Socialist Republic, Republic of China, State of Israel, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, CSA holdouts, Nation of Deseret, Canadian Liberation Front

Yes. And yet perhaps some Arab and Kurdish organisations. And there might be too Chechen guerillas in Russia. You could too have some neo-Bolsheviks.

Thanks! I want nothing more than to share the fun I've had making this with you guys, haha.

More random tidbits:

• Belgium remains under German occupation till the 50s, after which-- as part of a greater series of reforms-- it's allowed to become an "independent" republic that rapidly settles into the role of a German satellite state much like France.

Why Belgium wouldn't stay as monarchy?

• Many advanced German aircraft designs that never left the drawing board in OTL are actually built by Imperial Germany and the US (thanks, luft46.com!)

Intresting.

• Israel's formation is entirely different than in OTL; it's just one of several unrecognised breakaway states from the Ottoman Empire, formed mainly by the Jewish population of the Empire in approximately the same geographic spot as in our world. Others include but are not limited to: Armenia, Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran, and Iraq.

Intresting again.

• Black culture is able to flourish in the postwar US, achieving a level of mainstreamness that it never could have under the Confederate yoke.

Very possible. And since horrors of the Reduction there would be complete backlash against racism. So USA wouldn't see such level of racism what there is in OTL. And if South Africa still adopts Apartheid policy, USA mgiht take really harsh stance with that.

• The Second Amendment is never repealed or anything, but it's held in less high of a regard than in OTL, mainly because the idea of "being armed in case of government tyranny" is seen as more of a "Confederate" idea, as well as the US's gradual absorption of European-style cultural and political beliefs.

Possible.

• The British Empire basically stops existing after the SGW; much like how Germany was forced to surrender its colonial holdings after our WWI, the Central Powers mandate that the UK give up India, Australia, New Zealand, and others, who all become independent republics and largely decide to stay the hell away from their former host and its many wars. This contributes heavily to the UK's overall cultural "humbling" post-war.

Plausible.

• At some point, the Scottish begin to seek their own independence from the UK-- still working out how that's gonna go down.

Possible. But I don't have idea how it could happen.

 

[Inferno Agent]

Looks very intresting. Some comments on yours ideas:



This is indeed pretty likely. Altough without OTL Cold War they would are intrested to do their own things and not such deeply allied.



Not actually really sure about dissolution of A-H. It has survived through two Great Wars so I would imaginate that surviving and actually reforming more proper federation between ethnic groups. But if you want cause some mess to A-H perhaps Bosnia becomes OTL Northern Ireland but just with Serb and Croat terrorists and the federal army trying to keep situation under control. And finally in 1990's there is some deal similar with OTL Good Friday Agreement.



I think that USA might be about only occupier since Germany would has too much doing with its new colonial empire. CSA anyway would remain really long time very restless region since it has been independent over 80 years and Confederates just not accept being re-absorbed to USA. CSA actually might even re-gain its independence in 1970's or 1980's when USA would notice that it can't hold the place but of course much smaller andnot that independent. But it is yours decision.



Sounds intresting idea. Do you think that from Britain could come some video game giants like OTL Nintendo and Sony?



Ottomans have something what CPs want, oil. So they probably would have ready to ignore human rights problems like in OTL pretty much everyone are ignoring human rights conditions of Saudi Arabia and Gulf Emirates. And I think that you should include Arabs and Kurds too.



Sounds intresting.



Very plausible.



Possible. Altough Canadians revolting probably would be stopped pretty soon. And I would imaginate Mormons eventually moderating and perhaps even being rehabilitated altough now living in Sandwich Islands. Anyway, will USA take Alaska in yours scenario?



About similar I would imaginate France. Altough eventually capital probably would be returned to Paris or some another important French city.



Germany was already constitutional monarchy since its foundation of 1871 unless you mean kaiser becoming politically completely powerless.



Yes. And include too several Eastern European nations.



