Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[Derek Pullem]

Losses on the German side for the North African campaign, according to wikipedia, amounted to ~22K troops killed or missing, and ~180K captured, plus the loss of (collectively with the Italians), 2,550 tanks ~70,000 trucks, ~6,200 guns, ~8,000 aircraft and ~2.4M tonnes of shipping. Sure this won't mean all that much on the offensive, but once the tide turns, the Germans will have fractionally more soldiers, and they'll be slightly better equipped, which, combined with the increased losses the Soviets are taking here, might slow the Soviets down in their advance.

Bit misleading. This link has German tank deliveries by month to North Africa.
https://rommelsriposte.com/2013/03/07/german-tank-arrivals-in-north-africa/
yes there would be some more tanks available but probably not more than 7-800 of Pz III / IV / Tiger
Trucks are a double edged sword as the Redball Express found out later in France. They can help over a short distance but the longer the lines run (as in Case Blue), the more they are drinking their own fuel.
The real reinforcement of North Africa actually came after the defeat at Stalingrad

 

[MattII]

The worse the situation in Russia gets for the Russians, the more pressure Churchill is going to feel under to do something like go in in the Balkans to try and get Turkey into the war or run his 'Operation Jupiter' to liberate Norway and clear the Arctic Convoys route from anything except whatever interference the Axis can run from Finland.

When Churchill makes his trip to Moscow to meet Stalin in mid-1942 (or this timeline's equivalent) the discussions about 'where next?' should be interesting...

Well one big thing he could do would be to build up Rhodes and Crete as air-bases, and bomb the merry hell out of Ploesti. At the very least, having to keep aircraft back to stop the Breitish bombing their oil wells will decrease the number of fighters the Germans have at the front.

Bit misleading. This link has German tank deliveries by month to North Africa.
https://rommelsriposte.com/2013/03/07/german-tank-arrivals-in-north-africa/
yes there would be some more tanks available but probably not more than 7-800 of Pz III / IV / Tiger
Trucks are a double edged sword as the Redball Express found out later in France. They can help over a short distance but the longer the lines run (as in Case Blue), the more they are drinking their own fuel.
The real reinforcement of North Africa actually came after the defeat at Stalingrad

I was more thinking that the lack of extended deployment of vehicles to Africa would mean more spare parts and replacement vehicles for the formations in the East. It also slightly lightens the load on the rail networks, as you don't need to spend the trains and cars getting all of that stuff across the Alps.

 

[jlckansas]

Until you change the Russian rails to German gauge you cannot just run trains to your troops in Russia. You need to have transload points where you take the material off one gauge and put it on another. You either do this by taking it off of one car and putting it into another or you lift the car up and change out the trucks(wheel sets). You cannot just change the locomotives like that, you actually have to have another type to run on the other gauge. Germany had this problem from the time they invaded Russia at the start of Barbarossa till they finally were pushed back to Berlin.
Partisans themselves will cause all kinds of problems all over, either gauge lines make no difference, and even at their peak the Germans were not able to protect every mile, kilometer for those types, and had to make constant repairs and replacements to the RR supply system.

 

[Paulo the Limey]

Until you change the Russian rails to German gauge you cannot just run trains to your troops in Russia. You need to have transload points where you take the material off one gauge and put it on another. You either do this by taking it off of one car and putting it into another or you lift the car up and change out the trucks(wheel sets). You cannot just change the locomotives like that, you actually have to have another type to run on the other gauge. Germany had this problem from the time they invaded Russia at the start of Barbarossa till they finally were pushed back to Berlin.
Partisans themselves will cause all kinds of problems all over, either gauge lines make no difference, and even at their peak the Germans were not able to protect every mile, kilometer for those types, and had to make constant repairs and replacements to the RR supply system.

There’s also the issue iirc that Russian locomotives had longer range between coaling/watering than German ones, so they had to relocate a lot of the supporting infrastructure.

