Renovation: An Eastern Roman Timeline

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Deleted member 67076

This thread is to serve as the story only version for the timeline. The discussion thread is here.

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Renovation

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“One of the most curious quirks of history is what the late Medieval Roman Empire refers to as ‘The Renovation’; this period of massive social, political and economic change that starts a new chapter in the empire. A fresh start if you will, where the slow, humiliating decline of the past 140 or so years is halted and the slate is wiped clean! This newer, stronger, healthier empire emerges from this period of restructuring better than it has been in ages. Its like a house getting refurbished -hence the name- and, like that refurbished house, it weathers the storms and the earthquakes and all other problems much better than it otherwise would have, so that the people residing in that house can live in peace.”

The 14th century was not kind a kind one to the Roman Empire. Following the aftermath of the infamous Fourth Crusade, the remnants of Rome become a shadow of their once glorious self. They are fractured, stagnant and handicapped by a myriad of issues that impede renewal. Despite numerous attempts on setting the empire on the road to recovery, to keep the empire afloat, it all appears in vain. This new era is one of a slow, painful and seemingly irreversible decline.

On all sides, the empire is under siege. To the east, Turkish incursions renew their offense clawing apart at Byzantium’s important Asian provinces, the first in a century since the mighty Komnenoi emperors had pushed them back, stalling the seemingly inevitable advance. Multitudes of tribes have poured in and begun carving out their own small fiefdoms. Most worrying are the nascent Ottoman Beylik, under the rule of the ambitious and frighteningly competent Orhan. In the North, the rising power of Serbia and the Second Bulgarian Empire threaten the European holdings. And to the west are the Latin states. They exploit rather than aid. They fracture instead of unify. They harm when they should heal. Caught between all sides and weakened by generations of war, Rome is in a precarious place. But the worst comes from within the empire.

Following the ascension of the Palaiologoi dynasty the balance of power has drastically swung in favor of the aristocracy. While this is not a new thing; (the aristocratic favoritism is something deeply Roman, going back to the days of the ancient republic) since the Komnenoi era this trend has dramatically accelerated. The meritocracy of the previous Macedonian dynasty has been eroded with time, as has their care for the lower classes; the smallholders and the urban mob. This trend further continues with the new dynasty, perhaps continuing to its logical extreme. It is this favoritism that has in part hastened the decay of the empire, as the aristocracy has been given freer rein to expand their power. The aristocracy, rich and bloated at the expense of the state and the poor, further bleed the empire dry. The government, struggling to reform is unable to fix the underlying problems of the state nor alleviate the problems faced by the peasants. Impoverishment and misrule have become depressingly common.

In reaction, there is anger and resentment. Justifiably so. The people toil and yet there is no respite. No end to the staggering amount of problems that plague their homeland. It is fertile ground for those who wish to gain support for change… or for those seeking power. Some wish for reform, and others revolution. Either one has their merits in the people’s eyes. As the years pass and the situation grows ever more bleak, the more sway these advocates for change have… and the more the people wish to fight. To strike back at their tormentors.

In 1341, the straw that breaks the camel’s back came with the death of emperor Andronikos, third of that name. In the ensuing power struggle there emerged two power blocs gunning for control: The camp of John Kantakouzenos, who fought to continue the Ancien Regime of aristocratic rule and traditionalism that the state has come to known, and the camp of Alexios Apokaukos, led by those who had wished for change to come to Rhomania. And so bloody civil war had once again broken out, further sapping what precious few resources remain.

Currently, the year is 1341. The empire stands broken, battered and bloody. But it is far from beaten.

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“… [The Restoration is] A period where reality kinda looks stranger than fiction, I mean, the story plays out like a cliche ridden fantasy when you read it: It starts off with the land in chaos. The bloated nobility has grown rich and decadent, and their abuse of the people they’re supposed to have managed has weakened the empire at all corners and just caused all sorts of problems. Meanwhile, the common people are angry, they are mistreated, they are overtaxed, invaded, their lands are taken from them… all sorts of humiliations. Eventually they have enough of it. They pray for a hero to come to them and deliver them from their problems and inflict righteous justice on the upper classes that mistreated them… sure enough, they get one! In 1341, this confident, forward looking, virtuous man comes on stage and he takes charge. and challenges the nobility for rule of the empire. He leads this... crusade against their decadence with the people rising up and joining him, where they proceed to crush and expel their abusers and usher in a time of peace and prosperity. At the same time, the hero stays, overseeing that his efforts are not in vain, with the future emperor raised under the guidance of their hero to make sure the future is in good hands, and after the hero dies, this new emperor takes over and leads his people into a Golden Age…. That’s the regular story. The truth is, of course, a hell of a lot more darker and murky.”

To track the roots of the Renovation, one must go back to the era directly preceding it: the final years and death of the emperor Andronicus III and the culmination of a long dynastic rule. We must analyze the state of affairs, the trends and the geopolitics in and surrounding the Roman Empire during his era that led to its nadir of power. As such, let us briefly return to two different time periods. The year of our Lord 1204, at the dreaded Fourth Crusade, and directly following the imperial restoration at the reconquest of Constantinople from the Latin Empire in 1261.

Now, when the Latin Empire captured the great city of Constantinople, the Imperial court relocated to the lakeside city of Nicaea in Asia Minor with the hopes of eventually retaking the capital when the time was right. Initially command was held by Theodore Lascaris whose reforms to accommodate the new position of the empire alienated many of nobles who had grown accustomed to the Komnenoi policies favoring those of high rank and social stature. However, his victory against the empire’s enemies and restoration of imperial territorial integrity allowed him to lead without much difficulty at home. But when he died he left the empire in a regency under his son John. This in turn created a vacuum of power which allowed the conservative aristocrats to plan and make a bid for power. Rallying around Michael Palaeologus, a confident, charismatic man who was head of one of the largest noble clans, this aristocratic faction conspired against the young emperor and launched a coup. Installing himself as John IV’s Regent and Co-Emperor, young John IV was soon deposed by his supposedly junior-emperor, who then crowned himself as Michael VIII. This is where the trouble begins.

Now Michael did rule successfully. Constantinople was liberated in 1261, the Empire was re-established in Greece proper (with a few exceptions), all the pressing enemies were defeated and it once more became a (borderline) great power. And yet, with his grab for power Michael VII set the stage for a conservative, aristocratic minded dynasty with increasingly limited resources. Despite energetic campaigning, the Byzantine state was simply too exhausted and too cash-strapped to fully take advantage of the opportunities granted to them. Additionally, they were undermined in commerce (a potentially large source of income to supplement taxes on land) by the Italian city states. The policy of “Europe first” had opened the empire to attacks by Charles I of Sicily (who dealt the empire a heavy blow) and renewed raids by the Turkish statelets of the east. With hindsight we can see the faults in this policy but few at the time could have predicted that. Constantinople was of course the pride and joy of the empire and retaking territory from the weak and divided Latin Barons who ruled over the unhappy masses of Greeks must have seemed like the easier and wiser thing to do than waste resources to retake land in Anatolia, where the previous dynasty had tried but failed to secure the former heartlands despite almost a century of effort.

Now then let’s fast forward several decades- its been almost a full century since the reconquest of Constantinople: The Empire has steadily been eroded on all fronts, too weak to retake its lost lands and too stubborn and unable to find effective means of solving their problems. Problems that were dealt with the method and mindset that their forbearers used- with mixed to limited results. At the same time the aristocratic favoritism that has begun under the Komenoi has continued unopposed, granting new privileges to an already bloated nobility. This erosion of the tax base, weakening of the central government, loss of land, money and prestige has left an incredibly dissatisfied and enraged outlook on the masses while the elite increased their wealth, power and influence in the empire to levels that had not been seen since the Principate. The cause of this shift was in response to the loss of territory; the tax burden had to be raised in order to maintain the same level of effectiveness as before yet from a much smaller pool of tax payers. But the current government, in coordination and domination by rural elites created many an exemption for the nobility to pay taxes. Thus, the burden was placed onto the poor.

To make it worse, the stubborn and conservative government refuse to adapt to potential new solutions, most prominently the refusal to invest in commerce and mercantile matters as a way to generate wealth like that of the great Merchant Republics. Commerce was seen as ‘un-Roman’ and ‘beneath’ the elite who preferred to place their investments into great landholding estates. (It's also this factor that made the noble dominated state less receptive to defending their territories; one can always move to another estate if they have more land after all, but the poor who have everything to lose if that small plot is taken from them will fight to the death) These two factions grew increasingly radicalized and ideologically inflexible as time went by from either the lack of meaningful change or the growing ungratefulness of restless masses (take your pick), eventually believing that only force would get them what they wanted.

Thus the stage was set for a massive conflict of interests and worldviews. All that would need to spark this war was a power vacuum where the reformists and lower classes could finally make their respective bids for power. In 1341, with the death of Andronicus III the reformists got their wish.

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As the stage was being set for war, we see in this period the rise of the brilliant man who would orchestrate one of the most drastic reformations of the imperial state: The, competent, ambitious and forward thinking Alexios Apokaukos. A man of humble birth, who through combination of ambition, skill and knowing the right people rose to the positions of Chamberlain (Parakoimomenos)[1], Mesazon [2], and shortly before the death of Andronicus, Grand Admiral of the Byzantine Navy (Megas Doux), all while amassing great wealth. (Whether he got that money from successful business deals or plundering the treasury is up for debate; either way you shouldn’t care)

Alexios, due to his origins as a non-aristocrat held drastically different views than that of the ruling elite, believing that the path to reclaim greatness lay in not copying the efforts of older generations, but moving towards the future in a completely new direction. Rather than focusing on military might, he believed the empire should use soft power. Instead of wealth through great landed estates, Apokaukos preferred commercial ventures. He was in heart, a reformist and made no effort to hide his view the empire should be more in line with that of city states of Venice and Genoa. And through the visible success of Italian merchants being literally everywhere in the former lands of the Byzantine empire, he made a very convincing case. As a firm pro western advocate, Apokaukos did all he could to have the empire start mimicking the policies of the Italian city states. He was a huge promoter of the navy, at one point paying out of his pocket over 100,000 hyperpyra to repair and re-equip the fleet, which had now shrunk to a paltry sum of less than 30 ships, most of them reclassified transport ships.

Now, as time went on and his position in the imperial government grew, he and like minded reformists (driven from the ranks of the bureaucrats and non nobles for the most part) worked to gain influence with the emperor and by extension, imperial policies. He succeeded, (partially) eventually becoming part of the regime's inner circle and gaining allies in the Patriarch John and the Empress, Anne of Savoy. Unfortunately this came at the cost of his relationship with his former mentor and friend, the equally brilliant John Kantakouzenos.

With Andronikos’ death, there began a power struggle for control over the regency of his heir, John. We see two main blocs form, one initially led by Patriarch John XIV (although quickly sidelined by the younger and more ambitious Apokaukos), and the other led by another brilliant statesman, John Kantakouzenos.

Kantakouzenos, in contrast to Apokaukos was the more stereotypical old money. Coming from a long line of government officials, he strove to become someone important in his life. Raised in wealth and privilege, the man became connected with the intricacies of the court from a young age and was distantly related to the ruling house through his mother. Like his father (the former governor of the Morea) before him, he joined the government bureaucracy, eventually became a close friend of Andronicus III, and helping to orchestrate the latter’s rise to the throne against his grandfather and predecessor, Andronicus II. An excellent diplomat, he secured an alliance with the Aydinid Beylik based in Smyrna and was a personal friend with its leader Umar, whom the latter referred to as “My Brother” (a testament of the close friendship the two enjoyed.) Umar frequently aided the Byzantines in many an endeavor, often bailing them out from raids and invasions from their many neighbors. Kantakouzenos was very popular back home, both among the nobility and the common man, but his position as a noble often alienated him from lower class bureaucrats unlike Apokaukos. Speaking of Apokaukos, John Kantakouzenos was indeed at one point the close friend and mentor of his future belligerent, aiding the former in his rise to power through good use of patronage and introducing the younger statesmen to powerful friends shortly after discovering the talented worker.

Unfortunately, Kantakouzenos was extensively pressured by the nobility to disassociate himself from his protege. The nobility resented the commoner’s humble origins and his quick rise in the imperial state apparatus, and wanted no part of his schemes. Thus they shunned John, forcing him to cut off his patronage little by little to Apokaukos, a blatant and aggressive move [3]. This understandably caused something a rift between the two which only grew as time went on.

[1] Chamberlain in the late Byzantine Empire occupied a position similar to a minister in the modern day UK government.

[2] Literally “Intermediary”. Essentially, Mesazon referred to one of the chief aids of the Emperor, working as both a secretary and a government minister.’

[3] I need to point out just how important patronage was to the Byzantine Empire at this time. With the establishment of a government run by a rather closed off group such as the nobility, patronage served as a way to introduce new people into the system. Who you knew was much more important that what you know. Good patrons and client system would ensure that you would gain access to high paying jobs, good land, business deals, etc. Thus it was a huge honor to be taken in by an aristocrat and shown the high society. Conversely, it was a very big insult to stop that patronage and recommendation, as it showed that the patron has lost all faith in the client.
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“Our Lord once said said in the Gospel of Matthew, Chapter 7, Verse 24, the wise man built his house upon the rock. That this rock was the foundation of his house. That the foundation was pivotal in allowing it to endure the challenges it must face. My friends, Rome is an old house. A old, durable house with the most perfect foundation. A foundation that has allowed us for over 1,000 years to have stood strong, withstanding every tribulation, every storm, every tremor that would dare threaten our house! ...But, my fellow Romans, like every old house there comes a time where it needs renovation.”

-Excerpt of a speech by Patriarch John XIV of Constantinople (1343)

June 1341: The Emperor is dead. Long live the Emperor.

With Andronikos’ death begins the ascension of his son as John V Palaiologos. The crowing is a relatively simple affair and John is crowned without much hassle. There’s only one problem: The Emperor is a 9 year old boy. The question of who is to be his regent is asked by the regime’s inner circle. Multiple arguments are given for who deserves the coveted position. One is for Kantakouzenos. John Kantakouzenos was the emperor’s best friend and ally for decades. He is a brilliant and educated man with experience and a successful career as a statesman. The alliance with the Aydinids and the recent success in Epirus was his doing. Logically he should raise the child. Yet custom dictated the Empress was to head the regency. A boy should be with his mother no? Especially with her being such a prestigious woman from the Savoyard family.

In any case, almost immediately after her husband’s death Anna stakes her claim. She is backed by the Patriarch, who also points out a document from 1334 that states the care of John was to be dictated by a member of the imperial family. Being the boy’s mother and the closest living relative, she makes the argument that no one is better suited than her. John and his supporters disagree. They are many and they are influential. The opposing side claims she is a foreigner, unfit to teach the boy to be a proper Roman and that her influence may be corrosive. That she lacks experience in foreign policy and the domestic situation of the empire. But the family refuses to budge. Arguments brew in response. The ordeal soon becomes public knowledge. Displays of loyalty to the old emperor intensify. Appeal to his memory on both sides. Which one was closer to Andronikos? The Wife or the Friend?

The tension grows as the days pass. Appeals turn into altercations. Fights in the street break out over supporters. A noble here is beaten by bureaucrats, a bureaucrat there is harassed by army officers there. Eventually a demonstration of the army is called in. The Polarization increases, yet nothing is resolved, and so John Kantakouzenos begins to pursue a new strategy. He leaves to rally support from both the international scene and the army in hopes this can pressure the opposing side into accepting his claim. He does not want war, but he knows he must show force.

In all this Apokaukos keeps quiet. He has secretly switched sides; no one but the Patriarch knows this as of yet. The reason being is the growing rift between the two has become unbearable. Once again denied a new position of power by John Kantakouzenos, and the increasing ways Kantakouzenos goes out to avoid his protege have done a number on their friendship. The realization that he will not be able to dictate policy and start his reforms under the regency of his old mentor is too much. Whether for his own personal ambition or for his country’s well being is the debate of centuries for historians to follow, but it is certain that Alexious harbored extreme dissatisfaction with John and his potential policies.

As John flees to the Macedonian countryside to rally his supporters, he manages to gain the favor of the Aydinid Beylik and the Latin Barons in Thessaly, Achaea and Athens. He attempts to also gain the recognition of Serbia and Bulgaria, but both sides were currently embroiled in war against the Hungarians to provide any meaningful support. [1] However, the army, drawn mostly from the ranks of the nobility and large landowners, enthusiastically supports him. With such prominent forces, John issues a proclamation demanding entrance to the city or face the wrath of the combined forces of his support. Despite the seemingly large numbers of support, it is a bluff- and Alexios knows it. The Latin Barons don’t have enough men to spare to create an army that can capture the city and Alexios, as the chief admiral of the navy commands the fleet's loyalty. Provided the Aydinids don't grant an alternative fleet, Constantinople remains impregnable. Thus he feels it is the perfect time to make his play. A message is dispatched to the Macedonian camp of Kantakouzenos’ army, denying his entrance into the capitol. John’s most overt supporters in the city are quietly reassigned, killed or exiled and the imperial bureaucracy proclaims the emperor’s mother as his regent with the emperor “promoting” Apokaukos to John’s old position. John himself is barred from entry and his army is told to disband.

Word quickly reaches Kantakouzenos that he is no longer allowed in the city, that Anna of Savoy has been proclaimed regent and that he has been replaced by his apprentice. Infuriated by this response, and realizing that Alexios has betrayed him, John proclaims himself co-emperor and with the army’s support begin’s a march to the city, hoping that with a show of force he can pressure the Regency forces to submit. His declaration is taken as a pretender to the throne, and war is formally declared. Lines are drawn, supporters rally to their sides and the empire holds its breath as the conflict begins.

Quickly, most of the powerful and large landowners (collectively known as the dynatoi) throw their lot with Kantakouzenos, seeing in him as ‘their own’ fighting to protect their interests against the ‘upstart’, Alexios Apokaukos, while the cities back the regency. This has the curious effect in which many of the ordinary peasants begin to rally around the regency. Perhaps it is the notion of “a Good emperor” who will deliver them from their toils? Perhaps because “One of them” is finally at the top? Maybe because its a chance to strike against their abusers? Perhaps a mixture of all. Whatever the reason, Alexius’ popularity grows in response- something he quickly takes note. War has begun and the fate of the empire rest of his hands.

[1] This event here is our POD. Without Serbian support, Kantakouzenos’ position is drastically weakened. In addition, it is worth noting that John struck a deal with the barons, integrating their lands under the Byzantine state in exchange for respecting their lands and rights. A testament to his diplomatic prowess that he would have been able to restore most of Greece to Byzantine control with a stroke of a pen in a year when the state had been trying the same for almost 200 years
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In most circumstances, having the rich and powerful of a society against you is a death sentence. For one Alexios Apokaukos, its an opportunity to eliminate your opposition in one go and cement control. For while John could pull a good bluff, Alexios knew how to counter that with the use of an excellent propaganda campaign. Upon hearing the news that many nobles publically announced their support for John, Apokaukos’ first decision was simply to officially confiscate the oppositions’ assets (estates, properties, businesses, etc), and any wealth they left in the capital and the surrounding countryside that had been under Regency control. Following that, he made the fortunes, whatever they may be, of whatever opposition that remained outside his control (most of Macedonia and Greece) public knowledge, with heralds being paid to focus on spreading this news in the poorest areas under regency control. [2] (As a highly influential player in the bureaucracy, the man had access to the records of nearly every landowner. Where the land was, how much it was worth, and who owned what.)Following that, he declared each and every one of them an enemy of the state and declare their lands all confiscated and that the lands would be given to the loyal people of the empire, with a preference to the loyal soldiers of the regency.

The result was exactly as he expected. The poor, destitute from the abuses of the aristocracy flocked to his side in droves, swelling the army to numbers that would have been unfathomable a few years ago. Within a few weeks, Alexios gained an army. An angry, bloated, undisciplined, untrained, and under equipped army, but an army nonetheless.

This spread of knowledge continued outside the countryside. Both by herald and word of mouth, the imperial decrees that told the landowners were free game spread far and wide. The Regency forced had hoped to fan the flames of rebellion however way they could. Thus they began to up their message, painting the aristocracy as abusive, greedy, out of touch and disloyal denizens who would seek to take away the one true emperor who was willing and able to aid his subjects. This was followed by Alexios pressuring Patriarch John into excommunicating the Regency’s opponents and using the church as a tool of mobilization. The likening to the aristocracy to hated figures such as Judas, for example, was common. All of this worked… better than it should have.

What began as a method to bolster their numbers and demoralize their opponent's base soon became a full fledged revolution. Anti Aristocratic revolts popped up left and right in the coming years. Mobs of peasants and urban workers demanding change attacked landed estates, seizing their land dividing it among themselves. Extreme polarization of the population occurred on an unprecedented scale. Either one was with us or with them. ‘Anti-Kantakouzenism’ became the rallying cry of many, and anyone who was accused of it would face their wrath. They took to the streets, demanding change. And if they cannot be given it… they took it.

Alexios had hoped to direct the rage and repression of the urban masses to support his position by providing a cheap source of soldiers. Instead he ignited a revolution. [3]

[1] All of this is OTL.
[2] Alright I want to clear this up right now. When the term ‘Revolution’ is used, it's best for you the reader not to think “Russian Revolution”. Better you think “German Peasants revolt of 1524”. There are going to be similarities with both but please do not think this is just having Socialism in the 1300s. I use revolution because purple prose is fun.
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However, Rome’s unmolested metamorphosis could only be allowed thanks to events that prevented the intervention of its neighbors. Thus, while not the catalyst of this events, a good deal of responsibility for the events that unfolded following the death of Andronikos were the actions of the then king of Hungary, Charles. Therefore, let us turn the clock back a few years to 1336. Hungary (or more accurately its king Charles) was at the time embroiled in war with its neighbors and vassals. Yet again.

At the time the Hungarians were at war with the Serbians to the south due to the latter’s clash with the Banate of Bosnia, a Hungarian satellite state. During the year, Charles decided to invade Serbia to aid his Bosnian vassal/ally. Initially successful in invading the Serbian state, his advanced crawled to a halt as the terrain grew more and more rugged the further south he went, allowing the Serbs to reorganize and pull off a successful guerilla defense. With the Serbs striking at supply lines, launching ambushes and grinding down the morale, the Hungarians were in a tight spot. Growing ever more bolder, the Serbs began to launch raids at high profile targets, attempting to kill captains, nobles and even King Charles himself at one point. During that fateful attempt, the king was unfortunately struck by an arrow. Charles was forced into a hasty retreat back north where the bulk of his forces resided. Despite the best treatment of the day, the close call forced Charles died of infection several days afterword. [1] When the news reached the capital, turmoil reigned.

Hungary had been left in the hands of his ten year old son Louis. A regency council was cobbled together, but the damage had already been done. Serbia has taken the incentive and pushed onwards into Bosnia with the attempt of taking the disputed region of Hum. Capturing town after town, the Serbs progressed with little initial difficulty, forcing peace with the Bosnians by the spring of 1337. Hum would be ceded to Serbia and the Serbian friendly Vladislav Nikolic, lord of Popovo Polje was put to rule the Banate of Bosnia. But that’s not it, in the midst of Hungary’s chaos, one Mladen Subic of Croatia rebels and seizes the Banate of Croatia for himself to restore his family’s power. Despite claiming loyalty to the Hungarian king, the actual Hungarian influence of the sub-kingdom was removed, leaving Croatia de facto independent for the time being. And to add to the list of troubles, Venice jumps in attacking and capturing segments of Dalmatia.

Back on the domestic front, the various nobles who had been chafing under Charles’ centralization of the state rise up once more. Although drastically diminished in power, they hope that the disorganization of home would aid them in their endeavor. At the same time, they seek a pretender to give legitimacy for their claim. John of Luxemburg, the current king of Bohemia with ties to the Hungarian throne fits that criteria nicely. With a bit of convincing, he agrees to challenge Louis. Bohemia promptly invades opening yet another front.

WIth all this on his plate, young Louis had his work cut out for him. In the ensuing remainder of the decade Hungary’s massive army (the majority of which loyal to the establishment) worked to quash revolts, enforce vassalage, repel invaders and keep the peace as much as it could, with mixed results. The ensuing civil war, seen as the most pressing issue by the king’s mother and de facto ruler, was ended relatively quickly after 3 years of fighting thanks to the results of the previous rounds of reforms. Said reforms did wonders in ensuring the royal family would always have an advantage in resources over the nobility in terms of land, money and manpower in addition to dramatically weakening the people’s loyalty to any baron via the former’s honor system.

The Magyar kingdom would eventually overcome it obstacles and restore order in the homefront by 1342 followed by pushing out the Bohemians and making a favorable peace but exhaustion and near bankruptcy had set in before it could do anything else. The government knew it could not afford another war in Wallachia, let alone with Serbia and Venice so it conceded defeat. Hum was recognized as Serbian territory and various ports and islands on the Dalmatian coast were tentatively recognized as Venetian territory followed by a truce being signed by all parties. Hungary had whethered the storm, despite leaving the war weaker than at its start. It would be time for the wounds to heal, but for now the kingdom had earned its rest.

[1] This is our POD. IOTL Charles was wounded by an arrow but survived. Here, he does not, throwing Hungary into chaos and prompting Stefan Dusan to focus his energies north into Bosnia. This has repercussions down the road that prevent Dusan from interfering with in the upcoming Roman Civil War.

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“Alexios has unleashed a lion; let us see if he can tame it.”- Reportedly attributed to John Kantakouzenos upon being captured and tried in Constantinople, 1343.

Knowing his gamble had failed, John attempted to salvage the situation using one other trick up his sleeve: Diplomacy. Stuck in Macedonia, he decided to appeal to the Serbian king Stefan Dusan for aid, promising in return land in Macedonia. This was a sound idea. Serbian forces were talented and well disciplined and could grant him the numbers needed to crush the rabble that rebelled against his authority. Unfortunately for him however the Serbs were busy dealing with keeping peace in the recently annexed Hum and attempting to put on a strong front against the Banate of Croatia, of which relations had briefly deteriorated with and the threat of war loomed. Thus Dusan politely declined despite John’s tempting offer.

After that failure, he attempted to appeal to Bulgaria with a similar offer, only to learn the Ivan Alexander had already established relations with the Regency and recognized them as the true Roman government. Thus, he went south and managed to obtain the support of the Latin Barons, gaining an extra 1,000 or so men to aid his campaign. John had also offered the prospect of securing a diplomatic annexation, in which the Latin Barons of Achaea (who had been suffering defeats from the Catalonian controlled Duchy of Athens) agreeing to submit to the Romans as vassals in exchange for a future assault on Athens some time in the future. [1] One final message was sent out to the emir of Aydin, the old friend of John in hopes that he may intervene on John’s end.

