Sultan Erdogan: Arab Spring ATL

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Part 9: Visit to Damascus

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In early December, Erdogan arrived in Damascus to tour the city and meet with the new Syrian interim government. He was greeted by Syrian interim President Moaz al Khatib. Khatib, a former Imam in Damascus, was an Islamist leader with an ideology ever similar to Erdogan's. Khatib gave Erdogan a tour of two most historic sites in Damascus the Umayyad Mosque and Mausoleum of Saladin. After the site seeing the two leaders held a joint rally in central Damascus surrounded by cheering crowds.

Erdogan spoke of the Caliphate as a "Golden Age" and when the Islamic world was "strong and united." He then spoke about the Kurdish leader Saladin and how in the future the Arab people should look towards the holy land and the al-Aqsa Mosque.

Erdogan's speech was meet with universal condemnation in the West. President Obama released a statement saying he was "deeply concerned." German Chancellor Merkel called the speech "disgusting."

The strongest condemnation came from Texas Governor Rick Perry who lashed out at Turkey:

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"Turkey is a country that today is ruled by what many would perceive to be Islamic terrorists. Its time for us to have a conversation on whether Turkey belongs in NATO and its time for the United States when we look at their foreign aid to go to zero. Then you have the conversation of do they have America's best interests in mind and when you have countries like Turkey who are moving far away from the country that I lived in back in the 1970's as a pilot in the United States Air Force, that was our ally and worked with us, but today we don't see that. Our President has a foreign policy that makes our allies very nervous and emboldens our enemies. The President clearly has to send a message that their is no space between the United States and Israel period and we need to send a powerful message to countries like Iran and Turkey that the United States is serious and that you will be dealt with. "

Congressional Republicans quickly took up Perry's proposed measures and discussed the suspension of foreign aid to Turkey.

Erdogan responded to the criticism fiercely saying "We have no concern about what the United States and EU might say, whether the EU accepts us as members or not, we have no such concern. Please keep your wisdom to yourself and do not try to jeopardize our national security." He did however try to smooth things over, Davutoğlu was sent to Great Britain to meet with David Cameron to discuss boasting trade between the two nations.

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Looks like Rick Perry is taking the hypocritical "my way or the highway" approach to US foreign relations. :mad:

I'm loving this TL! :D
 
I have a feeling that Erdogan's 'Golden Age' speech is going to be compared to GWB's mission accomplished speech.

Even though Assad is gone and there is a Syrian Opposition that took over, by no means is the situation stable. The biggest challenge that the Turks will have is making sure the Syrian Opposition is recognized as the legitimate government of Syria, and enabling it to make sure that neither Kurdish nor proto-ISIS types begin to act up.

All and all, I'm loving this TL...
 
Part 10: Rebuilding Syria

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Post Assad Syria was slowly recovering from effects of war. The Syrian interim President Khatib government was recognized internationally as the sole legitimate rulers of Syria. A new Syrian army had been established from rebel fighters and remnants of the Assad military. War hero Mustafa Al-Sheikh become Defense Minster with former FSA leader Raid al Assad as his Chief of Staff. The central government gave its support to local councils in order to get the country running again. Life returned to a state of somewhat normalcy in most of Syria's cities.

Despite these successes a number of major problems remained. Turkish soldiers, were still needed for stability, and to stave of rogue elements. In the Alawite heartland, resistance movements lead by former Syrian Army officer Suheil al Hassan were gaining traction. In Aleppo and Idlib, the Al Qaeda affiliated al Nusra Front was carrying out terrorist attacks. In the Eastern Provinces, Al Qaeda in Iraq was attempting to exploit the situation. Kurdish fighters were also occasionally raiding Turkish Military posts in both Syria and Turkey itself. While non of these groups had the power to topple the Khatib government they were still a grave concern.

The most decisive blow to the Khatib government however came from outside Syria. On the night of January 31st, 2013 the Israeli Air Fore slipped into Syria undetected bombed a weapons storage facility in Damascus, killing a number of people, before withdrawing. The operations objective was to destroy weapons allegedly destined for Hamas. The incident caused outrage among the Syrian populace and criticism of the new government's failure to even engage the intruders. In aftermath of the Israeli raid extremists within Syria took it upon themselves skirmish with Israel soldiers on the Golan Heights.