 

[yulzari1]

I do not know what seagoing resources the Axis could muster in the Black Sea but it is possible that the Axis could obtain sea control of the Black Sea as another logistics route in addition to the rail and road ones. Now the problem is how many worthwhile vessels could they scrape up without impinging upon their own internal shipping. Could they commercially employ Turkish shipping and, if so, would the Turks have a view upon that? Can the return voyages carry enough oil from the Caucasus fields to Germany etc. to make a difference?

These are questions I ask from pure ignorance of the issues, not to ride any hobby horse.

 

[pjmidd]

I do not know what seagoing resources the Axis could muster in the Black Sea but it is possible that the Axis could obtain sea control of the Black Sea as another logistics route in addition to the rail and road ones. Now the problem is how many worthwhile vessels could they scrape up without impinging upon their own internal shipping. Could they commercially employ Turkish shipping and, if so, would the Turks have a view upon that? Can the return voyages carry enough oil from the Caucasus fields to Germany etc. to make a difference?

These are questions I ask from pure ignorance of the issues, not to ride any hobby horse.

Short answer no, if Türkiye lets them use the straits for military purposes, its declaring war on the allies. Not a sane option in 1942 even in OTL, let alone ITTL with a better allied performance.

 

[MattII]

That doesn't preclude shipping within the Black Sea itself. If the Black Sea becomes an Axis lake, that could lead to the Axis using it to ship goods without requiring trains.

 

[Wet Coast]

Short answer no, if Türkiye lets them use the straits for military purposes, its declaring war on the allies. Not a sane option in 1942 even in OTL, let alone ITTL with a better allied performance.

The Montreux Convention allows the passage of merchant vessels with "Complete freedom of navigation and passage by day and by night under any flag and with any kind of cargo". It specifically states that in time of war the same conditions apply (so long as Turkey is neutral). So the Axis could set up a maritime supply route, but of course the RN may have something to say about this.

 

[MattII]

A lot depends on if the Axis have the Corinthian Canal open yet. If they don't, getting stuff to the Strait in the first place will be a challenge.

 

[pjmidd]

The Montreux Convention allows the passage of merchant vessels with "Complete freedom of navigation and passage by day and by night under any flag and with any kind of cargo". It specifically states that in time of war the same conditions apply (so long as Turkey is neutral). So the Axis could set up a maritime supply route, but of course the RN may have something to say about this.

Except that's not exactly what happened in OTL, merchant ships deemed armed did get stopped. Both Türkiye and Germany were also aware the US was/is not a signatory to the convention and Türkiye was worried the US might try and force a change to the rules post war.

 

[Monty Man]

I do not know what seagoing resources the Axis could muster in the Black Sea but it is possible that the Axis could obtain sea control of the Black Sea as another logistics route in addition to the rail and road ones. Now the problem is how many worthwhile vessels could they scrape up without impinging upon their own internal shipping. Could they commercially employ Turkish shipping and, if so, would the Turks have a view upon that? Can the return voyages carry enough oil from the Caucasus fields to Germany etc. to make a difference?

These are questions I ask from pure ignorance of the issues, not to ride any hobby horse.

Yes and they did. To support the advance towards Baku. It was sucessful and shipped thousands of tonnes of supplies from Romania but it started too late once Rostov had been secured and Soviets were able to get reinforcements in before Rail lines were shut to the caucausus. Days matter and here in this ITTL the Germans have weeks, almost a month extra.

 

[MattII]

Yes and they did. To support the advance towards Baku. It was sucessful and shipped thousands of tonnes of supplies from Romania but it started too late once Rostov had been secured and Soviets were able to get reinforcements in before Rail lines were shut to the caucausus. Days matter and here in this ITTL the Germans have weeks, almost a month extra.

So this could make a significant difference after all?

 

[Wet Coast]

Except that's not exactly what happened in OTL, merchant ships deemed armed did get stopped. Both Türkiye and Germany were also aware the US was/is not a signatory to the convention and Türkiye was worried the US might try and force a change to the rules post war.