With that in mind, the campaign began in earnest in mid to late 1341. Both sides marched towards their opponents, as they were for practically directly opposite from each power base thanks to the reduced state of the empire (essentially reduced to a roughly straight band from Macedonia to Constantinople; not counting the southern portion of the Morea and a small bit of Thessaly). Alexius and his forces moving towards Macedonia where the great estates and the main recruiting ground of Byzantine soldiers lay, and John making his way towards the what has traditionally been a city filled with strong nobility, Thessalonica. Intent on capturing the great city, John makes haste. With his army of roughly 4,000 infantry units backed up by 2,000 cavalry, John and his men start besieging the city in autumn and never letting go, the Pretenders manage to put a good siege. Unfortunately for the attackers, they never manage to crack the walls. On the other hand, Kantakozenos' troops did effectively cut off land access in and out of the city. This is nullified to a degree as the Byzantine navy does its best to supply Thessalonica and their supporters within the city.

Thessalonica was important to both sides for many a reason, but especially to Kantakouzenos and his men. It was, following the Imperial restoration in 1261 increasingly filled and dominated by provincial aristocracy, -making it a potentially loyal city-, but more importantly was the second largest city in the empire at the time. It’s population rivaled Constantinople, overflowing with 50,000 residents.[2] It was (despite Italian domination) an important center of trade and had a massive shipyard that could potentially be put to use in building a navy to counter Alexios. (Where John will get the money to do so God only knows, but hey its an option!) along with still being relatively wealthy in comparison to most of the empire. Thus it was critical for both sides to secure. And while the siege of the Pretender began, the Regency forces had used the navy to supply the city for now. Unfortunately this did not last, as the tiny Roman Navy was recalled to protect imperial territory from Aydinid raids in the Aegean, leaving Thessalonica with at most a token garrison. The City was- while officially part of the Regency camp- effectively left alone to deal with its problems.

At the same time, when the navy had entered the city, it brings with it Alexios’ anti-noble propaganda, leading to the establishment of the Zealots of Thessalonica as the major power in the city. Despite Alexius installing his own son John as governor, John only had nominal power and in fact had to share with the city council and the Zealot's leaders. He was given the title of Archon by the city’s residents and made a member of their council to resolve disputes and dictate policy. But any thoughts of absolute control were brutally and swiftly dashed. Meanwhile, the Zealots, fired up by the “Kantakouzenosism” rhetoric, massacre the city’s nobility, before taking their wealth and setting up what was effectively a de facto independent city-state due to lack of Imperial power projection. With the Zealots under control of their own statelet, their rhetoric would be given a testing ground to put into practice…[3]

Following the debacle at Thessalonica, the Civil War further turned into the favor of the Regency forces as the year went on. By June, Regency forces had taken most of Western Macedonia, and by October they had managed to end the siege of Thessalonica and were launching raids into Epirus and Thessaly. Kantakouzenos’ forces, outnumbered and exhausted, were finally broken in outside the ruins of the ancient town of Pella in March of 1343, removing any substantial resistance to Apokaukos’ makeshift army. Sporadic fighting continued up until the end of the year, but all major fighting had ended by the Midsummer. John Kantakouzenos himself was captured at Pella and sent back to Constantinople, where he was tried and summarily executed in the following year.

Why did Alexius’ army, who by all accounts were mostly peasant militia bolstered by the occasional mercenary unit and defectors from the old regime able to crush the Byzantine army, a far more disciplined and well equipped force? There are several reasons for this. The first was numerical disparity. Alexios used his primitive propaganda machine to recruit from the lowest of society, those eager for any chance to improve their standing. Thanks to the general state of impoverishment of his empire, gave him access to a ready pool of soldiers eager to gain land and wealth for them and their families. This was by the time period a rare chance to quickly improve their standing in life and society and many were eager to take it. Thanks to this willing pool of soldiers, the Regency forces were able to absorb losses far, far better than their opponents, who were a relatively small force of less than 10,000 men. Regency forces were able to regularly match, and later on, surpass their enemies in number. As well, this numerical disparity and ability to tank losses let the regency forces strike hard and fast, barely giving the rebels a chance to rest.

The second was psychology. The army of the regency forces was one noted for its zeal and fanaticism, where the thought of obtaining a slice of the wealth of their enemies appealed to poorest of society and made them eager fighters. Whatever discipline their enemies might have had was matched in its effectiveness by the fanaticism of their opponents. It was as they say, a cornered animal is the most dangerous. It also enjoyed a large amount of support in the countryside, thanks to breaking up many a latifundia, killing hated nobles and other wealthy citizens and looting their enemies lands and distributing it to the people. On the other hand, as the war dragged on and news of defeat and the prospect of their estates being ransacked and taken from then, Kantakouzenos’ army struggled to stay focused to their goal. By the second year of fighting, dissertations were a growing problem. Noble officers feared more for their property than the cause they were fighting for, and many made a deal with the new regime, promising their support in exchange for having their lands secured (which, in most cases, Alexios was pragmatic enough to spare them the mob’s fury). Such things further hollowed out the strength of their camp, leading to more victories by the Regency forces, more seizures of land and massacres of nobles, and more desertions in a desperate attempt to starve off the mob. Quite the vicious cycle. Third and lastly were more obvious and boring reasons such as the Regency army being interestingly enough more organized due to having control of the bulk of the imperial bureaucracy back in Constantinople and Thrace, better supplies thanks to the imperial navy, and of course having access to the state funds directly from the imperial treasury.

[1] Yet another OTL thing that he did after getting Serbian support IOTL as a back up plan; a testament of his diplomatic prowess. Unfortunately, IOTL he was not able to get Ivan Alexander’s support, who adamantly supported the Regency forces. (As a big 'fuck you' to the guy. I honestly forgot why, but the Tsar had a huge personal hatred of John Kantakouzenos. Probably due to getting the Turks to direct their naval raids into Bulgaria)

[2] Interestingly most of the nobility in Thessalonica seemed to have stayed loyal, which is why they didn’t immediately open the gates for John and his men. Unfortunately, that was not enough to save them.

[3] The Zealots did a similar thing in OTL due to effectively being cut off by both sides of the civil war for a few years despite nominally being part of the Regency side.
-----​

“Everyone then who hears these words of mine and does them will be like a wise man who built his house on the rock. 25 And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat on that house, but it did not fall, because it had been founded on the rock.”
-The Gospel of Matthew; Chapter 7, Verses 24 and 25.

[Transcript of a Podcast, 15 Byzantine Rulers]

“....What happens next? The war is won, but obviously the job’s not done yet. And this is where I think it gets really interesting. Because Alex has totally eliminated his opponents and is basically left in absolute control. Sure, the empress is regent for a few years until her death by plague but he’s still in charge of most day to day things. There’s no one group that can really stop him, and he knows that. The nobility just got a brutal mauling and the guy’s at the height of his popularity!”

“(Laughs) He rebuilds is what’s next. Then he starts changing things: the economy, the navy, important things. There’s a huge amount of fallout from the war and so many questions being ask of what’s going to happen, but first everybody agrees that the empire has to rebuild. And that isn’t exactly true. Alex can’t just shape the entire country in his own image no questions asked, he’ gotta play by the rules. Remember, he really wants to focus on what he wants; commerce, the economy and the navy, but at the same he needs to make sure that no one can undermine that. From inside and outside. And that means making sure he remains popular and the country stays stronger. So he can’t focus on what he wants just yet.”

“Ok so what does he do?”

“Like I said, he rebuilds and tries to keep the peace. I can’t underestimate just how important this is. It is of the utmost priority. The countryside has been damaged by the war, especially in Macedonia. But at the same time, he reforms. Land is parceled out. Tax rates are changed. The Bureaucracy is reformed. Peasants are encouraged to rebuild the dilapidated cloth industry, which had been in steep decline the last century. But its really that first part that’s the most important, I’d say. Because in the aftermath of the civil war, the imperial state just ended up with the largest increase of land under direct government control in decades. That means they can give out that land to their supporters in small, controllable plots rather than huge estates. So we see the big landed estates of the traitors being cut up and given to his supporters under a modified version of the old Pronoia system. Also helps in keeping the army he made around.”

“Now, what’s this about reform? How deep do the changes go? What’s the imperial policy to the defectors and old nobles?”

“Oh yeah. Alright, so the initial set of reforms basically deal with the bureaucratic and fiscal policy of the empire. Now this did begin during the war but as it continued until after the end of the war I’m including it within the set of reforms that were commonly characterize the Apokaukan reforms. The bureaucracy is given a bit of an overhaul. And by that I mean purge. Much of the old guard with ties to the old establishment is fired, exiled, murdered- whatever is needed to get them out of power. Then, they get replaced by more loyal elements. This is not only with officials, but also to governors and officers in the army. The only exception is Thessalonica, but we’ll get back to that later.

Second is the money situation. Being close to bankruptcy is something the empire has had to deal with on-off for the past century, and one that Alex, as a businessman, is not happy with it at all. How does he try to fix this? First he tries to get more trading going on. Second, he makes more taxpayers by basically giving away land. Giving out land does well to endear the people to the new boss, but that won’t last long if they don’t solve this one huge problem: The Tax Rate. Under the old government, taxes on the lower class were huge. So huge they drove many people to poverty and serfdom. Obviously, that’s not exactly popular, so Alex has to lower the tax rate to a more manageable level. This is, by all accounts a huge reduction in what they paid. Not exactly good for the budget. Thankfully, and this is where the leftover nobles and defectors come in. Alexius is able to raise taxes on what’s left of the big landowners and the nobles and really squeeze them in an attempt to make up the difference. He closes the legal loopholes, most of their financial privileges and tax exemptions and what not. They don’t like it, but he’s at the top of his game now and so they can’t really do anything about it. But most are thankful they still get to keep their lands. Despite all this, its unfortunately, that’s not enough to make up the difference. This isn’t a real reform.”

“Wait. But what about taxing the Church? Taxing them was usually how many people raised money in this time period. Also, why isn’t this enough? The state is taxing more people than it did a decade ago and more efficiently too. We know that small plots of land are easier to tax than big landowners”

“See, the thing is, he can’t do that. The Church, or rather the Patriarch was a supporter of him and his policies, interestingly enough. He can’t alienate that big of a support base. They helped out, and in return, he’s gotta do them a favor. That means not taxing them, restricting their influence in government, things like that. Second, its not enough because Alex isn’t just interested in making things more fair. He wants Rome to be able to compete with Venice, with Genoa, with all the other merchant powers. And that means building up a huge fleet. Only problem is a navy is really expensive. But he’s spending all his money on repairs and reforms and fortifications and what not, there’s not much, if any left over.”

“And how do they deal with that?”

(Laughs) “They don’t really. The Romans just pretty much wait and see for opportunities, quietly saving up money and fortifying until they can find an opportunity to expand their trading, little by little building up their navy and trying to defend against raids from Turkish pirates. Fortunately, they do get a few pretty soon. Grain prices start rising after the Golden Horde closes its ports to foreign merchants in 1343, so the Italians, particularly Venice are forced to buy more of their grain in the empire. Then the Aydinids, their old allies turned enemies, had really annoyed the wrong people with their raids on Christian shipping in the Aegean. It got to the point where eventually the Pope called a crusade to deal with them. Which really speaks more about how cheap crusades were than anything else, but this did elition a coalition of Christian mercenaries to attack the main Aydinid port of Smyrna. The coalition forces smash the Aydinid navy and take the city, denying them naval access for the better part of a year. This is where the Romans get their opening.”

“Mhm?”

“Right. Let me explain; while the Crusaders did take the city, they were never able to advance much further and take over the Beylik. At the same time, the Aydinids weren’t strong enough to push them out. That’s when the Romans come in and offer to help them out. Around 1346 or so- the records kinda sketchy- the Romans send out a message offering their support to capture the city of Smyrna and return it to the Bey in exchange for 2 things: A renewal of the old alliance during the reign of Andronikos III, an opening of Smyrna to Roman trade with similar trading quarters like the Italians merchants and tax exemptions for Roman merchants. Umar Bey, the current emir, accepts readily. And so in a few months the city is retaken and the Aydinids now have sea access once more while the Romans leave with a fancy new trade port.”

“That’s amazing. But can we back this up a bit; since you mentioned the importance of the navy, this raises another set of questions: What happened to the armed forces? What’s the navy doing in all this? And the army of the Civil War? Where’s that gone?”

“Couple of things. First off, they get downsized. Now this may seem weird, considering how useful having a large army was in the civil war, but you have to remember, that army was a bloated mess. And an expensive one. So it gets streamlined into a more manageable size. The extra lands are used to help re-institute pronoia and give the empire a steady supply of militia troops. These were mostly set in the border to defend and stall enemies until the main force of professional troops comes in. Nothing too radical per se, standard Early Palaiologoi doctrine. What really changes is the composition. Most of the new officers aren’t nobles with connections in the government, they’re recruited from the lowest classes that served well and were promoted on the basis of merit. As well, the mercenary forces that so categorized Andronicus were paid, disbanded and sent home. Alex hated, hated, hated mercenaries.”

"That’s weird, didn’t he use them as well?"

“He did in the war, but from his writings he seems to have a huge distaste of using mercenaries, considering them both absurdly expensive and disloyal. It was more efficient to just use militia in his opinion. With that said we do see mercenary use continue, just on a smaller scale. Now, continuing on with the army changes, there’s a bit of a change in army equipment, mostly some standardization, things like more crossbows being used. Now, on to the navy. This is where the things really change. Its upgraded, expanded and just improved overall. By around 1350, there’s a new shiny new fleet of around 35 to 40 warships. Compare this with the 20 or so in 1340. Interestingly enough, much of this is being paid out of pocket by Alexios himself. At one point he spends something like 50,000 hyperpyra on new ships. And it was a wise investment if I say so. Led to the reconquest of reconquest of Naxos and other Aegean islands in the near future. Also paid for itself pretty quickly during the joint raiding operations with the Aydinids and later the Saruhans. Unfortunately, this really annoyed Venice, Genoa and the Latin Crusader states in Greece, but you can’t win them all. Aside from raids, the navy was used to project power, which is why you start seeing things like interferences in Trebizond affairs and deals with Georgia and the Golden Horde.

"Alright, last question and this goes back to the peasants: What did the government do with the Zealots of Thessalonica and other radical movements? I mean they were large enough to possibly be considered a threat and were insanely influential. The governments got to have reacted to this somehow."

“This may seem weird, but not much actually- at least in the first decade or two. And there’s two main theories as to why. The first one is, they are too busy essentially. Basically, as the regime was for the most part too busy reorganizing the state, bureaucracy and the military to pay attention to what is for the most part is just peasants organizing in councils at the municipal level, forming militias to defend the border and occasionally pooling their resources together. It didn’t really hurt anything, and as most of them the radicals were willing to work with the government and pay their taxes, so there was a ‘live and let live’ attitude going around. It does make sense though. As I’ve implied this was a state that in the aftermath of a brutal civil war was organized around Alexious Apokaukos and his aids. Most of the people who would be against this, have been made -for the time being- politically irrelevant; the new people in charge are far more sympathetic to the lowest classes and their position, and in fact you sometimes could see the new government actually help out the peasants just to undermine the status of local aristocrats even more. But even that’s an insane amount of work. Trying to have each and every little group that forms loyal or sidelined was too much for the demands of the state, and they just ignored it until it was too big to ignore.

The second theory -and one that I lean towards too more, but both sides have their merits-, is that the government went along with it because it couldn’t do anything to stop it. Fresh from a civil war and busy trying to recover from a decades long decline, that doesn’t leave a lot of resources to impose Constantinople’s will outside of the bare minimum. And that would just make the empire look even more weak, potentially leading to more invaders coming in and ruining the progress that’s been made so far. Along with that, the army itself is probably stretched thin and made up of people who might just side with the peasants if said peasants get too popular. Due to all of the above, the imperial government took the path of least resistance and let things be. And there’s a huge piece of evidence that supports this view: Thessalonica itself, with the Zealots and their council being in charge for a very long time after being re-instituted in the empire. I mean, the nominal governor, John Apokaukos, was basically a figurehead at worst, a liason at best. Thessalonica did what it wanted and there was almost nothing the government could do to stop it."

"Professor, thank you for your time."

"Happy to be of service. It was great being here."

-----

It is 1344. After 3 years of a grueling, intense, brutal conflict, the Second Palaiologoi Civil war is finally over. Peace however brief it may be, returns to the Empire of the Romans. And though bloodied from the time of war, the imperium stands united and optimistic; a new era is dawning with fresh minds in charge, ready to meet the needs of a changing world. When the world moves on, Rhomania will not be left behind.
Let us look forward a decade later. We see that after the dramatic upheavals faced in the past few decades that saw catastrophic loss in wealth and men in the empire, things are finally starting to cool down and settle into a more acceptable pace. With popular support, a competent government, and neighbors that were more preoccupied with their own affairs than disrupting the imperials, the Roman empire would finally enter a period of brief, yet vital rest and recovery. During this period, the crucial reforms that had been at the minds of many would be laid out to the benefit of the empire. Said reforms were primarily focused on rooting out the more pressing issues that plagued the state: a weak economy, an impoverished tax base, a demolished industry and a nearly nonexistent commercial sector. By the time conflict once again broke out and the empire intervened in the Third Venetian-Genoese War, a new creature had replaced the one the world had come to know.

Nearly every facet of the empire would come to be altered in the decade that had passed since the end of the Second Palaiologian Civil War: Economics, living standards, finances, military readiness, manpower, the navy, the cities, diplomacy, the guilds, and even the church. The Apokaoukan reforms, implemented swiftly in the end of 1343 had done much to restructure the empire in a positive way. Imperial finances had noticeably increased and the destitution that so very much characterized the late empire began to give way little by little. A glimmer of hope appeared in the empire. Please note however, that despite the large progress these changes had, it was still too early for Constantinople to have bounced back to her former glory. The army was tiny, the navy equally so and it was with great difficulty that the imperial coffers were able to be filled. Like a patient just coming into rehabilitation, there was still much more progress to be made, but the worst had passed.

To better grasp at the multitude of development that had occurred, it has been decided to categorize the internal and external modifications of the state by category. Therefore, this update will tackle what has changed on a subject by subject basis.

Finances:

In the efforts at achieving their most pressing needs- a means to increase the wealth of the empire- the Apokaukan reforms were largely successful in achieving that. The policies put in place, such as the establishment of the Imperial Roman Trading Company (a state owned enterprise that ensured government monopoly on external trading) [1] and the expansion of the merchant navy did well to bring in much needed coin.

Especially the latter. The Roman naval expansion (both in terms of warships and the merchant navy) over the past decade was critical in bringing in what Apokaukos had promised:a taste of the wealth that Venice and Genoa enjoyed from trade (and of course, loot from joining in pirate raids- one mustn’t forget about that). This was done by not only increasing the size of the navy and its personnel but also by expanding the presence of Roman merchants primarily in the Aegean and Black Seas. (Roman merchants, like the Venetians in the 11th century seemed to have had a fear of going into places they didn’t know too well) As well, the diplomatic arrangements with the Aydinid Emirate (and by proxy the beylik of Saruhan) ensured that piracy against Roman vessels was at an all time low while providing another excellent source of wealth: Piracy. Roman sailors often joined in with the emirates on raids against Christian shipping in the Aegean. (Later on as the Aydinids grew rich from their plunder and gained better fleets and naval bases of their own, these raids expanded their operations into the Eastern Mediterranean.) A risky yet rewarding proposition.

One must note that yes, this did infuriate the Italian merchants in the region as competition increased, but it thankfully did not lead to war with the Venetians or the Genoese or whoever due to a fortunate combination of external factors. Beginning with the expulsion of the Venetians from the Golden Horde in 1341, relations between the two states had yet again started to plummet and a state of low level undeclared war started up. It was seen as inevitable that a proper war would form, so the two attempted to avoid as many ‘unnecessary distractions’ until the next round of conflict began. In any case, Rome had found her trade presence began to increase, and with the additional money flowing into imperial coffers from this trade, efforts at improving infrastructure, internal trade, industry and agricultural yields.
However, there was another source of important income that came throughout the decade, ironically enough from the Merchant republics that were so often accused of taking away what money should be flowing into Constantinople's coffers.

Much like the Regency victory of the Regency faction in the Second Palaiologian civil war, this was not due to any imperial efforts, but rather a pleasant source of international affairs; in 1341, the Khanate of the Golden Horde had banished Venetian Merchants from its realm after a diplomatic crises that resulted in the Venetian Navy attempting to firebomb the Genoese Colonies at the Crimea. While they were largely successful in their goal, many important nobles in the Khanate had been killed. Enraged, the Khan banned all Venetian merchants from his realm and forbid any sales to the merchant republic. [2] What this meant that Venice’s primary source of cheap grain had been cut off, and prices skyrocketed in the city. In response, Venice had to obtain grain from different sources: Egypt noticeably, but also in fertile areas of Greece and Thrace. Much to the delight of farmers and merchants within the empire, demand for grain had grown considerably, and so had their profits in time. Profits which then flowed into the cities to the eventual benefit of all.

This admittedly raises the question of how did the average person benefit from all this? The answer is very much. As previously stated, the average peasant in the Late Roman Empire was much more poorer than his counterpart in say, 1000 AD. Crippling high taxes, frequent wars that led to economic disruption, poor infrastructure, and reduction in average field sizes had led a very sizable reduction in GDP per capita. With the ease in the tax burden and generous land reform policy, the troubles that had plagued the peasants began to go away. To the average peasant, this was a Godsend and easily the greatest period to be living in for a lower class Roman since the Late Komnenoi, maybe even the Macedonian Dynasty. With their tax rate finally decreased (although not that much, lowering taxes to a non oppressive rate would bankrupt the state, still it was a noticeable decrease that allowed them to save some coins) and a generous land reform policy sponsored by the imperial government, the chance of renting and owning land skyrocketed. But there lies one more benefit in this period, and that is a rise in wages. Because just like nearly everywhere else in Europe, with the passing of the Black Plague came a labor shortage that meant demand for labor increased. And when demand increases, prices rise. [3] The culmination of all these factors meant an increase in the standard of living for the oppressed masses.

Apokaukos’ government had gambled that having access to a larger tax base via land distribution, confiscation of property, land sales and trade increases would be enough to make up for the ease in the tax burden in the long run. And in this case, it worked out. Rising grain prices, shrinking poverty, a tightening of legal loopholes and tax exemptions, and the increase in trade both in the empire and outside it allowed the empire to managed to obtain much needed funds in ways that did not involve brutalizing the lower classes. And with the government placated for the time being (and still fearful of revolution against the new boss) the lower classes were left alone to prosper. And slowly yet surely they did. These effects would take decades to be fully realized, but every year led to more and more growth, and therefore more and more wealth piling up.

The government on the other hand was a bit less enthusiastic. The simple reason for that is despite all of the new laws and strategies and government actions, there simply wasn’t as much of a gain for the empire as originally expected. While yes, the initial phase of the Renovation did great with land reform and establishing the navy, as well as increasing the amount of troops these things didn’t give the government what it really wanted: a larger treasury. State funds were indeed higher, but due to a myriad of factors (mainly rising costs in supporting the navy and attempting to refortify) they weren’t that much higher than the last days of Andronikos II, and therefore, criminally underfunded. The Black Death and its robbing of taxpayers would see to that. Combined with all the other projects that the state had in mind meant that the Roman state was increasingly desperate for cash and had to resort to more... unorthodox methods of obtaining wealth. Mainly, this was done through looting; either from attacking shipping, or raiding someone else like a beylik or Latin crusader states.

This does in turn raise of could the empire get away with that? The answer is with some ingenious diplomacy and underhanded tactics. Recall that after the Smyrniote Crusade, the Beylik of Aydin had once more regained control of Smyrna thanks to Roman aid. In exchange for this, the alliance between the two powers was renewed and trading rights were obtained. Thanks to this, Roman sailors and ships would be able to join in on Aydinid raids all across the Aegean Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, bringing in some much needed coin to the coffers back in Constantinople. Even better, thanks to often joining in the Aydinids, Byzantine sailors were able to walk away from the raids without Constantinople being suspected of involvement in many cases. This of course was a highly risky proposition and at several times inflicted retribution from other powers, but the Romans managed to stay under the radar most of the time. Anyways, thanks to the combination of all the above factors, imperial finances managed to be *relatively* stable for the next decade.

Diplomacy and Foreign Policy:

Alexios Apokaukos had always been an intelligent man; someone who was usually savvy enough to know where the wind was blowing. Therefore, when he started undertaking his massive overhauls to the imperial state, it was with the knowledge that he had to make sure that the empire was secure enough to undergo its metamorphosis without any... unnecessary distractions. Not a single hyperpyra must be wasted on any wars of defense. Here diplomacy and soft power were the key to obtaining imperial security. Steps must be taken to ensure the peace needed for reform. With that in mind, let us look to how the empire dealt with her neighbors and rivals in the immediate years following the war.
Despite how we now know the greatest threat to the empire were the Turkish Beyliks and the Italian merchant republics, the peoples at the empire lacked the benefit of hindsight. They believed that it was the traditional neighbors of the empire in the Balkans were the largest potential damage and thus, received the largest bits of immediate attention and placating.

As such, a reaffirmation of the treaty with Bulgaria under the Tsar Ivan Alexander was confirmed and a marriage alliance was negotiated with young John V to be wed to Ivan Alexander’s daughter, Kera Tamara (when both came of age, of course). The Bulgarian Tsar accepted these terms relatively easily due to growing conspiracy in his own nation that he need to turn his attention towards- where in which the Bolyars of his realm had been planning to revolt. With Serbia fearing Hungarian invasion under their new king Louis and a friendly Wallachia to the North, Rhomania was the only potential source of aggression, and with this treaty that would be taken care of. But the treaty did more than merely secure peace: trade between the empires once more began to reach a respectable level, and the peace ensured allowed for easier development of the frontier regions.

The other important threat to the empire (on land at least), Serbia, was dealt with very carefully. Serbia, under the great king Stefan Dusan, had managed to rapidly expand northwards at the expense of Hungary, carving out a small sphere of influence in Croatia, Dalmatia and the unannexed parts of Bosnia. These additional resources and the appearance of a well trained Serbian military stemming from reports of Hungarian losses promulgated by Serbian propaganda led to Constantinople to treat the Serbs as a very dangerous threat. Should Stefan Dusan at any time decide to march south, when Rome had not yet recovered from her decline, the results would be disastrous. Countermeasures must be taken to ensure the stability of the realm. For the time being this meant do as little as possible to not antagonize the Serbs at any cost while trying to find a good partner to counter them. Partners such as Hungary, being the obvious choice, but also Bulgaria were considered.

Now, that leaves a few other states that bordered the empire: Epirus, which in the chaos of war had managed to partially break free from imperial domination; the Duchy of Athens currently under the control of a Catalan aristocracy; and the principality of Achaea. (For our purposes the Aegean is not being considered in this case, rest assured the Duchy of Naxos has not been forgotten) All 4 were, collectively speaking, small, decentralized principalities with weak economies and under the control of an elite that was mostly unpopular amongst its subjects. In theory, they should have been prime subjects for conquest. But reality has never been that simple. Repeat attempts and raids against the Latin Crusader states of Greece has taught the Romans that despite their weakness, they were still powerful enough to withstand full on invasions, yearly raids and a rapidly shrinking pool of soldiers, a testament to their stubbornness and how terrible the imperial military was at the time.

