The Snow Flies: A History of the Soviet Space Shuttle
- Thread starter nixonshead
- Start date
Decades of neglect? The Soviets certainly invested in the wrong things, but they didn't neglect things.
By contrast, the post-Soviet regimes really did neglect things. TTL's Soviet Union will as well, but I expect it's neglect will be on the level of Belarus and Kazakhstan, rather than of Ukraine. I expect Soviet heavy industry would be in trouble (the steel industry was suffering greatly from resource depletion, and there just wasn't enough iron and coal in the West of the SU to keep existing facilities running economically), the Aral Sea will be a mess (but likely less of a mess than OTL) and I would expect agriculture to decline sharply as most subsidies were withdrawn (greatly increasing efficiency as the Soviets stop importing expensive grain to feed to cattle to make meat and instead switch to importing cheap meat from the West, would also cause a sharp decline in rural living standards however). The Soviet military would also be in chaos and R&D will be suffering. However, I would expect public transport in the cities would continue to be funded, roads and railways unlikely to be neglected, civil servants likely to continue being paid - which would mean less corruption down the road and less selling off of government property by employees and maintenance will not be so generally neglected (I would bet that rural areas and small cities would see decay, larger cities would stay the same and Moscow and Petrograd would see real upgrades).
You are expecting foreign investment to be higher than OTL then?
I didn't mean that sales would be anywhere near enough to fund the entire program, it is an economic sector that sells things foreigners want and consumes things that are priced in rubles, so it will do better than other sectors when the ruble collapses.
Remember that in the 90s, Russia was Kazakhstan's main trade partner, that means they were heavily impacted by the inability of Russian firms to buy their goods.
I would expect that a mostly-united SU would see a decline of between 10-20% of GDP in this scenario - still worse than the Great Depression for the US, but much better overall than OTL.
fasquardon
Another great update, I didn't think there'd be any deviations from the 'every update is a shuttle mission' format, but it's a welcome diversion. I hope we get one for Space Station Alpha too, or if not at least some pretty renders as the Buran shuttle docks to it (at least I hope that'll happen).
About killing off the ISS, that could allow for the TL to pull an Eyes Turned Skywards and have the Chinese put some modules on Mir-2. Then again, with eurosoviet relations being what they are, a chinese-russian cooperation might still seem unworkable to the Chinese due to european interference, or whatever geopolitical mess it is that has made the Chinese space effort so separate from the other programs IOTL.
With two quality updates a week, I certainly feel spoiled! If it's not been said before, I will certainly compliment you on the improved quality of your renders. I wasn't missing anything with the way that they were, but it seems they're getting in ways I never even considered. Keep it up!
About killing off the ISS, that could allow for the TL to pull an Eyes Turned Skywards and have the Chinese put some modules on Mir-2. Then again, with eurosoviet relations being what they are, a chinese-russian cooperation might still seem unworkable to the Chinese due to european interference, or whatever geopolitical mess it is that has made the Chinese space effort so separate from the other programs IOTL.
With two quality updates a week, I certainly feel spoiled! If it's not been said before, I will certainly compliment you on the improved quality of your renders. I wasn't missing anything with the way that they were, but it seems they're getting in ways I never even considered. Keep it up!
The "geopolitical mess" is the United States, specifically the United States Congress, which has (so far as space is concerned) treated the Chinese as if they were the Soviets during the height of the Cold War. It is illegal for NASA to participate in any kind of bilateral activity with China, even innocuous and routine stuff like, say, putting a Chinese instrument on a NASA spacecraft. Which is the reason they aren't involved in ISS (strictly speaking that's a multilateral arrangement, but the United States is the big partner, so...)
So long as the United States isn't involved, Chinese participation shouldn't be an issue, if they're interested.
My thanks for the explanation. I was under the impression it was the Chinese that were unwilling to cooperate, but I have no real explanation why I thought that. Probably western bias
Technically it's a little of column A, a little of column B. Historically, it was a bit of a Chinese goal to as much as possible not be anyone's junior partner while also running their manned programs on even more of a shoestring than someplace like Japan. In the early 90s when ISS was coming together, they didn't have a manned vehicle and weren't interested in fast-tracking one, so they didn't indicate they wanted to be asked. During the end of the 2000s, with Shenzhou flying, they started to indicate they'd be okay with being wooed to join, but by that point more of the US congressional shenanigans picked up and in 2011 it was actually passed into law on the US side that we won't let China be part of our space clubhouse.My thanks for the explanation. I was under the impression it was the Chinese that were unwilling to cooperate, but I have no real explanation why I thought that. Probably western bias
ryhs said:
Well, "Priroda" (77KSI) remains a mostly-empty shell at Fili, but Zarya has not been ordered. IOTL it started construction in 1994 as part of a deal with the US on the ISS - having been added after some cunning political manoeuvring by the Khrunichev company - but ITTL, with a spare 77K module already available for Magellan, there's no need to build a new module. Similarly "Nauka" never gets ordered. However, it's quite possible both names will be used for different modules.
