Scotland Votes Yes: First Forty-Eight Hours.

[Devvy]

Northern Ireland: Although a lot of people would jump at the chance of joining with the South, a lot would also want to stay in the UK or join with Scotland. This would be a messy event and remember that the 'Troubles' still linger in the minds of a lot of the population (as it does in the UK as a whole), many would not want to stir up trouble when things are going ok at the moment.

I wonder whether the Republic of Ireland would really want Northern Ireland. Hearts would obviously overwhelmingly say yes, but the head? There is a strong, separate regional identity, with a large minority population. And the level of social spending in NI is something I think the RoI would really struggle to maintain.

 

[CultBoy]

I wonder whether the Republic of Ireland would really want Northern Ireland. Hearts would obviously overwhelmingly say yes, but the head? There is a strong, separate regional identity, with a large minority population. And the level of social spending in NI is something I think the RoI would really struggle to maintain.

A United Ireland would get to enjoy a constantly annoyed, sometimes violent minority of "Unionists/Protestants". Instead of the UK enjoying a constantly annoyed, sometimes violent minority of "Nationalists/Catholics".

 

[Sanderford]

A United Ireland would get to enjoy a constantly annoyed, sometimes violent minority of "Unionists/Protestants". Instead of the UK enjoying a constantly annoyed, sometimes violent minority of "Nationalists/Catholics".

Possibly leading to a marked expansion of the Irish Defense Forces, and some necessary changes to support that.

If Scotland became a separate country, then the 800,000 or so Scots living south of the border would become aliens. Does that mean that they would have to return to Scotland to apply for Scottish Passports and then apply for working visas so they could live and work south of the border?

If memory serves the policy on that was that all Scots living in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would have become legally Scottish citizens, with options for dual U.K./Scottish citizenship if they wanted it, and Scottish by itself if not. This could possibly have given the new Scottish state continued access to newly foreign U.K. work markets.

 

[libbrit]

There would be quite a reaction against Scotland-not violence, but in political terms, almost instantly. Public opinion, which had grown increasingly pro union in the weeks coming upto the vote in the rest of the UK (80+% wanted Scotland to stay in some polls), would radically go the other way toward the "fine, if you hate us that much, get out and dont let the door hit you on the way out"-people who feel spurned are not predisposed to charity toward the spurn-er.

As an example, a friend of mine who has never been a particularly Pro Scotland in the union kind of person-from Wales, not England FYI, emailed me this copy of a petition he was planning to launch on the Government E-petitions site in the event of a Yes.

The result is in. Scotland has rejected the Union. We the undersigned accept this.

We the undersigned call upon the govt to remember that it answers to the UK. Scotland is a foreign nation now.

The govt should,

Reject a currency union, unless the UK controls Scots tax & borrowing.

Scotland, a foreign nation, must not be represented on the Bank of England monetary committee

End Naval production on the Clyde. UK vessels arent built abroad. Re-open Portsmouth

Debt incurred between now & independence, is Scottish. Scotland & the UK sign a treaty obliging Scotland to repay its share of UK govt debt incurred upto the referendum

SNP threats of debt default should have consequences. Not least a veto on Scots membership of EU & NATO

In 2015, as Scotland is leaving the UK, Scots cannot be permitted to vote in the UK election

Scots BBC access shall end. The BBC is a UK funded service. Scotland is leaving the UK

Protect the Union Flag. We have fought & died under it.

The UK no longer includes Scotland. We owe Scotland nothing.

I would much rather such sentiments not exist, but i could well see it erupting. Divorces are seldom nice.

 

[drakensis]

The first forty-eight hours would be barely enough time to begin making the plans for how to make the plans for a separation. (Granted some thinking will have taken place).

It's certainly too short a time for Westminister and Edinburgh to agree on a structure for how to make the necessary decision.

 

[sarahz]

Agree with above post plus expect some very hard negotiating over the boundary of international waters. Salmond will want to go due east from the Tweed, Cameron follow the angle of the border bringing a fair sized chunk of the gas fields and some oil fields into English waters.
It would be interesting to see how the SNP cope with the Shetlanders wanting to go their own way! They would try very hard to stop them.

This was also thretened by the Alquonquins in Canada if Quebec left Canada after the Sovereignty-association referendum, would have take a large slice of the Province with them

 

[Ultimate Paragon]

The first forty-eight hours would be barely enough time to begin making the plans for how to make the plans for a separation. (Granted some thinking will have taken place).