So another direct round of campaigns to reconquer former territory was discarded- at least for the time being. Instead Eastern Rome would try a more roundabout approach following the years after second Palaiologian war. Weakening their opponents as much as possible, using whatever means it can, before attempting to attack them. This was, curiously enough, not a conscious set of policies but more of a reaction to attempting to copy the Italian states, who also dominated the region using economic and political leverage. Roman travellers would note that Italian merchants frequently sold goods in Greece proper at very low prices, often lower than what it would cost if consumers bought locally. Economics dictated that these practices of dumping led to an undermining of native industries and a good deal of money entering the coffers of the merchant states. And if tariffs were ever decreed, the Italian states would intervene and ‘convince’ the rulers to see the status quo was for the best.

Thus, the Eastern Roman Empire did what they could over the years to bring back a similar level of hegemony for the time being. Peace was secured with the states (sans Athens), under a similar level of friendship the late Kantakouzenos had planned, but this time with an emphasis on opening up trade rather than levying soldiers in the time of need. The states did agree to the deal, viewing it as nothing that could really harm them too much. Little did they know that this further hollowed out their debased economies as the Romans could just as easily dump goods into their region and at even lower prices than what the merchant republics offered thanks to smaller shipping and transportation costs. And since the Roman economy had undergone a tremendous amount of damage and debasement, any and all goods sold still made a profit. (This of course, one must note, was not a sustainable policy. As time went on, the costs of labor rose such that economic sectors were losing money in selling their goods at lower prices than they what they cost to make and people began to agitate to the government in ceasing this. But by then the Crusader states had outlived their usefulness anyway...)

The next major group Roman diplomacy focused a large part following the implementation of the Renovation was the two Italian Merchant Republics: Genoa and Venice. Both sides straddled the Eastern Mediterranean as giants, sapping up as much wealth and trade as they could sense and intervening whenever they could to obtain the best outcome for themselves. Here in the Aegean, this was not different, and in fact their success in the realm of commerce was what prompted the Renovation in the first place. Genoa and Venice controlled the bulk of the revenue that came in from the Silk Road terminals this far east, and as such the new regime viewed them with respect and with fear. Apokaukos, keenly aware of the power of the two realized that antagonizing any one of them was suicide.

Roman policy was, in word: Mollify. The new regime, in a drastic change from their predecessors realized they were no longer the big fish in the small pond. To antagonize any one of the two major powers, especially at their own game, would be tantamount to suicide and a drastic blow to any plans of reviving imperial power. Such is that the Romans did all they could to stay on the two Italians good sides. Keeping tariffs low (or nonexistent), trading in places where the Italians tended to avoid/had less of a presence in (places like Aydin, Candar, Georgia and Circassia, and as the Romans got bolder Tunis and the Maghreb), and trading much less where in which the Romans and the Italians both frequented as such to not undermine their profit margin. As one would expect this was a policy that was costly for the imperials and perhaps unnecessary, but in the aftermath of a brutal civil war combined the state feeling insecure of itself in commercial endeavors, this was seen as the safe option. And perhaps, to an extent- it worked. Once more, the goal of peace was achieved: War did not break out until the Roman intervention in the Third Venetian-Genoese trade war. But at the same time, going out to lesser places did have a nice impact of giving the merchants new contacts and new markets. The trading between the Marinids and the Romans following the former’s conquest of Ifriqiya was a large boon to both, giving to the Romans buyers as far south as the Sahelian states and the Berbers a healthy profit being the middlemen between the two.

Finally, we move on the last major recipients of Roman diplomatic policy worth being discussed: The Anatolian Beyliks. As the conquerors of the former heartlands of the empire, there was a special… distaste towards these particular states. Normally the initial response would be to send in troops and reconquer the region. But dire circumstances force upon a necessary pragmaticism, and this was certainly no different a time. The Beyliks of Anatolia, much like the rest of the Saracens in occupied Roman territory, were agents the needed to be dealt with on a case by case basis depending on what would best aid the empire. Here, it was money and security that was needed. And allies are the greatest suppliers of both. Let us look then to the coastal beyliks, the ones in which the imperials have had the most contact with and to be honest, the ones they care about most. Here we have two in which deserve distinction: The Aydinids, and the Ottomans.

One might already know that in 1347 the so called Smyrniote Crusade was launched at the Aydinids to end their pirate raids and though briefly successful, Roman intervention put an end to that dream. The Aydinids got back their port, and the Emir was thankful enough to resume diplomatic relations with the man who killed his best friend. Trade began anew, as did the piracy raids, this time with the Romans offering to join in. Perhaps the greatest foreign policy decision of its time, with this a highly value ally was obtained that provided free experience for its sailors, a bulwark against the Ottomans and in the words of one Venetian admiral in the late 14th century “A loyal and vicious attack dog” (no doubt a reference to Roman diplomacy often having quite the impact on who the Aydinids decided who was their next raiding target). The Empire fostered excellent relations with this state whenever it could and eagerly directed its raids to whoever it hated, along with encouraging the Aydinids to increase their fleet and naval prowess as much as it could. The ramifications of these actions would not be seen for quite a while, and can be rightly criticized as short sided but for the time being, it was of immensely beneficial to both sides. Certainly highly useful in the future clashes with the Ottoman Beylik.

Which leads us into our next topic of relations: The Ottoman Beylik. One of the largest, most recent and perhaps most importantly, well organized states in Anatolia, this had been the greatest thorn in the side to the Roman Empire during the reign of Andronicus III. They had taken the tremendously lands of Western Anatolia where the largest source of tax revenue was generated. The great cities of Nicea, Nicomedia and Bursa had all been stolen from the imperials by the Ottomans. Rome harbored an immense hatred of this state, and this reflected in its policy. When not fortifying their half of the straits, Rome did all it could to sabotage the Ottomans. Using its relations with the nearby Saruhan, Aydin and Candar, the Imperial government formed an unofficial coalition against Ottoman aggression. Initially met with some skepticism, the conquest of the Karesids altered the emirs that despite the Ghazis having run out of Christian land to take, war was far from over. Following a period of consolidation and organization, Muslim lands, their lands, would be next. It is by that fear (along with recent economic prowess and a rise in prestige) in which the Romans, bound and isolated the Ottomans from most of her immediate neighbors, attempting to sap as much strength and goodwill before starting up a war of conquest where at the time all sides would go and receive a slice of the beylik. A tempting offer indeed: a plan of mutual protection, co-operation and eventual prospering of eliminating a common foe, but as a certain allohistorical poet would say, ‘the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.’

[1] The Roman Empire had a disdain for capitalism in general, but overall it seemed to have an avid distaste for what we would call corporations; judging on how hostile writers were to the Genoese, who ran their trading as private enterprise. Because of this, combined with a government that is paranoid on keeping its monopoly on wealth and power, it stands to reason that should they try to expand into the realm of capitalism, would do so in a manner they’d feel safest about.

[2]: Happened in OTL and yes the Venetians did start buying from the Empire. Also ITTL, the rather brutal purge of nobility, their drastic weakening in terms of monetary assets and general population loss means people in the empire just aren’t spending as much money on Venetian luxury goods such as cloth and spices (a major source of income for Venice OTL). This means that in addition to having to spend more money on their enemies, the Venetians are making less of a profit from the Romans. Not a favorable trade balance and not one they can really rectify with war.

[3] This also has the wonderful effect of slowing down old displaced nobles from bouncing back so quickly as their would be serfs and tenants now have much more bargaining power.
 

Deleted member 67076

Interesting thread.
Please do not post in the Story Only thread; instead take it to the discussion thread.

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Urban Culture and other Domestic Developments


On the surface, what occurred to the urbanization of the Roman Empire seems to be a depressing affair. Urbanization rates dropped substantially in the 1340s-50s, with some cities such as Thessalonica falling to a ‘paltry’ 30,000 at times and Constantinople dropping to around 40,000- a mere shadow of its former glory when the city harbored 200,000 souls. Cities across the empire were shrinking as people flocked to the countryside. But in practice things are never that easy. In fact if you asked the average Roman bureaucrat what he thought of people moving out into the countryside, he’d think its a good thing. More people to work the lands, defend the frontier, mine, and otherwise do something productive with their lives. Although, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. First of all, why is the number dropping so fast? Why doesn’t the government doing anything about it?

Pretty simple really. Its 2 things, the change in the domestic situation, and this wonderful thing called the Black Death. As you, the reader, probably know by now, just a few years ago most of the prospects for owning land were relatively low. Various powerful families own most of the land, people were on average poor even by the standards of Medieval Europe, an attempt at creating serfdom, and other economic factors that tended to create a large amount of urban poor. By 1345, that’s all gone. The latifundia have been broken up, the government is giving out land on an unprecedented scale, wages are rising, taxes have been slashed and anyone who might try to press you into not quite serfdom has either fled or been killed. This is a huge opportunity. Predictably, people took it.

The second is this wonderful we know as the Black Death. A transfer of bubonic plague from Asia into Europe in the late 1340s, it ravaged its way across the continent, taking with it c. ⅓ of the population by the start of 1350. Rome, being very urbanized for its time, with many of its cities having less than adequate sewage systems (lack of funds and institutional rot are terrible things to have) was one of the worst places hit by the plague. In cities, plague spread rapidly and mercilessly. As such, people eventually made the connection that cities were unsafe places to be and migrated into the countryside setting up their farms and small towns. The new round of land grants that began after the fallout of the Black Death was yet another incentive to move away from the towns. This was especially noticeable in Thessalonica, which had the most drastic drop in population. Many of the urban poor fled the city in droves, taking with them the radical theology they had come to know and support. The so called ‘Zealots of Thessalonica’ was at the forefront of exporting radical doctrine to the masses.

And speaking of Thessalonica, the city’s character once more changed throughout the 1340s. When the pro regency forces conquered the city, they discovered one much different than what they had come to know. Pre Civil War Thessalonica was an aristocratic dominated shipyard where due to a variety of factors that would take to long to discuss here, came to house the largest concentration of nobility outside Thrace and Constantinople. It had, since the fall of Nicaea, shifted into the second city of the empire with a thriving shipyard and industry. However, as previously mentioned, Thessalonica was filled to the brim with poor residents, many of whom made a meager living as dockworkers, fishermen, servants and other such lower class professions. Living in sight of such opulence yet having these riches constantly out of their grasp, the lower classes were a fertile and receptive ground for anything willing to challenge the balance of power. Therefore, when the Zealots of Thessalonica began to organize and take the streets, preaching equality for all, they workers eagerly took to it.

For those who are not familiar, the Zealots of Thessalonica were a popular movement originating during the Second Palaiologian Civil War espousing a radical theology that took Christ’s teaching of social justice to what many had seen as the logical extreme. Rather than simply providing to the poor, the Zealots espoused what allohistorically one would call socialism. They demanded a radical redistribution of wealth amongst which everyone would receive a fair share of resources. In a time when the traditional values of social justice and philanthropy had been seemingly going to the wayside, these new men gave a refreshing message, energizing the population to take action.(It must be noted that such a thing was not without precedent -one can find similar movements all across history, the followers of the Zoroastrian Prophet Mazdak during the reign of the Shahanshah Khavad in ancient Persia are one such example.) Naturally the aristocracy was terrified, but blocked off from their estates by Kantakouzenos’ army (Thessalonica was, strangely enough, always pro Regency despite its relatively high numbers of nobility and other large landowners) there was no way to enforce their demands and stamp out the increasingly aggravated peasantry.

What follows next is a slaughter, as angry mobs led by disgruntled monks and other charismatic leaders revolt against the established order. The aristocracy is brutally massacred within the walls of the city, and their property and wealth is redistributed amongst the lower classes. An interim government was established where in which a council- the majority of which were Zealot members or at the very least friendly to the Zealot establishment- ran the affairs of the city. This state of affairs continued until Regency forces broke the siege in 1343 and returned the city under imperial control. (In theory, in practice this really meant Thessalonica was more of an ally than a province)

Thessalonica, by the time the armies of the Regency breached the gates of the city, was no longer just another imperial city- it had become a de facto independent state. Where what once was an imperial city now lay a commune. And it was this curious state affairs, formed by the blockade of the outside world that allowed such a radical change. But whats even stranger is that due to the weakness of the imperial state, this was allowed to continue. Tired of war and rapidly running out of money, Apokaukos had no time for further adventures, and although he personally detested the Zealots, seeing them as a thorn in his side and a potential fifth column, he was pragmatic enough to leave them be for the time being. The Zealots had pledged their loyalty to his cause throughout the war due to a common hatred of the Old Regime and an interest in reform, and when the army proclaimed the reintegration no one really protested. But none of that involved removing members of the imperial council with his own men and restarting taxation. That would come later, and that would very likely start problems.

Apokaukos, in his seemingly incessant pragmatism, allowed the city to continue to run its internal affairs so long as a certain amount of taxation would be paid to the central government every year. As well (and this was mostly to mollify his powerbase who viewed the action as a potential showing of weakness) his son John was appointed as mayor of the Thessalonian city council in hopes of working as a liaison between the Zealot controlled local government and the imperial state. At the time, this deal worked out for everyone more or less. The Zealots got to run their own state in which the peasantry would obtain their rightful share and the old regime would be purged- a mini paradise in their eyes while the Imperial government obtained access to the major port, an additional source of revenue and her people for the navy. The circumstances of control would be a very subtle tug of war in the background where the Imperial and the local government battled for influence amongst the populace. This deal is also noticeable for by giving the Zealots their own autonomy, the state began to focus more of its energies on restoring Constantinople as a center of trade, which had been under steep decline. We must note that however strange to the modern viewer, in the Middle Ages such 'off hand' control of cities was very much the norm, particularly in France, where the great cities often ran themselves as de facto republics under vassalage to the ruling sovereign.

This deal was not without its problems and opponents. Primarily of which was the Church who opposed the Zealots on the principle of being Barlaamists, and therefore heretical in their doctrine. The reigning Patriarch attempted to pressure the remainder of the Regency faction to move against the Zealots however they could, to limited results. The army simply wasn’t ready for more military actions, much less continue to aggravate potential causes of war, the Zealots were fairly popular in their own right and of course the state’s energies would be needed elsewhere to continue the planned reforms. Then there was the much of the middle class who viewed the Zealots as a threat to their small yet noticeable wealth. Being the ones who staffed the imperial bureaucracy and therefore dictated policy, they did what they could to reduce Zealot influence without resorting to any violent measures. Although it is certain many would be murdered behind the scenes for their beliefs, the most common way to weaken the Zealots was to simply erode their audiences and their popularity. Alleviating the concerns of the peasants with land and other opportunities to improve their station was seen as the moderate option that would dissuage many from choosing more radical paths. This was a mixed blessing- one the one hand Thessalonica shrunk due to all the people moving out and the Zealots were proportionately more powerful (it also didn’t help that the Thermidor effect was kicking in and many began to moderate their positions) but on the other, many peasants themselves exported the ideas of the Zealots to whatever small village they were relocated to, turning those villages into miniature communes as well. Additionally, the country side was repopulated by the influx of new settlers. Thanks to the decentralization following the fourth crusade and the constant need to avert attention and resources to other matters, once these ideas spread and took root in the far corners of the empire, such matters were difficult to remove. The coming years would see Rome seeing these new ideas of anti aristocratic sentiment move in and spread, far away from their homelands.

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The Third Genoese-Venetian War

The period of peace and stability of the first decade of the Renovation was an excellent time for Eastern Rome. The economy grew, the population rose (after brutally being cut in the Black Death), state finances were better than they had been in decades and a semblance of stability was the norm. As a whole, things looked great and the future was bright. But like all good things, it eventually came to an end. War would once more rear its ugly head and return to Rome. Only time would tell if the choices made under the new regime would be enough to save her.
But lets back this up real quick. Why would war return? As always the answer is: variety of factors, but long story short the current war Rome got dragged into was a reaction to the fluctuation of power in the region. You see, following the Black Death, nearly every country in Europe has suffered massive loss in people and thus, labor and tax base. Some of course, were more heavily hit than others. Venice, due to its dense nature and high population, suffered heavily. At the same time, her rival Genoa had lost nearly half of her population and resultantly, a huge source of income and less people to man the navy.

This left Genoa in a very awkward position; where in which to keep the budget to a sustainable level Genoa would have to make a tough choice. Either they A) slash the military to a reasonable level (and therefore look weak, potentially inviting Venice or some other enemy to resume hostilities or B) do something drastic to keep the gold flowing. Naturally they chose option B, which translated into a show of force on the neighborhood. In less flattering terms this means Genoa had turned to intensely raiding its neighbors, demanding tribute and cutting down on piracy in the region. While this sounds rather odd, it actually made (some) sense at the time. Raiding would provide much needed income quickly, and show that Genoa had not been weakened from the war. Additionally, cutting down on piracy (which in practice amounted to attacking Aragonese ships [1]) is a solid way of increasing your profit margin.

And this worked. Too well in fact. To the point where Venice was so scared it started an anti Genoese alliance with Aragon. (The latter joining in because those pirates ended up making a good amount of money for the state and with Castille suffering a major crises at the time Aargon felt more secure in its position) In the terms of the alliance, Aragon provided an extra ~30 galleys and any additional manpower Venice requested. This coalition of sorts was later expanded to get Pisa in the coalition the following year (1351), who was still furious about losing Corsica in 1295. With such a coalition of powers, Venice felt secure enough to resume its attempts to undermine the competition, which of course led to a resumption of hostilities. War was declared in 1350, with Venice and her allies planning to strike hard and fast on Genoese assets, hoping to strangle key sources of income and bring the Republic to its knees.

Initially, this overwhelming display of force did the job. In the first few months of the war, both Venice and Aragon moved their fleets to the Aegean. From there they launched concentrated raids, seizing and burning the colony of Galata near Constantinople. Following that, the other Crimean colonies of Genoa were put under siege [2] For the time being, it must have looked as if Genoa’s prospects were dire; they were drastically outnumbered (even with the reduced fleets in the aftermath of manpower shortage) and Genoa was stretched thin, with a host of trading ports, colonies and naval stations that the republic that needed to be defended. But that early luck ran out. Genoa regrouped her forces earlier and the war devolved into a chaotic series of hit and run attacks, raids, piracy and the occasional pitched sea battle.

Most of which initially took place in the Aegean, the Ionian and Black Seas, which brings us to Eastern Rome. Despite intensive pressure from both republics, Rome kept a stance of armed neutrality for the first year. And at the start, this was hard to dislodge. Unlike previous years, there were no separatists, no imperial claimants clawing for power and willing to revolt against the emperor and his inner circle, no great general to bribe and attack for them. Just a solid regime that was brutally in control with a loyal support base and a frustratingly large navy. (To the standards of the Genoa and Venice in this war, Genoa could barely field 100 galleys and here was Rome with a fully stacked ~40. Isn’t it wonderful to have a relatively large population?)

But back to the carnage. Despite all sides having a much smaller manpower base than before, they both fought harder and more fanatically than previously recorded, leading to much higher casualty rates. This was punctuated by a trend of increasingly more pitched battles with more and more ships and men thrown into the meat-grinder, culminating in the Battle of the Bosphorus in spring 1351. Over 100 ships were involved, the vast majority of them ending up at the bottom of the sea by the end of the battle. It was this moment that the Romans decided to gamble and join the war effort. The sheer amount of carnage and devastation that occurred right outside Constantinople’s doorstep convinced the inner circle of the empire that both sides would be exhausted and this was a golden opportunity to expand. A month after the battle’s conclusion, an emissary reached doge’s palace in Genoa. Rome would lend her men and ships to Genoa’s cause.
Why did Rome jump into what seems like yet another costly war they should stay out of? You’d think that after a mere decade of reform it’d be unwise to return to like sticking one’s hand into a hornet’s nest. Even worse when you consider the historical track record: pretty much every time Rome decided to intervene in the affairs of the warring states, they ended up losing in some way or another. So why here? Why not just stay on the sidelines and watch both weaken themselves?

The reason that this conflict was different- Rome had quite a lot to gain for little work, relatively speaking. The fighting would be in the imperial backyard, the Merchant republics (and the Beylik of Aydin) would do most of the work, and the tantalizing prizes of Athens, Naxos, and other former possessions would be open for reconquest without many complaining about aggression. It was a relatively reasonable proposition in terms of economic calculus at the time. And that economic calculus also explains the rationale for who’s side to take in this conflict. In joining the war effort alongside Genoa, Eastern Rome had more to gain: Revenge for the Fourth Crusade, forcing a major rival to start paying commerce taxes once more, regaining prestige, weakening an enemy and of course, seizing territory. Of which, that last one was likely the greatest material incentive to support Genoa. In antagonizing Genoa, Romania might regain the Crimea and once more cement Constantinople as the major trading center in the Black and Aegean seas (as Galata would most certainly be destroyed). But in siding with Genoa, Romanian opens herself up to taking all the Venetian territories dotted around her lands; the Venetian islands in the Ionian sea, the Duchy of Athens, the Duchy of the Islands (better known as Naxos), Euboea and of course the grand prize of Crete. (They of course weren’t thinking that Genoa might want some of that too but whatever). Venice was just too tempting to resist, and her allies far, far away.

With these questions answered, let us return to where we left off. Upon the formal agreement to join forces with the Genoese “For retribution at the injustices, the expulsion, and final extermination of the Venetian Republic”, public sentiment in Genoa rose, as with it the desire to continue the war. Neither of the Italian Republics were blind to the developments going on in Eastern Rome, with its de-urbanization, naval expansion and fraternization with the Turkish Beyliks being treated as curious developments that while should not be taken a blind eye towards, were not enough of a threat to merit intervention- especially not when tensions had been rapidly plummeting with Venice and the other Italian states. Everyone in Genoa knew war would once more return since Venice began to occupy the critical niche Genoa had set for itself as the broker between the Steppe Khans of the Silk Road and Western Europe. Wasting resources to put the Byzantines back in line, critically when they’re united under stronger leadership than hadn’t been seen since the days of Michael VII would be a waste of money at best, and a grievous folly at worst. But that’s irrelevant now. What is, is that Genoa had seen a positive development of the East Roman state and gladly accepted its aid in a time of crisis.

And now back to the story. In the next month or so the two powers would see talks of coordination and mobilization of military assets in East Rome. These talks would prove a very fruitful endeavor, with a brilliant plan devised that would critically shift the balance in this war. Taking advantage of Rome’s outward neutrality and policy of naval rearmament to avoid suspicion, Genoa managed to smuggle many of its engineers, shipwrights and other specialists (disguised as Turkish merchants of all things) to build a Genoese fleet in Constantinople via the latter’s arsenal over the winter. At the same time, Rome would use a combination of bribery and diplomatic leverage to shift the piracy of Aydinids and their allies away from the Genoese republic, freeing additional ships to be used in the fight against Venice. In the Queen of Cities, the resources of the empire were put at work to expand the shipyards and docks to build the desired fleet. The urban poor would be put to work in building the fleet and Genoese loans would pay for the raw materials and upkeep needed. Not to say that our empire got a blank check, but Genoese banks were very generous in how they split the bill. Despite initial hopes, progress was slower than expected thanks to a combination of inexperience and lack of institutions that were present in the Merchant Republics to facilitate the building and outfitting of ships. In spite of that however, the winter was fruitful and 26 ships were built, outfitted and manned to Genoese specifications.

On the spring of 1352, the new offensive was launched. Not from the port of Constantinople, but from a field army in Northern Thessaly. Roman forces were too cut off and occupy the Duchy of Athens, preventing the arrival of reinforcements to Venetian controlled Euboea. The ‘field army’, comprising the bulk of the professional Roman forces, swept through the relatively impoverished region straight for the capital. Athenian military forces- the decedents of the Catalan company that initially conquered the territory in the early 1300s- managed put up decent amounts of resistance when the knights could, despite the deck being thoroughly stacked against them. Athenian forces were stretched thin following the war’s beginning (where under orders from Barcelona, the military had to support Venice as much as they could, which amounted to having a large contingent of troops stationed on the island and away from their manors) and the military wasn’t under the best of conditions due to an increasingly worsening economy, that began to crack under the strain of no longer receiving Roman imports [3]. This was then followed up by Roman soldiers enticing revolts by the local Greek peasantry using the incentives of restoring Orthodoxy and lowering taxes. And, contrary to what one might expect at this point, nobles were not massacred (Ok most of the time). Instead ransoming being for a profit was the standard, for both money and for limiting the annoyance of Aragon, who still had limited engagement.

One can probably see where this is going. In just a few months, Athens is in dire shape; the military’s already overstretched with commitments overseas, the economy is rapidly contracting forcing higher extractions on the peasantry, the invading army is matching your forces better than expected, and the amount of fires needing to be put out in the form of revolts is growing more and more. Eventually this leads to troops deserting and most of the land being in enemy hands by May, and the capital being sieged in July. Oh, and the initial goal of defending the Venetian island? That failed horribly. It is no surprise that when the Romans reach the walls of the city, Duke Frederick [4] surrenders without much of a fight under the offer of clemency from Romania.

Speaking of Euboea, at the same time Romania’s troops marched down to reclaim their territory on the mainland, from Constantinople emerged a combined Roman-Genoese fleet launching simultaneous attack on the island. Overwhelming force was once again the rule, despite valiant resistance. The Island capitulated swiftly, and with it the major Venetian forts in the Aegean. It gets worse the Venetians, as word reaches the city that Naxos, their ‘ally’ has fallen. Its not from the usual suspects however; instead it was, of all things, the Beylik of Aydin, who made a calculated risk attacking a Venetian territory correctly guessing that enemy forces would be more focused on other matters than on a minor, if strategically located player in the Aegean.

The next few months would be a slow, steady advance for the Roman-Genoese axis. The fleet, split into several squadrons began to patrol and push out the Venetians from the Aegean bit by bit. The chaotic battles and rapid raids that characterized the war remained, but ever so slightly Venice began to withdraw more and more; raids became scarcer and smaller in volume and full on assaults with the attempt of conquest were by end the of year nonexistent. By early 1343, Venice had lost any semblance of control in the Aegean, with even its holdings in the Ionian isles being threatened. With such major obstacles out of the way, the two powers grew confident. They had the effectively succeeded at a major war goal: Pushing the enemy out of the vital Black Sea trade routes and eliminating resistance along the way. Drunk on victory, they began to plan bolder and bolder offensives- a raid on Corfu, on Dalmatia, on Syracuse. But those wouldn’t do. What was needed was a final knockout blow to cripple the Venetians in their entirety before striking the killing blow. And quickly the two powers found their target: The crown jewel in Venice’s empire, Crete.

For the time being it looked as if victory was in sight for the Anti Venetian coalition. The battlefield between the powers was increasingly swinging from the Aegean to the Adriatic and the stresses of war had been taking its toll on their enemies. Venetian ships were spotted less and less, and assaults had become mere raids. Pisa’s navy had been utterly smashed by Genoa as the easing of the Aegean front allowed for more forces to be diverted west. And Aragon still seemed to be mostly disinterested in the whole affair, mainly just loaning ships and arms to its allies in the conflict. It must have seen as if Venice and her allies were trying to delay the inevitable loss in order to exhaust the two, perhaps in hopes of obtaining a more favorable peace? Whatever the case, the writing was on the wall and Rome and Genoa were eager to finish the fight. Eager, and blinded by victory.

