Rebuplicans win the Spanish Civil War...

Now, this is possible. We used to disscuss this a lot with my History lecturer. The POD is slightly odd, but all shall be made apparent...

March 17th 1936: Hitler Enters the Rhineland with forces. France and Britain decided to presure Germany to withdraw, and threatens military action. Geramny retreats. (For those of you who say "But Hitler would never do that, he said afterwards, and it is quoted "If they had stood by their word (about militerisation of the Rhineland), i would have had to run like dog with its tail between its legs")

16th July 1936: Spanish Civil War Begins

20th July 1936: Franco Contacts the Facist governments In Germany and Italy. Hitler promise Money and diplomatic aid, but is reluctant to commit troops. As much as he bluffs, he can not risk another confrontation with Britain and France at this time, especially as the Rhineland incident has left him in a tender situation back at home. Mussolini, on the other hand, always the more foolhardy, promises troops, hopeing to increase Spain in to his Sphere of Influence. he still holds dreams of "Mare Nostrum" (Our sea)

27th July 1936: First Italian troops arrive.

27th September 1936: Toledo Captured by Nationalists

October-November 1936: First Madrid Offensive fails

December 1936: Seeing a chance to Increase their own influence, Russia increases the ammount of support its sending to spain. Troops are shipped in, and land in the north. Much need Arms and Supplies are provided. Russia argues that it is "Merely counter balancing Italy"

January-Febuary 1937: Second Madrid Offensive, despite the pressance of the Italians, fails.

Febuary 1937: Germany France Britain, Italy and Russia, all sign an agreement to limit "Volunteers". Russia and Italy widely flaunt the agreement. France limits the number of their volunteers, but contiues to give finicial support to the Rebublicans, as does Britain. Germany contiues to support the Nationalists.

March 1937: Seeing a weakness in the North, Franco moves into Basque land. Without German Support though Geurnica is not bombed, and instead there is protracted fighting in the area, stalling the nationalist advance. Russians move troops down to help in combat. Protracted fighting goes on in this region for some while.

July 1937: Rebuplican Offensive. Bilbao is held from republican attacks. Sergovina is captured, pulling Francos forces away from Madrid. A second attack is lauched in the Madrid Area, it becomes know as the Battle of Brunete. Government forces, With immense difficulty, puch nationlist back towards the west, and south. Parts of the nationlist army are surrounded in the north. Cut off from their support in the south, The Nationalists attempt to break though, but only just manage. Casulties are high on both sides.

September 1937: Franco, still reeling from the Reblublican Offensive, counter attacks on a new front. Forces push from the south, north along the coast towards Valencia, a Government strong hold. With fresh Italian troops, and limited Naval Support, it is hoped that they can break the Rebuplicans along the coast. Heavy fighting continues for months.

Early January 1938: Italian ships and submarines patroling the Balerics, fire on a british ship they claimed was giving aid to the Republicans. Britain Issues a stern warning, backed by france, to stop meddling in Spains affairs. Italy claims that these troops are meerly Volunteers, and therefore has no control over them. France and Britains relationship with Italy remains tense. Mussolini beligerance is tiring on them, especially owing to claims he has made on Seuz.

July-November 1938: The Autum offensive. A combined offensive from Madrid, the north, and along the coast hopes to finally have the nationalists on the run. The attack goes well in the West, With the government taking Salamanca, and pushing far south, down to the outskirts of Sevile. Toledo Is retaken, but nationalists stall the advance to south of madrid. In the east, Nationalist hold fast, but contiued pressure is forced upon them. The war looks set to drag.

Febuary 1939: The republican sneak attack by landing troops behind Nationalist lines along the coast, helped in no small part by Russian forces. They come in direct confritation with Italian troops. Surprised, and cut of from there support, Are forced to withdraw to the west, in the hope of rejoining the main forces. The Reblican forces start to advance along the coast

March 1939: Nationlist in complete retreat. Cartega taken, as forces race along the coast. Italy calls much of its Volunteers back. Franco left on his own. Nationlist stall for cease fire.

26th March 1939: Cease fire signed. Franco attempts to flee back to
Morroco, but is ambushed by communist Forces, and is executing, along with his traveling guard. All Nationlist forces stand down.

Okay, how was that? One question: The Rebuplican government in Spain was always more for Catalan and Basque before the Civil war. Are they likely to get more Automy? Independance? it was those regions after all that gave the most troops to the Rebuplican side? Any ideas?
 
Considering that the Republican regime started out by failing to win the constitutionally required runoff election and instead seizing power, and in most of the war was dominated by communist extremists who often seemed to spend far more time murdering and betraying their allies, especially the anarcho-syndicalists, I wouldn't have much hope for thing going very well.