It's certainly too short a time for Westminister and Edinburgh to agree on a structure for how to make the necessary decision.

Indeed. They'd need much more time.

 

[viewcode]

I just can't see anyone with real power in the EU ever seriously preferring to kick Scotland out and let it fester all its own.

You'll excuse me if feel a little teethgritting at this, but for what may be the 1000th time, I have to point out that Scotland is not a member of the EU. Scotland is a nation and a country but it is not a sovereign state and it is not a member of the EU. It would not be kicked out of the eu because it is not a member and so cannot be kicked out.

Best guess is there would have been a EU-Scotland Association Agreement (there's probably lots of Wikipedia articles about EU association agreements; please google) but it would not have been a member, at least not immediately. The rUK would place tremendous pressure on Spain,Belgium et al to let iScotland in and may buckle eventually, but please remember Franco-German objections have prevented Turkish accession for 20 years despite UK pressure. In the meantime, they'd have to put in an Association Agreement in place because they'd need to put something in fast, otherwise they'd have to consider things like border controls and (godhelpus) massive VAT fraud.

The result would look lots like the present but iScotland would not attend European Council meetings and (at least temporarily) there would be a fuck of a lot of sudden rUK-iScotland dual nationals to prevent millions of people losing their EU & UK citizenship

 

[libbrit]

You'll excuse me if feel a little teethgritting at this, but for what may be the 1000th time, I have to point out that Scotland is not a member of the EU. Scotland is a nation and a country but it is not a sovereign state and it is not a member of the EU. It would not be kicked out of the eu because it is not a member and so cannot be kicked out.

Exactly. The UK would retain the international presence of the current UK, much like Russia was the recognised successor state of the USSR. By leaving the UK, Scotland is leaving everything to do with the UK, including all bodies and organisations to which the UK belongs.

 

[viewcode]

Exactly. The UK would retain the international presence of the current UK, much like Russia was the recognised successor state of the USSR. By leaving the UK, Scotland is leaving everything to do with the UK, including all bodies and organisations to which the UK belongs.

Thank you...

 

[idonotlikeusernames]

Exactly. The UK would retain the international presence of the current UK, much like Russia was the recognised successor state of the USSR. By leaving the UK, Scotland is leaving everything to do with the UK, including all bodies and organisations to which the UK belongs.

Japan or Brazil might want the UN security council seat though and since the rUK doesn't have the resources Russia has they might stand a chance of getting it eventually.

 

[TheBrunswickian]

Holyrood would declare the Union with England at an end and legislation would begin to be drafted. Westminster would be forced to recognise the dissolution of the Union and a general election would likely have to be held in England, Wales and Northern Ireland as the House of Commons and Lords would now have members sitting that should actually be sitting in Scotland. A general election would also have to be called in Scotland to elect a new parliament. The international community would have to decide whether they recognise Scotland as independent or not (chances are most would). The constitutional status of Wales and Northern Ireland would come into question and Westminster would be pressured into giving Wales and N.Ireland more powers (like they promised Scotland). Holyrood would have to begin approving the existence of government bureaucratic departments. Scotland would submit its applications to the UN, EU and NATO. The status of Catalonia and Flanders would begin to be questioned. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would be declared null and void and would be succeeded by the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

 

[Sanderford]

It's certainly too short a time for Westminister and Edinburgh to agree on a structure for how to make the necessary decision.

Of course. I was speaking more of global reactions in the media, things like that.

 

[libbrit]

Holyrood would declare the Union with England at an end and legislation would begin to be drafted. Westminster would be forced to recognise the dissolution of the Union and a general election would likely have to be held in England, Wales and Northern Ireland as the House of Commons and Lords would now have members sitting that should actually be sitting in Scotland. A general election would also have to be called in Scotland to elect a new parliament. The international community would have to decide whether they recognise Scotland as independent or not (chances are most would). The constitutional status of Wales and Northern Ireland would come into question and Westminster would be pressured into giving Wales and N.Ireland more powers (like they promised Scotland). Holyrood would have to begin approving the existence of government bureaucratic departments. Scotland would submit its applications to the UN, EU and NATO. The status of Catalonia and Flanders would begin to be questioned. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would be declared null and void and would be succeeded by the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

This betokens your total lack of understanding as to how the UK works.