What Genoa and Romania hadn’t noticed was that Venice was regrouping and conducting diplomatic negotiations of their own. The war had taken an immense strain and they were well aware the Aegean was lost- most of the raids were designed to slow the inevitable, not reverse them. Instead what had been occurring throughout this time was for the Venetian state was to try to use whatever diplomatic leverage it had to try to tip the scales in the war and back out as much as it can. Emissaries were sent out to to attempt to convince Aragon to put in its full naval strength in this matter. Until this point (approximately spring-summer 1343) the crown of Aragon had been engaged in a limited manner, mostly throwing privateers, a couple squadrons of ships and coin against Genoa, despite the initial enthusiasm espoused by the state. But the merchant republic managed to convince them that this was more dire than they had realized. Athens had fallen, Pisa had been rendered a moot point after a decisive defeat, and Venice had been pushed back to the Aegean with Genoa in striking zone of Sardinia, potentially destroying any thoughts of expanding into the island of Sicily. Aragon was no longer a distant combatant with much to gain and nothing to lose, instead it had the potential to lose some serious prestige and strategic territories. With such pressing matters in mind, the crown scrambled its assets and began to throw her full weight into the war.

Additionally, diplomats were sent out to other potential states that could be sent out to attack either Genoa or Romania. Prospects for this were, less fortunate however. Milan was immediately out of the picture, their strict neutrality in the matters between Italian states was something both parties agreed must remain, lest the Milanese decide to destroy the balance of power in Italy to the detriment of both. The Papal state was calling for an end to the war so that’s not an option. Hungary? Exhausted from its recent wars in keeping the nobility in line and cementing royal power. Naples? Too busy invading Sicily. Bulgaria? Allied to the imperials. Etc, etc. However, there was one major diplomatic success: Serbia. The northeastern neighbor of the imperials had always had designs on its southern neighbor, driven by the latter’s history of wealth and prestige. The recent successes under the great king Stefan V Dusan have both strengthened, enlarged and emboldened the kingdom- but it is not enough: the kingdom is eager for more glories. Stefan, always the astute opportunist, quickly recognized the potential opening and agreed to intervene. The imperials have been bloodied and weakened over the years, and her forces are small. With the right timed attack, there could be massive gains to be made. And so Serbia prepared her host for war.

We then resume with Genoa and Eastern Rome having begun preparations for their boldest strike yet: seizing Crete. The two forces begin to amass the largest single fleet of the war. Easing the pressure from both the Aegean front and the Western one to recruit the largest possible amount of ships available, the swollen armada launched from Romania intent on seizing its prey. Crete, the crown jewel of Venice was to be the greatest victory in the war- a decisive blow that would force the enemy to come to its knees, before the hammer would land on the lagoon-something like that. Back in the real world, Crete would be a decisive victory- a decisively pyrrhic victory.

Why? Overconfidence, bad luck, successful baiting by enemy forces, good command by the Aragonese admiral- take your pick. Point is, that ‘decisive’ attack on Crete ends up with much (perhaps a good 60% or so) of the Roman-Genoese fleet being destroyed, captured or damaged beyond repair. Crete is indeed liberated- and Venice and her allies are unable to recapture from the Cretans- but the alliance is forced into a quick retreat to lick their wounds. It gets better: following this is a well equipped Serbian army advancing southwards into Macedonia without much opposition, pushing (although not as easily as anticipated) through the undermanned and somewhat neglected army of Rome. In a wonderful few weeks, the anti-Genoese coalition goes from teetering on the edge of defeat, to renewing the offensive.

And perhaps in an equally cruel twist of fate, that ‘renewed offensive’ loses steam pretty quickly. Constantinople and Thessalonica are really close by, and their arsenals are up and ready. The wounds are licked, the forces regrouped and the battle lines restabilized. Even Serbia’s advance slows down once it comes to face with armed militia groups and akritoi border guards picking at supply lines and waging guerilla warfare from the mountains. This is then followed up with reserve units from Thrace coming to provide backup and actually managing to score a few victories against the Serbs. (The irony of Dusan being in the same situation Charles I of Hungary had been during his invasion of Serbia was not lost to the Serbian King)

And so, a stalemate returns. Or so one would think. You see, while the lines do seem rather static for a couple months afterward, there’s this one event happens to shatter that fragile balance: In Alfonso’s Castile, King Alfonso XI has died, leaving no legitimate issue, but a host of bastards. It is the final straw in an increasingly unstable period in the kingdom. For Castile, this is a time of terror and woe- but for Aragon, this is opportunity. A matter far, far more pressing and just too good to ignore than what could be gained crippling Genoa: making sure Aragon’s trade volume increases and its pirate’s aren’t harassed. While Aragon never officially removes itself from the conflict, the volume of men, arms and ships coming to aid the war front trickles to a fraction of its volume after the capture of Crete. In practice, the kingdom had decided to cut its losses.

Aragon’s unofficial withdrawal seals Venice’s fate. In the absence of that much needed, er, everything, the republic simply isn’t able to keep up. By early 1356 the Venetian lagoon itself in a blockade intent and its navy has been shattered. Even additional aid from Serbia isn’t enough to divert the pressure as the imperials had managed to mount a successful resistance, driving the Serbs more than once back onto their territory. This was not helped by Serbia being smart enough to quit while it was ahead in exchange for status quo antebellum.

Venice had lost by this point. This everyone knows. Despite the barking of warhawks who would push for a final last stand, cooler heads (and food riots) prevailed. Venice agreed to surrender in exchange for the city itself to be unharmed. Surprisingly, the enemy combatants agreed to this matter, although this was more of a case of ‘invading and subduing the city state would be extremely expensive and bloody and both combatants were pretty exhausted at this point’ rather than a love of their common man and a desire to avoid wartime atrocities. That does not mean in any way Venice got off lightly.

Negotiated by Petrarch and the Milanese government (in the hopes that a ‘neutral’ third party might make negotiations smoother), the terms of the treaty would be a magnitude harsher than what they were in previous trade conflicts.

The treaty’s terms would be as followed:

-Venice would be barred from trading the Black Sea in its totality (this did not bar individual Venetians from trading, mind. Only the state owned Venetian trading company.)
-Venice would have to resume paying commercial dues to Romania they had ‘neglected’ to pay since the days of the Komnenoi.
-The Duchy of Candia (Crete) would receive its independence from the Venetian state. Venetian colonists would be expelled from the island and resettled whereon Genoa and Romania would see fit.
-Euboea was to be recognized as sovereign territory of the republic of Genoa.
-Limits would be imposed on the amount of active wartime vessels Venice would have.
-Romania would be confirmed in her annexation the territories of the duchy of Athens and the Ionian isles. The same with Genoa and Corfu.
-Naxos would be confirmed as territory of the beylik of Aydin.
-Reparations would be imposed to both states, including the transfer of objects looted from Constantinople from the Fourth Crusade.

And there you have it. The conclusion to a very brutal, but formative war in the newest phase of the Roman Empire.

[1] Aragon was a major source of pirates and occasionally privateers in the Mediterranean. I say occasionally as when caught raiding Christians states Aragon denied all involvement to my knowledge, throwing those sailors under the bus to save face. You know, despite sanctioning the sailors and funding them. Anyway the pirates were officially sanctioned as a countermeasure to Muslim pirates in the region, but these men didn’t discriminate on religious grounds. Christian, Muslim, Jewish, Buddhist, Tengri- it didn’t matter. Your cargo is as a good as anyone else’s.
[2] Happened OTL. This is not an attempt to subtly improve the Byzantines’ prospects although one can see how they’d benefit from this. In any case, Galatta is simply too valuable to leave alone, as with one quick strike, the best trading port in the Aegean has just been neutralized.
[3] See post 73
[4] Same guy as OTL.
 

Deleted member 67076

Castile After Rio Salado

In the previous installment, you read about the kingdom of Aragon pretty much abandoning their efforts against the Genoese to invade Castile. While this may sound like leaving the Venetians to their own fate and rather cold, to be fair to the Aragonese it is pretty hard to understate this golden opportunity. You see, when Alfonso XI of neighboring Castile had died, he was leaving a kingdom with no clear successor, but with host of bastards (10 of them in total) vying for control. Each of them were scrambling to find a patron, power base or whatever they can use to outmaneuver their brothers to the throne. A succession war was clearly in the works. The latest in the downward spiral.

But how does that benefit Aragon you might ask? Couple of ways. The obvious is that it weakens Castile, giving Aragon proportionally more influence on the peninsula and of course weakening a potential rival. Another is the potential to go and seize territory during the chaos. The border disputes of Aragon and Castile were… lively, to put it one way and here is a good time to press your claims and get away with it. And yet another reason to invade is to prop up a friendly king. Preferably one that’s pliable… Anyways, point is Aragon had a lot to gain. Far more than wasting ships and men on an annoying stalemate in the Adriatic.

But lets give some backstory first: Why is Castile going so badly?

Well, back in 1341, the Castilians were making a large, costly assault on the Muslim lands. The intent wasn’t conquest per se, but to seize the strategic Strait of Gibraltar, which had, along with other territories such as Algeciras, been part of the Marinid Sultanate and was their primary staging ground for launching invasions on the European continent and beat back a massive Marinid invasion at the time. Alfonso XI realized the strategic value (or wanted a cheap shot at glory, your pick) and realized he needed to obtain these lands. With his allies the Portuguese on one side and volunteers (and loans) from the Papal states on another, Alfonso gathered a massive host by the standards of the day and marched south to destroy the Marinid threat. One army under his direct control would destroy the Muslim forces on land, while his and his allies’ armadas would match the Marinids at sea.

He failed. Disastrously. The initial battle between the was lost decisively thanks to the Marinid Sultan playing a bit more cautiously and keeping his fleet in Algeciras rather than send them back and disengage (the Marinids were kinda short on cash at the time), meaning the Castilian fleet isn’t able to match their enemies, and, thus gets systematically destroyed upon meeting a larger enemy. It gets worse: The army sent to fight the Nasrids gets crushed as the Marinid Sultan, Abu Al-Hasan, feeling more secure with the Castilian fleet eliminated, ferried more troops from the Maghreb to back up the Nasrid forces. Troops are additionally raised by the Moroccans bribing various Rif tribes with promises of plunder and land. With the channel clear, the army gets safely ferried and bolsters the mainland forces.

And here’s where it gets worse: Alfonso’s army was smashed. Brutally. But what you might not have guessed is that Alfonso himself got captured and transferred in custody to Fes as a prisoner of the Sultan, giving the Marinids the upper hand. (Oh and by the way, that relief fleet the Portuguese sent out also suffered pretty badly facing the Corsairs and eventually was forced to withdraw). Meanwhile the combined Marinid-Nasrid army is marching pretty much unopposed in Andalusia and Algarve, looting whatever and whoever they can down south. The Iberians scramble to respond and do manage to raise another army and fleet (the latter paid almost entirely by Papal loans). Eventually the Marinids were stopped outside Badajoz but at that point basically everything south of Seville has been sacked, raided or burned.

So the Sultan agrees for peace; he knows when to quit while ahead. Alfonso returns to his throne, for a heavy price that is. Already having gotten the money he needed, the Sultan wasn’t interested in reparations- he wants land. And he gets it. Most of the province of Seville is lost and many a border town near Granada (pretty much everything up to Jaen more or less) is ceded to either him or the Nasrid Emirate. Portugal on the other hand gets off easy- just a few reparations and most of the shipyards in the Algarve set on fire.

But of course it doesn’t end there. Alfonso returns to find his kingdom in debt to the Pope and his allies. So he has to raise taxes, which lessens his popularity back home. And then the plague comes next. And then his son and heir Peter dies. And a couple of peasant revolts that have to be put down. Eventually, he dies “suddenly and mysteriously” in 1355, leaving Castile with no king and 10 pretenders, which is where Aragon at that point begins to look giddy.

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The World Around Rome

While Romania fell into a period of rest and reorganization following its war with Venice, not all had that luxury of peace and quiet. All around, the nations of the world were undergoing a state of flux; with some waxing and others waning. It is a time of violent clashes and tense struggles, as the cusp of a new age dawns. What one might call the Middle Ages, is undergoing a violent transformation into the modern era. Let us take a moment to bring the viewer up to speed on how things have changed in the brief, fleeting moment the empire is at peace.

Southeast Europe [1]

If there is a word to describe the situation of the Southwest Europe during the latter half of the 1350s and the 60s, it was detente. The previous clashes that had so characterized centuries of policy between the 3 majors states (Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania) of the region had given way to a mutually agreed sentiment of peace. All 3 sides, despite their intense rivalries with each other had felt that it was more beneficial to keep the peace and turn their energies to other matters.

Now you know that the elites in Romania were very wary of spending valued blood and treasure on wars for some uncertain prize of land and fortresses. But that leaves Serbia and Bulgaria? Why did they remain at peace with their each other, and Romania? The simple answer is that there were more pressing matters to attend to, either at home or abroad that made the prospect of warring unwise. For Serbia, there is the looming threat of Hungary, growing stronger each year by the leadership of their young king Louis. Coming on the scene at the head of a shattering realm, Louis (largely) returned the level of centralization that his father’s reforms had started, working hard to cement royal authority along with rebuilding the depleted army. By the 1360s, his work had been mostly completed, and Serbia was increasingly worrying over another round of invasion, this time far larger and more brutal than the previous. Now, it was time to placate her neighbors and ensure the Serbian military was at a state of constant readiness in the event of a sudden invasion.

What about Bulgaria however? Throughout the century, the Tsardom came to deal with the problems of an increasingly independent minded Bolyar class that had started to resent royal authority and were making trouble for Ivan Alexander. Ironically, Bulgaria's economic expansion meant that these lesser nobles now had the funds that allowed them to contest royal authority. This wasn’t helped by the policy of creating what Romania would call ‘despotates’, in which a viceroy under the Tsar’s permission would exercise considerable amount of authority. This was a great short term decision, but a costly long term one that noticeably corroded the power of the central government.

Obviously such a thing had to be dealt with, but the counter efforts of such would inevitably be costly and expend much political will alongside the very likely possibility of spurring revolts by upset nobles. Conventional Wisdom at the time dictated that in order to go about your costly centralization efforts you need a conductive environment for that and of course, the easiest way to do so would be to eliminate the risk of having those who would try to stir the pot. That meant neutralizing outside interference and keeping nobles too busy to fight the changes. To this end, alliances had been made with Serbia and Romania in the 1330s-40s. These were confirmed later in order to buy Bulgaria enough time to hopefully reform. And in this there was success. Ivan Alexander, as the last main accomplishment of his long reign had brought back the tsar’s power. Wasn’t easy, wasn’t fast, but ultimately it was successful.

Now what of the other states in the [Balkans] you ask? Epirus and Achaea? The former is in the process of having its economic integrity destroyed as the Romans continue to dump cheap manufactured goods and grain from the Black Sea and Bulgaria into the region. This doesn’t sound like much as most of the population would be subsistence farmers, but it does hurt the state’s economy and makes it more dependent on her neighbors and imports.

As for Achaea, it continues to be a source of quasi-exile for Neapolitan nobles that have had the misfortune of annoying the central government.

[1] Without the Ottomans, what we know as the Balkans wouldn’t be called that. Instead lets use the nice, neutral name of Southeast Europe, that can conveniently be stretched to include anything south and east of Germany.

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The World around Romania: Anatolia

Anatolia: the ancient heartland of the Roman Empire. Once the powerbase of the ancient state, it has been overrun by various principalities, each one claiming mandate over the others after the implosion of the Seljuq Sultanate. For with the receding of the Mongols comes the receding of whatever shred of authority the Seljuq Sultan had left.

For those wise enough, cunning enough and bold enough, this is the golden opportunity; a boundless frontier ripe for the taking. Who shall take the land of the Rumi? No one knows. There's a host of contenders that could do so. Start taking bets kids.

On paper, the house of Osman is in the strongest position to do so. It is by far the largest of the Rum’s successors, stretching from Ankara to Bursa. Its territory consists of the wealthiest zone of the Roman Empire in Asia. The administration is rapidly shifting from a confederation of tribes united by a strong leader and promises of plunder into a proper state with a modern bureaucracy. The Ottoman army is large, well equipped and fearsome. Its done well for itself in the short decades since its foundation. But this masks a far from an ideal situation. The reality is that while the Ottoman's success have greatly enriched themselves, the transition of the Ottomans has severely alienated the beylik from any potential allies and the lack of Christians to plunder have cut off many would be Ghazi recruits as time went on. The other beyliks fear their larger neighbor, seeing the Ottoman appetite for territory as insatiable. A recent attack on the ailing Karesid beylik has done nothing to assuage that fear. And with that fear comes conspiracy, and with conspiracy, coalitions.

Now while the Ottomans have driven themselves into diplomatic isolation, the Germiyanids have done just the opposite. They've focused their efforts almost entirely on diplomacy. Anatolia is a careful balancing act, it takes considerable skill to manage all the ambitious participants, but Germaniyan has done just that. Keeping good relations (as much as possible given everyone wants all of Anatolia for themselves) with all their immediate neighbors, the House of Germiyan has established itself as a powerful trade nexus in Anatolia and a bastion of stability. Said stability has done wonders for the state.

Lets give some background though. This stability begins with the existing ties of marriage and alliance with Aydin and Saruhan. This sets a precedent for peaceful relations amongst most of their neighbors. But the alliance with the two maritime emirates plays to their advantage:the beylik uses its stability to attract merchants to its roads, shuffling the bulk on inland trade into Germiyan territory. This is combined with policies of tolerance and integration, causing refugees (mostly Christian Greeks) to pour into Germiyan territory for safety and a fresh start, where the emir is quick to use them to his advantage. Anyone with ties to Rum has is put to work at the royal court. Now in the years that follow, this has led a mirror image (of sorts) of Romania start to form.

The burgeoning bureaucracy is fully staffed, gifting the state with far more administrative prowess than all its rivals. Combined with the other policies that state has enacted, a rising power is in the making. Its emphasis on diplomacy grant stability and allies. With that stability comes trade. Trade grants wealth. And with wealth, prosperity. The tools needed to build an empire. But that wouldn't be an empire without a military. To that end, gifts of treasury and womenfolk tie the neighboring tribes and their fearsome cavalry into the system. While consolidation of militias and recruitment drives (with regular payments of coin and land) allow for a small yet well equipped standing army to form. A perverse corruption of the theme system. Eastern Rome would cringe.

At the same time they would probably find Germiyan good news. Somewhat. As the decades pass, the emirs begin to adopt more of their subjects mannerisms, their language and their culture, in turn losing much of their steppe and Turkic ways. Their territory, located just south of the Ottomans, right in the center of the old Komnenian heartland, is primarily "Greek" both in language, ethnicity (i.e, identification) and religion. Initially the emirs had been conquerors, imposing Islam and their Turkic ways. But by the start of the 1370s, the conquerors are becoming the conquered.

Aydin is next on on the list. When we last left off with the beylik, it had started to expand into the waves, establishing control over the duchy of the Isles, commonly known as the duchy of Naxos. The state was, and still remains a valued Roman ally (or lapdog, depending on who you ask). Aydin’s next few years can be summed up as aggressive expansion in everything. In the field of territory, Aydin has pushed its frontiers, south into Mentese and into (after an admittedly pyrrhic victory) Rhodes. In trade, things has similarly been ramped up. A series of trade quarters have been established in Muslim territories all around the Eastern Mediterranean. The volume of trade entering Smyrna has at least doubled as Smyrna becomes a the major trade nexus of goods entering Anatolian (This is in conjunction with their allies, the Germiyanids). In the military, the navy has become an armada fielded by ghazis and opportunists eager for plunder and payment. And finally, in piracy the Aydins have started expanding their operations outside the Aegean to all around the Mediterranean, much to the fury of... well everyone that’s not Romania (who just laughs at their anguish).

Karaman, our final contender in the Game for the Seljuq Throne, is by far the most... orthodox of the beyliks. Its the one beylik that has least diverged from its steppe roots, relying the most on the prestige of the emir and regular bouts of plunder in order to enforce the state’s will. Despite the quixotic nature of such a state, the success is undeniable. Karaman rules the bulk of the Central Anatolian plateau with an iron fist, binding the nomads to the emir’s authority and diverting their energies in the pursuit of replacing the Seljuq sultans as the next major dynasty. For now Karaman is on the upswing, conquering and raiding against its neighbors. However its lack of reform, both militarily and administratively will deeply hurt it in the future.

Moving on, we have the beyliks of Candar and the "Empire" of Trebizond, the Pontic realms. Not much of note is happening within Candar, aside from increasing ties with Saruhan in an attempt to ward off against the Ottomans. The state remains a fairly standard Islamic Polity, with nothing setting it apart aside from being based in a center of trade. But within Trebizond, its apogee is beginning under Emperor Alexios III. Balancing the trading prowess of Genoa with Romania (and later on) Adyin, Trebizond has managed to wrest control and autonomy of its commercial affairs. Alexios III had further increased the power of the state by crushing rebellious nobles and centralizing the state under his absolute power (something Eastern Rome was eager to help their client ruler with). Stability remained the norm in this statelet, granting it a measure of prosperity in a sea of chaos and destruction.

And that concludes the tour of Anatolia. There isn’t much to say about the other principalities that inhabited the plateau. They are simply not important enough to be mentioned and to focus on them would be little more than filler. You just need to know the Mamluks have conquered Armenia minor, establishing a frontier at the Taurus Mountains and have begun to vassalize the easternmost beyliks with punitive military strikes.
 

Deleted member 67076

When we last left the empire, it was at 1356, at the signing of a peace treaty between two conflicting power blocs: A Genoese-Roman Alliance, and a coalition of Venetian led forces. Venice had, to put it bluntly, brutally lost the war and the peace showed. The treaty’s terms were harsh; involving massive losses of territory and a loss of entire markets- the ultimate punishment for a state whose economy rested on trade. But to the winners it was a just revenge (if such a thing is possible) against the centuries of transgressions the enemies had inflicted on them - you decide if that’s the case.

Nonetheless, this victory makes a vital turning point in imperial fortunes, literally and figuratively. For you see the Empire has just gained territory for the first time since 1337 but more importantly with a major rival crippled, the rare breathing room for development that the state so desperately needed was finally there. We of course mustn’t ignore what’s been going on in Serbia and Bulgaria, but its really this- the crippling of Venice- that signals things are improving.

For with the withdrawal of Venice, a void is left. Something Romania will be very eager to replace. There's just so much to gain; all that extra trade, and customs revenue to be made. And as you might expect, that’s what happened. (Genoa also did the same, but the growth was rather slower due to having to rebuild their dilapidated navy and treasury before expanding trade. Compare this to Romania, who didn’t bear the brunt of much of the fighting in the same way the Merchant Republic did)

So what follows is a long economic expansion in Romania stemming from the Romans (partially) taking over Venice’s role as the major trading power in the Aegean and as the secondary trading power in the Black Sea. No longer worrying about the wrath of the Italians, Roman merchants and businessmen began to expand into previously unseen areas. With this expansion of course comes large amounts of wealth, filling the coffers to a level unseen since arguably Michael VIII. The income from trade is then put to use expanding the navy and the dockyards, which expands trade, which in turn brings in more wealth. Additionally, the artisanal sector sees a renaissance; not only are domestic markets able to buy, but the expansion of trade means that the demand for products such as Roman silk or wine begin to rise.

The old focus on areas where the Italians weren’t very active in isn’t forgotten by the empire however, in fact operations into places where competition is less is expanded, particularly in the Maghreb. As the Marinids conquer more and more of the African coast, the more markets the Roman state gets to sell its wares. (In fact, the Roman economy actually begins to start linking itself with the Trans-Saharan economy where the demand for Roman silk is insane, but that’s another story)

From the coattails of this comes a growth in all sectors of the economy, as sailors spend their hard earned income on their homes. At the same time, the state continues its distribution of patronage with infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, baths, etc. But perhaps most importantly are the establishment of financial institutions designed to aid an increasingly mercantile based state: Banks, Counting houses, that sort of thing. Which in turn are taken advantage by well to do yeoman farmers who began to improve their plots, or savvy businessmen looking to grow their profits.

This newfound wealth isn’t distributed equally. Cities are by far the beneficiaries of the next the years of expansion, much to the dissatisfaction of the country folk. It must be noted that yes, their quality of life and per capita income has risen over the years, but that is primarily due to less taxes being levied rather than government investment in their regions. Like with the army, the frontiers have been somewhat neglected. Outside of providing defensive fortifications and the necessary infrastructure to move and supply armies quickly and effectively, the state doesn’t really care about anything else in the frontier. In fact there’s a large amount of support in the government to purposely neglecting the frontiers economic development; it’ll make the empire appear less of a target and reduce raids, enemy forces will have a harder time scrounging off the land, the investment is put to better use in the south where the chance of attacks are much smaller, and so on. Understandably the Zealot philosophy, with its emphasis on equality and prosperity for all had started to entrench itself amongst the rural population, eager for a slice of success. But another reason for the entrenchment of the Zealots amongst the rural poor in Macedonia that geographically, this new wealth tended to be clustered in the south, towards the cities and the coastal regions.

It must be stated that due to the mechanism of external trade, what with the the state’s monopoly and all, that whoever gets paid and benefits from this wealth was tied into a system of patronage within the government. This is not something new- patronage had been a noted part of Byzantine governance since the days of Alexios I, but with the rise of commercial activity and the state trading company becoming one of the principal sources of income for the empire, it was increasingly important to play into the cronyism and the cliques of the system.

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You might be asking yourself, whatever happened to our hero Alexios Apokaukos? What’s he been doing after masterminding the takeover of Eastern Rome and sweeping the forces of reaction out of power?

Here's what happened: Once the Civil War had finished, the admiral had set about to ensure the power of the aristocracy remained broken. For while he had always had plenty of support amongst the reformers in the imperial state apparatus, there was always the fear of stragglers from the old regime launching a countercoup and/or just causing trouble in the future. We must note that since corruption and patronage politics were rampant within Romania at the time, personal loyalties were up in the air whenever a new power came in. Apokaukos had to tread cautiously to make sure his authority remained unchallenged. And that means replacing much of the government bureaucrats with men who shared his views and owed their success to him and him alone (ironic considering he betrayed someone who he in turn owed everything to) in order to make sure that he dominated the patronage system of the court. This process was gradual as to not cause too much harm to the administration, but over a series of years the man had cemented control over the state.

The church was another matter. Ultimately that branch of government was compliant with the new direction of the state for a variety of reasons (church lands were left alone, Patriarch John XIV had been a major proponent of the Regency forces in the civil war, the social welfare of the current government was pleasing to the church and so forth). This is not to say there were no clashes with the imperial government and the church, but for the most part the two saw eye to eye.