On the positive side, the Stalinist regime won't be in power for too long. After all, Hitler will conquer France, lose the Battle of Britain, then see the chance to kill two birds at one stone. Spain AND Gibralter.:(
 
Look up a Cartoon by British Political cartoonist, at the time David Low. its called "Seeing Red". I think its appropiate.... ;)
 
I think the British and their very large Navy would have something to say about Soviet armies being transported to Spain. The main reason the British were less anti-Nazi than they ought to have been is that they weren't sure whether or not Bolshevism or Nazism was the lesser evil.

Soviet forces being sent to Spain would have set the alarm buttons going all over Britain and I think the Brits would have prevented the landings, forcibly.

Other than that, the timeline's beginning is good.
 
MerryPrankster said:
I think the British and their very large Navy would have something to say about Soviet armies being transported to Spain. The main reason the British were less anti-Nazi than they ought to have been is that they weren't sure whether or not Bolshevism or Nazism was the lesser evil.

Soviet forces being sent to Spain would have set the alarm buttons going all over Britain and I think the Brits would have prevented the landings, forcibly.

Other than that, the timeline's beginning is good.

Umm, you do forget than in the orginal timeline nearly 5,000 soviet troops were shipped to Spain anyway. Its not to unreasonable to double that, its just requires a bit of logistics.

And thanks for the compliment :D
 
Mort said:
Umm, you do forget than in the orginal timeline nearly 5,000 soviet troops were shipped to Spain anyway. Its not to unreasonable to double that, its just requires a bit of logistics.

And thanks for the compliment :D

5000 actual Red Army soldiers were shipped to Spain? Not just "volunteers" but actual fighting units?

I've never heard of that before.

Even if the 5000 did not stir Britain's hackles (esp. if they were sent a little at a time), 10,000 would be more noticeable.

And the Brits' neutrality had a did have a distinctly pro-Franco bent to it, I've heard.
 
MerryPrankster said:
5000 actual Red Army soldiers were shipped to Spain? Not just "volunteers" but actual fighting units?

I've never heard of that before.

Even if the 5000 did not stir Britain's hackles (esp. if they were sent a little at a time), 10,000 would be more noticeable.

And the Brits' neutrality had a did have a distinctly pro-Franco bent to it, I've heard.

Wel, it was a funny thing, that entire German Air divisons "Volunteered" along with feul and maintainece crews (As well as planes....) or an entire Russia Tank divison "Volunteered", all at once, with there tanks. It was a pretty meaningless word when applied to Spain....

British Neutrality wasnt Pro-franco. it was odd, and non-confrontational. Basically, "we know that Germany and Italy and Russia are doing bad things, but were not going to say any thing, cos that might start a war, and war is bad". But, my POD suggest Briatin and France got a bit more of a spine, so While they might not be particually for communism, they definatly wernt Pro-Franco. They really would of liked a Rebublic, so if it looked like they were winning, i could see Britain and France suddenly sitting up and taking notice.
 
And when the Communists start to purge the other "comrades", what are britain and France going to do?
One reason for the defeat of the republicans was that their infighting never stopped, even during the worst of the war. I would imagine that after a victory it would become worse.
 
Yeah, but what im getting at is that it is possible, and it would have a major effect on the immediate future of the world. WW2 anybody? What im saying is not wether or not communism Should or would succeed, but what happens when the side that it backed did?

Seriously, and i kid you not, Look up David Low, And a cartoon called "Seeing Red". You'll see where im coming from.
 
Your POD is quite possible.
In this TL, the Russians effectively win the Spanish civil war, and get most of the kudo. I wonder if stalin goes forward with the purge of the red army: maybe his political success makes this unnecessary, maybe not.
Germans and Italians do not perform very well: Hitler has to eat humble pie in the Saar, and afterwards his support to Franco in not even comparable to OTL. Mussolini gets a slap in the face: Italian intervention (which i assume similar to OTL) does not succeed in a Falangist victory, and the net result is a "red" state in the west; there is the incident with the British ship, and, I suppose, there is no intervention in Albania in TTL.
France and Britain get a mixed bag: the Saar business is clearly a success, and has effectively stopped (for the moment) Hitler's calendar. OTOH, Stalin's performance in Spain has taken a bit of wind from their sails.
IMHO, a Munich agreement becomes almost unthinkable in TTL; at the same time, the Winter War might happen earlier than in OTL (Stalin is riding high, and, as I said, maybe there has been no army purge). Shall we say that Russian troops force the Finnish border exactly 1 year earlier than OTL?

This event would transform Uncle Joe in bugbear #1 for the Franco-British, and the nazi would look much more nice.

