STRAIGHT TO HELL-A Tea Party TL

[Osterreich]

'STRAIGHT TO HELL'
A Tea Party TL


This is a tough game. You can't be intimidated. You can't be frightened. And as far as I'm concerned, the Tea Party can go straight to hell'-Maxine Waters

It was a surprise to many that the GOP had managed to claw back into a respectable national position over the abject failure of the second Bush administration and the electoral losses in 2006 and 2008. So, it was even more surprising to those to find that the Republicans had the upper hand in many Senate races-and possibly had the opportunity to retake both chambers. The Tea Party “Revolution” seemed to be as powerful and electorally potent as President Obama’s campaign, if not more so.
No use crying over split tea-Michael Haley

Likely Nominee Chuck DeVore (R-CA).

With just a few weeks before the earliest primary, the Senate elections seem to be becoming more and more in reach for the Grand old Party.
Emboldened by a new wave of enthusiasm, titled by most as the 'Tea Party', the primaries seem to be set to buck incumbents out of office, as well as establishment Washington figures running for higher office. The Tea party candidates in races almost all look ready to win their primaries, including Chuck DeVore of California, Joe Miller of Alaska and Sharon Angle. Their opponents, ranging from incumbents to mega-rich businessmen seem unable to connect with this new vocal group, and are suffering for it. With huge general election success looking likelier and likelier for the GOP in general the only question is whether the DNC can fend off enough challengers and support their candidates with the political punch to retain control of the House, or even the Senate.
Politico-Henry Dash February 14th 2010

Allen West (R-FL) at a campaign stop in Tallahassee
'The Tea Party movement was mis-characterised by many in the beginning, I believe, as something that would prove fleeting and would recede as the same-old candidates would gradually win their nominations and go back to Washington. The Tea Party was mis-characterised as a movement that would just roll over and let the socialists in the White House take our freedoms. The Tea Party was mis-characterised as a movement that was racist, fascist, reactionary, nationalist, evil and even as one congresswoman put it, that we, of all people, would go to hell. I’ll tell you what, we’re going to Washington instead, and when we get there we’re going to restore America to it’s true greatness'
Excerpts from a closed speech for donors-Allen West (R-FL) 2012

John McCain (R-AZ)
“It would be unwise however to believe that even in the wake of establishment GOP candidates and incumbents looking weak in their primaries, the traditional GOP is weakened this cycle. So far, incumbents John Thune (R-SD) and John McCain (R-AZ) have failed to pick up any Democrat opponents at all, and look likely to cruise to re-election'
Excerpts from The Washington Post- Jean Capet March 20th

Rudy Giuliani at a campaign stop in Brooklyn
'The people of New York have been failed by Governor Spitzer, Governor Paterson and the Democratic Party. The people of New York demand a voice to shout to Washington that we are no longer going to put up with failure. Today I announce my candidacy for the United States Senate to represent the great people of New York to serve along men and women on either sides of the aisle to get things done- to get real solutions to problems that the White House cannot. My name is Rudy Giuliani and just as I stood nine years ago now, our nation facing its greatest threat since World War Two, I stand here today to address potentially an even greater threat. We need real leadership in Washington, and we need it now!”
Excerpt of Rudy Giuliani's speech on March 25th 2010

RUDY GIULANI ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY AGAINST LIKELY DEM NOMINEE KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND, LIKELY TO WIN
CNN.com- March 25th 2010

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Hopefully this first update teased the point of divergence for this TL. I've been a long time lurker on the forums and finally got around to writing-and while I'm pretty sure it's all factually correct, please PM me or comment if I've made any mistakes.​

 

[CT23]

Looks interesting so far.

If you're looking to have the GOP do better, the most obvious thing right now I can think of is have Mike Castle win the GOP Delaware U.S. Senate primary instead of Christine O'Donnell.

 

[Craig_Truglia]

Giulliani will still lose to Cuomo.

 

[Osterreich]

Looks interesting so far.

If you're looking to have the GOP do better, the most obvious thing right now I can think of is have Mike Castle win the GOP Delaware U.S. Senate primary instead of Christine O'Donnell.

While Castle had a hell of a lot better chance at winning the general, a 2010 primary would always favor O'Donnell, especially with the bump I'm giving the Tea Party in this TL.

 

[Osterreich]

Giulliani will still lose to Cuomo.