Once control had been cemented Apokaukos ran the government as he saw fit. His ideal of “a merchant republic with Roman characteristics” would be the guiding philosophy behind government decisions. As you likely know, Apokaukos was a western minded reformer who believed copying the Italians and their policies would be the key to success. Its hard to understate this. Any necessary reforms were made to fit this ideal. One of ultimately turning the state into a commercial power, for with the money gained from said businesses and trading, Rome could fund the efforts needed to become a superpower once more. The old school Roman philosophy of land and taxes being the key to a strong state were, in his mind, largely obsolete. However, we mustn't think that Alexios Apokaukos ran the state as simply an extension of a business, but its really important to note he was much more obsessed with commercial matters and finances than any ruler had in centuries.

From then on Megas Domestikos split his time between managing the state run trading company and administrating the nation. This state of affairs worked relatively fine until the aftermath of the Third Genoese-Venetian War for as Venice’s withdrawal from the region paved the way for a massive expansion on the navy and the state trading company. However, Apokaukos’ micromanagement tendencies did not erode over the years; he attempted to both government and business an equal amount of effort in ensuring efficiency and profits. Such policies were increasingly taxing on the man, and so he realized he had to delegate power away from himself. Given the choice between Romania’s administration and the navy, the statesmen chose the latter. The navy had always been Apokaukos’ pet project, he himself was the one to pay out of pocket to rebuild the navy from scratch. To part with it would have been too much for the man. On the other hand, the government was filled with his supporters, was reasonably well managed and of course the young emperor, now a man, had been eager to test the waters of his power.

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...We know that Alex has started to work on the navy full time again, and has basically delegated running the government to his supporters, which obviously includes John V. So this is the part where the guy finally takes power?

Yep. Its a nice, smooth transition of power where you see John begins to start managing things. At first little by little, but as time goes on Alexios begins to delegate more responsibilities to him and his circle, and by the end of the 1350s John is pretty much running the show unopposed.

Interesting. Was this something Alexios had planned?

Yes. At this point in time, John’s been basically Alex’s personal assistant for a couple years now, he’s been groomed. So obviously he’s the first choice to delegate running the administration. Also, I should note

Ok, so now that John’s in charge, what’s he like? What’s he do?

In a word: Energetic. John's all about action, and he's a very involved ruler. He takes his job as Roman Emperor with gusto and is very much involved in managing day to day things. Probably something he picked up from Alexios.

And he's like this from day 1. John’s technically been emperor since he was nine, and he’s been raised with that in mind. His entire life up to this point was nothing but a preparation for when he’s calling the shots. So when Alex calls him and starts delegating real power to him, the guy was absolutely anxious to put that newfound power to the test.

With that in mind, the first thing John does is he starts building everywhere. Just like Justinian before him, he goes on a building spree. Roads, aqueducts, forts, grain houses, the arsenal at Constantinople, etc. Everywhere around the empire he starts a series of ambitious building projects, funded by the imperial treasury of course.

Money isn’t an issue?

No, not necessarily. Remember, the empire by this point has started saving up a decent amount of money so this doesn’t strain anyone too much. And of course we have the fact the state is in the middle of an economic boom. That adds up quite a lot.

Oh, ok.

Yeah, so this building spree is mostly concentrated in the recently conquered Duchy of Athens but it does a lot to improve John’s image and integrate the new people. Sure, they might be Orthodox, they might speak Greek and they might have been Roman just a generation ago, but it never hurts to improve the lives of the people. Also makes the guys living just across from the imperials in Epirus realize how good their neighbors in the empire have it, and how bad their own overlords are...

Of course. And this raises another question: Does building up Athens lead into the invasion of Epirus a few years later?

Absolutely. John was very interested in restoring old lands of the empire just like pretty much every ruler in Romania. However, unlike the recent batch of rulers, John preferred to be much more underhanded when it comes to things like this. He liked to plan and he liked to stack the odds in his favor, doing things like weakening the enemy state if he could and getting as much allies as possible.

And here it worked perfectly. In Athens, improving the land did more than just improving the logistics and defensibility of the territory so that armies can move faster; it did a lot to really stir up disapproval amongst the average peasant in Epirus. John hoped that when he invaded, he would get as many defectors as he could to make his job easier.

Along with this there was bribery of the chieftains and other strongmen of Albania into siding with the empire and fermenting revolt, to allow the army to roll over as quickly as possible.

Furthermore, there was with the whole policy that we've mentioned a while back, of weakening the enemies of the state by dumping cheap goods into the region and turning the despotate into an economic satellite. So when the war begins and the supplies stop coming, the enemy state is going to undergo a shock when resources get scarce. With all these factors in play, the empire prepares to invade.

And as we know, it worked perfectly. The empire builds up its armed forces, starts a crisis to justify an invasion and promptly annexes Epirus back into the imperial fold.

[Laughs] I wouldn’t call it perfectly. The Albanians took longer than expected to win over, and sporadic fighting from the former Epirote forces, now brigands, continued the fight from the mountains for a few months after.

Now you’re just being picky.

Its my job as a professor you know?

[Rolls Eyes] Of course it is professor... But yeah, moving on. Its 1362, the Romans have invaded with a flimsy excuse that Epirote tariffs were making trading difficult for their merchants, the recently bloated army rolls in, blah blah, and a combination of all you just said allows the army to seize the land by next year.

...What’s next?

John cements control of Epirus the same way the Romans did Athens. Lowering taxes, building infrastructure, crushing the nobility and other opposing strongmen and divvying up lands amongst supporters. You know the drill by now. Its got multiple benefits: it cements loyalty, it makes a recently conquered region much more profitable, it helps the population grow, and it allows for more people to recruit for the armed forces.

But after that John quits the aggression and starts works hard on diplomacy. The aim is to get Romania be taken seriously as a power again and generally improving relations with other states. So after a few months of planning, he in turn starts delegating power to keep things running smoothly while he's away and embarks on a tour of some nearby states. First off is Hungary, where he and king Louis bond over a mutual dislike of Serbia. Although there is a funny story about Louis refusing to step off his horse to meet the emperor, when John went off his to pay his respects to Louis personally, and the two spent the day arguing over who deserves more respect. Probably apocryphal, but that’s not important. Hungary and Romania agree to trade more as Rome promises Hungary the Dalmatian coast should Venice start something.

After that, the emperor goes off to Bulgaria. There the old Tsar Ivan Alexander and John agree to renew the treaty of alliance signed nearly 20ish years earlier in the civil war of the 1340s. There are also some important trade deals done to cement that, mostly that Romania agrees to start buying more grain from Bulgaria than from anywhere else. If you’re curious, the Romans do follow through with the deal but that’s mostly because right after its signed the Golden Horde goes to hell with civil war and it becomes much easier to get buy Bulgarian. What the emperor doesn't know is that the Tsar is planning to invade Serbia in the coming years and needs to secure his flank. But that isn't important at the time.

Afterwards there comes a set of diplomatic tours of the Italian states, going in order from Naples, Florence, Genoa, Milan and Savoy. Like before, the goal is to make Romania appear better, cement alliances and trade deals. Results here are more… mixed, as Italy is firmly under the Genoese trading dominion but overall its a positive experience. You get things like Genoa and Florence agreeing to set up banks in the empire, a delaying of the inevitable standoff between Genoa and Romania, and an alliance with Savoy in the making.

That’s quite a lot of places. Anywhere else?

It is. And yeah, there’s 2 more places John goes: The Candarid emirate and the Aydinids. This here is a bit different than before: its to negotiate an anti-Ottoman coalition, which if successful would see the partitioning of the Ottoman emirate between the 3 and John would be hailed as the hero who began the reconquest of the Anatolian heartlands. The two emirs agree to it, as they both have their reasons to knock down the Ottomans.

The Balance of power must be maintained and all.

Minor power foreign policy 101.

Would you say these diplomatic tours were a success?

On the whole? Yes. The empire renewed its most important alliances at the time: Bulgaria, the Aydinids and Genoa, and it cemented 2 new ones with Hungary and Savoy. These would prove extremely important in the future. Now it might seem weird that I put Genoa as part of the ‘most important alliances’ group what with hindsight and all we know that Genoa and the empire are going to clash just a few years down the road… but this did quite a lot to ease the growing tensions that were developing from both moving into a zone of competition. The more things are delayed, the more both sides have time to rest and recover.

Then there’s the whole setting up of banks thing which did help the imperials out with their finances as time went on. That’s pretty much the major successes

Oh, ok. That makes sense. Would you say Romania’s reputation improved with this?


Hmm... Not that much, I'd say. I mean, it did for certain countries, but for the general mood in Europe towards the empire… they wouldn’t care too much. Romania hasn’t shown herself as a major power or anything so they won’t put much thought towards ‘that small Greek empire in the east’.

I see. And up next is the war against the Ottomans right?

Not just yet. By the time the emperor is back in Constantinople, it late 1364. The war against the Ottomans starts in 1369, a full 5 years later. Things closer to home take up the attention of the empire before then.

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Countdown to War

6 Years, 3 months [October of 1364]
: Emperor John, Fifth of that Name, arrives in Constantinople after touring the neighbors of Rome in hopes of improving the empire’s diplomatic situation. He is received with much fanfare from the urban mob in the capital. Perceiving the situation in Italy secure, John once more returns his attention to things closer to home. As always, the goals are the expansion of Roman wealth and power.

5 Years: The Roman Empire receives word that Bulgaria has launched an invasion of Serbia with a vast host, apparently with the intent of overrunning the entire kingdom. It appears that Bulgarian Tsar Ivan Alexander had managed to centralize the Bulgarian state and quell the recent independent streak of the Bolyar nobles, thus gaining access to their sizable reserves of levies.

Caught off guard by the sudden invasion of their former allies, the Bulgarians gain immense ground in the initial momentum. As one might expect however, a combination of difficult terrain, contingency plans by the government, and reasonably competent leadership managing to regroup Serbia’s forces have the seemingly implacable advance by the Bulgarian forces slow down to a crawl. This of course, does not end the advances, but turns the invasion into a meatgrinder as Serbian forces resort to their specialty of asymmetrical warfare against a numerically superior forces.

Mid summer however, things go south for the Serbs. When the news reaches Buda that Serbia is under attack, King Louis of Hungary readies his levies and prepares for war. A hasty expedition is sent out to invade Bosnia- mostly to probe the region’s defenses but it of course is a sign of things to come. Louis has come to regain his patrimony and avenge his father.

Emperor John initially does nothing, adopting a wait and see attitude, but puts Macedonian troops on standby in case there is an opportunity.

4 Years: The winter this year is particularly brutal, causing severe attrition amongst Bulgarian forces deep in Serbian territory. It does not stop the Bulgarians, but allows a breather for Serb armies. Come spring, that sense of relief turns to dread; Bosnia is invaded by the Hungarians once more. Unlike before, the Hungarians have not spread their forces thin and take extra precaution with regards to their supply lines. At the same time, Serbia cannot spare as much men as it can thanks to a two front war. Like lava, the Hungarian advance is slow yet unstoppable.

With Serbia quickly crumbling, the Romans act, hoping to capitalize as much as they can. Initially sending several contingents of troops to occupy several border forts, Rome ceases its invasion and sends king Stefan V an ultimatum: A cessation of lands that would total the historic territory of Duklja or Romania would continue its advance. Such demands were harsh and in any other circumstance unreasonable, but faced with the possibility of a third front by what appears to be a regional power, king Stefan acquiesces.

Unfortunately this is not enough to save the poor Serbs, and the kingdom is left a rump of its former self by year’s end. That said, it is worth noting the kingdom fought valiantly against its many invaders, giving both of them a black eye and a mountain of casualties when it was all said and done. In August, peace is restored, but at a heavy cost. Serbia is left at best a buffer state between Hungary and Bulgaria.

3 Years: Romania’s gains are not so easily digested. Unlike before, where the territories gained have been largely Greek speaking, Orthodox and part of the Roman state a mere generation before, the Duklja region is only one of those. But a common religion is not enough to change the common perception that Rome is an invader, not a liberator. This of course doesn’t even go into the empire’s reputation the empire amongst nobility…

And so rebellion begins.

This is put down, but at a surprising cost to Roman forces. Despite what one would think, the establishment sees the issue as one of numbers, not of strategy. Roman doctrine has been the same for nearly a century, and nearly all the complaints on the ground have been that the problem is one of lack of men and equipment. Inertia is a powerful thing, and so when assessing the situation on the ground, it is deemed that these two problems are the root of the issue.

With the money and additional territories gained in the past few years, Rome attempts to rectify this while the crises in Duklja dies down. Issues are given out to increase the size of the armed forces, particularly the standing army that’s is considered to more mobile and reliable than the standard militia troops. By the time war with the Ottomans begins, the Roman army would have numbered to nearly 20,000 troops, albeit only ~9,000 of them would be considered professional troops. The reason being is cost, its far more cheaper to raise militia troops than full on soldiers, (the bulk of the increased income has been delegated to the navy, and John V is too influenced by Alexios Apokaukos to change the payroll for now). That said, one must laud the Romans for their scrupulousness on providing equipment and maintaining logistics.

While the army bloats in size, Duklja is pacified through a combination of bribery, force of arms, land redistribution, investment and old fashioned population exchanges.

1 Year, 5 months: With all Christian territory under control of Muslim elites in Anatolia, the Ottoman Emirate turns its attention at fellow Muslim principalities as targets for expansion. Currently, one of the targets is the nearby Beylik of Saruhan, a small yet relatively prosperous state in the Anatolian coast. For the time being, most 'attempts' of expansion are redirecting allied tribesmen of Anatolia to raid their neighbors in the hopes of weakening the state enough so that when the actual, professional army of the Ottomans is sent in, its mostly cleanup duty. What makes this state particularly of interest to Romania is that it is the northern neighbor of the Aydinid Emirate, and the ruling bey is a close ally of the Aydinids and the Germiyanids. Raids begin in earnest that year, with the intent of weakening the state before the army is sent in to finish the job.

News of Ottoman aggression spread throughout Anatolia. Already unnerved by the massive expansion of the Ottomans in a mere generation, the other emirs begin to prepare their defenses against the northern colossus. Aydin and Saruhan renew their alliances and begin talks with Germiyan and Candar for a potential strike against the Ottomans. Candar agrees, but Germiyan adopts a ‘wait and see’ attitude. The Ottomans are much less a threat to them than the other beyliks, and they do not wish to risk a potentially long and messy war.

Additionally, the emir of Aydin sends out a request to the emperor in Constantinople for aid against the Ottoman threat. Aydin might have a reasonably powerful navy, but its army is small. Romania on the other hand has a numerically impressive army that continues to grow. John agrees to join the makeshift coalition, and begins preparations to fight against the Ottomans. Together with the Saruhan, Aydin and the Candarids an official alliance is formed.

1 Year: As part of the negotiations, Constantinople asks that the Turks delay their war plans for 2 years, as Romania plans to expand her arsenal and finish off her military reorganization. The other states agree to this condition but are still wary of what to come.

In order to mollify the Turks that Rome is not abandoning, John agrees to hire several bands of Italian condottieri to defend against the Ottomans. These troops are stationed in the Saruhan frontier and are do well to counter the raids by various tribesmen. However, they do tend to clash with the locals almost as much as they do with the Ottomans due to issues of culture, religion and language.

3 months: This does not endear the Saruhan state. Protests from locals are common and as increasingly frequent time goes on. Eventually they just have enough of the mercenaries and disband them, despite protests from the Roman officials overseeing them- for good reason. The condottieri, who have not been paid recently, decide to take their dues from the Saruhan and begin pillaging the countryside, causing massive amounts of destruction. Forces are sent in to smash the mercenaries and restore order.

2 months: Ottoman Emir Suleiman I received word from his brother Murad that the Saruhans have disbanded their mercenary army. Taking this as a sign of weakness (as it is likely the emirate didn’t have the money to pay the soldiers, Suleiman orders the army to mobilize and march southwest. The time for campaigning has started.

1 month, ~3 weeks: The government at Constantinople receives word that the mercenary troops have gone rogue and scramble for damage control. A naval squadron is hastily assembled to deal with this issue before it gets out of hand.

10 days: Ottoman troops arrive in Saruhan territory, where they meet up (and clash) with the mercenaries. Exhausted from fighting the Saruhan troops, they are quickly routed by Ottomans.

6 Hours: An Ottoman army encounters the garrison at Demirci, one of the major cities of the Saruhan beylik and attempt to capture the city, beginning the first battle of the War of the Manisa League (named after the Saruhan capital Manisa, where most of the negotiations were conducted).

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The War of the Manisa League

Imagine for a moment you are a high ranking administrator; someone in the upper echelon of the bureaucracy in the Roman Empire as of 1369. Imagine that you’re looking over the reports about the stockpiles of equipment and men and ships; military matters and what not. You know, logistics.

As you peer through the piles and piles of paper (courtesy of those fancy new paper making things the department had recently imported- probably from Egypt or Italy, but you’re not exactly sure. Doesn’t really matter) you might be feeling good about the state’s prospects.

You see that on paper the empire has a decently sized army of ~16,000 men- of which at least 3, maybe 4 and half thousand or so are professional troops. The specific numbers don't’ matter; they never do. You’ve been working long enough to realize that things on paper never match the reality on the ground. But still, these are numbers that you can take some pride in. Especially when you hear the older workers talk about about how bad things were a mere 20 years ago, or when the civil war was raging on.

You continue looking through the reports. You see the navy has a good 30 or so warships. You see the Marines have over 3,000 men in their service. That the navy, combined with its trading ships totals up to almost 100 vessels. Not bad. Looking at these statistics, you’re confident that the navy is better than anything your neighbors have, or any of your rivals- except for Genoa. But who cares, they’re on our team. That alliance is still ongoing, despite some news about Roman sailors bickering with the Italians over trade or something. Again, doesn’t matter.

All in all though, things look great. And you just know this is the force that’s going to liberate Nicaea in a few years, that’s going to retake the Anatolian homeland from the infidels. And of course they will. You’re sure of it. Rumors are everywhere that emperor John is mobilizing and getting ready to strike. The hiring of mercenaries, the alliances, the increase in shipbuilding- all the signs are there. Once emperor John gives the word Romania is gonna march back into Nicaea, smash the Turks, and reclaim her lost lands and continue the new Golden Age.

...Imagine your shock two year from now when you read reports that 7,000 men have died trying to support your allies against the Ottoman onslaught. That the Turks are on the verge of overrunning the empire’s Saruhan allies and have routed a Candarid army.

If the first thought in your mind was ‘What the hell just happened?’, you’ve accurately described the mood of Romania a year into the War of the Manisa League. The empire went in with the thought that there would be little challenge; war against the Ottomans would be quick and one sided. And for the first year, they were half right. It would be one sided… in the Ottomans’ favor.

This was not an unreasonable development; the recent upswing in luck of the past 2 decades had seen the empire stop her century long financial crisis, regain territory lost to it since the reign of Andronikos II and finally ended the diplomatic isolation the state faced amongst her neighbors (and replaced it with the near unbelievable rage in the more feudal areas of Europe, but eh, out of sight and out of mind. Who cares what barbarians think?). To nearly every person in the empire, Romania looked like it was invincible. Or close to it.

Of course this image was going to be shattered once reality hit. In hindsight, sending an army that was primarily made up of militia troops into an area far outside their comfort zone in hostile territory against hardened professional troops is insanity. But hey, overconfidence is a hell of a drug. What can you do?

But, lets get into the war itself. As you know, the first year of the war would be a time of nearly unopposed Ottoman expansion. On the western frontiers, the Ottomans had managed to expand against the coalition’s armies. The outnumbered Saruhanids and its allies looked like they could only delay the seeming inevitable push of Ottoman forces. That while the Ottomans hadn’t the manpower to match the coalition, they had superior troops, excellent equipment, excellent commanders, had planned this out, and weren’t plagued by squabbling and half-hearted efforts to mobilize troops.

Now fortunately for the coalition, the Candarids were having much better progress. Having joined the war effort several months after the war proper began, for reasons officially unknown (although one could probably suspect if the Candarids wanted to use the coalition to test the strength of the Ottomans before deciding to commit to this war) Sultan Suleyman wasn’t aware that his northern neighbor had been part of the alliance against him, and was quite shocked aback when Candarid forces began capturing towns in Bithynia. The Candarids, able to amass a force numbering nearly 20,000 soldiers (including cavalrymen) had startled the Beylerbey to recall much of his army and their commander (his brother) Murad from the western front to deal with the Candarids. The remainder were given orders not to press further and instead hold the newly occupied lands, lest they too need to be recalled. This gave the western front the breather it needed to regroup and reorganize.

Within a few months the situation had once more changed and the western coalition was on the offensive. From both Aydin and Romania troops were sent in to reinforce the Aegean front while the navy was hard at work to help coordinate actions between the 3 powers and attempt to choke whatever naval trade the Ottomans received. Needless to say, Genoa was not pleased, but took no real action against the coalition.

As one might expect, Romania had to strip much of her reserves to help support the war effort, in addition to recruit mercenaries- an unpopular decision. Nearly all of the professional troops from back home went in to reinforce the Aegean front, but a few contingents (nothing more than a few hundred) did came to support the Candarids. Meanwhile, the freshly hired mercenaries were sent to the front to attack the Ottomans as quickly as possible.

What followed was a year long stalemate that tested the debate between quality against quantity. One the one hand, the Ottomans may have had superior, well equipped troops and were fighting on familiar terrain but on the other, they were often facing forces more numerous than their own. Well aware of this, Suleyman and Murad attempted to avoid pitched battles, while the Manisa league eagerly tried to force the Ottomans in. Unfortunately, whatever pitched battles that happened were usually victories for the Ottomans and with heavy casualties for the Manisa league.

Things got worse for the League. The next year would see the near decimation of Candarid forces in battle and the fragile stalemate being broken in the north. By August of 1372, Janissaries were sieging the walls of Sinope. Fortunately, a combination of Roman marines and the remainder of the Candarid army were able to help repulse the invaders, with (for once) heavy losses on the Ottomans’ part. This had a galvanizing effect on morale, and the ensuing weeks saw some of the gains by the Ottomans reversed granted the Beylik of Candar would never see her former lands completely restored in this war. Regrettably the western front was worse, with a grinding and fluid border that saw neither force make much headway. However, unlike the Candarids the Ottomans at one point did manage to take the Saruhanid capital, razing it and killing the ruling Bey and his family. The realm was briefly turned plunged into anarchy, but Ottoman occupation (and subsequent Imperial and Aydinid co-occupation) managed to restore order quickly if brutally.

By 1373, it had seemed the Manisa league was exhausted. Roman losses totaled well over 10,000 and the Candarids well over that. Saruhan was still mostly occupied and Aydin wasn’t in much of a position to do anything. Something had to be done to finish the war on favorable terms.

And luckily, was one option available but… well… it was a very uncertain gamble. You see, if one were to look closely, it was known that the Ottomans were also exhausted. Very exhausted. Troops movements were even more cautious and attack forces that once numbered near a thousand were now just a few hundred. Attacks by Janissaries were very rare, if unheard of by this time in the war. Therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that should another major battle be forced with heavy losses for the Ottomans, the league's own armies (whatever remained of them) would be unopposed as they marched to Bursa. But again, a very risky deal.

Emperor John, ever the ambitious man, decided to go for it, despite complaints by his advisors. Regardless of everything that happened, Romania hadn’t really lost much of anything, (discounting men, money and pride) and thus wasn’t in any danger of invasion by the Ottomans. However… the political ramifications of abandoning the allies of the empire in their time of need would be insane, so that couldn’t be done. Again, a very risky and tense situation. Fortunately events conspired to give the empire yet another break.

To the north the aging Tsar Ivan Alexander had died in early 1372 of a recurrence of plague, leaving the Bulgarian empire to his eldest son Michael who faced a potentially dangerous situation. See, under the efforts of his father, the Bulgarian state had managed to reverse its trend of decentralization, bringing the wily nobles under the jackboot of the monarchy. As one might expect, this wasn’t very popular for them, and rebellion was simmering. Ever astute, Tsar Michael knew he had to eliminate or at least neutralize the threat, and he had found an excellent excuse in Romania’s war. Should he offer his services to his brother in law (one John V of Romania), Bulgaria could send its more rowdy elites to die in some far off war and allow Michael the peace of mind needed to continue his father’s work. And should they actually manage to come back, they would find their estates weaker than in when they had left.

And so a message was dispatched to the emperor in Constantinople, informing him that Bulgaria sought to aid against the infidel (as was the popular opinion at the time of John’s war). John readily accepted and sent the messenger off as soon as possible. It was an offer simply too good to refuse. For John, this was an opportunity to attack the Ottomans in pitched battle while having the bulk of his troops out of harm’s way. And of course, refusing the offer of a brother in law to aid him in his service for God would look… difficult, despite the potential complaints that this made Romania look weak.

When the messenger returned to Michael the tsar immediately began preparing an army, using whatever excuse he could to press as many of the Bolyars into joining the war. Some stayed as that was inevitable, but the Tsar was successful in raising a decently sized army, roughly around 7,000 men or so, composed of many nobles and their retainers. By May, the Bulgarian army was ready and amassed at Varna where the Roman fleet was ready to transport them.

Michael’s plan worked masterfully. A combined army of Bulgarians, Romans, and other allied Turks marched from Sinope straight towards the Ottoman capital at Bursa. In desperation, the Ottomans pulled back everything they could and marched towards Bursa to meet the enemy. Once more pitched battle was inevitable, and this was just what the coalition wanted. The ensuing Battle of Bursa was an extremely bloody affair that saw heavy casualties on both sides and the death of the great general Murad, but it was ultimately a victory for the Manisa league. The city was promptly seized and taken in September. Suleyman Bey, knowing he was matched, sued for peace.

Peace saw the return of all unoccupied land and cessions of territory from the Ottomans towards all members of the coalition (sans Bulgaria, who was content with just looting as much as they can). As one might expect, the Empire and the Candarids took the most territory, seeing as they had done the bulk of the work. The Saruhanids, with their ruling bey and his sons having been slain in the defense of their land, had their territory peacefully divided between Romania and Aydin.

The Ottomans may have been crippled, but like many times before in Roman history, the fall of one enemy would lead to the rise of another, more powerful force. Before the ink was even dry, the neighboring Germiyanids launched an offensive against the more powerful Ottomans. Exhausted from a brutal war, the Beylik could do nothing against the onslaught of its new foe. In the years to come the Ottomans would be left a rump state, vassalized and at the mercy of the new power in Anatolia: The Germiyanids.

Once more, on paper the empire seemingly won big. It had regained land in Asia, lost for nearly a century now. But the army had been shredded, a good chunk of its treasury had been spent and her pride torn asunder. Weakness had been shown, and once more Romania was faced with the thought of facing disaster. For while the Ottomans had no chance of realistically invading and conquering, what of the Bulgarians? Or the Neapolitans? Or the Hungarians? Yet again, reform was needed.