I would imaginate Mexico being under US influence. And there might be good to be some other nations to get some balance with this alternate "Cold War". Now CPs are pretty much overpowerful.



Possible altough I would imaginate Texas being ally puppet of USA.



Yes. And yet perhaps some Arab and Kurdish organisations. And there might be too Chechen guerillas in Russia. You could too have some neo-Bolsheviks.



Why Belgium wouldn't stay as monarchy?



Intresting.



Intresting again.



Very possible. And since horrors of the Reduction there would be complete backlash against racism. So USA wouldn't see such level of racism what there is in OTL. And if South Africa still adopts Apartheid policy, USA mgiht take really harsh stance with that.



Possible.



Plausible.



Possible. But I don't have idea how it could happen.

YES, sweet, sweet feedback! Thank you, my friend, I posted this partly because of your encouragement, haha. Allow me to address each point...

• I'm not married to the dissolution of A-H idea, honestly; I didn't remember much about them from having read the books like 15 years ago and deferred to the wiki, which seemed to indicate that A-H was a tenuous alliance at best. But again, not really a must for my idea, I can work with them staying together or at least devolving power to individual member nations over time, in keeping with the theme of the Central Powers becoming gradually more democratic.
• I don't see the CSA reforming at any point (and it would be rather sad to see, lol), but as for the other CP coming to occupy it, I mainly just liked the image of them humbled by this sudden influx of foreign occupiers, as well as more opportunities for the US and their European allies to interact.
• Yeah, they could! Perhaps British companies like Sinclair and Amstrad take their place.
• I very much want to include the Arabs, Kurds, and Persians as well, I'm just trying to think of how they'd fit into things. And hmm, good point on oil, though the Ottoman heel-turn is still pretty central to the storyline...I will work on this, see if I can think of something.
• I don't see the Canadian and Mormon resistances just going away, though they would definitely be weakened. I still like the idea of Japan trying to undermine the US by aiding them in some capacity.
• Vichy as the capital is just an allohistorical reference, and it would return to Paris eventually once it's rebuilt and less radioactive.
• That's what I mean, yes, the Kaiser just giving up his authority and ruling as a figurehead.
• Working on adding more Eastern European nations. I've got plans for Poland, Czechia, and Ukraine for sure.
• As is, this TL has Mexico basically getting let off the hook after the SGW because they were largely ineffectual and didn't cause the US much grief. So they're basically allowed to continue doing their own thing so long as they have no contact with the South.
• Yeah, CP is definitely overpowered, the Ottoman heel-turn was partly to counteract that and take some power away, and I'm thinking of adding a large Communist power after Japan's collapse to keep the "Cold War" going.
• Texas is very much a US puppet here, though they have a kind of minor sympathy for the South and try their best to act as a negotiator on their behalf.
• Neo-Bolsheviks are a big part of my plans, I'm just figuring out how they'll fit into things. Chechen guerillas make a lot of sense too, especially against the nominally Christian Tsarist regime.
• Belgium does stay a monarchy, that literally just slipped my mind lol.
• Indeed, much-reduced racism in the US with blacks as an almost protected class, though with some reactionary nastiness from those who call it "overcompensating". And still figuring out South Africa, if they do indeed that could set them on a collision course militarily with the US. And maybe even the apartheid regime could be part of the new bad guy faction/a Cold War enemy, hmm...
• The idea with Scotland is that they see their fellow Celts in Ireland have completely decoupled themselves from the British with US support, and are like, "Hey, we want some of that too!". Plus they see an opportunity with the government of the UK being largely weak and neutered post-war.

Thanks so much for the feedback! I've got a lot to think about, heh, and that means this TL will develop more and more, yay!

 

[bguy]

• US and Germany grow closer in a "special relationship" inspired by US and UK in OTL
• Austria-Hungary begins a controlled dissolution after SGW, with Austria allowing itself to be absorbed by Germany while Hungary and the other territories become separate countries, still allied with the Central Powers.