Did i not make it clear enough? I meant for Giuliani to be running against Gillibrand in the Senate race.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Giulliani will still lose to Cuomo.

he's running for the senate


it would be a lot more fun if he took on schumer though; that would be a freaking meeting engagement

the NYGOP (a disaster if there ever was one) had high recruitment hopes in 2010... something like Pataki vs Gillibrand, Rudy vs Schumer and Pete King vs Andy Cuomo

all three dems benefited from running against no-names and in Cuomo's case, running against an actual psychopath; turnout was pathetic

andy in particular was in no means a forgone conclusion and he actually ran pretty far to the right to secure support (as david patterson and elliot spitzer had done a fine job completely tarnishing the party the previous 4 years)

he ran on a platform of union busting, tax cuts and property tax caps (and passed all three his first year in office which saw his approval rate surge to the high 60's) which tells you the mood of the state then

 

[Expat]

This looks like fun. The Giuliani tease seems out-of-step with the main purpose of the TL. Along with McCain and I guess Thune, are you setting up a more militant response to Tea Party victories from within the GOP?

 

[vultan]

You didn't mention Christine O'Donnell. Does she still win her primary? If Mike Castle had been nominated, that's an instant GOP gain right there.

There were several other Republican primaries this cycle where credible conservative challengers lost to mor mainstream Republicans. I'm thinking the Tennessee gubernatorial primary, the New Hampshire Senate primary, and the Iowa gubernatorial primary, among others. And will there be more Ron Paul-influence on certain primaries?

Finally, Herman Cain ran against Johnny Isaakson for the US Senate back in 2004, but lost in the primary. What if he tries for a Tea-fueled comeback here?

 

[thekingsguard]

interesting start, curious where you'll go with this

 

[Plumber]

he's running for the senate


it would be a lot more fun if he took on schumer though; that would be a freaking meeting engagement

the NYGOP (a disaster if there ever was one) had high recruitment hopes in 2010... something like Pataki vs Gillibrand, Rudy vs Schumer and Pete King vs Andy Cuomo

all three dems benefited from running against no-names and in Cuomo's case, running against an actual psychopath; turnout was pathetic

andy in particular was in no means a forgone conclusion and he actually ran pretty far to the right to secure support (as david patterson and elliot spitzer had done a fine job completely tarnishing the party the previous 4 years)

he ran on a platform of union busting, tax cuts and property tax caps (and passed all three his first year in office which saw his approval rate surge to the high 60's) which tells you the mood of the state then

Aye, I remember the possibility being bandied about before the NYGOP completely FUBAR'd in 2010.

I also remember Democrats talking about knocking off McCain in 2009, so the thought of him being unopposed is ridiculous.

 

[CT23]

Was there a better candidate to go against Harry Reid in 2010 than Sharon Angle? I know a lot say a better GOP candidate could have beat Reid, but it doesn't seem like there was an obvious better choice like in the Delaware primary.

 

[Admiral Ackbar]

If you are having the Tea Party do better in the 2010 primaries, then I don't see how Giuliani wins the nomination. He's exactly the type of Republican they considered a RINO, and would work to defeat.

A better performance by the Tea Party also means Kelly Ayotte probably loses to Ovide Lamontagne in the New Hampshire Senate primary. She barely won by 1,659 votes in the OTL. So McCain and Graham don't have their replacement for Lieberman when he retires as the third member of their little neocon foreign policy club. Then there's the chance Lamontagne loses in the general election to Hodes. Prior to the primary Lamontagne was performing the worst among the 4 Republicans against Hodes, only leading by 3 points in an R-leaning Rasmussen poll in mid-September.

What I'd really love to see, although it would be really tough to pull off, is an upset victory by J.D. Hayworth over John McCain. Maybe Jim Deakin sits out the race and his votes go to Hayworth, and maybe McCain says something to upset the Tea Party. I think the idea of the Republicans dumping the guy who was just their candidate for President less than two years earlier would be hilarious.

 

[NickCT]

Was there a better candidate to go against Harry Reid in 2010 than Sharon Angle? I know a lot say a better GOP candidate could have beat Reid, but it doesn't seem like there was an obvious better choice like in the Delaware primary.

Sue Lowden

 

[usertron2020]

Shouldn't this be in Chat?

Anyway, a 2010 Tea Party blowout? As seen in OTL plus a little more? Good news. For 2012 Democratic candidates. As shown in OTL also.

What do the Democrats get in 2012? 2008 2.0? Do the Dems regain (marginally) the House? Regain the Senate margin lost in 2010?

Interesting.