The Progress M2 modules are planned to be something similar to proposals OTL's Enterprise module. IOTL this was replaced by the Mini Reseach Module concept (Rassvet, which in turn is based upon the pressurised module of the NEP science power platform.
The KKP in Fili KKP stands for "Kosmicheskaya Kompaniya Proizvodstvo" (Space Production Company).
Well, if you're not a fan of the ISS, I'm not sure you're able to celebrate. It's less that the ISS has been killed, than that it has split (or remained) in two, Mir-2 and Alpha. So you get two bloated, government space stations for the price of... two
fasquardon said:
Sorry, imprecision on my side. With 'infrastructure' I had in mind more the antiquated industrial plant than things like public transportation. The 'neglect' in that case is more simply a reflection of the lack of upgrades since the start of the Period of Stagnation under Brezhnev than not maintaining the existing base.
fasquardon said:
No, probably about the same, or maybe a bit less given that TTL's USSR is less able to step out from under the reputational shadow of its past than OTL Russia was able to. It's entirely possible I'm overestimating the amount of investment that went on in both timelines.
fasquardon said:
Ah, okay. Yep, sounds fair then.
fasquardon said:
I think here we're at the nub of it. My gut's saying a bit more of a drop, just based on a feeling of the difficulty of converting from a command to market economy. It's quite possible I'm being overlly pessimistic, but I think I'm still within the realms of the not-too-implausible, so as the backdrop for the main thrust of the story I'm comfortable with what's written. (Thank goodness I resisted my instinct to try to get into the detailed political developments more, or I would likely have written myself into a very deep hole!) Regrettably, I don't see a likely scenario that would free up enough funds for frequent Energia launches and a large OSETS-scale Mir-2 in the 1990s, or at least not without a significantly earlier PoD.
TheBatafour said:
Thanks! I felt that Mir-2 was a big enough topic that it needed its own post to give the background information, rather than taking up half a "xKy" post with a space station info-dump. On Sunday we'll be back to the usual format.
Alpha won't be getting a similar post of its own, but I am considering a spin-off timeline...
TheBatafour said:
Workable Goblin said:
TheBatafour said:My thanks for the explanation. I was under the impression it was the Chinese that were unwilling to cooperate, but I have no real explanation why I thought that. Probably western bias
e of pi said:
Just to add here, so far ITTL China has not been discussing joining the Mir-2 programme, though they have made deals with the USSR for engine and capsule technical knowledge and cosmonaut training, as per OTL. For now they're focussed on getting their own crewed spacecraft built. After that..?
TheBatafour said:
Thanks! The illustrations I've been doing for various timelines on this forum has been a great way for me to learn and practice new skills. It's thanks to all that practice that last year I got my first paying job doing CGI illustrations - so I'm now officially available for hire (rates negotiable)
The Brezhnev stagnation was relative - even during the Brezhnev years, the Soviets were investing a larger proportion of their national product than the US was.
Much of that investment went into the oil industry and much investment was poorly spent (during the Brezhnev period, as a money saving wheeze the Soviets continued to invest new tools and machines for factories but cut investment into new buildings, meaning that modern machinery was being installed in factories that weren't designed to hold them, leading to an inability to fully utilize much of this modern machinery).
Real neglect only set in after 1991.
Foreign investment was much talked about on both sides of the iron curtain, but the actual amounts of investment were quite small, even after 1991.
What education is your gut drawing from though? When I started researching Soviet and post-Soviet economics, I found that the picture I'd built up from reading the work of English-speaking journalists was... Not supported by the actual statistics.
In any case, the regime in Moscow TTL could easily be making new mistakes that mean the SU is doing worse than a giant Kazakhstan (for example, investing too much in the Ukrainian rust belt). Also, Nazarbayev is likely to have other priorities than the space program. For example, the space budget could be suffering due to the Union diverting more funds to subsidize the governments of the Republics (as Nazarbayev tries to bribe away nationalism). Funds may be going to build the Nazarbayev airport in Moscow, complete with gold-plated statues to the great leader etc.
So what you've written in the updates is quite plausible, but I think the economic events that you hint at would be quite different from OTL's economic events, even if their effect on the space program is similar.
fasquardon
My turn "to put one's oar in"
That ISS is dead in this TL is not surprise for me
In OTL ISS almost was killed by US Capitol Hill, would not be for "the little international agreement" NASA sign with Europeans and Japanese...