Both of these seem plausible.

• Central Powers deploy overseas to aid the US in occupying the South and pacification of the former CSA.

I can't really see this. Germany has more than enough on its plate already with having to hold down France and Eastern Europe plus whatever it scoops up in Africa. The last thing it would need is to take on yet another troop commitment.

• Churchill-Mosley govt collapses in UK following superbombings, new Parliament is staunchly anti-war and renounces its own nuclear arsenal. UK's cultural evolution postwar is inspired by Japan in OTL, creating monster movies that rail against the horrors of the superbomb while developing elaborate 2D animation that parallels anime. Families of OTL Beatles move to Germany to escape UK economic depression, band is formed later on as Die Kaefer and heralds a "German invasion" of popular culture and music in the US.

Do you see the Central Powers occupying the UK (akin to how the US occupied Japan IOTL) or is it allowed to maintain its independence?

• A rift gradually forms between the Ottoman Empire and the rest of the Central Powers; they refuse to institute democratic reforms like those of Germany and Austria-Hungary, and they chafe under intense diplomatic pressure in peacetime to acknowledge and apologise for the Armenian Genocide, as well as to cease mistreatment of their Christian and Jewish populations. They formally withdraw from the Central Powers in the late 50s, joining a "New Entente" helmed by the ascendant Imperial Japan and a weakened, kowtowed Russia.

Agree with Lalli here. Germany in particular is probably really dependent on Ottoman oil supplies which will limit how much they can pressure the Ottomans.

Also would Russia ally with Japan? Japan wouldn't be of much use to Russia in a war with Germany, so Russia doesn't really gain much from the alliance, and if the Russians have any future expansionistic goals then expanding into China is probably their best option. (Which would put them at odds with Japan.)

• In the 1960s, a series of popular uprisings across Japan's imperial territories begins, from Manchuria to the Philippines, Joseon, Formosa, and beyond. These resistance movements are militarily supported by the Central Powers, and Japan enters a sustained military quagmire trying to quell the uprisings. Russia and the Ottomans in turn aid Japan, but it's not enough and eventually Manchukuo falls. Besieged on all sides by more uprisings and a growing reformist movement in Japan itself, the Emperor orders a superbombing of Beijing, intending to send a message to the other revolting territories. The Central Powers, in turn, formally enter the conflict on the side of the revolution and retaliate with their own sunbombs (the American "Big Boy" and German "Der Bestrafer") dropped on Tokyo and Kyoto respectively. What would later be known as the "Three-Day War" abruptly ends as Japan's imperial leadership collapses and the uprisings across the other territories experience victory on the battlefield. Japan surrenders, falling into chaos and infighting between the democratic Reformist movement, the Japanese Red Army, and other warring factions. Russia and the Ottoman Empire agreed to stand down in exchange for a status quo ante bellum arrangement. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea, and many other nations are born after the collapse of Japanese rule.
Click to expand...

Seems plausible except I think Russia would be far more likely to be one of the powers jumping on Japan rather than allying with it. I also suspect it would take more than two nuclear strikes to cause Japan to surrender, and that Japan would probably get in some nuclear strikes on the Americans in the conflict as well.

• The Ottoman Empire maintains its new ties to the Russian Empire, even as both begin to sag under similar uprisings to Japan's. The "New Entente" is effectively dead in the water.

I suppose it's possible, though just based on Russian historical behavior a resurgent Russia is probably more likely to see the Ottomans as a target than as an ally.

• Christian and Jewish insurgent movements within the weakened Ottoman Empire receive tacit military support from the US and Germany.

Would Germany really risk their oil supply to help religious minorities?

• The US and Germany are founders of both the League of Nations (which does not rebrand as the UN as in OTL and survives into the modern era) and NATO.
• The former CSA is fully absorbed into the USA, which now rules most of the continent from Canada down to Sonora/Chihuahua, but remains under military occupation for years, with the Republic of Texas acting as an intermediary between the US regime and the assorted conquered Southerners.