While Finland can get western supplies (via Norway and Sweden) it would be quite difficult to send more than naval support there (provided that Danish and Germans are agreable, btw. It would be funny if the quid-pro-quo to avoid a Russo-German entente were the re-militarization of the Saar, full circle and back to the original POD.

What do you think?
 
MerryPrankster said:
5000 actual Red Army soldiers were shipped to Spain? Not just "volunteers" but actual fighting units?

I've never heard of that before.

Even if the 5000 did not stir Britain's hackles (esp. if they were sent a little at a time), 10,000 would be more noticeable.

And the Brits' neutrality had a did have a distinctly pro-Franco bent to it, I've heard.

Planes, tanks, guns, ammunition, etc were shipped to Spain by Moscow along with crews and advisors (including the tank general Pavlov). The Comintern organized the legions of volunteers from around the world into the International Brigades. Soviet T26 tanks were the most effective amoured vehicles of the civil war while Russian made fighters held air superiority over Madrid for a lot of the war.

Britain certainly did not care for the Republic but they did favour Franco because their blockade disadvantaged the government. The US too by its embargo of oil and munitions favoured the nationalists.

I am not sure 5000 more Red Army volunteers would have made much difference except to allow Hitler and Mussolini to up the ante. Neither Britain nor France (who did nothing to annoy the British at this stage) would have done much to prevent German and Italian reinforcements.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Interesting TL. I've occasionally wondered what would happen if the Spanish civil war was still being fought by September 1939 (and became another front in the wider world war), but to have the Republicans win by March 1939 is also a promising possibility. Which side Spain will take come WW2 will depend on a number of factors; if the moderates manage to keep the Communists under control, it will likely join the French and British, if only to preempt being invaded itself. If, OTOH, the Communists successfully take over from the other leftist factions, Spain will align itself on the USSR and consider itself bound by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact--until, of course, Operation Barbarossa begins.
 
It would really depend on how and when republicans win. If they win early Azaña might be able to keep out the communists and restore a western-style democracy in Spain. In that case, when the nazis roll over, Spain will fall after France, and so will Gibraltar. Maybe Hitler would have a better chance than in OTL.
If the republicans win only thanks to a massive soviet aid, things are more complicated. As has been said, London might see Staln as the danger number one and let Hitler get Poland. Then UK and France would sit and watch a German-Soviet war while rearming. France might be still more afraid of war after the german-soviet pact in 1939, with soviet spanish in her rear, and do nothing about Poland. Without France, the british don't go to war.

The republicans could have won. My favourite POD is the Brunete offensive, in 1938. They had soviet tanks, air parity and a lot of soldiers, and achieved parcial surprise. If the offensive had been a bit better coordinated and planned -specially coordination between tanks and infantry- the war could have changed dramatically and, if not been won, at least last until WWII came.
 
If the Allies don't let Hitler into the Rhineland, everything in the future becomes questionable - Anschluss of Austria, the Sudetenland, occupation of Czechoslovakia, the Memelland, winning against Poland, Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium, France, so why are you so sure he'd conquer Spain like nothing? And even if he does: Remember what happened to Napoleon in Spain...

Oh, and @Grimm: I'd like to read an objective source for your claims.
 
Max, start with Homage to Catalonia by George Orwell, who actually served on the Republican side. Then anything by Paul Johnson on the history of the Spanish Civil War.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Grimm Reaper said:
Max, start with Homage to Catalonia by George Orwell, who actually served on the Republican side. Then anything by Paul Johnson on the history of the Spanish Civil War.
Also, a good movie about the Spanish civil war is "Land and Freedom" by Ken Loach, which shows the infighting within the Republican side between the Anarchists and the Communists.
 
You got to renember, like everything, that at the time all these movies and books were being made, Communism, anarchism, and Fasiscm probably werent great things to show in a fair and impartial light.... I geussing that maybe, just maybe, some of these books, might be a little biased...

Now im not saying the Communists were perfect, or the fascists or anyone, but bear in mind that a lot of the literary that arose from this war was latter questioned for validity...
 
Even if Hitler is in Spain they'd fight like mean bastards to get him out. This keeps Hitler, or Mussolini (who I'm sure wants Spain even more) from doing much effectively. Thats yet anouther occupying force they'd have to spare. The Axis is starting to get spread pretty thin...
 
Well isn't that just spiffy? So Hitler takes the time to finish Spain, which won't take too long and it is absolutely certain that the Nazis are welcomed by everyone not on the Republican side and many who were but not on the winning faction. Then Gibralter and perhaps he finishes his restructuring of the German armed forces to break the British BEFORE going after Stalin.

I don't like where this is going.
 
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