NASA save it's Space station with help of that agreement, but based on 1993 Option A-3
Far scale down version of planned Freedom or today ISS.
but still NASA has to launch more stuff in space as for ISS like US Habitat module.
on Euromir
one of problem of Euromir was lack of soviet module to modified for ESA, since MIR was complete in orbit and it rest sell to foreign countries, in TL this not happens.
another problem was death of French ESA Hermes program what had offer ESA access to Euromir module,.but since the Buran flies making it attractive for ESA.
I just wonder were are the French "Spationaute" ?
the French space agency CNES has a arbitrary way, with close ties with USSR.
there Astronaut group was incorporated into ESA team only in year 1999 !
while first french went 1982 into space to Soviet Space Station.
I had expect that French CNES "Spationaute" would do the Euromir mission in behalf of ESA.
while the germans and other ESA astronauts work on NASA space station module "Columbus".
and there also the Chinese going into space and since US Capitol Hill made that idiotic ruling "no cooperation with China"
USSR will be willing to let Chinese into Station Mir-2 from 2005 on...
That ISS is dead in this TL is not surprise for me
In OTL ISS almost was killed by US Capitol Hill, would not be for "the little international agreement" NASA sign with Europeans and Japanese...
NASA save it's Space station with help of that agreement, but based on 1993 Option A-3
Far scale down version of planned Freedom or today ISS.
but still NASA has to launch more stuff in space as for ISS like US Habitat module.
on Euromir
one of problem of Euromir was lack of soviet module to modified for ESA, since MIR was complete in orbit and it rest sell to foreign countries, in TL this not happens.
another problem was death of French ESA Hermes program what had offer ESA access to Euromir module,.but since the Buran flies making it attractive for ESA.
I just wonder were are the French "Spationaute" ?
the French space agency CNES has a arbitrary way, with close ties with USSR.
there Astronaut group was incorporated into ESA team only in year 1999 !
while first french went 1982 into space to Soviet Space Station.
I had expect that French CNES "Spationaute" would do the Euromir mission in behalf of ESA.
while the germans and other ESA astronauts work on NASA space station module "Columbus".
and there also the Chinese going into space and since US Capitol Hill made that idiotic ruling "no cooperation with China"
USSR will be willing to let Chinese into Station Mir-2 from 2005 on...
Yeah, Burya is just a museum exhibit unless one can make another rocket as big as Energia to lift it on. This also means making facilities to handle the big components.
Soviets always designed all their rockets for horizontal assembly, so at least the French would not have to build something as big as the VAB at Kourou--anyway not as tall. But perhaps rivaling it in volume anyway, a bloody huge hangar that would at any rate be tall enough for an entire Energia core's diameter, with clearance on top for Burya to perch there, and wide enough for four Zenit type boosters. They might replace the Soviet designed and built engines and tanks with French ones, but in gross volume and general dimensions the rocket would be about the same size no matter who designed it, and the engines must deliver the same net thrust. The building would be very tall, even wider, and quite long, and the only reason it would not be as big as VAB is that the latter could do two or more stacks simultaneously.
Then finally they need one heck of a big launching pad. At least one, maybe more if they worry a stack might blow up someday.
Then again if the French are purchasing Burya instead of copying it, they've only got the one, and if something happens to it, launch rockets for it are moot.
Unless they go the Shuttle C route and use their Energia import or copy to boost other 100 ton payloads. Then they'd want the backup launch pad too.
All of this in a poor distant colonial outpost!
China perhaps, if soviet leaders are willing allow a cooperation, but it could end that china put a improved Copy of Burya on improved Copy of Energia on new Chinese Launch pad.
Example:
Once it was Riga the pride of Soviet Navy, then Ukraine Varyag
Now as the Liaoning is Fundation of Chinas Fleet of Aircraft Carriers!
Soviet or French crewed though?
The Soviet Orbiters are clearly not meant to be money-savers; the Soviets never believed STS would save money and believed the Americans built them for quite other purposes.
Energia, I suspect, could become a money saver, provided the market exists to use the tremendous increase in mass to orbit frequent launches would be able to place there. That is, if the basic, fundamental cost of fabricating the components, none of which are reusable, were to fall low enough with steady and heavy demand. And quality control were good enough that with rising rate of launches one still manages to avoid a disastrous pad blowup or very very costly loss of payload.
With frequent launches, Energia could reinstate the plan to recover the booster rockets. But this presupposes a mass market for really large tonnages going to orbit, and since the USSR clearly cannot afford this, it supposes foreigners are willing to spend money on a massive scale, and yet prefer to purchase launch services from the Soviets rather than develop them themselves.
