Russian Pacific

Had the Russian better established themselves in the Northern Pacific better, such as stronger in Alaska, and maybe in Kauai, could they maintain an island empire? More over, what would become of Japan if the Russian expanded into the Pacific in the early 19th Century? Would they be the ones to force Japan open to trade, or would they just take Hokkaido and vassalize the rest of the islands? What other islands would they take?
 
I don't think they could, no. Unlike the other empires emanating from Europe, the Russian empire's expansion phase was thousands ofi miles ahead of the "consolidation phase" which was the waves of settlers populating the new territories. Russia was pretty good at sending explorers out to claim land, build forts, sign treaties etc decades before they could properly take advantage of them but it didn't have unlimited explorers or resources, and while it had a small fleet it had very little in the way of a military basis to protect its assets, and the more assets, the more overextended their poor fleet is. Further, I would question whether they would see financial benefit in claiming the piddly little islands of the north pacific that they would need to access the south pacific, and most of all I see this course of action rapidly resulting in the British on particular moving fleets and making counter claims designed to cut off and checkmate the Russian landgrabbing. Hawai'i was a one-off and OTL the Russians showed as much by giving up on their fort fairly swiftly.
 
Then what was Russia's aim in the Russo-Japanese War? Aside from Manchuria.
It was Korea.
Also, it's possible but a bit difficult. Just because Russia is facing hard odds doesn't mean that a Tsar interested in the Pacific won't try.
 
It was Korea.
Also, it's possible but a bit difficult. Just because Russia is facing hard odds doesn't mean that a Tsar interested in the Pacific won't try.

When I partitioned Hawaii, I had the Russian-American Company in Kauai. Would that spark enough interest in the Pacific from an OTL Tsar? Sandalwood from the island was valued by the Chinese, and could make additional profits for the Company. Not sure how much that'd benefit the Tsar.

Concerning Japan: I figured that since Russia picked away at Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Central Asia, China and pretty much all of its neighbors, why would it not do the same against Japan. Aside from the fact that it took a better part of the year to get a message across Siberia.
 
...and while it had a small fleet it had very little in the way of a military basis to protect its assets, and the more assets, the more overextended their poor fleet is...

Actually, Russia had the world's third-largest and one of the most successful navies for most of its Imperial existance and never dropped out of the top 6.

The real issue is correctly identified by you later on: lack of good harbours with easy Blue-Sea access. A much bigger issue is a lack of a serious merchant marine, but it was far from alone in that respect. The two combined produced a strange situation of the Russians having a navy that constantly alternated between superb and dilapidated, and no real ongoing mission to justify its existance.
 
Actually, Russia had the world's third-largest and one of the most successful navies for most of its Imperial existance and never dropped out of the top 6.

The real issue is correctly identified by you later on: lack of good harbours with easy Blue-Sea access. A much bigger issue is a lack of a serious merchant marine, but it was far from alone in that respect. The two combined produced a strange situation of the Russians having a navy that constantly alternated between superb and dilapidated, and no real ongoing mission to justify its existance.

Wouldn't overseas colonies give it a little bit of a mission? As for harbors, surely there has to be a decent one somewhere on their Pacific Coast. How about taking the area where Vladivostok was built a couple of decades earlier than OTL?
 
Actually, Russia had the world's third-largest and one of the most successful navies for most of its Imperial existance and never dropped out of the top 6.

Allow me to amend to what I should have said - and meant to say, but put badly. It had a small fleet in the Pacific. With the best will in the world, it was never going to sail it's Black Sea or Baltic Fleets to defend island Pacific colonies...
 
Wouldn't overseas colonies give it a little bit of a mission? As for harbors, surely there has to be a decent one somewhere on their Pacific Coast. How about taking the area where Vladivostok was built a couple of decades earlier than OTL?

Vladivostok was only usable during the summer months. Gaining a warm-water port was one of their goals in the Russo-Japanese War.
 
Vladivostok was only usable during the summer months. Gaining a warm-water port was one of their goals in the Russo-Japanese War.

It's better than nothing. A good way to get around the winter problem is not to be in port during the winter.

What about a naval base in Japan, say if the Russians were the ones who decided to force open their doors. I would suggest Sapporo, except it wasn't even there around 1850. Too bad, since I was thinking the Russians were going to take Hokkaido. Wasn't part of Sapporo's reason for existing to secure the island before the Russians moved in? Maybe even Hakodate could serve as a warm-water port on the Pacific. Kind of hard on communications in winter though.
 
Vladivostok was only usable during the summer months. Gaining a warm-water port was one of their goals in the Russo-Japanese War.

Russian use of Port Arthur was probably the closest it got to an all year port in the Far East. I think you would have to consider continued Russian interest in the Oregon Territory and California, but even then they are very far from European Russia.
 