Subscribed

 

[Osterreich]

TL Update 2

'STRAIGHT TO HELL'
A Tea Party TL​

This is a tough game. You can't be intimidated. You can't be frightened. And as far as I'm concerned, the Tea Party can go straight to hell'-Maxine Waters​

Herman Cain (R-GA) after announcing his bid​

“Grandfathers Pizza CEO and Radio show host Herman Cain announced his bid for US Senate today, challenging Republican incumbent Johnny Isakson for the second time in six years.​

We are now joined by one of our political correspondents James Woolworth, a writer for Tea Party website redstate.com and conservative activist.​

Thanks so much for coming James.”​

“I’m happy to be here”​

“So, What do you make of Mr. Cain’s chances James?”​

“We’re seeing a lot of buzz around this candidate, and I think, for good reason, because he’s got a lot of experience with building a business in a way that not many candidates have- and he’s gonna, uh, due to his , uh, racial background, connect to urban voters that might not vote Johnny Isakson because he’s another, you know, white, old, man.”​

“Would I be correct in saying he’d be the first African American senator in the south since reconstruction?”​

“What of course would be interesting in this, uh, election is if Cain won the primary and faces off against likely democratic nominee Mike Thurmond. Either would be the first African American to serve Georgia but also the first African American in the south since reconstruction.”​

“Is Mr Cain considered the Tea Party candidate in this race?”​

“Mr Cain is definetely the Tea Party candidate in this race, he’s a newcomer to the political world in the same vein of Ron Johnson but also a very successful beacon of conservative values, you know, he speaks about his beliefs with a lot more credibility coming from a situation where he made something of himself. The man could be a very strong force in the Republican party in the years to come, an alternative to the Tea Party messages nominees Rubio and Paul are putting out.”​

What about the changing demographics in Georgia?”​

“Look, Georgia is a solidly Republican state. It’s going to take years for that to change. But it’s still the state that elected Jimmy Carter. There’s a sizable African-American demographic that if energized can pose a huge boost to the usually hopeless Georgia Democratic party. The last blue statewide win for Democrats was Sam Nunn- and he retired in 2007. That’s what makes Cain interesting-he has an insight into this very valuable demographic which you saw Obama court very well 2008 and as a rags to riches success story he has the kind of political prowess that you could see in a future Presidential candidate”​

Fox News Coverage-March 28th 2010​

Bruce Blakeman (R-NY)​

Today, New York Lawyer Bruce Blakeman launched his first TV ad for the special election for US Senate. With the backing of Tea Party groups and the endorsement of Carl Paladino (running for New York Governor) he has quickly risen in the polls to challenge initial favourite Giuliani, who he claims is a “RINO” and a “closet democrat” referencing Giuliani's stance on guns.​

New York Times-Michelle Stewart May 25th 2010​

BRUCE BLAKEMAN NOW POLLING AT 34% OF REPUBLICANS, GIULIANI AT 60
CNN Poll-Conducted May 27th 2010​

J.D Hayworth (R-AZ)​

Probably the earliest sign of the extreme friction between the GOP Establishment and the Tea Party was the Arizona Senate race in 2010. John McCain, a very popular incumbent who had yet to attract a serious opponent in the general election, was challenged by ‘consistent conservative’ congressman J.D Hayworth. Hayworth instantly gained traction within Tea party groups, despite McCain’s endorsement by his VP Pick two years prior, Sarah Palin. Throughout the race, McCain was hounded by Tea Party groups for his bipartisan credentials-and after the other Tea Party candidate was convinced by Hayworth to drop out (with the promise of gaining Hayworth’s seat) the race was a dead heat.​

This race symbolised just how fractured the Republican party was becoming. Two years ago, McCain was the nominee for the highest office in the land, now he was being chased by an unskilled, average politician without the name recognition of fundraising talent of a nominee for President. Could McCain’s maverick label, which had propelled him to success in 2008, be his downfall just two years later? On Primary day, the party got their answer.​

No use crying over spilt tea-Michael Haley​

2010: A New Hope​

Death of the Neocons? With John McCain facing an uncertain re-election, Joe Lieberman retiring and a President reluctant to entangle himself with the Middle East, the death of the ideas that gripped both Bush presidencies seem to be in their dying hours.​

The New blood of the Republican party is preaching a new Republican brand of foreign policy. Not-really-but-kind-of-Isolationism. Senate nominee Rand Paul of Kentucky , utilising the vast fundraising power of his father’s last campaign in 2008 and utilising his ‘different’ foreign policy ideas, has won his party’s nomination for the Senate in an upset against Kentucky Secretary Of State Trey Greyson. In Utah, Tea Party Mike Lee favourite preaches a similar position, and both are likely to win their general election and become Tea Party darlings.​