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Romania came out of the war both a winner and a loser. The first step in reclaiming the Anatolian heartland had commenced, with the frontier once more reaching the Sakarya river. Her prestige had swelled with the victory over the Ottoman Beylik. Her major rival in the east had been utterly obliterated. Any threat to the newly gained territories was, at the time being, either pacified or exhausted. And lastly positive relations had been confirmed with several of the Turkish beyliks, giving new opportunities for business. That’s the good, now here’s the bad: Rome also had her army smashed to bits and military weakness displaced to the whole world; it had her allies battered, her northern neighbor indirectly strengthened, her treasury drained, and her manpower dipping. Despite much posturing about how the empire has improved, it was self evident to nearly everyone of value that Romania would have to undergo a new round of reforms. She had neglected that very thing that made her last for so long against all odds: the army. And so as soon as the ink was dry on the peace treaty, Emperor John V authorized the creation of a vast new army from the ground up. Romania was to have match, no exceed the Ottomans- 20,000 men were to be at her disposal at all times, ready to defend and advance the empire’s interests.

Of this new army was to be a core of professional, full time soldiers. Disciplined troops that would be mobile and on call at all times followed by (like the army of Constantine I before them) a series of supplemental regiments that would be drawn in from a wide variety of sources: Militia troops, mercenaries, auxiliaries, reserve units, allied nomadic Turkish tribes (although this won't be the case for the first few decades) and even repurposed naval soldiers. But lets slow down for a bit: What’s this new army corps made up of? How are they recruited? How are they paid? What are they equipped with? And most importantly, how are they trained? Essentially, what’s the profile of Rome’s land forces?

The answer is that the army was a mix, as always. A mix of what Romania had seen to be successful on the battlefield in recent times: the Janissaries, the Condottieri, the Heavy Cavalry of the Bulgarians, light cavalry of the Golden Horde and so forth. The bulk of this new army (around ⅔ of the men usually) were infantry units, normally on the heavier side with regards to armor. The ‘standard’ soldier would be protected by lamellar armor and mail that was common amongst Middle Eastern soldiers (mostly the latter). The remainder of the professional forces would be a mix of cavalry and other supplementary units.

One might wonder ‘why Lamellar armor?’ Why not the plate armor that was common in the west?

The answer to that is simple: Money. Or rather, the lack of it. And this is going to be a repeating point with the remainder of the army reforms, so please, forgive the redundancy. Basically, Rome is perennially short on cash. Now I know what you’re thinking: Wait a minute, what about the Renovation? And all that trade money? And then the expanding? That should amount to something, right?!

To which the answer is: "Well... yeah, but that’s not enough." Recent events, both within and outside Romania have done much to prevent the Romans from getting the necessary funds they need.

-First off, the war with the Ottomans. Expensive and long. Ultimately net loss in the treasury for the first few years despite the accomplishments in geopolitics.

-Second, infrastructure and vanity projects in the European part of the empire. Trying to revitalize Greece is also expensive, and long investments that take a while to pay off.

-Third is the recent slowdown in economic growth: Since the mid 1350s the Roman economy has been massively growing thanks to an expansion in imperial trade and manufacturing. With this there has been a feedback loop that has led to (by 14th Century Roman standards) absolutely massive economic growth. The thing is, most of that has been (wisely) reinvested into the empire it doesn’t leave too much on hand. This has been compounded by the fact that the 1360s have been a slowdown in growth (basically, the ‘vacuum left by Venice’ has been more or less completely filled and new opportunities haven’t shown up) and a time of rising prices thanks to instability along the Silk Road, in turn caused by the Golden Horde’s civil wars (and later the war with Timur).

-Fourth, the fortification of the Asian provinces: With the memory of the last outposts in Asia being overrun by the Turk, Romania vowed never again to let such a thing happen, and took steps to enforce this. From the border at the River Sakarya to the Marmara, an extensive series of forts, roads, warehouses and army camps were established to make sure the territory was thoroughly secure. Settlers were also encouraged from back in Europe were encouraged to settle the territory with various tax breaks to ensure the loyalty of the region (Yes the areas is still Hellenic but the empire isn’t taking any chances). Ultimately a short to mid-term money sink.

-Fifth, the Roman army had large amounts of mercenaries: Some lessons are never fully learned it seems. [1] Despite the warnings of many in the older generations about the preference of an entirely native army, the regime once more turned to using large amounts of mercenaries (anywhere between 3-5 thousand at any time) as they’re skilled yet easy to replace soldiers that would help fill in the vacuum on the numerical disparity until the native army is replenished and of course would serve as advisors and trainers in the armed forces. [2]

All of these factors mean that there despite the ambitious goals, there isn’t that much money to divert to this new army. And of course the actual ‘arming’ and ‘training’ part means that the military is a big ticket item that just simply can’t be given a blank cheque. Its worth noting at this point (1370) that while Romania has likely been probably making more than double the money in 1330 [3], that’s still much less than pre Fourth Crusade, which is in turn much less what the state was collecting in the days of Manuel. The new conquests in Asia will very much help alleviate the costs in the future, but again, those fortifications mean that this won’t be within the next few years.

So corners must be cut somehow. The traditional solutions: raising taxes and implementing austerity aren’t considered because A) that would risk upsetting the imperial government’s hard earned popularity thanks to low taxes being the norm and B) the investments are seen as critical to the empire’s future (and also inertia, popularity, wanting to keep up the image of a rich and splendid state- those things)

Now how do they do it? Part of this is in the quality of equipment, as seen above. Part of it is also in payment- about half the payment of the new soldiers is in land, the rest in coin. And another part is in the timing of recruiting- rather than trying to get all 20,000 soldiers at once, the empire goes for gradual increases in its armed forces over the next 2 decades. And finally, the last major thing Romania does is that it starts quietly borrowing money from Italian bankers. The idea is that once the various projects the empire has are completed in the near future, the money no longer going to them will be enough to quickly pay off the loans and Romania will have finished everything nice and quietly. Of course, nothing is ever nice when it comes to finances as the empire would find out when dealing with Genoese Loan sharks...

[1] This isn’t to say the Romans weren’t self aware- Mercenaries were kept highly dispersed amongst native forces to make the likelihood of a Catalan company situation slim to zero and were encouraged to convert to Orthodoxy, to take native wives and settle the country, with the hopes this would increase loyalty. Additionally the numbers of mercenary units were gradually increased along with the armed forces to again, avoid that period critical weakness where the mercenaries might think twice about serving the empire instead of extorting it. Finally, the hired soldiers were almost always given the most dangerous jobs and stationed at the most dangerous posts, like the Macedonian and Anatolian frontiers.

[2]: As you can probably guess, this is where the western influence comes in and we see Romania adopting more western style tactics such as the use of longbows (which work great against horse archers trying to raid) Interestingly, despite the influence amongst the army’s tactics stemming from the Italian Condottieri mercenaries, most of those serving in Romania were of English and French descent. And that’s because the *Hundred Years war between England and France is entering another peace treaty at this time, leaving a glut of soldiers without work and eager for jobs. Romania decided to capitalize on this and hired various mercenary bands.

[3] Definitely less than 1 million Hyperpyra.

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When we last left off the Roman Empire was solidifying its control over its recently reconquered Anatolian holdings. The army had rebuilt from the ground up, an absolutely massive fortification program had been started around the Sakarya frontier and of course, the age old practice of settling the frontier from the heartland was once more in effect. Such methods were expensive and time consuming but the empire was able to pay them off thanks to its sustainable economic growth (despite the slowdown of recent years), its increased tax base and various loans from Italian banks based in Florence and Genoa. This was in 1370.

Let’s fast forward a bit. The year is 1393. Romania is currently reeling from an unprecedented economic recession, thereby being forced to drastically and suddenly put on hold on its construction boom and infrastructure investments of the last few decades. Fortunately, most of such projects have been completed, including the utterly extensive set of fortifications alongside the Anatolian frontier. However, this still leaves a huge problem. The decades since the Second Palaiogoi Civil War had seen spending increase dramatically and now there was not enough money coming in to manage that upkeep. In response, the empire went through hurried attempts at austerity in order to keep a positive balance. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Why is Romania in such drastic straits?

The answer to this (like many other problems in the coming future) is due to the warlord Timur. During the 1380s Timur had spent his time building up his power base with the attempt of preparing an invasion of Persia, supposedly to reunite the Mongol Empire in the wake of the Ilkhanate’s demise. To this end he undertook the task of aiding his northern neighbor reunite the Golden Horde under the Khan Toqtamysh. Now here comes the problem: When Toqtamysh heard of Timur’s planned invasion of Persia Timur went from a loyal ally to a rival that needed to be undercut. Persia was nice, weak and divided. A juicy target for a empire in search of plunder and glory. Toqtamysh could not tolerate competition and promptly declared war, believing the resources of the newly unified Golden Horde would be enough to challenge whatever resources Timur could have amassed. Stupidity in challenging Timur aside, this was a decently sound proposition. The Unified Horde *did* have quite a lot of men it could throw at whatever problem it faced.

Regardless, Toqtamysh then attempted to corner the warlord near the Volga in an ambush but predictably this failed. The Golden Horde’s forces were defeated. No that’s not right, more like pummeled, crushed, slaughtered. You get the picture. As expected, Toqtamysh died ignobly resisting the force of nature that was Timur. Casualties were massive on the Golden Horde's side. So massive, that with that the Golden Horde effectively ceased to exist. The head of the snake had been cut off. And with no Khan to rule the steppes, a power vacuum appeared, plunging the steppes into chaos until a power would arise.

More importantly, the massive chaos on the steppes caused a massive disruption to the Silk Road trade, which in turn crippled the Black Sea trade. Goods from the East stopped flowing into the major trade nexuses of Constantinople, Azov, Trebizond and Crimea. This was further aggravated when Timur decided to punish the Golden Horde and go on a sacking spree of the major cities for an additional insult to injury.

But back to Romania.

With the trade routes cut off, income from trade trickled to a crawl, causing a massive fiscal crisis back in Constantinople. While it is indeed true that Rome had pursued commercial activities in many other parts of the world such as the Eastern Mediterranean and the North African Coast, the Black Sea had always been the first and foremost sector of trade and therefore provided the bulk of income from commercial dues. And now that was gone.

Panic ensued.

----

It cannot be underestimated the cutoff of trade in Romania during the crucial period following the effective end of the Golden Horde as a unified state. As much as perhaps 60% of all commercial income was obtained through the vital Black Sea nexus, primarily through ports owned or influenced by the Golden Horde.

Now you might be asking, why didn’t they just trade with Georgia? Or with Trebizond? Well… they did. It just didn’t end up making a large portion of the budget as few Roman traders dared to go there. You can blame the reason on the fact that over the decades the Genoese had gained near absolute monopoly on the commerce of these parts. And they did not tolerate competition. Often a trade ship would find itself prey to ‘pirates’, ‘bad fortune’ or just blatant raids by Genoese ships. Normally this would provoke retaliation, but such was the need to stay on the good graces of Genoa that Romania’s state trading company [1] decided to merely stick to the Golden Horde’s territory. There, The Horde ensured no one state would have a monopoly on commerce, making it a safe place for to invest in commerce.

But now the Horde was in chaos. Timur’s attack and follow up campaign north had majorly disrupted the traditional routes of commercial flow since the establishment of the Mongol Empire over 2 centuries earlier. Less coin stopped filling the coffers of Constantinople.

Ok, so trade has slowed to a crawl. Why not just use the money saved up to whether this crisis? Why is this so bad?

The answer is because at the time the empire was on a spending spree. A very big one.

Attempting to undo the economic ruin caused by the Crusader States of Greece, recentralize the state, patronize the cities to ensure the government was still strong, rebuild and repopulate Anatolia while recreating an army from scratch is very expensive. Doing it while keeping taxes low, allowing the Church to remain with a rather loose leash and while generally having a lighter hand on the lower classes is very, very, very expensive. Actually even before the crash such was the spending that Romania began to borrow money from Italian bankers (primarily Genoa and Florence) just to keep up the pace of spending. Economic Growth and internal state revenues were simply not enough to keep pace with costs. Thus the crash was swift and brutal.

In a mere 4 months the coffers were once more near bankrupt. The word panic has been thrown around quite a lot but that’s simply the only way to describe the mood in the state. The aging John V, deeply distressed and inexperienced at managing economic problems, due to his own limited training of economics and simply authorized with slashing spending whenever possible. This impromptu austerity fell overwhelmingly on the civilian sector; John refused to ignore the military (rightly) believing that his soldiers and/or his mercenaries would become a liability should they stop being paid.

This was both a good and bad idea. While the obvious benefit was yes, the government was indeed spending less money -and at first it seemed the budget was becoming manageable- this came with a huge drawback. It increased what we would call unemployment. The vast majority of projects the government employed what ‘day workers’, that is, temporary workers hired from the urban poor or countryside to take part in whatever task was needed to be completed. Could be construction on a building, could be land clearage, could be constructing roads. Also could be workers hired on government owned farms and what not. Point is, whatever projects that were in the making were suddenly and without notice put on hold. Of course, this might have saved the government money but it disenfranchised thousands of people who came to depend on these jobs for their livelihood. Once more, poverty rose. Poverty leads to angry citizens. Angry citizens who like to riot over bread and their livelihood.

That’s not all however. In cutting spending, salaries were slashed on government workers, including bureaucrats. This was perhaps one of the most dangerous policies that the regime decided on. Romania’s bureaucracy since the Second Palaiologoi Civil War had rapidly grown in size, power and reach. The rise of commerce had come with a rise in the need for recording transactions and the last Civil War granted the Bureaucracy a place of unparalleled prestige. Combined with the networks of patronage, clientelism and cronyism, this turned the previously neglected and emasculated institution into the third power bloc of the state, just behind the military and church in its influence. It gets even worse when you realize that the demand for educated workers to managed the endless flow of information gave them an additional bargaining power.

Pissing this off was a bad idea.

Upon receiving the news that salaries were to be cut, the bureaucrats simply ‘re-interpreted’ the order on reducing their salaries to reducing that of the military budget, of whom there was currently an inter factional rivalry thanks to recent government patronage (Yes its stupid and petty but this is Rome). The long story short of this is that soldier were not getting their salaries, receiving much less than promised, there was less money in the budget, military plans were not carried out as effectively, etc. Do note that mercenaries in the service of The Empire were not affected by this as they were paid from the Emperor directly in order to promote loyalty.

But I digress; back to the chaos at hand. When you have such a volatile mixture the situation becomes very hectic. You’ve got angry peasants who are starving, angry soldiers, a worldview of social welfare entrenched into the population and a government that appears to do nothing to alleviate the struggles of the common folk. Add in one of the more brutal winters in the 1394-5 period and it boils over; the Urban Mob in Constantinople explodes into waves of rioting. Out in the countryside we see isolated peasant revolts, and in major cities Zealots of Thessalonica, long since faded into minor radical religious groups (That the Orthodox church had tried to co-opt or get rid of) once more rise into prominence attacking the imperial government and calling for a renewal of the status quo and a redistribution of wealth.

Continuing, things once again get worse. Unpaid soldiers begin to join in with the unorganized mobs and revolts of dissent in European Romania. What was once small, local riots begin to coalesce into rebellion, led by charismatic figures eager to take advantage of the situation. Promising bread, coin and safety, they vow to take the fight against a corrupt government that has forgotten why they were put in power in the first place.

Romania, free of internal civil strife for an unprecedented 53 years, descended into civil war once again.

[1] Recall that the State has a monopoly on external commerce upon following the Venetian model. Therefore, trading is done via a state owned company, not unlike how guilds within a city would dominate a local industry.
 

Deleted member 67076

The defections and revolts came as a shock to the imperial establishment. Decades of (supposedly) tight control over the establishment had seen the government lose its experience with matters of civil strife and thus the initial response to the defection of field armies was sluggish and taken lightly. In hindsight this was terrible as it allowed rebels time to organize their power base and expand.

They number approximately 11,000, the size bolstered by angry, unemployed citizens eager to take arms and plunder to enrich themselves. The profile of this faction is largely based in the western, poorer regions of the empire of Macedonia and northern and inland Hellas and as such this is the region that they quickly seized from imperial authorities. Led by a loose coalition of generals, Zealot affiliated priests and other charismatic individuals, all united in a common hatred of the current economic depression.

Meanwhile in Constantinople, the aging, stress filled and increasingly frail emperor John V abdicated and retired to a monastery, finding it easier to throw this issue to the next generation rather than take control. His rule had seen him with virtually no experience in dealing with military matters. Still, ruling from age 9 up until an impressive 64 years of age, his decision was while unexpected, unquestioned. Entering the throne is emperor Constantine XI, second and eldest surviving son of John V.

Constantine is in no mood to tolerate dissent. Unlike his father, who had been raised and grew up in a position where guile, compromise and diplomacy had been absolutely necessary, the new emperor had been raised secure of his position and his destiny. Unsurprisingly, he has absolutely no tolerance for dissidents, and much less for revolts. When given the reins, the emperor goes out to terminate the revolts with extreme prejudice. The remainder of the armed forces loyal to him (the mercenaries, the navy and about half the pre civil war army; mostly those in Thrace and Asia who can afford a cut in pay thanks to their land holdings) that can be spared are recalled to Thrace in order to march upon the rebels.

However Constantine does not act initially. He is prudent enough to realize that with rebels cutting off revenue of Macedonia and northern Hellas the shrinking imperial budget will be cut once more, leaving the treasury even more stretched. Thus there needed to be new sources of income filling the coffers. To him there are 2 obvious sources, both of which the Viceregent of God chooses to use: The glittering wealth of the church, unmolested by the state for nearly a century and raising the tax burden.

The current crisis being religiously charged by fringe groups that are nearly heretical sees the first one pass relatively easily. The Patriarch agrees to give the imperial treasury the needed funds for the duration of the war, buying the emperor enough time to pay his troops and regain their confidence. Following that an increase on the current taxes of the common folk are pushed forth. Interestingly, the latter is dealt with with minor complaints. This is for 2 major reasons: Thrace, coastal Greece and Asia Minor are all on average much richer regions where in which taxes were, comparatively speaking rather low. That and whatever hint of revolt is dealt with a very quick, very surgical and above all very ruthless response by the imperial government.

With the necessary funds to secure his position, Constantine resumes his march.

All the while, the powers that be have not been idle as Romania stirs. To the east in Anatolia, the withdrawal of imperial forces from the heavily fortified frontier has the Germiyanids Sultanate -no longer content with being a mere beylik- licking their lips in anticipation. These past years had seen the other beyliks move together in opposition, stunting expansion in the east. But this did not mean Germiyan had been idle, for the Sultan had been merely preparing for the next round of conflict. Reorganizing, rebuilding and fortifying.

The target is not Romania however. It is Aydin. This rich strip of coastal land contained many strategic goals for the Sultanate, and with their patron distracted it is time to act. The Sultan wheels his forces east and begins the march to Smyrna for the Aegean is at hand.

Despite resisting valiantly for 2 years, the small principality was unable to stop the onslaught of a vastly superior and larger force. Due to the war, the Imperials could only spare token forces. But Aydin was not alone, for Candar had take up arms against the sultanate in a pre emptive strike to maintain the current balance of power. This, much to the horror of Smyrna, wasn’t enough to relieve the pressure on Symrna. Candar had not reformed her army, nor had she entirely recovered from war against the Ottomans. A quick, efficient conquest was at hand. As Constantine had retaken Thessalonica for the imperial government, this decisively shifted the balance of power back into Imperial hands; Gerimiyanid forces were besieging Smyrna. Knowing fully well there was little chance of relief, the ruling emir, one Nasir Bey, took his family and fled with the navy to his Aegean possessions. From there he rebuilt his court, and ordered his troops to harass the Germiyanid forces while provide support to the Candarids in their counter invasion. Envoys were also sent to the Imperial government pleading with them to aid in the liberation of their conquered lands as soon as possible.

Constantinople agreed with little complaint, though their price was high. Aydin would become a full fledged vassal and the Aydinid navy, the only source of power left for the tiny emirate, was to serve the Roman Navy as auxiliaries. But intervention was not to happen immediately. The Romans were fresh from breaking the back of the rebellion and reintegrating the armies under government command. Now it was time to lick their wounds, implement the needed reforms to balance the budget, make sure their payments to the Italians are met and cement Constantine XI’s unquestioned rule. Government taxation of church funds, despite initially being a temporary measure would continue upon the ‘convincing’ of the upper echelon of the church. Additionally, the end of Thessalonica’s autonomy with its reintegration from Rebel hands would provide another source of income. With great care, a balanced budget was forming. But that was not enough for the Romans to feel secure.

When the Romans felt the ready to intervene once more in 1397, the balance of power in Asia Minor had undergone a transformation. Germiyan was in… an uncomfortable position. The new conquests, while having paid for themselves on the one hand, now caused the Sultanate to be at war with every single one of her neighbors on account of fear of being the next target. From Karaman to Candar to Hamid the beyliks united in opposition to a rising hegemon. Once more war returned.

But Germiyan had prepared. The east had been fortified and with the Aegean secure troops could be shifted east to defend the prepared chokepoints. The smaller beyliks were easily kept at bay, but Candar and Karaman proved to be a different story. The former, while not entirely recovered from the assault on the Ottomans nonetheless pushed forth with their impressive cavalry. That is until the Germiyanids were able to lure Candar into pitched battle leading to the decimation of their forces and a sharp loss of manpower. Now the tables had turned and Candar was rapidly being pushed back.

It gets worse. Trebizond, Germiyan’s ally of convenience had seized the moment and opened a second front, briskly moving her armies to seize the towns of the regions. The Pontic coast appeared ripe for division by these two powers.

On the other hand, Karaman was unfazed. The heirs of Seljuq could throw men into the grinder and have their troops live off the land, granting them far more flexibility in military manners in comparison to their enemies. Karaman raids went off without a hitch and despite the military preparations of their enemies, able to cause damage. We could classify the situation on the ground as a stalemate, but that would only be accurate for up until Candar was crippled. With the other major power rapidly retreating, Germiyan was able to go on the offensive.

That is, until Romania joined the conflict.

Rome’s intervention swiftly tipped the balance of power back into the hands of the coalition. Firstly, by saving Candar. After using Sinope as a launch pad to brutally sacking Trebizond, ransoming its royal family in aftermath of the unexpected attack and eliminating its presence in the current war (and ruining all the work in the past century to build up the country above a third rate power), Romania began to concentrate her forces on the remainder of Candarid territory to defend.

Secondly and simultaneously, via the deployment of troops into the Candarid frontier to roll back the invaders.

Thirdly, with the blockading of Germiyanid territory courtesy of the de facto absorption of the Aydinid fleet. Working in conjunction with the Karamanids, the Romans aim to disperse and fragment enemy forces into more sizable amounts as they occupy land while additionally demoralizing Germiyan.

To their benefit, it does work as planned. The Romans found less resistance than expected as they push down the Meander valley, conquering nearly all in sight with minimal digestible losses. Granted that mostly displays the benefits of a reformed army and exhausted enemies, but we can’t discount all the additional factors in their favor.

Fast forward to 1400. In 7 years Germiyan has gone from the major hegemon in Anatolia to being the plaything of Rome and Karaman (Candar had largely been sidelined by this point as it was clear that Rome had become the dominant power in the partnership) as the two plan out how to carve up their prize. Once more, short sighted greed has become the downfall of a promising state. And though it would be cold comfort to the Sultan and his family, huddling in a castle as a combined Roman/Karaman force pound away at their capital walls, the two powers would not celebrate their victory for long.

Both Constantine XI and Mehmet Beg may believe they have secured their position against an upstart, but that was merely a preview of what will be.

For Timur is coming.

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As the Monster of the East approached north, his appetite barely stated even with the conquest of Egypt, let us look for a moment and analyze the situation of our protagonists. In this brief moment following the aftermath of Germiyan's fall, we are at the moment of what seems like immense victory. The first steps in reclaiming the Cappadocian heartlands had been secured; in a single war, Rome has come close to doubling her territory with little loss on her part. The expanded territory had come with expanded wealth and prestige as Rome imposed her hegemony over the Pontic coast and central Anatolia.

Internally, the conquests had fueled a renewed growth of the economy. But more importantly, they provided a relief to the drastic and unpopular austerity while still managing to provide just enough deal with the debt. (God bless plunder economies) You could be mistaken for thinking this would usher in an era of peace and dominance for the empire, but this was tiny gilded age that masked the coming turmoil. Domestically things looked good, but even the foreign situation was optimistic: The Pontic coast had returned to Roman Hegemony; the Lombardian snake was mollified with large and regular payments; Bulgaria had been occupied once more as the Bolyars needed to be reminded what it means to be Tsar; relations were warming up with Naples after half a century of coldness; the Papacy was split; and the expected new rival in Karaman was uncharacteristically warm to the Romans, being content in conquering Germiyan than renewing the eternal conflict of Turk and Greek.

This brief snapshot of joy and pride was utterly smashed when news reached that a Timurid army had been spotted making its way north on the outskirts of Antioch in 1403. The news of the stunning fall of Egypt was not lost on anyone, nor of Timur’s dream of restarting the Mongol Empire. Timur was here, he was close, and more importantly- he won.

And so, the empire reluctantly prepared for war.

Timur’s army arrived in Anatolia in the summer of 1404, but to little activity. The warlord had been content with wintering and preparing in Syria before going for an all out assault. Biding his time until the opportune moment revealed itself. This would be in March of 1405 when a border skirmish between Timurid cavalrymen and Anatolian raiders of the Beylik of Eretna provided the justification for a declaration of war. Late April would see the fated offensive beginning. Like a knife through hot butter, the Timurids carved a swath in Anatolia, annihilating all resistance with little challenge on his part. Despite the best efforts, a coalition of Eastern Beyliks and other various warlords were smashed.

Well, more like annihilated. The cities were sacked, the artisans deported, the herds slaughtered to feed Timur’s army, and of course, the citizens either killed or deported. Stories of horror and turmoil filtered west the terrified masses of non-Timurid Anatolia. This was followed by letters to the governments of whatever state remained, its content straightforward. Like the Mongols of old, Timur was giving them a choice: Submission or death.

As the imperial government scrambled whatever soldiers it could muster to the borderlands, Constantinople received the messenger of Timur and memories of the Mongols crept again. Fear had become the prevailing mood where there had been optimism and joy. Rome was not ignorant of news that a mighty warlord had managed to effortlessly conquer everything from Delhi to Tripoli- far from it. The nature of a state in which its bread and butter was obtained from trade meant that the international situation was of vital concern to Constantinople. But that's beside the point now.

The Empire faced its next existential crisis, a crucial fact she knew all too well. The past centuries had seen amazing victories- but victories that had been gained through cunning, not with brute force. She had been a regional power at best and had been, for better or worse used to the role of reacting rather than creating events.

Which leads back to the current situation: Romania was faced with a difficult situation. She could A) Swallow a very bitter pill and be at the mercy of Timur or B) Face annihilation at the hands of the horde like so many others.

Which would it be?

Constantine XI had always been a proud man, but he was a sane one. Therefore, it would come as little surprise (except to every observer in Europe who expected that Rome would fall next) when he had sent back to the Timurids a note of submission. This would be unpopular, and he might not even survive the fallout (even at their lowest, Rome was always prideful), but at least his empire would have the chance to live another day.