Russian use of Port Arthur was probably the closest it got to an all year port in the Far East. I think you would have to consider continued Russian interest in the Oregon Territory and California, but even then they are very far from European Russia.
But Russian California and Oregon will most likely result in Ruso-Mexican war. right?
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Concerning Japan: I figured that since Russia picked away at Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Central Asia, China and pretty much all of its neighbors, why would it not do the same against Japan. Aside from the fact that it took a better part of the year to get a message across Siberia.

Well, in a sense they did with the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin, which the Japanese considered theirs just as much as the Russians did.

To address some other points:-

The Russian American Company would have established its interests in California at the time when it was a) Spanish and b) very sparsely settled, so it wopuld be the Spanish they would be dealing with, not the Mexicans

The bloke who was the power house of the Company died whilst on his way back (IIRC) from visiting the Tsar to get additional backing, and his death basically demised the company's long-term future. Had he lived...

Whilst the distances involved are huge, that in itself is not an unsolvable problem, since they were expected to be huge and people dealt with them.

Russia DOES have ports in the Far East, developing Petropavlosk in Kamchatka, and also smaller ones like Ayan in the Sea of Okhotsk. Obviously these freeze in Winter, but are usable at other times.

A lot of European navies developed the practice of keeping squadrons of their ships in third-party ports - see Chemulpo in Korea in 1904 when the Variag and Korietz were sunk, and look who else is in the harbour; Shanghai was also another popular base. The Italian and Austrian Pacific squadrons were ENTIRELY based in third-party ports.

Russia was quite happy to sail its fleet where-ever it was NEEDED - look at Seniavin in the Napoleonic Wars sailing the Baltic fleet into the Med and back again. The question is one of NEED, and of that need eclipsing other needs.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Russia was quite happy to sail its fleet where-ever it was NEEDED - look at Seniavin in the Napoleonic Wars sailing the Baltic fleet into the Med and back again. The question is one of NEED, and of that need eclipsing other needs.

Sending your Baltic Fleet to the Med because the Black Sea Fleet is unable to traverse the Bosphorus is totally different from sending it 10x further to the Pacific. For a start, a Europe-based fleet sailing to the Pacific would turn up too late to even accomplish anything.
 
Sending your Baltic Fleet to the Med because the Black Sea Fleet is unable to traverse the Bosphorus is totally different from sending it 10x further to the Pacific. For a start, a Europe-based fleet sailing to the Pacific would turn up too late to even accomplish anything.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Russians send their fleet halfway around the world in 1904, only to have it destroyed the next year?
 
They sent their Baltic fleet down the coast of Africa, 'round Cape of Good Hope, then all the way up the Pacific Rim, only to meet their demise at the Tsushima Straits in a decisive battle often referred to as the "Modern Trafalgar". That's how bad it was for the Russians.
 
But Russian California and Oregon will most likely result in Ruso-Mexican war. right?

Not necessarily - actually not at all. Mexico has few forces in the area. California was isolated from Mexico proper by terrain and trade and people moved predominately by sea and even there Mexico had few forces. Mexico inherited its claims to the Pacific Northwest from Spain but had no real way to keep it.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Sending your Baltic Fleet to the Med because the Black Sea Fleet is unable to traverse the Bosphorus is totally different from sending it 10x further to the Pacific. For a start, a Europe-based fleet sailing to the Pacific would turn up too late to even accomplish anything.

The Russians always kept some sailing ships on station in the Far East, and they had quite a famed scientific expedition in the Southern Pacific. They would certainly be capable of basing a stronger squadron in those wars if they saw the need. I get your point about not sending it out all in one go in response to an emergency, but I don't think the original poster had that in mind.

Regarding the steam fleet, the Russians used the Baltic fleet to build up their Pacific Squadron and this worked perfectly well. The question of Rozhestvensky is a red herring because that was the reserve fleet plus all the new ships all thrown together and sent on a voyage in wartime during which they could not base out of neutral ports.

If Russia WANTS to it can permanently base ships of the line out of Petropavlosk.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The real problem is one of supply; prior to the construction of the Trans-Siberian all supply has to come by sea or from local resources. The combination of the two isn't going to be enough to sustain an empire-building effort literally half a world away.

What is required is:

1) A larger population base. A few hundred explorers, traders, and hunters is not going to do it; we need tens of thousands of people.

2) A large food producing area. The Hawaiian Islands are too small, really, to support a much larger population than they already have, and Siberia and Alaska are too far north to have a sufficiently long growing season.

3) Reliable communication with European Russia. If this is lacking the Russian Pacific possessions will be effectively isolated. Even if they do develop into an empire that empire will only nominally be part of the Russian Empire; it might well become independent if its interests diverge sufficiently from Russia's.
 
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