The Neoconservative light has not fully been snuffed out however. In the Granite state, attourney general Kelly Ayotte narrowly leads the Republican primary-albeit by only one percent (well within the margin of error). Pursued by Tea Partier Ovide Lamontagne Kelly has stated that “the future U.S. “grand strategy” should be grounded in the understanding that 1) There is no substitute for American leadership and action; 2) Most major national security challenges require the U.S. to work with our allies; 3) The U.S. must repair the economic foundation of our military power, and 4) America's continued prosperity and security demand that we repair the readiness of our armed forces and maintain military power beyond challenge.” Her primary victory is still being held under question however, although endorsements by prominent figures such as Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have given Tea Party voters a reason to take a look at what seems to be a very competent candidate who could broaden the Republican brand, and who provides an alternative narrative to the Tea Party.​

Excerpts from Politico- June 23rd Harry Scott

Christine O’Donnell (R-DL) Signing books​

In perhaps the most confusing primary campaign of recent memory, the Republican Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell famously stated that she “dabbled in witchcraft”. Infuriating her Tea Party base which was religiously devout was apparently she couldn’t get enough of when she clarified that: ​

“One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar and I didn't know it. I mean, there was a little blood there and stuff like that.
We went to a movie and then had a little picnic on a satanic altar.”​

However, the conservative zealotry of her voters seemed to be more powerful than their religious zealotry, and O’Donnell rode the Tea Party wave to victory in her primary over competent Mike Castle, stunning pretty much all onlookers.​

Stupidest Elections of History-Marco Letto, released 23rd September 2018​

Tom Emmer (R-MN) Running whilst Running ​

In traditionally Democratic Minnesota, The Republicans seem set for the second time to steal the governors Mansion. In a state which was voted democrat every time since Nixon (the only state to go blue in Reagan’s second run), the Democrats haven’t won the governors mansion for twenty years. Two Republicans and a Pro Wrestler have held the office since then, and the Democrats had their eyes on this race as a prime pickup opportunity. Not anymore.​

Due to the Republican boom fuelled by the Tea Party, the pickup chances are looking smaller and smaller every day-especially with the socially liberal economically conservative draining the democratic support in the north star state. Tom Emmer, touting his record in congress, has maintained a close race with republican adversary Marty Seifert for weeks, ignoring the outcome of the state convention and continuing on, spurred by rising poll numbers. The election looks like a small win if Emmer is nominated against presumptive nominee Mark Dayton-with the independence party picking up around 15% of the vote. Dayton can take solace in the fact that victory is still within sight. The Republicans running seem to have hit the ceiling in regards to poll numbers due to party loyalty and positions, whilst Mark can speak to socially liberal centrists that usually vote for the Independence party in statewide elections but return into the fold in the Presidential elections. ​

Excerpts from The Washington Post- Jean Capet June 10th​

 

[Admiral Ackbar]

OMG, this is going to be awesome, subscribed. So Herman Cain is running for the Senate seat again, only now he has a chance to get a boost from the Tea Party wave against Isakson. I also assume it was Deakin who sat out the race in Arizona, giving Hayworth a better shot against McCain.

 

[Osterreich]

Aye, I remember the possibility being bandied about before the NYGOP completely FUBAR'd in 2010.

I also remember Democrats talking about knocking off McCain in 2009, so the thought of him being unopposed is ridiculous.

I think the Dems of this TL are trying to focus on senate races in blue states-just like in otl they have a massive fundraising disadvantage so they have to prioritise races.

 

[Osterreich]

You didn't mention Christine O'Donnell. Does she still win her primary? If Mike Castle had been nominated, that's an instant GOP gain right there.

There were several other Republican primaries this cycle where credible conservative challengers lost to mor mainstream Republicans. I'm thinking the Tennessee gubernatorial primary, the New Hampshire Senate primary, and the Iowa gubernatorial primary, among others. And will there be more Ron Paul-influence on certain primaries?

Finally, Herman Cain ran against Johnny Isaakson for the US Senate back in 2004, but lost in the primary. What if he tries for a Tea-fueled comeback here?

As for the Ron Paul influence, you won't see much more influence than IOTL. But in the future? Perhaps there's more in store for Paul...

 

[Osterreich]

This looks like fun. The Giuliani tease seems out-of-step with the main purpose of the TL. Along with McCain and I guess Thune, are you setting up a more militant response to Tea Party victories from within the GOP?

Throughout the last two years if the Tea Party had complete and utter control over the right I think you'd see a much more militant response-especially from those who want to actually do things in Washington. I don't think that the party could avoid direct confrontation ittl than the pandering and placating of the two factions iotl.

 

[vultan]

A couple minor critiques. Herman Cain was the CEO of Godfather's Pizza, and Sam Nunn retired in 1997, not 2007 - and technically, the Democrats won the 1998 gubernatorial election (Roy Barnes) and the 1996 Senate election (Max Cleland).

Other than that, great stuff! Does Paladino have a stronger challenger than Rick Lazio?