The Reign in Spain a Spanish civil war no fly zone

[Andrew Hudson]

There was a cartoon in the Daily Mail at the time of a wedding between the Spanish monarchy and another European country in 1964 with the caption coming from someone's mouth that "The reign in Spain depends mainly on the plane". Franco's forces won owing to their air superiority recieving aid from Italy and Nazi Germany whilst the Republican had a few mig fighters and at o ne time Soviet pilots and some converted American civil aircraft. Following Munich but more as a consequence than any agreem,ent Soviet fighter aircraft were withdrawn and the fate of the Republic was sealed.

The Legue of nations adopted a non intervention policy implementing an ineffective ban on foreign volunteers and there were non intervention naval patrols with Britain and France blockading nationlistt areas and Germany and Italy republican areas. Germany and Italy shipped arms via fascist Portugal. There appears to have been no policy regarding the air.

However suppose the League of Nations brought in a no fly zone during the war. I suspect it wouldn't have come in overnight and would probably have come in too late to prevent the airlift of nationalist troops from Africa at the start of the war but might have come in to force when the League of Nations brought in its ban on foreign volunteers in February 1937 and would probably have recieved enthusiastic support from Leon Blum. Without air superiority the Republicans may well have won. Germany and Italy whilst ostensibly supporting non intervention naval patrols would have been put on the spot and were unlikely to have risked war. Also the Condor legion would have been unable to gain combat experience that was later put into effect against Britain, France, Poland, and the Netherlands and later Soviet Russia.

So what would have been the effect of a Spanish no fly zone.



Assumi

 

[RyuDrago]

I guess at that time there will not be the concept of no fly zone...

 

[Helicon One]

Before Guernica, Coventry, Pearl Harbour, Dresden, Hiroshima etc, there's no real widely-held idea of how devastating air power can be, so its not really likely that the LoN are going to jump on the concept of the no-fly zone.

And if they do, in all likelihood Germany and Italy laugh at the idea and carry on flying regardless. Who is going to enforce such a resolution, exactly, and with what?

 

[lukedalton]

And the problem, even if for some reason this idea is debated and someone try to implement it's how? Radar were in their infancy and not very mobile, you need a series of spotter (who can hardly cover all and are not 100% reliable) and frankly with Germany and Italy involved there is too much fear to be engaged in combat with them and cause even more trouble

 

[Andrew Hudson]

I think the thread is not the most improbable thread on the website. The Condor legion would have been operating at some distance from its base and there would have been problems with supplying it.

Had Germany been challenged over sending troops into the Rhineland in 1936 Nazi Germany would have been stopped in its tracks as the generals were ready to topple Hitler if he was challenged. However going to war over German troops occupying German territory would be hard to sell to the British and French public but challenging them over intervention in Spain would have been another matter. Germany was still exercising with wooden replica tanks and wasn't ready for war. German and Italy were signed up to non intervention naval patrols they would have found it hard to justify sending aircraft if challenged.

There was some knowledge of the damage that could be caused by air power. The were the Zeppelin raids in the First World War, Britiish bombing in Iraq in the 1920's and Italy had started air raids in Abyssinia in fact there was if anything an exaggerated fear of air power. Could we have stopped Germany and Italy? Yes with fighter aircraft given that Germany wasn't ready for war and they were committed to non intervention naval patrols then they aren't going to do much if a few of their "volunteers" are shot down. As it was soviet fighter aircraft were able to hold back Franco's forces.

So it wasn't impossible the problem lay more in the lack of political will as Abyssinia and Japanese aggression in Manchuria showed the League of Nations was a paper tiger. However clipping Germany's wings in Spain may have stopped Nazi Germany in its tracks resulting in no World War 11 and the defeat of fascism in Spain. Vival La Qunia Brigada!

My questions wasn't however about the likelihood of a no fly zone but the consequences

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

At the time, neither the real influence of air power was really understood, nor was nationalist air superiority really decisive to the final outcome of the war. You are approaching a 1936 problem with a 2011 mindset that did not really exist at the time.

And besides, saying that the Republican airforce consisted of "a couple Migs" is false. If anything, the Republicans enjoyed air superiority during the first months of the war, since the air force was the only part of the army where the communists held some influence, and up to 75% of the existing airforce ended in the Republican side after the Alzamiento.

 

[mrmandias]

Um, kinda the opposite really. 'The bomber always gets through.' What would be more accurate is that while air power was very much appreciated as a terror weapon, its overwhelming power as a tactical instrument was not.

Before Guernica, Coventry, Pearl Harbour, Dresden, Hiroshima etc, there's no real widely-held idea of how devastating air power can be, so its not really likely that the LoN are going to jump on the concept of the no-fly zone.

And if they do, in all likelihood Germany and Italy laugh at the idea and carry on flying regardless. Who is going to enforce such a resolution, exactly, and with what?

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Without radar and aircraft with extremely long ranges/hours of dwell time how do you even enforce a No-Fly Zone, assuming someone gets the idea? You'd need a constant rotating CAP going and a really good network of airplane spotters, which is a hell of a lot of cost and manpower and maintenance/wear and fuel. Now multiply that by 5-20 times to cover all of the "zones" you'd need to protect given aircraft ranges of the time compared to the length of the front...non-starter, I'm afraid.