Soviet Union annexes Mongolia: possible?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Thande, Sep 8, 2009.

  1. Thande Brexit Out Now, Funk Soul Brother

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    OTL neighbouring Tannu Tuva remained independent from 1924 until its annexation towards the end of WW2; however, that was on the request of the Tannu Tuvan government itself.

    During the second world war Mongolia was still de jure a part of the Republic of China, though it had been de facto independent as a Soviet ally since the 1920s; in 1945 Chiang Kai-shek conceded its independence in exchange for Stalin recognising Inner Mongolia as part of China. However, is there any way that the USSR could have annexed Mongolia altogether? I'm guessing this would have to come at the end of WW2 rather than later on - while it would perhaps be more plausible to do so at the time of the Sino-Soviet split, it would probably provoke Cold War confrontations.
     
  2. Fenwick Uncrowned ruler of Hippies

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    I think it would be rather easy to include Mongolia into the USSR. The enitre idea of the USSR was a collection of Republics under a single government. Would a Mongolian SR really be treated differently then any other? In many ways I can see little encouragment needed to connect the Mongols to the USSR. Perhaps in the 1930's with industry booming, and the Soviets the envy of the world for how it is dealing with the Great Depression, Mongolia decides it can get more money, and more help as part of the USSR, then as a mere ally.
     
  3. Thande Brexit Out Now, Funk Soul Brother

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    Perhaps, though I don't know what it would do to Sino-Soviet relations.

    Anyway, I wonder what would happen if we assume no butterflies and the USSR falls as OTL; presumably Mongolia would be a member of the CIS...
     
  4. Fenwick Uncrowned ruler of Hippies

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    Maybe, maybe not. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia the former USSR states have few to turn to and depend on besides Russia. Mongolia is in a position to pick what it wants. China, Russia, even Japan, South Korea, and the USA can offer economic help to Mongolia. After all when the USSR fell China was still an issue.
     
  5. Thande Brexit Out Now, Funk Soul Brother

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    Hmm: China did manage to get hold of those islands on the Amur it wanted in 1991. I wonder if they might try some territorial revisionism against Mongolia in this scenario as well...
     
  6. RGB Corn Squared

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    That would require a different Stalin. He has to switch away from his pro-KMT position pretty early. In that case, all of Mongolia could be an SSR, for example. But the relations will be thoroughly ruined, for sure.

    The other issue is Mao. He may trade away the North in return for victory, but he'll probably be back for his later, say in the 60s.
     
  7. Fenwick Uncrowned ruler of Hippies

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    That would be interesting.

    In 1991 Soviet Union falls apart and the PRC sends a simple request to Mongolia to return to China. Some in the Mongolian communist party agree, yet the growing Democratic movement is against it. China continues to focus on gaining Mongolia as an ally or neutral as it is still concerned about Russia. So it acts in the proper manner by encouraging the Communist faction to action. What follows is a brief two day coup, with former Communist Party members, and Red Army factions taking the nation.

    Russia reacts in a mix of shock and rage. In Moscow the coup was stopped and Democracy brought to the land. Everyone was happy, now an area which for close to fifty years was considered Russian soil is under a Chinese backed Communist regime? Doubt any would stand for that. I see backing of anti-Communist forces by Russia of all things. After all this is not about ideology but pride, something Russia clings to.
     
  8. xchen08 Member

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    I figure the Soviet Union is not going to want an even longer border with China. If it did annex Mongolia in the 30s or 40s, it's going to regret doing so by the 60s and 70s. Adding Inner Mongolia too is going to be troublesome, mainly because it would require pretty major ethnic cleansing to prevent the Mongolian SSR from having a Han Chinese majority.
     
  9. CanadianGoose Banned

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    Another issue to consider is Stalin's dogged insistence on keeping the trappings of pre-WWI Russian Empire's relationships with surrounding territories. May be he thought it would add legitimacy for his regime, I dunno, but still. Baltics were but a gubernias (non-self-governing provinces) of the Russian Empire, so they became part of the USSR. Poland and Finland were self-governing territories, so they were allowed to exist as vassalized states. Tuva and Outer Mongolia were "zones of Russian economic interests" in this quaint 19th century colonialist system in Asia, so they were kept as "independent" countries (designation had been dropped in case of Tuva when it became meaningless).
     
  10. tallwingedgoat Well-Known Member

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    Is it possible? Yes certainly. Mongolia was ruled as a de facto SSR until after Stalin's death. He could at any point formalize the arrangement. The reason it wasn't done was largely in consideration of relations with China and Japan.

    Annexing Mongolia would greatly arouse the Japanese who saw Manchuria as their backyard. During WWII the Soviets initially backed China against Japan but later signed a neutrality pact with the Japanese. Annexing Mongolia would simultaneously increase tensions with Japan and chill relations with China. It was in the interest of Moscow not to have peace break out in China with Germany barking on its doorstep.

    After the PRC was established the Soviets had a hard won Chinese recognition of Mongolian independence and an alliance with China. Soviet strategic position in Asia was at its apogee, there was no reason to upset a good thing.

    By the time of the Sino-Soviet Split at the height of the Cold War, the Soviets could ill afford to further arouse the Chinese by annexing Mongolia. At the very least the Chinese would withdraw their recognition of Mongolian independence and a lasting border dispute would begin where there was none.

    That's a lot of trouble to gain a piece of wasteland.
     
  11. Hendryk Banned

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    I second this assessment. In practical terms, annexing Mongolia would have been very easy, it was indeed already run as a de facto SSR. But the place was more useful to the Soviet Union as an ostensibly independent country.
     
  12. RGB Corn Squared

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    Plus you got the UN votes :p
     
  13. lichtbringer Banned

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    Yes, the socialist mongolia was very close to the soviet union. The mongols counted on the big brother as a protection from a unfriendly chinese takeover. I think the only cause because Mongolia didn't become a fully integrated soviet republic is that the USSR wants Mongolia acting as a buffer between them and china.
    After the fall of the USSR the chinese are gaining more influence in mongolia but, to say it mildly, aren't very liked there.
    The relation to japan has improved greatly but there are still some reservation because it is said that Unit 731 was also active in Mongolia.
    South Korea is viewed most friendly by mongols. That's no suprise if you know that 80% of soap-operas and tele novellas in mongolian tv are south korean productions.
     
  14. Iori ダークアビスの特使。

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    I wonder, had for whatever reason they done so, would Tuva be added onto Mongolia, I mean changing borders and adding and subtracting areas to others (internally) was'nt exactly abnormal for them.

    Mayhap when the USSR falls their would be a slightly larger Mongolia that included Tuva, that would certainly make the border more interesting.

    And take away area from Russia, which I generally approve of.
     
  15. Mr.Wigglemunch Well-Known Member

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    Because Mongolia is realistically possible especially if done just before world war 2 ( inner and outer ) then therefore isn't it possible the USSR annex Manchuria immediatly following world war 2? Or even possibly other areas too.