Thandean Representation: The 2010 and 2015 UK Elections under a New Voting System
- Thread starter Thande
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Alex Richards
Donor
This definitely fits the 'feel' factor for a fairer system so far. Labour still dominant in Manchester but with more Tories and Lib Dems having a chance in some areas.
Thande
Donor
This is a weird constituency because it puts together one of the Toriest parts of Greater Manchester with others that...aren't. Turnout differential makes a difference, with TOPVOTE being more favourable to the Tories than ALLVOTE (which in 2015 interestingly returns the exact same result as OTL FPTP). The Lib Dem collapse was slightly less dramatic here in part due to Brophy standing again, but they still easily miss out on a seat in 2015 under either system.
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Thande
Donor
One of the Labourest parts of Greater Manchester, but not quite Labour enough to win all three seats - in 2015 UKIP narrowly missed out on overtaking the Tories to win the third one. Andy Burnham tops the polls both times but it's close between him and the other two Labour candidates, all of them in a range of just over a thousand votes of difference between them (with each taking over 20,000).
Thande
Donor
And with that, Greater Manchester is done, so here is a map.
Although this is not meant to be a truly proportional representation system (merely 'more proportional than FPTP') you can see that the Conservative results typically are quite proportional, while Labour is overrepresented, the Lib Dems are slightly underrepresented and UKIP in 2015 is very underrepresented. I personally do not see this as a problem, because of the same 'gut feelings' thing Alex alludes to above, it makes sense to me that a party that enjoys widespread support across a region should get an informal 'bonus' from a voting system while a party with an impressive-looking percentage but spread thinly here and there (like UKIP here) should only be rewarded with seats if it can geographically concentrate that support--just not so unforgivingly as in FPTP.
Interestingly TOPVOTE and ALLVOTE produce the same numerical results (though not the same individual MPs) in 2010, but diverge in 2015.
Anyway, this is Greater Manchester; I will look at some other areas in future (this is a rather long-term project), perhaps looking at Greater London quite soon. NB I already drew the borders and did the calculations, so don't bother making suggestions on how to combine constituencies--my decisions are probably very flawed, but they're the ones I've used consistently throughout this so I don't want to change course halfway through.
Although this is not meant to be a truly proportional representation system (merely 'more proportional than FPTP') you can see that the Conservative results typically are quite proportional, while Labour is overrepresented, the Lib Dems are slightly underrepresented and UKIP in 2015 is very underrepresented. I personally do not see this as a problem, because of the same 'gut feelings' thing Alex alludes to above, it makes sense to me that a party that enjoys widespread support across a region should get an informal 'bonus' from a voting system while a party with an impressive-looking percentage but spread thinly here and there (like UKIP here) should only be rewarded with seats if it can geographically concentrate that support--just not so unforgivingly as in FPTP.
Interestingly TOPVOTE and ALLVOTE produce the same numerical results (though not the same individual MPs) in 2010, but diverge in 2015.
Anyway, this is Greater Manchester; I will look at some other areas in future (this is a rather long-term project), perhaps looking at Greater London quite soon. NB I already drew the borders and did the calculations, so don't bother making suggestions on how to combine constituencies--my decisions are probably very flawed, but they're the ones I've used consistently throughout this so I don't want to change course halfway through.
Thande
Donor
Yeah, the ALLVOTE system seems to best reflect my feelings of what the result "should" look like in 2015 based on how the voting patterns shifted--I doubt the TOPVOTE system will often turn out better considering how arbitrary it is when applied to a 'put together FPTP constituencies' setup as opposed to existing bloc vote wards.
Everything looks good, but what is the "Iberal Democrats" on the graduated key colors? Spanish-speaking liberals? 
Thande
Donor
Everything looks good, but what is the "Iberal Democrats" on the graduated key colors? Spanish-speaking liberals?
Blarg, Windows 7 Paint
Incidentally your part of the world pissed me off while drawing the constituencies, although actually it's North Wales' fault: see it would seem most logical to combine both parts of Carmarthenshire with Pembrokeshire and then Ceredigion with the two Powys seats, but because that would leave North Wales with an even number of seats, I had to scrap the idea in favour of something much more awkward looking.
Alfie - yes, TOPVOTE definitely produces weirder results. Suffice to say that the Lib Dems in 2010 are going to have some...odd breakthroughs as a consequence due to them typically increasing turnout in a target seat even when they didn't win it in OTL.
That's... four seats, I think? CW&SP+CE&D+PP+Llanelli means four. Don't forget that Llanelli is part of Carmarthenshire!Blarg, Windows 7 Paint
Incidentally your part of the world pissed me off while drawing the constituencies, although actually it's North Wales' fault: see it would seem most logical to combine both parts of Carmarthenshire with Pembrokeshire and then Ceredigion with the two Powys seats, but because that would leave North Wales with an even number of seats, I had to scrap the idea in favour of something much more awkward looking.
Thande
Donor
That's... four seats, I think? CW&SP+CE&D+PP+Llanelli means four. Don't forget that Llanelli is part of Carmarthenshire!
Yeah, I ended up doing something with Llanelli instead--you'll see, anyway.
Thande
Donor
Yeah, I was going to bring that up in the OP but I forgot. Scotland was indeed dealt with because the isles are a special case. Wales...I had to do something with Wales where the only way it won't massively offend everyone is if I could simultaneously convince both sides that they were irredent-ing the other. You'll see.
Alex Richards
Donor
Very nice, for my two cents, TopVote appears to have produced a slightly more proportional vote here, but that may be an accident due to the various issues with data conversion that you've mentioned. AllVote is definitely better than OTL, but still seems to benefit dominant parties to an extent.
Thande
Donor
No, because then there would be only one seat per constituency, and the top party would win it...which is just FPTP.
Anyway, I think I'll do my own South Yorkshire next BECAUSE PROVINCIALISM. To make the number of starter seats divisible by 3, I have annexed Hemsworth from West Yorkshire to South Yorkshire. I think this is reasonable because it is culturally similar - my dad used to work there and until I started making election maps I didn't even know it wasn't in South Yorkshire.
Barnsley is a stronghold for the Labour Party and they manage to win all three seats under ALLVOTE in 2015, but not otherwise. Under TOPVOTE in 2015 they would lose DAN JARVIS, SAVIOUR OF THE UNIVERSE, and AH.com would weep.
Thande
Donor
My own fair[citation needed] Doncaster, a natural community with its 3 MPs and one whose Labour dominance is a little fragile when you scratch the surface. The Tories and UKIP were closely matched for the third seat in 2015 and it goes a different way depending on the calculation. Caroline Flint loses out as she represents the least Labour seat of the three, Don Valley - ironically considering the Don Valley seat (with different boundaries) used to be one of the most strongly Labour in the country and remained a safe Labour seat even in 1931.