Holyrood cant declare anything about the Act of Union. A vote for independence gives Holyrood a mandate to negotiate said independence with London, thats it. It doesnt give Holyrood the ability to repeal the legislation of another paliament, which is what the Act of Union is. Until negotiations are done, Scotland remains part of the UK, and the only place that can repeal the Union, is Westminster. Until the union is repealed, Holyrood has no authoristy whatsoever to form government departments, a military or negotiate with foreign powes.

Anything else, is a UDI, and the world would not look upon that remotely favourably

 

[Viscount Stanthorpe]

Had the vote gone the other way, then I would have expected the following:

1. Cameron would have resigned & would probably be replaced by William Hague
2. The FTSE would have fallen some 5 – 10% over a 48-hour period
3. Several major companies would have announced a relocation of their main offices from Scotland to England, including Lloyds, RBS & Standard Life
4. The Shetlands would have announced a plan to hold a referendum to remain within the UK
5. The press would have gone (even more) hysterical, agitating for no currency union & no common travel area
6. The EU, probably at the behest of the UK (and Ireland & Spain & Belgium) would have gone out of its way to make it abundantly clear that, whilst Scotland would be fast-tracked into the European Free Trade Area, there would still be a period of negotiation for actual EU membership and that Scotland - as a new EU member - would have to adopt the Euro and any talk of ‘walking away from their share of the national debt’ would torpedo those negotiations.
7. Vladimir Putin would probably be the first head of state to recognise the new country
8. Salmond would start to recruit for 'the Team Scotland' negotiators and garner public support from the Better Together campaign.

And that’s probably about it, certainly for the first 48-hours or so...

 

[Derek Pullem]

Massive personal transfers of deposits from "Scottish" banks to "English" banks (note sometimes within the same holding company).

This had already begun - I had a phone call from RBS suggesting I speak to them on the 19th if it was a YES

This is a ticking time bomb for independent Scotland - unless they can guarantee (very difficult) the same protection and people believe them, "Scottish" banks will be insolvent as of 2016 and would probably cease to be leaving Scotland with no (or very few and small) indigenous banks.

The problem is that "Scottish" banks would be forced to raise capital to cover "Scottish" liabilities (mortgages etc) but all the deposits would have flown to thier "English" branches.

 

[SirCliveWolfe]

Massive personal transfers of deposits from "Scottish" banks to "English" banks (note sometimes within the same holding company).

This had already begun - I had a phone call from RBS suggesting I speak to them on the 19th if it was a YES

This is a ticking time bomb for independent Scotland - unless they can guarantee (very difficult) the same protection and people believe them, "Scottish" banks will be insolvent as of 2016 and would probably cease to be leaving Scotland with no (or very few and small) indigenous banks.

The problem is that "Scottish" banks would be forced to raise capital to cover "Scottish" liabilities (mortgages etc) but all the deposits would have flown to thier "English" branches.

This is very true, I know that the bank I work for was prepared for a Yes vote and a massive increase in deposits. Although I would think that a very quick announcement would be made that "Scottish" banks would be covered until at least independence (2016?) to try and settle things down.

TheBrunswickian: I do not think that Scotland would join NATO, a defensive alliance with the UK would basically bring all of the benefits of membership without the possibility of "foreign entanglements".

 

[Dalriadan Archangel 21]

Japan or Brazil might want the UN security council seat though and since the rUK doesn't have the resources Russia has they might stand a chance of getting it eventually.

Why would there be a free seat?

 

[lounge60]

British Flag,the old Union Jack,would be changed?

 

[idonotlikeusernames]

Why would there be a free seat?

Well maybe I let myself be led a little bit too much by sensationalist journalism on this, such as this article http://www.newrepublic.com/article/...uncil-seat-under-threat-scotland-independence

It does IMHO raise a few valid points such as "why would two middling European powers get to retain their seats on the council" when important newcomers like Brazil and India do not ?

Also with the loss of Scotland the UK does lose a lot of its resources and a bit of its power and the Sharks in the UN might just sense blood in the water.

Yes, Russia got to keep the Soviet seat but today there are a lot more rising powers and the Security Council did adjust to reality before when Taiwan lost the Chinese seat.

Although it is out of bounds for this thread as the loss of the Uk's UN Security Council seat would probably not even be mentioned in the first 48 hours but I could imagine some of the aforementioned countries attempting to start a process of UN reform that might eventually lead to this.