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Part 11: Conference in Doha

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In March at the invitation of the Qatari Emir, Erdogan arrived in Doha for a major foreign policy summit. In attendance were delegations from resistance fronts of Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, along with the Iran. The goal of the Emir was to bring the these groups together in a coalition dubbed "Resistance and Resilience" to prevent further violence in Syria and unify the fight against Israel.

Erdogan gave the key note address to the group summarizing is hope for the Middle East.

" Israel is pouring bombs on Gaza, while the West is keeping silent. Unfortunately, the Islamic world is also keeping silent. The Islamic world is also merely watching, while we all know it is our children who are dying in Palestine. It is our very own brothers who become martyrs in Palestine. Humanity is dying in Palestine. The honor of humanity is dying. I wonder how badly Allah, who is all seeing, thinks of us when he sees the situation. For this reason we can no longer practice sectarianism. We cannot practice Shiaism. We cannot practice Sunnism. We are obliged to only shout out that we are Muslims."

The delegations were amazed at Erdogan's prophetic words and pledged to support to Turkish efforts in the region. Iran claimed they would bring Hassan's Alawites under control provided Erdogan granted them access to Syria. They also stated they would pressure Iraq to try and clean up its border with Syria. Qatar did their part agreeing to either convince al Nusra to halt its attacks or cut off its source of funding. Going forward Turkey, Qatar and Iran vowed to deepen economic ties and increase cooperate.

This summit proved to be a major success for Erodgan, he had hopefully lessened the Syria problem, secured his eastern flank and gained powerful friends in the battle with Israel.
 
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In OTL Qatar has been trying to get Turkey and Iran closer, the main obstacle to this has been Assad. In this ATL, since Assad is out of the picture, nothing major stands in the way of Turkey and Iran joining forces.
 
In OTL Qatar has been trying to get Turkey and Iran closer, the main obstacle to this has been Assad. In this ATL, since Assad is out of the picture, nothing major stands in the way of Turkey and Iran joining forces.

I can just hear the Israel supporters in the US government's heads exploding. :p
 

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Turkey vs Israel :eek: well that escalated quickly.

Israel will see this alliance as threat to its existence. Obama is shitting his pants as we speak and republicans are going batshit crazy. There will be calls for kicking Turkey out of NATO and stopping all sales of weapons, technical support etc

Erdogan if he is this crazy will want to have nukes and soon. Iran and Turkey cooperation with Pakistan in obtaining nukes makes sense I think.

Saudi Arabia is in panic and will be looking to obtain nukes. They will also look as to where to pour money to counter this situation. They are terrified of Iran and Iran + Turkey is stuff of nightmares for them.
 
Things are heating up pretty quickly! What do the Saudis think of this new Turco-Persian axis?

They are definitely not going to be happy. Saudi King Abdullah was rumored to have a very bad relationship with Erdogan and this can only make things worse. Might even push the Saudis closer to Israel.
 
They are definitely not going to be happy. Saudi King Abdullah was rumored to have a very bad relationship with Erdogan and this can only make things worse. Might even push the Saudis closer to Israel.

Unofficially, I'm sure. Anything that looks even remotely like Saudi Arabia supporting Isreal will result in the population revolting.
 
They are definitely not going to be happy. Saudi King Abdullah was rumored to have a very bad relationship with Erdogan and this can only make things worse. Might even push the Saudis closer to Israel.

Their population won't like that though, like, at all.

They risk much in openly declaring against an Erdogan that must be now seen as paladin of Sunni muslims against Assad, and now Israel.
 
Another key player is Russia, who previously had been Assad's ally. What does Putin think of all this, and seeing Turkey's newfound influence could he in fact see this as an opportunity to maintain influence in the middle east and also get a one-up on the US?
 
Another key player is Russia, who previously had been Assad's ally. What does Putin think of all this, and seeing Turkey's newfound influence could he in fact see this as an opportunity to maintain influence in the middle east and also get a one-up on the US?

Erdogan allowed Russia to keep its naval base in Syria, so they have some level of trust. Turkey is going to need allies since the United States and EU are turning against them.

Russia along with Turkey's D-8 allies can provide the most assistance going forward:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-8_Organization_for_Economic_Cooperation
 
I'm going to put up two more posts tomorrow. Erdogan is going to take a very bold move that will leave Israel embarrassed and the best part is its going to be nonviolent. ;)

The next posts after that i'll dive into reactions, to the events of the past few months, and the situation in different countries.
 
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