These seem plausible.

• The New Entente attempts to aid Canadian and Mormon rebels in North America but are forced to withdraw in order to tamp down rebellions in their own territory.

Practically it will also be very hard for them to provide any meaningful supplies to the rebels since they don't share a land border with any of the rebellious territory.

• France is allowed to reform as a new Republic under close German supervision, though with Alsace-Lorraine now under permanent German control. Its capital is established in Vichy (due to the destruction of Paris in the war), and its role in international politics is minimal as the new France functions mainly as a German satellite.
• By 1989, the unified German Empire becomes a constitutional monarchy. Its chief European allies are the independent Kingdom of Hungary, its loyal client state of France, Ireland, and Italy, while chilly yet positive relations are maintained with the now-neutral UK.

Seems plausible. What about the puppet states Germany established in Eastern Europe? (Poland, Ukraine, maybe Finland and Belarus after the Second Great War.)

Order of things as of 1960
• Central Powers/NATO: USA, Greater Germany (includes Austria), Quebec, Ireland, Hungary, Italy, Brazil, France (German satellite), former CSA (as part of USA), Canada (as part of USA), Cuba
• New Entente: Japan, Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, Mexican Empire
• Neutral: UK, Australia, India, New Zealand, Texas Republic
• Unrecognised: Indochina, Joseon, Formosa, Philippine Socialist Republic, Republic of China, State of Israel, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, CSA holdouts, Nation of Deseret, Canadian Liberation Front

Can't see the TL-191 US allowing Texas to be neutral or the Mexican Empire to be in a hostile alliance.

What do you see happening in Africa? I could see large numbers of Confederate diehards trying to settle in South Africa and Rhodesia (especially Rhodesia) which could make things really nasty there

 

[Whiteshore]

• Churchill-Mosley govt collapses in UK following superbombings, new Parliament is staunchly anti-war and renounces its own nuclear arsenal. UK's cultural evolution postwar is inspired by Japan in OTL, creating monster movies that rail against the horrors of the superbomb while developing elaborate 2D animation that parallels anime. Families of OTL Beatles move to Germany to escape UK economic depression, band is formed later on as Die Kaefer and heralds a "German invasion" of popular culture and music in the US.

On that note, Britain could be notable ITTL for being a dominant-party Labour government to both add to the Japan parallels and to illustrate how the ancien regime is discredited (including the possibility of the Windsors ending up like the Savoys IOTL due to Edward VIII supporting the regime and all that)

 

[Lalli]

Also would Russia ally with Japan? Japan wouldn't be of much use to Russia in a war with Germany, so Russia doesn't really gain much from the alliance, and if the Russians have any future expansionistic goals then expanding into China is probably their best option. (Which would put them at odds with Japan.)

Russo-Japanese alliance is indeed bit odd. Them have lot of historic rivalry and IIRC them have even some conflicting intrests speciality over Siberia. And they wouldn't are very useful allies for each others. Japan is not helpful against Europeans and probably not too intrested. And Japan would be mostly against Americans but there is not really lot if any hostilities between Russians and Americans.

Seems plausible except I think Russia would be far more likely to be one of the powers jumping on Japan rather than allying with it. I also suspect it would take more than two nuclear strikes to cause Japan to surrender, and that Japan would probably get in some nuclear strikes on the Americans in the conflict as well.

I think that DbE did pretty close what might be most plausible scenario and on my post-SGW headcanon things go about same way that there is war between USA and Japan. And Russia and Chinese rebels would ally with Americans.

I suppose it's possible, though just based on Russian historical behavior a resurgent Russia is probably more likely to see the Ottomans as a target than as an ally.

Agree. And Russians hardly are watching treatment of Christians with good eye. And there is lot of historic bad blood between them.

Would Germany really risk their oil supply to help religious minorities?