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Special Interlude By BgKnight on Bulgaria

The clatter of hooves striving on the road made of stones was drowned in the noises of the city. Veliko Turnovo had changed massively since Ieremia was last here, for he was naught but a child when his father took him along to the capital of the Tsardom. The sights, sounds and smells had ingrained themselves into the young man as he rode through the streets of this city ten years ago. But it was nothing like it was now, the city was now two or three times bigger, the walls were expanded, the hills on which the city is built were filled with buildings.

The trip here had taken longer then expected, but that is because Ieremia had insisted that he bring his retinue and assistance. He wanted to make a good impression on the Tsar, and at the same time show off his own men who have been so successful in the fending off Magyar raiders and his own Vlach brethren who had refused to pledge themselves to the crown in Turnovo. Unfortunate, as it may be, he had become a master of slaying what he saw as rebellious horse-lords in the north, be them Magyar or Vlach, Cuman or Pecheneg.

Finally, Ieremia's group reached in the beginning of the walls, so far he had been riding through the outskirts, filled with scattered buildings and houses built on top the steep hills or on the banks of the Etar river that cut through the city. The royal residence however was nothing like that, the scattered houses gave way to a single, wide bridge, built out of cut stone and paved, it lead into a giant walled off settlement, deep at the center of Turnovo, surrounded on all sides by the river Etar, built on-top of a steep plateau that had been reinforced additionally with massive walls. They had reached that part of the city, which never changes, Ieremia smiled to himself as his forces stopped in-front of the chiseled lion statues that adorned the entrance of the bridge.

There was already a strong force of men waiting for the Ieremia. Their chainmail shined beyond perfection, with gold lions adorning their breasts and exquisite engravings on their shoulder plates and sword hilts. It wasn't hard to recognize the royal guardsmen, even if you strip away their expensive equipment, they would still easily tower over the short Vlach horsemen. Their leader, a blond, blue eyed Slav, who had removed his helmet and had tucked it under his arm, smiled and spoke first, in Greek, as was customary with Bulgarian aristocracy.

"Voevoda [1] Ieremia" He bowed, slowly "Chief Spătar[2] Klement. I serve the Tsar and his court and from now on my men will protect you."
The Voevoda responded with a short bow of the head and waved to his men. Soon enough the whole group was dismounted.
"What is there to be protected from, Spătar Klement?"
"It is customary, Voevoda, if anything would happen to your men, supplies or your animals, I will be held personally responsible for their safety. Come..." he smiled, a warm friendly smile and pointed with his giant hand towards the bridge. "...join me. My men will show your men where to station themselves and lead the horses to the stables."

-----

The Tsaritsa was in pain, she had given birth a few days ago and her body was tired. She was lying in her chamber, the only place where she could feel at home. She was born in Constantinople, she was used to the marble streets of the Capital of the Empire, the sprawling warm city filled with life. Turnovo was nothing like this, Turnovo was all made of cut stone, its streets were narrow and any climbing stairs on the almost vertical hills was a daily occurrence. But what she could never get used to, was that damned wind. Due to the elevation of the city, it was constantly blasted with winds, cold winds at that. It brought an eerily feeling of chill.

Perhaps because of that, the people were different as well. They were colder, their songs were always somehow melancholic. They preferred drums, rough male voices and they treated their women a lot harsher then any Roman would dare. She quickly embraced the idea of covering herself up, including her hair, as it was expected from a Bulgarian noblewoman, mainly because of the cold that reached all the way to her bones. There was only one reason she continued to live in this god forsaken place, her family.

She smiled as she saw the Tsar enter the room. As always, he was surrounded by an array of Vatakhs [3] and his own personal Tainik [4], who he dismissed with a wave of his hand. The two guardsmen standing in-front of the heavy wooden door closed it behind his majesty, leaving him and his wife alone. When not in the presence of the rest of the court, Boril Asen, the second of his name, son of Michael Asen, changed dramatically. His harsh bearded face, always wearing a frown, suddenly lit up with a small smile. It was the closest thing this person had to a joyful expression, and it was something the Tsaritsa had grown to adore.

He walked to the small wooden crib that was build for his child, his flesh and blood and the smile remained unwavering. He picked up the child and held it in his large rough hands. This was the third child Agatha had gifted him with, and the second son. The first child, a daughter, Irina, had died after a prolonged sickness. His second child, Todor Asen [5] was frail and many of the court's own physicians, even those brought from Constantinople, were giving the boy a few years more before he passes away.

This child, Gavrail Asen, was what was going to secure the dynasty's continuation. The threat of the Shishman dynasty taking the crown continued to hang over the house of Asen. After Tsar Ivan Alexander, Boril's grandfather, divorced Theodora of Wallachia, forcing her to become a nun, and re-married Sarah-Theodora, a converted jew, producing more offspring, the dynastic conflict has been driving a wedge within the Bulgar aristocracy. Luckily, Mihail, Boril's father and Ivan Alexander's firstborn, had managed to outmaneuver the crafty Tsaritsa and keep the crown within the Asen line, but not before Mihail himself had had to put down a bloody rebellion following his father's death.

Thanks to military skill and diplomatic ingenuity, Mihail had forced a peace with the Shishman dynasty, demoting their head, Ivan Shishman, to a Knyaz, controlling the town of Ihtiman. Unfortunately, he was forced to show leniency, leaving Shishman alive and well. And while this ultimately proved to be a good decision, as Ivan Shishman would never rebel again, Fruzhin Shishman, his second son (the first was killed in one of the daring northern raids) on the other hand is proving to be problematic. With Mihail dead for a while now, and Boril refusing to continue his constant wars northwards, choosing instead to straighten the crown, the Bolyars are now chafing under his authority and looking for someone to lead the charge against the Tsar. Someone with royal legitimacy, a fact Fruzhin has been more then keen to display, as he has hosted elaborate feasts in Ihtiman, wearing royal colors and sending Nakhodniks [6] to rebellious Bolyars.

And all of this had threatened the Tsar and his authority. His majesty, of course, has planned his own response which would soon all come into play and decide if the Tsar will continue to hold Bulgaria in his hands, or will he lose it to the ambitious pretenders. Agatha could see all of that in the face of this man, wounds left over from many a battles and deep wrinkles all combined to give him that harsh expression that had been in a constant state of frowning for as long as she could remember.

Not today. The Tsar had a heir and with that, the deep wrinkles of discontent and pain were gone, and a smile that had rarely shown itself had covered his face. Leaving the child in the crib, he sat down next to the Tsaritsa, clasping her hand, and spoke in his own, slightly accented version of her native Greek. With his closest advisers and allies he used the harsh Bulgar tongue, insisting that his Bolyars used the language "god had given our people", but with her, he compromised.

"My love, we have been blessed." his smile remained, his large hand completely covering her small, white and frail hand. She smiled in response
"God has given us a child." she said, but the words were hard to come out
"Torture yourself not, my love." he said, as one of his hands slowly moved to stroke her hair. She smiled. "This will all be over soon, Agatha." he said in a voice that seemed almost joyful.

-----

"Your majesty... I... I cannot." Ieremia looked at the man with confusion. "... you ask of me so much."

"And you will be handsomely rewarded, Voevoda." he responded, the wrinkles under his yes tightening

"I fight not for a reward, my lord. I fight for the crown."

"Let us not lie to each-other, Voevoda, you fight for yourself, as any man does. Infiltrate the conspirators for me, Voevoda Ieremia, and I will give you and your family the lands of the traitors. And I will make you a Great Boil [7]. Your father and you have shown your loyalty to the crown. And for this, I cannot even trust my own people. I need someone, who would be considered an outsider for the Bolyars." the Tsar clasped left his cup on the table and his brown eyes stared into those of Ieremia. The Voevoda stood there for a second, not moving, thinking. All the options were laid out in front of him. The rewards were just too good.

"When do I ride out?"

"In a week" the Tsar said, as he clasped his cup and lifted it up high.

-----

Fruzhin Shishman, or Tsar Fruzhin as he called himself, was riding out. He had gathered those who wish to oppose the Tsar in Ihtiman in the last few months. Including several new additions, a few of the southern Despots and a young Voevoda, Ieremia, with an array of Vlah men. He didn't know how Ieremia managed to slip through the Tsar's loyalists in the North, but was feeling confident in his retinue and had now set his sights on the Vratisa and eventually, Vidin.

Since many settlements in the North had refused to declare for him, he had to capture Vidin and its arrogant despot Ivan Sratsimir, the old and frail brother of former Tsar Mihail, so that he could extend his rule northwards, into the vast Danubian plain which was for all intents and purposes ran by Sratsimir.

Ieremia and his fast horsemen were a godsend for Fruzhin, as that allowed the would-be Tsar to scout faster and further then he would be able with his own men. The Voevoda's men ran ahead of the force and reported any enemy activity, with young Ieremia even volunteering himself to lead the men into dangerous scouting operations. Fruzhin had made a note to award the Vlach's bravery.

Sredets, having joined the revolt, let the men through rather quickly, and soon enough, after many days of riding, they had reached Vratitsa pass. It seems, surprisingly, that in his arrogance, Sratsimir had neglected the defenses of the pass, as the Voevoda reported a very small concentration of men.

This would ultimately be Fruzhin's undoing. Sratsimir did not neglect the defense of the pass. He had masterfully hidden his men, and Ieremia had known about this from the start. The Voevoda had led the would be Tsar by the nose, up until they finally reached the crossing of the river Iskar, close to the town of Vratsa. It is there, when the ambush sprang, as the Tsar was crossing the river, a massive force of men emerged form the woods, catching the force unawares. Ieremia's soldiers instantly turned back, blocking the Tsar's men from the front, while the back was closed off by Sratsimir loyal soldiers. The battle would rage for a while, but the overwhelmed Fruzhin, surprised over the betrayal would die, slain by a stray arrow.

While the rebellion of the Shishman Dynasty would continue to rage for another few years, as the Tsar's own men took every one of the southern fortresses held by the pretenders, it would ultimately be a failure. In the meanwhile however, the restless Serb despots would try and reassert their autonomy, leading to even more fighting, but at the end of it all, it would be all for naught. With history remembering the rule of Boil, with a far more overreaching conflict, one that shook the Balkans to its core.

[1]Medieval title of a ruler, Voevoda had changed over the years. While titles like Knyaz, which used to be the highest rank in the Bulgarian state more then 100 years ago, are now nothing more then a mayor or a ruler of lower stature, Voevoda, or the term for a leader of an army, is now equivalent to a Boil (the title most of the Bulgar aristocracy, or the Bolyars, carries).
[2] Initially the Spătar (from Spatharioi) was the royal armorer, but over time TTL the title developed to mean the head of the royal guard.
[3]Financial and administrative advisers and clerks
[4] Tainik, from the slavic word of Taina (secret), the Tsar's own recorder/clerk. Literally translated to "secrets keeper"
[5] Bulgarian version of Greek given name of Theodore
[6] Messengers
[7] The closest aristocratic advisers to the Tsar, with the Ichirgu-boila (now known as Chargobilya) being the third in line after the Tsar and Sûtsar (if one is present).

----

Upon meeting in the the neutral ground of Iconium (the closest Timurid garrison), two monarchs decided the terms of submission. Bearing rich gifts of gold, silk and various precious metals, Constantine entered the garrison hoping that he could soothe the warlord into merely paying tribute until the aging man died, which judging from his reports of Timur’s age, wasn’t that far along the line.

According to historians of the day (both Timurid, Turkmen and Roman) the meeting went along surprisingly well. Timur was for all his many faults, a cordial intellectual well versed in history and the arts, and frequently surrounded with historians and scholars. Even the highly biased Roman sources had to note that despite being a barbarian from the far off steppes, Timur had an ‘air of civilization’ and ‘a Romanness about him’ (granted this is also their excuse to give damage control over the embarrassment at bending the knee). After an initial chat, the conversation drifted towards business, something Timur was known to smugly comment on how he held the power and could theoretically demolish the Roman Empire whenever he wanted. The emperor was said to have merely grit his teeth and endured the humiliation.

Nonetheless, the demands set forth by Timur were surprisingly light- relatively speaking. Timur had been true to his word to those who showed submission, as with the beylik of Karaman for instance, and held back his fury. There would be no sacking and rampaging, merely a set of demarcations and orders. After a week of bargaining the fate of millions, a treaty was drafted and ratified by the two monarchs. The terms included:

-Formal vassalage would be imposed.

-Romania would pull back her troops and cede territory in her far eastern areas to be reorganized into new Timurid provinces as had been done to Karaman’s central Anatolian region. Perfect for horse archers and other nomads, it would serve as a prime recruiting and training ground for new warriors- and an excellent source to strike at the heart of the Asian regions should the Romans have second thoughts on their relationship with the Timurid empire.

Once again, the Roman frontier shifted from Phrygia to Lydia much like it had been during the Nicene Exile. But more accurately, Claudiopolis would become the empire’s far eastern frontier city along with a chain of cities ‘curving’ around the border. These included Synaos, Philadelphia, Laodicea and Stauropolis, and so forth.

-Additionally, Roman forces in Western Anatolia were not permitted to build new fortifications on the frontier. As a vassal of the Timurid Empire defence was delegated to the Amir, and thus, fortifications were unnecessary.

-In exchange for the ‘leniency’ of keeping the western coastal cities, Romania would be expected to provide a hefty yearly monetary tribute to Timurid authorities. Adding on to the monetary tribute, Timur imposed an intellectual and artistic one. In concordance with previous policy throughout the Timurid empire, the Amir demanded a relocation of hundreds of scholars, artisans, and engineers to be relocated to Samarqand.

-Romania must not interfere with the affairs of states under Timurid vassalage and influence. Effectively, this dramatically curbed Roman presence from her network of clients in the Pontic Coast and allies in the Caucus. To do so would be a tantamount to a declaration of war with the Timurid State.

-Timurid merchants would be able to conduct their businesses within the Roman Empire customs free.

One can see from this that Timur primarily intended to use the empire as another source of income. For all his faults, ignorance was not one of them. The amir knew of Rome’s history, and how she had revived herself into a wealthy state with half the land they once had. He had also been aware of their status as a gateway to western goods through trade. Therefore, the quick, bloodless, and most importantly, willing submission of Romania came at a very pleasant surprise. The meeting at Iconium was merely to shift the current situation into something more favorable to him. Keeping the plateau exposed the Western regions provided a sword of Damocles to threaten the Imperials with, as well as a launchpad for any future invasions. And of course, it added on to his prestige with new acquisitions of engineers, artists, teachers and other priceless works that Constantinople held.

Timur remained in Iconium for a fortnight, before venturing off to his capital, intent on preparing the empire for his successor (right up until the Northern Yuan called for help). The emperor and his party meanwhile returned to Constantinople barely a day after the treaty had been signed, deeply embittered and humiliated, but with a small comfort in knowing he had managed to keep some of the hard won gains of his empire and secure its future (and that Timur would die in a few years, leading to a potential revocation if and when a succession crisis arrives. Also, if he starts another war then that's another excuse to ignore the terms of treaty). The general mood in the court was similar, and contributed to a decline in his popularity. He was now seen as weak by many, especially with several in the military elite who argued for to fight to the death. Conversely, he managed to remain some level of good will with the imperial bureaucracy and the trade monopoly thanks to securing long standing Roman interests in Western Anatolia, with the small price of trading off the (from their perspective) worthless plateau. Issues of tribute and customs were rationalized as being able to be paid off with the rich cities of the coast, and the expanded hinterland. (It also helps the Romans paid less and less each year as they knew Timur was far away and wouldn’t realistically march an army to get them) There was some truth to this, as the increased Roman regions held well an estimated population of well over 1 million people, granting the state a whopping ~30 - ~40% increase in the tax base. Indeed the expanded lands and subjects helped whether the price of freedom with extra to spare.

But what of the third major pillar in Roman politics: the church? How had they taken the deal? The answer was a near universal condemnation. The Patriarch had been furious, monks spoke out condemning the matter- even the Popes, all 3 of them, had voiced disagreement with Constantine’s actions. The reasons are obvious when one thinks about it: Bowing to an infidel barbarian; leaving populations of Christians to the hands of said infidel barbarian; news of massacres of Assyrians and Copts and Nestorians; giving away church memorabilia and workers (icons, painters, gold, etc) and other treasures to placate a madman- all of it was simply unbecoming of a man who held the office of Roman Emperor.

The political isolation of these two major power blocs would see to the downfall of Constantine XI, and taring of his reputation for much of future history. But it would not be quick, Constantine was a crafty man who knew how power politics worked and did make attempts to mollify these groups, such as paying less tribute each year, rallying support by presenting himself as the only savior they had against the Neo-Mongols and other such things. But that did not stop conspiracy from brewing. 6 years later, when word of Timur’s death had reached the Empire 6 years later, all bets were off.

Speaking of Timur, you might be wondering what happened to him after cementing redrawing the map of Anatolia. Well, he did whatever any compulsive gambler did and went after a bigger gamble. This time, China. Arriving in early 1406 with a recuperated army fresh from recruiting many Turkmen tribes in Anatolia and northern Mesopotamia, Timurid forces linked up with the remnants of the Northern Yuan to re-establish Mongol control of China. He would never succeed, but he did bloody the nascent Ming and knock them out of the Gansu Corridor. Further Timurid successes include sacking many cities (including Beijing at one point) and inflicting varying defeats. However, the Ming had the advantage in numbers and firepower. After a long string of success, the main Timurid/Mongol army was cornered and massacred in a long, brutal decisive victory. Timur escaped, but succumbed to his wounds shortly after. Meanwhile, the Ming had managed to deal with northern threat, and would quickly recuperate in the coming decades.

Timur’s death was not well received all throughout the Timurid domains. While succession was unquestioned: Timur’s first son Jahangir Mirza was appointed the next Amir and crowned in Samarqand, this would be the highpoint of his reign. For Jahangir was unable to cement control; he lacked Timur’s force of will and military prowess to cement control. Furthermore, his rule was immediately shaken with revolts in trying to hold such a far off empire- one that stretched from Iconium to the Indus and had very few institutions to glue the territory together. Successive revolts would wrack the Jahangir’s domain, and after a few disastrous campaigns, he decided to pull back his forces and cement control of what he could hold. Sogdia, Afghanistan and Baluchistan would remain the Timurid powerbase. The remainder of Iran that was held by the Timurids would be relegated to a series of frontier marches (ironic given Imperial Iran’s treatment of Central Asia) in constant low level war against western invaders. Everything else was lost.

But how did that empire disintegrate?

It started with the Qara Qoyunlu. Initially beaten into submission during Timur’s campaigns into Persia, Syria and Anatolia, they yet again emerged out of the woodwork in rebellion. With most of the Timurid army east and far away, this time they were successful in throwing off the foreign yoke. However, unlike before this dynasty was unable to establish control of its former heartland in Azerbaijan and Armenia- instead these would go to the Chobanids. Qara Qoyunlu would have to content itself with the Levant and Cilicia, and whatever chunk of Anatolia they would try to rend from the Karamanids from time to time. Being that this is a rather unstable geographic position, Qara Qoyunlu would be hampered in its efforts to expand and thrive.

The Chobanids were another Turkic dynasty that had emerged in the aftermath of the Ilkhanate’s collapse. Basing themselves in northeastern Iran, this dynasty would move quickly to establish themselves as the local Iranian hegemon. They invaded south, taking much of Mesopotamia and pushing the then rising Qara Qoyunlu into Syria. From there, they began a push towards Iran, intent on seizing the plateau, and later into India proper. The Chobanids are interesting because like many of the Turkmen descended groups in the region, were Shi’ite. And like another important Shi’a state- the Fatimids, they would be known for constantly shifting their power base east as peripheral groups pushed them out of their former strongholds. But that's another story.

Egypt meanwhile rode out the storm with comparatively little hassle. Timurid Egypt, ruled by Timur’s fourth son Shahrukh Mirza was blessed with having Timurs most capable heir as governor. Ironically it was Timur’s dismissiveness of his fourth son for being, in his words ‘meek’, that cemented his dynasty’s place in history. Shahrukh was in many ways an intellectual like his father, but unlike Timur he had studied the one field Timur ignored: Economics. Shahrukh fully understood the importance of healthy commerce, a well maintained infrastructure, and stability. In response to the news of rebellion, he made no moves against it, realizing that such things would be futile, as Ibn Khaldun predicted on imperial peripheries. Instead he began offering land and gold to whoever would serve in his army, and hunkered down in Cairo, smacking down any attempts at invasion from the Qara Qoyunlu while he took the time to establish authority. Shahrukh’s long, stable, and wise rule would see an Egypt return to its status as regional powerhouse with its infrastructure rebuilt, its army enlarged, its wealth expanded and its status as a major trade zone yet again confirmed.

But that’s quite the tangent. Back to Constantine and his increasingly shaky hold on power.

The few years after Timur had were one of consolidation and an extensive focus on the eastern territory. The events in Egypt had been yet another shock to the market and trade systems. Fortunately, this didn’t hurt the Romans as much as the Silk road trade, which had stabilized, but it did hurt many of their consumers in Italy and beyond. Due to that, revenue based on trade declined and a renewed focus on taxation was set forth. Here, the new territories would play a critical role. Their material wealth (which could be taxed by tolls on inter empire trade) along with huge tax base would cover the deficit in external trade.

Enforcing control however, was something that was more difficult than expected. Local elites did not like Rome’s indiscriminate taxation, far reaching bureaucracy, policy of sending out poor settlers from distant corners of their empire (predominantly from the urban poor), and the chafing imperial authority. Roman policy wasn’t exactly good for ingratiating with local power structures, even when much of the populace was still Christian and Greek, or had elements of traditional Roman culture that one might appeal too. As one might expect, there were more than a few revolts here and there for those who wanted to return the clock back to Turkish rule, but Rome had the superior army and organization. Therefore, the next few years would see a massive military presence in Asia minor, with the bulk of the army (at least 20,000 troops) stationed in Anatolia.

Outside of Asia Minor, Constantinople dealt with the aftermath of their war. The former Aydinid navy had by now been fully integrated with the Roman navy and much of the Germiyanid bureaucracy was slowly being co-opted to serve imperial need (after a period of retraining and shuffling around of course.) The border with Karaman, demarcated by Timur himself remained that way and relations were still cordial. In Europe, the Emperor offered aid to the Tsar in his wars against rebels (mainly using his mercenary troops) and payments to Genoa were begrudgingly continued. (It is worth noting that by now the bulk of payments to Genoa were completed and the merchant empire was reeling from depression caused a disruption in Egyptian trade, thus deeply enjoyed their payments from Rome) This tightened the budget to a nearly unbreakable level, but Constantine held firm. Until Timur died.

After that, all hell broke lose. Without the Mongol boogeyman, the military faction unhappy with Constantine was able to make greater strides. Forging an alliance with the Church and a faction of bureaucrats that were unhappy to pay both Genoa and Timur at once. The groups began maneuvering against the emperor and planning the eventual coup. Through loyal contacts with the bureaucracy, Constantine had become aware of the coup, and managed to flee before he could be captured. Arriving in Savoy in winter of 1410, he vowed to retake his throne.

It is fortunate then a month later he was approached with an official Genoese envoy willing to make a bargain with him...

----

What causes conflict? What determines the end of a longstanding friendship? Is it greed? Folly? Abuse? Or merely a conflict of interests?

The answer has been pondered for as long as man existed. In this current case study, of the Medieval Roman Empire and her longstanding ally the Most Serene Republic of Genoa, its all of the above. The two, though having been united through a mutual dislike of Venice, and the benefits of cooperation, have had that raison d’etre steadily eroded over the past century.

Tradition dictates this began with Venice’s elimination as the major trading state in the Eastern Mediterranean, although arguably one could this happened with the implementation of the Renovation by Alexios Apokaukos. Genoa now faced another competitor in a limited sector, and one who was far closer to the vital Oriental Markets. But they were small and relegated their activities to areas that Genoa considered marginal at the time, such as the Maghrebian trade or the Black Sea.

But once Venice was removed, this conflicting interest was exacerbated. Genoa found itself at a golden opportunity where in which the Serenissima could dominate all the Eastern Trade. Standing in between that though, was Romania. An irritant at first, but Romania continued to grow, and grow, and grow as the decades passed. Genoa grew more spectacularly, and expanded her markets everywhere- but Romania represented competition and compromise. Something that often didn’t sit well with the Patricians looking at their profit margins. And thus, tension grew, slowly but surely.

Genoa moving her trade zones to the West and North mitigated this somewhat but this could not be ignored once the Ottomans were eliminated. Rome had a foothold across the Bosphorus, had land and shipyards in both sides of the Aegean, and was moving in rapidly to secure the Black Sea trade and overland Silk Road nexuses. Genoa was on alert, and all that was needed was an excuse to take their rivals down a notch. But Romania was compliant in many ways, and tensions managed to simmer, rather than boil. Neither side really trusted each other at this point [Mid 1370s] but they had no reason for war, along with being more concerned with other matters.

But that couldn’t last forever. And in fact, it is quite surprising the detente lasted this long. But when Timur invaded the Levant, deeply disrupting the commerce of such a strategic region, Genoa was forced to act- and quickly, for better or for worse. After Timur’s invasion, Genoa entered a steep recession and needed to find ways to balance its budget.

They did this in the easiest way possible: conquest. This might seem odd- after all, wars are expensive. But the rationale wasn’t that strange. Conquest would bring new taxpayers would make up the deficit. If the war was quick and decisive. Luckily, Genoa had very good targets: Cyprus, throwing off the shackles of the Mamluk government was highly disorganized when the Genoese fleet came into port- and Candia, where Genoese investments had seen much of its economy already tied to and controlled by the Patricians in Italy. All that was needed was regular taxation to formalize the status quo. The former was easy, the latter had come at a cost: Romania.

Romania, predictably protested, but was too busy dealing with the Timurids and their aftermath to take any real action. Genoese rule was effectively unchallenged, to its benefit. Control of Cyprus and Crete did wonders for the Serenissima, giving it a series of naval bases and a healthy, decently sized tax base. But more importantly, it alleviated the worst of the depression and allowed Genoa a quick recovery while the other merchants in the region suffered.

Under Constantine XI, Romania did not take action. Once he and his immediate family fled, this changed. The military clique that dominated the Imperial Government through their puppet emperor (Constantine's much meeker brother Manuel [1]) repudiated Genoa’s illegal annexation of the Duchy of Candia. Genoa promptly refused, and war broke out.

And so here we are, the end of a long and topsy turvy friendship initially based on mutual hate.

When we last off, news of Constantine XI’s appearance in Savoy came as a pleasant surprise to Genoa. A perfect opportunity to install a more compliant leader who had a history of respecting Genoese interests whilst throwing a little turmoil into the empire to knock them down a peg. Constantine XI on the other hand, readily accepted the Genoese offer. Angered and betrayed, he sought to retake his birthright. Or, so the history goes.