I believe that armed merchant ships were regarded as naval axillaries and under the convention these would be subject to the same rules as warships. Essentially I think the Turks would do whatever they felt was in their best interests and then find a way to justify it. In any event most shipping in the Black Sea would be from Rumanian ports as that avoids the whole issue and doesn't involve playing hide and seek with the Royal Navy in the approaches to the Straits.

 

[Derek Pullem]

So this could make a significant difference after all?

Not convinced. My take is that it improves things in short term but the outcome is likely to be the same or even worse if more of the troops targetting the Caucasus oil fields get stranded by the Russian counter attack near Stalingrad / Rostov.

I don't think it improves things enough for the Germans to reach the Turkish border and the oil fields. Certainly not before they have been permanently put out of use.

 

[mundi_mundi]

... Four Tank Corps had been created, each consisting of three tank brigades, a truck mounted infantry brigade, a reconnaissance battalion, a battalion each of mortars, multiple rocket launchers, anti-aircraft artillery, as well as combat engineers and eventually a transport company. Each Tank Brigade was equipped with 32 Medium T-34s and 21 Light (BT 7 or T60). With an authorised strength of 7800 men, and 168 tanks, the tank corps were thought to be similar to the weakened German Panzer Divisions...

@allanpcameron Should that headcount of 7,800 refer to each tank brigade or each tank corps? I know the Soviets manned their formations differently to the West, but 7,800 for "three tank brigades, a truck mounted infantry brigade, a reconnaissance battalion, a battalion each of mortars, multiple rocket launchers, anti-aircraft artillery, as well as combat engineers and eventually a transport company" seems like a lot of formations for that kind of manpower.

 

[pjmidd]

Certainly not before they have been permanently put out of use.

And that's the key bit, the German plan of how to get oil back to Germany was pretty much "the soviets will gift us the wells/train engines/rolling stock/lines etc undamaged and magically there will be no impact the rest of our logistic capacity ". Even if they get the fields, they will be of no use bar denning them to the Soviets.

 

[pjmidd]

@allanpcameron Should that headcount of 7,800 refer to each tank brigade? I know the Soviets manned their formations differently to the West, but 7,800 for "three tank brigades, a truck mounted infantry brigade, a reconnaissance battalion, a battalion each of mortars, multiple rocket launchers, anti-aircraft artillery, as well as combat engineers and eventually a transport company" seems like a lot of formations for that kind of manpower.

At this point Soviet unit titles were exaggerated, Divisions were actually equivalent to German Brigades, Tank Corps to Divisions etc. Even with that they were often chronically understrength

 

[Cryhavoc101]

At this point Soviet unit titles were exaggerated, Divisions were actually equivalent to German Brigades, Tank Corps to Divisions etc. Even with that they were often chronically understrength

To your point the below shows the formation of a 1942 Russian 'Tank Brigade' with 48 tanks

By comparison a German Panzer battalion of the same period - with 54 Pz III, 10 Pz IV and 27 odd Pz II (91 tanks - although often less light tanks than authorised) was nearly twice as strong as the Russian Brigade (although no infantry attached)

 

[mundi_mundi]

At this point Soviet unit titles were exaggerated, Divisions were actually equivalent to German Brigades, Tank Corps to Divisions etc. Even with that they were often chronically understrength

Thanks all. I knew Soviet unit titles were usually 'out' by Western standards. I probably talked around it a bit when I said "the Soviets manned their formations differently to the West..." But having got my Google on I take your point, eg: https://warandtactics.com/smf/tank-mechanized-corps/soviet-tankmech-corps-in-wwii/ refers to "[in Spring 1942] an authorized strength of 5,603 men ... [that] included no artillery, reconnaissance or engineer units, nor any service support elements." Which I'm assuming makes up the extra ~2,200 men to get us to 7,800.

 

[Astrodragon]

So we send our supply shipping into a bottlneck covered by salivating RN sub commanders.
Thats going to end well...