I don't think so. That's why Bush didn't go after Saudis after 9/11. And no one haven't really given any shit human rights conditions of KSA anyway. Oil is too important thing for the West.

Practically it will also be very hard for them to provide any meaningful supplies to the rebels since they don't share a land border with any of the rebellious territory.

Agree. And I don't think that Russia and Ottomans have any motivations to mess with Americans anyway. Japan perhaps but not much of capacities. And I can't see Canadians and Mormons remaining eternally hostile. Actually regarding with my headcanon in 1960's young Mormon generation (who have born during SGW) begin to transfer against extremism and many too volunteer to new Pacific War on US Marine. And at some point Mormon leadership condemn extremism and terrorism.

Can't see the TL-191 US allowing Texas to be neutral or the Mexican Empire to be in a hostile alliance.

Very true.

On that note, Britain could be notable ITTL for being a dominant-party Labour government to both add to the Japan parallels and to illustrate how the ancien regime is discredited (including the possibility of the Windsors ending up like the Savoys IOTL due to Edward VIII supporting the regime and all that)

Wasn't Britain intended being bit like Japan? So I could see monarchy surviving like it did in Japan but EVIII is enforced to abdicate. And monarchy is for Brits extremely important thing like monarchy is for Japanese so abolition would be pretty hard. More plausible abolition of monarchy would be in Mexico. Actually I would imaginate that being inevitable since emperors have been only just foreign puppets who have brought Mexico to pointless wars.

 

[Inferno Agent]

Yeah, the more I think about it, Japan and Russia was kind of a "pair the spares" afterthought, I'll be retconning that. I think I now have a better idea than the Ottomans going heel too, thanks to you guys' suggestions-- namely, Confederate influence in South Africa leading to that state rising as an apartheid power and a huge thorn in the CP's side (don't worry, they don't become the Draka lol).

So, summary of changes:

• A-H no longer dissolves
• Japan and Russia alliance is out
• Ottomans still largely tear themselves apart but no longer become antagonistic to the CP
• Japan might get some nukes off in the 60s-70s conflict
• Mexico perhaps collapses (the Empire was never popular in our world after all) without Confederate support
• I really like Whiteshore's idea for the UK, furthering the Japan parallels with the Labour-heavy gov't and phasing out of the monarchy's power and prestige.

Thank you guys again, I really appreciate the feedback.

Should I go back and edit the OP periodically to keep track?

 

[lukedalton]

Italy as a client state is difficult, it's the only great power that was neutral in both war so it will be very very difficult to bully in submission and his relationships with A-H will be between horrible and 'the only reason there is no war is Germany', they have been already allied pre GWI and had not gone well.
Plus there is the still the question of the irredente land and Albania that Turtledove pointed as an Austrian client and for Italy this is one of the big diplomatic red line.

Regarding A-H continued existence, better remember that from the late 30's and after GWII there were rebellion of various ethnic groups that even used suicide bomber so it's hardly this pinnacle of stability and probably the only reason she survive is German help but this also destroy a lot of the government legitimatacy

 

[Inferno Agent]

Italy as a client state is difficult, it's the only great power that was neutral in both war so it will be very very difficult to bully in submission and his relationships with A-H will be between horrible and 'the only reason there is no war is Germany', they have been already allied pre GWI and had not gone well.
Plus there is the still the question of the irredente land and Albania that Turtledove pointed as an Austrian client and for Italy this is one of the big diplomatic red line.

Regarding A-H continued existence, better remember that from the late 30's and after GWII there were rebellion of various ethnic groups that even used suicide bomber so it's hardly this pinnacle of stability and probably the only reason she survive is German help but this also destroy a lot of the government legitimatacy

Yeah, I haven't really worked out what to do with Italy yet, I need to do more research.

And yes, that's actually why I had A-H dissolve in the original pitch, as I don't feel like even being on the winning side of both Great Wars would be enough to stop all of that ethnic strife, especially if it's gone as far as people bombings. A-H is another question mark at this point, I need to work out what I ultimately want to do.