If France is not keen to spend that kind of money, and spend it with the Russians getting the revenue and construction and launch management contracts instead of French citizens, then what exactly can they do with Burya based in Kazakhstan? They could launch some free-flyer Space Winnebago missions I suppose, and they could fly missions to a future Soviet space station, one they presumably pay a lot of money themselves to get built, and perhaps supply some made-in-France modules for. Perhaps, depending on orbital mechanics and thus the choices the Americans made, they can fly to a US station instead. For France to build a Euro-station they'd have to go considerably farther in financially than they dared to OTL, and to avoid the massive costs of totally duplicating Energia capabilities from a French site (Kourou, there is no place else really--and really French Guiana is an excellent launch site after all) including building their own Energia cores on site (this could either be an overseas Soviet operation or French under license--I don't think there is any way for the cores to be first built at Baikonur and then shipped overseas, so one way or another it needs to be built elsewhere, perhaps at any port city and then loaded onto a ship--and can anything that big be hauled from Cayenne port or whatever the main port of FG is to the Kourou launch site?) they have to as suggested launch out of Baikonur, which means their entire investment is held hostage to Soviet politics.
With so many ties to the USSR, how will the French be able to tout Burya as something that enhances French prestige?
Also don't forget the author has told us the decision to mothball Burya is not to store it for future use in better times, but to save more money by shutting down production facilities for a great many vital parts of their Orbiter design, and cannibalize Burya to keep Buran going without those parts being made new. The French could remedy this by offering to prepare to replace those parts with new French constructions. This hands France partial ability to make their own copies of the Soviet Orbiter, and surely French aerospace is good enough to reverse engineer the other parts.
Operating Burya from the USSR then might be part of a larger scheme to slowly build up a capability of launching a similar French-made Orbiter from Kourou if they are prepared to make a comprehensive set of facilities there to build entire Energia-equivalents.
Of course for them recovering the Zenit analogs would be a matter of fishing them from the Atlantic and not retrieving them from the Soviet landscape; some redesign of the recovery system would be in order.
Given that OTL the Chinese have been content to slowly and very gradually upgrade Long March and their most capable rockets yet as of 2017 still fall far short of Energia's class, and that they have zero experience with hydrogen-oxygen and damn little with ker-lox, all the LM being hypergolics, some with solid booster augmentation, that would surely be a very high magnitude, you know, large, extensive in scale, move and also pretty sudden, not a slow pace or a cautious crawl or even brisk step, but something like a jump....
...you know, a Great Leap Forward!
Seriously I suppose they could develop some hypergolic upgrade of Long March to replace the Zenits, maybe a set of big solids instead, but there is no substitute for the hydrogen engined Energia core stage capability. That they either license from the Russians or figure out how to build themselves, with considerably less legacy and infrastructure to go with than the French have.
That's not quite true any longer; the Long March 5 has a hydrolox core stage. So they actually have about as much experience with hydrolox (1 successful launch) as with kerolox (3 successful launches; the Long March 6 and 7 launches, plus the Long March 5 launch, since it has kerolox boosters). But overall I agree with you, the Chinese are really unlikely to grab the Energia at all. Their schtick has always been developing indigenous capabilities, once they got the initial kick of Soviet designs back in the '50s and '60s.
I don't think ESA could or want to buy a shuttle, the price is too high, making Hermes will be cheaper.
For Europe, a more interesting option is to give USSR money to pay for the shuttle maintenance, and ESA cosmonauts have guaranteed seats on the shuttle flight on MIR-2, and maybe 1 or 2 launches for truly massive payloads.
As other said there aren't many payloads massing over 10 tonnes, Europe do not need an as big launcher as Energia.
Look at the ESA rockets: Ariane 5 can launch 20 tonnes in LEO and 10 to GTO, but the light version of Ariane 6 will launch only 5 or 6 tonnes to GTO.
For Europe, a more interesting option is to give USSR money to pay for the shuttle maintenance, and ESA cosmonauts have guaranteed seats on the shuttle flight on MIR-2, and maybe 1 or 2 launches for truly massive payloads.
As other said there aren't many payloads massing over 10 tonnes, Europe do not need an as big launcher as Energia.
Look at the ESA rockets: Ariane 5 can launch 20 tonnes in LEO and 10 to GTO, but the light version of Ariane 6 will launch only 5 or 6 tonnes to GTO.
Ahem Ahem
May i present the Long March 5 with four Kero/lox booster and Core with Hydo/lox.
A yeah, the Booster use two High Pressure engine
The Long March 7 using same Kero/lox engine
The Long March 6 using Kero/lox