Back at the war front, the Genoese had near total dominance. Since the Final Genoese-Venetian War, the city state had been undergoing a naval revolution with a variety of new techniques added to the Genoese arsenal. For example, introducing mounted cannons on ships, better tactics in amphibious assaults, better design in shipbuilding (one sees Carracks coming into use in the very late 1300s, quickly adopted en masse for their ability to carry goods in bulk), naval convoys, an arsenal to mass produce ships, and so forth. Genoa was at the center of a trading empire, and the seas were her veins. Severing control of them meant severing the heart of the state organism. As a corollary to that, Genoese tactics also evolved, focussing much like their former rivals Venice historically did, on extensive shock and awe and overwhelming force. Wars must be ended quickly, on their terms, so that trade is not interrupted. And it worked out pretty well so far.

This was no different. Rome might have had a much larger fleet than before (give or take 80 warships if one is generous along with whatever remnants of the Aydinids) but these were outdated, especially in terms of firepower. While the experience in wars and navigating hostile waters over the decades had seen a respectable naval tradition form- it was not enough. Genoa struck harder, much faster than expected, and outnumbered the Roman fleet by a good margin.

The Genoese were able to command the seas and effectively sever both sides of the Empire in half. This still came at a price, the Romans fought hard and caused more casualties than expected to Genoa. But that didn’t stop the Ligurians; instead the redoubled their efforts in securing the seas and ending war as quickly as possible. The coastal cities were being choked, their trade ended, and communications inside the realm slowed. But that’s not all, a new fleet was dispatched- this time carrying a massive 35,000 man army, primarily composed of mercenary companies and their siege weapons, landing in Gallipoli. Their target? The Queen of Cities, Constantinople herself.

Roman intelligence was, while initially caught off guard at the brazenness of Genoa, quick to react. Genoa may have controlled the seas, but she had little dominance at land, where Rome cemented authority at the hinterland. In Constantinople, the Military Junta gave orders to prepare for the inevitable while dispatching messengers for a counterattack. As much food as possible was hastily brought inside and all troops in the vicinity (professional, militia, and other) were pulled back to Constantinople to prepare for the inevitable. This being in the dead of winter of 1411 was a hasty proposition, but decades of improvements to roads and farming had seen to it that there was a surplus available to be quickly transported.

Meanwhile, the remnants of the Roman Army in Europe were pulled back to Macedonia, regrouped and reorganized as a group of messengers were sent up north to the Tsar’s court to appeal for aid. Another group of messengers were smuggled out to Italy, in the hopes of appealing to the Empire’s dynastic relatives, the Savoyards. And finally, a third were sent out to Asia Minor to inform the Armies of the East in what policies should be taken: A buildup of an emergency 15,000 strong army, an attack on Galata, and the recruitment of all possible ships into an impromptu fleet to break the blockade while a new fleet is under construction to take the fight out of the Aegean. The reader is left to decide the viability of that.

This strategy of course, was a race against time. The longer the response came, the more Romania suffered, either in food shortages and the lack of revenue. And then were the risks of messengers being caught, causing the enemy to change their attack patterns. But fortune was on Romania’s side. Genoa’s efforts were all on securing the coasts, choking Rome while going for a knockout blow in the hopes of quick and decisive victory. Little effort paid to the securing the hinterland and launching a full on occupation. That’s expensive, afterall.

The northern messengers journeyed without struggle. The Tsar, Boril II, welcomed messengers of the South with open arms, and was practically giddy at the news. Romania was to offer them the province of Dalmatia in exchange for their military aid. Like his predecessor before him Bulgaria was quick to take advantage of neighboring conflicts to centralize and expand. Here was the chance to enter into the Adriatic Sea and further eliminate unnecessary landed elites as his predecessor had against the Ottomans. The aftermath of crushing the Shihman rebellion and the various Serb uprisings had managed to cement Boril’s supremacy over the other nobles, but that left the problem of well, many of them are still alive. And plotting. Most likely, once his death comes the monarchy would be in a much stronger position than when it began, but the inevitable pushback should see more bloodshed, along with the possibility of undoing his father and grandfather’s hard work. Here, that could be nipped in the bud. And so Boril rallied his banner-men, particularly from the far, restless corners of his empire and agreed to meet south with the main Byzantine army in Macedonia at the start of Spring.

Those who had been sent east saw less success. As they attempted to move into Anatolia, the messengers were caught by the Genoese blockade, tortured for information, and executed. They cracked, causing the invading force to reshuffle their plans. While news of appealing to Macedonian aid did not break out, the news that Rome was preparing to strike back greatly panicked the Genoese, who wanted this war as quickly as possible. It had been already 3 and a half months since the fighting began in earnest and the Romans refused to come to terms. Once spring would come the any chance of hunger bringing the Imperials on their knees would be a pipe dream. Genoese command reacted fast, sending the news back to the mother city as soon as possible, while starting to recruit from their newly conquered provinces to counter any assembled armies. But additionally, some men were dispatched to Iconium, to the realm of Karaman, with hopes to bribe them into attacking the Romans. Put pressure on both sides the Empire, if you will.

Karaman didn't take much effort to convince. Rome was wealthy, a threat and and the Italians paid well (by Central Anatolian standards). The pastoral tribes, always eager and restless would be kept occupied, and the emir would bring great prestige to the land. Despite being winter, raids began in earnest almost immediately.

We see the beginning of 1412 with the state being split in half, reliant on allies for support and with a massive, well equipped and supplied army on the outskirts of Constantinople. Her cities drained of their lifeblood -the vital trade- by competitors. And at the same time, the hordes of the east begin their attacks once more.

How shall Romania survive this onslaught, one might wonder? The answer: by widening the war.

As winter gives into the spring, a small band of wanderers enter Chambery. They are disguised as Latin priests, but are really messengers of the east, bringing news to the Duke of Savoy. They explain the situation to the east, of their old and loyal allies being besieged from all corners and appeal to his aid. The duke of Savoy, Amadeus VII is moved, and agrees to give aid. His rationale appears sympathetic, but it is really a careful ploy for power. Long defended by their stalwart allies Milan, Savoy has been unable to make moves against Genoa until very recently.

But the Savoyards have pledged their support to the Pope in Avignon, and have secured an alliance with France. Who, in turn, has secured control of all territory from the English, recently expelling them from the continent and freeing up soldiers to be used elsewhere. In short, Savoy has gained both a sword and a shield in the form of France. If Milan reacts, France shall as well.

Now, with the perfect cassus belli, he has no excuse not to invade. The agreement is set and the messengers are sent off. Savoy shall see to it to defend Romania from the Lombards. In early spring, a large Savoyard army moves south and takes Monaco, before wheeling east towards Liguria. Genoa is caught completely off guard.

[1] As a side note the other two siblings are still alive, but middle child Michael has been tonsured and sent off to a monastery at swordpoint and youngest child Andreas is currently governor of Epirus and knows very well he has no army that can challenge Constantinople, so plays along with this, for now.
 

Deleted member 67076

Savoy’s invasion of Genoa came as an absolute shock. Savoy traditionally had held amicable relations with its neighbors (for the most part anyway), and thus Genoa’s was unable to adequately respond to the swift moves of the well trained Savoyard Army. In the subsequent year, much of Liguria was overrun. However, Genoa was not without allies and quickly summoned Milan to its defense. Always the stalwart ally, Milan promptly invaded Savoy, which caused Savoy to call in France. France agreed for 2 reasons: 1) her ambitions in Italy had her wanting for the fabulously wealthy Milanese Duchy, and 2) the current King of France wished to rid himself of the young yet already troublesome Duke of Berry via exiling him to a distant province via appointment. Once he had been dealt with, the French king would continue his path to centralization and expansion of royal authority.

France’s invasion sent shockwaves throughout Christendom. The image of French nobles setting up estates in Italy scared the Urban Burghers, who desperately valued their autonomy, it scared the Papacy in Rome which feared deposition and a solidification of the ‘Babylonian Exile’ of the so called Avignon Papacy (and an end to the Western Schism on the enemy's terms), and of course, the Holy Roman Emperor himself- currently the king of Bohemia- who had his own plans for the peninsula. This sent a number of counter invasions and mobilizations all throughout Europe on a scale unseen in arguably centuries. Bohemia, in the name of the Holy Roman Empire declared war on France ostensibly to protect the Papacy and linked up with Milan and a coalition of Northern Italian states who (rightfully) feared French Aggression.

When news reached Paris, the King of France reacted rather by further broadening the war. Driven by a common dislike of the Papacy and the possibility for mutual gain, he had little difficulty in convincing his ally, the Kingdom of Naples to attack the Papal States with impunity. Naples’ position regarding the current Schism (wholescale support of Avignon) further sweetened the deal. Naples could take as much as she wanted in the Papal States, without repercussion. In all this, Venice maintained armed neutrality and generally tried to play all sides against each other, selling as much arms and equipment as possible while grabbing territory when they could. The recent decades had been relatively generous to them, with an expansion of their Italian holdings. Here presented a chance to open up new opportunities for expansion in the future as the regional powers exhausted themselves.

The bottom line in all this is over the course of a mere year, Italy was in flames, and suddenly Romanian debt was the least of Genoa’s problems. Combined with a brutal decisive loss outside the gates of Constantinople by a combined Roman-Bulgarian force. (Although to be fair the Roman-Bulgarian force suffered heavily as well) Genoa scrambled, withdrawing her Aegean fleet and the remainder of her mercenaries back to the homeland to fight against Savoy. They could always return later after all. The Savoyards were eventually rebuffed from their siege of Genoa thanks to the timely arrival of reinforcements and the enemy’s need to split their forces to fight Milan and company, but much of Liguria lay under Savoyard control.

Seeing the way the wind was blowing, a quick peace treaty was signed and Genoa agreed to give up control of Monaco and the surrounding areas to Savoy in exchange for peace. A small price to pay for stabilizing the situation. Yet it was not the time for Savoy to return to normalcy; Milan had still mobilized her troops, and would not be satisfied with her rival’s improved geostrategic position. And so the war front shifted northeast as Northern Italy’s largest powers battled for supremacy of the Po Valley.

Despite being outnumbered by Milanese forces, Savoy managed to keep a stalemate for the time being until the French soldiers arrived en route to Milan, where in which the tide (briefly) shifted to the favor of the Avignon Alliance. Until of course, reinforcements from the Papal states, Tuscany and Bohemia kicked the French out of Milan where they bunkered down in the Alpines.
France would return with a vengeance the following year after licking their wounds and sending additional reinforcements.

One might wonder why France, heavyweight of Europe, was so tied down rather quickly in Italy despite its massive demographic advantages and military innovations stemming from its decade long struggle with England and her allies. The reason is that frankly, the French still were pretty exhausted from the Hundred Years War. The English may have lost their continental possessions, but decades of warfare, destruction, plague and economic crisis have taken their toll on the country. France had been depopulated, the crown was low on funds and peasant revolts grew increasingly frequent as the decades passed.

Additionally, there was the fact that these military innovations weren’t much of a bonus in Italy. The Condottieri mercenary companies that formed the bulk of the Italian armies during this time period were equally (and arguably in many cases better) equipped and disciplined as their French counterparts. Furthermore, these men knew the Italian terrain much better than the invaders, adding yet another powerful advantage. And then of course was the Holy Roman Emperor’s levies, who were not to be dismissed.

To the south, in Naples the picture was much more different. Naples had been having a very good century -relatively speaking- in contrast to most of the continent. Sure, the plague and other stresses did their damage, but by and large the rule was stability and (a decent amount of) prosperity. It should not come as a surprise that in this time of war, the Neapolitans managed to raise a fairly impressive army and march with little difficulty north. Unlike previous spats with the Papal states, this was a war of conquest, and it showed. Every fortress and every city was a target, and every bit of resistance was to be crushed with extreme force. With the bulk of Papal forces obviously north, there was little that could be done in the initial weeks of this invasion. When Papal forces shifted south (and these were primarily Papal forces- Bohemia and Tuscany and other were far more concerned with kicking the French out) they found a picture very different than the one that they left.

The holy city of Rome, and the broader region of Lazio, had fallen to the Schismatics.

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Back in the Roman Empire, the narrative left of with a turning point in the recent war. Rome had called in her age old ally of Bulgaria in the defense of the motherland after being effectively cut in half from her Asian possessions. Bulgaria agreed, her leadership seeing an easy means to expand and further centralize the state’s power by use of the so called “Carolingian strategy”: extensive conquest of new lands and marshaling of the nobility to provide openings for central state authority to expand. The Roman-Bulgar armies were ultimately successful in their attempt to smash the Genoese troops and relieve the siege of Constantinople- at a heavy cost. Genoa had paid for the best, and they delivered. The comparatively small professional forces of Rome and Bulgaria, and whatever marshaled levies that had been available at the time suffered heavily in attempting to wrest control of Thrace.

While the line had been broken, this didn’t mean Genoa was out of the game. Being that the Genoese had naval supremacy, they were successful in bailing out a decent remainder of their troops engaged in Constantinople via the fleet. Upon reaching the safety of the water, troops were sent to any Genoese controlled islands, where the army could safely lick their wounds and re-organize, returning to the front lines when necessary… until news from back home reached. There, the Genoese started to scramble, and pull their troops and fleet back out to confront the Savoyards.

This gave the Romans some breathing room, but plenty of damage had been done already. Much of Thrace had been plundered; the coast was still under partial blockade; the coastal cities had also suffered raids from the Genoese navy and the Asian provinces were under invasion from the newest horde.

Yet fresh from their victory at Constantinople imperial resolve hardened. And with it, the tide was turning. The army had been able to levy emergency taxes from all sectors of the empire, including the church to fund the restoration of the navy and link up with the east. Furthermore, when news reached that the former emperor Constantine had been found dead amongst those at the siege, any of his would be support evaporated. The people, for better or for worse, were rallying under their new regime against the Genoese and any would be collaborator. In practice, this meant the factions that may have been supporting Constantine could no longer do so, and it became politically impossible not to give allegiance to the military junta in Constantinople. Constantine had seared his legacy as a traitor, and anyone who could be associated with him would be branded one as well.

The empire was firmly under one rule again. While this seems very nice, one must note this didn’t actually amount to anything initially. The realities of exhaustion and logistics set in, and it was necessary to plan before acting. Therefore other than relaying messages to the eastern command, shipbuilding and rebuilding the army into a coherent force, not much was done in the aftermath of the 1412.

The East was a different story, of course. But the east has always been different. Despite being cut off from Constantinople, it chugged on satisfactorily, even in the face of the renewal of raids by Karaman forces. This was due in part in the ways Roman Asia had been set up. Learning from experience of the dark days of the Seljuq implosion, Roman Asia was allowed a greater amount of autonomy than other provinces, with a heavy emphasis on militia forces and settlement by yeoman farmers who could act as border guards until imperial forces could be deployed. The coastal cities and the fertile plains were of course, able to provide the state enough of a power base to support a rudimentary administration, and a healthy investment in fortifications never hurt anyone. All in all, the grand strategy was to make Anatolia hard to crack and able to take care of itself.

In the long term this might be a bad decision, where in which a rebellion from Anatolia might prove fatal to secession (along with generally being militarily stronger than the Balkan provinces), as of right now, this allowed the state to have a hands off approach when it came to dealing with cross border raids, an annoying yet inevitable reality following the influx of Turkmen tribes during the Mongol invasion of Anatolia.

Here in active wartime, this system had meant Anatolia was prepared for defense. Much like in the initial decades of the Arab expansion, raids were allowed into Roman territory. It was returning home that was the problem, as troops whittled down and harassed on the journey back home. Furthermore, the sheer amount of fortifications that needed to be taken, along with militia resistance, made the Karaman advance slow and painful. Do note, this did not mean the Romans could, (or wanted to for that matter) strike back into Anatolia. The army stationed in Anatolia at the time was under equipped [1] and her leaders too cautious to consider advancing until reinforcements arrived. Nor are militia forces good for offense. They might know their home terrain well, but not the enemy’s. Or be trained for that matter. Particularly against a largely light cavalry based army.

But that’s enough rambling.

Back to the matter at hand. That year the Romans did good, all things considered, and Genoa leaving allowed them to get the breather they needed. Of course, it also brought with it a split in the upper ranks on what to do: Should the Romans grow the navy once more, and drive the Italians out of their backyard in the Aegean? Or should they focus on the Turks and end the threat once and for all?

As befitting, they did both and accomplished less than expected.

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Romania immediately moved to broaden the war.

A portion of funds were taken to rebuild the dilapidated navy and train soldiers, while a large contingent of professional troops were shuffled to Anatolia with the intent of punishing the Turks. It is interesting to note that the Romans were able to remobilize much faster than their enemies expected here, as the cumulative experience of decades of naval actions began to show. In imitation of the Venetian arsenal (and thanks to Capital flight from Venice), the Romans had been experiencing with streamlining the system of construction of ships. Now this isn’t an assembly line system that was perfected in Venice, but an increasing shift towards increasing the efficiency in shipbuilding. This meant that after a few months, the Roman Navy was once more in decent shape (40 ish warships), and during this period had begun experimenting with mounting cannons on ships. But more on that later.

The actual war in Asia would go about as one would expect a mildly exhausted state to go. Initial victories over the next year followed by the enemy regrouping and inflicting a number of defeats on the Romans as they got further and further inland over a period of the next 3 years. And like many times before in the Empire’s history, the stalemate is ended with a boring, status quo antebellum the annoys everyone but the soldiers who fought. Yet it is worth noting that in this the Roman army was in a process of learning to blunt and counter the traditional enemy cavalry that had plagued them for decades.

In the Aegean, the war was a bit shorter, but ended no more satisfactory. Although Genoa was distracted due to matters at home in its dash to relieve the capital, the Genoese had such a large advantage in terms of numbers and equipment, the Imperials were quickly forced on the defensive on their home turf. However, the war was costly for both sides, and the Genoese were pragmatic enough to just throw in the towel and sue for peace in exchange for negotiating and reducing debt payments. Battered and bruised, Romania agreed.

The message here is clear to the Imperial Junta. That Rome, despite her successes, is simply not in the big leagues yet. The next decade might seem a quiet period of introspection, with on paper nothing really happening but idle raiding on the borderlands, but in reality Rome is retooling her military and gearing up for the next round of fighting. The militias are drilling, the professional core is expanding their arsenals, and the officers are brushing up on the art of war. With the empire once more back into the sway of the Military administration, the burgeoning Merchant Empire of the Renovation had swiftly returned back into the revanchist stratocracy of centuries past.

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To the West: Italy burns. Heresy and hegemony intertwine as France and the pretend Roman Empire battle for influence in heartland of Christendom. The winner will determine the fate of the Western Schism and the Pope’s place in Europe, both literally and physically.

Currently the sides were France her allies (Savoy and Naples) against the a coalition of minor Italian principalities (led by the not so minor Milan) and Bohemia, current crown of the so called Holy Roman Empire.

The wildcard here is Florence. Surrounded north and south by enemies off opposing sides, the Republic was initially against the Avignon forces. Initially. As news of Naples conquest of Rome, the entire situation had changed. The war was brought right to their backyard, and surrounded on multiple sides by opposing forces. Fearful of being caught in the crossfire, Florence acted to secure her independence: She decided to back the winning horse and hedge her bets on what appeared to be the winning team, in exchange for hopefully getting a cut of the future spoils. A delegation was secretly dispatched to the French encampment to negotiate the deal. The French eagerly accepted.

Florence’s betrayal would cement victory in Italy for the Avignon Papacy. The shift in balance altered the numerical balance of the forces, and the secret negotiations meant that Florence was able to a lure a large army of Papacy aligned Condottieri within the Papal states and systematically slaughter them with little effort. Following this, the Florentines were given free reign in Tuscany and the surrounding countryside. Siena and Lucca, with some Neapolitan support, fell to Florence. The Romagna degenerated into a number of bickering warlords. The news of Rome’s fall gave a new elan to the Avignon forces while simultaneously demoralizing the opposition, allowing France and Savoy to enact important, if very costly victories.

Peace returned in Italy in 1406. But this was a peace of exhaustion and bitterness, whereas in the east, the powers that be merely recognized the facts on the ground. Depending on who you asked, heresy had won, the balance of power in Italy was shattered, and the Pope was in permanent exile. The Pope of Rome now resided in Germany. Borders were redrawn, with Naples, Tuscany and Savoy the largest winners.

[1] Armies are expensive. Trying to both expand the army and navy over the decades meant something had to be cut, and Rhomania chose armor, horses and guns.

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What comes next in the immediate history of the empire is a period of quietness, followed by yet another shock that no one in the palace saw coming. The following decade and a half within Romania saw another shift in government, or more bluntly, another palace coup against the reactionary military dominated government.

In 1417, a bout of plague had broken out in Greece. The casualties weren’t much in overall population, but they did have an important victim: ruling emperor Manuel II (and his wife). Manuel had been a man of weak constitution and meekness, one more cut out to be a theologian than a politician and as such was unable to stand against the tide of an increasingly powerful and upset military. He was dominated effortlessly by his generals, hard men of high birth who seeked to return the empire into their vision of an idealized Roman Empire dominated by the military. A society of virtue and austerity, beholden to the Classical ideals which they viewed as having been corrupted by the past near century of greedy bureaucratic and naval dominance.

Ironically, they weren’t far off to the Classical Roman ideals, and were in some ways justified. The cultural shifts following the effective decapitation of the Dynatoi in the 1330s meant the court had been dominated primarily by middle class urbanites, who were viewed by the remnants of the traditional aristocracy as too decadent, too western looking and straying too from the traditional ways (in addition to just being salty from not being included in the patronage system). Yet they could not hope to challenge this while their lands were small, and the navy was the dominant military organ.

But as Rome recovered both economically and territorially, these old school landed families (and plenty of new men who joined the Dynatoi) were able to claw their way back into power via capitalizing on the new land. The government focus on urban areas and the navy meant that often the countryside was more often than not ignored, thus once more creating the conditions for an aristocracy, albeit one far weaker than it was a century ago.

Yet still, strong enough to take advantage of public outcry following the fiasco with Timur and install themselves as the dominant faction of government. For as Constantine XI was discredited for surrendering, so too was the faction in power- the commercial elites. However, with their puppet emperor now gone, this position became tenuous.The ruling sovereign was a child, and a girl at that. One Maria Palaiologina. Thus a regency would immediately have been declared.

But who was to head that regency, and thus the empire until the child came of age?

We have 3 main actors in this crisis, each more or less corresponding to a faction of imperial politics. The Dynatoi (represented by the army), the Bureaucracy (who for the sake of convenience will be labeled as that despite also including most of the navy and the imperial state companies), the Church and Bulgaria, who for obvious reasons has a keen interest in a Roman state that benefits them.

For the first and the 3rd, enter Constantine XI’s /other/ siblings- the previously unimportant Michael and Andreas. During the brief military domination, both of these men attempted to work around the limits imposed to them (as potential threats to the new regime were) by allying themselves with a powerful faction of the Roman Court. Michael with the bureaucracy and thus the commercial elites, and Andreas with the church.

The past 2 decades has not served either men kindly, but they were able to cling on to some semblance of influence among their respective sectors (and amongst the nobility, given that they still are members of the royal family and know quite a lot of important people) and keep their heads down. While an annoyance, there was not much the military junta could do, given their initial focus on dealing with war against the Italians and the Turks. But now that there was an opening they are eager to stake a claim on the imperial throne, and the two had to be monitored. However, the factions each of the men have decided to endorse causes a rift between the two that will never fully heal.

Representing the military and the magnates was no one person, given the group dynamic of both of these organizations (who were keen to fight amongst themselves just as much as the other court factions), but perhaps their ‘representative’ could best be thought of as Manuel II’s Mesazon (Prime Minister) Basil (who was given the nicknamed “the Spaniard”, for his family’s origin the formerly Catalan controlled principality. Despite not actually having known or probable ancestry from the Iberian peninsula. One of the funny quirks of history) Nonetheless, Basil was very much a standard landed Aristocrat in the mold of the day, and was pushing to keep the direction of the empire flowing to a more hardline, oligarchal stance.

Up north, we've got the new Bulgarian Tsar, Simeon, who is also technically of the Palaiologoi family through maternal descent and who possesses a considerable amount clout in internal affairs, considering it is his grain that more often than not feeds the cities of Rome. This has been another reason for the reaction against the Commerce oriented policies of the Renovation Period, as many traders are seen as too friendly to foreigners. His stance on things is to keep Rome as friendly and docile as possible, and thus the return to a more hardline approach back in the capital was perceived as a threat.

And last but not least, is the current Patriarch of Constantinople, Nicephorus III, representing a rejuvenated Orthodox Church that has issues with both the Military-Aristocratic Faction and the Middle Classes. The Church is a myriad of different voices, but generally they seem to take a middle ground in the land vs commerce dispute, viewing both as avarice. Here at least, Nicephorus mostly stays in the background, using Andreas as his liaison between the Church and the Empress, hoping to sway the next generation into a more pious, Christian ruler.

And so the 4 sides scramble to deal with the vacuum of power. The Bulgarians make the first overt moves, doing some saber rattling across the border and declaring young Maria is under the protection of her “uncle”, the Tsar. While in practice this means nothing, it does signal that any attempts against the Empresses’ life will not be taken kindly, possibly (though very unlikely) inciting military action that would most certainly spiral into civil war (given that a good faction of the Roman court would support the Bulgarians in restoring the pre Junta status quo).

Nobody wants this but especially not Basil the Spaniard. He knows the state’s strength is focused on Anatolia, and the Bulgarians have been growing far stronger than anyone wants to admit. Thus, he is forced to make hold off any attempts on installing a client in power- or himself- and keep the regency council at bay. This hesitation amongst the Military Faction allows the other factions, principally the Commercial one to make a de facto alliance with the Bulgarians, and politically strong arm the Military into allowing several representatives into the Regency Council, and as key players in the young Empresses life. Critically Andreas, who will serve as her main tutor.

This does not mean the military is out of power, but it does mean that they no longer hold the monopoly on who gets to control the empress. Basil remains Mesazon, but other key government positions now have to be divided amongst the varying factions. It’s a tightrope, but one he and his colleagues are willing to walk to get the best deal that ends in the least amount of Roman bloodshed. Of course, this is Eastern Rome. None of this happened without a few assassinations, excommunications and exiles, but the state avoided imploding into civil war, if at the cost of being somewhat paralyzed between its own factions.

And that’s a happy ending.

Political intrigue aside, there’s another noticeable event that is occurring in Romania in the decade of the 1410s- the introduction of the cannon into the military. Initially imported from Westerners, the Romans have been quick at work modifying and exporting the machinery for their own uses. Its an excellent anti seige and all around anti cavalry weapon, which makes it perfect for defending against the raiding of various nomads in the Anatolian frontier. Combined with the general military presence on the frontier beginning to adapt to nomadic tactics in the same vein as the Germans and the Magyars a few centuries earlier, raiding has become less and less profitable. The tide is slowly but surely turning in Anatolia, even if to contemporaries this doesn’t seem the case.

This is in turn replicated to the north, where Timur’s destruction of the Golden Horde and a number of weak remnant states has left a vacuum that is beginning to be filled by Muscovy. While at the time, Muscovy is still weak, the 1380s-1410s have allowed it to begin pushing south and enter regular contact with Byzantium. Again, not much considering the time, but the future will speak about the natural alliance between Rome and Russia.
 
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