 

[Inferno Agent]

So, I'm still figuring out what to do with Italy, Austria-Hungary, and much of Eastern Europe, but you guys' awesome feedback is really helping and quite appreciated! Random points I came up with today, mostly aimed at making the Central Powers less OP and addressing how pissed people would be at the Tsar after two straight war losses and presumably nothing done for their standard of living.

• When the dust clears after the Three-Day War, Japan is split into two separate nations, controlled by the communist Red Army Faction and the democratic Reformists, respectively.
• Confederate diehards that escape to Africa integrate themselves into local politics and South Africa rises as a powerful regional force, under the oppressive apartheid regime. NATO endeavors to stop them from acquiring nuclear technology.
• The Tsar of Russia finally falls when a second communist revolution occurs in the late 50s, giving way to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics-- 40~ years late, but the Soviet Union has at last entered the chat. The Socialist-ruled US attempts to negotiate with their "fellow travellers", but the Soviets want nothing to do with them after being dominated two wars in a row, and fear over their rapid rise and overt hostility to the Central Powers leads to a Democratic winning streak in subsequent elections.
• The Ottoman Empire remains part of the Central Powers, but is wracked with rebellion in its various territories, with the largest being Christians in Armenia and Jews in Palestine. Shiite Iran and Iraq similarly make a lot of noise, while Germany, A-H, and America try their best to keep things together in order to hold onto their precious oil reserves, even as US opinion at home of the Ottomans sours-- especially among the very groups trying to achieve freedom.
  
  
  
  

 

[bguy]

So, I'm still figuring out what to do with Italy, Austria-Hungary, and much of Eastern Europe, but you guys' awesome feedback is really helping and quite appreciated! Random points I came up with today, mostly aimed at making the Central Powers less OP and addressing how pissed people would be at the Tsar after two straight war losses and presumably nothing done for their standard of living.

• When the dust clears after the Three-Day War, Japan is split into two separate nations, controlled by the communist Red Army Faction and the democratic Reformists, respectively.

Hmmm. Not sure about this. When nations are divided (and the division isn't being forced on them by outside powers), it usually happens because of ethnic or religious differences in different parts of the country. Japan doesn't really have those kind of divisions though, so it's hard to see the people accepting a divided country.

• Confederate diehards that escape to Africa integrate themselves into local politics and South Africa rises as a powerful regional force, under the oppressive apartheid regime. NATO endeavors to stop them from acquiring nuclear technology.

Seems plausible enough.

• The Tsar of Russia finally falls when a second communist revolution occurs in the late 50s, giving way to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics-- 40~ years late, but the Soviet Union has at last entered the chat. The Socialist-ruled US attempts to negotiate with their "fellow travellers", but the Soviets want nothing to do with them after being dominated two wars in a row, and fear over their rapid rise and overt hostility to the Central Powers leads to a Democratic winning streak in subsequent elections.

IIRC in the novels the Russians were already dealing with a significant communist uprising during the Second Great War.

Otherwise I doubt that the Soviets would reject friendly overtures from the Socialists in the US. While it is true that Russia and the US were on opposite sides in the two Great Wars, they never really fought directly against each other, so there probably isn't that much bad blood between Russians and the US. And the Soviet government is going to want recognition from foreign powers, so it would be crazy for them to reject any friendly overtures from the US.

Also, how hostile can the Soviet Union realistically be towards the Central Powers? The nuclear taboo seems much weaker in TL-191 than IOTL, so if the Soviets start acting aggressively towards the German Empire or any of its Eastern Europe satellites, it is likely to very quickly end with Moscow getting incinerated by a German nuke.

• The Ottoman Empire remains part of the Central Powers, but is wracked with rebellion in its various territories, with the largest being Christians in Armenia and Jews in Palestine. Shiite Iran and Iraq similarly make a lot of noise, while Germany, A-H, and America try their best to keep things together in order to hold onto their precious oil reserves, even as US opinion at home of the Ottomans sours-- especially among the very groups trying to achieve freedom.

I hate to say it but how likely is it that there are any Christians still alive in Ottoman occupied Armenia by the 1940s?

 

[Lalli]

Otherwise I doubt that the Soviets would reject friendly overtures from the Socialists in the US. While it is true that Russia and the US were on opposite sides in the two Great Wars, they never really fought directly against each other, so there probably isn't that much bad blood between Russians and the US. And the Soviet government is going to want recognition from foreign powers, so it would be crazy for them to reject any friendly overtures from the US.

Agree. Soviets (or whatever form communism they are achieving) are not going to reject any friendly hand. Red Russia is going to need lot of foreign support that it could reach even tolerable standards. The country has suffered already two world wars and two civil wars in 50 years. It is in poor state so if someone is offering trade deal no one there is not stupid enough to reject an offer. And there is not too bad blood between Americans and Russians since they didn't fought against each others. Did they even declare war to each others?

Also, how hostile can the Soviet Union realistically be towards the Central Powers? The nuclear taboo seems much weaker in TL-191 than IOTL, so if the Soviets start acting aggressively towards the German Empire or any of its Eastern Europe satellites, it is likely to very quickly end with Moscow getting incinerated by a German nuke.

Agree. Like I stated Russia is in really horrible state. It can't be hostile to anyone. It is going to need friends so it could get enough of food and medical supplies and later it is going to need lot of industrial things. In OTL even during Cold War Soviet Union had lot of trade with many capitalist nations because it needed that.

I hate to say it but how likely is it that there are any Christians still alive in Ottoman occupied Armenia by the 1940s?

Depends would Ottomans change their politics after GW1. I doubt that they would are going to continue really long unless Three Pashas remain at power. And I doubt that Ottoman Empire could last with them. There might be some discrimination politics but not sure if they would literally genocide Armenians completely. And lot of them would anyway move to other countries.

 

[Inferno Agent]

Okay, good stuff...I had a long drive to think about stuff. Namely:

• I changed my mind, the USSR *would* be friendly with the Socialist US; you guys are right, they've just had a bloody revolution AND lost two world wars, they're not in a position to be picky. My original idea was that they'd be wary of the US because of their association with the Germans who nuked them, but it makes sense that perhaps the Soviets had different views the whole time-- wanting to be free of the Entente and to reach out to other Socialist powers, but the Tsar kept them in line until finally tensions boiled over and he was deposed. The US and USSR wouldn't be SUPER friendly, especially with Imperial Germany constantly side-eyeing them, but they would have productive trade relations for sure.
• The abruptness of the fall of Japan is cos of a chronic weakness of mine in writing-- I keep thinking of the ends of stories before the beginning. Ideally, we would have the entirety of the 50s to get acquainted with factions like the various colonial uprisings, the Reformist movement, the JRAF, etc...I was silly and wanted to skip straight to the 60s cos that was the "interesting" part of my idea. I need to buck that instinct of mine and spend some time developing Japan before I give them a final fate.
• I had a possible secondary idea for the Central Powers-Japan conflict-- perhaps, instead of what I've already laid out, the CP and NATO declare a "police action" akin to the Korean War in OTL, and they battle Japan to a stalemate before an armistice is declared?
• Random note re: equipment-- the US finally switches from the venerable Springfield to a joint US-German assault rifle based on the unproduced StG-45 from OTL, chambered in .30 US Carbine. Later on, by the later 50s, they transition to a home-built variant of the HK G3.
• Yes, good point re: there not being any Christians or Jews left in the Ottoman Empire to rebel...I get it, honestly in this case it's just me being an optimistic, haha. I wanna believe hope springs eternal and give the minorities of the Empire a chance, you know? But yeah, I get it, I'll give it more thought either way.

Again, thank you all for reining in my baser instincts with all this stuff and providing so much feedback.